Just a bit of food for thought prior to today’s featured game. I’ve been monitoring Lech Poznan in Poland somewhat lately and I’ve been extremely impressed with their winter break acquisitions, their overall ability, and their potency. They’re looking strong whereas their title rivals are looking goal-shy and weak. Wisla Krakow are missing a finisher and Legia Warsaw don’t score enough goals. There’s still some twists to the Ekstraklasa season but I think the odds of 11/8 on Lech to win the league look very tempting indeed.

Anyway, today’s featured game is the Premier League game between Blackburn Rovers and Birmingham City. The two sides are similar in style with low-scoring wins and efficient football but I’m expecting the home advantage to play a big part tonight.

Blackburn Rovers have been strong at Ewood Park for some years now and this season is no exception. People seem to forget how good a home side that they are due to a poor start. However, eight wins in fifteen home games and just two defeats at home this season tells you that Blackburn are a bloody good home side. The growing reputation of centre-back Jones is boosting their confidence as young prodigies often do and Allardyce’s tactics are working well as usual. Not many sides score here – in fact, just Chelsea and Wigan have scored here in Blackburn’s last five games – with Blackburn conceding just twice in five home games. Blackburn always get at least a goal per home game so look capable of doing the business tonight, particularly off the back of a morale-boosting draw at home to title challengers Chelsea.

Birmingham City have been struggling of late due to losing their defensive strength. They’ve conceded six goals in three games, winning just once as a result. Birmingham are usually capable of scoring a goal but of late that’s not been enough as a clinical Sunderland proved by smashing three past them at weekend. Birmingham’s defence is their strongest point and without it they look rather average, to be honest. Birmingham have lost eight out of fifteen away games this season because they don’t score enough goals and concede considerably more than they score! Logic thus dictates that away form isn’t Birmingham’s forté. Birmingham lost five out of their last seven away games and will have to work very hard to take anything from their trip to Blackburn tonight.

I expect a close and very physical game between two good sides. The first goal scored should really be the winner in what should be a low-scoring affair and I think the goalscorers will be Blackburn. They’ve played very well of late and Birmingham are conceding goals for fun at the moment. Birmingham need to be in better shape to score against a resolute Blackburn side, let alone take any points off them, so the home win looks a good bet tonight at very good odds.

Verdict: Blackburn Rovers to win at evens.

Wednesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav – home win at evens.

The press this week have linked Sigma Olomouc massively to match fixing so this game should show how much it’s affected them. My personal viewpoint is that it will galvanise the team rather than split it up as Sigma Olomouc usually have good team spirit and play well at home so they’ll no doubt like to cast off the shackles of the media and play their football on the field as opposed to talking about it. Sigma Olomouc average scoring two goals per home game, which is the biggest goalscoring record in the Gambrinus Liga at home. That gives them a chance of beating anyone and that’s certainly applicable tonight against an out-of-form Mlada Boleslav. Sigma Olomouc have won both home games since returning from the winter break and have scored five goals whilst doing so so I expect Sigma Olomouc to turn up tonight.

Mlada Boleslav have gone straight out of the frying pan and into the fire lately. They’ve come back from the winter break still pissed, seemingly, with three consecutive defeats. The defeat against Sparta Prague is understandable; the defeats at home to Kladno and “away” to Bohemians 1905 are not acceptable at all. Mlada Boleslav are struggling to score goals with just one scored in three games so their problems are easy to see. As a result, morale is low so Mlada Boleslav are going to struggle against a very potent Sigma Olomouc tonight. Mlada Boleslav have already lost five out of nine away games this season and look set to lose another tonight with morale low and everything going against them.

The important factor for this game is the media. I’d advise watching this game for the first ten minutes or so to get a feel of how it’s affected Sigma Olomouc before placing your bets. However, I expect them to react well to it and win the game but be cautious for obvious reasons.

Verdict: Sigma Olomouc to win at evens.

Genoa vs Palermo – home win at 21/20.

