Vetra Vilnius vs Fulham

Posted on July 29, 2009 by Ian

Today’s featured game is between surprise package Vetra Vilnius and European newcomers Fulham. With the English Premier League being familiar to millions worldwide, I don’t really feel a proper introduction to Fulham is particularly necessary. What I will say, however, is that Roy Hodgson is one of the best managers they’ve had for some years now and he’s got his squad very efficient and organised with the right mixture of individual talent, pace and strength. Vetra Vilnius may be unknown to most of you but they caused a bit of a stir in the last round by beating the favourites for their game – HJK Helsinki. The Finns had won 1-0 in Vilnius before surprisingly succumbing to a 3-1 home defeat to crash out of the competition. Roy Hodgson may be a little disappointed; he spent a lot of time at the Finnair Stadium when in charge of Finland will know the pitch and HJK Helsinki’s players well. However, he takes his squad slightly south of Finland to Lithuania to take on minnows Vetra Vilnius. There’s no doubt to anyone with a vague grasp of football that Fulham have the better squad but their lack of competitive games and their relatively inexperienced European side makes this game a little dubious for the handicap. However, I do recommend taking it – they’re more than capable of breaking it and at 7/5 it’d be a shame to miss out on it. I can’t see Vetra Vilnius being able to score in this game barring a horrendous error of some kind – they’re just not that good. Their result in Finland was admirable but fortunate – 9 times out of 10 they’d have been dumped out of the competition. 7/5 does look very intriguing for this game!

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Vetra Vilnius vs Fulham – away win with -1.75 handicap – see introduction for full details.

Tromso vs Slaven Koprivnica – home win at 10/11. Tromso are a very good home side and Slaven Koprivnica aren’t good travellers – no great secret here! The leagues are about on par with each other. In fact, the squads probably just about match each other and the sides arguably reflect each other in their respective leagues. However, the Croatians are travelling to the most northern Premier League side in Europe. Even Norwegian clubs find it tough to make the long trip north; Slaven Koprivnica are going to have a horrendous time here, particularly in what is expected to be a rainy Norwegian night in temperatures that will be relatively unfamiliar to them. Tromso’s weakness tends to be their inability to defend but you can’t fault their goalscoring at home generally so a home win here looks good value at 10/11.

Aberdeen vs Sigma Olomouc – away win, draw no bet at 11/8. I’m not a big advocate of Sigma Olomouc because they tend to disappoint me when I back them. However, they’re playing a poor European side and really must fancy their chances of winning this game here. Aberdeen are generally good at home domestically so they won’t make this easy for the Czechs, which is why I’d take this bet at draw no bet. However, if a side had to win this game, I’d say Sigma Olomouc would win it before Aberdeen so it is worth a flutter at 11/8.

Metalurg Donetsk vs Interblock Ljubljana – home win with -1.75 handicap. This is one of the easier calls of the day, which no doubt means it won’t come in!! The Ukrainian side Metalurg Donetsk have ruffled a lot of feathers over the past couple of seasons with some impressive displays. It’ll be interesting to see how they do in Europe if they progress from this tie, which they really should. There’s no doubt they’re too good for their visitors today as well as playing in a better league. Both leagues have only just started so neither side has an advantage of competitive games over the other. Interblock Ljubljana can be a good side on occasions but last season showed just how rarely that occurs for them. I think taking a home win with -1.75 handicap should be profitable but I wouldn’t be surprised if Metalurg Donetsk took it even further – they’re more than capable and Interblock Ljubljana don’t have enough to stop them.

Vaduz vs Slovan Liberec – away win at 10/11. Little Vaduz of Liechtenstein are the side with the easiest path to European football ever playing host to Czech heavyweights Slovan Liberec. The hosts are only here because they played out a droll tie with Falkirk of Scotland and managed to emerge victorious. However, today they’re facing a side with actual ability and I can’t see them being able to withstand it. All that counts in their favour is that they’re pretty decent at home but I’d be surprised if this didn’t turn out to be an away win and at 10/11 it could well be the bargain of the day.

