Dynamo Kiev vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam

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I really don’t like today’s card – plenty of upsets possible here and horrible odds so good luck if you wade in today!

Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League Qualifier between Dynamo Kiev and AFC Ajax Amsterdam in Ukraine. Both sides have strong tradition in European football so we should see an interesting game here one way or the other!

Gazzaev is a very good manager, to start with. He had a great deal of success with CSKA Moscow and has partially transformed Dynamo Kiev into that side, although Dynamo’s domestic displays occasionally leave people (including myself) doubting Gazzaev’s credentials. However, in European football, he’s generally very good so I expect a fairly astute display from Dynamo Kiev today. They demonstrated against AA Gent their competence in finding the goal and the attack line of Shevchenko, Milevskiy, and Yarmolenko offers a wide range of pace, youth, experience, and clinical finishing, not to mention class. Kiev have a solid enough side to do damage today and at home, you’d have to expect them to take the game to Ajax. Ukrainian football is always on the rise, especially with the constant influx of Brazilians, so don’t underestimate the hosts tonight. However, the hosts have two flaws that Ajax can and will most likely exploit – inexperienced/out-of-form goalkeepers and defending against pace – so I fancy Kiev to score and concede already.

Couple the above information with how bizarrely Ajax have started the season and we have a potential “both sides scoring” game here. Ajax aren’t playing well at all without their atypical confidence and swagger and are leaking goals for fun as a result. They barely scraped into this round against PAOK Salonika last round due to conceding stupid goals and I fancy more of the same against tough hosts Dynamo Kiev. Martin Jol has already admitted that this was the worst draw they could have gotten and whether he’s playing mind games or being serious, he’s not far wrong! Ajax really need to make use of Suarez here but without a big target man to help him out, he’s generally quite ineffectual. However, Kiev’s defence are susceptible against pace so counter-attacks should yield some joy, especially with uncertain goalkeeping, so I fancy Ajax to score at least once here.

I don’t fancy a winner in this game because it can go either way here. I’ve got scorelines in my head of 2-1, 2-2, and 1-2, so the score will no doubt be 0-0! I do like the odds on both sides scoring here, however, as both have the potential to exploit each others’ weaknesses and neither are in a good position to stop the other from playing. Dynamo have to attack and Ajax don’t know how to defend so they’ll attack too so my call here is both sides to score, although I am tempted by over 2.5 goals too.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.

Tuesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Aris Salonika vs Austria Vienna - away win at 5/2.

No secret here – I just think Austria Vienna are a lot better than Aris Salonika. Austria Vienna have one of their best sides in years and create plenty of chances whereas their hosts are very defensive and anti-football. I don’t think Vienna will have it all their own way because they’re away from home and defence isn’t their strongpoint but if this comes down to who scores the most goals, which I think it will, then the away win at 5/2 is far too long and is worth a thought.

Verdict: Austria Vienna to win at 5/2.

Universitario de Sucre vs Colo Colo - away win at 6/4.

This is a very dicey game to bet on (like most of today’s games) but there could be value here. The odds are as neutral as they are solely because of the severe altitude in Sucre, which naturally favours the hosts drastically. However, quality-wise, Colo Colo would win this game hands-down so I agree with the bookies’ pricing on this game. However, I’m still siding with the away win because on the off-chance Colo Colo adapt to conditions in Bolivia, they should win this game – they’re a much better side, basically. Bolivian football is the nadir of South American football and altitude is their only advantage, basically, which is why they get whipped on the road so often. It’s a very risky bet, basically, but I fancy Colo Colo to nick a goal and steal this against their poor hosts. Maybe take it with draw no bet, if you feel insecure!

Verdict: Colo Colo to win at 6/4.

Accumulator fodder:

Admira Wacker, Besiktas JK.

Recommended bets:

No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!

UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:

Zenit St.Petersburg vs Auxerre (7) 1-0
Rosenborg BK vs FC Copenhagen (5) 1-1
Sparta Prague vs MSK Zilina (6) 2-1
Young Boys Bern vs Tottenham Hotspur (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Dynamo Kiev vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score

UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:

Aris Salonika vs Austria Vienna (4) over 2.5 goals
Besiktas JK vs HJK Helsinki (8) -1.5 handicap

Copa Sudamericana:

Universitario de Sucre vs Colo Colo (6) 0-1
Deportivo Lara vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (5) 1-1

Austrian Liga 1:

St.Polten vs WAC/St.Andra (6) both sides to score
Admira Wacker vs Grodig (8) over 2.5 goals
Hartberg vs First Vienna (5)
Gratkorn vs Austria Lustenau (6)

Estonian Meistriliiga:

Flora Tallinn vs Sillamae Kalev (7) over 2.5 goals

French Ligue 2:

AC Ajaccio vs Le Mans (7)
Boulogne vs Nimes (6)
Chateauroux vs Le Havre (5)
Dijon FCO vs Sedan-Ardennes (6)
Grenoble Foot vs Angers SCO (6)
Nantes vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6) both sides to score
Reims vs Istres (5) draw no bet
Tours vs Clermont Foot (5)
Vannes OC vs Stade Lavallois (5)

Irish Premier League:

Bohemians vs Bray Wanderers (7) 2-0

Japanese J-League:

Albirex Niigata vs Shimizu S-Pulse (6) 1-1
Gamba Osaka vs Kashima Antlers (6) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Vegalta Sendai (5) 0-0
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Montedio Yamagata (6) 1-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!

