Today’s featured game is the Copa Sudamericana game in Bolivia between Oriente Petrolero and Universidad de Chile. With thetie finely poised following a surprise 2-2 draw in Chile, we look set to have a good and very much “samba” game between these two sides tonight!
This is Oriente Petrolero’s first ever experience on the continent and they’ve handled themselves well thus far, claiming an extremely impressive 2-2 draw in the first leg of this tie. Universidad are a very strong side, especially at home, so it surprised me an awful lot when a frankly inferior side managed to take something from a trip there. That in itself is a warning that Oriente Petrolero are very serious about this competition so I’ll give them the respect that they’ve earned for tonight’s games. Domestically, Oriente Petrolero have only lost twice in twenty consecutive home games and those games were against bitter rivals Blooming Santa Cruz and Aurora Cochabamba, two of the more successful Bolivian sides nowadays so it’s far from a bad record. Indeed, Oriente Petrolero have won fifteen of those games and haven’t actually lost at home to anyone but Blooming and Aurora since February 2009, which I think is pretty damn impressive. This side were once nobodies; they clearly have no intention of letting that remain the case for much longer. They’re not shy with their cash either, signing the likes of Uruguayan striker Jorge Ramirez from Atenas, Argentinian defender Alejandro Schiapparelli from Bolivar La Paz, and Paraguayan midfielder Francisco Benitez from Real Mamore in a bid to boost their squad and its worked wonders with Oriente Petrolero rapidly ascending through Bolivian ranks to being one of the better sides in the country. Promising striker Alcides Pena has linked up well with Uruguayan striker Jorge Ramirez with both players scoring goals for fun this season and it’ll be interesting to see how they fare at home to an experienced continental opponent tonight if Pena is ruled fit enough to play. Midfielder Joselito Vaca will be key for Oriente Petrolero as he’s one of the few players they have to have played outside South America and thus has key experience for the side. The other key player in that aspect is Saucedo, who isn’t long back from a spell with Chernomorets Odessa. He openly confessed to being happy there but the Ukrainian side opted not to sign him so he returned to Oriente Petrolero. Argentinian manager Gustavo Quintero made a brave move to rest players at Real Mamore last match by sending a second string but he was left without option after Real Mamore refused Oriente Petrolero’s proposal to move the game. As a result, he does have a full-strength side to select from tonight and I fancy them as a result with such a good set of players at their disposal, not to mention with the game being played at approximately 1,500 metres above sea level.
I’m a big advocate of the tenacious Universidad de Chile but it almost looks like their Copa Libertadores Semi-Final defeat against Mexican outfit Guadalajara has impacted them mentally because they looked rather abject in the first leg of this tie. Domestically, they’re back to basics, but on the continent they appear a little more hesitant than they were previously. Universidad are a side that I always associate tenacity and belief with and yet the side lacked both in their usual doses in the first leg so I’m not sure how they’re planning to progress tonight. Royas and midfield general Iturra were rested in their last game at home to Santiago Wanderers but an alarming number of Universidad’s first string played in that game, which confirms my opinion that Universidad are being a little cocky and may become complacent as a result. Their manager Gerardo Pelusso has already stated his confidence at qualifying for the next round despite playing a difficult game at high altitude as the club have never lost outside Chile. Either he’s stupid or he meant this year because Universidad certainly have lost outside of Chile; just not since 2009. They’re a very experienced side, Universidad, and it takes a lot for me to against them in any continental competition as a result. They really are a very good side and they travel a lot better than most continental sides. However, with most of their first team in action just a few days ago and now facing a trip to a high altitude venue, I can’t see them doing as well here as their manager seems to think they will. Universidad have won in Bolivia before but Oriente Petrolero is something of an “unknown” away game as they’ve never played in this competition before and in my experience, that’s never a good thing to take lightly. The hosts obviously have some money behind them and they’re creating a very strong squad, not to mention they seem more determined than Universidad tonight to qualify for the latter stages of the competition so I do fear for the Chilean side tonight.
This game should be a lot closer than most games between Bolivian sides and their respective opponents in continental competition because the altitude favours the hosts and Oriente Petrolero actually bring some quality into this game, unlike their Bolivian counterparts. Universidad are a very strong side but this is a tough game for them, particularly as they have to attack and this is no height to be excessively running around or tiredness and even sickness can kick in after a while. As weak as Bolivian sides are in general when compared to the remainder of South America, they have a strong home advantage in general that often serves them well so they’re not to be underestimated here. Ultimately, I just don’t see Oriente Petrolero losing this game tonight. I can accept a draw but for a side to win in Bolivia, they have to play very well indeed and I just don’t think Universidad have prepared well enough to do so, especially when you consider the measures that the hosts have taken to prepare for this game. Therefore, my recommendation is to take the home win with draw no bet tonight with the hope that the arising Bolivian side fulfills their potential and plays a good tactical game to incorporate their altitude advantage into their strategy.
