Santos vs Avai

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Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between Santos and Avai. Both sides have played well this season and are both currently in the top eight as a result so we should hopefully see a good game of football tonight.

The reason Santos are doing so well is because of the nucleus of home-grown talent in the squad. The likes of Neymar, Ganso, Andre, and Wesley formed an exciting attacking unit and Santos have benefited strongly from it. However, as per usual, Santos have been forced to part with some of those players for financial reasons. Neymar and Ganso are yet to move on despite both being heavily linked with moves abroad. Andre has signed for Dynamo Kiev and Wesley has signed for Werder Bremen to replace Turkish German international Mesut Ozil after his departure to Real Madrid. Santos are used to this kind of problem, however, which is why they’ve signed Rodrigo Possebon from Manchester United and Keirrison on loan from Barcelona. Add those players to a side that already has experienced Edu Dracena and Arouca in it and the problem doesn’t seem too bad. Admittedly, there will be a teething period and it could very well start tonight but Santos remain a very determined unit and should prove to be such again tonight despite having recently lost influential midfielder Wesley.

Santos bring a good level of momentum into this game following four consecutive wins and with seven goals scored along the way, they’re not showing any signs of slowing down despite their departing youngsters, impressively enough. They’ve already won five out of seven at home this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game so it’s pretty much a given that in-form Santos will score against Avai tonight, just as they have done for the last four consecutive meetings between the two sides.

The big question is “will Avai join the party?”, to which my answer is “yes”. Why? Well, Avai are a plucky side. They’ve got a lot of guile and tenacity and although they do lack in the defensive department, they never seem to be short on goalscoring, although that is a more relevant statement when compared to their home form. Avai do average scoring a goal per away game at present but considering that they average scoring over two goals per home game, it’s not that an impressive record anymore. Avai actually average conceding two goals per away game at the moment so they’ve got defensive problems here before the match begins! Avai were on a barren run before their trip to relegation-threatened Atletico Goianiense last match as they claimed a 2-2 draw, which was their first points and first goals for three consecutive games, a run which included a home game against their opponents tonight, Santos. However, this was little more than a blip on Avai’s form chart as their other head-to-head statistics reveal with both sides scoring at least once in their previous three meetings. Their last game at Santos actually ended 1-3 in favour of Avai earlier this season in the Copa Sudamericana so don’t doubt the visitors today despite their poor run of form – the likes of Caio and Vandinho often have other ideas when sides write them off!

All in all, Santos aren’t at their most complete due to Wesley departing despite the form chart showing otherwise and Avai aren’t as bad as the form chart makes out either. I think the bookies have been just a little lenient with the odds on show tonight as both sides are simply goalscoring sides by nature and their head-to-heads almost always reflect that.  

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/6.

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Israel vs Malta – Malta to win with +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.

I genuinely can’t believe my eyes with these odds. Ok, Israel are a good side on their day if they somehow find an alternative to Benayoun carrying them but they’re not good enough to earn 1/12 here! They’re a decent possession side and they’re not easy to beat but they’re certainly not natural goalscorers. The only time they’ve beaten a side to a sufficient level for the above handicap to fail was a somewhat uncharacteristic 7-0 win against Luxembourg last year – the last time prior to that was Estonia in 2007. Don’t get me wrong here – the likes of Katan, Sahar, and Arbeitman are good strikers, as is Argentinian striker Colautti, but they’re not deadly at this level. Israel are a sound side but they’re simply not ruthless enough to destroy Malta today, in my humble opinion, although they should ultimately win the game.

I’d be the first one to admit that Malta aren’t exactly world-beaters but what they are is hard to break down. They’ve played three games this year. They lost 1-2 at home to Finland despite matching their Scandinavian visitors for the majority of the game. They were then undone 3-0 away from home by a good Germany side before holding Republic of Macedonia to a 1-1 draw at home a few weeks ago. Malta aren’t the walkover side that they used to be. With the likes of Mifsud and Bogdanovic playing abroad, Maltese experience on the continent is starting to increase and their overall football is beginning to show it. They’re not good enough to be taking points off the Israelis today barring a miraculous display but I do think they’re good enough to stop the Israelis from making this a walk in the park. I’ve got scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 in my head but I’d be surprised to see anything more than that.

Obviously this isn’t a dead certain bet and remember what I said the other day regarding caution when betting on international games! However, the odds on Israel winning this game are too short for my liking so I think giving the Maltese side a +2.5 goal handicap at generous odds of 10/11 could be very worthwhile today if things unfold as I expect them to.

