VFL Wolfsburg vs Rubin Kazan

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Again – not going near the Europa League where I can help it tonight. I quite fancy Juventus to steal a win at Fulham even though they don’t need to and Standard to overcome Panathinaikos even though they don’t have to but there’s not enough to substantiate it in my book.

Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between VFL Wolfsburg and Rubin Kazan. Yep, it’s the exact same one as I predicted last week although hopefully more accurate this time! Wolfsburg lead the tie on away goals following a 1-1 draw in Russia and should be able to finish off the Russian champions tonight.

Wolfsburg have been in inspired form since appointing a new manager and appear dead set on making up on all the goals that they’ve missed out during a disappointing campaign. Wolfsburg have now notched up fourteen goals in their last five games in all competitions – an average of nearly three per game – whilst winning four times and drawing once. Wolfsburg flattened Spain’s Villarreal 4-1 in their last UEFA Europa League home game to emphasise just what they can do on their day. Wolfsburg have played well in all of their games of late and bring great momentum into this game as a result. I was highly impressed to see them draw in Russia, which is a tough away game for any side, so I think they’ll be able to use their momentum to finish off the Russian champions tonight.

Rubin Kazan are sound tactically but lack in goals, something they’re going to need tonight. Rubin will cause Wolfsburg problems but I can’t see them having the firepower to do significant damage in Germany tonight. Aside from their shock win at the Nou Camp against Barcelona, Rubin Kazan have disappointed on the road with emphatic defeats against Internazionale and Dynamo Kiev in the UEFA Champions League before drawing 0-0 in Israel with Hapoel Tel-Aviv. It’s well-known that Russian sides don’t travel well and this Russian side hinges their success upon their tactical supremacy, something they may be forced to abandon tonight if goals aren’t going their way as they have to score at least one tonight – probably more if you consider Wolfsburg’s high level of potency currently!

I think the bookies have under-priced Wolfsburg a little although this is the Europa League so frankly nothing would surprise me really! However, Wolfsburg are scoring a lot of goals and Rubin Kazan don’t score a lot of goals as a rule anyway so the Germans edge the potency front. I don’t like going against Rubin Kazan unless they have to attack as that brings them out of their defensive mentality and makes them vulnerable. With the proviso that the Russians don’t get an early goal in Germany tonight, Wolfsburg should win this one with some ease

Verdict: VFL Wolfsburg to win at 4/5.

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Unirea Urziceni vs Otelul Galati – lay Unirea Urziceni at 5/4.

I can’t quite fathom why the bookies are giving 8/15 on a home win in this game. That’s what has awakened my interest, really! Unirea Urziceni may be the current champions of Romania but they’ve rarely played like it this season and are yet to win a game following their return from the winter break. The four games that they’ve played domestically since their return have been difficult ones, that I will say, but they’ve lost once and drawn three times so confidence is far from peaking at the moment. They’ve lost at home to CFR Cluj and drawn at home to Steaua Bucharest during that time so I think it’s a fair observation to make that Unirea Urziceni are not performing at their full potential and they’re not scoring enough goals as a result.

Otelul Galati are traditionally a home side but have been excellent since returning from the winter break. Prior to their last match, Otelul Galati won three consecutive games without conceding a goal despite facing CFR Cluj along the way. Otelul Galati won twice at home and once on the road so their strength as increased in both aspects, something that is worth nothing. Otelul Galati are not a prolific side but they can be very good at keeping sides out. They travelled to an in-form Steaua Bucharest last match and were only beaten 1-0 so I’ve got good faith in them to do the job on Unirea tonight, who are not in-form at all.

Although there’s obvious doubts and the underlying issue that Unirea are the better of these two sides, an Otelul side that aren’t conceding goals travelling to an out-of-form Unirea tells me that this game has a decent chance of being a draw. Unirea are playing poorly enough to draw this and the value has to be in laying them as I feel that bookies have over-priced the reigning champions slightly here.

Verdict: Lay Unirea Urziceni at 5/4.

