Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
Last warning - approach international games with massive caution! They'll rob you blind before you know is keep stakes low here!
Typically, with international games everywhere, I've elected to pick a club game as my game of the day, which in this instance is the Polish Liga 1 game between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin. The two sides are both expected to compete for promotion this season and both certainly have the quality to do so and thus we should see a good game tonight.
However, out of the two sides, only Piast Gliwice have looked a dominant threat in the division with their visitors floundering due to a lack of goals. Piast have only won twice in five games, drawing their last three games consecutively. Generally speaking, I'd be afraid of that record but I feel it's a tad misleading in this instance so I'm not overly concerned. The reason I dismiss that particular statistic is because two of those games were two of the most difficult trips to make in this division (promotion candidates LKS Lodz in a 2-2 draw and Flota Swinoujscie 0-0) due to the quality and/or home advantage of the two sides. Their one abject display was their 0-0 draw at home to Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski but all in all, they've looked good in Liga 1 with clear intent to make a swift return to the Ekstraklasa. Piast have already beaten fellow promotion rivals GKS Katowice at home this season and are generally a very strong home side so I fancy them a lot today as a result, particularly as the quality in their side makes them the best side in the division, in my opinion.
I have a lt of respect for their opponents Pogon Szczecin too but they've failed to impress me so far this season en mass. I expected them to win comfortably in their last match at home to Dolcan Zabki and they did so but that's largely due to the inability of their opponents. In fact, that win was just their second Liga 1 win of the season with both wins coming at home against meager opponents, the other game being a win against Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski. They've played three away games in Liga 1 and have lost all of them, which isn't good enough for a supposed promotion candidate. The defeat at LKS Lodz is acceptable because LKS are a good side. I can even accept the defeat at difficult Flota Swinoujscie! However, losing at Sandecja Nowy Sacz simply isn't acceptable at all, especially having had a valuable lead at half-time only to throw it away and have a man dismissed petulantly. If Pogon defend as immaturely as they did in that game today, they're going to be torn apart by a Piast side that is very much due a win. Pogon are capable of stopping them, especially with arguably the best goalkeeper in the division (Janukiewicz) in goal for Pogon, but they've demonstrated little ability on the road so far this season and I don't see why that would start not.
On a good day, I'd half-fancy Pogon to get a draw here but given how little they've impressed me in difficult situations this season and considering that Piast are the better side, I have to favour the hosts here. Piast are favourites for promotion and I'll be surprised if they don't earn an Ekstraklasa place again this year with the quality at their disposal. Piast are often a force at home so as long as their strikers turn up today, the odds on the home win should turn out to be a little too generous here.
Team news - Piast miss Chalbinski, Halgas, and new loan signing Maycon whereas there are no notable absences for Pogon. It's also worth noting that Piast manager Brosz sits this one (and the next one) out in the stands after offending a referee against Ostrowiec but I don't expect that to massively impact Piast's play today.
Verdict: Piast Gliwice to win at 6/5.
Friday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Armenia vs Republic of Ireland - both sides to score at 6/5.
Both of these sides are very much worthy of respect; underestimate them and you'll be punished more often than not. However, the odds on Ireland to win this game are positively criminal! Ireland have won two out of their last ten away games and whereas they have faced some tricky sides along the way and battled as impressively as ever, they're still not a clinical side. Armenia are no giants of "European" football but they've started playing well at home of late with two wins in their last four games. They've beaten Belgium and Uzbekistan 2-1 and 3-1 respectively and lost 2-1 at home to Spain rather respectably too. They were leading at home to Iran in their last game before an abject second-half saw them lose the game 3-1 but one thing is for sure - Armenia are developing quite rapidly. Their defence is still shaky but their attack is good as seven goals scored in their last four games indicates all too well. To beat this Armenia side you have to outscore them and that may be where Ireland stumble today. If Armenia's defence was better than I'd probably edge laying Republic of Ireland at 11/10. Then again, with Duff and McShane having pulled out through injury, the lay does appeal to me. Howevr, Armenia's defence isn't good so both sides scoring in this game at 6/5 really appeals to me, especially considering that Armenia have scored for four consecutive home games and Ireland have scored in four consecutive away games!