Verdict: Malta to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.

Spain vs Netherlands – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.

I don’t really think there’s much I can write here, regrettably! I often have this problem with international selections as there isn’t an awful lot you can write about. Simply put – these are two goalscoring sides with very talented players. Netherlands’ last five consecutive games have gone over 2.5 goals (including a 2-1 win against Spain) and three out of Spain’s last five games have gone over 2.5 goals. Spain’s defence isn’t as good as Netherlands’ but they make up for it by boasting a marginally better attack. Netherlands don’t need to win this game as they’ve already qualified for Denmark 2011 but Spain could do with winning this one as they’re four points clear of Poland with two games remaining and with their last game being away at Poland, three points today would be very welcome indeed. I therefore see Spain attacking a lot and the Dutch having some joy on the counter-attack which leaves me with over 2.5 goals at decent odds. I’d leave the home win though – 8/11 leaves a sour taste in my mouth for a game between two good sides so I’d perhaps hit it in-play if you’re interested in the 1X2 side of this game.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.

No multiples appeal to me today, guys, although feel free to check out my thoughts on the rest of the day’s action below!

UEFA European Championship Qualifier:

Israel vs Malta (6) 1-0

UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier:

Spain vs Netherlands (7) over 2.5 goals

Copa Sudamericana:

Olimpia Asuncion vs Defensor Sporting (4) 2-1
Velez Sarsfield vs Banfield (6) under 2.5 goals

Brazilian Serie A:

Santos vs Avai (5) 2-2
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Goianiense (5) 2-1

Singaporean S-League:

Armed Forces vs Sengkang Punggol (5) over 2.5 goals

Enjoy your free betting tips!

112 thoughts on “Santos vs Avai”

  2. Hi,

    About israel – Katan isn’t playing for the national team anymore, but there are many good strikers that play in europre, mostly in belgium as “elyaniv barda.” Israel got a great defence line and goalkeeper (dudu awate from mallorca,) and for yosi benayoun..well, no one expect him to make effort for the national team..He isn’t the most important player.

    Israel got a new manager, luis fernandez, and he is trying to build a good squad.

    I don’t believe israel will beat them in more than two goal difference, but a 2-0 seems like a logical result.

    • Thanks for the input mate :)

      Israel does have some good players, absolutely! Shame about Katan but it shows the ascent of Israeli football. I just don’t think they’ve got enough to destroy malta today. Dudu is a good keeper!

  3. I am down to my final game in my fourfold which is Atletico PR vs. Ceara

    This fourfold is:
    Ferencveros 1
    River Plate 1
    Vitoria 1X
    Atletico PR 1X

    I have lost 4 final games like this in a row (Vasco, Real Madrid, Inter and Barcelona). If this does not come through then I am under somekind of a spell :-)

    Ceara should never win Atletico PR at home, I will know in 90 min.

    • It looks pretty safe at the minute mate. I was going to bet on them and I still might because they’ve pretty much dominated the first half and the odds are quite appealing. However, I am on Fluminense though and they look good for their lead. :)

    • Agree, River Plate should have won 5 – 2, the Guaraní Goalkeeper was really cool in his superman outfit :-) And talk about the weather, the players were not used to play in this kind of weather, really had an affect on the game. Here in Iceland we are so used to play in all kinds of weather but see those guys struggling with it was something to watch.

      Very interesting match.

  4. Because there are so few games to bet on tomorrow some of you might be interested in the icelandic 1 division derby between Thor vs. KA. Both those team come from Akureyri which is the largest city in Iceland outside the Reykjavik area. So this is a huge came in Akureyri and therefore will be very interesting. These games always ends with some team winning and this time I think it will be Thor which is performing much better in the league then KA.

    • already have em in an accy. really like them at home. love leikner more tho :D have them with singapore armed forces. 4/7 is a bit short considering their form but they have a great all round record against sengkang. thanks for the iceland info dagur, u help us out alot :)

    • Dagur, according to soccerstats.com, it seems like one or two of their top goalscorers (steingrimsson and diztl) will not be playing tonight because of 5 yellow cards? Is this correct, or am I wrong?

    • I called the Football institude here in Iceland regarding those players. Three players from KA (David Disztl, Dean Edwards Martin and Gudmundur Oli Steingrimsson) were all suspended for one match but it will not come to affect until next friday.

      Which mean that they are able to play the game against KA but will be suspended when KA plays at home against Vikingur september 11th.