Cerro vs Internacional - away win in-play

This is the first time I’ve recommended a bet of this type and it might sound fairly obvious but I feel there’s potentially a lot of value in this game. The bookies have put Internacional at 8/11, unfortunately, and there’s no way on earth I’m backing them at those odds – they’re away from home for fuck’s sake! However, Cerro are not a particularly good side – they’re too defensive by far. Uruguay holds little to no geographical advantage over Brazil so the two sides are level-pegging in that aspect. The game is being played at a neutral venue so there’s no home advantage there either. In other words, Cerro will have to be very lucky to take anything from this game against a superior Internacional side. The result isn’t in doubt in my mind – it’s just when the visitors do it. With Cerro being a defensive side, I expect them to refrain from conceding an early goal. I also expect them to end the game with less than eleven men because that’s what Uruguayan sides tend to enjoy doing for some inane reason. My recommendation is purely that if you can watch this game then do so because of Internacional’s odds fall to 4/5 or even fall to evens (if you wait long enough) then they’re definitely worth taking. I will not be touching them at 8/11 though!

Accumulator fodder:

FC Poli Timisoara, Internacional, Sao Paulo, Rapid Bucharest

Recommended bets:

FC Poli Timisoara, VFL Wolfsburg, Liverpool, and Rapid Bucharest at 5/1.

Internacional, Sao Paulo, and Independiente Medellin at 4/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

UEFA Europa League:

Olympique de Marseille vs SL Benfica (6) 2-1
Standard de Liege vs Panathinaikos (6) under 2.5 goals
Fulham vs Juventus (4) 0-1
Werder Bremen vs Valencia (6) over 2.5 goals
Anderlecht vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-1
VFL Wolfsburg vs Rubin Kazan (8) over 2.5 goals
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Atletico Madrid (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Liverpool vs LOSC Lille (7) under 2.5 goals

Copa Libertadores:

Cerro vs Internacional (8) 0-2
Sao Paulo vs Nacional Asuncion (9) -1.75 handicap
Independiente Medellin vs Racing Club Montevideo (7) 1-0

Romanian Liga:

FC Poli Timisoara vs Unirea Alba Iulia (8) under 2.5 goals
Politehnica Iasi vs Vaslui (5) 1-0 draw no bet
Unirea Urziceni vs Otelul Galati (5) 0-0
Rapid Bucharest vs Astra Ploiesti (9) -1.75 handicap

Singaporean S-League:

Woodlands Wellington vs Sengkang Punggol (4) 1-1
Gombak United vs Armed Forces (5) 1-2

Enjoy your free betting tips

72 thoughts on “VFL Wolfsburg vs Rubin Kazan”

  2. I like it but keep punts tentative as gombak are bigger and better than their league placing suggests. SAF don’t have a good record here either although I do think that will change today. Good luck mate

  3. i amgoing to have a crack on al jazira @ 10/11 in the UAE league this afternoon will decide amount a bit later but £440 for £400 return sounds about right – i dont fancy anything really in euriopa league although i may tickle juve if i win this afternoon

  5. North Korea managed to win me a fat grand which im going to withdraw but keep 300 to play with today. Gonna follow ians advice on rapid bucuresti with sao paolo in a double. Might jump on Liverpool if its 0-0 half time. And maybe Independiente to keep a clean sheet against Racing Club.

  6. i did a double on a couple of shaky arab teams – al khauraitin & al manama £175 at just under 6/4 for the double so heres hoping and review a plump on rapid or juve later – i left al jazira as odds went down to 4/5 and a touch short for that match (0-0 after 75 mins so might be a blessing) – good luck all

  7. Anderlecht and Standard double for me today.

    even though Anderlecht lost 3-1 away to hamburg, i thought Anderlecht played quite decent and think the home advantage will be ideal for them.

    well done with korea Marz!! i honestly thought they would get stuffed

  8. i thought korea lost ?

    anyway one of my shaky arab teams were too shaky – will leave it for tonight !

    • they did lose, 2-1, but he was on the handicapp.

      Which team should I add to me Sao Paulo/Dinamo Bucharest accumulator? Need one more because odds on them are only 1.56, or shall I stick with that?

