Last warning – approach international games with massive caution! They’ll rob you blind before you know is keep stakes low here!
Typically, with international games everywhere, I’ve elected to pick a club game as my game of the day, which in this instance is the Polish Liga 1 game between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin. The two sides are both expected to compete for promotion this season and both certainly have the quality to do so and thus we should see a good game tonight.
However, out of the two sides, only Piast Gliwice have looked a dominant threat in the division with their visitors floundering due to a lack of goals. Piast have only won twice in five games, drawing their last three games consecutively. Generally speaking, I’d be afraid of that record but I feel it’s a tad misleading in this instance so I’m not overly concerned. The reason I dismiss that particular statistic is because two of those games were two of the most difficult trips to make in this division (promotion candidates LKS Lodz in a 2-2 draw and Flota Swinoujscie 0-0) due to the quality and/or home advantage of the two sides. Their one abject display was their 0-0 draw at home to Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski but all in all, they’ve looked good in Liga 1 with clear intent to make a swift return to the Ekstraklasa. Piast have already beaten fellow promotion rivals GKS Katowice at home this season and are generally a very strong home side so I fancy them a lot today as a result, particularly as the quality in their side makes them the best side in the division, in my opinion.
I have a lt of respect for their opponents Pogon Szczecin too but they’ve failed to impress me so far this season en mass. I expected them to win comfortably in their last match at home to Dolcan Zabki and they did so but that’s largely due to the inability of their opponents. In fact, that win was just their second Liga 1 win of the season with both wins coming at home against meager opponents, the other game being a win against Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski. They’ve played three away games in Liga 1 and have lost all of them, which isn’t good enough for a supposed promotion candidate. The defeat at LKS Lodz is acceptable because LKS are a good side. I can even accept the defeat at difficult Flota Swinoujscie! However, losing at Sandecja Nowy Sacz simply isn’t acceptable at all, especially having had a valuable lead at half-time only to throw it away and have a man dismissed petulantly. If Pogon defend as immaturely as they did in that game today, they’re going to be torn apart by a Piast side that is very much due a win. Pogon are capable of stopping them, especially with arguably the best goalkeeper in the division (Janukiewicz) in goal for Pogon, but they’ve demonstrated little ability on the road so far this season and I don’t see why that would start not.
On a good day, I’d half-fancy Pogon to get a draw here but given how little they’ve impressed me in difficult situations this season and considering that Piast are the better side, I have to favour the hosts here. Piast are favourites for promotion and I’ll be surprised if they don’t earn an Ekstraklasa place again this year with the quality at their disposal. Piast are often a force at home so as long as their strikers turn up today, the odds on the home win should turn out to be a little too generous here.
Team news – Piast miss Chalbinski, Halgas, and new loan signing Maycon whereas there are no notable absences for Pogon. It’s also worth noting that Piast manager Brosz sits this one (and the next one) out in the stands after offending a referee against Ostrowiec but I don’t expect that to massively impact Piast’s play today.
Verdict: Piast Gliwice to win at 6/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Armenia vs Republic of Ireland – both sides to score at 6/5.
Both of these sides are very much worthy of respect; underestimate them and you’ll be punished more often than not. However, the odds on Ireland to win this game are positively criminal! Ireland have won two out of their last ten away games and whereas they have faced some tricky sides along the way and battled as impressively as ever, they’re still not a clinical side. Armenia are no giants of “European” football but they’ve started playing well at home of late with two wins in their last four games. They’ve beaten Belgium and Uzbekistan 2-1 and 3-1 respectively and lost 2-1 at home to Spain rather respectably too. They were leading at home to Iran in their last game before an abject second-half saw them lose the game 3-1 but one thing is for sure – Armenia are developing quite rapidly. Their defence is still shaky but their attack is good as seven goals scored in their last four games indicates all too well. To beat this Armenia side you have to outscore them and that may be where Ireland stumble today. If Armenia’s defence was better than I’d probably edge laying Republic of Ireland at 11/10. Then again, with Duff and McShane having pulled out through injury, the lay does appeal to me. Howevr, Armenia’s defence isn’t good so both sides scoring in this game at 6/5 really appeals to me, especially considering that Armenia have scored for four consecutive home games and Ireland have scored in four consecutive away games!
Verdict: Both sides to score at 6/5.
Kazakhstan vs Turkey – Kazakhstan to win with +2.5 handicap at 4/5.
