Ceske Budejovice vs Viktoria Plzen

Before today’s post, I’d like to take this opportunity to congratulate Barcelona for somehow completing a piece of pure magic – they’ve all but exchanged lumbering oaf Yaya Toure for classy holding midfielder Javier Mascherano and made money by doing so! I’ve no idea how they’ve pulled that off but that’s probably the best bit of transfer activity that I’ve seen this year!

Anyway, today’s card happily looks a lot better than yesterday’s card so lets see how we fare!

My featured game today is the Gambrinus Liga game between Ceske Budejovice and Viktoria Plzen. The defensive moguls of Budejovice today host the most in-form side in the Czech Republic currently and look as unprepared as ever with high levels of impotence and general anti-football tactics so I don’t hold much hope for the hosts today.

Indeed, Ceske Budejovice have played six Gambrinus Liga games so far this season with just one win along the way, drawing a massive five games! With that record in mind, it’s not hard to understand why they’ve only scored five times and conceded four times along the way. Ceske Budejovice are currently unbeaten in the division but that record frankly flatters them as they face yet another long season trying to avoid relegation. On paper, some of Ceske’s results look more impressive than they actually are. Consider that they’ve already beaten giants Sparta Prague at home this season and then consider that Sparta fielded an entire second-string due to European committments and still dominated the game, losing to the only attempt that Ceske Budejovice had on goal all game long. They’ve drawn with out-of-form Teplice and out-of-form Mlada Boleslav but they’ve still not earned a result this season that we should be genuinely impressed by. They’re not an easy side to beat, hence their current set of statistics, but they’re simply not a good side and are finally facing a side that could and should punish them today.

Viktoria Plzen have surprised me this season as I expected their heroics last season to remain as last season heroics rather than continue them into this season. They’ve well and truly proven me wrong with five wins in six Gambrinus Liga games and the manner in which they’ve done it has impressed me a lot. They bounced back from a hefty defeat in Turkey against Besiktas JK by throttling newly-promoted Hradec Kralove 3-0 away from home without even breaking sweat, thus showing mental strength. They won at giants Sparta Prague last match and their overall potency is absolutely terrifying. The only way to stop them winning at the moment is to outscore them and the Gambrinus Liga doesn’t currently have a better goalscorer than Jan Rezek of Viktoria Plzen so that could take some hard work to achieve! The pace and skill of ex-Sparta Prague winger Daniel Kolar and the experience in the middle of the park from Pavel Horvath both give Viktoria a good number of options in the final third for their arising team. Viktoria have an excellent combination of experience, ability, tenacity, and stamina and they’ve excelled this season as a result. Momentum spurs Viktoria on immensely at the moment and the should cause no end of problems for their defensive hosts today.

Now for the worrying statistics – Viktoria Plzen have never won at Ceske Budejovice. They’ve also drawn their last seven meetings with Ceske Budejovice both at home and away. However, my argument for that would be that Viktoria Plzen have never been as good as they are right now so I think the odds on the away win are good value today. If the real Viktoria Plzen turn up, I can see them scoring a few goals so handicapping the away win with -1.5 at 15/4 looks a good price here, as does winning to nil at 13/5 as Ceske Budejovice offer very little in front of goal.

Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to win at 5/4.

Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Independiente vs Arsenal de Sarandi – both sides to score at 10/11.

Independiente are undoubtedly the better of these two sides but they’re still not at their best following a rather depressing transfer window as they lost a lot of good players. That’s why they’re still without a win after three Primera Division games and points are proving hard to come by. However, they did finally claim a win against Argentinos Juniors in the Copa Sudamericana of late so they finally have some momentum to work with. Unfortunately for tonight’s hosts, their win came just two days ago and they’re sure to be tired here so I think any kind of incisive Arsenal de Sarandi attack could have a lot of joy today. Barring their Copa Sudamericana game, Independiente have conceded in every game so far this season and Arsenal de Sarandi have scored in every game they’ve played in this season so the foundations are laid out for this bet to happen. In fact, three out of Independiente’s last four home games against Arsenal have included both sides scoring and with weariness and a lack of quality sure to hinder them against a feisty but defensively-inept Arsenal de Sarandi, I fancy both sides to score in this game.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.

Argentinos Juniors vs River Plate – away win at 29/20.

I mentioned pre-season that River Plate were finally beginning to re-build and their form is starting to show it. They’re still nowhere near their best but the side are playing better with each game and they should cause problems for Argentinos Juniors tonight as a result. They still have a problem with strength in-depth, although their talented academy products tend to deputise rather well. They welcome back talismanic playmaker Ariel Arnaldo Ortega from suspension and there are even rumours that Pavone could be fit enough to finally make his debut, which is a welcome relief for River’s under-strength attack. It’s good to see Diego Buonanotte back in the side, re-affirming his potential as one of Argentina’s better emerging youngsters despite that horrific accident that ruled him out of action for many months. All in all, River are a club on the rise and three wins from three games shows that so momentum favours them too. It also aids their cause that they’re facing an Argentinos Juniors side that hasn’t had a good transfer window and as such aren’t playing well as a result. They have occasional ability but their temperament is low and they keep losing their heads, conceding goals too easily, and having men sent off in one order or another. They’ve lost three out of four games already this season and are yet to win a game although in their defence, only one of those games was at home. Either way, these aren’t the displays of champions and I fancy them to struggle against their opponents today. These two sides play out some bizarre games as was shown when River won here last year despite it being Argentinos’ best year for some time and one of River’s worst years for some time so don’t wade blindly into this one. However, there could and should be value on the away win if River take their chances tonight.

Verdict: River Plate to win at 29/20.

Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield – away win at 17/10.

Approach with caution as this is a Buenos Aires derby (like most Primera Division games!) albeit not the main one for either side. However, Boca’s attempts at re-building their defence pre-season have drastically back-fired with their defence looking more incompetent and leaky than before, conceding two goals against newly-promoted All Boys in their last game in a 2-0 defeat on neutral territory. Not only that, but Boca are desperately missing playmaker Juan Roman Riquelme, who has effectively been carrying this ailing team and they look a weak side at best with the two handicaps mentioned above. Boca are yet to win a game or keep a clean sheet this season with five goals conceded in three games and things just don’t look good for them at all.

However, for visitors Velez Sarsfield, things couldn’t look much better at all. They’ve won three consecutive games despite not dominating as they should have in some of those games because they were clinical with their chances. They won 2-1 at All Boys a couple of games ago, where Boca lost lately, and it could have seriously been 1-7 and the hosts couldn’t have complained – utter domination springs to mind. Velez were patient against impatient Argentinos Juniors last match and reaped the benefits by easing to a 2-0 win and basically, Velez have emphasised their ability to approach each game in whatever way it requires for them to win it and to do so in style. Playmaker Moralez looks as inspired as ever and talismanic striker Silva is finding the net at will so Velez look a real handful already this season, confirming the pre-season opinion of them being title favourites this time around. They’ve basically got the full package required to win the title this season and I genuinely believe that they will, particularly if their knack of winning even when not playing well continues.

This won’t be an easy game for Velez for obvious reasons but the fact that they’re actually a better side than Boca makes the odds look a little too generous for me so my call is the away win tonight, particularly with momentum supporting the bet.

Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win at 17/20.

LASK Linz vs Rapid Vienna – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.

LASK’s attack this season has proven even more ineffectual than I expected with just Maryleb and Zickler leading the line as the ageing duo continue to struggle to score goals for their club. LASK have been decent at home (defensively) barring their abject 4-3 defeat against Austria Vienna so I think they’ll try to keep it tight again today. Let’s face it – what’s their alternatives? They’ve got no depth anymore and no alternatives in attack so they’re going to struggle whatever they do. They’re missing important defender Hart and back-up striker Derdak through injury and important midfielder Schellander is a doubt although LASK will probably play him anwyay due to a lack of alternatives. Atypically, I’d be all over Rapid Vienna to blow them away but a draining but victorious tie in England mid-week against Aston Villa is sure to have tired the visitors and the fact that they’ve now lost Jelavic in attack doesn’t fill me with confidence in their attack. They’re still a good side, good enough to hold off LASK and most likely edge the win but I just don’t see where their goals are coming from. I expect a fairly low-key and uninteresting game between these two sides but with both sides really lacking in attack, I have to favour under 2.5 goals in this game.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Sturm Graz vs Wiener Neustadt – home win with -1.5 handicap at 2/1.

I rarely handicap Sturm Graz and I’m already regretting it because they’re not a big goalscoring side. However, my reasoning is that if they can’t score against one of the most inept sides (defensively) in the division then they really are in dire straits. Admittedly, they miss key midfielder Holzl today through injury but the losses for this game that interest me the most are Simkovic in midfield and Kostal in defence for Wiener Neustadt, both of which the visitors struggle to perform without. I’ve got a lot of respect for the visitors because of their enthusiasm and potency but they simply cannot defend so they should have problems against their superior hosts. All that concerns me (aside from Sturm not scoring many in general) is that the giants were in Italy a few days ago, playing against Juventus, so fatigue may be a slight factor here. However, Sturm Graz have enough depth in their squad and Wiener Neustadt are bad enough defensively to create a gap for this bet to sneak home. Wiener Neustadt already average conceding two goals per game after just five games and whereas Sturm Graz aren’t firing on all cylinders, the missing Kostal for the visitors should prove a real Achilles heel today that Sturm Graz can capitalise on.

Interestingly enough, Wiener Neustadt have never scored against Sturm Graz in the five meetings between the two clubs since the visitors today were promoted in time for the 2009/2010 season with Sturm Graz winning all three of their home games in that time, the first of which was 3-0 back in 2009. This bet is far from a dead cert but the odds of 2/1 are too generous for the superior side to win this game by two goals or more against a side that can’t defend and that is also missing one of their best defenders!

Verdict: Sturm Graz to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 2/1.

Vitebsk vs BATE Borisov – under 2.5 goals at 17/20.