Verdict: Both sides to score at 6/5.
Kazakhstan vs Turkey - Kazakhstan to win with +2.5 handicap at 4/5.
I love this bet for some reason! This bet would mean that Kazakhstan winning nineteen out of their last twenty-one home games, which I think is pretty damn convincing. The only two sides to batter Kazakhstan here were an on-fire Belarus and a fortunate England. As many of you many remember, England somehow won in Kazakhstan 4-0 despite not playing well. Only a lack of stamina towards the end of the game by the hosts and some suicidal defending gave England such a heavy win. Football-wise, Kazakhstan looked good; they just didn't put the ball in the net. However, against what I can only describe as one of Turkey's weaker sides, I fancy the Kazakhs to score at least one goal today. Turkey are obviously the better side but they're not playing particularly well internationally and they're really running rather short on quality nowadays. Their latest squad is puzzling with some of the players included not even playing for their clubs at the moment so I think there'll be some dishamony in the Turkish camp with that in mind. Turkey have never been good defensively; they only know how to attack. This bet would mean that Turkey have lost sixteen out of their last seventeen away games with their only exception being an uncharacteristic 3-0 win at Ukraine last year. Turkey have never travelled well and although their potency is a concern, I really can't see them running away with this unless they're clever enough tactically to note how tired Kazakhstan get in the last third of each game. For me, giving Kazakhstan a +2.5 goal head start in this game looks very good indeed today.
Verdict: Kazakhstan to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Andorra vs Russia - Andorra to win with +4.5 handicap at 3/4.
To appreciate why this bet potentially has value, I want you to imagine for one moment that Andorra are not footballing minnows. Now look at Russia's record of not having scored more than three goals in a game for their last twenty-one consecutive games. Then consider that giving Andorra +4.5 goals as a head start means that they've won seventeen out of their last nineteen home games. Only then can you begin to see what I mean here. If you go off names and are a complete fucking moron then you'll no doubt say 0-10. Russia are a good side and obviously a lot better than Andorra but they're simply not a big goalscoring side. They travelled to face Andorra at the end of the last European Championships campaign in a must-win game and won 1-0 in a nervous encounter. Andorra have got better since then and although they're still a weak side, they simply don't concede many goals anymore unless a side plays very well against them. Andorra have battled their way to 1-0 defeats against Cyprus and Albania in their two most recent friendlies and whereas they might not be footballing giants, they are respectable defeats away from home against two competent sides. Andorra have become a lot more physical as a side and I fancy them to cause Russia some problems today. For me, these odds are a gift today and although Russia could potentially win this game 0-8, I just don't see enough in their squad for them to do so today and thus I think the value is with Andorra. I'm even tempted to try +3.5 goals at better odds but this one is safer so that's my recommendation today.
Verdict: Andorra to win with +4.5 goal handicap at 3/4.
Faroe Islands vs Serbia - under 2.5 goals at 13/10.
This looks a classic under 2.5 goals game to me so I'll be all over it. I really wanted to give the Faroes a +2.5 goal head start but the bookies are catching on that Faroe Islands are a lot harder to beat than they used to be. Kerr's side are well-organised, disciplined, and generally very hard to beat. They faced Estonia in their most recent game away from home as a farewell to Faroese legend Jakup A Borg and they led for a great portion of the game before conceding two very late goals to lose the game. Faroe Islands are not rubbing rags anymore - they're a very physical and hard-to-beat side. I don't think they're as potent as Scandinavian neighbours Iceland but I rate them as being equal defensively. We all know Serbia are a defensive side and are well-organised too but they're not great goalscorers themselves. I think they're going to find a very physical opponent today and that doesn't suit Serbia - they prefer that as their advantage. Serbia should edge this game but for me, under 2.5 goals is the way to go here although I'd be lying if I said that backing Faroe Islands to win with +1.5 handicap at 33/20 didn't intrigue me.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 13/10.