I love this bet for some reason! This bet would mean that Kazakhstan winning nineteen out of their last twenty-one home games, which I think is pretty damn convincing. The only two sides to batter Kazakhstan here were an on-fire Belarus and a fortunate England. As many of you many remember, England somehow won in Kazakhstan 4-0 despite not playing well. Only a lack of stamina towards the end of the game by the hosts and some suicidal defending gave England such a heavy win. Football-wise, Kazakhstan looked good; they just didn’t put the ball in the net. However, against what I can only describe as one of Turkey’s weaker sides, I fancy the Kazakhs to score at least one goal today. Turkey are obviously the better side but they’re not playing particularly well internationally and they’re really running rather short on quality nowadays. Their latest squad is puzzling with some of the players included not even playing for their clubs at the moment so I think there’ll be some dishamony in the Turkish camp with that in mind. Turkey have never been good defensively; they only know how to attack. This bet would mean that Turkey have lost sixteen out of their last seventeen away games with their only exception being an uncharacteristic 3-0 win at Ukraine last year. Turkey have never travelled well and although their potency is a concern, I really can’t see them running away with this unless they’re clever enough tactically to note how tired Kazakhstan get in the last third of each game. For me, giving Kazakhstan a +2.5 goal head start in this game looks very good indeed today.
Verdict: Kazakhstan to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Andorra vs Russia – Andorra to win with +4.5 handicap at 3/4.
To appreciate why this bet potentially has value, I want you to imagine for one moment that Andorra are not footballing minnows. Now look at Russia’s record of not having scored more than three goals in a game for their last twenty-one consecutive games. Then consider that giving Andorra +4.5 goals as a head start means that they’ve won seventeen out of their last nineteen home games. Only then can you begin to see what I mean here. If you go off names and are a complete fucking moron then you’ll no doubt say 0-10. Russia are a good side and obviously a lot better than Andorra but they’re simply not a big goalscoring side. They travelled to face Andorra at the end of the last European Championships campaign in a must-win game and won 1-0 in a nervous encounter. Andorra have got better since then and although they’re still a weak side, they simply don’t concede many goals anymore unless a side plays very well against them. Andorra have battled their way to 1-0 defeats against Cyprus and Albania in their two most recent friendlies and whereas they might not be footballing giants, they are respectable defeats away from home against two competent sides. Andorra have become a lot more physical as a side and I fancy them to cause Russia some problems today. For me, these odds are a gift today and although Russia could potentially win this game 0-8, I just don’t see enough in their squad for them to do so today and thus I think the value is with Andorra. I’m even tempted to try +3.5 goals at better odds but this one is safer so that’s my recommendation today.
Verdict: Andorra to win with +4.5 goal handicap at 3/4.
Faroe Islands vs Serbia - under 2.5 goals at 13/10.
This looks a classic under 2.5 goals game to me so I’ll be all over it. I really wanted to give the Faroes a +2.5 goal head start but the bookies are catching on that Faroe Islands are a lot harder to beat than they used to be. Kerr’s side are well-organised, disciplined, and generally very hard to beat. They faced Estonia in their most recent game away from home as a farewell to Faroese legend Jakup A Borg and they led for a great portion of the game before conceding two very late goals to lose the game. Faroe Islands are not rubbing rags anymore – they’re a very physical and hard-to-beat side. I don’t think they’re as potent as Scandinavian neighbours Iceland but I rate them as being equal defensively. We all know Serbia are a defensive side and are well-organised too but they’re not great goalscorers themselves. I think they’re going to find a very physical opponent today and that doesn’t suit Serbia – they prefer that as their advantage. Serbia should edge this game but for me, under 2.5 goals is the way to go here although I’d be lying if I said that backing Faroe Islands to win with +1.5 handicap at 33/20 didn’t intrigue me.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 13/10.
San Marino vs Netherlands – away win with -4.5 handicap at 6/5.
Do I really need to explain this one? San Marino are still terrible and the recall of one of Europe’s finest ever finishers Ruud van Nistelrooy to the Dutch side can only be a good thing. The odds are good enough to take too!
Verdict: Netherlands to win with a -4.5 goal handicap at 6/5.
Liechtenstein vs Spain – Liechtenstein to win with +3.5 handicap at 11/10.
This one is one of my more bold calls of the day but I still like it. Why? Well, Liechtenstein aren’t as bad as they were. A draw at Iceland last match showed that they’re not only capable of nicking the odd goal nowadays but they’re also a solid unit defensively. Peter Jehle is a good goalkeeper and the likes of Burgmeier bring experience to this side so don’t write the hosts off here. Giving the hosts a +3.5 goal head start in their last twelve home games means that Liechtenstein win eleven of those games. The only side to break that record was a rampant German side, running out 6-0 winners. Liechtenstein still have a long way to go in the football world but they’re certainly not rubbing rags anymore – they’ll not lie down against the world champions today. However, Spain are indeed world champions so caution must be used here. Spain are a magnificent side and we all know they could beat any international side on the planet if they so desired so it depends how they approah the game. My bet is based upon Spain’s general inability to break down sides that stick ten men behind the ball as they demonstrated numerous times in the World Cup and with none of their players having played consistently of late due to respective leagues having only just started so they may even be a tad rusty – Torres has certainly looked it. I do expect Spain to win this game, ultimately, but I don’t think it’ll be as flambuoyant as normal. Let’s face it – Spain are bad enough defensively to concede in this game so I think Liechtenstein can succeed with a +3.5 goal head start today, risky though it undoubtedly is.