Genrally speaking, Vitebsk have little interest in scoring goals; they just like to stop others scoring. It’s kept them in the Vysshaya Liga for a while so it’s hard to criticise their anti-football tactics but it’s still not good to watch. Nonetheless, it means that Vitebsk have only lost five out of eleven home games this season despite being just above the relegation zone because they occasionally some a degree of competence in defence at home and that will have to be their focal point today against a far superior BATE Borisov today. Their last two home games have gone under 2.5 goals and BATE’s last seven visits here have gone under 2.5 goals so this should be a good call today, particularly as the superior visitors don’t score many and have only just arrived back from a mid-week trip to Portugal to face Maritimo Funchal. BATE play possession football and boast the best defence in Belarus so a weary but well-organised display against their inferior hosts today should see an under 2.5 goals scoreline at the end of it at decent odds.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 17/20.

Dinamo Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev – Dinamo Minsk to lead at half-time/full-time at 7/4.

Dinamo Minsk were caught out-midweek at home against Belgium’s Club Brugge by one thing; inexperience. Giving away two penalties in the first-half and conceding three goals was a disaster for the youthful but talented hosts and they paid the price, ultimately going out of the UEFA Europa League. It’s such a shame for them because they dominated the second-half in the exact way that they should have played in the first-half, exemplifying their talents against a very good side and actually winning the second-half 2-0. Therefore, despite being undeniably disappointed, I don’t think the result will have hurt Dinamo Minsk too much. I don’t think Gurenko would have a massive job to do to lift his enthusiastic players and let’s face it – they have to win this game today to further their hopes for European football next year so I expect a highly-motivated display from the hosts. Dinamo Minsk’s recent form doesn’t look good on paper but they’ve rested a lot of players in recent times due to European committments so I wouldn’t read much into that. Dinamo Minsk have actually won the first-half in two out of their last three home games (with a full squad) in the Vysshaya Liga, including a 3-0 win against their opponents today Dnepr Mogilev so it’s not farcical to expect a similar display today. Both sides were in action mid-week and both lost their respective games but Dinamo Minsk have more experience and more depth than Dnepr Mogilev, who have often proved to be poor away from home in the Vysshaya Liga against Dinamo Minsk, losing their last three visits here. Although Dnepr are capable of putting up a resilient show, I don’t expect to see it at this late stage of the season with both sides a little tired so I have to favour the superior hosts to take the initiative in the first-half and hold it until the end of the game at decent odds of 7/4.

Verdict: Dinamo Minsk to lead at half-time/full-time at 7/4.

Racing Genk vs Lierse SK – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.

I’m running out of superlatives to describe just how well Racing Genk are playing this season with arising striking sensation Jelle Vossen leading the line! They’ve simply looked full of goals and have terrorised every side that they’ve faced, including a very experienced Porto side in Europe mid-week, eventually losing 4-2 after a good display. I figured it would take much longer for Genk to integrate their new signings but they’ve adapted immediately and they actually look genuine title contenders if they maintain their current trends. They’ve won all four Eerste Klasse games so far this season with an average of just below four goals scored per game so God help Lierse today! Lierse haven’t started life in the Eerste Klasse as they’d have liked with four consecutive defeats and an average of two goals conceded per game. They know there is more to come from themselves and their wealthy chairman knows that too so they’re going to have to be very careful ultimately. Lierse have even signed target man Wesley Sonck from Club Brugge lately and there’s a chance he’ll play today but it should be too soon for him to make an impact despite his unquestionable experience. However, as much as I respect the battling visitors, the hosts are playing so well at the moment and are scoring against everyone so I can’t see how this game will end as anything but a home win. My bet is for Genk to win by two goals or more at decent odds of 4/5 although I’d leave it of the odds drop further.

Verdict: Racing Genk to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 4/5.

Fluminense vs Sao Paulo – home win at 7/10.

The acquisition of Deco has simply strengthened Fluminense even further and they frankly look unstoppable as a result. They turned a droll and eventless game at Goias last match into a 3-0 drubbing from nowhere thanks to individual brilliance and with thirteen games now gone without defeat, it’s hard to oppose Fluminense, particularly as they’ve won eleven of those games. They’ve won six out of seven at home already this season and average scoring nearly two per home game so why shouldn’t they win this one at a canter? They’ve beaten better sides than the current Sao Paulo side in recent times so I really fancy them to do so tonight, even to the point of taking the handicap, as unthinkable as it may seem when looking at the names alone. However, the problems of Sao Paulo have been well-documented by myself on here over the past few weeks as they labour to draws and defeats without influential playmaker Hernanes to provide a creative spark and make something happen, not to mention the out-of-form striker Dagoberto being perpetually on the bench. They’re without a win in four consecutive games and although their defence is holding firm, they’re simply not scoring goals, which basically makes them sitting ducks against the likes of Fluminense today.

Forget the names here – on quality and momentum, Fluminense shouldn’t be longer than 1/2 for this game so there should be value in the home win tonight.

Verdict: Fluminense to win at 7/10.

Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio - home win at evens.

Gremio’s chances of relegation increase every week as they continually fail to find the net on a consistent basis, not to mention their footballing suicide in defence. They’re one of just three Serie A sides yet to win an away game this season with four defeats and four draws from eight away games and that doesn’t look likely to change today. They average conceding nearly two goals per away game and scoring less than a goal per away game so their big name counts for nothing here as they’ve got nothing to back it up quality-wise at the moment. They’ve won just one Serie A game in their last ten games so they’re really struggling and I expect that to happen again tonight. Their hosts, Atletico Paranaense, aren’t the most consistent of sides but they do tend to make their home form count as four wins in seven home games this season suggests. They keep it tight and like to get physical with their opponents at home, which is the worst possible opponent for a lacklustre Gremio at the moment, so I fancy the hosts rather a lot here. They’ve won three out of their last five home games with only Sao Paulo and Cruzeiro avoiding defeat here whereas Santos, Flamengo, and Botafogo were less fortunate. Atletico bring good momentum into this game following back-to-back wins, two clean sheets along the way, and solid home form so I fancy the hosts to win this one tonight although I’d leave it if the odds drop further.

Verdict: Atletico Paranaense to win at evens.

Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Cali – home win at 17/20.

Cucuta Deportivo have started their Primera A campaign very well indeed with three wins from three home games and they’ve averaged scoring two goals per home game as a result. They’re not that good a side; mid-table fodder usually, in my eyes. However, momentum is the king of all footballing advantages in South America and Cucuta certainly have that tonight so I’m with them here. Deportivo Cali are the bigger of the two sides but haven’t shown it for many years because of continually poor away form and would you believe it – they’ve already lost two out of two on the road this season without scoring a single goal. The head-to-head record between the two clubs isn’t overly impressive for this bet but momentum favours the hosts tonight, as does potency, so the home win really should be decent value, especially if experienced striker Carpintero starts.

Verdict: Cucuta Deportivo to win at 17/20.

Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Deportes Quindio – home win at 3/4.

I might get bitten in the ass here but these odds smart of no homework being done by the bookies. Atletico Junior are one of the biggest and best sides in Colombia and the reason for that is because they’re utterly dominant at home. They’ve not had a great start to the season thus far; that’s the only reason that I can imagine for the bookies giving such generous odds. However, to dismiss their ability to such an extent looks ridiculous in my eyes – Atletico shouldn’t be longer than 1/2 here! They’ve only lost once in their last fifteen home games in the Primera A and the only side apart from an inspired Real Cartagena (who won 3-0 here last season) to take points off Atletico was a very good Deportes Tolima last match in a 1-1 draw. Atletico are still a very good side, especially at home, and have won this fixture for five out of the last seven campaigns so I really fancy them here. Quindio have started their campaign well, admittedly, but only in their home games – they’ve lost both of their away games without scoring a goal so I really don’t fancy them to upset the odds against their superior hosts today.

Verdict: Atletico Junior Barranquilla to win at 3/4.

Alki vs Anorthosis Famagusta – away win at 31/50.

There’s not much you can’t see from the statistics here; Anorthosis are simply a better side. The odds aren’t spectacular for an away game but then again, Anorthosis aren’t away from home here, are they? The bookies seem to have missed that one – Alki are sharing Anorthosis’ ground for the season – so this is actually a home game for the giants. If Anorthosis were listed on the left of your screen at the bookies then they’d be 1/4 or 1/5 to win this game so you can see why I think there’s value here, particularly with Anorthosis already having competitive match experience under ther belt this season.

Verdict: Anorthosis Famagusta to win at 31/50.

Nordsjaelland vs Aalborg BK – home win a 11/10.

Neither of these two sides are in top condition but let’s face it – Nordsjaelland are far better off than Aalborg at the moment. Nordsjaelland are often guilty of trying to walk the ball into the net and they’ve also on a seemingly bad run of form to boot. They’ve lost four out of their last five games, in fact. However, more closely examined, the four sides that have beaten them were Sporting Clube de Lisboa,  Brondby, FC Copenhagen, and Midtylland, so it’s far from an embarassing list. Nordsjaelland should have regained some momentum following their emphatic 5-0 win at amateurs Vanlose in the Landspokal mid-week and they’ll need it too as they’ve got a rather unfortunate record of never having beaten Aalborg BK at home – only away. That record could and should be set to change, however, as Aalborg have a crisis in camp following terrible recent displays and little to no goal threat whatsoever. I’d like to be exaggerating at this point but they were absolutely abysmal in their defeat against Esbjerg and rarely troubled their poor opponents throughout. Only emerging talent Schwartz in attack represents any kind of threat for Aalborg BK but a semi-decent Nordsjaelland side should be able to handle him. As Aalborg’s last Superligaen game proved – a lack of service for the promising youngster inevitably means he cannot score and if he doesn’t then nobody will at the moment. Aalborg have some good players in their side but they’re really not showing it at the moment.

Bluntly, I don’t expect Aalborg to score here as Nordsjaelland should be able to keep them out rather easily. The big question is will Nordsjaelland score? They’re certainly good enough to so I’ll take a chance on them today. If you feel bold, you can try your hand at Nordsjaelland to win to nil at 11/5 because I just cannot see how Aalborg will score here.