Either way, let’s hope this game ends much better for the hosts than their last game did a few days ago at Real Mamore. They lost the game 3-2 with a second-string, as you’d expect, but the referee was bombarded with water bottles at the end of the game by the home fans because they were unhappy with his display and he was escorted off the premises with police protection. That kind of activity in this game would no doubt see Oriente Petrolero expelled from the competition so let’s pray they have more sense than their Bolivian counterparts did last match!
Verdict: Oriente Petrolero to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
The only other game I like today is:
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Penarol – home win at evens.
Barcelona Guayaquil enter this game on the back of a very impressive 1-0 win at El Nacional Quito so will understandably bring some momentum into this game. They have the advantage over Penarol of being mid-season domestically and having already played two games in this competition against Peru’s Universidad Cesar Vallejo, impressively winning both in Peru and in Ecuador with apparent ease. They miss De Jesus in defence for this game following his intelligent dismissal at the end of their home encounter with Universidad Cesar Vallejo and that is a blow for them. However, the goals of Paraguayan striker Samudio should give their opponents more to think about in their own defence rather than making holes in the Barcelona defence. Manager Llop has named the following squad for the home game with Penarol:
Banguera, Viteri, Cevallos, Perlaza, Hurtado, Nazareno, Hidalgo, Oyola, Noir, Rodriguez, Bolanos, Prette, Samudio, Palacios, Garces, Leon, Montenegro, Anagono, Valdivieso.
As I touched upon earlier – Barcelona are only missing De Jesus and boast a full squad aside from that so are well-placed to make their presence felt tonight. Liga de Quito have ensured that Ecuador has become a terrifying place to visit over the past few years and Deportivo Quito have done their best to enhance that reputation, not to mention Barcelona’s bitter rivals Emelec Guayaquil. Barcelona now have their long overdue chance to make themselves heard and with match fitness and home advantage favouring them, not to mention high altitude, you have to favour the hosts tonight.
Much like hosts Barcelona, Penarol are a big side in their respective country. Also much like Barcelona, they’ve been ousted from continental competition for far too long and at least half the country of Uruguay is excited to see them back in action. However, they’re going to have some problems tonight, in my opinion. The first one is that they’ve not played a competitive game of football in approximately three months. To go to Ecuador of all places with that lack of match practice and to get a result is a tad ludicrous, in my humble opinion – a trip to Ecuador should never be taken lightly. Penarol have their two domestic games with Mirimar Misiones and Montevideo Wanderers postponed as they frolicked around with Real Madrid in a friendly and generally pissed around awaiting this fixture, which again is a bad move! I have an awful lot of respect for Penarol as a club with their proud history and relentless support. However, I don’t feel they’ve prepared anywhere near well enough for this game and it really could come back to bite them in the ass tonight. They’ve brought both of their strike duo Martinuccio and Ramis to Ecuador, although I doubt they’ll both start. They’ve brought former Internazionale midfielder/striker Antonio Pacheco to Ecuador, which is a massive boost for Penarol as he’s their best and arguably most experienced player. This whole Penarol squad has a lot of talent in both youth and experience but in a tough venue like the Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo at high altitude, I doubt we’ll get chance to see them shine, particularly with no competitive match practice to assist them.
Juan Pedro Damiani has named the below squad to take to Ecuador:
Sosa, Hernandez, Alcoba, G.Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Albin, Corujo, Sosa, Pacheco, Alonso, Palacios, Estoyanoff, Martinuccio, Domingo, Rios, Alvez, Collazo, Aguirregaray, D.Rodriguez, Ramis.
As you can see, Penarol take a very strong squad to Barcelona with the notable inclusion of new signing Fabian Estoyanoff, who some of you may recall from his time in Spain with Cadiz, Deportivo La Coruna, and Real Valladolid. Having failed to make it out there, he moved to Panionios in Greece and had a good season before returning back to Uruguay. He’s too good to be playing in Uruguay so he’ll be a valuable acquisition for their squad, I’m sure.
Bluntly; Penarol aren’t short of ability but they are short on match practice and they’re at a very tough venue against a tough side. With that in mind, I really don’t fancy them to do well tonight. I’ve composed a list of the most recent Uruguayan clubs to visit Ecuador in the past two years below so you can see how they generally fare:
2010 – Copa Libertadores - Deportivo Quito 2 Cerro 1
2010 – Copa Libertadores – Deportivo Cuenca 0 Club Nacional de Montevideo 0
2010 – Copa Libertadores – Emelec Guayaquil 1 Cerro 2
2009 – Copa Sudamericana – Liga de Quito 7 River Plate Montevideo 0
2008 – Copa Libertadoes - Deportivo Cuenca 0 Danubio 0
As you can see, Uruguayan clubs rarely win here and tend to be content with a draw. A draw is a possible outcome here and 1/2 on the home win with draw no bet is an acceptable price. However, given Penarol’s lack of match practice, I’m more inclined to go for the straight home win at evens because Barcelona have more than enough in their favour to win this game tonight, especially as they know they’ll struggle in Uruguay in the second leg.