Verdict: Liechtenstein to win with a +3.5 goal handicap at 11/10.
France vs Belarus – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
The state of France is well-documented with many big names suspended and a lot of unproven and fairly average players left behind. I rate manager Blanc as the finest in France currently so I’m sure he’ll improve them at least a little in the near future. However, they’re not there yet and losing a lead against Norway of late showed that in its entirety. France is in a transitional period and I don’t fancy them against anyone at the moment, basically. Belarus, however, are a side on the ride. Unlike most Eastern European nations, Belarus actually play good football and keep the ball well. They’re lethal on the counter attack with the pace of both Hleb brothers and they have some hard players in defence and midfield to provide the necessary steel when defending. I rate this Belarusian side very highly indeed and if they had only claimed Milevskiy before Ukraine did then I believe they’d be a very good side indeed nowadays. However, as it happens, they’re a side that keeps the ball well, keeps opponents out, but doesn’t score as many as they should. I fancy them to frustrate France tonight with their passing ability and talented players and ultimately I feel under 2.5 goals is on the card with either a low-scoring draw or a narrow victory on the horizon.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Belarus U21 vs Scotland U21 - home win at 5/4.
I’m a massive advocate of the Belarusian U21 side because they’ve been good for a few years now. They’re not at their best defensively but in attack, they have some really promising players. Dinamo Minsk midfielder Dmitri Rekish and Cagliari midfielder Mikhail Sivakov are very good players in midfield for the hosts and are generally instrumental to Belarusian success when they’re started together. Belarus’ U21 side is largely composed of Dinamo Minsk players, which aids the squad’s cohesion, understandably. Indeed, they play a similar style of possession football to the Belarusian giants so Belarus U21 have a good platform to build upon. Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih striker Varankov is proving a valuable asset in attack and generally, Belarus are looking pretty damn good. They’ve scored seven goals in their last three games to demonstrate their potency and even came from 3-1 down at Austria U21 last match to draw 3-3, demonstrating their belief against a very good Austria U21 side. Interestingly enough, the only side to beat them in their last six games was Scotland in a 1-0 defeat but that was away; this one is in Borisov. The only side to win at Belarus U21 in the last five years is Italy, which is an understandable defeat, really! They play good attacking football and although Scotland U21 are a fairly solid unit defensively, their criticism has to be not scoring enough goals. Their last game was a 2-2 draw at home to ten-men Azerbaijan U21, embarassingly enough, which displays how easily they can be contained on their day. The Scots are a feisty bunch and won’t make this easy for Belarus but I think the hosts will just outscore them today, to be honest. Odds of 5/4 are good in my view as I consider Belarus U21 to be one of the better U21 sides in Europe currently and it’s also worth noting that both sides need the points here as a win for either side lifts them above Austria into first place with just one game remaining after that.
Verdict: Belarus U21 to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Spain, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden U21, Northern Ireland U21, Sparta Rotterdam.
Recommended bets:
Sweden U21 and Belarus U21 at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:
Armenia vs Republic of Ireland (5) 1-1
Kazakhstan vs Turkey (5) 1-2
Moldova vs Finland (6) 0-0
Andorra vs Russia (8) 0-2
Faroe Islands vs Serbia (6) under 2.5 goals
Montenegro vs Wales (5) 1-1
Sweden vs Hungary (7) 2-1
Romania vs Albania (6) under 2.5 goals
Latvia vs Croatia (7) 1-2
Lithuania vs Scotland (6) 0-0
Luxembourg vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (7) over 2.5 goals
Estonia vs Italy (4) 0-0
Slovakia vs Republic of Macedonia (7) 2-0
San Marino vs Netherlands (10) -4.5 handicap
Liechtenstein vs Spain (8) -1.5 handicap
Belgium vs Germany (7) 1-2
Slovenia vs Northern Ireland (7) 2-0
Greece vs Georgia (7) 1-0
France vs Belarus (6) 0-0
England vs Bulgaria (7) 2-1
Iceland vs Norway (6) 1-1
Portugal vs Cyprus (4) 1-0
African Nations Qualifiers:
Algeria vs Tanzania (7) 2-0
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Slovenia vs Belgium (5) 1-1
Romania vs Russia (6) 1-1
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy (4) 2-1
Belarus vs Scotland (7) 1-0
Sweden vs Israel (8) 2-0
Finland vs Poland (4) 1-2
Norway vs Cyprus (7) 1-0
Czech Republic vs Germany (5) 2-1
Ukraine vs France (6) 1-1
Portugal vs England (6) 1-1
Switzerland vs Republic of Ireland (7) 2-1
Northern Ireland vs San Marino (10) -2.5 handicap
International Friendlies:
Venezuela vs Colombia (6) 1-1
Kuwait vs Syria (6) 1-0
China vs Iran (7) 1-1
Qatar vs Bahrain (7) 0-0
Oman vs Malaysia (5) 1-1(played in Doha)
Switzerland vs Australia (5) 1-0
Panama vs Costa Rica (5) 2-2
Argentinian Primera Division:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory (6) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs America de Cali (6) over 2.5 goals
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs Fredericia (6)
Finnish Ykkonen:
PK-35 Helsinki vs OPS Oulu (5) under 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Dundalk vs Bray Wanderers (7) 1-0
Galway United vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 1-2
Sporting Fingal vs Bohemians (5) 1-1
UCD vs Drogheda United (4) 2-1
Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers (7) 2-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs Volendam (6)
MVV Maastricht vs RBC Roosendaal (5)
Telstar vs Den Bosch (6)
Almere City vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (7)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Helmond Sport (6)
Dordrecht ’90 vs Zwolle (6)
Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard (8)
Veendam vs Emmen (5)
Polish Liga 1:
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin (7)
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Etoile (5) 2-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Ian, do you think there’s any value in handicapping sweden for their game against israel in the u21′s?