      Suspensions here in Iceland take affect on Fridays so they are lucky this time, but this means KA will have a difficult time against Vikingur.

    • I made mistake. The suspension players come from KA and are able to play against Thor not Vikingur which is the game they play after the Thor game.

  5. I don’t bloody believe it! £8 down now from my original £50. :( I lost £3 earlier on Albacete (DNB) against Granada and now Fluminense have conceeded a last minute goal which has now lost me £5. Why can I never get off to a good start when I put money aside like that?!

  6. Oh well. Genoa sign Hallenius afterall. Deal just came through. He will play for the remains of the season for Hammarby though and then move. Just an update.

  9. Bit of advice Ian asian hadicap 2/2.5 odds 2.12 Malta.
    Does that mean they can lose by 2 goals and still win bet?
    If yes i might put a single bet on that.

    • On bet365, they tends to show more handicap result than Asia Handicap… Is there a lot of different between them two or they are pretty much the same??

      Cos i have put down Malta +3 for 10/11

    • If you mean the +2, +2.5 asian handicap then no your bet will not be completely won if Malta lose by 2… Half your stake will be void, and the other half will be won… Say you place £100, £50 will be made void and go straight back in to your balance ant the other £50 will become £50 x 2.12 = £106

    • Mario they’ve just released the additional asian handicap market, I spoke to them, their customer service is bloody good. The standard +3 handicap is the same as the Asian +2.5 mate so no worries.

  10. after a brazilian massacre im hoping over 2.5 goals for saff v sengkang

    sengkang are a very defensive team but im imagining they can put at least a few past a shit saff defence tonight

    • quite a few injuries on both sides, sengkang are missing Diallo and captain Yusoff so im hoping that leaves gaps in their defence

      its saff’s first game at their home stadium for months so they will be rearing to go for this one

  11. Best bet of the day is the Malta handicap +3 evens.
    I can only see losing the bet is 3 0 but i think it will end 1 0.
    If Malta score HAPPY DAYS
    Malta played together 3 weeks ago 1 1 draw with machdonia which i think is important.

  13. My bet for today:

    Match: Thor Akureyri – KA Akureyri
    League: 1. Delid, Iceland
    Bet: Thor Akureyri AH -1
    Odds: 2.05 (Bet365)

    Thor Akureyri is unbeaten last 5 matches, and has covered handicap in the last 2 matches (4-0 and 5-0). They are 2 points behind first place in the league, so should be motivated to get on top of the table. KA Akureyri has 2 draws and 1 loss the last 3 games , and are placed in the middle of the table. Thor won 2-0 in the last meeting in July, and should cover the handicap again. According to stats at soccerway.com, it seems like KA will have at least one of their top goal scorers out tonight (5 yellow cards), but this is not confirmed. I hope Dagur can help me confirm this…?

    • Exactly my thinking mate! I will probably also take the handicap if someone can confirm that both those players will be missing… I checked and they do indeed both stand on 5 yellow cards after both picking up cards in their last game.

    • Based on my call to the Football institude here in Iceland, the KA players David Disztl, Dean Edwards Martin and Gudmundur Oli Steingrimsson were all suspended for one match but it will not come to affect until next friday.

      So they are able to play against Thor but not against Vikingur.

    • Guys, remeber that both these team come from Akureyri, they don’t have to travel to Reykjavik nor are they receiving visiting teams from Reykjavik. So traveling does not affect in this game, which is does in all other games these team plays. Last scoreline from Thor does therefore in my opinon don’t matter in this game

      So I don’t think Thor will win this game easily, this will be an even game and could be won with a single goal, and max 2.

      From 2000 these teams have meet 21 times KA has won 10, Thor 9 and 2 time there has been a draw.

      Home advante does not affect here, but Thor needs to win this more and therefore I am picking a win from them today.

    • Strange rules, i thought a player got suspended the very first match after 5 yellow cards. Vikingur then gets the advantage, and not Thor. Weird!

      Maybe I should have confirmed this before I took the bet, but with AH I get the money back if they only win with 1 goal. I still believe they will win, guess they want to take the top position in the league tonight.

      Thanks for all the info, dagur!

    • Thor to win by 2 goals is very possible.

      Here the football agency on tuesdays declears players to suspensions (it was on the 31 of august and the 24th of august before) but it does not take affect until noon on fridays, so if this game had been played on friday at 18:00 then the bans would affect for that game but because the game is on thursday which is an unusual football day here in Iceland, these players can play this game. This is what I was told :-) so strange situation but 2 goal win is quite possible.