Verdict: Barcelona Guayaquil to win at evens.
Aside from the above, nothing else interests me today because there are few games due to the approaching international fixtures. However, to see my thoughts on the remainder of today’s games, see below!
Copa Sudamericana:
Oriente Petrolero vs Universidad de Chile (5) 2-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Penarol (7) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Geylang United (7) 2-1
Woodlands Wellington vs Home United (7) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!
This Week really is gonna be a bad Week for betting! Even when the International games come round theres nothing to bet on!
This is my slip that runs till Friday night. Wont be putting any more bets on now till Saturday! Its a risky slip as one or two of them aint in the best of form but should still win there games.
Of all the games from now till Friday I think these are gonna b the most likely Home wins. None of them are Bankers though. For that reason am only going to stake £10!
Hoffenheim II v SG Sonnenhof Gross 11/20 TUES
Nurnberg II v Darmstadt 98 8/15 TUES
TSV 1860 Munchen II v Pfullendorf 1/1 TUES
Freiburg II v FSV Frankfurt II 1/2 TUES
Karlsruher SC II v Greuther Furth II 1/1 WED
Santos v Avai 8/13 FRI
22.03/1
£10 = £220.30
Good luck for rest of the Week guys!
I like Hoffenheim II at 1.55.
Yo Ian do you not cover Russia Div 1 anymore?
No mate – I just can’t find value there anymore
Strange next days when you can’t really bet on anything, maybe a good opportunity to step away from betting, take a break and come fresh when the leagues start again.
Singapoor is though always interesting league, lots of draws that can make you some money. This game Etoile vs Geylang United could easily end in a draw and also home victory.
I am thinking of doing a one accy.
Woodlands Wellington – Home United: Away win
Etoile FC – Geylang United : Draw no bet (Home win)
Oriente Petrolero – Universidad de Chile: Double change 1X
Barcelona – Peñarol : Away win
What concern me is that Barcelona – Peñarol could end in draw so dnb or double change should be an option here, I might do a double change 1X if I find another game to add to this accy to make it fivefold. Also something tels me that Etoile FC – Geylang United so I might do a single ticked with a draw.
Maybe it is also the best way to do a accy that is for the whole week because of the lack of games.
My last post of the evening. I found my accy for tomorrow.
It is a fund fivefold.
Woodlands Wellington – Home United : 2
Oriente Petrolero – Universidad de Chile Double chance: 1X
Jiskra Usti nad Orlici – Sigma Olomouc Number of goals: Over 2.5 goals
Barcelona – Peñarol Double chance: 1X
Rotherham – Lincoln City : 1
Odds: 4.98
im quite sure barcelona guay. are gonna win this so dont penarol x2, add in etoile maybe? like you suggested
Mistake, I think Barcelona is going to win and to be safe I do 1X.
Does anyone know where to get canadian csl streams?
I see that we have:
England – Johnstones Paint Trophy, a lot of english games :-)
Also Sigma Olomouc is playing a team in the 4th division in the czeck cup, Estonia cup has an interesting game between Kuressaare vs. Sillamäe Kalev. Finally the Northern Ireland premership is playing.
So we have a lots of doubius games :-)
lol ye I forgot about the Johnstones Paint Trophy games but I’ve put my £10 slip on n withdrawn the rest now! Still Cup games so be careful! I’ll settle for my 5 div Germany games lol Only decent bet I’ve seen on the Weeked is Mexico to beat Ecudor at 4/6 n Sheff Wed to win away at 11/5. I’m sure there’s plenty more tho. Jst not gna look this early on in the Week!
This is the time you can loose money because you go very far to pick some games to bet on just for the bet. So this is the time to be careful.
I can’t bet on the lithuania 1 Lyga but Kaunas should win Lifosa with more then 2 goals.
Worth noting that Oriente are based in Santa Cruz which is NOT at altitude. Ian, you need to do some research on that. Not all Bolivian teams are in the heights of the Andes. There’s no altitude advantage here.
Thanks for pointing that out in your rather brash phrasing buddy :)
My learned friend is correct – I fucked up and checked feet instead of metres so there’s no altitude in the Bolivian or ecuadorian game today – apologies guys! I’m usually spot on with this but I must have lost my mind temporarily!
Btw, I don’t mind being wrong but find me a guy who outs in more research than I do and publishes it for free and I will salute you :) It’s just a ballache that I looked at feet instead of metres!
one time i put my cat in altitude and it never came back :(
Didn’t mean to come across as abrasive, nor was I questioning in general the research you do. It was late at night when I posted, but I felt it was important to draw your attention to the fact that both these games will be at sea level, not altitude, in case that changed your opinion on their likely outcomes. In the case of Oriente, it does mine.