San Marino vs Netherlands - away win with -4.5 handicap at 6/5.
Do I really need to explain this one? San Marino are still terrible and the recall of one of Europe's finest ever finishers Ruud van Nistelrooy to the Dutch side can only be a good thing. The odds are good enough to take too!
Verdict: Netherlands to win with a -4.5 goal handicap at 6/5.
Liechtenstein vs Spain - Liechtenstein to win with +3.5 handicap at 11/10.
This one is one of my more bold calls of the day but I still like it. Why? Well, Liechtenstein aren't as bad as they were. A draw at Iceland last match showed that they're not only capable of nicking the odd goal nowadays but they're also a solid unit defensively. Peter Jehle is a good goalkeeper and the likes of Burgmeier bring experience to this side so don't write the hosts off here. Giving the hosts a +3.5 goal head start in their last twelve home games means that Liechtenstein win eleven of those games. The only side to break that record was a rampant German side, running out 6-0 winners. Liechtenstein still have a long way to go in the football world but they're certainly not rubbing rags anymore - they'll not lie down against the world champions today. However, Spain are indeed world champions so caution must be used here. Spain are a magnificent side and we all know they could beat any international side on the planet if they so desired so it depends how they approah the game. My bet is based upon Spain's general inability to break down sides that stick ten men behind the ball as they demonstrated numerous times in the World Cup and with none of their players having played consistently of late due to respective leagues having only just started so they may even be a tad rusty - Torres has certainly looked it. I do expect Spain to win this game, ultimately, but I don't think it'll be as flambuoyant as normal. Let's face it - Spain are bad enough defensively to concede in this game so I think Liechtenstein can succeed with a +3.5 goal head start today, risky though it undoubtedly is.
Verdict: Liechtenstein to win with a +3.5 goal handicap at 11/10.
France vs Belarus - under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
The state of France is well-documented with many big names suspended and a lot of unproven and fairly average players left behind. I rate manager Blanc as the finest in France currently so I'm sure he'll improve them at least a little in the near future. However, they're not there yet and losing a lead against Norway of late showed that in its entirety. France is in a transitional period and I don't fancy them against anyone at the moment, basically. Belarus, however, are a side on the ride. Unlike most Eastern European nations, Belarus actually play good football and keep the ball well. They're lethal on the counter attack with the pace of both Hleb brothers and they have some hard players in defence and midfield to provide the necessary steel when defending. I rate this Belarusian side very highly indeed and if they had only claimed Milevskiy before Ukraine did then I believe they'd be a very good side indeed nowadays. However, as it happens, they're a side that keeps the ball well, keeps opponents out, but doesn't score as many as they should. I fancy them to frustrate France tonight with their passing ability and talented players and ultimately I feel under 2.5 goals is on the card with either a low-scoring draw or a narrow victory on the horizon.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Belarus U21 vs Scotland U21 - home win at 5/4.
I'm a massive advocate of the Belarusian U21 side because they've been good for a few years now. They're not at their best defensively but in attack, they have some really promising players. Dinamo Minsk midfielder Dmitri Rekish and Cagliari midfielder Mikhail Sivakov are very good players in midfield for the hosts and are generally instrumental to Belarusian success when they're started together. Belarus' U21 side is largely composed of Dinamo Minsk players, which aids the squad's cohesion, understandably. Indeed, they play a similar style of possession football to the Belarusian giants so Belarus U21 have a good platform to build upon. Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih striker Varankov is proving a valuable asset in attack and generally, Belarus are looking pretty damn good. They've scored seven goals in their last three games to demonstrate their potency and even came from 3-1 down at Austria U21 last match to draw 3-3, demonstrating their belief against a very good Austria U21 side. Interestingly enough, the only side to beat them in their last six games was Scotland in a 1-0 defeat but that was away; this one is in Borisov. The only side to win at Belarus U21 in the last five years is Italy, which is an understandable defeat, really! They play good attacking football and although Scotland U21 are a fairly solid unit defensively, their criticism has to be not scoring enough goals. Their last game was a 2-2 draw at home to ten-men Azerbaijan U21, embarassingly enough, which displays how easily they can be contained on their day. The Scots are a feisty bunch and won't make this easy for Belarus but I think the hosts will just outscore them today, to be honest. Odds of 5/4 are good in my view as I consider Belarus U21 to be one of the better U21 sides in Europe currently and it's also worth noting that both sides need the points here as a win for either side lifts them above Austria into first place with just one game remaining after that.