    • The rules like i get it are like this:

      If you receive a red card you get a straight ban in next game.

      When you get a ban based on 5 yellow cards then it takes affect next friday after the ruling has been made that is every tuesdays here in Iceland.

  15. Ian thanks alot for yesterday’s tips on SCDR leagues. But Gimnasic Fucked it up. What is ur take on the Iceland league tonight? Is over a safe bet? Otherwise i feel spain U21 over, Al Jazira over, santos Over. Can i add Olimpia Asuncion straight win to this let me know.

  16. I would have prefered to do malta +2.5 10/11 than asian 2/2.5 11/10 but i have placed the bet now so to late. Half bet void if 2 0 or 3 1

  17. damn quiet today – i will back ilves if they climb from 2/9 thats far too short considering their poor form (they are the kakkonens rops) if they get near 1/3 or 2/7 i will back them

    • yep cause its 2-1 now
      thanks marz / ian on the over tip. got back some dough on a stupid brazilian serie b game i had yesterday, backed fig……? and it was the only home team plus one other out of 10 not to win yesterday.

    • what sucks though is i only got 1.65 when most agencies were offering 1.80-1.85. sportingbet sucks sometimes like that, but they did offer 2.10 on the under

    • HAHA I love when that happens! Stuck a load on them a minute before they scored… Fingers crossed they hold on.

  19. Malta +2.5 is drifting… It’s gone from 1.9 to 2.1, hmmm any possible reason for this? Or just a bunch of people betting without the help of TFT?

    • I guess so hence the price drift… I think Ian’s spot on with his reasoning though and I still reckon Malta will put up a good fight. I think at the current price of 2.1 there’s value, so I’m on it.

    • People I´m talking to are all over Israel, mainly because of the players at their disposal tonight. Sahar and Benayoun to tear Malta apart.

      I´ve left it alone bar a small stake on Malta +2.

  20. Gone with Malta +3 at @1.53 on Betfair. Looks a decent odd for such a strong handicap.
    With Israel winning by 3 the bet is void, losing only with 4 or more, that honestly looks quite unlikely..

  22. on STAN JAMES, they have match handicap “Israel -2″ 1.80 and the asian handicap “isreal -2.5″ 1.84. arent these two bets the same?

    • For -2, if Israel wins by 2 goals margin, your bet is returned (void). But for -2.5, it’s gone mate

    • They’re the same if the first one, the -2, is european handicap not the asian handicap…You often find you get slightly better odds backing one or the other so it’s always good to check.

  23. Right I’ve gone for Ian’s tips in a double that I really fancy:

    Over 2.5 Spain v Holland U21
    Malta +2.5

    Odds: 3.4

    Good luck lads.

    • Ryan, you posted about that site yesterday right? The guy predicting over 3.5 goals on odds in the 3/1 and 4/1 region? I mean I took that bet yesterday (thanks to you!) and it was really something. It wasn´t that big a stake obviously but still…

      Looks like he won´t give out another though… ! Shame!

      You had a go at it?

    • I went big on it in the end dude ;) £300 staked!! I just thought he was so confident, and I won some the day before so thought I’d take the risk.. Happy days :) No worries man, if I ever come across something like that again I’ll of course share it. Shame the guy’s now charging £100 a tip! Thank god Ian doesn’t charge ;)

    • Thanks mate, and thank you for your tips on the scandinavian games… I regularly profit from them because of you and Ian :)

      • You kidding? I always do :) Keep it up bro. I know the feeling though. About 1 out of every 175 people that visit this site comment per day so I wonder what the point is sometimes :D especially as some people just back against me blindly haha.

  24. thx ryan. i really dont see malta scoring at all, so for me its too risky to back them +2.5.

    im backing isreal -2.5 @ 1.85

    i think im the only one who is :)

    • I’m sure our Israeli friends can correct me if I’m wrong here but this Israeli line-up looks more experimental than clinical. Their attack doesn’t concern me massively although Arbeitmann is on the bench to bail them out of required. Malta are fielding a full-strength side though.

      Good luck anyway!

  25. For those of you who are thinking about having a go at the Sweden – Hungary game tomorrow. FYI the Swedish national team coach, Erik Hamrén, will do an Ancelotti and hand out the starting 11 at lunchtime (kick off 2000 Stockholm time). Might want to wait until then :)

    • Bet ain’t won yet mate although I fancy it if it goes into half-time like this. It’s not beyond Malta to score – Bogdanovic and Mifsud are good, experienced strikers. Malta might not score many but that’s not through a lack of chances – it’s through a lack of composure.