Serie A’s biggest goalscoring home side Genoa tonight entertain high-flying Palermo in what could potentially be one of the matches of the season with Genoa consistently strong at home and Palermo playing exceptionally well at the moment.

Genoa have won ten out of fifteen home games in Serie A this season with an average of approximately 2.5 goals scored per home game. In terms of home form, no side has scored or conceded more goals than Genoa, which is a peculiar record for a good side but an accurate one nonetheless! Genoa have tremendous belief in themselves as they showed by coming from behind against Cagliari in their last home game to win an epic game 5-3. Genoa have scored eleven times in their last three home games so goalscoring definitely isn’t one of their issues. However, seven goals conceded during those three games is a very poor record so Genoa do tend to provide good entertainment at least! Either way, a potent Genoa is always likely to win a game like this and tonight isn’t an exception to me.

Visitors Palermo have been superb in recent weeks. However, the Sicily-based outfit do have one massive Achilles heel and that’s their away form. With eight defeats in fourteen away games, Palermo look rather weak on the road. They’ve lost three out of their last four away games and have conceded eleven times during that run whilst scoring seven times so they look set to make this game with Genoa a cracker! Palermo are without a win in two consecutive games, however, so they’re a tad short on momentum at the moment which should affect their display significantly against a constantly reliable Genoa side and it should be enough to see Palermo succumb to defeat tonight.

Palermo lost here last season and haven’t scored against Genoa in their last two meetings. Whereas I expect Palermo to at least score tonight, I don’t think they’ll take any point as Genoa score too many goals and win too many games at home. Palermo will fight bravely and make it interesting, no doubt, but Genoa have more in their favour than Palermo and the odds are good enough to take the home win at.

Verdict: Genoa to win at 21/20.

Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Partizan Belgrade – away win at 4/5.

Vojvodina Novi Sad are the third best side in Serbia behind the two Belgrade giants. They’re a fair way ahead of the remaining Serbian sides but are still some distance behind both Red Star and Partizan and it tends to show too. Nonetheless, Vojvodina remain a good home side as they’ve proven this season with five wins in nine home games, losing just twice along the way. They score an adequate amount whilst conceding very few goals so sides find it hard to take anything from this game in general. Despite Vojvodina winning both home games since returning from the winter break, they’ve been embarassed twice on the road by lowly Napredak and newly-promoted Smederevo so the hosts today are far from untouchable. At home they’re a difficult side but their consistent defeats on the road hasn’t helped their momentum one bit and they need all the help they can get against a frankly superior Partizan Belgrade side.

Partizan Belgrade have been slow in getting going this season but are now back in the saddle with five wins in nine away games. Partizan are the only side in the Super Liga yet to lose an away game this season and are one of the biggest goalscoring sides on the road. Partizan haven’t lost on this trip for four consecutive seasons now, winning twice and drawing twice. Vojvodina find it hard enough to score against the giants, let alone beat them, and I’m anticipating a similar predicament today for the hosts. Partizan have looked good since returning from the winter break with three wins in four games, particularly as they haven’t conceded a single goal in any of those games. Partizan won a very difficult away game against Borac Cacak with considerable ease as well as overcoming experience Super Liga outfit Hajduk Kula 2-0 on the road so Partizan are firing on all cylinders at the moment. They occasionally look short on goals but I don’t expect that to be a problem today given their excellent form of late so the visitors look good for the points today.

I think the bookies have sized up this game rather well, unfortunately. I was hoping for odds something like evens or 11/10 on Partizan for this game but I’ll take them at 4/5 as they’re more than good enough to do the business today.

Verdict: Partizan Belgrade to win at 4/5.

Hajduk Kula vs Spartak Subotica – away win at 2/1.

Well, these odds are stupid. I’m not dumb enough to think that newly-promoted Spartak Subotica will walk this game but I will give them their chances here because the odds on Hajduk Kula are way too short, although not short enough to lay them, unfortunately!