  9. Ok I’ve put £150 on Liverpool/Dinamo Bucharest/Sao Paulo treble for £200 profit. Down to £300 if I fail.

  10. Haha good luck with Dinamo Bucharest – they beat Steaua Bucharest last night!! ;) I guess you meant Rapid – good choice – I like Rapid.

    Try adding Internacional

  11. ian what are your thoughts on the anderlecht/hamburg game mate? any info would be good mate

  12. Anderlecht vs Hamburg = stay away. Hamburg tend to go under but Anderlecht have to score and definitely have the firepower to do so. Frankly, this game could finish 0-0 or 3-3 and I wouldn’t bat an eyelid. Both sides are good goalscorers so it’s a nightmare to call. Hamburg can’t just sit back and Anderlecht must attack. Over 2.5 goals interests me but I can’t back it with mass confidence ’cause Hamburg can close the door and ride it out. I’d maybe take both sides to score tentatively or Van Nistelrooy to score at any time.

  13. backed fulham when they were 1-0 down, they are 2-1 up against 10 men so it looks sweet. They hit the bar twice in 5 minutes.

  14. Hey lads. Sorry for the delayed reply. I’ve been quite literally fucked up the ass by my lecturer today at university so haven’t had a chance to post my picks :(

    I went for a double in Fulham and Bremen Over 2.5 goals which has come through. You might think this is after-eventing but I’ve always posted my picks before so it’s up to you to decide.

    I’ve gone for under 5.5 goals in the Bremen vs Valencia game @ 1.76! I can’t believe the odds and if this bet comes through i’m going to have a wank over it for sure. Pardon my french! :D

    I’ll post my picks for the later games. Hope you all had a lovely St.Patrick’s Day yesterday and good job to the people who backed North Korea +1.5.

  15. Maybe theres some money for us to make @ half time. I reckon under 5.5 for fulham v juve but the price is only 1.66. And marseille to sneak it. Anyone else got any good ideas?

  16. marz you have to look at value mate. Juventus are going to play 45 minutes with 10 men and are most likely to defend their one goal lead now. 1.66 is value for me and I’ll deffo take low stakes on that. Only worry is that Fulham have to attack and if they get a very early goal in the second half then the game might open up a lot more.

  18. Whoever has gone under at any point in the Bremen vs Valencia game is a very brave man. Both sides are utterly inept in defence currently – there should be at least two more goals in this game tonight

    • I put under 5.5 when it was 2-1 and fuck me how wrong I was..oh dear lord. Waste of money :(

      • it could easily still happen mate, I almost did the same thing but bet365 wouldnt accept it cause it was too late and fulham already won the penalty lol. my logic is that since its 3-1, fulham DO NOT want to give another away goal to juve, the safest thing for them to do is wear down their 10 man opponents by passing and keeping the ball, and finishing them off late in the game or in extra time.

  19. The Bremen Valencia game is fantastic viewing – probably a nightmare to bet on ! 4-3 amazing

  22. thanks for the info ian, ive put them in anyway, i was thinking that they’ve got the firepower to do some damage tonight.

    S.Liege have won just waiting for Anderlecht now for a decent profit.

    jesus what a result by Fulham!! had a felling they would win but not by that much!!

  25. I’ve been reading your football tips for a while now and I was just wondering if any of you had any advice. Basically, I’m 18 and I only started gambling on the internet in December. Since then, I’m down about £400. It may not seem a lot in comparison to the amounts that you lot bet with but it is a pretty significant loss for me personally. I was just wondering what the best way is in order to try and recoup that money back? Is there a certain method that I could use? Most of you will say ‘Ahhh, it’s only £400′ but I’m pretty worried that I’ve lost that much already at 18. Any advice or help? It would be really appreciated, thanks.

    • Hey Charlie lad, first of all, don’t worry about it. When you gamble you always have to set yourself to think you’re going to lose money. That way when you do lose a bet it won’t come across as too much of a surprise.