Verdict: Nordsjaelland to win at 11/10.

AC Horsens vs FC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen to win to nil at 27/20.

Horsens finally got brought back down to earth by experienced Superligaen campaigners SonderjyskE in their last Superligaen outing, losing 2-0. Despite a hefty 4-1 win at Braband in the Landspokal mid-week, that defeat has knocked Horsens off-course, which is pleasing as they should now resort to their usual impotent selves. They’re a battling side and are rarely easy to beat but their lack of consistent goalscoring ability makes them sitting ducks, particularly in games like this where their opponent is by far superior. A half-hearted OB Odense display here a few weeks ago still caused Horsens a lot of problems despite the eventual outcome so imagine what a determined Copenhagen can do! Copenhagen enter this game on the back of a win in the Scandinavian derby against Norwegian champions Rosenborg BK and as a result, they’ve reached the UEFA Champions League Group Stage, which will leave them understandably buoyant. They’ve been outstanding in the Superligaen of late too, winning three consecutive games (including a trip to title rivals OB Odense) and keeping two clean sheets along the way. Copenhagen are very much the champions in this country and often show it so I expect a champions’ display today. Copenhagen should manipulate the ball well and take their chances in their usual clinical fashion so I thoroughly expect a Copenhagen win here against their valiant but rather talentless opponents. The risk here is whether they’ll keep a clean sheet or not but for me, with the most impotent attack in the division (despite the contradicting statistics) facing arguably the best defence, it’s worth taking the away win to nil at good odds.

Verdict: FC Copenhagen to win to nil at 27/20.

Skive vs Roskilde – home win at 17/20.

The beloved club of The Footy Tipster are back in action as mighty Skive host Roskilde! Fresh from an impressive and goal-filled display against rivals Viborg, Skive won 4-2 at Hirtshals in the Landspokal in a typically relentless attacking display with little care for defending. I like that about Skive as they play to their strengths and few sides in this division can boast such a high level of potency that Skive currently do. Skive have a great belief in themselves too, as a 4-2 win against Hobro a couple of weeks ago indicated despite trailing 2-0 in the game. Skive have now won four out of their last five games and only an impressive Viborg side has halted that run (albeit temporarily) so Skive are very much on a momentum burst and frankly excel when they’re on one. Little Roskilde have got to be afraid of Skive today as they’ve now lost four consecutive games this season in all competitions and have been outclassed in each game. Roskilde are scoring goals, to their credit, but to face Skive without any kind of defensive organisation is asking for trouble and I think they’re going to encounter it too. The fact that Roskilde are scoring goals despite losing is all that puts me off taking Skive -1.5 at 9/4 (although Skive should really score enough to beat it anyway!) but the home win still looks a real gem here – Skive should be much shorter here!

Verdict: Skive to win at 17/20.

Aston Villa vs Everton – over 2.5 goals at evens.

McDonald to manage Aston Villa full-time? Not for me. It’s still early in his managerial career, if indeed it can be called that as he’s not been officially appointed as manager yet, but he’s not shown me personally that he’s ready to be in charge of this big club. They’ve defended like idiots in the majority of their games and conceding three against a fairly average Rapid Vienna side mid-week was the icing on the cake, really, as the goals all stemmed from defensive mayhem. Any side that can concede six goals against newly-promoted Newcastle United has problems and whereas their goalscoring ability isn’t really in question, their defensive qualities most certainly are. I think Villa’s only good news ahead of this game is that Everton don’t start the Premier League season well traditionally and the fact that they’re yet to win a Premier League game emphasises that point. However, tactically-astute David Moyes should really have a field day against Villa’s dody back-line today and Everton certainly have the ability to do them damage today. However, Everton themselves aren’t firing on all cylinders yet and could be caught out defensively as they were against both Wolverhampton Wanderers and Blackburn Rovers respectively so I’m not seeing the value in the away win, sadly. However, where I do see value is in taking over 2.5 goals at evens as both sides are capable of scoring and conceding at the moment. Additionally, five out of the last six meetings between these two arising sides have gone over 2.5 goals, including the last two clashes between the two sides in Birmingham, so my call here is over 2.5 goals at surprisingly generous odds.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.

MP Mikkeli vs RoPS Rovaniemi - “Dutch” bet.

This is arguably the strangest bet I’ve ever made but I like it in a bizarre way. Basically, MP Mikkeli are the worst side in the Ykkonen because they cannot score goals and their defence is somewhat leaky. Their visitors are RoPS Rovaniemi, who are unquestionably the best side in the division but they’re on a really bizarre run of five consecutive draws, conceding once and scoring once along the way. It’s a remarkable record because RoPS are by far and away the most potent side in the division, not to mention the fact that they don’t care about defending whatsoever so four clean sheets is a strange record for them to possess. Both sides aren’t playing anywhere near enough to their respective standards and something has to give here. For me, it’s either going to end as yet another bizarre draw or as an absolute destruction by RoPS, which is threatening to arrive, so they should beat the handicap. Therefore, I like the idea of making a “Dutch” bet by laying RoPS Rovaniemi and also backing RoPS to win by two goals or more because if they get one goal in this game then the floodgates should open.

Verdict: “Dutch” bet – lay RoPS Rovaniemi at 29/20 and back RoPS Rovaniemi with -1.5 goal handicap at 23/20.

Girondins de Bordeaux vs Olympique de Marseille – away win with draw no bet at evens.

The news for Bordeaux is getting worse by the week! You could be mistaken for thinking that Blanc’s departure wouldn’t be too damaging when the club appointed experienced ex-AS Monaco manager Jean Tigana in charge but the players they’ve lost are severely hampering Bordeaux’s ascent in the Ligue 1 table. First they lost target man Chamakh to Arsenal, which was in a galling free transfer deal. That in itself hinders the Bordeaux attack immensely and piled the pressure on Argentinian target man Fernando Cavenaghi, who responded to that pressure by signing for Real Mallorca on loan recently. To top that off, Bordeaux have sold Gourcuff to Olympique Lyonnais and as he was the heartbeat of the side, the only one who can create chances on a consistent basis, this is beyond a massive blow for Bordeaux. Fair enough, they’ve claimed a hefty sum for his services but are they really going to be able to sign a replacement for him? I doubt it – they don’t have the pulling power here. So we have a Bordeaux side with no goalscorers and no creativity – oh dear! They’re not in a good place currently and although Tigana moved swiftly to sign Niger striker Maazou on loan from CSKA Moscow, it’s too little too late, in my opinion, and I expect Bordeaux to struggle in this game as a result.

Marseille have only struggled here in the past because of the tactical ingenuity of Laurent Blanc but as he’s out of the picture now, I fancy Marseille to finally prove their superiority over Bordeaux. However, as fate would have it, Marseille have a mini-crisis of their own ahead of this game following a poor start to their Ligue 1 campaign. Some displays have been poor and others unfortunate but either way, Marseille need to get going swiftly! All that can comfort them at the moment is that none of their rivals are playing particularly well as Ligue 1 fails to settle into any kind of rhythm so Marseille won’t be too upset so far. I attribute Marseille’s decline of late to their transfer activities and the unrest caused as a result of them. We saw Ben Arfa childishly go on strike over a move to Newcastle United (which has now been actioned on a season-long loan) and we also saw star striker Niang depart to Fenerbahce so Marseille fans must have been wondering what hit them. Marseille need to move quickly to secure Valbuena to keep creativity in their midfield and to their credit, they’re doing that. Their next issue was resolving their striker crisis but instead of pissing about like Bordeaux did, they moved quickly and bought two proven Ligue 1 strikers for high sums – Gignac from Toulouse and highly-sought after Loic Remy from OGC Nice. These two are going to have to learn to gel quickly but it aids their cause massively that both have played in Ligue 1 for ages so I don’t think their adjustment period will take long at all. Marseille have a good enough nucleus to adapt them into their side quickly and I think that’s going to be instrumental to Marseille winning this game tonight.

This game is basically the opportune moment for Marseille to rid themselves of their demons of late and to take advantage of an ailing Bordeaux side with little to offer in attack. I don’t see Marseille blowing Bordeaux away; they’re not yet in a position to do so. However, Deschamps’ side is unquestionably the better of the two on show today and have far more chance of doing damage as a result so taking Marseille to win with draw no bet looks a good bet tonight.

P.S. Marseille have also signed Azpilicueta from Osasuna over the summer, which is a very good signing. He can play at right-back or on the right-wing and is a pacey player with plenty of ability. I’m actually a bit pissed off that Marseille signed him as I really wanted Bilbao to pick him up but c’est la vie!

Verdict: Olympique de Marseille to win with draw no bet at evens.

Ergotelis vs Asteras Tripolis – home win at 23/20.

Ergotelis have made few changes over summer but those they have made have only improved the side. The continuity of their side will undoubtedly benefit them with so many clubs around them chopping and changing on a regular basis so I have a lot of respect for Ergotelis ahead of this game. Their opponents Asteras Tripolis are a prime example of why Ergotelis prevail where others fail. Asteras have lost the likes of top goalscorer Cesarec and midfielder Cardozo and those will hurt them this season, particularly the sale of Cesarec. I just don’t see where Asteras’ goals are going to come from, to be blunt. They were weak on the road last season and if their home form last year was a little weaker than they’d have been relegated and that could be what they’re facing this season if they’re not careful. Their hosts aren’t exceptional but they’re experienced and well-organised, not to mention reliable at home, so for me the odds on the home win are a little generous and could be good value today.

Verdict: Ergotelis to win at 23/20.

Debreceni VSC vs Fehervar – home win at 11/10.