Hajduk Kula may have only lost four home games out of nine this season but they’re a poor goalscoring side and rarely look a threat to opposing sides. That’s the predominant reason that they’re battling against relegation this season, really! Hajduk Kula have started the latter part of their Super Liga campaign dismally with four consecutive defeats, conceding ten times and scoring just twice, which is an atrocious record. They’ve not even managed to score in any of their last three games and look bereft of morale so should struggle an awful lot at home today.

Spartak Subotica continue to defy all odds by launching what is rapidly becoming a legitimate challenge for a European spot next season! You can’t fault them either as they’ve won five out of nine away games this season – the same number as Partizan Belgrade! – and boast one of the better defensive records in the division whilst doing so. They’ve been superb since returning from their winter break with three wins and one draw in four games, a run which has included two difficult away games against Borac Cacak and OFK Belgrade so I’ll give Spartak Subotica the credit that they’ve definitely earned. They’re not as potent as I’d like but they’ve scored in three of their last four games so should be able to do so today.

Ultimately, a demoralised and goal-shy Hajduk Kula look prime candidates for Spartak Subotica to beat and extend their good run as well as their excellent season and I think 2/1 is too good a price to miss out on, frankly!

Verdict: Spartak Subotica to win at 2/1.

Basel vs FC Zurich – lay Basel at 11/10.

I can’t quite understand why Basel are 8/13 to beat a side that they’ve only beaten here once in their last three Super League meetings, thus Basel look too short to me.

Basel are playing well but they’ve been conceding far too many goals of late with four goals conceded in their last three games. Basel were stunned by in-form Grasshoppers Zurich when Grasshoppers won 2-1 at Basel a couple of games again and I’m expecting something of a similar vein tonight. There’s no doubt in my mind that Basel are one of the biggest and best sides in Switzerland but FC Zurich really aren’t very far behind at all. They’ve had a poor campaign but the winter break has done them good and now FC Zurich look rejuvenated with three consecutive wins. FC Zurich do well in the Super League because they’re generally hard to beat, a trait they lost during their demoralised part of the season. However, they look back in business now and whilst I don’t believe they’re performing as well as they’re capable of playing, I do think that they’re capable of causing problems for a leaky Basel side currently and the odds are certainly worthwhile to lay Basel as they take on a side that can match them on their day.

Verdict: Lay Basel at 11/10.

Accumulator fodder:

Lanus, Cruzeiro, Kashima Antlers, Al Hilal, Wiener Neustadt, Slavia Sofia, Brno, FC Copenhagen, West Bromwich Albion, Internazionale, Celtic, Red Star Belgrade, Barcelona, Valencia CF, Metalist Kharkiv, Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk.

Recommended bets:

Blackburn Rovers, Partizan Belgrade, Wiener Neustadt, and Brno at 7/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Copa Libertadores:

Lanus vs Blooming Santa Cruz (10) -1.75 handicap
Universidad Catolica vs Caracas (7) 1-0
Cruzeiro vs Deportivo Italia (9) 3-1

Asian Champions League:

Changchun Yatai vs Jeonbuk Motors (5) 1-1
Adelaide United vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6) 1-1
Kashima Antlers vs Persipura Jayapura (10) -2.75 handicap
Pohang Steelers vs Shandong Luneng (8) 2-1
Zob Ahan vs Bunyodkor (5) 1-1
Al Sadd vs Mes Keman (6) 2-1
Al Wahda vs Al Ittihad (5) 0-1
Al Hilal vs Al Ahli (8) 2-0

Austrian Bundesliga:

Salzburg vs Sturm Graz (7) 2-1
SV Ried vs Austria Vienna (5) 1-0
Wiener Neustadt vs Austria Karnten (8) over 2.5 goals
LASK Linz vs SV Kapfenberg (6) over 3.5 goals

Belgian Tweede Klasse:

Boussu Dour Borinage vs Antwerp (6)
Brussels vs Mons (6)
Tournai vs Lierse SK (7)
Liege vs Dender (6)

Bulgarian A PFG:

Chernomorets Burgas vs Lokomotiv Mezdra (7) 1-0
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia (6) 1-2
Slavia Sofia vs Montana (8) 2-0
CSKA Sofia vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (7) 2-1