Verdict: Belarus U21 to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Spain, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden U21, Northern Ireland U21, Sparta Rotterdam.
Recommended bets:
Sweden U21 and Belarus U21 at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!
UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:
Armenia vs Republic of Ireland (5) 1-1
Kazakhstan vs Turkey (5) 1-2
Moldova vs Finland (6) 0-0
Andorra vs Russia (8) 0-2
Faroe Islands vs Serbia (6) under 2.5 goals
Montenegro vs Wales (5) 1-1
Sweden vs Hungary (7) 2-1
Romania vs Albania (6) under 2.5 goals
Latvia vs Croatia (7) 1-2
Lithuania vs Scotland (6) 0-0
Luxembourg vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (7) over 2.5 goals
Estonia vs Italy (4) 0-0
Slovakia vs Republic of Macedonia (7) 2-0
San Marino vs Netherlands (10) -4.5 handicap
Liechtenstein vs Spain (8) -1.5 handicap
Belgium vs Germany (7) 1-2
Slovenia vs Northern Ireland (7) 2-0
Greece vs Georgia (7) 1-0
France vs Belarus (6) 0-0
England vs Bulgaria (7) 2-1
Iceland vs Norway (6) 1-1
Portugal vs Cyprus (4) 1-0
African Nations Qualifiers:
Algeria vs Tanzania (7) 2-0
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Slovenia vs Belgium (5) 1-1
Romania vs Russia (6) 1-1
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy (4) 2-1
Belarus vs Scotland (7) 1-0
Sweden vs Israel (8) 2-0
Finland vs Poland (4) 1-2
Norway vs Cyprus (7) 1-0
Czech Republic vs Germany (5) 2-1
Ukraine vs France (6) 1-1
Portugal vs England (6) 1-1
Switzerland vs Republic of Ireland (7) 2-1
Northern Ireland vs San Marino (10) -2.5 handicap
International Friendlies:
Venezuela vs Colombia (6) 1-1
Kuwait vs Syria (6) 1-0
China vs Iran (7) 1-1
Qatar vs Bahrain (7) 0-0
Oman vs Malaysia (5) 1-1(played in Doha)
Switzerland vs Australia (5) 1-0
Panama vs Costa Rica (5) 2-2
Argentinian Primera Division:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory (6) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs America de Cali (6) over 2.5 goals
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs Fredericia (6)
Finnish Ykkonen:
PK-35 Helsinki vs OPS Oulu (5) under 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Dundalk vs Bray Wanderers (7) 1-0
Galway United vs St.Patrick's Athletic (6) 1-2
Sporting Fingal vs Bohemians (5) 1-1
UCD vs Drogheda United (4) 2-1
Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers (7) 2-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs Volendam (6)
MVV Maastricht vs RBC Roosendaal (5)
Telstar vs Den Bosch (6)
Almere City vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (7)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Helmond Sport (6)
Dordrecht '90 vs Zwolle (6)
Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard (8)
Veendam vs Emmen (5)
Polish Liga 1:
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin (7)
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Etoile (5) 2-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Santos vs Avai
Today's featured game is the Serie A encounter between Santos and Avai. Both sides have played well this season and are both currently in the top eight as a result so we should hopefully see a good game of football tonight.
