Today’s featured game is the Serie A game between giants Sao Paulo and Flamengo. I’ve loved betting against Sao Paulo this season as they’ve really struggled but they’re back in the driving seat now whereas visitors Flamengo are struggling to score goals so the hosts have a good chance tonight.
Sao Paulo are interestingly still mid-table despite a barren run but can only extend their thanks to their ever-reliable defence for that. Star striker Dagoberto went missing in recent times and was thus dropped from the side, which then meant Sao Paulo didn’t score goals. Playmaker Hernanes joined Lazio and it’s taken them some to time to adjust to his departure. However, Sao Paulo are mounting their atypical late run with four games without defeat. They’ve claimed an impressive draw at league leaders Fluminense along the way, albeit via a little fortune, and have won their last two games consecutively since then. Ironically, they’re abandoning their defensive nature in the search for goals and it’s yielding success for the giants with eight points taken from a possible twelve of late. They’ve scored seven goals along the way and have generally looked a very solid unit. Dagoberto may not be back to his best but he’s on his way and the side are clearly inspired by it with the likes of Fernandao getting on the scoresheet to bolster Sao Paulo’s cause. I’d argue that this side isn’t the best that they’ve had in years but they’re still one of the better sides in Brazil overall and their form is finally starting to show it. With momentum behind them and potency rife in the Sao Paulo camp, I fancy them to do a lot of damage tonight.
Visitors Flamengo are no mugs in defence but a complete lack of goalscoring generally renders them somewhat useless. Petkovic is a good player to have in the side but age is not on his side. Diogo is reportedly injured so the reliance lies with new signing Deivid and although he has the talent to fulfill the role, it’s still a big ask for him to do it tonight against in-form Sao Paulo. Flamengo are actually edging closer and closer to the unthinkable relegation places following just one win in their last ten games. They’ve only scored once in their last five consecutive games, which just isn’t good enough. Ok, they’ve only conceded four goals along the way during that run of five games but that’s been enough to see them lose three times because they’re not scoring. Morale is low and it’s very easy to understand why too. They’ve scored a meager five goals on the road this season in nine games, which is a record so bad that only Vitoria can match their poor goalscoring tally and they’re always poor away from home! As a result, Flamengo have lost six out of nine on the road and unless they pick things up soon, they’re going to be dragged into a relegation battle that I don’t think they’re good enough to get out of.
Basically, we have an in-form and potent Sao Paulo facing a demoralised and impotent Flamengo side in Sao Paulo. Logic says that Sao Paulo should have a lot of fun here and I’m inclined to agree with that. I appreciate Sao Paulo haven’t had a great season but 4/5 on a home win in this game is far too generous. Sao Paulo are scoring for fun and I seriously doubt Flamengo being able to even register a goal here. This game has a home win written all over it at rather good odds too!
Verdict: Sao Paulo to win at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Gremio vs Atletico Goianiense – both sides to score at 4/5.
I like this bet a lot, really. Gremio are generally an unders side due to stout defending and ineffectual attacking butt heir new brand of attacking football leaves them a potent threat with Gremio having scored for six successive games. They’ve gathered some momentum following three games unbeaten and even won their last home game. They claimed an impressive 2-2 draw at Botafogo last match and generally are showing a resilience that they’ve rarely had all season long and boy have they missed it! I still don’t rate their attack with only Jonas able to find the net currently but their momentum gives me confidence in their attack and they do average scoring over a goal per home game so far this season so they should be able to score tonight.
The big question is whether minnows Atletico Goianiense score or not. You could be forgiven for thinking that they wouldn’t be a mere glance at the Serie A table but that’s not really the case here. They’re in the relegation zone due to inexperience in the division and not taking their chances but neither seem to be affecting them currnetly. They’ve scored in five consecutive games now, games like their 3-0 win at Palmeiras, their 2-2 draw at home to Avai, and even a thumping 4-1 win at home to Vitoria last match. They’ve notched up eleven goals in five games now as the fear of relegation has hit them and they’re now playing as if released from a cage with goals galore and good results as an outcome. Only Sao Paulo have beaten them in their last five games so they won’t be daunted by a trip to Porto-Alegrense. Atletico are very much determined to beat the drop, based on the above evidence, so I think they have to go all out here to try and get some points and they’re more than capable of doing so in their current form.