Steaua Bucharest vs Motherwell – home win with -1.75 handicap. The Romanian giants Steaua Bucharest disappointed me last season by selling Radoi, by becoming unreliable and because of their troubles off the pitch. This season they appear rejuvenated. A convincing and impressive dual win against a rising Ujpest squad from Hungary did much to restore my faith in them because the Hungarians are no pushovers. The once European Cup winners are playing host to a poor Motherwell side that should be frankly played off the park. They staggered past little Llanelli of Wales last round and the fact that they’ve employed a new manager that failed to achieve success in the English Championship shows just how low Scottish football is getting. I can’t see anything other than a convincing home win here unless Motherwell strike lucky by parking the bus in front of the goal so take whatever odds you can find for a home win with -1.75 handicap.

Slavija Istocno Sarajevo vs MFK Kosice – home win at evens. These odds are fantastic when you consider that sides from Bosnia-Herzegovina are possibly the biggest advocates of home form in the whole of Europe. Away wins in their domestic league are virtually illegal given how rare they are! Slavija Istocno Sarajevo are one of the current heavyweights in this country and know they have to make their home advantage count. MFK Kosice haven’t been in Europe for some years now if my memory serves me correctly. They weren’t very good when they last were either! They’re a decent side from the Corgon Liga but I wouldn’t go further than that. I think it’s fair to say that they’re here today due to other sides not performing as they should domestically as opposed to purely via their own merit. I’m not sure who will qualify out of these two sides; I think it will purely come down to who scores the most goals at home as I expect two home wins. However, that’s a discussion for another time; my call is home win at evens and it should come in.

Helsingborgs vs FK Sarajevo – home win with -1.75 handicap. As I mentioned in my previous preview, Bosnia-Herzegovina sides are tremendous at home but abysmal away from home. Helsingborgs must surely eagerly anticipate this game because they really enjoy conceding stupid goals at home and making life hard for themselves. I don’t forsee the Bosnians getting out of their own half for much of this game in a hope they’ll beat the crazy Swedes in the return leg. I think the hosts should have too much class for their opponents to compete with today so I expect a comfortable home win that surpasses the handicap. However, in typical Helsingborgs fashion, I can see them conceding a really stupid goal at somepoint so it might be worth a cheeky punt on both sides to score. Ultimately, this game should finish 3-1 or 4-1.

Sporting Braga vs Elfsborg Boras – under 2.5 goals. This is an interesting game but not so much in a footballing spectable. Braga are relatively infamous for being an efficient Portuguese side, something there are very few of. They like to win 1-0 or 2-0 generally. Elfsborg Boras are arguably the best side in Sweden but will have the work cut out tonight, particularly after a nervy encounter with Djurgardens in the Allsvenskan before heading out to Portugal. The visitors, like most Swedish sides, aren’t great on the road. I think they’ll consider a draw pretty much a success here. Braga is a difficult side for most sides to go to, particularly when they’re the better side! What counts against them is their lack of competitive experience thus far this season whereas the Swedes are mid-season. I do expect a narrow home win but I could also see a low-scoring draw so my call is under 2.5 goals at whatever odds you can get them at.

Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro – home win at evens. There’s always one side that punches above their weight in a domestic campaign before tumbling down the table in the second half of the season. Atletico Mineiro are this side. Flamengo are a better side and their win last match should have done wonders for their confidence entering this game. Atletico Mineiro endured a disheartening defeat at home to high-flying Goias without even scoring a goal and it could well be the start of their lengthy descent down the table. I fancy a good home win here and at evens it’s certainly worth a punt.

Sao Paulo vs Gremio - home win at 3/4. I almost can’t believe I’m recommending this, but here goes! Sao Paulo have had a difficult start to the campaign and are generally having issues scoring goals. However, two wins and a draw from their past three games has seen them finally accumulate some kind of form as they begin to climb the table. Gremio are very much a “Jekyll and Hyde” side, claiming some invaluable home wins but with the worst away record in their division with just one point from a potential eighteen. All this spells out a home win and 3/4 is surprisingly good odds for this. However, do approach with caution because both sides are big sides and are capable of playing good football should they feel the urge to do so.