The reason Santos are doing so well is because of the nucleus of home-grown talent in the squad. The likes of Neymar, Ganso, Andre, and Wesley formed an exciting attacking unit and Santos have benefited strongly from it. However, as per usual, Santos have been forced to part with some of those players for financial reasons. Neymar and Ganso are yet to move on despite both being heavily linked with moves abroad. Andre has signed for Dynamo Kiev and Wesley has signed for Werder Bremen to replace Turkish German international Mesut Ozil after his departure to Real Madrid. Santos are used to this kind of problem, however, which is why they've signed Rodrigo Possebon from Manchester United and Keirrison on loan from Barcelona. Add those players to a side that already has experienced Edu Dracena and Arouca in it and the problem doesn't seem too bad. Admittedly, there will be a teething period and it could very well start tonight but Santos remain a very determined unit and should prove to be such again tonight despite having recently lost influential midfielder Wesley.
Santos bring a good level of momentum into this game following four consecutive wins and with seven goals scored along the way, they're not showing any signs of slowing down despite their departing youngsters, impressively enough. They've already won five out of seven at home this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game so it's pretty much a given that in-form Santos will score against Avai tonight, just as they have done for the last four consecutive meetings between the two sides.
The big question is "will Avai join the party?", to which my answer is "yes". Why? Well, Avai are a plucky side. They've got a lot of guile and tenacity and although they do lack in the defensive department, they never seem to be short on goalscoring, although that is a more relevant statement when compared to their home form. Avai do average scoring a goal per away game at present but considering that they average scoring over two goals per home game, it's not that an impressive record anymore. Avai actually average conceding two goals per away game at the moment so they've got defensive problems here before the match begins! Avai were on a barren run before their trip to relegation-threatened Atletico Goianiense last match as they claimed a 2-2 draw, which was their first points and first goals for three consecutive games, a run which included a home game against their opponents tonight, Santos. However, this was little more than a blip on Avai's form chart as their other head-to-head statistics reveal with both sides scoring at least once in their previous three meetings. Their last game at Santos actually ended 1-3 in favour of Avai earlier this season in the Copa Sudamericana so don't doubt the visitors today despite their poor run of form - the likes of Caio and Vandinho often have other ideas when sides write them off!
All in all, Santos aren't at their most complete due to Wesley departing despite the form chart showing otherwise and Avai aren't as bad as the form chart makes out either. I think the bookies have been just a little lenient with the odds on show tonight as both sides are simply goalscoring sides by nature and their head-to-heads almost always reflect that.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/6.
Thursday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Israel vs Malta - Malta to win with +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.
I genuinely can't believe my eyes with these odds. Ok, Israel are a good side on their day if they somehow find an alternative to Benayoun carrying them but they're not good enough to earn 1/12 here! They're a decent possession side and they're not easy to beat but they're certainly not natural goalscorers. The only time they've beaten a side to a sufficient level for the above handicap to fail was a somewhat uncharacteristic 7-0 win against Luxembourg last year - the last time prior to that was Estonia in 2007. Don't get me wrong here - the likes of Katan, Sahar, and Arbeitman are good strikers, as is Argentinian striker Colautti, but they're not deadly at this level. Israel are a sound side but they're simply not ruthless enough to destroy Malta today, in my humble opinion, although they should ultimately win the game.
I'd be the first one to admit that Malta aren't exactly world-beaters but what they are is hard to break down. They've played three games this year. They lost 1-2 at home to Finland despite matching their Scandinavian visitors for the majority of the game. They were then undone 3-0 away from home by a good Germany side before holding Republic of Macedonia to a 1-1 draw at home a few weeks ago. Malta aren't the walkover side that they used to be. With the likes of Mifsud and Bogdanovic playing abroad, Maltese experience on the continent is starting to increase and their overall football is beginning to show it. They're not good enough to be taking points off the Israelis today barring a miraculous display but I do think they're good enough to stop the Israelis from making this a walk in the park. I've got scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 in my head but I'd be surprised to see anything more than that.
Obviously this isn't a dead certain bet and remember what I said the other day regarding caution when betting on international games! However, the odds on Israel winning this game are too short for my liking so I think giving the Maltese side a +2.5 goal handicap at generous odds of 10/11 could be very worthwhile today if things unfold as I expect them to.