im backing holland – 4.5 @2.05. i was going to double up with spain as well but now ive read what you have to say im unsure!
i think holland will just score from the off and win very well. spain MAY be stifled for say 30 mins but even then…
im gonna stick to holland and just double my stake! ha ,simples :)
take holland ?????
Im quite bad when it comes to betting international games. Im thinking that I may step away from try to figure out who will win in the games and go more into guess how many goals.
Aiming less precise but still pick some wins.
Looking at that Netherland game for instance. You bet that they will prolly win with 5 goals margin. I feel its realistic but still I may want to look at odds on over 4,5 goals or even over 5,5 goals.
Just taking as an example. As a Swede reading the news the expectation in the Sweden – Hungary game I would say certain win for Sweden. Zlatan is motivated and hungry and he have good team mates. Sweden have a psychological advantage due to past meetings were Zlatan have won the game for Sweden against Hungary twice in championships qual games.
I know all of that but my own subjectivity may stop me from even look into Hungarys team of today. So it becomes like a half subjective analysis. Maybe its more interesting to play over 2,5 goals or even over 3,5 goal in Sweden match.
Cup games and international cup games is absolutely just another ball game than picking games from leagues were one have good info on last games, past meetings and such. On international games its more of “feel” whats right to pick. So more difficult to get it right.
home united v etoile fc
over 3.5 goals @ 3.40
ill post my reasoning later, gl all
How about value bet of both teams to score at 1.72?
yes, good bet as well
republic of macedonia i love that
respect for thefootytipster
Haha :) . Keep it IAN!
what happens to an acc if one of the bets is and handicap and its void? is the whole acc void?
no, the voided bet gets removed from the acc and the remaining bets continue.
Avai scored in the 87th minute. Yuppie! Way to go Ian! Thanks for the tip!
Yes thank you Ian, i woke up a happy man!
get in there avai! ians bet of the day came through in the end. now roll on holland!
juventino17, if the others on the acc win, then u get paid on them..
Something to consider for Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory match
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/melbourne-victory-hands-ricardinho-debut-against-central-coast-mariners/story-e6frf9if-1225913488618
gone for Melbourne Victory Win
I am going for the handicap bet again today.
Ians write up of andorra v russia is good.
Even better odds of +4 2/1 Andorra. Sticking profits of malta handicap on this game.
I see the same as malta game russia score 3 goals max. Be great of russia only winning by 1 goal half time.
small acc bet. see later.
russia will goal how many ball ?
Correction just realised its 4/5 +4 Andorra now it does not look so appealing might now just put in small acc.
I have decided to stick profits on a sweden/Italy double. evens.
I am sure to get a comment from Ian about Italy but think they have a full strengh team i think will put up a decent performance. Cassano/Pazzini main men.
Head to Head 4 wins Italy 0 Estonia.
SWEDEN – HUNGARY
No predecessor to Swedish coach Erik Hamrén has so far lost their opening competetive game with the national team and this trend is likely to continue today. Can´t see Sweden lose, although I agree with Zolidus that a win at 1.44 (b365) is not much value. Over 2.5 (evens) is looking alright, although I´d wait for Hamrén to announce his starting eleven at around lunchtime before thinking of. Bolton striker Johan Elmander is a doubt while there´s uncertainty whether Källström or Wernbloom will partner Anders Svensson in midfield.
Probable Line-up is 4-2-3-1 (Larsson, Majstorovic, Mellberg, Safari; A. Svensson, Källström; Elmander, Toivonen, Bajrami; Ibrahimovic).
Hamrén got a different approach to former Swedish national coach Lars Lagerbäck. A will to win with a more, what to say, modern type of football. Last season Hamrén was with Rosenborg and lost only one cup game and one league game. Six friendlies so far with Sweden and no losses.