Avai vs Vitoria – home win at 5/4. This is my third recommended Brazilian home win – something has to go wrong, surely?! Haha. Anyway, Avai are bewildering even the most tolerant tipsters, including myself, with four straight wins, some of them being very impressive. They’re not good enough to maintain this for the season but part of being a tipster is riding the wave. Vitoria have been “riding the wave” this season but still can’t find their feet on the road. Taking on an in-form Avai side today could prove too much for them. They’re not great home or away – they’re just a tough side to play against on their day and at the moment they’re getting results. Their biggest winning characteristic is that they’ve only conceded two goals from their past four games. A Vitoria side that score less than a goal per game on average on the road may just find this a tough game. At 5/4, it certainly seems worth a punt although I must emphasise that this is the riskiest of the three Brazilian home wins I’ve recommended today in case you were wondering!

Malmo vs AIK Solna - away win with draw no bet. Hosts Malmo are unpredictable at the best of times as they possess some talent but seem to only show it fleetingly. Unfortunately, they showed it last game, which has shrouded this game in a bit of mist for me. In fact, it’s done the same for the bookies who now favour a home win over an away win despite AIK Solna’s highly impressive away form in the Allsvenskan this season. Malmo have only been defeated once at home this season so this is certainly a risky call which is why I recommend taking the away win with draw no bet at whatever odds you can find them at.

Syrianska Sodertalje vs Atvidabergs - away win at 13/8. Atvidabergs’ unbelievable run has to end at somepoint. However, I don’t think it will be today! Syrianska Sodetalje are enjoying some decent form of late and possess a decent home record. However, Atvidabergs are beating everyone and everything out of sight lately and I can only ride the wave with this one. I’m surprised the bookies have given such good odds on an away win here but I’m happy to take advantage of it because the hosts simply aren’t good enough to contain a fluent and freescoring Atvidabergs.

As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!

UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Red Star Belgrade (7) under 2.5 goals
OFK Petrovac vs Sturm Graz (8) 1-3
Rabotnicki Skopje vs OB Odense (7) 1-2
FC Honka Espoo vs Karabakh Agdam (8) -1.75 handicap
Maccabi Netanya vs Galatasaray (6) 1-1
Fredrikstad vs Lech Poznan (5) 1-1
IFK Goteborg vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (7) 2-0
Velerenga Oslo vs PAOK Salonika (7) 0-0
Tromso vs Slaven Koprivnica (7) 2-1
Brondby vs Legia Warsaw (7) 2-0
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Austria Vienna (6) 2-1, draw no bet
Vetra Vilnius vs Fulham (8) 0-2
Metalurg Donetsk vs Interblock Ljubljana (8) -1.75 handicap
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City (5) 1-1
Rapid Vienna vs APOP Kinyras Peyias (9) -2.75 handicap
MSK Zilina vs Hajduk Split (6) 1-1
Vaduz vs Slovan Liberec (7) 1-2
Steaua Bucharest vs Motherwell (8) -1.75 handicap
Vaslui vs Omonia Nicosia (6) 1-1
Polonia Warsaw vs NAC Breda (6) 1-2
Slavija Istocno Sarajevo vs MFK Kosice (8) 2-1
Randers vs Hamburger SV (7) 1-3
Club Brugge vs FC Lahti (8) 3-1
AS Roma vs AA Gent (8) -1.75 handicap
PSV Eindhoven vs Cherno More Varna (7) 2-1, recommend no handicaps
St Patrick’s Athletic vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (5) 0-0
Fenerbahce vs Budapest Honved (8) 2-1
Helsingborgs vs FK Sarajevo (9) -1.75 handicap, both sides to score
Aberdeen vs Sigma Olomouc (5) 0-1, draw no bet
FK Sevojno vs LOSC Lille (8) 0-1
Rijeka vs Metalist Kharkiv (6) 1-1
KR Reykjavik vs Basel (8) 1-2
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Young Boys Bern (8) -1.75 handicap
Sporting Braga vs Elfsborg Boras (7) 1-0

Brazilian Serie A:

Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro (6) 2-1
Sao Paulo vs Gremio (8) 2-1
Avai vs Vitoria (7) 1-0

Latvian Virsliga:

Tranzits Ventspils vs Dinaburg Daugavpils (7) 1-2

Mexican Primera Division:

San Luis vs America (7) 1-1

Singaporean S-League:

Woodlands vs Sengkang Punggol (7) 2-1
Albirex Niigate vs Tampines Rovers (7) 1-1

Swedish Allsvenskan:

Malmo vs AIK Solna (6) 1-2, draw no bet

Swedish Superettan:

Syrianska Sodertalje vs Atvidabergs (8)

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Ventspils vs BATE Borisov

Posted on July 28, 2009 by Ian

I could not believe my eyes when I saw the odds on BATE Borisov to overcome FK Ventspils in Latvia for the first leg of their UEFA Champions League Qualifier. They’re at an amazing 6/5! We’re talking about a side from Belarus that is more than capable of being good enough to compete in the Russian Premier League. They’re travelling to play a side that would struggle to cope in the Russian Division One. BATE Borisov can now be considered an experienced European opponent and not only do they possess that but also grit and talent. I mean, FK Ventspils aren’t going to make this game easy for their opponents; of course they won’t. However, they’re about par with Makedonija Gjorce Petrov Skopje, the side that BATE Borisov comfortably disposed of last round in both legs. I honestly expect the exact same thing to occur again. I wouldn’t be surprised to see BATE Borisov break down the handicap barrier today – 6/5 is an absolute steal!

Wednesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Ventspils vs BATE Borisov - away win at 6/5 – see introduction for full details.

Levadia Tallinn vs Debreceni VSC - away win at 8/5. I must emphasise that people take advantage of these odds because they won’t appear again if what I think is going to happen does happen. Levadia Tallinn claimed a heroic victory over Wisla Krakow of Poland last round, a side they by all rights shouldn’t have even been able to score against. However, the Poles had their own issues both on and off the pitch and were abysmal in both legs. Debreceni VSC, however, played well enough to overcome Sweden’s Kalmar with some good football. I’ve been impressed with the Hungarians these last couple of years as they’re starting to become a bit of a force again. However, I just can’t fathom why the bookies rate an away win as such an unlikely prospect. The Hungarian Soproni Liga is ten times better than the Estonian Meistriliiga, I assure you! I cannot grasp any other result occurring today than an away win – Debreceni VSC should absolutely walk this and should in the return leg too!

Palmeiras vs Fluminense - home win with -1.75 goal handicap. After an emphatic win at the fortress of Corinthians last match, Palmeiras are more than well equipped to annihlate a Fluminense side that is rapidly in freefall. The hosts average scoring just under two goals per game and the visitors echo that record with goals conceded. Fluminense have lost four out of six away games this season and have lost four from their last five games. The hosts have won four games from five of their last games. The hosts have the incentive, the goalscoring, the form, the momentum and the opportunity to lay waste to Fluminense and I’ll be surprised if they don’t break the -1.75 goal handicap barrier.

Slovan Bratislava vs Olympiakos Piraeus – away win at 10/11. These odds emphasise the caution of the bookies for this game. On paper, Olympiakos Piraeus will walk this and I’ll be surprised if that doesn’t occur. They’ve not played a competitive game yet this campaign, however, so I’d stay away from handicaps. I’ve been impressed with Slovan Bratislava over the past year or two as they’ve become a real force in Slovakia again. However, the Greeks should have too much class and experience for the Slovaks to get a foot in. The only way I can see this not being an away win is if the Greeks fail to score (which is a rarity in itself) or via a poor refereeing decision.

FC Copenhagen vs Stabaek - home win with -1.75 handicap at 7/5. The Danes have been absolutely impeccable so far this season in my opinion. For example, take their encounter with Mogren Budva in the previous round. The Montenegrins are new to Europe, fair enough – that can account for their 6-0 defeat in Denmark for the first leg. After that, however, the Danes travelled to a hostile ground with little motivation as the tie was over and won 6-0 again! Their general performances and ability to score goals has increased dramatically these past couple of years and I rather like the look of them beating the handicap here. Stabaek are a funny side – most Norwegian sides are in Europe – as they can be good when it’s least expected. However, their big weakness is their away games and strength is their home games. I can’t see them getting anything here and I expect a relatively comfortable home win.