Verdict: Malta to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.
Spain vs Netherlands - over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
I don't really think there's much I can write here, regrettably! I often have this problem with international selections as there isn't an awful lot you can write about. Simply put - these are two goalscoring sides with very talented players. Netherlands' last five consecutive games have gone over 2.5 goals (including a 2-1 win against Spain) and three out of Spain's last five games have gone over 2.5 goals. Spain's defence isn't as good as Netherlands' but they make up for it by boasting a marginally better attack. Netherlands don't need to win this game as they've already qualified for Denmark 2011 but Spain could do with winning this one as they're four points clear of Poland with two games remaining and with their last game being away at Poland, three points today would be very welcome indeed. I therefore see Spain attacking a lot and the Dutch having some joy on the counter-attack which leaves me with over 2.5 goals at decent odds. I'd leave the home win though - 8/11 leaves a sour taste in my mouth for a game between two good sides so I'd perhaps hit it in-play if you're interested in the 1X2 side of this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
No multiples appeal to me today, guys, although feel free to check out my thoughts on the rest of the day's action below!
UEFA European Championship Qualifier:
Israel vs Malta (6) 1-0
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier:
Spain vs Netherlands (7) over 2.5 goals
Copa Sudamericana:
Olimpia Asuncion vs Defensor Sporting (4) 2-1
Velez Sarsfield vs Banfield (6) under 2.5 goals
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos vs Avai (5) 2-2
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Goianiense (5) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Sengkang Punggol (5) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Goias vs Atletico Mineiro
Today's featured game is the Serie A game between Goias and Atletico Mineiro in Brazil. Both sides are battling against the dreaded drop so we should see a hard-fought game between two relatively poor sides tonight as a result.
Looking at hosts Goias first, however - bottom of the table after seventeen games with three wins all season - it doesn't look good, does it? Goias fans have reason for concern too as their side just doesn't score enough goals to drag themselves away from the relegation zone. Only newly-promoted Ceara and striker-less Flamengo have scored as few goals as they have this season but even those two sides can't match Goias' paltry record of six goals scored in eight home games. It speaks volumes as to why Goias have won just once in those eight games, drawing three times and losing four times along the way. They don't concede many at home, to their credit, but just one goal can be a killer if you don't score the goals to match your opponents. The problem in the squad obviously starts with quality; something they have very little of. Their best striker is Everton Santos and even he's not able to hold this club up on his own. Where else is the stability in their squad - Rafael Toloi? Too young. Amaral and Jonilson in midfield? Maybe. There's not enough leaders in this side and not enough goalscorers so Goias are in a very bad way indeed, particularly on the back of four consecutive defeats with one goal scored and nine goals conceded.
Visitors Atletico Mineiro aren't a particularly bad side in all honesty - they just can't defend. Naturally, they have their key players that bail them out from tricky situations, namely experienced midfielder Ricardinho and ex-PSV Eindhoven striker Diego Tardelli in attack, who is their leading goalscorer. That's two "match winners" that they boast over their hosts Goias as Goias really lack that extra edge when they have possession - someone to make something happen. Manager Vanderlei Luxemburgo knows the script; he's been around long enough and is good enough to keep Atletico in the division, in my opinion. Like most Brazilian clubs, Atletico Mineiro struggled to hold onto their more important players from last season with Jonilson moving to Goias, Renan moving to Guarani, Thiago moving to Atletico Goianiense etc. Most notable was the departure of Tardelli's strike partner Eder Luis, who moved to SL Benfica for a brief loan spell. He returned to Mineiro at the start of August but has failed to recapture the form that saw he and Tardelli forge one of the most lethal strike duos in Brazil last season. Atletico Mineiro are very much a home side which is why they've struggled on the road this season and I don't expect anything different tonight although I have to confess that I do rate them as a better side than Goias.