      I was down 900 quid mate and all because of “amateur” betting. I’m now up around 2 grand because I learned from my mistakes. The key is to bet on value and not just on the favourite because everyone has a bad day once in a while.

      Try cheeky doubles and trixies. Even though you make think they are impossible there’s always a chance of it coming through which will earn you a lot of bob.

      Don’t worry too much about it like I said. Last night was a very good day to recoup some money. Newcastle straight win or even the handicap would have gotten you back your money but that’s handsight! Bet with care and knowledge and there’s always a good chance you’ll beat the bookie. Remember don’t bet on silly odds just because “you think the team will dick on the other side”.

      • Thanks for the good advice mate. The only thing that I don’t like about value betting is that there is greater risk involved, but obviously for a greater reward. Therefore, I tend to stick to betting on the favourites like you say and clearly I haven’t been having much success. I had about £5200 of my own money and now I’m down to £4800. What would you suggest I do? I know that I shouldn’t aim to recoup my money like Ian said because that’ll force me to chase bets, but would you recommend that I withdraw like £300 and use that as my gambling fund and see where that gets me? Don’t forget that I’m only 18 and I have little experience. I just don’t know what the best way to go about it is.

  26. Money is money mate – every loss is a big loss, irrespective of the scale from individual punters.

    First things first – you won’t recoup that money so I would remove that idea asap! It takes an extremely good person to consistently win with gambling and those that do don’t tend to rely on it – they just enjoy it when they do. Don’t view it as money-making but some fun with potential bonuses. If you chase bets/money then you will lose – fact. It just happens that way.

    What I would do is be more careful with your bets. See what those around you are doing and add those factors to your own calculations. You make your own luck at the end of the day. Spend only what you can afford and enjoy it when you do or else you lose the point of doing it rather rapidly.

    Good luck

    • Hear hear. Well said Ian.

      The key words are “don’t chase” because you will end up losing. And that like Ian said is truely a fact!

      Bet only what you can afford and think of it more as fun betting rather than surviving off the winnings.

  27. It sounds to me your best bet would be to keep your money in the bank my friend it sounds like you can’t afford to lose it & u could be on the rocky road to ruin I bet because I enjoy the thrill but although I hate losing to the bastard bookies it’s only play money for me it’s not the family housekeeping and my own hobby. Winning is about skill luck & composure good luck with whatever you do but. Keep your wits about you

  28. hey mate, i think he can recoup that money. It only takes displine and carefullness. then with some luck u in. go slow but surely u can. Cheerio..

  29. Yeah, I think I probably could. I made £60 a few weeks ago but lost it and I made £60 again in the last few days, but lost £160 tonight. I think I should put £300 on my account and then everyday I’ll withdrew any money I’ve won even if it’s like £5-£10 a day. I’ll see what happens though. I certainly need to discipline myself more and that’s what’s costing me at the minute.

  30. only take heart. At 23yrs i was $12000 indebted just coz of gambling. Roullette had just consumed me, but started soccer betting and have repayed $3000 in just 4months. Anything is posible! hope in next seven months will be in +ve territory. keep calm and play safe!!!!!!

  31. Wow, $12000? That’s a lot of money, and when I see some people on here putting like £1000 on a single bet, it makes my £400 seem nothing. But congratulations for recouping some of that money back. Fancy giving me advice regarding betting tips to get my £400 back? ;)

    To be honest, I had a feeling that I’d lose money when I first started because I wasn’t used to it all and I knew that it would take time to learn the ropes. Anyway, thanks for all the advice everyone. I shall hang around on here and be part of the community if you don’t mind. Good luck all!

  34. You can say that again, Ian! I put £160 on Fulham & Valencia at half time to make just over £50. Fulham were 2-1 and Juventus were down to 10 men; while Valencia were 3-1 against Werder Bremen. All was going well until the last few minutes when the Germans equalised to make it 4-4! My heart actually skipped a beat! I was gutted! :/

  35. Haha yeah but it can’t be more than luck in this damn competition, Phil – it really is the death of me! I’m surprised Hamburg scored three and Van Nistelrooy didn’t get any of them though.