Hungary have a new set-up as well, Sandor Egervari, former U-20 coach, is now with the senior team. They have a better organisation in defence and Sweden have to watch out for any counter-attacks mainly through Fulham player Zoltan Gera and Balazs Dzsudzsak (PSV). Hungary will have six players with height of 190cm or more in their starting eleven which will make it difficult for Sweden to defend on set-pieces.
Personally (not being too biased despite being Swedish) I can´t see Sweden losing this qualifier. It´s too important. Sweden will be playing more attacking from now on under Hamrén (the Swedish players will love that) and even though Egervari will improve Hungary over time, I don´t think they´re ready just yet.
As written, I would prefer to wait for the starting line-up but at the moment Over 2.5 goals looks like it could be some value at almost evens.
Also reckon Sweden have the quality to win this game on the handicap (3-0?) but it could also end 2-1 or 1-1. There is too much uncertainty with new set-ups for both teams so… Beware a bit. I´m keeping my stakes low for this one.
Swedish U-21s are more appealing to me (home vs Israel). They win this and they qualify for next year´s European Championships in Denmark.
Well good luck then!
Just me feeling a bit patriotic (half German, half Swedish!) today I guess, but gone for:
Belgium – GERMANY
SWEDEN – Hungary
SWEDEN U21S – Israel U21s
3.19
SWEDEN -1 – Hungary
SWEDEN U21S -1 – Israel U21s
3.06
SWEDEN -1.5 – Hungary
SWEDEN U21S -1.5 – Israel U21s
5.40
I´ve got weekend off from kids and studies so…
SWEDEN U21 – ISRAEL U21
“High-risk” match in Gothenburg today as Sweden U-21s with a win here will qualify for the European Championship next year in Denmark. With high risk I mean that the politics of Israel isn´t well appreciated here in Sweden and it doesn´t matter what kind of event it is. Is Israel involved, there´s bound to be some problems. Demonstrations, etc between pro- and anti. Don´t think it will have any effect on the match itself.
-
SWE 6 5 1 0 13-3 16
MON 7 4 1 2 9-6 13
ISR 6 3 1 2 11-7 10
-
Two games left for these two teams and one for Montenegro. Israel actually have Monetengro in their last game while Sweden will take on Bulgaria away. Israel can still qualify top of the group but need a win today then.
IF Elfsborg striker Denni Avdic scored the only goal for Sweden in Israel in June. It was a tight game which Israel was a bit unfortunate to have lost (from reports) so expect a similar one here. This is a must win for the visitors while Sweden can afford to slip up a bit. They only need 2 more points so a draw here is/could be enough (which would eliminate Israel too then). I don´t think they´ll settle for one though. Home team will want to qualify today.
Positive note for the home team is that both Rasmus Elm och Martin Olsson are probable starters today. They are both regulary called-up to the senior team but Hamrén wanted them in the U21s this time. Great reinforcements in this already talented team.
Don´t know much about the Israelites to be frank, maybe someone wants to fill in. I don´t think it´ll be an easy game though but at the end Sweden to win at 1.44 could work.
Despite being Hungarian and biased, I all agree with your points Spatgo. The current Swedish squad is better than the one won in Budapest a year ago. Ibra always score at the worst moment against us, and our defence is still not as organised as it should be. We tend to concede early goals which ruin our gameplan, so Hungarys chance for the draw could only be to keep things thight at the beginning. Im sure Egervari will play for the draw, building on quick counter attacks which were quite promising against England. I dont think this will end goalless, in worts case for the Swedes it will end up 1-1.
The 1.44 price for Sweden doesnt worth taking, I would predict a close-fought 2-1 to Sweden tonight.
Alexey, cheers for input. It´s bound to be a close game I think but Sweden have the upper-hand in playing at home plus there seems to be a new spark around the players (especially Ibrahimovic) since Hamrén took over.
STARTING ELEVEN (4-2-3-1): Andreas Iskasson; Mikael Lustig, Olof Mellberg, Daniel Majstorovic, Behrang Safari; Anders Svensson, Pontus Wernbloom; Johan Elmander, Ola Toivonen, Emir Bajrami, Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
Note sure about the midfield really. Wernbloom got the nod ahead of Källström. Kim should be really pissed because he´s been second choice for so long now. Don´t know for how long he´ll put up with it. Good blend of players with experience and youth. Interesting!
Anyway, good luck! Off for some sun!
And Toivonen has been on fire this season with PSV. His performances were surprisingly good, last year I thought he would be just one of the “could have been” prospects of the game.
I will go for over 2,5 goals in Sweden – Hungary game @ 1,90
over 3,5 is tempting but well… i dont know.