:) Thanks for bringing it to my attention – it’s very much appreciated as mistakes can happen sometimes.
Fair play mate, each to their own!
Ian , Russia Div I is something that we need today , give us some oppinions . Ty man!
quick preview on the s league
Woodlands v Home United
This is the only game that interests me, 1×2 wise, the bookies have priced etoile and home united right, although dont be discouraged by doubling them up because thats always a solid bet.
Both teams are at full strength. Eduardo Hicks returns in defence for the rams so they may be able to keep home out for the better part of the game. 2 months ago they bought quite a few defensive players in the transfer window and it has been showing so far. Home to win to nil is at evens, but either team not to score @ 1.90 is a more logical bet because woodlands could pull a 1-0, they have done it before against Home. Home United were super on form just before the break, im tentatively looking at the first round of games coming back to see which teams have maintained their form, or commited suicide.
On another note etoile @ 1.66 is a good bet as well, if you can inplay it till around 1.80 thats a really sweet bet.
Main Bet
Either team not to score @ 1.90
Hmm and under 2.5 @ 2.50 isn’t valuable option too?
Not much on 2day. Any sugestions for a over 2 goals game around evens as that seems the only bets i am winning recently or both teams to score.
Real madrid/Inter have screwed me last 2 days.
Yeovil to beat Exeter 2nite looks value at 6/5.
Exeter i like to beat against when they play away.
Yeovil had some bad results recently but last match got a good draw away to oldham. Any thoughts?
Volga Nizhny Novgorod vs. Kuban Krasnodar 1 @ 1,80 is my pick today (russian div 1)
Not super value but good enough to pick it.
Zolidus, people at some sites says it´s fixed. Home win. Odds dropping I think.
Ohh thats bad. How can one protect onself from fixed games ? I just look at the numbers statistic and see what I think its value. Those factors are hard to deal with that you mention.
The odds is down at 1,62 in medium. When I took a look at this game I estimated that the real odds should be around 1,65 considering factors as last five home and last five away , then som adjustment to part meetings and then a random factor for that division.
Considering what you just said that they say at home that this game is fixed. If its true or not it affect how people decide to choose in that game. If it becomes a spread rumor.
That in itself help to adjust the odds. Kuban have a good lead in the series and they have good form but that is also the case for Volga.
I look at the odds for Kuban that is up att 6,50 and that is very good if one belive that they can win this.
Find it strange that Kuban is valued at 6.50. must be something fishy then I reckon. It´s just a rumour I´ve read about so I´m not sure of course.
The match ended 0-0, it was probably a quite tight game. ohh well.
Oriente Petrolero played 3 days ago (29.08) with B squad (cause they were resting A squad for Copa Sudamericana) against Real Mamore as guests and almost made draw (FT 3-2), so here i expect at least over 2.5 if not Oriente to win.
purely speculation but lisburn distillery are 15/8 to beat coleraine or 4/7 double chance (i appreciate that distillery are lucky to be in this league but for a late flurry at the end of last season) coleraine have played 4 lost 4 – goals for 0 against 8 – got to be worth a shot i reckon – odds were coral incidentally
i hate days like this
Distillery aren’t a bad bet against a very poor form Coleraine. They were unlucky not to get something out of Linfield and drew with a strong Crusaders away.
Linfield and Crusaders look strong home wins tonight. I would avoid the Glentoran-Cliftonville game, as both teams are likely title contenders and will really go at each other. Could be nil all, a goalfest or a riot!
I think I will leave the Johnstones Paints trophy for what it is.. Looks like a proper minefield!
Put a combo on with
Etoile >> Geyland
Woodlands << Home UTD
@ about evens.. (2.08 european odds)
Maybe I will follow the Copa Liberatores tips :)
GL everybody with the bettingfree days upon us!
Going for this one today/tonight:
Hoffenheim II – SG Sonnenhof Gross :: HOME WIN @ 1.44 (dropped from 1.55)
Bournemouth – Torquay :: OVER 2,5 GOALS @ 1.90
DOUBLE @ 2.74.
Fairly confident about the English game. Could go over 3.5 as well. Hoffenheim should win too. Sonnenhof missing 4 players and hosts have won their first two home matches 5-0 and 5-0.
wen is hofenheim game?? and y do u tink over in bournemouth game????
Darren, Hoffenheim is at 1900 Berlin time.
About the Bournemouth game they have scored a couple of goals so far in the league (11 and conceded 5) while Torquay a division lower are to pof the league with 9-1 in 4 games each. So their matches have seen a couple of goals so far. Obviously it´s a cup game but I reckon it might be even more open because it is!