So - a Goias side that doesn't score goals at home against an Atletico Mineiro side that doesn't score goals away! Five out of Atletico's last six away games have gone under 2.5 goals and four out of Goias' last six home games have gone under 2.5 goals. Five out of the last six meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals and with neither side keen on scoring and both probably happy to take a draw here, my call is under 2.5 goals at slightly generous odds.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 17/20.
Wednesday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Vitoria vs Internacional - home win at 13/10.
This was a contender for game of the day because I have an awful lot of faith in Vitoria at home as they consistently demonstrate year after year just how hard a region Bahia is to travel to. They're not free of the relegation zone yet but I have very little doubt in saying I'm confident they'll avoid relegation because of their excellent home form. They've played eight home games this season, winning four times, drawing three times, and losing just once. They abandon their usually strong defence when playing at home in favour of a more ruthless attacking football and as a result, only Corinthians and Avai have scored more than they have at home this season in Serie A. It's also worth noting that Vitoria do concede a lot of goals with their haphazard attacking football with only Atletico Mineiro the only side to have conceded as many goals as Vitoria have at home this season. However, Vitoria have looked strong lately with two wins (at home to Santos and away against Cruzeiro), a valiant defeat at Corinthians last match, and an unimpressive 1-1 draw with Guarani although that's the only blemish in their last four games, in my opinion. Generally speaking, the only way to stop Vitoria taking points at home is to outscore them, as obvious as it may sound. Vitoria haven't failed to score in a Serie A home game since November 2009 so you know what you're up against when you face them away from home!
Visitors Internacional have suffered something of a contintenal hangover after beating Mexican side Guadalajara in the Copa Libertadores final with a string of unconvincing results following that historic result. They've drawn at home to lowly Atletico Goianiense but have then beaten both Avai away and Botafogo at home, which looks good on paper but their performances haven't impressed me, to be honest. They've won their last two games 1-0, which is fair enough - a win is a win, after all. However, they're facing a side tonight that almost certainly will score against them and with Internacional looking as impotent as ever, it's hard to see them doing damage to their hosts tonight. The reason they've struggled moreso than normal of late is because star striker Alecsandro and Argentinian midfielder Guinazu have both been missing through injury since the Copa Libertadores final and if the information I've been given is correct then they'll both miss this game too. To go to Vitoria with an under-strength side is never a good idea and although Internacional don't concede many on the road, they don't score vast amounts either, particularly without Alecsandro, who has scored over a third of their goals away from home this season. His replacement Rafael Sobis isn't what he used to be and his lacklustre displays haven't impressed me whatsoever so altogether, Internacional should have problems tonight.
Vitoria have beaten Internacional at home for three consecutive seasons now and I don't see an Internacional side playing tonight that is capable of rectifying that record. For that to happen, they're going to need goalkeeper Renan in top form, midfield duo Andrezinho and D'Alessandro in top form, and striker Rafael Sobis back to his best and I personally feel all of the above are rather a long shot. Vitoria are always solid at home because of the united front that they present so for me, this game has the hallmarks of a scrappy but valuable home win for Vitoria against continentally-hungover Internacional.
Verdict: Vitoria to win at 13/10.
Atletico Paranaense vs Ceara - home win at 9/10.
This one's considerably easier to write about - one good home side against one very poor side! Simple! No defeats in three games for Atletico gives them the momentum to do well tonight, particularly as they've won two of those games and kept two clean sheets along the way. They've played Santos, Sao Paulo, Flamengo, and Gremio in their last four games and have won twice and drawn twice, which should give you some indication as to how good they are at home. They don't score enough goals in general but a weak Ceara side should play a part there. I know statistics show that Ceara are a strong defensive unit but that was under their first and second manager respectively. Their third manager of this season is attempting a more suicidal attacking football. It's a respectable aim, I admit, but it's a foolhardy one because Ceara are really a very poor side. Look upon them as a type of Stoke City of the Brazilian Serie A and you'll know what I mean (and that's no insult to Stoke, incidentally!) - if they abandon their defensive shape, they get ripped apart. Their attacking football paid dividends at home to Gremio in a 2-1 win but that's the only time it's worked with Botafogo beating them since than and a weak Gremio Prudente claiming a 2-2 draw at Ceara last match. I basically expect Ceara to attack Atletico tonight and as Atletico are a better side, I fancy them to make the most of it. The odds are a tad lower than I'd hoped but I still like the win as Atletico's goalscoring problems should be resolved by Ceara coming out of their shell and attacking so I expect a home win tonight. With the above in mind, over 2.5 goals at 21/20 also looks intriguing despite contradicting statistics!