I don’t know what’s going to happen as a result here. Quality-wise, Gremio should win this game every day of the week but the way both sides are playing at the moment leaves this game looking like a massive “over 2.5 goals” game and one where both sides score. I won’t be backing either side in the 1X2 market – no value there for me – so I’d recommend taking both sides to score, sitting back, and enjoying the ride here.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Fluminense
Recommended bets:
Fluminense and Sao Paulo at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Copa Recopa Sudamericana:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Liga de Quito (7) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense vs Ceara (8) over 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro vs Internacional (6) 1-1
Gremio vs Atletico Goianiense (6) both sides to score
Goias vs Guarani (6) 1-1
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo (7) over 2.5 goals
Vitoria vs Palmeiras (6) 2-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians (7) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
KooTeePee Kotka vs Viikingit Helsinki (4) draw no bet
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Alta vs Nybergsund (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Etoile (6) 2-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!
What is going on with my bettings? I had Guarani Asuncion home win against Union San Felipe in an fourfold accy with Atlético Huila and 2 games tomorrow and Union San Felipe equlize on 93 min with the last kick of the game, they received an stupid penalty on the last second.
This is now been my story for weeks, I am always loosing games like this, is so frusturating :-(
I feel for you mate, I’m also having some bad luck… International break is not the best time to be betting though, all to unpredictable. Don’t worry your luck will turn.
Even if you didn’t bet on it i’m guessing you didn’t really like the last minute goal the danes pulled off either. Im swedish so i’m always looking for denmark to drop points :p Tough luck. I’ve been looking at your tips for a while and you really know a lot, so keep it up. Cheers.
Really
should use betfair and lay off bets, so much better
Dagur you are not alone. I had 7 folds yesterday with IFM and a few leagues combined. I was let down. However, thanks to your prediction on the Denmark win. What teams do you favour today? Let me know… still waiting on your Iceland predictions. Thanks …
These last minutes goals are killing me :-) and so strange when they all come against you again and again and then your luck changes.
Brian, i am liking the spanish cup today and doing some double changes, there are lot og hight odds games which gives good double change odds.
I like an fivefold with:
Qviding: 1
Real Vallodolid: 1
Real Betis: X2
Royo Valecono X2
Tampine Rovers X2
Real Bestis is on form and they can win Granada (newly promoted), Royo Valecono has a 7-1-0 record against Córdoba. So a straight wins for these two teams and Real Valladolid is also a bet that could come through.
I think you are safe with Vikingit X2 and Alta 1X could compine that with some of the games above or just take a change on Vikingit away win, Alta home win and Tampine Rovers home win. That ticked could work out.
So I see a lot of safe double change bets with good odds, you could also do DNB on games like vikingit, Tampine Rovers, Royo Valecono, Real Betis, Alta, I think these teams are not going to loose but they might draw. Only 2 teams that I am confident will win today are Qviding in the swedis 1 div and Real Vallodid.
dagur your english is outstanding for an icelandic gentleman – we say take a chance my friend instead of take a change ! (i notice you always say that ! lol :-) – a bit like ABBA take a chance ! yes ? – sorry mate & like me i hope your luck changes quick :-)
Dagur, thanks alot for your brilliant predictions. What do you think of LDU match will they win against Estudiantes? BTW you can also post some predictions on my mail for future matches: ssenyondobrian1@gmail.com . I shall be grateful. otherwise we here respect your predictions on the Iceland league. thanks.
Mkw, point taken :-) people learn by practice so I should have “chance” next time, don’t know why I have said change, which has a totally different meaning then what I was trying to say. Funny :-)
Brian, I am not a fan of predicting away win in the Copa Sudamericana though the away team looks better on paper or statisticly. Estudiantes has a very good home record and LDU not so, draw alot away so I would think Estudiantes will win or make a draw based on that but I don’t know the teams that well so I would at least wait for Ian if I does any preview. I will skip this game at this point.