62 thoughts on “Dynamo Kiev vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam”

  1. have whacked $50 on a multi including:
    BESIKTAS vs helsinki
    FC TRENCKWALDER ADMIRA vs sv grodig
    ZENIT ST PETERSBURG vs auxerre
    young boys vs TOTTENHAM
    @ 3/1, payout of around $200.

    tottenham are $1.70 here and are decent value, but being the only away team… are the only team im worried of. Hopefully they field a full strength side and wipe an inferior swiss team off the boards (being an arsenal man, i win whether it be monetary concerned or rivalry insults). So i could’ve settle for $1.30 draw no bet here, but i like the $50 bet for $200 return. The other legs are pretty straight forward, zenit are an excellent side (like lyon in being one of the most underrated teams in europe despite lyon getting jack squat out of the caen match), besiktas should walk all over ANY finnish side and i agree with ian in saying admira wacker are simply too good for grodig. this would be my multi of the day, good luck to all. :)

  2. Is it just me or does the Estonian Meistriliiga seem to be the safest league to bet on in terms of consistency? I don’t recall ever betting on Estonian matches but it would appear that there are few top teams there like Levadia and Flora who just whip everyone else’s arses in that league. I could be completely wrong but whenever I see the results of Levadia and Flora, they’re always winning like 4-0 and 5-0? So I’m assuming that the rest of the teams in the division are nowhere near on the same level as the few top sides. It seems like a crazy league because some of the scorelines are incredbile. Surely it’s a safe haven for people betting on overs? Or are the odds not that good because most of the games have a ridiculous amount of goals. I only bring it up now because I’m thinking about backing Flora tomorrow against Sillamäe Kalev. I’m not too sure at the minute though because it would appear that Sillamäe Kalev are a decent side as well so I’ll have to do my research into the team news of both sides. By the way, Flora have scored 29 goals in 6 games. Like, what the hell?! Maybe I’m wrong but Estonia looks like the place to be!

    What do you think, Ian? Do you ever have much success betting on Estonian matches?

    • If you know the basics of the Meistriliiga then it can be very easy although beware the odd fixed game ;)

    • Only Trans and Sillamäe (maybe Lootus also) have been fixing their games.. But Sillamäe could be a tricky opponent sometimes, they invested quite a lot to their squad and wanted to be in the title race, but always something goes wrong with them. The price is too short in my opinion for Flora to win and even shorter for over 2.5!

    • Ahhh, the old match fixing!

      Yeah, the odds are far too short today for Flora to beat Sillamäe. Last night it was 4/6 and now it’s around 2/5.

      That seems very much the case, Marz!

  4. Today I will try Tottenham over 5,5 corners on B365 @ 1.90. Spurs have a massive wingplay with Lennon and Bale, they had 10 corners against Man City on Saturday. The pitch is an artificial and small one where they play tonight, so it will help the fast direct play, and I hope it will result in Tottenham dominance, and corners.

    • Because I don’t cover it. It’s shit and unreliable. Check the FAQ section for leagues/competitions I cover

  7. looking at a double of besiktas & flora – cant decide on stake – may instead go for young boys double chance if odds go up from 2.13

  11. I don’t have a clue why this bet appeals to me so much but my gut feeling is telling me to get on it even though I don’t really want to, which is strange I know! It’s a double including Zenit St Petersburg Win and Under 2.5 Goals & Besiktas Win and Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 3.58/1. I guess it kind of makes sense in theory and the odds are fairly good but I don’t know why I have an instinct to back it so heavily?!

  12. hi guys. today im going on bohemians – 1 goal against bray and tottenham – 1 goal against young boys. odds are nearly 4/1 for the double.
    bohemians should be ok and whilst there was a shocking result a few days ago(0-2) home loss ,im sure they can dispose of the poor bray side.
    tottenham is a bit more risky and im relying on a strong start which is possible with all the attacking talent. young boys did impress in the last round, but thats the risk we take.

  14. try waiting a min after kick off and look at the in play, – 1 goal could be there then…

  15. I think that Besiktas – HJK Helsinki will be a goal fest. I don’t know exactly why, but I’m not taking Over now and I’ll wait 15′-20′ in Live to take it at good odds.