Some input about Estonia today! We will miss our best player currently – Lindpere – who declined to represent Estonia this year anymore and wants to concentrate to the MLS season with Red Bulls. The best goalscorer Oper will be out due injury, but that’s not a big blow, cause he’s currently without a club, but Zenjov is playing very good for Karpaty and Saag showed against Faroe Islands that we can rely on him also. And also we have Zahovaiko who hasn’t played much for Leiria, but still he can be very useful. The biggest blow is Piiroja , who is the heart of Estonia with his spirit and experience. He has a slight injury and it’s not sure if he plays.. but still if he do, he’s not 100% fit! I really fancy us to get a draw if Piiroja and Lindere would be 100% fit and playing, but without Lindpere and half a Piiroja it will be harder.. haha hard it will be anyway!
Great previews also Ian!
Ok Thanks for imput on sweden v Hungray and Estonia v Italy.
Makes me confident that double will come through. Sweden/Italy.
Alot of guys think Holland will beat the handicap 4.5 v San Marino.
Any news? Its just to put in my acc. So far got belarus asian+1/1.5 Findland 1x montanegro v wales england v bulgaria both teams to score.
Hunting for Ians tip u21s belarus/Sweden double might have a pop.
big double this afternoon p-irot & BK Kenty @ 9/4 approx
Match: Dundalk – Bray Wanderers
League: Ireland Premier League
Bet: Dundalk AH -0,75
Odds: 2.19 (SBOBET)
Units: 3
Comments:
Dundalk is really out of form, with 3 defeats and 2 draws last 5 games, and with 3-6 goal score. But, they have met top 5 teams in these matches, so I am not too worried about these results. More important is that they got their captain Liam Burns back in last game. He might not be fully recovered, but will anyway strengthen the team.
Bray is lost in the bottom of the table, only winning 2 out of the last 8 games, with a 7-21 goalscore. They have taken just five points from their last 11 league outings and have a current run of 19 games without a clean sheet. Bray’s two goal hero and Ford man of the match in their Cup win over U.C.D.last Friday night Jake Kelly is a big doubt for the trip to Dundalk on Friday night with a shoulder injury. Also doubtful is John Mulroy who had to sit out last weeks win with a back injury.
Great opportunity for Dundalk to get on the winning track again, and they should cover -0,75 handicap, medium stakes!
That was good odds. I´m nowhere near that, anyway, having it along with Czechs U-21s. Apparently Germany U-21s only have 3 players in their squad who have played in the U-21 side before… Not confirmed though.
All previews look great Ian, it’s just Andorra against Russia match in which I’d suggest to use low stakes. Russia got a new coach (Adovocat), who is beloved by russians from his spell @ Zenit and he knows most of the players really, really well. Russians absolutely adore the guy and I am sure he will want to start the compaign with a convincing win over weaker side.
I remember when Russia had a nervous 0-1 against Andorra in the previous encounter, but I would probably say it happened due to a red card to Russian’s superstar Andrey Arshavin. For some reason, russians just love to get red cards in extremely important matches (e.g. against Slovenia).
All after all, handicap on Andorra is really good bet, but personally I would skip it just for this particular match.
Although the gap between the weaker and better sides in international football has narrowed, a bet I like to do for international games is to pick teams that should win well to zero. For instance Netherlands to win 4-0, 5-0, 6-0, Spain to win 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 and Portugal to win 1-0, 2-0, 3-0. Perm 3x3x3 27 bets@ $1. Sure it only takes one goal from any of the weaker teams to bust it but has been more profitable than not in the past because most the correct scorelines odds average out at about 6/1, so if u get 3 correct scores u are looking at $343 back for a $27 bet. Just like it as its a fun bet for long odds-on games.
Having a winning streak since last sunday! And making nice amounts of profit on your tips Ian! Thank you very much!
Tonight it’s only the polish match for me! Good luck on the others with the international football!
Im going today Norway, Scotland, Germany,-1Italy combo
GL
Does anyone know where i can watch the Singapore League game live??
Ive looked around and cant seems to find any :s
Home Utd vs Etoile – the over 2.5 looks awesome @1.85, but I thinks it worth going for over 3.5@3.25 as both these teams are 2 of 3 teams in contention for the league title, and if it comes to goal difference then both these teams have work to do to catch up to Tampines Rovers who have a goal difference of 14 extra then Etoile, and 20 extra then Home Utd.
Also, the only match between these two @ Home Utd ended 3-3.
Recommendations:
Safe value bet: Over 2.5@1.85
Extra value bet: Over 3.5@3.25
For the match against Belarus France will miss:
Jeremy Toulalan, Franck Ribery and Patrice Evra ( suspended or one, three and five matches respectively by the national federation for the the training boycott in South Africa ).
Gourcuff (suspended for two matches after he was sent off in France’s 2-1 defeat by South Africa at the World Cup. Will be available for next match against Bosnia ).
Samir Nasri, ( out for a month following knee surgery ).
Hatem Ben Arfa was not selected after going on strike at Marseille to force through his move to Newcastle United.
