The Footy Tipster Free football betting tips from an expert on worldwide football

13Jul/1087

Levadia Tallinn vs Debreceni VSC

Today's featured game is the UEFA Champions League Qualifier in Estonia between Levadia Tallinn and Debreceni VSC. These two sides met in last year's competition with the Hungarian champions emerging triumphant on that occasion and to be honest, I expect the same outcome this time around.

Maybe I'll be proven wrong today but I don't see why the bookies have priced Debrecen so generously. They're the better side by some distance and they overcame Levadia last time around when Levadia had a stronger side than they do now! Debrecen are coming back to face Levadia again with more experience, a similar level of ability, and the determination to make the group stages of this competition again and I don't see why they can't secure that tonight with an assured display. I have a lot of respect for Levadia Tallinn and I don't underestimate the arising level of Estonian football but they have real problems scoring goals and considering that they're facing a superior side, this now becomes a very big problem indeed. Levadia are good enough to keep the scoreline low and respectable but I'll be very surprised indeed if Debrecen don't win this one through natural progression, particularly with their Hungarian Super Cup win against Fehervar last week under their belts to give them some momentum, which is very useful considering that the Soproni Liga hasn't started yet but the Meistriliiga is mid-season. Levadia won't make this game easy but the odds on the away win are far too long, in my opinion, and thus worth a punt. The only outcome I can see where Debrecen don't win this game is if it melts into a stalemate but I still think the away win is the most likely outcome here. Estonian football may be on the rise but Hungarian football is very good indeed at the moment and is only getting better!

Verdict: Debreceni VSC to win at 29/20.

Tuesday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Birkirkara vs MSK Zilina - away win at 2/5.

These aren't particularly good odds but they should be far shorter! Zilina are experienced in Europe and a hell of a lot better than Birkirkara. Maltese football is decent at best but I think Zilina will destroy them today. Let's face it - any side that can concede three times at home to Andorran opponents has real problems, particularly considering that Birkirkara's strength in Europe tends to be defence rather than attack! I can't see the hosts doing anything here, to be honest - Zilina should run riot, even if they don't score many goals in general. For me, the odds on the away win here should be 1/4 at the longest.

Verdict: MSK Zilina to win at 2/5.

Liepajas Metalurgs vs Sparta Prague - lay Sparta Prague at 23/20.

There are some surprising odds on this one. Sparta Prague are very experienced but their side isn't as good as it used to be. Their strength in the Gambrinus Liga last season was keeping sides out rather than outscoring them. Don't get me wrong - Sparta are unquestionably the better of the two sides here today but they're definitely not worth the odds of 1/2 that they've been given. Liepajas Metalurgs aren't as strong as they used to be either, in my opinion, but no trips to the Baltic states are easy anymore so I don't know why the bookies have written them off so early. I think both sides would take a draw here pre-match and I also think that's the most likely outcome with determined hosts that are mid-season against experienced Sparta that are short on match practice. It's a dubious call, for sure, but the odds for laying the visitors here should never be as long as they are.

Verdict: Lay Sparta Prague at 23/20.

AIK Solna vs Jeunesse d'Esch - Jeunesse d'Esch to win with +1.75 goal handicap at 2/1.

Very dubious but fun call here! AIK have been shocking this season and are only now starting to turn things around gradually. Their strength was always in keeping sides out rather than scoring goals but today they're heavy favourites - too heavy, in my opinion - and are expected to score a lot of goals. The AIK side I know aren't capable of scoring lots of goals due to their football style so whereas I do think they'll win the game, I don't envision it being heavily, although the possibility is always there against Luxembourgian opponents! Jeunesse aren't a good side but they'll be determined here and determination is something that AIK have looked particularly susceptible against this season, particularly in defence, so don't be surprised if the visitors steal a goal here. Luxembourgian football isn't as bad as it was as Dudelange proved by beating Randers the other night, albeit at home. I think the visitors will cause a stir today and although I expect them to lose, I think the odds on giving them a  +1.75 goal head start are far too generous and should be given some thought, particularly as AIK aren't worth 1/20 to beat anyone in my opinion!

Verdict: Jeunesse d'Esch to win with a +1.75 goal handicap at 2/1.

Accumulator fodder:

MSK Zilina, Salzburg.

Recommended bets:

MSK Zilina, Salzburg, and Debreceni VSC at 3/1

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!

UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:

Inter Baku vs Lech Poznan (6) 1-1
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Sparta Prague (5) 0-0
Levadia Tallinn vs Debreceni VSC (7) 0-1
Salzburg vs HB Torshavn (8) 2-0
Birkirkara vs MSK Zilina (8) 1-2
Omonia Nicosia vs Renova Dzepciste (7) 2-0
AIK Solna vs Jeunesse d'Esch (7) 2-1
Litex Lovech vs Rudar Pljevlja (7) 2-0
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (7) 2-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs Koper (7) 2-1
Bohemians vs The New Saints (7) 1-0

Irish Premier League:

Sligo Rovers vs UCD (6) 1-0

Singaporean S-League:

Young Lions vs Etoile (5) 1-1

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Comments (87) Trackbacks (0)
  1. SCOTLAND73
    July 13th, 2010 - 01:22

    Today i choose an accumulator with:
    Msk Zilina
    Hapoel Tel Aviv
    Bohemians
    Debrecen

    And a treble with:
    Dinamo v Koper Over 2.5
    Inter B v Lech P Under 2.5
    Levadia v Debrecen Over 2.5

    Longshot but fingers crossed.
    Good Luck with your picks guys…..

    ( REPLY )
    • Siim
      July 13th, 2010 - 08:55

      Why are you going over 2.5 in Levadia-Debrecen game ? I don’t see a chance this one going over. But good luck!

  2. marz
    July 13th, 2010 - 01:52

    I quite like the s league today, i think there is money to be made.

    Young Lions v Etoile FC

    Looking to this game a few days ago, i was expecting etoile to be priced around 1.4-1.5 considering how well they have been doing. I was very surprised to see Etoile priced at 1.90 which made me smile because this could potentially be a killing. I’m going to try figure out why they are so long to win this game.

    Young lions have improved a hell of alot over the past year. In the last 6 home games, they have won 5, including impressive wins over Tampines, Gombak United and Home United (although this was a cup game and home dont give a rats ass about the cup). Their only draw was their last game against a much improved albirex niigata, so i do not hold that against them. Considering they have downed pretty much all the good teams in singapore in these last few games, i guess it makes sense that the books have priced etoile so long.

    There are a few things i think the books are missing out on though.

    The young lions are a very young team. The mandatory age is below 23, this club was formed to develop singapores youth so it makes sense. What do we know about young players? Well, what do we know about Arsenal. They do very well at the beginning of the season but they tire towards the end (ignore arsenals last season because they finished strongly). I feel the young lions are doing the typical mistake of going all out at the beginning, and not leaving enough spare batteries to cope towards the end. In their last game, a 1-0 loss at the hands of Beijing Guoan, they looked very tired and lacking motivation. (reported by the papers and a few of my friends ) Beijing Guoan are suffering the same problem of tiring out (their squad is very young as well) so i was surprised to see that the lions couldnt even get a goal against them. Etoile will press them much much harder so i dont see how they will cope.

    The lions will be without captain and tackle-monkey centre back Hariss Harun, who is very important to the side. This was a big reason they lost to Beijing Gouan because Harun was in Shanghai undergoing a trial for Shenhua. Without him their defence will be much more disorganised.

    Etoile lost last time out. Fair enough, it was against an albirex niigata side who have J league coaches who know how to play against European sides. I dont see how the young lions can cope against Etoile’s european style of play, when the lions are the smallest team in the league.

    There are many other reasons why im backing the away win today, but my fingers are getting tired so i’ll leave it at that.

    Value Bets
    Etoile 3-0 @ 15.00
    Etoile – 1.5 @ 3.30

    Main Bet
    Etoile @ 1.90

    Rarely do we get such good odds on etoile who are a cut above the rest in this league. I think this is a game where the player has the advantage over the books so im going heavy stakes on this.

    Good luck guys!!

    ( REPLY )
    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 02:23

      Correction, Hariss is back from his trial with Shenhua but he is very doubtful to play today.

      I reckon the price for etoile will drop once the squads are announced and he is out.

    • spatgo
      July 13th, 2010 - 05:27

      Cheers marz. Fingers crossed.

    • harsimran
      July 13th, 2010 - 05:28

      bro marz i need some tips on malaysian football super league particulary……would b nice 2 have ur help u r 4rm sarawak ryte….

    • Melissa
      July 13th, 2010 - 06:34

      Marz do you think of an Etoile lead at Half-time?

      Could go for Etoile (H-T)—Etolie (FT).

