Santos vs Avai
Today's featured game is the Serie A encounter between Santos and Avai. Both sides have played well this season and are both currently in the top eight as a result so we should hopefully see a good game of football tonight.
The reason Santos are doing so well is because of the nucleus of home-grown talent in the squad. The likes of Neymar, Ganso, Andre, and Wesley formed an exciting attacking unit and Santos have benefited strongly from it. However, as per usual, Santos have been forced to part with some of those players for financial reasons. Neymar and Ganso are yet to move on despite both being heavily linked with moves abroad. Andre has signed for Dynamo Kiev and Wesley has signed for Werder Bremen to replace Turkish German international Mesut Ozil after his departure to Real Madrid. Santos are used to this kind of problem, however, which is why they've signed Rodrigo Possebon from Manchester United and Keirrison on loan from Barcelona. Add those players to a side that already has experienced Edu Dracena and Arouca in it and the problem doesn't seem too bad. Admittedly, there will be a teething period and it could very well start tonight but Santos remain a very determined unit and should prove to be such again tonight despite having recently lost influential midfielder Wesley.
Santos bring a good level of momentum into this game following four consecutive wins and with seven goals scored along the way, they're not showing any signs of slowing down despite their departing youngsters, impressively enough. They've already won five out of seven at home this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game so it's pretty much a given that in-form Santos will score against Avai tonight, just as they have done for the last four consecutive meetings between the two sides.
The big question is "will Avai join the party?", to which my answer is "yes". Why? Well, Avai are a plucky side. They've got a lot of guile and tenacity and although they do lack in the defensive department, they never seem to be short on goalscoring, although that is a more relevant statement when compared to their home form. Avai do average scoring a goal per away game at present but considering that they average scoring over two goals per home game, it's not that an impressive record anymore. Avai actually average conceding two goals per away game at the moment so they've got defensive problems here before the match begins! Avai were on a barren run before their trip to relegation-threatened Atletico Goianiense last match as they claimed a 2-2 draw, which was their first points and first goals for three consecutive games, a run which included a home game against their opponents tonight, Santos. However, this was little more than a blip on Avai's form chart as their other head-to-head statistics reveal with both sides scoring at least once in their previous three meetings. Their last game at Santos actually ended 1-3 in favour of Avai earlier this season in the Copa Sudamericana so don't doubt the visitors today despite their poor run of form - the likes of Caio and Vandinho often have other ideas when sides write them off!
All in all, Santos aren't at their most complete due to Wesley departing despite the form chart showing otherwise and Avai aren't as bad as the form chart makes out either. I think the bookies have been just a little lenient with the odds on show tonight as both sides are simply goalscoring sides by nature and their head-to-heads almost always reflect that.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/6.
Thursday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Israel vs Malta - Malta to win with +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.
I genuinely can't believe my eyes with these odds. Ok, Israel are a good side on their day if they somehow find an alternative to Benayoun carrying them but they're not good enough to earn 1/12 here! They're a decent possession side and they're not easy to beat but they're certainly not natural goalscorers. The only time they've beaten a side to a sufficient level for the above handicap to fail was a somewhat uncharacteristic 7-0 win against Luxembourg last year - the last time prior to that was Estonia in 2007. Don't get me wrong here - the likes of Katan, Sahar, and Arbeitman are good strikers, as is Argentinian striker Colautti, but they're not deadly at this level. Israel are a sound side but they're simply not ruthless enough to destroy Malta today, in my humble opinion, although they should ultimately win the game.
I'd be the first one to admit that Malta aren't exactly world-beaters but what they are is hard to break down. They've played three games this year. They lost 1-2 at home to Finland despite matching their Scandinavian visitors for the majority of the game. They were then undone 3-0 away from home by a good Germany side before holding Republic of Macedonia to a 1-1 draw at home a few weeks ago. Malta aren't the walkover side that they used to be. With the likes of Mifsud and Bogdanovic playing abroad, Maltese experience on the continent is starting to increase and their overall football is beginning to show it. They're not good enough to be taking points off the Israelis today barring a miraculous display but I do think they're good enough to stop the Israelis from making this a walk in the park. I've got scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 in my head but I'd be surprised to see anything more than that.
Obviously this isn't a dead certain bet and remember what I said the other day regarding caution when betting on international games! However, the odds on Israel winning this game are too short for my liking so I think giving the Maltese side a +2.5 goal handicap at generous odds of 10/11 could be very worthwhile today if things unfold as I expect them to.