Despite all I still see France as potential winnera against a tough Belarus, but not at @1.38 ! That’s far too short considering the squad and that France’s last victory goes back to 26/5 ( 2-1 vs Costarica ).
Where’s Marz at?? Really tempted by this over3.5 bet, but would have liked to have seen his reasoning first.
me too mate! he must be busy though…
Sorry im late guys, basically i reckon this fixture will become one of the “classics”, much like home v saff, home v tampines, or saff v gombak. It is a televised game and is being promoted very heavily so both teams will want to put on a good show for a league that badly needs a good advert. Both teams are pretty much at full strength, mid season signings Jun Woo Keun and Chun Jae Woon in midfield have been INSANELY good for home united, these 2 south koreans have brought alot of attack to their team. Frederick Mendy and captain Matthias Verschave return for Etoile and this will bring very strong attacking wing play. Basically this is their first game back from the break, and i have a strong feeling they will put on a spectacle today. The last time these 2 teams played it was a 1-0 victory to Etoile so Home will want to exact revenge on these French bastards, everybody in Singapore ( besides their fans ) hate their guts. If this game could end in a draw that would be beneficial for each team, i might back the unders because they would have to be more cautious, but they must fight to be no.1 contender for the title here.
A few bets i like, take your pick.
Over 3.5 goals @ 3.40
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.90
Both sides to score @ 1.72
Over 1.5 second half goals @ 2.00 <– good bet imho
Home United goals over 1.5 @ 2.00
I hope to hell it goes overs, im backing the over 3.5 and 4.5 .
The stats dont point to an overs game but u just get that feeling you know? Ian is feeling it as well so that could be something !! :D
fingers crossed
thanks mate!:)
ok these dickheads need to start scoring zzzzzzz
1-0, dont take this shit etoile!!! time to respond !!!
unlucky, mendy hits the bar twice and the post once, goal line clearance from home united…
Don’t know why it didn’t occur to me to ask Ian why he thinks it’ll be over 3.5 considering he’s got scoreline down as 2-2. I’d appreciate your thought’s on the over 3.5 mate?
Belarus under 21/Belarus +1/1.5 asian/Holland +4/Iceland 1x/ luxumborg over 2/
4fold 5 bets= 25 pound possible profit 325. Good solid bets. I think i will come close min 4/5
Hey Ian,
I waited a few days to play after losing some bets, after mattersburg – salzburg i was in a downswing.. got raped from all different sides… but today im back again, i found some interesting games, i would appreciate it if you take a look at it, and if possible recommend some, or atleast let me know which u dont like.
20:00 (1) Sparta rotterdam -1 Fortuna Sittard @ 1.60
20:45 (1) N-ireland u21 San Marino u21 (over 3,5) @ 1,55
20:45 (2) Belgium Germany @ 1.50
20:45 (2) Liechtenstein Spain -2 @ 1.33
20:45 (2) San Marino Netherlands -3 @ 1.45
21:00 (1) Shelbourne -1 Salthill Devon @ 1.50
And im really not sure about sweden u21, can decide weither to play them or not…
After a glorious day yesterday, ended with the 2 brazilian matches of the night, done my choices for today:
Lithuania vs Scotland lay over 3.5 @5.5 1 point liability
Faroer Islands vs Serbia lay Serbia -3 @3.2 1 point liability
a little stake ( 2/10 of point ) on this accumulator:
Slovakia, Sweden, Romania, Italy, Slovenia, Greece and Sparta to win @11.95
then the same accumulator laying all the opponents at evens, 1 point
and finally a micro stake ( 1/25 of point..) on Montenegro, Lithuania, Waterford, Sporting Fingal and Iceland to draw @376.75
Good luck all !
whats the difference between asian handicap and handicap result:S?
Asian Handicap is a 2 way bet ; there’s no room for a draw.
The handicap result is a normal 3 way bet, with the tie available.
Suppose you bet on holland (-1) and holland win by a single goal, your bet will lose because it’s considered like a draw, unless it is asian, where you will win the bet.
actually if its -1 on the Asian u get stake refunded if the team wins by a single goal,
slight change of plan
staked £500 double republic of ireland @ bk kenty @ 2.58/1
£250 double p-irot & bk kenty double @ 2.33/1 – good luck all
mkw, you can find under 2.5 goals on kenty at evens. Although FKL sacked their coach in midweek (most players seemed to hate him) so they might just pull something off today! I´ve taken the Kenty win as well as under 2.5.
Good luck!
I mean they might get a boost out of the sacking, otherwise Kenty should win and could be great value.
ah cheers spatgo i might have been a bit more cautious if i would have known linkoping had sacked manager – as you say it can give some teams a boost – even so over evens for a kenty win sounds really good value for me – cheers for the info my friend
WALES TO BEAT MONTENEGRO 3/1
Get on it lads , Wales will take a lot stronger side to Montenegro today after they lost there in a friendly 2 -1 around a year ago. The Welsh camp is in a positive upbeat mood and with Bellamy and Bale on excellent form I fancy wales alot today more than I ever have in a long time, I honestly think it is starting to come together for Wales.