    Unlucky, Charlie! 80% of the time if a side is winning 3-1 then they’ll ride it out. However, Valencia are shit defensively and this was one of those games that you had to watch to follow. It could have been 8-8 and neither side could have complained, really! The only bet I’d have done having seen the first half would be to back more goals.

    Still, your luck will change mate – some good games tomorrow and at weekend!

  36. i watched the valencia game and both teams were going hell for leather for goals!! first lesson learnt there charlie, try the goals bet instead of the small profitble bet on the winners..

  37. Yeah, I normally bet on the over/under market and I’ve had some success actually.

    You’re right, Ian. You would expect a team winning 3-1 at half time to see it out, especially after how defensively poor Werder Bremen were in the first half. One of my mistakes was that I didn’t check how the aggregate score was and when I realised that Valencia would’ve settled for a score draw, I regretted putting the bet on. But like you say, hopefully there’s some money to be made over the next few days so I’ll listen out for some of your tips and what other people are betting on. I’m going to put £300 onto my account and if it goes then I might call it a day for a while but hopefully that won’t be the case and I’ll be able to build it up steadily. I know it’s not going to be easy though.

    • take a look at le harve and arsenal kiev 2moz mate, thats my tip for ya. good luck on future bets mate

      • Thanks, Phil. I appreciate any tips and advice. Le Havre look good at 13/20 actually so I might have to stick a few quid on them but I’m not sure how much just yet. However, it certainly looks like a bet which could get the ball rolling for me.

        As for Arsenal Kiev, I don’t really know that much about the Ukrainian football but I’ve had a look at the statistics and they’ve only won once in their last seven games which does concern me. On the other hand, Zakarpattia have only won once in ten games away from home this season and there is a clear difference in quality between the two sides and Arsenal Kiev should come out of top so it’s definately one I’ll have to think about. Thanks though! :)

        • I’d be very wary of Le Havre. My full preview is available in about an hour but off the top of my head..

          They’ve won once in nine games which was an unconvincing win at home to an awful Istres side. They’re short on momentum and goals whilst conceding too many. Their season is virtually over with little left to play for. They’re playing a Bastia side that boast one of the better defensive records on the road despite their league placing. They’ve only struggled with goalscoring this season but they’re starting to do that now. Bastia are playing better than they have all season so a draw here would be something I’d expect to occur at the very least, if not a cheeky away win.

          Anyway, good luck if you take it guys

  38. Haha you’ve gone against my pick of the day tomorrow, Phil – good luck with that one ;)

  39. really!! who le harve or arsenal kiev?

    im thinking le harve, ajaccio and metz for 2moz, whats your thoughts on them teams mate?

  40. Kiev are far too short priced against metallurgh 4/9 is shocking odds 4/5 or 8/11 surely more realistic I am waiting for the UAE match odds personally I expect the bottom team to lose at home at prob about 8/11 gnight all

  41. I’m laying Le Havre at evens with everything I’ve got haha! I like Arsenal Kiev but their draws of late leave me unconvinced by them although Zakarpattya Uzhhorod are truly an awful side so maybe so.

    I like Ajaccio, yes. Metz…I think they’ll win but it’d be a hard task to convince me to put more than 50p on them as they’re pitiful on the road more often than not and they’re facing a Guingamp side that simply set themselves up not to lose at home.

    Good luck mate

  42. I’m with you MKW – I’ve gone against Kiev tomorrow as they’re far too short. Metalurg Donetsk are solid defensively at home and Kiev are not scoring goals – looks a steal to me.

  44. Oh, great. It looks like I have know decent tips for tomorrow with Ian saying that Le Havre won’t win haha. And there was me thinking it was a decent punt!

  47. Haha Charlie – I said Wolfsburg would win tonight, why listen to me?! ;) Fucking Wolfsburg will be the death of me – that’s twice they’ve fucked me over within a week!

  49. Time I was off to bed anyways – I’ve bummed the hell out of Internacional at 11/10 as they should do the job second-half. Adios!

  50. hello,
    is there any chance sao paulo wont win tonight? i was thinking of backing heavy home win

    cheers