It’s still early in the Soproni Liga season so I find it hard to substantiate this bet other than that Debreceni VSC are simply the better side. Both sides have lost some players over the summer but both are still strong sides and will undoubtedly be competing for the title later in the season. However, Debreceni VSC are the reigning champions because they’re the better side and I don’t see that as having changed this season. They’re having a good European campaign, having just qualified for the UEFA Europa League Group Stage, and will be buoyant as a result. Debreceni VSC always bring goals to their games and although Fehervar are capable of matching that fact on occasion, I’ve seen them lacking more times than I’ve seen them convincing this season with their draw at Siofok being a game that stands out as an example. Fehervar are a good side but they’re no Debreceni VSC, which is why they’ve lost six out of their last seven trips here and also lost the Super Cup earlier in the season without even scoring so Fehervar should really line-up defensively here, although I’m not sure if they will do or if they’ll feel they’re equal to Debreceni VSC and go and attack them. Either way, I have to favour a superior Debreceni VSC for as long as the odds remain at a generous level so the home win is my call here.

Verdict: Debreceni VSC to win at 11/10.

AC Milan vs Lecce - Lecce to win with +1.5 handicap at 7/10.

This bet follows similar lines as my tip for Cesena +1.5 at AS Roma yesterday although AC Milan don’t have the advantage of being as good as AS Roma are due to their ageing players and lack of investment. Only Pato and Ronaldinho are sparks of hope for AC Milan nowadays with their defence looking particularly susceptible against pace and their attack looking non-existant against well-organised sides. Well, Lecce may be a yo-yo side in Italy but well-organised is something that they often are. They’ve got some very experienced players and have been clever in the transfer market too, signing former Lecce youth product Chevanton on a free transfer, his international team-mates Grossmuller (midfielder) from Schalke 04 and pacey attacker Olivera from Penarol, impressive Piatti from Independiente, and solid Norwegian centre-back Regniussen from Schalke 04, just to name a few! They’ve not made any substantial losses during the transfer window and given that this is their cup final, I expect them to give AC Milan a torrid time today. AC Milan could edge this or Lecce could frustrate them as Cesena did to AS Roma yesterday but either way, the bet looks good enough value to be worthy of your consideration today.

AC Milan miss Oddo and Flamini today whereas Lecce miss Fabiano and new signing Olivera. New loan signing Ibrahimovic is not yet available for AC Milan although he should prove to be a valuable acquisition for a fairly stagnant AC Milan side.

Verdict: Lecce to win with +1.5 goal handicap at 7/10.

Sampdoria vs Lazio – home win at 11/10.

Sampdoria have already played two competitive games this season against good opposition so they already have an advantage over Lazio today. It’s not as though they needed an advantage, however – they’re a very good side that is heading steadily back toward the pinnacle of Serie A football and they demonstrated that sufficiently enough last season for me to believe they’ll reproduce it this season. Sampdoria were particularly dominant at home last season with thirteen wins in nineteen home games and only champions Internazionale and Palermo could match their unbeaten run at home. Barring the departure of experienced goalkeeper Castellazzi to Internzionale and of course manager Del Neri to Juventus, Sampdoria are largely unchanged and still boast a formidable attack containing Italian “badboy” Cassano and powerhouse Pazzini. There’s a lot of good players in this side, to be blunt, and I expect a good season from them as a result.

Visitors Lazio had a dire campaign so it’s no surprise to anyone that they’ve been amongst the busier clubs in the transfer window. Impressively, they’ve managed to capture Sao Paulo playmaker Hernanes, which is a great sigining for a club devoid of creativity. They’ve also brought in experienced Australian midfielder Mark Bresciano from Palermo and Basque full-back Javier Garrido from Manchester City to replace the City-bound Kolarov. Cribari was a decent acquisition from Empoli as he’s played in Italy for many years now and Uruguayan defender Pintos could prove an astute signing from San Lorenzo de Almagro if he improves his overall workrate. Barring the departure of Kolarov, Lazio have only really lost Makinwa from the “notable” section so they should see a partial improvement this season, particularly with some impressive signings already having been made. Again, the big question is going to be “can they convert their chances?” and that will ultimately decide their season. For me, they still need another striker but the addition of Hernanes gives them more chances and thus more goals so Lazio have accomodated for their striking problems in at least one way. Unfortunately for Lazio, I think the tricky trip to Genova has come too soon for them as they’ve lost here for two consecutive years and the hosts are in much better shape than they are so my call here is a home win.

Incidentally, Lazio miss Bresciano, Cribari, and Garrido for this game whereas Sampdoria miss Tissone, Cassano, Semioli, Poli, and Ziegler. Cassano is a fairly big loss for Sampdoria but as long as Pazzini starts, I’m still happy with the bet.

Verdict: Sampdoria to win at 11/10.

Zalgiris Vilnius vs Ekranas Panevezys - away win at 7/5.

This game should really be a case of “men vs boys”. Zalgiris have done well following promotion as they seek to build a squad worthy of the big name of Zalgiris Vilnius. To their credit, they’re not far away from achieving it following a successful season. However, the fact is that they’re still not quite at the level of the likes of Ekranas, Suduva, and Vetra so I expect them to struggle in games like this. They rely far too heavily on star striker Jersovas and look incapable of winning without him. Unfortunately for the able striker, he’s up against the meanest defence in Lithuania with reigning champions Ekranas having conceded just five goals in nine away games this season, winning seven of those games. Zalgiris’ home record is impressive but it’s worth noting that the two sides they’ve failed to beat at home in the A Lyga have been giants Suduva Marijampole (1-1) and their opponents today Ekranas Panevezys (0-1). Zalgiris have looked weary of late in their perpetual battle in overcoming smaller clubs and that was emphasised mid-week as Banga Gargzdai took Zalgiris to extra-time and then penalties in the Lithuanian Cup before eventually overcoming their hosts. Therefore, we have a very tired Zalgiris side and a potentially demoralised side too. You cannot approach a game against Ekranas without anything but 100% committment and fitness and Zalgiris simply don’t have that at the moment. Ekranas are the top dogs in Lithuania and virtually every statistic supports that fact too. Their experienced attacking duo Rimkus and Varnas are responsible for the vast majority of their incision and will no doubt be key today if Ekranas are to stamp their authority on their title challengers and let’s face it – they’re definitely capable of doing so against their weary hosts. For me, the away win represents good value today, particularly with Ekranas in such good form and their hosts looking quite unreliable at the moment.

Verdict: Ekranas Panevezys to win at 7/5.

De Graafschap vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam - over 3.5 goals at evens.

This one speaks for itself, really! Two sides that cannot defend and one of them is capable of scoring a lot of goals. Both sides have played in three Eredivisie games so far this season and each side’s respective games have included at least three goals per game. If this game was mid-season, I’d be handicapping Ajax like there’s no tomorrow but they’ve not convinced me that they can play without Pantelic yet and their new strikers are yet to adjust so I’ll refrain from doing so although I have to expect an Ajax win against weak De Graafschap. Either way, there should be masses of goals here so over 3.5 goals looks an intriguing bet today.

Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at evens.

Otelul Galati vs Brasov – home win at 4/5.

Brasov are the latest side to try and take on the meanest defence in Romania and I don’t fancy their chances of breaking through it much today. Only Otelul and Rapid Bucharest are yet to concede a goal at home and Otelul have won both home games as a result of their strong and well-organised defence. They’re not a great side, Otelul, but they’re very enthusiastic, well-organised, and tenacious so they tend to get their own way barring being outclassed. Their constant pressurising and hounding, particularly at home, is very successful and should be today too as they’re a better side than Brasov and they’re in much better shape too. Otelul have only conceded twice this season and both of those goals were at newly-promoted Universitatea Cluj last match so it takes something of a monumental effort to displace the resilient hosts. In four consecutive home games against Brasov, Otelul have managed to score and they’ve won two of them, drawing the other two. However, Brasov’s continued financial issues mean that the club loses its better players each season and this year is no exception. They’ve performed well without some of them, to their credit, but their problems are still very much present. Brasov’s impressive record thus far is one more of fortune than anything with their two wins coming at newly-promoted Targu Mures and at home against newly-promoted Universitatea Cluj. You can look at their statistics and see that they’ve held Steaua Bucharest and Unirea Urziceni at home respectively and be impressed or you can look and see the dire straits that both clubs were in at the time and not be surprised that they happened. Otelul should present a very different and more organised challenge today that I just don’t believe Brasov can handle. Otelul are marginally the better side but present a much more united front so for me, the home win at 4/5 shows value in what should be a fairly low-scoring encounter.

Verdict: Otelul Galati to win at 4/5.

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Zenit St.Petersburg – away win at evens.

I like this bet more than I should, really, but there does appear to be value here. Yury Semin is a great manager but his Lokomotiv Moscow side simply aren’t playing well at the moment. Their over-reliance on Ukrainian international midfielder Aliev has peaked and the club are struggling now that he’s not carrying them. They crashed out of the UEFA Europa League mid-week against Swiss minnows Lausanne Sports after they were dragged through extra-time and ultimately lost on penalties. Lokomotiv now haven’t won in seven consecutive games in all competitions, including two derby defeats against Dinamo Moscow and Spartak Moscow respectively so morale is low at the moment. They’re simply not scoring goals and as a result they’re getting caught out and that’s what I expect toda too, particularly after their gruelling mid-week game. Zenit St.Petersburg were also disappointing mid-week, crashing out of their UEFA Champions League campaign against French side Auxerre in a bad-tempered affair. However, this club hasn’t invested masses of money to not compete in European competition on a consistent basis so expect a fully-focused Zenit side today as they bid to win the Premier League, which they really should be able to do. Unlike Lokomotiv Moscow, Zenit St.Petersburg don’t have just one match-winner; they have several. Zenit heads may have dropped after their defeat mid-week but their ability and organisation certainly hasn’t so I fancy them to pile further misery upon Semin’s Lokomotiv, particularly with their good record here. This is a rather risky call so approach with caution but the odds are good enough to take a chance on today as I expect Zenit to control the game and take their chances.

Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win at evens.

Espanyol vs Getafe – home win at 21/20.