Not trying to convince you in taking the bet but I feel I need to start sharing my bets because a lot of people on here do (and I´ve profited from it). I know I´ve been pretty poor in posting my bets in the past but I will try and improve from now on (with motivation).
it doesnt affect the overs particularly but bournemouth i believe will be understrength tonight with injuries so a straight win isn’t a certainty – this competition is the dogshit of english football – and i’m not just saying that because scumhampton are the holders either – i would steer clear myself
it sounds like u no wat ur on about, i was tinkin over 2.5 in the bournemouth game and charlton win double. do u no of sites that predict these english cups? i wish ian wud,he has quality predictions!
mkw, what I see is two potent attacks tonight. Just read too that Bournemouth´s strikeforce might be weakened. It´s a cup game, never have any high stakes here.
Ah I´m crap!
Ian i can see u didnt go for english games i dont know y.bt i think
charlton and tranmere rover are “sure win” wat do u think?
I don’t cover the competitions mate, as can be seen on the FAQ section.
some one plz share some english tips!!
I like the look of a yeovil win against Exeter.
Exeter poor away. Yeovil improved last match and good at home.
But to be safe done Double hofenheim/Yeovil 1x evens.
cheers mate,wat does 1x mean. i cant find hoff game on boylesports?
“1X” is basically a Double Chance, meaning you’re backing a home win or the draw.
1 = Home Win.
X = Draw.
2 = Away Win.
oxford
charlton
tranmere rovers
darren gd luck
cheers man,any reason y the picks?
X1 means double result home win and draw.
Hoffenheim is germany 2nd division south.
ALERT.
Jiskra Usti nad Orlici – Sigma Olomouc: 1 – 2 after 12 min, could be come a goalfest for those who can bet live. My over 2.5 goals bet came through in 14 min.
Ian, sorry for putting it here, should be in the in-play chant, which I think no one is reading at the moment.
Very intersting developments :-)
7 goals scored in this game.
Could not play live in-play because Betson which I am currently with did not have the game live, they don’t have that many games live.
And I don’t understand the british odds which is the reason why I can’t be with Bet365 or these agencies that have this strange odds system :-(.
What is 5/2 , 1/6 , 13/8 , and so on, how can I calculate that into european odds like 1.36, 4.25 and so on which are much easier to understand. :-)
Maybe it is just me but I think the european odds system is much better :-)
On Bet365 you can change your setting to use decimal odds dude, it’s really very easy.
Aaaarghhhh.
See it now, oh my it was so easy. :-) I just did not look for it.
Maybe I put some money also into my bet365 account which I just recently created to have more options reagrding live in-play games. I am though not much fan off live in-play games.
But thanks Ryan for informing me on this :-)
This case is closed.
when the bookies bump the goal lin e up from over 2.5 to over 2.5, 3.. Does that mean over 2.5 is being heavily backed?
I saw that this question about calculating the odds decimals-to-fractions and vice versa has appeared several times so far. So, for those whose bookies don’t offer the option of swithing between systems automatically, or for those who are not scared of maths but have not had tme to figure it out by themselves, let me explain how you do this in your head :)
1) decimals to fractions, ie. why 1.4 in decimals is 2/5 in fractions:
-subtract 1 from the decimal value: 1.4-1=0.4
-convert a decimal into a simplest fraction possible: 0.4=4/10=2/5
2) fractions to decimals ie. why 5/13 in fractions equals 1.38 in decimals
-you might need a calculator, unless you’re very smart (i’m a girl, so it goes without saying i will need one!)
- divide the top of the fraction by the bottom of the fraction: 5:13~0,38
-add 1 to the result: 0.38+1=1.38
voilà ;)
good luck to everybody!
Nothing to bet on! gone for a SMALL stake on charlton to beat dagenham by 2 or more goals and the same with Charlton against Northampton.
£20 at 8/1, just for fun – not holding my breath!
Hey guys ive been looking at bets for the euro qualifiers and i cannot believe what i found wales to beat montengro on friday are almost …
5/1 thats amazingly good odds, bale and bellamy are on fire and with the on form millwall battering ram morison upfront we have more than enough to beat montenegro out there especially with their talisman from fiorentina Steven Jovetic out for 6 months. Wales are likely to go with wingers in bale on the left and bellamy on the right who was frighteningly good against Luxembourg, yes it was only luxembourg but wales played very well and I can see them at least getting a draw out in montenegro.
Get on it now before the odds drop
Wales to beat Montenegro at 5/1 or the Draw or wales at 2/1
thats my tip for the week and a bargain in my eyes.
Good Luck
Always hard to pick a away win on these international games, but since Ian is promoting his national team I have to do the same Iceland vs. Norway, I know that Iceland has a shit team but Norway is also shit, so if Iceland is going to win a game in this tournament then it is against Norway our friends at home. The odds of a home win here is 4.15 and home win with a draw is 1.85 which is very generous because a draw is in my opinon most likly outcome.