Verdict: Malta to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.
Spain vs Netherlands - over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
I don't really think there's much I can write here, regrettably! I often have this problem with international selections as there isn't an awful lot you can write about. Simply put - these are two goalscoring sides with very talented players. Netherlands' last five consecutive games have gone over 2.5 goals (including a 2-1 win against Spain) and three out of Spain's last five games have gone over 2.5 goals. Spain's defence isn't as good as Netherlands' but they make up for it by boasting a marginally better attack. Netherlands don't need to win this game as they've already qualified for Denmark 2011 but Spain could do with winning this one as they're four points clear of Poland with two games remaining and with their last game being away at Poland, three points today would be very welcome indeed. I therefore see Spain attacking a lot and the Dutch having some joy on the counter-attack which leaves me with over 2.5 goals at decent odds. I'd leave the home win though - 8/11 leaves a sour taste in my mouth for a game between two good sides so I'd perhaps hit it in-play if you're interested in the 1X2 side of this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
No multiples appeal to me today, guys, although feel free to check out my thoughts on the rest of the day's action below!
UEFA European Championship Qualifier:
Israel vs Malta (6) 1-0
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier:
Spain vs Netherlands (7) over 2.5 goals
Copa Sudamericana:
Olimpia Asuncion vs Defensor Sporting (4) 2-1
Velez Sarsfield vs Banfield (6) under 2.5 goals
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos vs Avai (5) 2-2
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Goianiense (5) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Sengkang Punggol (5) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Goias vs Atletico Mineiro
Today's featured game is the Serie A game between Goias and Atletico Mineiro in Brazil. Both sides are battling against the dreaded drop so we should see a hard-fought game between two relatively poor sides tonight as a result.
Looking at hosts Goias first, however - bottom of the table after seventeen games with three wins all season - it doesn't look good, does it? Goias fans have reason for concern too as their side just doesn't score enough goals to drag themselves away from the relegation zone. Only newly-promoted Ceara and striker-less Flamengo have scored as few goals as they have this season but even those two sides can't match Goias' paltry record of six goals scored in eight home games. It speaks volumes as to why Goias have won just once in those eight games, drawing three times and losing four times along the way. They don't concede many at home, to their credit, but just one goal can be a killer if you don't score the goals to match your opponents. The problem in the squad obviously starts with quality; something they have very little of. Their best striker is Everton Santos and even he's not able to hold this club up on his own. Where else is the stability in their squad - Rafael Toloi? Too young. Amaral and Jonilson in midfield? Maybe. There's not enough leaders in this side and not enough goalscorers so Goias are in a very bad way indeed, particularly on the back of four consecutive defeats with one goal scored and nine goals conceded.
Visitors Atletico Mineiro aren't a particularly bad side in all honesty - they just can't defend. Naturally, they have their key players that bail them out from tricky situations, namely experienced midfielder Ricardinho and ex-PSV Eindhoven striker Diego Tardelli in attack, who is their leading goalscorer. That's two "match winners" that they boast over their hosts Goias as Goias really lack that extra edge when they have possession - someone to make something happen. Manager Vanderlei Luxemburgo knows the script; he's been around long enough and is good enough to keep Atletico in the division, in my opinion. Like most Brazilian clubs, Atletico Mineiro struggled to hold onto their more important players from last season with Jonilson moving to Goias, Renan moving to Guarani, Thiago moving to Atletico Goianiense etc. Most notable was the departure of Tardelli's strike partner Eder Luis, who moved to SL Benfica for a brief loan spell. He returned to Mineiro at the start of August but has failed to recapture the form that saw he and Tardelli forge one of the most lethal strike duos in Brazil last season. Atletico Mineiro are very much a home side which is why they've struggled on the road this season and I don't expect anything different tonight although I have to confess that I do rate them as a better side than Goias.
So - a Goias side that doesn't score goals at home against an Atletico Mineiro side that doesn't score goals away! Five out of Atletico's last six away games have gone under 2.5 goals and four out of Goias' last six home games have gone under 2.5 goals. Five out of the last six meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals and with neither side keen on scoring and both probably happy to take a draw here, my call is under 2.5 goals at slightly generous odds.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 17/20.
Wednesday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Vitoria vs Internacional - home win at 13/10.