Obviously its a risk away to any tough eastern european side but at the odds they are giving its definately worth a punt on the Welsh Lads. Especially as Montenegros playmaker Steven Jovetic is missing and in the last game everything went through him and that will be a big miss for the home side.
Good Luck Lads on your Bets
Cymru am Byth
Btw on betclic wales are a massive 4.75 for an away win
god jay you are not still harping on about your beloved wales winning this game :- i reckon home win !! sorry bud but good luck to you all the same
yeah mate still on about them lol cheers
well if bellamy can do to montenegro what he did to us last week then you have a chance fella !! :-
1 Andorra v Russia (Backing Russia @ 1.03)
2 San Marino v Netherlands (Backing Netherlands @ 1.01)
3 Liechtenstein v Spain (Backing Spain @ 1.02)
4 Belgium v Germany (Backing Germany OR The Draw @ 1.16)
5 England v Bulgaria (Backing England @ 1.29)
6 France v Belarus (Backing France @ 1.35)
7 Portugal v Cyprus (Backing Portugal @ 1.19)
8 Armenia v Rep of Ireland (Backing Rep of Ireland OR The Draw @ 1.16)
3/1
using betfair £50 refund offer if 1 selection lets you down!
will also be using a technique called partial laying for every individual selection seeing as the odds are so low!!!
:-D
im all good…layed france for £50….so that has come in! if portugal go on to win ill get £50 back from betfair!
:-D :-D
Hi, mates… I tell you, the game Home United y vs Etoile has finished. Home United won 1-0… Why you can bet this game?…
Mi recomendations
Bosnia OVER 2 1/2
Drogheda OVER 2 1/2
Rumania
England
Best of luck to all
Turkey
hi everyone just found this site. im like you guys trying to beat the bookies. its hard thing to do an sometimes we are lucky. is this site like every1 gives the taughts on games and ian has the inside on the teams. sounds good to me im not mad in to internationals you dont now yous going to be playing an how they will play. we need paul the octopus to get some bankers. well im here to learn from ian and the rest of you guys.. i just do small accums and a few other bets to make the games more fun.
so what do i do pick games whats up on here or some of my own give the reasons why . or just ask for help sorry lol
the lad from roma plays for montenegro. could be wrong wales are not aside i fancy away , maybe away win or draw. i say that be at 7/4. any1 got info on any teams in the dutch second division. irish league dose my head in to many upsets in that league
sorry do i have to set up a account here
Strange. Iceland is now at bestons at 3.65 for home victory, on monday it was 4.40 and start of the day it was 3.85, think it was 4.0 yesterday. So the odds is changing by the minutes.
SWEDEN/ITALY DOUBLE BRING THE BACON HOME.
cummo do u also live bet.. if so i can give you some info about 2nd dutch devision
I hate Poland I Liga and Ekstraklasa… all the times I put some money on any match I loose money… I don’t know why, but I followed 3-4 Ian’s predictions of Polish Leagues and all the times I lost money.
Mate, I’ll not put money anymore and you’ll win thousands of euros hahahah. Previews are great but I don’t know what happens here.
Keep the good work :D
The problem with all the Polish football is atrocious inconsistency and lack of effectiveness, despite the line ups might look strong on paper – you just can’t predict their performance. It is more visible especially in the lower leagues. Also, the situation within the clubs has undergone some dramatic changes when compared to last season. There are clubs in which, for instance, 15 players left and 15 were signed, hence the above mentioned inconsistency etc.
Example – in today’s featured game Piast Gliwice were undoubtedly a better side, like it’s written in today’s preview. It was also visible in ball posession, Piast’s goal opportunities etc. However, due to their terrible ineffectiveness, they didn’t manage to score, which annoyed me a bit because they should and could have won that match.
Sadly, this league sometimes turns out to be a lotery contradicting all the logical reasoning – I’m Polish, so I could say I witness it with my own eyes here!
Tomorrow there are 9 games in Polish 1 Liga, hope you’ll have more luck! :)
Sweden 3 injuries in the game and have no more subs to put in. New goalie, midfielder and attacker.
40 min left
oh my god san marino just nearly scored a GREAT goal!
not looking good on the handicap at the moment. doesnt look like holland will score 5+ :( hope it changes
Who nearly scored for San Marino? Andy Selva?
I fancy Sheff Wed away against Brentford 2moro @ 5/4! oh yes!
It’s been a very good day for me because I won both of my singles on Croatia and Shamrock Rovers. Once again, thanks for the tips, Ian!
Terrible day for me, Slovenia totally crushed me, how on earth could Northern Ireland come away with a win.
And why did I not put away win for Belarus in-live game, that was a late goal.
Ians warning was right regarding betting on interational games.