Verdict: Atletico Paranaense to win at 9/10.
Ferencvaros vs Gyori ETO FC - home win at 6/5.
This is a risky call but I'm banking on Ferencvaros' pride doing a lot of damage here. Ferencvaros are the biggest Hungarian side by a mile and their determination to be back at the top of the Soproni Liga is massive, as their active interest in the transfer market showed over summer. The acquisition of Czech attacker Marek Heinz was an inspired one both for his experience and ability and he's shown glimpses of his ability for Ferencvaros already this season, happily. Serbian midfielder Stanic was signed from Disogyori VTK after an impressive campaign too so Ferencvaros haven't exactly rested on their laurels having avoided relegation after their first season back in the top flight of Hungarian football. Their battling spirit and intense support often gives them an extra man so you'll rarely find me going against Ferencvaros. However, those two aspects combined can also result in Ferencvaros losing a man, as it proved in the derby at home to Budapest Honved lately, where the afore-mentioned Stanic was dismissed in Ferencvaros' only defeat of the season thus far. Although Ferencvaros' defence is questionable, their attack rarely is as they've proven by scoring at least once in all of their games so far this season so my only doubt here is whether they'll outscore their opponents or not, although a draw at impressive Fehervar last match has certainly done enough to convince me that they're a lot more capable this season than they were last season.
It aids my bet that Gyori ETO FC have had European committments for some time now because their squad is looking rather stretched. Finding an adequate replacement for departed Estonian midfielder/striker Tarmo Kink has proved tricky, as has the departure of midfielder Jozsi to their hosts today. Gyori ETO FC still have a very capable squad and their strength has always been defence so the challenge is for Ferencvaros to shatter it today. However, given that Gyori have only just returned from Croatia to play their fourth game in twelve days, you have to fancy the visitors to be a little jaded here. Their overall domestic displays this season have looked rather jaded and understandably so - European football has to be their priority. However, despite Gyori's defence looking about as strong as usual, their attack doesn't look as threatening and with tiredness sure to be a factor here, I find it hard to be very concerned about Gyori today, as dangerous as that could prove to be.
Ferencvaros beat title candidates Gyori ETO FC 1-0 here last season and in general have a very strong home record against their visitors today, a record that stretches back to the 90's so the hosts know how to beat the pretenders to what they believe is their throne. Ferencvaros are strengthening year by year and it shouldn't be too long before they're competing with Debreceni VSC, Gyori ETO FC, and Fehervar for the Soproni Liga title. Visitors Gyori ETO FC are finding life in the spotlight a little harder than normal and a trip to volatile Ferencvaros at this stage of the season should be considered rather unwelcome. I therefore think that the odds on the home win are decent value although this should be a close game nonetheless.
Verdict: Ferencvaros to win at 6/5.
Recommended bets:
Singles only today, guys - I don't like any multiples, unfortunately!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!
Copa Sudamericana:
River Plate Montevideo vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 2-1
Trujillanos vs Atletico Huila (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Brazilian Serie A:
Vitoria vs Internacional (6) 2-1
Gremio vs Guarani (4) 1-1
Gremio Prudente vs Botafogo (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Goias vs Atletico Mineiro (5) under 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo (6) 1-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Ceara (7) over 2.5 goals
Fluminense vs Palmeiras (7) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Lombard Papa (5) over 2.5 goals
Ferencvaros vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Beijing Guoan vs Tampines Rovers (7) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Superettan:
Angelholm vs Assyriska Sodertalje (4) draw no bet
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Aragua vs Deportivo Lara (5) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!
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