Atlantis FC Helsinki vs PK 35 Helsinki - away win at 4/5. These odds are too good to pass up on. Eternally relegation-battling Atlantis FC Helsinki entertain in-form PK 35 Helsinki. The hosts appear to finally be destined for the division below as they’re currently bottom of the table with a demoralising ten defeats from thirteen games. In that time span, they’ve managed just one victory. They’ve lost countless games on the bounce and as they entertain a side that have won two on the bounce and have a good away record, you can only expect an away win here.

Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Sibir Novosibirsk – home win at 10/11. This is one of my risky bets of the day being as there’s little between these two sides in terms of ability and form. However, Yekaterinburg isn’t an easy place to go and play football. Sibir Novosibirsk know that – they’ve not won here the last three times they’ve been here. In fact, they’ve lost two and drawn once in their past three trips. In addition to that, they’ve not even scored on their last two trips here. For that reason, I do fancy a cheeky punt on a home win, particularly with inviting odds like 11/10.

Anzhi Makhachkala vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz - home win at 10/11. These are yet more generous odds on the Russian Division One. Again, however, this is another risky call. Anzhi Makhachkala and Alaniya Vladikavkaz don’t have much between them in terms of quality but both sides are impeccable home sides. Anzhi Makhachkala boast an impressive record of eight wins and one draw from their nine home games this season. Their visitors may be the best away side in the division but the amount of games they’ve won away from home is just four from nine. The most daunting fact that faces Alaniya Vladikavkaz is that Anzhi Makhachkala have only conceded two goals at home this season. That’s an average of just over one goal every four games. The visitors will most likely be afraid of falling behind and rightfully so. I’m feeling the vibes for a home win here and I’d jump on a home win if the home side take the lead if you can find good odds on it!

FK Krasnodor vs Baltika Kaliningrad – away win at 2/1. This has to be riskiest call of the day. Again, there’s not a lot between these two sides but there’s one very interesting fact here – FK Krasnodor are much better away from home than they are at home. The hosts have only won a meager two games from their opening nine home games, losing a shameful five of those games. Baltika Kaliningrad have a good away record with four wins from nine games and enter the game on the back of three straight wins. The hosts were on a good run but have lost and drawn their last two games. I think the bookies are giving very generous odds on an away win here and I’m certainly tempted to take them – it’s very much a possible away win here.

As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!

UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:

Ventspils vs BATE Borisov (8) 0-2
Levadia Tallinn vs Debreceni VSC (7) 1-3
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Poli Timisoara (8) 3-1
APOEL Nicosia vs Partizan Belgrade (4) 1-1
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Slavia Prague (5) 0-0
Slovan Bratislava vs Olympiakos Piraeus (7) 1-2
FC Zurich vs Maribor (8) 2-0
FC Copenhagen vs Stabaek (8) 2-0
Salzburg vs Dinamo Zagreb (7) 2-1
Celtic vs Dinamo Moscow (6) 1-0
Sporting Clube de Lisbon vs Twente (6) 2-1

Brazilian Serie A:

Coritiba vs Botafogo (7) over 2.5 goals
Nautico vs Santos (4) 1-1
Goias vs Atletico Paranaense (8) 2-0
Internacional vs Gremio Barueri (7) 2-1
Santo Andre vs Corinthians (6) under 2.5 goals
Palmeiras vs Fluminense (9) -1.75 handicap
Cruzeiro vs Sport Recife (8) 2-0

Finnish Ykkonen:

Atlantis FC Helsinki vs PK 35 Helsinki (8)

Moldovan Divizia Nationala:

Viitorul vs Dacia Chisinau (8) 0-2
Zimbru Chisinau vs Iskra-Stal (7) 2-1

Norwegian Adeccoligaen:

Alta vs Lov-Ham Bergen (6) under 2.5 goals

Russian Division One:

FK Chita vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (7)
NoSta Novotroitsk vs Vityaz Podolsk (6)
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Sibir Novosibirsk (6)
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (7)
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs Salyut Belgorod (6)
Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod vs Metallurg Lipetsk (6)
Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan vs FK Nizhnyi Novgorod (6)
Cherno Novorosisk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ (8)
FK Krasnodor vs Baltika Kaliningrad (5)