Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga encounter at the Mestalla between Valencia CF and Athletic Club de Bilbao. Both clubs are currently placed loftily with each having European aspirations so this should be quite the encounter with both sides needing three points as often as they can get them.

Hosts Valencia CF have had a strong season, or so the league table suggests. I personally can’t ever place a lot of trust in this side because of how unreliable they tend to be. Look at their home record, for instance – nine wins in fifteen home games is not the record of a big side – it’s the record of a challenging side, which is what Valencia CF really are nowadays, not that they’d like to admit it. Financial worries are catching them up gradually and they’re struggling to hang onto their better players as a result. They play some marvellous football sometimes but it’s so few and far between that they must be a nightmare side to support. They can’t defend for shit and tend to struggle against defensively strong sides, particularly if Valencia don’t score early in the game so I expect them to have a tough game with Los Leones tonight – as usual!

I’m trying to not be biased here but Athletic Club de Bilbao have had a fantastic season. They’ve got a great mix of experience, talent, ability, potency, strength, tenacity, aggression, and youth so I hope for a big future from them providing the bigger clubs don’t come sniffing around their talented players. They’ve done so well this season that they’re playing for a Champions League place next season and I genuinely think they can do it with their remaining league games irrespective of the outcome of tonight’s game.

However, one thing I do have to point out here is that Bilbao don’t travel well as a rule, thus making this a risky call. They do have a good record at Valencia and I’m hoping that spurs them on tonight as much as Sevilla’s defeat at Valladolid will have done last night. What I like about the current Bilbao side is how resolute and focused they are from game to game. They smashed four goals past Almeria in their last game and it could have and should have been more. Almeria are far from a good side but they’re a solid side that rarely gets annihlated but Bilbao tore them apart with a maturity that I’ve not seen in this side for some time which has possibly been caused by experience in European football this season. Bilbao play good football, which would work against them if they try disrespecting Valencia tonight but it’s a risk I’m prepared to take. Bilbao are good enough to match Valencia so I think they bookies have slightly over-priced Valencia CF at 8/13. Bilbao know every point counts and they’re more than capable of getting it here so I think they’ll put up a good showing tonight.

I have to insist upon you all watching this game if possible because these two sides throw up the most bizarre of encounters. Bilbao have a great record against Valencia and have only lost at Valencia once in their last five visits. Bilbao tend to do well against Valencia CF as their attack tends to come up short against Bilbao’s solid defence and Valencia’s defence is just shocking. I’m expecting goals and cards a-plenty tonight but I can’t see Valencia breaking down a resolute Bilbao side tonight so laying them could well be the way forwards.

Verdict: Lay Valencia CF at 6/5.

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin – home win at evens.

The Medellin derby isn’t as prestigious as it used to be but the insanity passion of each set of fans has not diminished whatsoever. Independiente are the bigger of the two sides at present and their results in head-to-heads reflects that with Independiente unbeaten in the last four meetings between these two sides at either ground. Independiente are traditionally strong at home although they’ve disappointed a bit in front of goal this season with just seven goals scored in six games, hence their three wins and three draws. However, their defence is incredibly strong at home with just two goals conceded at home this season and I can’t see that changing tonight against an Atletico Nacional side that doesn’t tend to travel well irrespective of their recent form. Independiente Medellin have got their sights on a Primera A title this season whereas their local rivals would like to make the final eight at least to perhaps rekindle their glory days. Independiente have won the home game against Atletico for their last two meetings and have done so convincingly each time. Independiente have scored twelve goals in their last four Primera A games so I’m not as concerned with their previous goal-shy home form as I feel that they’ll shatter the Atletico defence at least once. Atletico have played well lately but they’ve played some rather poor sides, in my opinion, which should expose them tonight. I just don’t think that Atletico are good enough to match Independiente nowadays on any level and odds of evens should be taken on the home win gleefully considering the statistics and level of ability difference despite this game being a hard-fought derby!

Verdict: Independiente Medellin to win at evens.

Sandefjord vs Valerenga Oslo – away win at 6/4.

I can’t substantiate this anywhere near as much as I’d like – my fundamental reasoning is that I think Valerenga are some way better than Sandefjord. Sandefjord are a team of fortune but they’re a side that loves to ship goals. They’re battlers and will score given chance but their defence is shoddy and has been penetrated by every side they’ve faced this season, totalling eleven goals conceded in five games – an average of over two per game. They know that they need to take points to stay in the division (again!) but I think they’ll get a surprise tonight. Even their own manager knows how bad they are with his comments regarding maintaining the Eliteserien’s policy of using sixteen teams instead of twelve or fourteen because he knows they’d be relegated if the number of sides in the division was reduced! I’ve mentioned earlier this week that I feel that Valerenga have been unlucky this season more than anything but their luck finally paid off with a well-earned win at home to Molde FK. I’m hoping that Abdellaoue and co. will build on that win and bring some momentum into this game to try and improve their luck. Valerenga have already scored four times on the road this season despite trips to Stabaek and in-form Start Kristiansand so they know how to score goals. Their defence tends to be good overall although their goals conceded record on the road isn’t flattering whatsoever currently. I simply feel that Valerenga are the better side and have the floor tonight to show how accurate that is. I think they bookies may just have underestimated Valerenga here and I hope to be proven right tonight.