This was a contender for game of the day because I have an awful lot of faith in Vitoria at home as they consistently demonstrate year after year just how hard a region Bahia is to travel to. They're not free of the relegation zone yet but I have very little doubt in saying I'm confident they'll avoid relegation because of their excellent home form. They've played eight home games this season, winning four times, drawing three times, and losing just once. They abandon their usually strong defence when playing at home in favour of a more ruthless attacking football and as a result, only Corinthians and Avai have scored more than they have at home this season in Serie A. It's also worth noting that Vitoria do concede a lot of goals with their haphazard attacking football with only Atletico Mineiro the only side to have conceded as many goals as Vitoria have at home this season. However, Vitoria have looked strong lately with two wins (at home to Santos and away against Cruzeiro), a valiant defeat at Corinthians last match, and an unimpressive 1-1 draw with Guarani although that's the only blemish in their last four games, in my opinion. Generally speaking, the only way to stop Vitoria taking points at home is to outscore them, as obvious as it may sound. Vitoria haven't failed to score in a Serie A home game since November 2009 so you know what you're up against when you face them away from home!
Visitors Internacional have suffered something of a contintenal hangover after beating Mexican side Guadalajara in the Copa Libertadores final with a string of unconvincing results following that historic result. They've drawn at home to lowly Atletico Goianiense but have then beaten both Avai away and Botafogo at home, which looks good on paper but their performances haven't impressed me, to be honest. They've won their last two games 1-0, which is fair enough - a win is a win, after all. However, they're facing a side tonight that almost certainly will score against them and with Internacional looking as impotent as ever, it's hard to see them doing damage to their hosts tonight. The reason they've struggled moreso than normal of late is because star striker Alecsandro and Argentinian midfielder Guinazu have both been missing through injury since the Copa Libertadores final and if the information I've been given is correct then they'll both miss this game too. To go to Vitoria with an under-strength side is never a good idea and although Internacional don't concede many on the road, they don't score vast amounts either, particularly without Alecsandro, who has scored over a third of their goals away from home this season. His replacement Rafael Sobis isn't what he used to be and his lacklustre displays haven't impressed me whatsoever so altogether, Internacional should have problems tonight.
Vitoria have beaten Internacional at home for three consecutive seasons now and I don't see an Internacional side playing tonight that is capable of rectifying that record. For that to happen, they're going to need goalkeeper Renan in top form, midfield duo Andrezinho and D'Alessandro in top form, and striker Rafael Sobis back to his best and I personally feel all of the above are rather a long shot. Vitoria are always solid at home because of the united front that they present so for me, this game has the hallmarks of a scrappy but valuable home win for Vitoria against continentally-hungover Internacional.
Verdict: Vitoria to win at 13/10.
Atletico Paranaense vs Ceara - home win at 9/10.
This one's considerably easier to write about - one good home side against one very poor side! Simple! No defeats in three games for Atletico gives them the momentum to do well tonight, particularly as they've won two of those games and kept two clean sheets along the way. They've played Santos, Sao Paulo, Flamengo, and Gremio in their last four games and have won twice and drawn twice, which should give you some indication as to how good they are at home. They don't score enough goals in general but a weak Ceara side should play a part there. I know statistics show that Ceara are a strong defensive unit but that was under their first and second manager respectively. Their third manager of this season is attempting a more suicidal attacking football. It's a respectable aim, I admit, but it's a foolhardy one because Ceara are really a very poor side. Look upon them as a type of Stoke City of the Brazilian Serie A and you'll know what I mean (and that's no insult to Stoke, incidentally!) - if they abandon their defensive shape, they get ripped apart. Their attacking football paid dividends at home to Gremio in a 2-1 win but that's the only time it's worked with Botafogo beating them since than and a weak Gremio Prudente claiming a 2-2 draw at Ceara last match. I basically expect Ceara to attack Atletico tonight and as Atletico are a better side, I fancy them to make the most of it. The odds are a tad lower than I'd hoped but I still like the win as Atletico's goalscoring problems should be resolved by Ceara coming out of their shell and attacking so I expect a home win tonight. With the above in mind, over 2.5 goals at 21/20 also looks intriguing despite contradicting statistics!
Verdict: Atletico Paranaense to win at 9/10.
Ferencvaros vs Gyori ETO FC - home win at 6/5.