    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 06:37

      they really should be leading at half time, the odds are good so its worth a bet

    • PhilsTips
      July 13th, 2010 - 10:25

      I would also like to point out that the Young Lions have only lost twice in their last 16 home games which does indicate the vast improvements that was pointed out by Marz and also that Etoile have only lost one game in 14 away from home which points out their abilitys aswell, I think the odds of 1.90 could be justified here today as Etoile are in for a tough match. Etoile should win it though.

    • panda
      July 13th, 2010 - 12:49

      good work ,0-1 now

    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 14:20

      Haris, whenever there r malaysian league games ill post the ones i like here, that league is even more profitable than the s league ;)

    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 14:46

      2 goals in injury time? fuck that shit

      etoile win 2-1 it finishes

  3. Seaneme
    July 13th, 2010 - 02:08

    Hi Guys,

    Does anyone have much info on Russian football. Why is Luch Energiya (Div 1) v Terek Grozni (Premier L.) (Russian Cup) so long on Terek @ 6.8 when they are a div apart.

    Cheers

    ( REPLY )
    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 02:15

      I dont really know, maybe because terek are a home side and not all sides care about the russian cup?

      Does anyone have team news for this game? Might go for X2.

    • Seaneme
      July 13th, 2010 - 06:11

      thanks marz. i’m having a go at 5 dollars. worth a punt at those odds.

    • PhilsTips
      July 13th, 2010 - 10:26

      Sorry i got here late! Terek are playing a youthful side from what ive heard and its showing in the result so far!

    • Seaneme
      July 13th, 2010 - 11:14

      just found out. Thanks Phil, appreciate that.

    • Seaneme
      July 13th, 2010 - 12:50

      wonder if Enyeama is playing tonight for Hapoel Tel-Aviv. He was massive against Argentina in the world cup.

  4. Richel
    July 13th, 2010 - 02:55

    Does anyone know about BRAZIL: Campeonato Brasileiro B?

    Thanks

    ( REPLY )
  5. Stew
    July 13th, 2010 - 05:10

    Totaly off subject. Do you think football games are fixed. I’d like to think that 99% aren’t. I’ve been a football fan for years. And would like to believe that they aren’t. One thing I know for sure these sites that promise a guarantee fix is rubbish because if the site knew for sure they could bet the farm on the game, there would be no need to share this information.

    Thoughts?

    ( REPLY )
    • PhilsTips
      July 13th, 2010 - 10:28

      If someone tells me a game is fixed i still dont believe them entirely, People are so full of shit its unbelievable! Or they could be working for the bookies!

    • PhilsTips
      July 13th, 2010 - 10:31

      I believe some games are fixed! Especially in the Europe mainland (im looking at you Italy). I wouldnt be suprised that some Premiership games are fixed especially with the amount of money that is in the game nowadays.

    • Bob
      July 13th, 2010 - 12:45

      I believe most games are on the up&up. You may have some lower level leagues that may be fixed but for the most part the games aren’t. As far as these sites that promise fixed games don’t believe them. If that was true FIFA and the rest of the officials would investigate the alleged fix. I have been to over 200 football games and have never thought a game was fixed.

    • Morrigana
      July 13th, 2010 - 17:28

      Some games in the Eastern Europe are often said to be fixed, especially in the lower leagues and when the 2 sides that are playing are widely known as “allies”. It’s more suspicious when one of the sides has a “debt” to pay to the other team – this can be for example reciprocating some favour done previously in a similar way etc.
      There are specific games, i’m sure, in which it’s quite easy to figure out that they could be fixed, should an opportunity arise. Examples could be numerous. Haha and the bookies always have some reason to suspend the market.

  6. spatgo
    July 13th, 2010 - 05:41

    Just a note on the AIK game. They have a new coach and have sold a couple of players this summer. I don’t know where they stand at the moment. Agree they should overcome their opponents today but it’s been a strange a funny season for them so far…

    ( REPLY )
  7. Melissa
    July 13th, 2010 - 07:30

    I know last time you were pretty confident for Tampines Rovers how would you rate for an Away Etoile win today…over10?

    Thinkin to go heavy on it…Sincerely your predictions have been quite lucky to me those past time….SO NEVER CHANGE A WINNING TEAM MARZ.

    As usual MY BIG THANKS.

    ( REPLY )
  8. cftc
    July 13th, 2010 - 10:54

    any thoughts on Europe League qual. games? it s a bit early but odds for anorthosis and fc baku slashed down already.

    ( REPLY )
  9. Jonno
    July 13th, 2010 - 11:11

    Was given a tip earlier today but not footy im afraid but may be worth small stakes:

    2.10 Brighton – Sharp Shoes (4-1 j.fav)…. Only horse the trainer has sent down from North Yorkshire all the way to Brighton.