Colombian Primera A:

Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 1-1
Millonarios Bogota vs Boyaca Chico (6) 1-0

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Bohemians Prague vs Banik Ostrava (5) 1-1
Ceske Budejovice vs Bohemians 1905 (6) 1-0
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav (7) 2-0
Viktoria Plzen vs Pribram (7) 1-0
Brno vs Kladno (8) 2-0
Jablonec vs Sparta Prague (5) 0-1

Danish Superligaen:

Aalborg BK vs Silkeborg (6) 1-0
FC Copenhagen vs Nordsjaelland (8) 2-0

Danish 1st Division:

Viborg vs Frem (7)

English Premier League:

Manchester City vs Everton (6) 1-1
Aston Villa vs Sunderland (4) 1-1
Portsmouth vs Chelsea (7) 1-2
Blackburn Rovers vs Birmingham City (6) 1-0

English Championship:

Cardiff City vs Sheffield United (6) over 2.5 goals
Leicester City vs Reading (7)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Watford (6)
West Bromwich Albion vs Coventry City (8) over 2.5 goals

English FA Cup:

Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham (7) 1-0

Finnish Liiga Cup:

Inter Turku vs Honka Espoo (5) 1-1
KuPS Kuopio vs JJK Jyvaskyla (5) 2-1
Tampere United vs AC Oulu (7) 2-0

International Friendly:

Mexico vs Iceland (8) 2-0

Italian Serie A:

Atalanta Bergamo vs Cagliari (6) 2-2
Udinese vs Chievo Verona (7) 2-1
Catania vs Fiorentina (6) 1-1
Internazionale vs Livorno (8) 2-0
Parma vs AC Milan (6) 1-1
Genoa vs Palermo (8) over 3.5 goals
Bologna vs AS Roma (6) 0-1
Bari vs Sampdoria (5) 1-1
Lazio vs Siena (7) 0-0

Scottish Premier League:

Kilmarnock vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 0-0
St.Mirren vs Celtic (9) 0-2

Serbian Super Liga:

Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Partizan Belgrade (7) 0-1
Mladi Radnik vs Napredak (6) 1-0
Cukaricki vs BSK Borca (6) 0-0
Javor Ivanjica vs Jagodina (6) 2-1
Borac Cacak vs Rad Belgrade (7) 1-0
Hajduk Kula vs Spartak Subotica (6) 1-2
OFK Belgrade vs Metalac GM (7) 2-1
Red Star Belgrade vs Smederevo (9) -1.75 handicap

Singaporean S-League:

Balestier Khalsa vs Beijing Guoan (4) 1-1

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

Senica vs Tatran Presov (6) 1-0
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Kosice (6) 2-1
Dubnica vs Artmedia Petrzalka (5) 1-0
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Ruzomberok (6) 1-1
Nitra vs Spartak Trnava (5) 1-1
Slovan Bratislava vs MSK Zilina (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game

Spanish Primera Liga:

Tenerife vs Villarreal (5) 0-1
Real Valladolid vs Espanyol (6) 1-1
Racing Santander vs Real Mallorca (6) 2-1
Barcelona vs Osasuna (8) 3-1, at least one red card in this game
Almeria vs Real Zaragoza (5) 0-0
Valencia vs Malaga (8) over 2.5 goals

Swiss Super League:

Aarau vs Sion (6) 0-0
Basel vs FC Zurich (5) 2-2
Luzern vs St.Gallen (5) 1-0

Swiss Challenge League:

Gossau vs Biel-Bienne (6)

Ukrainian Premier League:

Arsenal Kiev vs Vorskla Poltava (5) 0-0
Zakarpattya Uzhhorod vs Dynamo Kiev (7) under 2.5 goals
Obolon Kiev vs Illichivets Mariupol (6) 1-0
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (8) 2-0
Metalist Kharkiv vs Chernomorets Odessa (8) over 2.5 goals

Uruguayan Primera Division:

River Plate Montevideo vs Cerro (6) 2-1

Welsh Premier League:

Airbus UK vs Bangor City (6) 1-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!