This is a risky call but I'm banking on Ferencvaros' pride doing a lot of damage here. Ferencvaros are the biggest Hungarian side by a mile and their determination to be back at the top of the Soproni Liga is massive, as their active interest in the transfer market showed over summer. The acquisition of Czech attacker Marek Heinz was an inspired one both for his experience and ability and he's shown glimpses of his ability for Ferencvaros already this season, happily. Serbian midfielder Stanic was signed from Disogyori VTK after an impressive campaign too so Ferencvaros haven't exactly rested on their laurels having avoided relegation after their first season back in the top flight of Hungarian football. Their battling spirit and intense support often gives them an extra man so you'll rarely find me going against Ferencvaros. However, those two aspects combined can also result in Ferencvaros losing a man, as it proved in the derby at home to Budapest Honved lately, where the afore-mentioned Stanic was dismissed in Ferencvaros' only defeat of the season thus far. Although Ferencvaros' defence is questionable, their attack rarely is as they've proven by scoring at least once in all of their games so far this season so my only doubt here is whether they'll outscore their opponents or not, although a draw at impressive Fehervar last match has certainly done enough to convince me that they're a lot more capable this season than they were last season.
It aids my bet that Gyori ETO FC have had European committments for some time now because their squad is looking rather stretched. Finding an adequate replacement for departed Estonian midfielder/striker Tarmo Kink has proved tricky, as has the departure of midfielder Jozsi to their hosts today. Gyori ETO FC still have a very capable squad and their strength has always been defence so the challenge is for Ferencvaros to shatter it today. However, given that Gyori have only just returned from Croatia to play their fourth game in twelve days, you have to fancy the visitors to be a little jaded here. Their overall domestic displays this season have looked rather jaded and understandably so - European football has to be their priority. However, despite Gyori's defence looking about as strong as usual, their attack doesn't look as threatening and with tiredness sure to be a factor here, I find it hard to be very concerned about Gyori today, as dangerous as that could prove to be.
Ferencvaros beat title candidates Gyori ETO FC 1-0 here last season and in general have a very strong home record against their visitors today, a record that stretches back to the 90's so the hosts know how to beat the pretenders to what they believe is their throne. Ferencvaros are strengthening year by year and it shouldn't be too long before they're competing with Debreceni VSC, Gyori ETO FC, and Fehervar for the Soproni Liga title. Visitors Gyori ETO FC are finding life in the spotlight a little harder than normal and a trip to volatile Ferencvaros at this stage of the season should be considered rather unwelcome. I therefore think that the odds on the home win are decent value although this should be a close game nonetheless.
Verdict: Ferencvaros to win at 6/5.
Recommended bets:
Singles only today, guys - I don't like any multiples, unfortunately!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!
Copa Sudamericana:
River Plate Montevideo vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 2-1
Trujillanos vs Atletico Huila (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Brazilian Serie A:
Vitoria vs Internacional (6) 2-1
Gremio vs Guarani (4) 1-1
Gremio Prudente vs Botafogo (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Goias vs Atletico Mineiro (5) under 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo (6) 1-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Ceara (7) over 2.5 goals
Fluminense vs Palmeiras (7) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Lombard Papa (5) over 2.5 goals
Ferencvaros vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Beijing Guoan vs Tampines Rovers (7) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Superettan:
Angelholm vs Assyriska Sodertalje (4) draw no bet
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Aragua vs Deportivo Lara (5) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Oriente Petrolero vs Universidad de Chile
Today's featured game is the Copa Sudamericana game in Bolivia between Oriente Petrolero and Universidad de Chile. With thetie finely poised following a surprise 2-2 draw in Chile, we look set to have a good and very much "samba" game between these two sides tonight!
This is Oriente Petrolero's first ever experience on the continent and they've handled themselves well thus far, claiming an extremely impressive 2-2 draw in the first leg of this tie. Universidad are a very strong side, especially at home, so it surprised me an awful lot when a frankly inferior side managed to take something from a trip there. That in itself is a warning that Oriente Petrolero are very serious about this competition so I'll give them the respect that they've earned for tonight's games. Domestically, Oriente Petrolero have only lost twice in twenty consecutive home games and those games were against bitter rivals Blooming Santa Cruz and Aurora Cochabamba, two of the more successful Bolivian sides nowadays so it's far from a bad record. Indeed, Oriente Petrolero have won fifteen of those games and haven't actually lost at home to anyone but Blooming and Aurora since February 2009, which I think is pretty damn impressive. This side were once nobodies; they clearly have no intention of letting that remain the case for much longer. They're not shy with their cash either, signing the likes of Uruguayan striker Jorge Ramirez from Atenas, Argentinian defender Alejandro Schiapparelli from Bolivar La Paz, and Paraguayan midfielder Francisco Benitez from Real Mamore in a bid to boost their squad and its worked wonders with Oriente Petrolero rapidly ascending through Bolivian ranks to being one of the better sides in the country. Promising striker Alcides Pena has linked up well with Uruguayan striker Jorge Ramirez with both players scoring goals for fun this season and it'll be interesting to see how they fare at home to an experienced continental opponent tonight if Pena is ruled fit enough to play. Midfielder Joselito Vaca will be key for Oriente Petrolero as he's one of the few players they have to have played outside South America and thus has key experience for the side. The other key player in that aspect is Saucedo, who isn't long back from a spell with Chernomorets Odessa. He openly confessed to being happy there but the Ukrainian side opted not to sign him so he returned to Oriente Petrolero. Argentinian manager Gustavo Quintero made a brave move to rest players at Real Mamore last match by sending a second string but he was left without option after Real Mamore refused Oriente Petrolero's proposal to move the game. As a result, he does have a full-strength side to select from tonight and I fancy them as a result with such a good set of players at their disposal, not to mention with the game being played at approximately 1,500 metres above sea level.