      • Haha cheers mate – you flatter me! You’re only as good as your results in this game so we’ll see how it develops :) If you like that bet though, you’ll love some of tomorrow’s ;)

        International football is mayhem though – never good for consistent wins!

  27. Good old malta! and funny thing is Pace is a very good friend of mine haha! nice having such a small country ;)

  28. Ian, I know you´re not covering the Russian first (or second) division anymore but FK Krasnodar (vs Mordovia) at 1.72 (b365) could be really something I think. Re-consider ! ;)

    • Could be a trap mate. Krasnodar aren’t playing well because they’re not scoring enough and although they’re better than Mordovia, Mordovia have notched up six goals in their last three away games. Could very easily be a 1-1 here. I’d need 10/11 to be interested in Krasnodar here.

    • Spatgo with the Russian div 1 games I like betting in play. They’re so unpredictable and the favourites tend to be priced too short, so if you wait a little in play you get much much better value for money.

  30. Great tips as usual dagur! thor 3-0 up with 10 mins to go :D. Always winnin me some cash whenever im with u on the icelandic games, cheers mate!

  33. A bit of a nerve-racking ending but Malta did us proud! My double has come in thanks to the overs in the Spain game as well, yet again I have to take my hat off to you Ian.. Bloody good tipping.

  34. Well done Ian good result the Malta bet. Also dagur cheers for Thor. All in all good day

  35. Pheeeeeewooo lol Thought malta was going to blow it.
    Good call Ian but hope it be a be easier tomorrow lol
    Got spain over 2 need oli asuncion to win for a double as well.

  36. :( i should have followed u guys. damn it i was supposed to wait till weekend to bet as i wouldnt normally look at malta v isreal…. :(

    well done ian the handicap demon!

  37. Belarus +1.5 looks pretty tasty! France have been in a deep shit since the World Cup and I don’t see them wading their way out of it for a while yet.. They will be missing a whole load of their ‘decent’ players because France’s FA ‘intelligently’ decided to ban them all. They’ll be missing Diarra and Benzema (not sure if thats a bad thing) as well.

    Leagues in France have only just begun whereas football in Belarus runs from April to October, so I’m hoping some of Belarus’ players will be more match fit.

    • Im liking the Andorra vs Russia,
      Andorra +3, 5/2
      Andorra +5 4/9

      Im liking these very much as i dont think Russia will score that many goals!

      But im going to wait and see Ian’s preview first before making any decision :D

  38. Thanks for the over 2.5 goals tip in the Spain U21 game, Ian! I only won £2 but it’s £2 in the right direction haha. ;)

  39. Cheers Ian for some fantastic tipping again today!!
    Never thought i could love a man but you changed all that :-)

  40. Check out the late goal market on B365!

    No goal after 87:59 in Russia match @1.83
    No goal after 88:59 in Holland match @1.80
    No goal after 87:59 in Spain match @1.83

    I have no doubt one of these will go wrong, but there’s no way the prices should be so high here, it’s crazy.

  41. My feelings for brazilian matches coming next:

    Santos vs Avai
    Santos to win @1.57
    Both teams to score @1.70
    Over @1.64
    Over 3.5 @2.62

    and

    Sao Paulo vs Atletico Goianiense
    Sao Paulo to win @1.63
    Over 2.5 @2.10

  42. Hi

    I am reading that Thor had a comfortable game against KA and was always going to win it. KA received 4 yellow cards in the game so they are in real trouble when they face Vikingur at home on saturday 11th, remeber that date, I guess we will have good odds on away victory for Vikingur on that day. KA will at least be missing 3 players for that game.

    Thor is on a super form these days so have them in mind in future games. There are 3 teams that will battle hard for the two top places; Thor, Vikingur and Leiknir. Next games in this division are on saturday and there we will have lots of interesting games. If everything goes like plan we should see 4 defently home wins from, vikingur, Leiknir, IA and Fjolnir. Don´t know what the odds will be but I can’t see anything else then confortable wins for those teams, at least they are not going to loose.

    This was a low betting day for me, but my prediction of Thor, Armed Forces and Brno winning came through but with very low profit.

    I am going to be bold and lay Norway against Iceland and lay Montenegro against Wales. So I am thinking of:

    Iceland 1X
    Wales X2
    England 1
    Portugal 1 (know that Ian thinks that is a really bold bet :-) )

    Norway team is in Iceland and they are really sure of themselfs so i pray to to all mighty that they don’t go away from this island with a victory :-)