Hi, what’s up?…. what do you think about : granada Vs Betis?
I live Betis alot, they’re on a roll.
Granada is recently promoted from a lower tier of the segunda and I wouldn’t doubt they’ll be heading back down next season.
I also like the over here.
Yeah betis is doing great….they made me win last week too… but they are not at home… anyway… going to bet on them and hope, lol
i sort of fancy vikingit @ 5/4 but certainly not convinced into a big bet – i’m sceptical after a bad couple of days !
I like the look of the recommended Brazilian double and will most likely have a dabble with that later.
For now though I’m on shimizu -0.25 for a bit of interest. I wanted to take them on the outright but they drifted from 4/5 to 11/10 in the build up so I played it a little safer with the handicap bet.
Anyone else on any of the Japanese games?
im the same mate,save your bet for the brazilian double though,looks the safest option today even though its a long wait till kick off,good luck
tampines-etoile 1-2 tampines missed penalty in min 92 damn…..noobs….:)))
I don’t know what to say, last night I lost with a 93 min penalty and now I though my luck had turn but no they miss, what the hell :-(
did you both back a 2-2 draw ?
I had 1X on this game.
i’ve gone £350 vikingit & fluminense double which would yield a return of £1228 with my 10% ladbrokes odds on card bonus – woooo what do points make….failed bets generally ! good luck all
I backed bloody Tampines Double chance with 5 mins to go @ 4! Bloody fools… Such an important penalty for Tampines as well.
I also lost on the last minute penalty last night, and have had a few bad days now. Today i was backing a draw in tampine rovers, and they MISS a penalty in overtime…how is this possible?:)
absurd, and the worse is that now I have much less confidence in my bettings, this unluck screws your mind.
But I rekon that now I must have so many future luck in games, you must get you unluck back in luck, everythings in the world looks for balance so unluck must mean luck at one point.
So come on luck come back to me, I need you now more then ever :-)
Not sure how important these guys are as I’m no expert on Brazilian football, but apparently Sao Paulo will be missing all these guys tonight.
Ricardo Oliveira (with tendinitis in his left knee), Fernandinho (muscle injury in his right knee), Dagoberto and Casimir (suspended the third yellow), and Lucas Gaucho (Brazilian national team at under-19)
NORWAY: Adeccoligaen
18:00 Alta - Nybergsund
UNDER 3.5
Make up for your earlier losses for the day.
Head to head there have not been more than three goals scored in 6 games.
Head to head you should be save with under 3.5, I though try to avoid betting under in goals. In this division we have seen lots of goals scored and I want to put out that 53% of this years Nybergsund games have gone over 3.5 and 37% af Alta games (see, http://www.soccervista.com/Norway-Adeccoligaen-2010-818944.html). So that statistic is alarming to me though head to head tells another story.
This is a tricky game and I think it will end in a draw and it could be a low scoring draw. Alta is a good home team and is on a quite good form at the moment, I am thinking of sticking 1X on this game though I am fear of win from the visitors, after the shock of Etoile win earlier today.
Bob, though an odds of 1.62 for under 3.5 goals is quite appealing. I will do one accy like this:
Vikingit: 2 (Draw no bet)
Alta vs. Nybergsund: Under 3.5 goals
Real Valodolid: 1
Real Betis: 2
Odds: 8.03
Have a look at the Qviding game today, just keep in mind it´s a derby.
Yes.
I have this ticked
Qviding: 1
Real Vallodolid: 1
Fluminese: 1
Real Betis: X2
Royo Valecono X2
oh boy, regarding the Alta – Nybergsunds game, I was reading this about the game (translated by Google).
“This is a rematch from last teams met in Finnmark Hall. NFF decided that the teams had to meet again because of a significant judgments wrong. The bad match ended 3-3 in general”.
Did not see this info till it was to late (http://live.budstikka.no/fotball/live/).
So last time these team played in this statium it ended 3 – 3 but was called off, now we already have 0 – 1, so this could end in goalfest.