One note: Gunnleifur Gunnleifsson is the national team goalkeaper and he plays for KR, he was fantastic against KR and won that game yesterday for FH. He is in terrific form and could easily win us at least one point.
So for risk takers Iceland home win or a double change 1X is very interesting bet. Mixing that with Wales and you have a very interesting double :-)
Iceland: Home win
Wales: Away win
Odds: 17.64
I just might do this :-)
Wales are more than capable of beating montenegro, and our pace on the wings is going to frighten the life out of them , id be cautious though with wales as players tend to drop out with so called injuries but thats usually worse in the friendly games.
Myhill
Ricketts(Bolton) Collins (Villa) Morgan(Preston) Gunter(Forest)
Williams(Swansea)
Bellamy(Cardiff) Edwards(Wolves) Ledley (Celtic) Bale(Spurs)
Morison(Millwall)
Aslong as there are no more inury setbacks with Ramsey(arsenal), Collison(west ham), Gabbidon(west ham), Blake(Cardiff)already out . I can see Wales winning the game and getting a draw at the least.
Whereas I agree that the price is rather long on Wales, they’re still facing a very good host. The only two sides to have won at Montenegro in the last 2 years are Italy (understandably) and Albania in a smash-and-grab 1-0 win lately in a friendly. Sure, they’ll be missing Jovetic for this game and it’s a blow for them – it would be for any side. However, Vukcevic is an adequate replacement and a forward line containing Purovic, Vucinic, and Delibasic has me more fearful than Wales’. Montenegro are not Serbia but they’re not far off either. I rate them about level with the likes of Bosnia-Herzegovina or Republic of Macedonia so I ask myself if I’d back Wales to win at those two sides and the answer is that I wouldn’t.
Good luck mate – I think you guys can get a draw but I don’t think you’ll win it!
Yeah Dagur so far in wales today everyone trained and no new injury concerns so fingers crossed wales will take a strongish team, if ramsey and collison were not injured Wales would win quite comfortably on our day we can give anyone a game as the past has proved.
Yeah Ian i know where your coming from it is a tough place to go and wales could easily get turned over there but I just fancy it with bellamy and bale on such great form and causing havoc down those wings, being a passionate welsh man its obviously a little heart ruling my head but i feel wales are overdue a good win and fingers crossed we get it.
Hey dagur its worth a go even if u put wales or draw and iceland or draw you will still get good odds!
Iceland has a good record against Norway because both teams play similar football and the players are very similar. The three last matches have ended in draws, one in Iceland and two in Norway. So Iceland is not that bad against Norway like the odds suggest.
So I have maybe found the perfict ticked.
Iceland: 1X
Wales: X2
England: 1
Portugal: 1
Odds: 5.59
England is so strong at home and I don’t see Portugal loosing against Cyprus at home (have won all 8 games between them).
So this is probably my ticked. Will give it some time before adding it but looks really good at this time :-)
Haha nobody saw Portugal drawing at home to Cape Verde Islands either mate ;) Be very careful with Portugal. Cyprus are a lot better than CVI are and Portugal are not good at all, especially with all the controversy about Queiroz in the camp.
yeh mate that looks really good , im still baffled at how bet 365 have got wales at almost 5/1. If however bellamy drops out and or bale i wouldnt touch it
The games are on Friday so we probably need to wait a few days before placing the bets, see how the lineups are going to look like. Hope Wales will have its strongest team and Iceland allows the young and fresh guys like ex. Reading player Gylfi Thor sigurdsson who was signing for Hoofenheim today.
Eidur smari Gudjonssen will not play for Iceland against Norway which I think is good for the national team, he has not been delivering for our national team in a long time, does not seems to be interested in playing these national games. Hope though that he signs a deal with some english club today so he can start playing again and get his spirit back, he is on a very low period these days.
Wales have included Bellamy and Bale in their squad, while the only significant pull-out so far is Danny Gabbidon. Montenegro has Vucinic and Vukcevic though, but I still think there is still huge value for Wales win. I will bet on Wales to win soon (:
X2 IS A GOOD BET WALES.
I THINK ALBANIA 10/1 IS GREAT VALUE OR 3/1 X2
ALBANIA FOOTBALL ON THE WAY UP AS ROMANIAN FOOTBALL GOING THE OTHER WAY
lithuania to beat scotland interests me aswell ….almost 3/1 on some sites
Lithuania aren’t what they were 2 years ago. I’d need to see the Scotland squad but this can be a draw with neither side scoring goals.
I’d agree normally but…Romania have made a bit of an improvement lately; they were good last match. We also have to bear in mind that all the Balkan countries hate Albania so I think they might just turn up here. I’d probably call a risky draw but yeah – I think there’s value in laying Romania whilst they’re as long as 3/1.