I'm a big advocate of the tenacious Universidad de Chile but it almost looks like their Copa Libertadores Semi-Final defeat against Mexican outfit Guadalajara has impacted them mentally because they looked rather abject in the first leg of this tie. Domestically, they're back to basics, but on the continent they appear a little more hesitant than they were previously. Universidad are a side that I always associate tenacity and belief with and yet the side lacked both in their usual doses in the first leg so I'm not sure how they're planning to progress tonight. Royas and midfield general Iturra were rested in their last game at home to Santiago Wanderers but an alarming number of Universidad's first string played in that game, which confirms my opinion that Universidad are being a little cocky and may become complacent as a result. Their manager Gerardo Pelusso has already stated his confidence at qualifying for the next round despite playing a difficult game at high altitude as the club have never lost outside Chile. Either he's stupid or he meant this year because Universidad certainly have lost outside of Chile; just not since 2009. They're a very experienced side, Universidad, and it takes a lot for me to against them in any continental competition as a result. They really are a very good side and they travel a lot better than most continental sides. However, with most of their first team in action just a few days ago and now facing a trip to a high altitude venue, I can't see them doing as well here as their manager seems to think they will. Universidad have won in Bolivia before but Oriente Petrolero is something of an "unknown" away game as they've never played in this competition before and in my experience, that's never a good thing to take lightly. The hosts obviously have some money behind them and they're creating a very strong squad, not to mention they seem more determined than Universidad tonight to qualify for the latter stages of the competition so I do fear for the Chilean side tonight.
This game should be a lot closer than most games between Bolivian sides and their respective opponents in continental competition because the altitude favours the hosts and Oriente Petrolero actually bring some quality into this game, unlike their Bolivian counterparts. Universidad are a very strong side but this is a tough game for them, particularly as they have to attack and this is no height to be excessively running around or tiredness and even sickness can kick in after a while. As weak as Bolivian sides are in general when compared to the remainder of South America, they have a strong home advantage in general that often serves them well so they're not to be underestimated here. Ultimately, I just don't see Oriente Petrolero losing this game tonight. I can accept a draw but for a side to win in Bolivia, they have to play very well indeed and I just don't think Universidad have prepared well enough to do so, especially when you consider the measures that the hosts have taken to prepare for this game. Therefore, my recommendation is to take the home win with draw no bet tonight with the hope that the arising Bolivian side fulfills their potential and plays a good tactical game to incorporate their altitude advantage into their strategy.
Either way, let's hope this game ends much better for the hosts than their last game did a few days ago at Real Mamore. They lost the game 3-2 with a second-string, as you'd expect, but the referee was bombarded with water bottles at the end of the game by the home fans because they were unhappy with his display and he was escorted off the premises with police protection. That kind of activity in this game would no doubt see Oriente Petrolero expelled from the competition so let's pray they have more sense than their Bolivian counterparts did last match!
Verdict: Oriente Petrolero to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Tuesday's Picks
My tips:
The only other game I like today is:
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Penarol - home win at evens.