Lets see.
Thanks Bob for the 3.5 goals tip :-)
It came through and had very good odds of 1.62
Now I just need win from Valodolid and Betis :-)
LETS HOPE LUCK CHANCES 2NITE.
Gone for a brazil treble. FLUMINESE/SAO PAULO/GUARANI X2/ 3/1
Ok guys potentially a big opportunity to cash in during the early hours and turn our luck around! Some of you may remember last week I shared a tip I found where this guy seemed bloody confident that the Alcorcon v Celta Vigo game would go over 3.5, sure enough the game ended 2-2.
This guy with the ‘inside info’ is back and he’s released one very last free pick… Now this guy has got the last two right, but he could have just been lucky, so take the pick with a pinch of salt and please be cautious.
He has tipped:
Chicago v Toronto Over 3.5 @ 4
Wanted to share this with you guys since I know a few others made a couple of quid of the last one.. Good luck guys, I’m still trying to work out my stakes for this one.
That is a very bold bet, Toronto has not scored away in 3 games in a row, has not scored in 4 out of 5 away games. Chicago is not score many goals either. But last two games between these team has gone over 3.5 and last game in Chicago ended 2 – 2, that could happen today, this guy is probably picking over 3.5 goals based on that game.
Why not take this bet for fun :-)
Yea it’s bold dude I agree.. the stats for the other two games he picked both pointed to under 3.5 goals and somehow ended 2-2..
Here’s the link to the site.. (http://inside-soccer.blogabet.com/)
See what you think, I do find it all a little dodgy and will be keeping stakes reasonable.
Both of his selections have been bold. Alcorcon scored in the 90th as well last time around so don´t know how lucky he was or how much he knew. I made a few quid on the Celta game so I might as well put what I won there on this one.
Either he speaks the truth or he´s just tried to get people “hooked” on his previous two bets and making them lose a lot of money this time around. That´s how it works no?
Anyway, putting 99.9% of what I won on the Alcorcon – Celta game on Over 3.5 in this game, so either way I´ve made profit. ha ha.
Cheers Ryan!
Yeah, I took a look at the website the last time you said about him and it does look a bit dodgey but he has got the last two predictions right. I don’t know how the information that he obtains relates to the outcome though because the matches aren’t fixed, so my guess is that he can get hold of very key and important statistics (because I think he’s said before that he works for a bookmaker) and then just relies on luck because we all know that anything can happen in football. I’m sure that bookmakers probably have some sort of complicated system that can predict the outcome of football matches based on a whole variety of factors. However, that’s only an assumption and they might have but that’s the only way I can imagine that he obtains that kind of information because how could you be so confident on such an outcome? After all, he’s said that it’s his last free tip so if he gets it wrong then not many people will take much notice of him so he HAS to get it right if he wants people to start paying him. I was going to bet on Chicago with a draw as no bet but I might take a chance on this actually. It’ll be interesting to see the outcome.
Exactly what I was thinking Charlie, this guy is screwed if he gets this wrong because everyone’s gna think he’s a right twat and won’t pay for any of his picks… He charges £100 a pick as well normally so he has to have a 100% record on free tips to get away with charging that much surely!
Nothings guaranteed in football as we all know, but screw it I’m gna go for it I think might as well! Probs gna do what you’re doing Spatgo and put a bit of the money from the Celta game on this..
Might also put a bit on Ian’s accumulator + over 2.5:
Fluminese
Chicago over2.5
Sao Paulo
@ 5.49
ryan, i remember last time u posted celta tip and no one really took notice. this time i think im gonna bet big on over 2.5 goals. at least that way if the tipper has just been lucky, i will still have a “normal” chance of winning…
its really strange how his confidence is 10/10.. im liking it!
for now tho im doing spanish games..last time out these spanish cup games produced a ton of goals, i think thats the way to go today…
Haha yea I’m thinking if hitting the over 2.5 as well, maybe a little safer. I reckon we could combine it with Fluminese to get the same odds as the over 3.5, could be a nice bet.