    Good Luck.

    ( REPLY )
    • Nimesh
      July 13th, 2010 - 11:17

      Jonno mate already placed ab et on this one. Nice to know thers are confident on this one too. Just hope he wins and not places, but ground should be good for sharp shoes due to overnight rain.

      Also, got motty’s gift ew@3.40!

      good luck!:)

    • Nimesh
      July 13th, 2010 - 11:19

      a bet*
      others*

      sorry lol

    • Jonno
      July 13th, 2010 - 14:18

      Well it fell out of the stall and gave itself way much to do……typical!!!

  10. Earth
    July 13th, 2010 - 11:58

    AIK v Jeunesse D\’Esch
    i have made a low stake bet backing Jeunesse D\’Esch @26! (betfair)

    I thought this value is too good to give a miss!!

    ( REPLY )
  11. Alexey
    July 13th, 2010 - 12:18

    Debrecen’s starting eleven: Malinauskas – Nagy Z., Komlósi, Mijadinoszki, Fodor – Czvitkovics, Kiss Z., Bódi, Szakály – Kabát, Coulibaly

    How the defence will work together is completely unknown – Debrecen has lost 3 defenders plus their keeper due to UEFA suspensions and transfers, so this is a new part of the team which still looks strong enough for Hungarian standards.

    The midfield has 1 new player, youngster Bódi will get his chance, the rest have all competed in CL last season.

    They bought Újpest’s talismanic striker Kabát for this season, and their partnership with Coulibaly (best ball holder target man in Hungary) looks prosperous.

    Levadia has a young team, some of their important players left the club recently, and their places were filled with young prospects.

    I expect a low scoring game, u2,5 goals with a 1-0 Debrecen victory or 1-1 draw.

    ( REPLY )
    • Siim
      July 13th, 2010 - 12:55

      Some Levadia youngsters have improved a lot with this year. Compared to the last Debrecen match, they lost both their strikers, like Ian said, their problem has been scoring, they signed Brazilian Felipe Nunes (former Nõmme Kalju) at the beginning of the month, who scored 2 goals in his first match, but it was against Viljandi.. don’t know how good his form is at the moment, especially physical.. On the side note – it’s 32 C in Tallinn and should be around 30 when the game begins. It’s gonna be a very hard game for both sides.

    • Siim
      July 13th, 2010 - 13:04

      It’s definitely going under 2.5. Don’t know yet what to do with this game, don’t want to go against Levadia.. Debrecen price is dropping quite quickly also.
      For more information – the game is played in Kadrioru stadium, where Levadia played their home games last season. In this season they haven’t played there, except one Cup game.

      You can watch the game from this stream: http://otse.err.ee/otse/etv2 hope they won’t take the stream down when the game starts.

  12. Melissa
    July 13th, 2010 - 12:53

    Bob hope it was a good night for you with the JJk win.
    Any bets for today?

    ( REPLY )
    • b ob
      July 13th, 2010 - 14:20

      thanx!! you hit a nice halftime play! I’m looking at the Brazil games. Will post later If I see something I like. What about you friend??

  13. shakeel
    July 13th, 2010 - 12:54

    ETOIL e 0 1

    ( REPLY )
  14. Melissa
    July 13th, 2010 - 12:56

    I’ll go for a High Stake on:

    Bohemians
    Spartak Moscow
    MSK Zilina

    Opinions are welcomed.

    ( REPLY )
  15. Nimesh
    July 13th, 2010 - 13:01

    Hey guys, I want to bet big today! Any games that you would suggest to this on???

    ( REPLY )
  16. PhilsTips
    July 13th, 2010 - 13:02

    Bohemians
    Sligo
    Rosenborg
    BATE

    Four fold for me today @3/1

    ( REPLY )
  17. Melissa
    July 13th, 2010 - 14:16

    Are you so sure of the Sligo win Phil?

    ( REPLY )
    • PhilsTips
      July 13th, 2010 - 14:58

      Quite sure, UCD are on a bad run of form and are missing some key players and have only won once out of their last 5 games, Sligo are a decent home team who are averaging 2 goals a game at home, They have already beaten UCD this season 2-0 at UCD’s ground. Nothing is a cert Mel but i fancy Sligo.

  18. Nimesh
    July 13th, 2010 - 14:44

    Anyone got any Russia Cup tips???