Barcelona Guayaquil enter this game on the back of a very impressive 1-0 win at El Nacional Quito so will understandably bring some momentum into this game. They have the advantage over Penarol of being mid-season domestically and having already played two games in this competition against Peru's Universidad Cesar Vallejo, impressively winning both in Peru and in Ecuador with apparent ease. They miss De Jesus in defence for this game following his intelligent dismissal at the end of their home encounter with Universidad Cesar Vallejo and that is a blow for them. However, the goals of Paraguayan striker Samudio should give their opponents more to think about in their own defence rather than making holes in the Barcelona defence. Manager Llop has named the following squad for the home game with Penarol:
Banguera, Viteri, Cevallos, Perlaza, Hurtado, Nazareno, Hidalgo, Oyola, Noir, Rodriguez, Bolanos, Prette, Samudio, Palacios, Garces, Leon, Montenegro, Anagono, Valdivieso.
As I touched upon earlier - Barcelona are only missing De Jesus and boast a full squad aside from that so are well-placed to make their presence felt tonight. Liga de Quito have ensured that Ecuador has become a terrifying place to visit over the past few years and Deportivo Quito have done their best to enhance that reputation, not to mention Barcelona's bitter rivals Emelec Guayaquil. Barcelona now have their long overdue chance to make themselves heard and with match fitness and home advantage favouring them, not to mention high altitude, you have to favour the hosts tonight.
Much like hosts Barcelona, Penarol are a big side in their respective country. Also much like Barcelona, they've been ousted from continental competition for far too long and at least half the country of Uruguay is excited to see them back in action. However, they're going to have some problems tonight, in my opinion. The first one is that they've not played a competitive game of football in approximately three months. To go to Ecuador of all places with that lack of match practice and to get a result is a tad ludicrous, in my humble opinion - a trip to Ecuador should never be taken lightly. Penarol have their two domestic games with Mirimar Misiones and Montevideo Wanderers postponed as they frolicked around with Real Madrid in a friendly and generally pissed around awaiting this fixture, which again is a bad move! I have an awful lot of respect for Penarol as a club with their proud history and relentless support. However, I don't feel they've prepared anywhere near well enough for this game and it really could come back to bite them in the ass tonight. They've brought both of their strike duo Martinuccio and Ramis to Ecuador, although I doubt they'll both start. They've brought former Internazionale midfielder/striker Antonio Pacheco to Ecuador, which is a massive boost for Penarol as he's their best and arguably most experienced player. This whole Penarol squad has a lot of talent in both youth and experience but in a tough venue like the Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo at high altitude, I doubt we'll get chance to see them shine, particularly with no competitive match practice to assist them.
Juan Pedro Damiani has named the below squad to take to Ecuador:
Sosa, Hernandez, Alcoba, G.Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Albin, Corujo, Sosa, Pacheco, Alonso, Palacios, Estoyanoff, Martinuccio, Domingo, Rios, Alvez, Collazo, Aguirregaray, D.Rodriguez, Ramis.
As you can see, Penarol take a very strong squad to Barcelona with the notable inclusion of new signing Fabian Estoyanoff, who some of you may recall from his time in Spain with Cadiz, Deportivo La Coruna, and Real Valladolid. Having failed to make it out there, he moved to Panionios in Greece and had a good season before returning back to Uruguay. He's too good to be playing in Uruguay so he'll be a valuable acquisition for their squad, I'm sure.
Bluntly; Penarol aren't short of ability but they are short on match practice and they're at a very tough venue against a tough side. With that in mind, I really don't fancy them to do well tonight. I've composed a list of the most recent Uruguayan clubs to visit Ecuador in the past two years below so you can see how they generally fare:
2010 - Copa Libertadores - Deportivo Quito 2 Cerro 1
2010 - Copa Libertadores - Deportivo Cuenca 0 Club Nacional de Montevideo 0
2010 - Copa Libertadores - Emelec Guayaquil 1 Cerro 2
2009 - Copa Sudamericana - Liga de Quito 7 River Plate Montevideo 0
2008 - Copa Libertadoes - Deportivo Cuenca 0 Danubio 0
As you can see, Uruguayan clubs rarely win here and tend to be content with a draw. A draw is a possible outcome here and 1/2 on the home win with draw no bet is an acceptable price. However, given Penarol's lack of match practice, I'm more inclined to go for the straight home win at evens because Barcelona have more than enough in their favour to win this game tonight, especially as they know they'll struggle in Uruguay in the second leg.
Verdict: Barcelona Guayaquil to win at evens.
Aside from the above, nothing else interests me today because there are few games due to the approaching international fixtures. However, to see my thoughts on the remainder of today's games, see below!
Copa Sudamericana:
Oriente Petrolero vs Universidad de Chile (5) 2-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Penarol (7) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Geylang United (7) 2-1
Woodlands Wellington vs Home United (7) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!
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