I’m looking in to the Copa del Rey now.. A few nice prices, I’ll post later with some picks. At the moment the 2.1 on offer for over 2.5 in the valladolid game seems generous.
Just a sort notice…
This blog in suspended from blogabet as the guy he haven’t published loosing picks which he had last week. As I know (I have my inside information too :) ) he has lost 4 picks in the row…
So be careful
Wait a minute why are Fluminese not playing at their home ground ‘The Maracana’?
its 2.25 on paddy
Even better! I like the overs in this one quite a lot actually.. Huesca aren’t exactly prolific goalscorers and tend to scrape games 1-0, however when they’re away from home they’re far more vulnerable. A confident Valladolid should win this one comfortably 3-0 or 2-1 for me.
Oh and also apparently Valladolid are only charging 2 Euros entrance tonight, should encourage a lot of the locals to come down and watch what we hope will be a game with a lot of goals.
Other games I like are:
Real Betis @ 2
Over 2.5 in Real Betis match @ 2.1
Elche @ 2.1
Over 2.5 in Elche match @ 2.07
Over 2.5 in Rayo Vallecano match @ 2.07
I have two accys including spanish cup games
One has
Real Vallodolid 1
Real Batis 2
Alta under 3.5 goals (has come through)
Viikingit 2 (DNB) (has come through)
The other
Real Vallodolid 1
Real Batis X2
Royo Vallecano X2
Fluminese 1
Qviding 1
I think these are very strong tickets and they are looking very good at them moment.
For my evening ticked I am thinking about
The Strongest 1
Blooming 1
Fluminese 1
Sao Paulo 1
You could be in for a goodd night Dagur mate! Like the look of those..
Looks good at the moment, finger crossed :-)
It changes quick, Granada is not an easy team to win at home is confirmed.
estud really should win tonight at home i would’ve thought, unless of course its not a competition they’re interested in?
My dangerous Copa Del Rey accumulator:
Real Betis
Valladolid Over 2.5
Vallecano Over2.5
Elche Over2.5
@ 17
I’m going to take ht/ft Murcia @ 5 as well, think they could nick an early goal and hold on to this one.
What do you guys think about ht/ft Fluminense at 13/10? Good value?
I think Fluminese is going to win but we see a lot of half time draws in the brazilian league, out of last 5 games Fluminese has had draw in halftime 3 times. So it would not surprise my to see half time draw and then full time win for Fluminese.
I am just going for Fluminese home win but if you like the chance I think this game could have a draw in half time but it is a risky bet.
Vallodolid to score 2nd goal @ evens IN PLAY
They’re at home playing against 10 men Huesca now and apparently have had the better of their opponents throughout the game.
SPAIN: Copa del Rey
Cordoba - Vallecano
Vallecano
Vallenco has never lost to Coroba head to head
http://www.soccerway.com/teams/comparison/?team_ids=2054&team_ids=2050
vikingit won so just fluminense in the minefield that is brazilan football for a £890 profit !!
I need them too for a smaller accumulator. Good Luck we need it after recent results
god damn. where were the tips for the important match of germany u17 v south africa u17 score is – 9-1 at half time!
and 10-1 FT. Guess they used them all up in the first half!
What is with Copa del Rey and red cards :-) ??
Samba Spanish! Hahaha really tempted to go BIG on Rayo Vallecano now considering they’re playing 10 men and came from behind to beat Cordoba on the weekend!
It is very tempted with odds of 2.5 but you never know if Vallecano will go man down also. Like in Granada vs Real Betis, why on earth Real Betis had to go man down also when they were in so good position to finish off the game.
Lucky I did not go in-play, now i have my finger crossed for easy Fluminese win :-)
Wait a minute why are Fluminese not playing at their home ground ‘The Maracana’?
right. ive gone for FLUMINESE and GREMIO double, large stake. with a small stake on both games over 2.5 goals.
good feeling guys! good luck
just read ryans post :(
Oh shit! Don’t worry mate I still think they’ll pull it off… I just read about the stadium and the fact they’re missing a couple of players.