Fun bet lithuania/albania/wales treble lol
stranger things have happened! lol wales is the bargain bet though, the bookies are nuts
OH GOD somebody mentioned the PORTUGAL v CAPE VERDE islands match. Portugal on the handicap i had, (-2) that was a horrible, horrible day. 0-0, portugal didnt even score! That result scares me every time when i have a “banker”….
You know, I feared for them in that game. I made a call that the game would go under 3.5 goals that day because I know how bad they’ve become as a team and they were. Even I tuned in with 10 mins left and thought “I can’t see them failing to win this game on Sky Sports News later on – just can’t see it!” so I put a small stake on them to win then and they still fucked up. Seriously unreliable side – will take an awful lot for me to back them with any confidence at all. I just can’t back a side to win that has no strikers!
Come on guys, that was just one off.
the home record from Portugal is great, probably one of the best in europe, they have not lost in 13 games and only lost 6 games since 2004. In last 13 games they have won 9. Cyprus has not won away in last 10 games and only done 3 draws in these 3 games, against Ireland, Georgia and Montenegro.
I hate betting against Ian, but Portugal is going to win this game against Cyprus, though they play defencefly and don’t have any real strikers.
Haha what about the draw at home to Albania and the 3-2 defeat at home to a Denmark side that doesn’t score goals?
They’ve beaten some decent sides but predominantly poor sides. If you have faith in them then go for it mate, but I certainly don’t because they don’t have a good enough team to convince me – just one world-class player carrying a team in general.
Ian you are the guru here and it is hard to argue with you :-)
But I can’t see Cyprus winning with their away track record, http://www.soccerway.com/teams/cyprus/cyprus/matches/
But the odds for the game are not really interesting so taken it into account that Portugal is not good at attacking, sure picking a more reliable team is probably the best way to go.
But Portugal has a good home record and Cyprus a really bad away record which make this game statisticly good.
Yeah, but Cyprus don’t need to win here to fuck up the bet – they just have to draw :) Everyone is entitled to their opinion but I cannot stress enough how dangerous it is to back Portugal, Italy, France, and England currently. Fuck big names; they’re in terrible footballing states internationally and should not be relied upon unless playing San Marino or Andorra in my view :)
Also Portugal has won all the last 8 games between the two nations, dated from 1972.
http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2010/09/03/europe/european-championships/portugal/cyprus/922683/head2head/
At international level, that’s particularly irrelevant as Cyprus hasn’t had a good side until 5 years ago!! :D
Portugal will probably win, but im not risking anything on them!
IAN if you had to pick one game from the english paint trophy coupon, who would you choose to win?
ive gone for hartlepool/charlton to win by 2+ (for fun). But i fancy a bigger bet as i got spare cash.
Ehhh…not my favourite tournament but the ones that look good for me tonight are Oldham, Port Vale, Bournemouth vs Torquay over 2.5, and possibly Rotherham.
Off topic, but can someone tell me how to calculate ROI? If I have staked 21 units on 9 different bets (different stakes from 1 to 4 units) and profit is 16,98 units in total, does that give me an 80,8% ROI?!
Gone for a straight single on OVER 2.5 goals in the Bornemouth v Torquay match @1.8. At least i wont care who scores!
The 2nd round in the league cup had lots of games going over 2.5 goals. We could see the same in tonight’s Johnstones Paint Trophy.
So doing a over 2.5 goals could be the way to go like in the league cup games.
a terrible day for choice today, fortunatly its saved by serie b tonight!
Does anyone hear use PayPal to deposit money on their betting accounts? I was hoping to switch to Bwin but apparently they don’t accept Visa debit cards so I might have to do it through PayPal. Does anyone know if there any kind of charges involved?
Yeah, they charge 2% per amount added unless you use PayPal.
Yeah, mate. It says 0% when you use PayPal though. But I wanted to know the charges to deposit and withdraw money using PayPal because they have their own charges, don’t they?
I’ve never withdrawn with Bwin, to be honest! I’ve always blown my cash with them haha. Email and ask!
Haha! Well, I was going to sort it all out for tomorrow because I wanted to stick £50 in my new Bwin account and it looks like the only way would be through PayPal. However, if Bwin’s charge is 0% for PayPal then PayPal’s fee would probably substitute that. I asked here in case someone has done it and they know the deposit and withdrawals changes that PayPal use.
Just use 365 and fuck ‘em all ;)
I have the worst luck ever whenever I’ve used Bet365 and it’s probably because I don’t get on with their website. See, with William Hill, I feel comfortable and I know what I’m doing there. But their amount of football fixtures are very limited and their customer service is crap so my reason for wanting to use Bwin is because I think their website is pretty good and would be a good alternative to William Hill. It seems really stupid but I like websites I can easily nagivate and feel comfortable with. The only stumbling block might be the fact that you can only withdraw a minimum of £20 from Bwin. I guess it’ll just help me concentrate on increasing my balance. I might just give it a try and then just see what the fees are after lol.
