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Today’s secondary featured game is the Liga Sagres games between Sporting Braga and Vitoria Guimaraes.
Braga are a phenomenal force to be reckoned with on their own turf. I don’t think I’m exaggerating by stating that Braga can beat any side in Portugal at the AXA Stadion. However, this is a very difficult game for them, in my view, which possibly wouldn’t have been the case in the past.
Braga have some good players and love to stretch opponents with their pacey wide men. They’re far from a prolific side but they’re ruthlessly efficient and are very tight at the back by Portuguese standards. They’re not a side to bet against very often but they’re not a side to handicap, either.
Now, Vitoria Guimaraes aren’t as good as Braga; quite far from it, in fact. However, they’ve gone through a phase lately where they’ve simply been impossible to break through. They’ve conceded in just one of their last four games in all competitions and considering that the one goal shipped came on a mammoth journey to The Azores where they lost 1-0 against Santa Clara, I think it’s fair that we should be taking Vitoria seriously here.
I thought it was too good to be true at first so I tuned in to watch them entertain Benfica earlier this week. Benfica are easily the best side in Portugal this season with a whole host of attacking options and the fact that they’ve bagged for fifty-four consecutive games prior to that game only backs up my point. However, try as they might, they couldn’t break through Vitoria. Nolito had a half-chance and there was the odd penalty claim but Benfica did nothing to them, which was staggering; I’ve never seen any side withstand Benfica like that. Benfica were below-par but still – a crazy result.
Vitoria have so much confidence from this run and the side are really playing for one another now. They’re defending unlike any other Portuguese side (well, perhaps barring Beira-Mar!) and are proving a force to be reckoned with. They’re not an attacking threat because they lack the players to be one but they’re still a nightmare side to face so I think they’ll give Braga a tough game here.
I’d not touch the 1×2 market in this game although you do have to expect Braga to edge it. Instead, I’m rolling with under 2.5 goals as it’s generously priced at 5/6 and Vitoria look as solid as a brick wall right now.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Injury & suspension list, probable line-ups, players info and full team stats can be found at LeagueSpy.com.
Other great tipsters can be found at www.betadvisor.com!
Monday’s Picks
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendly:
Azerbaijan vs India (8) 2-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague vs Teplice (5) 1-2
Finnish League Cup:
Haka Valkeakoski vs IFK Mariehamn (7) 2-1
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Haifa (7) 1-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
GKS Belchatow vs Gornik Zabrze (6) 1-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes (5) 1-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Delemont vs Winterthur (5)
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard
Venue: GN Bouw Stadion, Dordrecht
Kick-Off: 19:00 GMT
FC Dordrecht could have achieved much more in the Dutch Jupiler League, if they weren’t so poor travellers. Their home record is one of the best in the league and as a matter of fact only leaders Zwolle managed to escape from GN Bouw Stadion with a win. Besides that defeat, the Sheep Heads have recorded 8 wins and 3 draws. It’s the other way around on the road though, as they have won just one of their 10 away games. Friday’s win over Almere put an end to a three-game winless run and today they play a second consecutive game at home, aiming to avenge the
2-0 defeat at Sittard in late November. Interim coach Virgil Breetveld seems to be coping well with the pressure ever since he was called to replace Theo Bos, who was diagnosed with cancer earlier this year. Striker Shayron Curiel (16 apps / 4 goals) remains unavailable, following his arrest on robbery charges.
Fortuna Sittard is also a team which relies heavily on their homeground. Their 4-1 triumph at Almere was the first on the road this season and they coupled that success with a 3-2 disposal of Volendam. So far they haven’t recorded three wins on a trot and Tini Ruijs acknowledged that they have a tough task at GN Bouw Stadion. It’s not just because of their woeful 1W-2D-7L away record, but also due to the missing players. Midfielder Yoan de Boer (18 apps / 0 goals) reached a yellow card limit and he is suspended. Defender Rick Geenen (19 apps / 2 goals) and midfielder Richard Stolte (15 apps / 4 goals) are sidelined with injuries, while there are doubts over the fitness of defenders Fernando Ricksen (15 apps / 1 goal) and Marc Wagemakers (13 apps / 0 goals).
Talking about the Dutch Eerste Divisie, I don’t feel comfortable backing ANY team to win at odds below 1.80 as we often see weird results. Even if Dordrecht do appear to be the favorites to take the win, the price is too low for my taste. Instead, I am going to back them to win at half time. The odds are around 2.40 and it’s worth noticing that Dordrecht have taken the lead at half time in 8 out of their 12 games at home, which is actually the best record of any team in the league.
H2H STATS
21/01/2011 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 3-0 (1)
04/12/2009 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 2-1 (1)
24/10/2008 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 3-0 (1)
01/02/2008 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1-0 (1)
30/03/2007 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1-3 (2)
28/10/2005 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 6-1 (1)
20/08/2004 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1-1 (X)
17/10/2003 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 0-1 (2)
23/05/2003 Dordrecht vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1-2 (2)
My Pick: Dordrecht to win at Half Time @ 2.40
I dont like looking back at stats so far in the past. Over 2.5 @ 8/11 looks good to me considering both score home and away.
hmmm… i think India is gonna win. @12
^^^lol
im on a early Azer -1.5/ Haka double
£50 returns £248
started well.
knew i should of took overs.
just taken Teplice inplay at nearly 3/1
also
Shrewsbury
Dordrecht
Braga under 2.5goals
£50 returns £450
good luck
Vitoria missing two regular defenders, Jaoa Paulo (18 appearamces in league) and El Adoua (18 appearances). Benfica are in bad form and Braga must see this as an ideal time to move to within three points. I liked Ian’s logic but will steer clear with defenders out. This match has gone over four out of the last 5 times they’ve played. Both teams have scored five out of the last five games against each other. Best of luck!
Always best to do the over 2.5 goals in these games .. Finish league always throws up goals as Ian says ..
Argh.. great trebles screwed by Trabzonspor, Espanyol and Villareal over the weekend.
Very little to do in football tonight, so i am focusing on the Adriatic League (basketball) game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Hemofarm Vrsac. Maccabi played only last night in the Israeli league beating Maccabi Haifa (won 87:81), and are off to Barcelona for their final Euroleague group game (need an imaginary win by 15 to top it). Hemofarm arrive at the back of a bitter defeat 55:98 to Cibona. There are a few possibilities to pick from, the ones i like the most:
1. A lax defense game tonight leading to overs (here the limit is set at 151pts).
2. Guy Pnini given a chance to up his game by coach Blat (here the limit is set to 11pts)
Took those two with members tip #2 @4.16 and backed up @6.25, total stake ~10euro.
Good luck fellow punters!
Reims, Dartford & Braga treble
taking a stab at Welling DNB at 9/4…2-0 down but playing 9 men with 30 mins left
I went for braga(1.55) with 70% of my betting capital and 15% on over2.5(1.9)….i just hope im nt stupid
Come on, Lanús, don´t let us down!
Im thinking that too Ogre.
Glad I was holding off to HT. Think SMS scored with first shot. Lanus 11/4 now. Leave it until the HT team talk.
Quick tip for tomorrow night. Universidad de Chile are playing Cobreloa tomorrow night and are missing six first team players who have been called up to national side to play Ghana on Wednesday. They would normally be favourites but are missing two defenders, 4 midfielders and their best striker. They were beaten 3-0 away to OHiggins with what’s left of their team. Cobreloa are top of the league and are playing good football. Universidad would normally be favourites but can’t see them winning this. For conservative bettors, DNB Cobreloa @ 1.8. For more adventurous, Cobreloa win at 3.75.