In a fairly quiet transfer window, Espanyol bode farewell to talismanic striker Raul Tamudo as he signed for San Sebastian outfit Real Sociedad, ending the weeks of saga between him and the club. It was a sad way for the club legend to depart but I guess some players are just like that. They’ve also sold Ben Sahar to Hapoel Tel-Aviv and they’ve replaced him with Sergio Garcia from Real Betis Balompie, which is an excellent signing for Espanyol as they lacked a good striker at times last season. I think he should finally complete the puzzle that Pochettino has been facing for over a year and we should finally see Espanyol start to progress and move on after the death of captain Daniel Jarque. They’re a good side, Espanyol, especially so at home and should prove so today, particularly with Sergio Garcia raring to go in attack.

However, the predominant part of this bet stems from Getafe playing 120 minutes in Cyprus just a few days ago as they were locked in a dual with Cypriot giants APOEL Nicosia before eventually progressing to the latter stages of the UEFA Europa League in extra-time. Getafe don’t have enough strength in-depth to deal with that nowadays so they should suffer today against a difficult Espanyol side. The signings of both Colunga and Arizmendi in summer will boost their ailing attack but the departure of Pedro Leon, Kepa, and Roberto Soldado are going to hit them really hard from an attacking perspective with Soldado being their primary target man and Leon being a strong creative force. This weakened Getafe side are going to have to adjust quickly to not being as flambuoyant as normal if they intend to avoid the relegation dogfight but I don’t think they’re going to have enough time to launch any kind of presentable opposition for Espanyol today given that fatigue is an issue and that their hosts are a tough side to face at the best of times.

With the above in mind, I have to favour Espanyol to win this one today. Espanyol only miss Mattoni although goalkeeper Kameni is a doubt whereas Getafe miss Mane through suspension and Casquero, Kas, and Mario through injury.

Verdict: Espanyol to win at 21/20.

Real Sociedad vs Villarreal – Real Sociedad to get more yellow cards at 21/20.

This bet is entirely based on Real Sociedad having a team of what I can only describe as “nutters”. Diego Rivas and Mikel Aranburu in the middle of the park enjoy meaty challenges as the physical side of football is generally all that Real Sociedad are good at nowadays as Bilbao have plundered most of their good players by now. Sociedad also have another nutter called Bueno in attack, who doesn’t enjoy meaty challenges per se – he just likes being booked. Mikel Gonzalez in defence loves to rough up his oppoenents and in general, Real Sociedad are a very physical side, especially at home, and on the opening day of their retun to the Primera Liga, they’d be eaten alive by their fans if they gave anything but 110% here. Villarreal are a very different side to Real Sociedad; cool, calm, and composed. They play possession football and don’t tend to get involved in brawls, unlike their feisty hosts. I expect Villarreal to control a good deal of the play today although there should be some tension here, not only from the war-mongering Basques but also because Joseba Llorente is set to start for his home club (Real Sociedad) against his former employers in the opening game of the season so this should be quite the feisty encounter. Villarreal are the better side here, make no mistake, but I don’t see any value in 1X2 here. As I expect Villarreal to have more of the ball, I think Sociedad are going to resort to their usual tricks to get the ball back and will inevitably get more yellow cards than their opponents so the chances of Real Sociedad earning more yellow cards looks good to me today.

Verdict: Real Sociedad to get more yellow cards at 21/20.

Assyriska Sodertalje vs Degerfors – home win at 3/4.

Assyriska haven’t set the Superettan alight with consistently good displays this season but what they have done is stamped their authority at home with seven wins in eleven games, scoring nearly two goals per game on average. Only Landskrona BoIS and league leaders IFK Norrkoping have won more home games than Assyriska in the Superettan so they’re quite the force at home. They’ve won three out of their last four home games, one of which was against a good GIF Sundsvall side, so momentum does favour them today. They won 3-0 at Vasby United last time out so they’ve got enough here to give Degerfors a tough time today. Newly-promoted Degerfors have really struggled since they sold talented Bertilsson to Kalmar in May and now find themselves on a slippery slope with just one win in their last ten games, losing seven times along the way. They’re not scoring enough goals and because the ball isn’t in their attack long enough to cause damage without Bertilsson, the ball comes back at them even more and their defence gets exposed, hence Degerfors conceding more goals. They’ve scored just once in their past four games and have conceded seven times so it’s safe to say that they’re really struggling at the moment and against a strong unit like Assyriska  Sodertalje, I can only see that getting worse today. For me, the home win is priced too generously here so that’s my recommendation today.

Verdict: Assyriska Sodertalje to win at 3/4.

Accumulator fodder:

Sturm Graz, BATE Borisov, Dinamo Minsk, AA Gent, Racing Genk, Fluminense, Colo Colo, Atletico Junior Barranquilla, Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota, Dinamo Zagreb, Apollon Limassol, Anorthosis Famagusta, FC Copenhagen, Skive, EB/Streymur, Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Suduva Marijampole, America, Odd Grenland Skien, Ranheim, Universidad San Martin, Juan Aurich, Alianza Lima, Pogon Szezecin, Porto, Sporting Braga, CSKA Moscow, Lausanne Sports, Shakhtar Donetsk, Dynamo Kiev, Club Nacional de Montevideo, Deportivo Tachira, Deportivo Petare, The New Saints.

Recommended bets:

Viktoria Plzen, FC Copenhagen, and Skive at 5/1.

Fluminense, Atletico Junior Barranquilla, and Universidad San Martin at 3/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Independiente vs Arsenal de Sarandi (6) 2-1
Argentinos Juniors vs River Plate (6) 0-1
Olimpo vs Racing Club Avellaneda (5) 1-1
Boca Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game

Australian A-League:

Gold Coast United vs Melbourne Victory (6) 2-2
Melbourne Heart vs Perth Glory (6) 1-1

Austrian Bundesliga:

LASK Linz vs Rapid Vienna (6) under 2.5 goals
Austria Vienna vs Wacker Innsbruck (6) both sides to score
Sturm Graz vs Wiener Neustadt (8) -1.5 handicap

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:

Dinamo Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev (8) 2-0
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Dinamo Brest (6) 2-1
Vitebsk vs BATE Borisov (8) under 2.5 goals

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Westerlo vs Club Brugge (7) 1-1
AA Gent vs Germinal Beerschot (8) 2-0
Racing Genk vs Lierse SK (8) -1.5 handicap

Brazilian Serie A:

Corinthians vs Vitoria (7) under 2.5 goals
Guarani vs Flamengo (6) 0-0
Atletico Mineiro vs Palmeiras (5) 1-2
Fluminense vs Sao Paulo (8) 2-0
Atletico Goianiense vs Avai (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio (6) 1-0

Bulgarian A PFG:

Sliven vs CSKA Sofia (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Litex Lovech vs Akademik Sofia (7) 2-1

Chilean Primera Division:

Audax Italiano vs O’Higgins (7) over 2.5 goals
Nublense vs Colo Colo (8) 1-2

Colombian Primera A:

Cortulua vs Envigado (4) 1-0
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs La Equidad Bogota (8) 2-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Deportes Quindio (8) 2-0
Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Cali (7) 2-0

Croatian Prva Liga:

Split vs Hajduk Split (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Dinamo Zagreb vs Cibalia Vinkovci (8) 2-1

Cypriot Division 1:

Ethnikos Achnas vs A.E.Paphos (5) 1-1
Apollon Limassol vs Doxa (8) 2-0
Alki vs Anorthosis Famagusta (8) 0-2

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Usti nad Labem vs Bohemians 1905 (5) 1-1
Jablonec vs Slovacko (7) 2-1
Ceske Budejovice vs Viktoria Plzen (7) 0-2
Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec (6) 1-1

Danish Superligaen:

Nordsjaelland vs Aalborg BK (7) 2-0
Randers vs SonderjyskE (6) 2-1
Lyngby vs Brondby (6) 1-2
AC Horsens vs FC Copenhagen (8) 0-2

Danish 1st Division:

Hjorring vs Fredericia (6) draw no bet
Skive vs Roskilde (8) -1.5 handicap
Vejle vs Bronshoj (6)
AB Copenhagen vs Viborg (6)
Naestved vs Hvidovre (6) both sides to score
Fyn vs Kolding (4)

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Emelec Guayaquil vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-1

English Premier League:

Bolon Wanderers vs Birmingham City (6) 1-1
Liverpool vs West Bromwich Albion (7) 2-0
Sunderland vs Manchester City (6) 1-1
Aston Villa vs Everton (5) over 2.5 goals

Faroese Meistaradeildin:

EB/Streymur vs AB Argir (8) 2-0
B71 Sandur vs HB Torshavn (7) 1-2
B36 Torshavn vs Vikingur Gotu (5) over 2.5 goals
IF Fuglafjordur vs Suduroy (7) 2-0

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

AC Oulu vs Inter Turku (5) 1-1
VPS Vaasa vs FC Honka Espoo (6) 1-2

Finnish Ykkonen:

Espoo vs KooTeePee Kotka (5) under 2.5 goals
MP Mikkeli vs RoPS Rovaniemi (7)

French Ligue 1:

LOSC Lille vs OGC Nice (7) 1-0
AS Monaco vs Auxerre (6) 0-0
Sochaux vs Paris Saint-Germain (6) 1-1
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 1-2, draw no bet

German Bundesliga:

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (8) 2-0
VfB Stuttgart vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score

German Bundesliga 2:

Arminia Bielefeld vs Energie Cottbus (7)
1860 Munich vs Osnabruck (6)
Karlsruher SC vs Alemannia Aachen (7)

Greek Super League:

Ergotelis vs Asteras Tripolis (7) 1-0
PAOK Salonika vs Panserraikos (8) under 2.5 goals
Kavala vs Aris Salonika (6) 1-1
Kerkyra vs AEK Athens (6) 1-2

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Debreceni VSC vs Fehervar (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Icelandic Urvalsdeild:

Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Fram Reykjavik (6) over 2.5 goals
Fylkir Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (6) 1-1
UMF Grindavik vs Breidablik Kopavogur (5) 1-1