Incidentally, this is another one of those occasions where I’ve looked at head-to-heads after making the prediction and Valerenga have won all four of their away games against Sandefjord in the Eliteserien and have beaten them on seven out of their last eight meetings at either ground. Hmm…

Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to win at 6/4.

Almeria vs Real Madrid – lay Real Madrid at 11/5.

I appreciate that Almeria have entered this game on the back of a 4-1 humiliation in the Basque country but the odds on them to win this game, let alone not lose it, are farcical! This side has only lost twice at home this season in the Primera Liga and are notorious for being a nightmare away side to face due to their strong home support and physical football. Almeria are no mugs and their form since the turn of the year shows that perfectly. Hell, Almeria have hosted Real Madrid twice now and lost neither game, winning once and drawing once. Almeria aren’t afraid to attack and score goals against the big sides at home as a 2-2 draw with Barcelona a few weeks ago illustrated perfectly so I expect another dogged display from them tonight. Real Madrid enter this game knowing that although the title isn’t over, it’s just not going to happen for them – Barcelona are too good for them and they’ve seen it first hand. They’ve got little to play for and I expect last match to have hurt them a lot. They’ve got the individual brilliance to score goals but to outscore their resolute hosts tonight? I don’t think so, personally. The odds on laying Madrid for this game are great from my point of view and I’m even weighing up Almeria +1.75 at 5/6 as Madrid won’t have it all their own way tonight. Expect a very scrappy game with plenty of cards!

Verdict: Lay Real Madrid at 11/5.

Mjallby Solvesborg vs Kalmar – home win at 13/10.

I’m taking a bit of a chance by backing newly-promoted Mjallby to sting a good Kalmar side tonight but i think there’s enough to go off and the odds are good enough to warrant it. Mjablly have stunned a lot of sides following promotion with gritty but efficient displays, winning three out of their five Allsvenskan games this season already and losing just once. Mjallby even bounced back from a humiliation inflicted at home by Gefle so their morale and confidence is sky-high. It basically takes a well-organised and talented side to dismantle them and I don’t think Kalmar are that side at the moment. Kalmar were never one of the big sides in Sweden – they simply had a good period with some good players which boosted their hard-working tactics and improved the side for a while. The loss of Rasmus, David, and Viktor Elm has hurt Kalmar massively and they’ve reverted back to being an average Allsvenskan side with problems in front of goal. They’ve failed to win both away games so far this season and generally look a shadow of their former selves so I think a resilient and driven Mjallby side can cause a real upset tonight. The key here will be the first goal, of course. If it goes to Mjallby then I fancy them to hold it; if it’s an unprecedented lead for Kalmar then I’d be a little more concerned. Ultimately, there has to be value in the home win for a side who have started their season with a bang and need every point when hosting a fallen “giant” that can’t score goals at the moment.

Verdict: Mjallby Solvesborg to win at 13/10.

Accumulator fodder:

Lanus, Velez Sarsfield, Brondby, Llanelli.

Recommended bets:

I can’t actually find a bet I like the look of today in multiple format – sorry guys!

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Copa Libertadores:

Blooming La Paz vs Libertad Asuncion (4) 1-1
Lanus vs Universitario Lima (8) 2-1
Colo Colo vs Cruzeiro (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Velez Sarsfield vs Deportivo Italia (8) under 2.5 goals

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Germinal Beerschot vs Standard de Liege (6) 1-2

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Montana (7) 1-0

Colombian Primera A:

Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game

Danish Superligaen:

HB Koge vs SonderjyskE (4) 0-1
Brondby vs Nordsjaelland (8) over 2.5 goals

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Molde vs Stromsgodset (4) 1-1
Sandefjord vs Valerenga Oslo (6) 1-2

Portuguese Liga de Honra:

Gil Vicente vs Beira-Mar (6)

Singaporean S-League:

Beijing Guoan vs Albirex Niigata (4) 1-1
Geylang United vs Sengkang Punggol (7) 1-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Almeria vs Real Madrid (5) 1-1
Valencia CF vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game

Swedish Allsvenskan:

Mjallby Solvesborg vs Kalmar (5) 1-0
GAIS Goteborg vs Gefle (5) 0-0
Brommapojkarna vs Orebro (6) 1-1
Elfsborg Boras vs Djurgardens (3) 1-1
Trelleborg vs IFK Goteborg (5) 0-1

Ukrainian Premier League:

Arsenal Kiev vs Tavriya Simferopol (6) 1-0
Zorya Lugansk vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (5) 1-1
Zakarpatty Uzhhorod vs Chernomorets Odessa (4) 0-1
Metalurg Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava (7) 2-1
Metalist Kharkiv vs Illichivets Mariupol (7) 2-0
Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk (7) 1-2

Welsh Premier League:

Llanelli vs Haverfordwest County (8) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!