    Besiktas should win by 2 goals difference, but I’m not sure if they’ll be able to win by more, and maybe HJK has some opportunities to score… 2-1, 3-1 is my call, and I’ll try to take over in Live Market :P

  16. Ian – What do you think of Zenit St Petersburg Win & Under 2.5 Goals then? Got a chance? Or do you think Zenit will be far too good for Auxerre? Or do you think Auxerre will score at all? Because if they score then the bet is void whatever happens.

    • auxerre never score alot of goals but its hard to tell with zenit…id go for over 2.5 goals but wouldnt be shocked if it was under lol

    • kiev vs ajax though is crying out that it will be overs, both high scoring sides
      kievs last 8 out of 9 games have been over 2.5 goals
      ajaxs 6 out of 9 games have been over 2.5 goals

    • Hard to say. Both are possession sides so that tells me under but Auxerre have been shipping and scoring goals so there’s a possible over. I’d leave the game alone entirely, in all honesty – Zenit aren’t as superior to Auxerre as a lot of people are making out. I do think Zenit will win the game but barring in-play, there’s no value there.

    • Well I’ve taken a chance and gone for the Zenit St Petersburg Win and Under 2.5 Goals & Besiktas Win and Over 2.5 Goals double at odds of 3.58/1. I’ve only put £3 on it and I think I get a return of £13.75 so that’ll be a nice £10.75 profit if it does come off. Definitely worth a punt with my gut telling me to do so.

    • Alright cheers mate. I’ll have a single on them and a cheeky multiple:

      Tottenham both to score
      Zenit
      Sparta Prague
      Wrexham DNB

      Good luck everyone.

  19. Hi guys I multiple bet on (all of them to win) Besiktas, Zenit St Petersburg, Sparta Prague, Tottenham, Boulogne, Le Havre, Nantes, Reims :) What do you think

    • Austria Vienna is nearly over so I probably wouldn’t bother. Besiktas are 2-0 up – no value. Ajax is dodgy as hell.

    • wouldnt go near ajax tonight against kiev as for the other two besiktas lead 2 – 0 and austria are drawing 0 – 0 with about 20 mins left

  21. Do you guys think that Zilina can score against Sparta Praha ? I was going to bet on both team scoring in the game between Young Boys and Ajax but by mistake I took the bet on for the game between Sparta Praha vs. Zilina.

    Hope it will not matter but i am seeing that Sparta Praha don’t concede many goals so it is probably low change that Zilina will score.

    Lets see.

    • It’s a possibility as it’s a derby of sorts and Sparta aren’t that tight at the back. Depends which Zilina turns up – could be 2-1 or 4-0

  22. I think it is interesting that Young Boys played both games against Fenerbahce with 11 players against 10. Fenerbahce went one man down in both games, on 43 min at away and on 53 min at home. Fenerbahce were 2 – 1 up when they lost their player and it was 0 – 0 in the second match when the man was sent out.

    I think Young Boys would never have been through if the red cards did not come and probably we can not judge them out of the games with Fenerbahce. Pribably Totenham is a way better team that will win Young Boys quite confortable.

  23. lol Ian i thought it would have been ok for meame to comment on a game that has already finished?

    Thought was just in-play that wasnt allowed???

    Theres loads of peeps on this yesterday goin on about that they had won!

    • I’ve not got a textbook here on every single thing that can and can’t be said on here mate – I remove pointless things. Talking about bets is fine but I don’t want discussion of the game afterwards on comments. It may be a slight mention for you to say the final score but then others join in and it clogs up.

      I was at OT last night :)

    • Leiknir is favorite to win this game, but they tend to struggle in their away games and Grotta has been playing much better in their last games winning 3 at home in a row and lost their last game (which I saw) which should have ended in a scoreless draw.

      So I am a bit affraid of a draw here, but Leiknir is probably going to end in the top 2 probably with Vikingur so yes a away win for Leiknir is a good bet, but it can by really close.

  25. Is anybody going to lay bets on the Irish League Cup ? I see that Shamrock Rovers has the odd off 2.65 in beating Sligo Rovers away. It is tempting to take that bet. Is it to risky, cup games can always be hard to predict.

  26. That’s a really defensive line-up from Dynamo Kiev. I’m very tempted to take Ajax DNB at the moment.

    • Lumped on Zenit and put winnings on Ajax @3.55 which i thought was good value. You know the rest of the story. The Ajax defence let me down again (against ten men) just like when they capitulated in Salonika!! :-(

  27. I fancy the Championship & League 1 4 Folds this coming Sat.

    Cardiff 10/11
    Middlesbrough 11/10
    Southampton 4/9
    Charlton 4/6
    8.65/1

    Ian do you mind people posting tips that dont start till Weekend or does it have to be few days in between?

  28. ive just put a large stake on ajax to win the game -1 goal @2/1. i thought they were overpriced at the sart of the match but was unsure. now against 10 men, i reckon they will score.

    2/1 good value

  30. Ian have you any thoughts on the CONCACAF champs league games tonight.
    Puerto Rico Islanders v CD Olimpia
    Toronto FC v Cruz Azul
    Monterrey v Deportivo Saprissa