Italian Serie A:

Bari vs Juventus (5) 1-2
Chievo Verona vs Catania (6) 1-1
AC Milan vs Lecce (5) 1-1
Parma vs Brescia (6) 1-0
Sampdoria vs Lazio (7) 2-1
Palermo vs Cagliari (6) over 2.5 goals
Fiorentina vs SSC Napoli (6) 1-1

Japanese J-League:

Yokohama F.Marinos vs Albirex Niigata (6) 1-1
Gamba Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata (6) 1-0
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kawasaki Frontale (6) over 2.5 goals

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Atletas vs Tauras Taurage (7) under 2.5 goals
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Siauliai (6) 1-1
Maziekiai vs Suduva Marijampole (8) 0-2
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Ekranas Panevezys (7) 1-2

Mexican Primera Division:

Toluca vs Queretaro (7) under 2.5 goals
Puebla vs Pachuca (5) 1-1
America vs Necaxa (8) 2-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

De Graafschap vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (9) over 3.5 goals
Twente Enschede vs Utrecht (7) under 2.5 goals
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Vitesse Arnhem (4) 2-1
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven (8) 0-2
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Rotterdam (6) 1-0

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Volendam vs Telstar (6)

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset (5) 1-1
Stabaek vs Lillestrom (7) over 2.5 goals
Molde FK vs Valerenga Oslo (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Odd Grenland Skien vs Kongsvinger (8) 2-0
Aalesund vs Honefoss (6) 1-0
Start Kristiansand vs Rosenborg BK (6) 1-2

Norwegian Divisjon 1:

Sogndal vs Moss (6) both sides to score
Ranheim vs Tromsdalen (8)
Fredrikstad vs Follo (7)
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Nybergsund (6)
Sandnes Ulf vs Mjondalen (4)
Bryne vs Strommen (5)
Alta vs Bodo Glimt (6)

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

Sport Colombia vs Nacional Asuncion (6) 0-1
Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Trinidense (5) 2-1
Rubio Nu vs Cerro Porteno (6) 1-1

Peruvian Primera Division:

Sport Boys vs Universitario Lima (6) 1-1
Universidad San Martin vs Melgar FBC (8) 2-0
Cienciano vs Sporting Cristal (5) 1-1
Alianza Atletico vs Universidad Cesar Vallejo (6) 0-1, draw no bet
Leon de Huanuco vs Sport Huancayo (6) over 2.5 goals
Inti Gas vs Jose Galvez (6) 2-1
Juan Aurich vs CNI (8) 2-1
Alianza Lima vs Total Chalaco (8) 2-0

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan (6) 1-1
Gornik Zabrze vs Ruch Chorzow (5) 1-0, draw no bet

Polish Liga 1:

Nieciecza vs Gorzow Wielkopolski (5) draw no bet
Kolejarz Stroze vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz (5)
LKS Lodz vs Gornik Leczna (7)
Pogon Szczecin vs Dolcan Zabki (8)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Pacos de Ferreira vs Portimonense (6) 2-1
Beira-Mar vs Academica de Coimbra (6) 1-1
Sporting Braga vs Maritimo Funchal (8) 2-1
Olhanense vs Uniao de Leiria (5) 1-0
Rio Ave vs Porto (8) 0-2

Romanian Liga:

Otelul Galati vs Brasov (7) 1-0
Steaua Bucharest vs Poli Timisoara (5) 1-1
Unirea Urziceni vs Vaslui (6) 1-1

Russian Premier League:

Tom Tomsk vs Dinamo Moscow (5) 1-1
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Zenit St.Petersburg (5) 0-1
CSKA Moscow vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (9) -1.5 handicap

Scottish Premier League:

Motherwell vs Celtic (5) 0-1
St.Mirren vs Hibernian (6) 1-2
Hearts vs Dundee United (5) 2-1

Serbian Super Liga:

OFK Belgrade vs Partizan Belgrade (7) 1-2
Hajduk Kula vs Indjija (6) 1-0
Red Star Belgrade vs Jagodina (7) 2-1

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

Senica vs Slovan Bratislava (6) over 2.5 goals

Slovenian Prva Liga:

Primorje vs Olimpija Ljubljana (5) 1-1
Triglav vs Rudar Velenje (5) 0-1
Koper vs Maribor (6) 1-2, draw no bet

Spanish Primera Liga:

Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Zaragoza (5) 2-1
Espanyol vs Getafe (7) 2-0
Real Sociedad vs Villarreal (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Osasuna vs Almeria (6) 2-0
Racing Santander vs Barcelona (7) over 2.5 goals
Real Mallorca vs Real Madrid (6) 1-2

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Numancia (6)
Real Betis Balompie vs Granada (7)
Salamanca vs Cordoba (6)
Albacete vs Alcorcon (4) draw no bet

Swedish Allsvenskan:

Mjallby Solvesborg vs Trelleborg (6) 1-1
AIK Solna vs IFK Goteborg (5) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Gefle vs BK Hacken Goteborg (5) 0-0
Malmo vs Elfsborg Boras (7) over 2.5 goals
Halmstad vs Kalmar (6) 1-2

Swedish Superettan:

Angelholm vs Orgryte (7)
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Degerfors (7) over 2.5 goals
Falkenberg vs Osters (6)

Swiss Super League:

Bellinzona vs Grasshoppers Zurich (4) 1-1
Luzern vs Thun (6) over 2.5 goals
Sion vs Young Boys Bern (5) 2-2

Swiss Challenge League:

Kriens vs Stade Nyonnais (6) under 2.5 goals
Lausanne Sports vs Biel-Bienne (8)

Turkish Super Lig:

Fenerbahce vs Manisaspor (6) 2-1
Karabukspor vs Besiktas JK (7) 0-1
Eskisehirspor vs Galatasaray (6) 1-1

Ukrainian Premier League:

Zorya Lugansk vs Tavriya Simferopol (6) 1-1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Illichivets Mariupol (9) -1.5 handicap
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Metalist Kharkiv (6) over 2.5 goals
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Dynamo Kiev (8) 0-2

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Rampla Juniors vs River Plate Montevideo (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 1-1
Tacuarembo vs El Tanque Sisley (5) 2-1
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Fenix (8) 2-0

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Yaracuyanos vs Caracas (5) 0-1
Aragua vs Zulia (6) 1-1
Deportivo Tachira vs Carabobo (8) 2-1
Estudiantes de Merida vs Atletico Venezuela (6) 1-0
Caroni vs Monagas SC (5) 0-0
Trujillanos vs Mineros de Guayana (6) 1-1
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Zamora (7) 2-1
Deportivo Petare vs Deportivo Lara (8) over 2.5 goals
Real Esppor Club vs Atletico El Vigia (6) 2-1

Welsh Premier League:

The New Saints vs Bala Town (8) over 2.5 goals

Enjoy your free betting tips!

100 thoughts on “Ceske Budejovice vs Viktoria Plzen

  1. Hi Ian. nice post. can you please write the 5 matches that you trust mostly on “both sides to score”? :)

    • You read all of it in 17 minutes? That’s impressive :)

      I suggest you read the list and use the confidence ratings provided :)

    • well, i wrote it because i was about to sleep (was waiting for you to post lol) but if you say so, i’ll take the list thanks and good luck :)

  2. SCOTTISH PREMIER PREVIEW….

    Hearts v Dundee Utd – Team news….

    Hearts could be without nine players for Sunday’s visit of Dundee United with Ruben Palazuelos suspended and Andy Driver and Gary Glen injured.
    Calum Elliot, Marius Zaliukas, Lee Wallace, Darren Barr, Stephen Elliott and David Obua are all injury doubts.

    Dundee United are expected to recall strikers Jon Daly and David Goodwillie after both were dropped to the bench for Thursday’s match with AEK Athens.

    Hearts should win this one against a tired Dundee Utd team who were defeated in Greece midweek in the Europa Cup.

    Motherwell v Celtic Team news….

    Motherwell midfielder Steve Jennings returns from suspension after missing the Europa League defeat by Odense.
    Striker Esteban Casagolda is also back in contention after being ineligible for the midweek loss to the Danes.

    Goalkeeper Fraser Forster could make his Celtic debut after joining on loan from Newcastle this week.
    Fellow new signing Emilio Izaguirre has declared himself fit but Gary Hooper, Charlie Mulgrew, Mark Wilson, Thomas Rogne and Andreas Hinkel are out.

    Celtic are scoring goals for fun, but Craig Browns men will make it hard for them. I do expect Neil Lennons men to win a tight match though.

    St Mirren v Hibernian Team news….

    St Mirren striker Gareth Wardlaw returns from a groin injury while Paul McQuade and Steven Thomson are also approaching full fitness.
    But David Barron remains on the sidelines due to injury.

    Hibernian manager John Hughes plans to include Anthony Stokes in his first-team plans, with the striker the subject of interest from Celtic.
    Midfielder Kevin McBride is suspended while goalkeeper Graham Stack and defender Michael Hart are out injured.

    Three points are vital at home, but Hibs will want to get back to winning ways. I go for a tight away win.

  3. How’s this for a fun bet this morning? :)

    Independiente Medellin v Real Cartagena – Independiente Medellin @ 21/10 (when 1-0 down)
    San Luis v Atlante – San Luis @ 21/20 (when drawing 0-0)
    Los Angeles Galaxy v Kansas City – Los Angeles Galaxy @ 4/9
    Seattle Sounders v Chicago Fire – Seattle Sounders @ Evens
    Gold Coast United v Melbourne Victory – Draw @ 23/10
    Melbourne Heart v Perth Glory – Draw @ 23/10
    Qingdao Jonoon v Beijing Guoan – Beijing Guoan @ 10/11

    Odds: Around 350/1

    Stake: £0.15
    Potential Return: £55.00-ish

    You just never know, eh? ;)

  4. I fancy Bolton today as Johan Elmander is finally looking like a striker again and the home side has won on five occasions in the last six matches when these teams have met.
    Liverpool may have Torres back, but even with Joe Cole and possibly Gerrard out i’d still expect Liverpool to win. West Brom havent won at Anfield in 23 outings.
    Man City were impressive beating Liverpool 3-0 last week so although their away record aint that great im still going to take them for an away win.
    Celtic are banging goals in for fun and the new signings are playing well, they’ll have too much for Motherwell.
    Next is Real Madrid, Mourinho has included six new signings against Michael Laudrups Mallorca.- Ricardo Carvalho, Sami Khedira, Sergio Canales, Mesut Ozil, Pedro Leon and Angel Di Maria. Who would go against a Mourinho win?