Fluminese has finished off the game, great pick Ian with the over 2.5 goals. And I finally got an accy :-)
Real Vallodolid 1
Real Batis X2
Royo Vallecano X2
Fluminese 1
Qviding 1
I decided to abandon my bankroll of £50 because I guess starting it during the international break wasn’t the best idea as there’s hardly been anything to bet on but I managed to breakeven after about a week. However, I withdrew £49 from my account and gave myself a little challenge of trying to work my way up from £1. ;)
I started off my putting the £1 on Scotland just before they went 1-0 down to Liechtenstein at odds of 1/4 and I ended up getting £1.25 back on that one which was more than lucky in the end. I then stuck the £1.25 on the international friendly between Argentina and Spain at half time for there to be over 4.5 goals in the goal at odds of 6/5. That bet somehow came off with two last goals and I got £2.75 back. That amount was then placed on a treble earlier of Valladolid, Real Betis Or Draw & Rayo Vallecano Or Draw and that came off after getting even more lucky with each opponent in that combo losing a player to a red card, so I got £7.19 back from that. I’ve now stuck all that on another trio of Fluminense, Chicago Or Draw & Santos Or Draw and I’ll get £15.56 back if that comes off and Fluminense are already winning 2-0 against Ceara so it’s looking good. I know that my luck will run out eventually so I might have to stop soon but it depends. I’m quite enjoying it. :)
I might also put some money seperately on the Chicago & Toronto game going over 3.5 goals if the odds are right. It won’t be a lot though but like everyone else, I’m curious to see if it’ll come off and it’s got to be worth a few quid to find out.
Nice.
Good that someone has some luck over here :-)
I also think Mkw is really happy guy at the moment with his Viikingit/Fluminese double.
yes you got it dagur i am very happy this morning !! – i went to bed happy with fluminense 3-0 up at half time
Same mate! I went to bed at half time as well. It’s good when a team gets a good lead early on in the match because it’s pretty safe then and you don’t have to worry. :)
I’ve chosen to leave the Chicago game because something smells fishy in my opinion. It could be a scam to get people to lose their money (like Spatgo already said) or that I just don’t think it’ll actually come off and he might get it wrong. It just seems to me as though if there was one game that there is likely to be under 3.5 goals then it would be that one because I can’t see where at least four goals are going to come from. For those who have bet on it, I hope that I’m wrong so that you win a nice amount of money but I just don’t think it’ll happen so I’m not going to touch it myself, plus I already have a bet on the fixture as well. Good luck though everyone! I’ll have my fingers crossed for those that’ve taken it! :)
Might be a wise choice mate! I’ll watch a bit in-play and if the odds go over 6 then I’ll take it with small stakes.. Hope the good luck continues for you mate.
Good choice !
As I wrote above his blog is suspended cause he didn’t publish loosing picks. Just to give an idea… Last week he sold – gave 4 picks Velez Vs Banfield over 3,5 (0-1) Galway Vs St Pat over 3,5 (1-1) Gimnasia Vs Lanus over 3,5 (0-2) and San Martin SJ Vs Club Ferro AW (3-1) !!!
The guy just seems to have no idea… Regarding Celta match, you cannot have “inside information” for over 3,5 goals and the last goal came at 94 minute…
Any way, as Charlie, fingers crossed for tonight’s bold :)
Thanks for the info Panos! The guy must just be bloody lucky always getting his free tips right.. His luck will probably end tonight then I guess.. Those guys are always too good to be true. Hopefully he can be right one more time for us… Panos how did you find out about these picks that he sold that were lost?
Guess what??? I am one (I hope from the few) who bought picks from him. I bought 2 (Velez, Gimnasia) and he gave me for free :) two. I was lucky and I didn’t touch the Galway and San Martin…
I have kept in my inbox his emails to remind me how idiot I can be :)
Shit dude sorry to hear that! What a cheeky mofo.
just got nice double of gremio and fluminese. shame gremio MISSED their penalty :( as i had over 2.5 for both games as a side bet.
taken toronto game to be over 2.5 for medium stake.
good luck :)