    ( REPLY )
    • PhilsTips
      July 13th, 2010 - 14:58

      Yes stay away from it.

    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 14:59

      hahahah

      i fully agree with phil

    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 15:02

      hey phil, ive noticed there are some other sites besides this that tip the s league, ive also noticed that some of their predictions seem to “magically” become winning ones after full time, is this common?

    • PhilsTips
      July 13th, 2010 - 15:06

      Mate i havent got a clue! let me know which sites and i’ll pay them a visit! This is the only site that ive seen Sinapore tips (maybe a few on betshoot from time to time) Why do you reckon some people are copying your tips?

    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 15:09

      nah, no ones copying my tips XD

      its just that maybe some people want a winning record, just curious if it happens alot in the gambling world

    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 15:11

      hey phil where is the money tonight by the way

      i might reinvest some of my winnings

      i heard mervue on the handicap looks good?

    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 15:14

      oh and the site is

      http://www.vitibet.com/index.php?clanek=analyzy&sekce=fotbal&liga=singapur&lang=en&tab=1&zap=1

      i could of sworn they tipped 1-1 earlier when i checked, maybe im reading it wrong XD

    • PhilsTips
      July 13th, 2010 - 15:26

      Im staying away from the Melvue game mate, They arent to bad at home, Its their away form that is shocking. Bohemians, Sligo and Rosenborg i think where the money is today mate, Handicapping Rosenborg might be a good idea.

  19. Nimesh
    July 13th, 2010 - 15:05

    lol why guys???

    ( REPLY )
  20. Mkw
    July 13th, 2010 - 15:13

    £350 double lech poznan and zilina

    ( REPLY )
  21. Nimesh
    July 13th, 2010 - 15:17

    Anyone having a go on the austian league today or on salzburg???

    ( REPLY )
  22. Nimesh
    July 13th, 2010 - 15:41

    ok thanks phil!:) Any suggestions for a high stake accumalator???

    ( REPLY )
  23. bob
    July 13th, 2010 - 16:07

    Inter Baku 0 – 0 Lech
    13.07.2010 17:00

    I got under 2

    ( REPLY )
  24. Siim
    July 13th, 2010 - 17:50

    Someone watching Zilina game, how come are they behind :/ ?

    ( REPLY )
  25. bob
    July 13th, 2010 - 17:58

    Litex Lovech - FK Rudar

    under 2.5

    ( REPLY )
  26. Alexey
    July 13th, 2010 - 18:03

    Debrecen is controlling the game, though Levadia hit the bar once. 0-0, 50. minute

    ( REPLY )
  27. Earth
    July 13th, 2010 - 18:10

    Does anyone know why Werder Bremen vs Uerdingen hasnt started?? :S

    ( REPLY )
  28. marz
    July 13th, 2010 - 20:18

    anyone else fancying HJK Helsinki tomorrow? the odds are really high…

    ( REPLY )
    • Mkw
      July 13th, 2010 - 20:49

      Hjk are down to 13/8 from 2/1 I don’t fancy them personally but yes still decent odds

    • marz
      July 13th, 2010 - 21:53

      ya, lithuanian teams at home will put up a fight but HJK at those odds is worth a bet i reckon

      lets see what ian thinks later

  29. Mkw
    July 13th, 2010 - 20:50

    Zilina eh what a choker thought they were fodder lechxwon at 6/5 a d these mugs fuck it up at 1/3 unreal !!

    ( REPLY )
  30. Michael The Toad
    July 13th, 2010 - 21:12

    Todday I placed this on bodog

    Placed 2 Team Parlay #181013185 (Placed by Web)
    Tennis – All tournaments for women (Game) Moneyline
    WTA – Prague, Czech Republic
    Medina Garrigues, Anabel -450, Tue@6:00a
    If either player retires before the match is completed then the event will be settled as no action.

    Tennis – All tournaments for women (Game) Moneyline
    WTA – Prague, Czech Republic
    Cornet, Alize +120, Tue@6:00a
    If either player retires before the match is completed then the event will be settled as no action.

    Risked US$ 56.00 to win US$ 94.58

    Now Zakopalova pulled out and basically I got no money in return, Since they lashed my winnings Is this right ? Should I be angry?

    ( REPLY )
  31. bob
    July 13th, 2010 - 21:39

    bRAZIL: Campeonato Brasileiro B

    Coritiba -200

    ( REPLY )
  32. spatgo
    July 13th, 2010 - 21:42

    Have to love Amond for Sligo. Legend!

    ( REPLY )

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