    Bolton
    Liverpool
    Man City
    Celtic
    Real Madrid Accumulator 17/2

    And im plumping for Over 2.5 goals in
    Aston Villa v Everton
    Santander v Barcelona
    De Graafschap v Ajax Treble 14/5

    Best of luck everyone, hopefully we all have a profitable Sunday, and Ian BIG THANKS for your fantastic previews, made a tidy profit yesterday due to quite a few of your tips. :)

  5. mascherano went cheap because he was desperate to get out of there

    barcelona never have to pay much for players anymore, their reputation reels them in

  6. Anyone considering Skive. They are priced at evens at NordicBet and 3.75 on the -1.5 handicap.

    • I quiet fancy MFF today vs IFE in the Swedish Allsvenska. I´ll come back later for a preview of some sort but MFF at evens could be some value today.

  7. loads of scandinavian possibilities today cant quite make up my mind between nonka II p-irot sollentuna UTD & sandvikens but i dont care how poor they have been and goalshy but rops @ 9/20 are going on all slips today !!

  8. I got away with murder yesterday. I was being hammered (Not listening to Ian) I put a large amount on under 2.5 goals vascos v cruz game 2 goals on 45 mins looked like i was ready for the hangmans noose but no goals in sencond half saved me i actually made a profit.
    Today so much choice today might do a odds on treble and accumulator. Back later. Liverpool/ajax/milan interest me 2day.

  9. I agree with your predicton about Molde-Vålerenga in Norwegian Tippeliga today. Molde hasn’t won a match since May 16th, and will be missing Hestad and Hoseth in tonights game. Vålerenga has sold their top scorer Moa to Hannover, but are fighting in the top of the table and I can’t see how they can lose against Molde.

    • I was going to make it one of my tips today but I need to see how they fare without Abdellaoue and they’ve also been quite poor on the road of late. Molde are no mugs and will make them fight for it but momentum should see an away win here. Hoseth is a hefty loss for the hosts so I fancy Valerenga quite a bit here although a draw is certainly possible too.

      Good luck mate.

  10. Hi everyone. I see much value on the teams I’ll put below:
    Lausanne, Rapid viena, villareal, bate borisov, braga, juventus, fc copenhagen, zenit, anorthosis, partizan belgrad.

    I don’t know if the bookies are nuts but to offer a team like villareal(on it’s current form) at 2.3!, this is pure gift. Now, it may be possible that the bookies know something I don’t so i’ll proceed with cautious on those bets. The odds on the above teams are too good to be ignored. Yesterday I ignored toulouse and sevilla. Today, i’ll take my chances. If you got news about injuries or missings, plz share it. My only serious doubt is on partizan belgrad. I may replace this team by gent.

    Good luck

    • Villarreal aren’t great away from home, Sociedad is a tough away game because of their physical nature, Villarreal have only just come back from Belarus, and they’ve also lost Llorente so be careful there :)

      Good luck mate

  11. MALMÖ FF (MFF) – ELFSBORGS IF (EIF)

    Sweden, Allsvenskan.

    In general the matches between these two teams are tight affairs with the exception of last season when MFF beat EIF at home 5-0. The last ten (when MFF have played at home) between the sides read : 5-5-2 in MFF´s favour.

    EIF will have to do without Stefan Ishizaki (one of their best players) today while MFF have Jimmy Durmaz and Guillermo Molins suspended which will be a blow to them. Jiloan Hamad will be available again though and likely to start on the right midfield.

    MFF have five straight wins (and five clean sheets) in the league and are still to lose at home. Great form. EIF might be a little tired having played 7 games in August already, this being the eigth. They were knocked out by Napoli 3-0 on aggregate in midweek. I like EIF when at home. Pretty strong. They´re much worse away though with only 2 wins in 10 games (I think).

    MFF obviously have to watch out for Denni Avdic who´s the leading goalscorer so far this season Allsvenskan but having had a look at the form of the home team the improvement of play as well as the fact that HIF lost their game yesterday being some kind of motivation to them and considering EIFs away form this is a home win for me.

    Always want to go more into depth in ´previews´ but my time is really limited at the moment.

    Main bet: MFF to win at evens.
    Possible side bet (long shot!): 2-0 or MFF to win to nil.

    Good luck!

  12. just got on ajax over 3.5 goals @ 19/20, not sure for rest of day- spanish and italian league openers- usually some upsets!

    • milan/palermo/ win and samp/lazio both to score looks like a good treble in Italy not bet on it yet but see how my lunchtime bet goes.

  13. Very much like the look of zenith 2day evens.
    My acc zenith/psv/liverpool/bayer/ 7/2 50pound straight.

  14. De Graafschap to score @ 2.5 looks a decent price in play, it’s been an even game so far, just Suarez magic separates the two sides.

    • placed a single on leverkusen (500 at 1.35)
      also got some money on jordan to beat angola in the basketball (330 at 1.40)

      • Weird, that one. I don’t think Moenchengladbach will score that many away goals for the rest of the season!!

    • Indeed very strange. You like Hammarby tomorrow Ian? Fancy Hallenius to continue his good goalscoring form and quiete a few goals.

      • I do but I’m concerned at how unbeatable Jonkopings are atm, to be honest. I see plenty of goals but I think I’ll give it a miss

  15. Gone for Skive, Anorthosis, Sturm treble. Let’s see how it works out, there’s many games more I like today! Great previews Ian!

    • Cheers mate!

      Btw, any idea what possessed Levadia to let it slip yesterday? They cost me (and no doubt others too!) a lot of money! I know Narva are good but still.

    • Same here! I was convinced Levadia would win the match until I saw the final scoreline.. And there goes my $50 T_T

    • They just couldn’t take their chances to finish the game off early. You can see some misses from these highlights – http://sport.err.ee/index.php?0&popup=video&id=10344 , there are no goals but some silly missed chances! Also the coach made a stupid substitute when he took off Neemelo after he scored and added another young defender, which gave the game away!

    • Yea, they missed another striker also Torop, who is on a trial with Werder. Prosa was back though, I thought he will miss the game also like you pointed out!

  16. Hi from Turkey ! Ian thx for the great write ups and great picks.It seems I used to be a winner with your picks.I used to be on very very famous teams b4 but know since I have known ur blog (3days) I used to bet on small teams and its more more profitable.I add u to top of my fav tipsters list.Thank you and good luck again !

    • Cheers mate! Good to have some Turkish input on here! Feel free to add any Turkish previews if you want :)

  17. Thanks for tip on espanyol Ian although game not finished yet 2up esp.
    Done double with over 2 stuttgart game. Got the 50 i lost lunchtime plus a bit of interest. Looking for a bet 2nite nice double both teams or over 2 goals.
    sampv lazio and bordeaux v marsellie takes my fancy

  18. I’ve currently got two bets going at the minute:

    1. Espanyol & Real Betis @ 2.5/1 – £3
    2. Shakhtar Donetsk & Sturm Graz @ 1/1 – £5
    3. Sturm Graz @ 4/6 – £6

    I accidently placed a single on Sturm Graz as well when I was doing the double. I can only hope that it comes off now but having read Ian’s previews, I’m fairly confident that it will anyway. I like all three of these bets and if they come off then I’ll definitely make a profit for the day after a few losses earlier. What do you think, Ian? Pretty sensible bets?

    • As long as Espanyol hang on and Betis cope without the loss of Garcia, although Grenada are bad enough to lose that one anyway. Should be sound mate!

    • Yeah, I agree. Espanyol look as though they’ll hold on at the minute and if they do then that’s full credit to you, mate. I thought your tip for Espanyol was a very good one, hence why I took it and it might just pay off! From what I remember of last season, Espanyol used to play pretty well at home and pretty poorly away. I went for Real Betis because they should’ve easily been promoted last season because they’re a very good side, especially when playing at home so I think there’s enough about them to see off Grenada.

    • I’m glad managed to turn it around a win in the end! Now I’m just waiting on Real Betis and if that comes through then I’m up £11 today and that’ll take my balance up to £41. Come on Betis! :)

      • Nah, just messing mate. To be honest, if you look at you overall percentage of profit, grands might not be as far away as you think. You’re not a stupid gambler unlike some people i.e. you won’t just back a name so why shouldn’t you excel?

    • Because anything can happen in football? I just think I got really, really lucky today and on another day, I’d have been £11 down and not £11 up. I’m currently on £41 and this is from the £10 that I started with a couple of weeks ago so I guess it’s not that bad. I lost a lot before that though (about £40) so I’ve nearly made up for that.

      It would be nice to get a bankroll together though and I might just do that from the start of next month. I want to stick to a sum of money and then see how much I can build it up to. I might start with a set amount (maybe something like £50) at the start of every month and then see whether I’ve made a profit or loss at the end of each month and by how much. So I’ll repeat the process month after month to see if I do better. If I can analyse my performance and success rate then hopefully I’ll be able to identify ways where I can keep improving. It’s probably worth a shot because I don’t like randomly putting my on my account and not knowing whether I’m up or down.

      I think that I’ll start this idea as of September 1st and I’ll class that as the start of my betting season. Then looking back at this time next year, hopefully I’ll have made a bundle. Anywhere close to a grand would be really good. I’ll live in hope. :) But thanks for the encouragement, mate. And don’t worry, I know you were just messing. ;)

  19. Bordeaux defence not as good as last year and even game. Recent record both teams to score would win last 3 meetings.