Get used to 365 – you won’t regret it. I hated the layout at first too but they’re far better than other bookies, really. They give you like a £5 per week to be with them for no reason?! It’s good stuff!
I used to have accounts at ten to twelve different betting sites before I decided bet365, paddypower and nordicbet.
Bet365 for liveplay and handicap lines
Paddypower for good English/British coverage
Nordicbet for minor Nordic leagues like Swedish division 4 etc.
Haven´t used PP for a while though. Had BWin but was always getting on the “small slot machines” during liveplay. Especially that card skill game (if you´ve seen it). Not that I lost much (some probably, inevitably!) but it was just distracting.
Yeah, the same used to happen with me when I was on PaddyPower. I used to get distracted by playing their games like Deal Or No Deal, etc. Saying that, I used to do alright playing Roulette but that’s more luck than anything because it’s completely random. Anyway, I don’t PaddyPower’s website so I don’t use it anymore unless they email me with free money.
I guess I’ll have to go back to Bet365 or stay with William Hill but I did like the look of Bwin but now there’s the issue of not being able to deposit money so that’s out of the window.
1 Port Vale @ 2.37
2 Hartlepool @ 2.05
3 Over 2.5 Torquay @ 1.72
4 Over 2.5 Southampton @ 1.72
5 Over 2.5 Charlton @ 1.80
I’m an idiot for daring to bet on this crazy cup, but fingers crossed ehhh.
I also did over 2.5 for Bournmouth/Stevenge/Oldham
I also include a win for Rotherdam in the other accy of the day.
Crazy to bet on this cup but it is so much fun :-)
I knew this was stupid bet from me going for over 2.5 in this crazy cup.
Hope Roterdam wins, but low scoring games.
Might be wrong but I don’t think Oriente Petrolero are from an area of Bolivia where there is high Altitude!
Using the trustworthy source of Wikipedia – I’ve checked the ‘Elevation’ which I’m guessing but not sure is the same as Altitude – 1100ft in Santa Cruz where OP are based, compared to 12k feet and 9k feet in La Paz and Sucre. Either way gl.
Only bet for me tonight is Shrewsbury-Oldham overs.
Ready further up the page mate :) Someone beat you to it.
Santa Gruz were the Oriente team comes from has the Elevation of 416 m (1,365 ft).
Santiago were Universidad de Chile comes from has the Elevation of 520 m (1,706 ft)
So Universidad de Chile plays in higher altitude then Oriente Petrolero so this will not help. But teams from Chile travells badly to Bolivia so I am hoping for at least a draw.
ah sorry! didn’t read all the comments
would you still recommend Oriente after this?
Evidently :) Lessened confidence, admittedly – I prefer it when they have altitude advantage and Universidad are a good side – but as I said in the preview – Oriente are not your atypical Bolivian side. I wouldn’t back a side purely for altitude advantage mate. It is a risky bet, sure, but I still like it :)
Update will be later than normal tonight guys, just so you know. I don’t want it overlapping the only two games of today that I’m interested in is all!
Yes I feel I should have also only been interested in two games today too. That´s what time on one´s hands does! First time in three months I have half a day off and Hoffenheim messes it up! Should have left them alone! Used them as half a banker today :/
Gillingham are fat too long in play @ 4.75 against Southend.. Im backing them
wat a laugh!!! loads of games on the weekend and i get crippled and then today theres fuck all games on and i win 3 accys worth 540e. life is funny. hope ye guys got something outta today
oh well :( i was close on my double charlton/hartlepool to both win by2+ 8/1.
my main bet of Bournemouth match over 2.5 failed. worth a try tho!
im actually looking forward to a break, ill be back Saturday!
My 2.5 goals in the Football League Trophy failed, was rather stupid of me.
But if Oriente and Barcelona don’t loose tonight then I will get an fivefold. I am though really scared that Universidad de Chile will win. Keep my fingers crossed, it will be exciting evening.
I need to hold back now over these next days because this is the time you might get yourself into bad bets like this Football League Trophy which I should not got myself into. But the loss was really small, but reminds you off picking as safe bets as you can. Not get into to risky bets.
Fucking coral again post odds of 15/8and when I bet they say I can only have 13/8 they are cunts – well u get your wish cos I.ain’t going in there ever again and fuckin Lisburn won too missed Luton a fortune grrrrrrrr
out on not luton fucking i phone i hate it and i bet on bloody southend too – i am so angry tonight
Ian tempted to take both your Copa Sudamerica tips in a double @ 4 (quite hefty stakes)… What ya reckon
No mate. I like both but only as singles – too risky as a double.
Marz, if you are around how do you think Beijing Guoan vs. Tampines Rovers will go ? I am thinking off doing a away win and have it in a accy with wins from ZalagerszegiTE and Aragua tomorrow.
Will you do a preview off the Singapoor game? you are always so early morning my time on this site, that most of the time I miss your preview because I am at sleep when you post it :-)