  20. Real sorry about the under in the Villa Everton game, with the amount of chances it shoulda been over!!! You win some you lose some….. Now, Barca….. gunna sit and watch and hopefully be entertained!!! :)

    • Nah no problem. Funny is that I don´t know how many times I´ve betted on this fixture (and reverse) for the past seasons to end with two goals or less and now when I bet on overs it ends unders :)

      It was or could have been a good call anyway so, nothing wrong with it!

  21. what the hell is going on with the results today?
    any value on STRUM staging a fightback? 3.3?

    • I’d leave it. They’re not a goalscoring side by nature. They had to start well and they’ve not so I’d leave it, barring 1X if the odds are good enough.

  22. Ok going for milan/real madrid/ and both teams to score bordeaux and samdoria game pays around 9/2 acc. Thinking of a large bet just milan/real double 4/5 i do really fancy it.
    Milan got the news that they have signed zlatan ibra might spark the crowd and forwards into a good performance and real obviously the special one and what you said about mallorca selling all there best players.

    • Loosing against MP which all other teams wins is sick. I call for someone to go to Finland to check out what is going on in the RoPs camp :-)

    • The goal Rops scored was an own goal so they really did not score themself :-) making it then 5th game in a row that a player from the RoPs team does not score. There is something big wrong with RoPs attack these days.

  23. STURM! I i didnt take them when they were 0-1 down, but when it was 1-2 i backed them at better odds! Your handicap predictions have been great for a while now! although i just took the win at 1-2 obviously.

    • Strange game and an unorthodox method of success but a win is a win, I guess!

      Nicely done mate :)

  24. Thanks. Ive just gone against you on the AC milan game though, and ive gone for them to win by 2+@1.95.
    hopefully if this comes in ill break even for this weekend.
    I really see a strong start by them, scoring before 30th min BUT i am a bit worried they wont push on and could be 1-0.

    • Genk look on fire, happily. I like Sampdoria even more now the players that were previously listed as being injured are now playing!

      Parma isn’t my pick, however. I do think they’ll win but I’ve not recommended it because they have a new manager and have changed a little over the window.

      Good luck mate

  25. I did my own analysis today and I feel abit worried when I see that you picked the opposite of Boca and Argentinos. At the other side one need to go by the own pick and belive in the pick.

    I was hoping for Zlatan to stay in Barcelona but things didnt work out so he ends up in Milan instead. Opposite of pure magic from Barcelonas point of view losing alots of millions on Zlatan.

    • Argentina is a funny place sometimes so it’s understandable. You’re very brave backing Argentinos after all their losses over the summer and Boca with their dodgy defence though!

      Barcelona aren’t short on money. I think they’ve made enough profit over the years to allow for a minor blip with Ibrahimovic ;) I agree though – good player that wasn’t played in the right formation.

    • I just saw good value in both of those bets. Not so much to go on in the beginning of the season looking at form statistic. I add like an “unknown factor” when looking at value were I balance head to head , last 5 home for home team and last 5 away for away team if recent and then I compare.

      The unkown factor is like looking at past season if its beginning of the season and get the statistic for how often a match end with home win draw and away win.

      Then I “bake” it together and get a percentage for homewin drawn and away win.

      Then I compare my “odds” with the markets odds. If its over 25 % I can think of maybe bet on it.

      I had 26 % value on both those Argentinian games so I though , why not give it a try.

      I dont bet big money so its not that brave bets.

      Things can happend in a match, a red card , a penalty like in Tom Tomsk game that I was lucky to pick today. That game would have ended up a draw but it didnt. penalty and a 1-0 win.

      I have alot of fun while betting and analysing. Ofcourse its a bonus if I do well but its not a must. I just try to improve and test new ideas.

      Barcelona will never be short on money, I can think that Zlatan may do one year in Milan and then end up in Real Madrid with Mourinho, feels realistic. Much can happend in 1 year. I dont think he will stay that long in Milan.

      • Betting has to be fun or it loses the point entirely so I’m with you there mate! :)

        Fair play – good luck!

        Zlatan can’t stay at AC Milan – they just can’t afford him. Fuck that deal they’ve got in place – I don’t think it’s for real at all. You know what I think happened? I think Berlusconi has offered Barcelona first option on Pato in exchange over the coming years. Just a theory but it makes sense.

    • Milan have loaned zlatan for 1 year with a option to buy after a year.
      I hope real madrid score 2nd half to make it a good weekend.

      • Yeah, I know, but my point didn’t refute that – I simply said that I think there’s more to it than that as I personally don’t believe that AC can afford him.

    • Any other players that have played for all these three big clubs in Italy except Zlatan?

    • Im a Swede and I have seen Zlatans whole carrier from his days in Malmö FF.

      He have a tuff attitude but he is a fullblood pro also. Barcelona have been my favorite team I have been very happy seing Swedish players in Barcelona but I also remember a time in the 80s when my team IFK Göteborg beat Barcelona at home in european cup semi final in 1986.

      IFK Göteborg lost on penalty shootout on camp nou. Fantastic memorys and I have been at nou camp and I feel very proud that my team shoke Barcelona and almost kicked them out of the tournament considering what small club IFK Göteborg was back them compared with Barcelona.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iou7vHUFc7s

      I have been happy that players like Henrik Larsson been playing in Barcelona because I think most players that have been something extra as a player played at sometime in Barcelona.

      However, Im sad that Zlatan had to leave even on loan due to some chemistry not working with Guardiola. For me I lose some interest in Barcelona as a club and I may not cheer as entusiastic as I once did for the club.

      Zlatan is unique, looking at his athlet bacground he began training taekwondo and got black belt an an quite early age. I try to figure when I see him playing if that help him hold balance in a way that makes him that difficult player to play against. Im pleased to see him back in the swedish national team were he is Captain now. But Im sad that he isnt in Barcelona. If Milan end up playing Barcelona this season I really hope Milan can do a real screw job on Barcelona. That would be sweet.

  26. Depends how the do this year. League champions league. He knows Italy well and has a very good record there.
    Its a fact that in his professional career he has always won a league title in all his years of a professional.

    • Yeah, but Barca, Inter, and Ajax weren’t sinking ships like AC are. How can AC win this Serie A? They have two match winners – the rest are too old or too frequently injured. They’ve done nothing to prepare for their ageing squad and their biggest signings this season (barring Ibrahimovic) are Kevin Prince-Boateng on loan from Genoa and Papasthodopolous from Genoa. It’s not setting the pulses racing, really. They’re simply not a good side anymore, as much as it pains me to say it. I like AC and wish them the best but Berlusconi is successfully destroying them year by year.

    • Yup 6 or 7 years on the trot I think now he´s won the league. Of course Juve lost one or two titles due to that scandal.

  27. Good tips today Ian, Ajax over 3.5 goals, Independiente and Arsenal both to score, Sampdoria amongst others! Hopefully Real Madrid can come through :)

    • Cheers mate :)

      That’s why I didn’t recommend them. The manager and the players are total opposites so anything could happen here. They’re not a good side yet so I won’t backing them for a while yet.

    • Despite today being pretty good overall, I have my regrets too – I removed the laying of Madrid, laying Bryne, and laying Hajduk today and two already won with the other looking promising!

    • Now I am regreding not to place win on IBV and Breidablik in the Icelandic league, I did not want them to win because I support KR and therefore did not go for them but they both won. IBV managed to win man 1 – 2 man down fron 30 th min. This Fylkir team is so bad.

      Bloody Real Madrid cost me my late accy. Why on earth did they not score.

  28. I’ve just taken Velez in-play against Boca @15/8 for some reason, even though i don’t overly rate Velez, someone convince me otherwise?

  29. real had about 4 chances in the last 5 mins, i had a late bet on the 60th min. :(

    AC got my money back tho so i cant complain, they really did start well! some good results in Italy

  30. lost alot on under 2.5 Guarani – Flamengo, it was 0:1 till 89 minute.. then flamengo lost 2:1 dont know how and dont want to know how -,-

  31. Wasnt the best of Weekends for me. Was in loss of £264 yesterday but managed to win the £264 back today to end the Weekend breaking even which is better than a Loss so am happy.

    Palermo messed up my other 4 Folds slip. Would have won £354 if they would have won so was nearly in Profit! Doh!

    Bring on the Midweek games :)

    • Unlucky mate. I didn’t like Palermo at all today – no Cavani and no Kjaer removes some massive parts of their team so I’m going to observe them for a while before backing them.

    • ye m8 I jst thought with Cagliari’s Awful away form and Palermo fantastic Home form from last season they would just edge the game. It was my side bet anyway. My main slip was this one… which for me to break even for the Weekend.

      T.N.S. v Bala Town 1/4 Sun 14:30
      CSKA Moscow v Alania V 2/9 Sun 15:30
      PAOK Salonika v Panserr 3/10 Sun 16:15
      Shakhtar Donetsk v Illi 1/12 Sun 17:00
      Genk v Lierse 2/7 Sun 19:30

      this was my side bet for fun… all won apart from Palermo..

      Braga v Maritimo 8/15 Sun 18:00
      Debrecen v Videoton FC 1/1 Sun 18:00
      Palermo v Cagliari 8/11 Sun 19:45
      Corinthians v Vitoria 8/15 Sun 20:00
      4 Folds
      7.12/1
      £50 = £356.09

      Gonna have a look now to see whats on Midweek.

      Hope u n the others made some £££ this Weekend m8!

    • Jesus ye!

      I was really lucky that they scored in the 90th minutes with 10 men lol

      I was half thinkin do I want em to drop points because am from Bangor and would be really good result for my hometown especially after beating Llanelli 2-0 yesterday but then again I was thinkin I would prefer to win my £264 back lol

  32. Okay, i’m bored during the half times! Whats the most you guys gave ever won off one bet?

  33. Hi Ian, do you know if Carpintero starts for Cucuta tonight, thinking of a putting a decent bet on them if he is. Cheers mate