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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in Russia between Spartak Moscow and AFC Ajax Amsterdam. With the tie finely poised following a somewhat surprising 0-1 Spartak victory in Amsterdam a short while ago, you have to expect an entertaining game today as a result.
I’m not even sure to the current day how Spartak won that game against Ajax. I’ve said plenty of times over the past couple of months that Ajax have problems scoring goals, which is perfectly true. However, the amazing amount of luck that Spartak had not only with Ajax missing chances, not only with taking one of the very few chances that they actually had, but also the fact that their goalkeeper Dikan had the game of his life was just unbelievable. Don’t get me wrong here – Spartak do have some talented individuals, especially in the budding partnership between Brazilian duo Ari and Welliton in attack. However, Spartak are not the force that they once were when Titov, Tikhonov, Kalinichenko, and Bestchakhnykh patrolled the scene and Swiss outfit Basel exposed that over both legs of their tie with the Russian giants. Since their triumphant return from the Netherlands, Spartak had a tricky game at Rostov-na-Donu, which they approached far too complacently and were duly punished in a 4-0 defeat.
What that shows is how different Spartak Moscow can actually be. They’re not bad enough to lose 4-0 at Rostov-na-Donu but they’re not good enough to win 0-1 at Ajax either; there’s a place in between those two results that gives a much more accurate indication of where Spartak are at currently. They’re generally a frustrating side with Karpin liking his team to play a patient passing game but they seem to forget that from time to time and explode with a flambuoyant display and concede a lot of goals. They absolutely detest being dragged into open games, which is why they were on the cusp of being knocked out by Basel of Switzerland and you saw how badly they reacted to Ajax doing the same thing so I think they’ll struggle tonight, even if the temperature and pitch suits them more than Ajax.
My biggest problem with Ajax, as I mentioned earlier, is that they lack a consistent goalscorer. De Boer has done a good job there, in my view – Ajax are playing with far more spirit now than they were earlier this season and even their youthful naievty is being overcome at some points. However, they badly need a striker who can put the ball in the net or they’re going to struggle a lot over the coming years, especially with De Boer having fallen out with El Hamdaoui, who is likely to leave the club in summer. Their midfield is good and their defence is decent too but their attack doesn’t create enough goals. However, the dominating way in which they played against Spartak in the first leg say that they’ll at least score once in this game because I cannot envision Spartak repeating that immense defensive display, even if Pareja does boss the show. The bad news for Ajax ahead of this game is that goalkeeper Stekelenburg has broken his finger and given that he bails out his rather inexperienced defence a lot on the European stage, I think that they’ll miss him a lot today.
Let’s face it – Ajax have to attack here and they must surely score at least once this time as Spartak aren’t good enough to keep them out for two games in a row, in my vew. However, attacking leaves gaps that Spartak’s pacey counter-attacks can exploit so I suspect they’ll score at least once too, especially with Stekelenburg absent for Ajax. For me, over 2.5 goals is priced quite generously at evens as it should only take a single goal to burst this game into life so my call is over 2.5 goals here.
Team news – AFC Ajax Amsterdam miss Stekelenburg and El Hamdaoui.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Follow the latest betting odds comparison on this event at www.OddsPortal.com!
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Manchester City vs Dynamo Kiev – both teams to score at evens.
I tried this bet in the first leg in Ukraine but City weren’t keen on co-operating. However, in front of their own fans, they have to produce the goods today or they’re out – it’s as simple as that.
The odds on City winning this game seem a bit short to me, however. They’ve got some excellent individuals, admittedly, but this is their third game in seven days now and on the back of a congested fixture schedule which saw them lose various players due to injury, I just don’t think they’ll find it easy here. Kiev are very much a threat under Semin and demonstrated that numerous times during the first leg. They looked immaculate in attack with Shevchenko’s experience, Milevskiy’s skill, and Yarmolenko’s pace doing a lot of damage. Milevskiy unfortunately misses this game for the visitors but with Guilherme in the team for this game, it’s fair to say that Kiev do have adequate cover here.
City haven’t failed to score in any of their UEFA Europa League home games this season and that’s not something I expect to change here. Kiev’s defence is decent but far from unbreakable so the likes of Tevez and Silva should find a way through ultimately. City have lacked leadership and defensive organisation without the suspended Toure, however, and that may cost them again today. Kiev have some very good players in their team, especially from a creative perspective, and that makes them a very dangerous side here, especially as City’s defence continues to look shaky without their captain, and especially if calamitous Lescott plays!
For me, I think both sides scoring in this game is priced a little too generously with the above in mind and given how convincing Kiev have attacked under Semin’s second spell in charge of the club so my call is both sides to score at evens.
Team news – Manchester City miss Kolo Toure and have doubts over Johnson, Milner, and De Jong whereas Dynamo Kiev miss Milevskiy.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Twente Enschede – home win with -1.5 handicap at 7/5.
In my view, the first leg result flattered Twente. I think they took their chances well but Zenit were wasteful and caught out due to defensive absences. However, games at Petrovsky are very different and let’s face it – the better of these two sides are playing on a difficult frozen surface (something which Twente manager Michel Preud’homme has already commented on the difficulty of) that they’re used to and at freezing temperatures so Zenit do have the advantage here. Twente have some good players but Zenit are still better than they are, in my view, so Zenit realistically should at the very least win this game. I cannot see Twente playing adventurously because with a three-goal lead against the best side in the tournament, it would really be tempting fate. Therefore, we should see plenty of Zenit attacks and goals, especially with Kerzhakov and Bukharov both reportedly back for the hosts. Danny has a big job on his hands today but you know he’s good enough to do it. I don’t honestly know if Zenit will progress here - their manager and team are excellent and they can score goals here but there’s a mightily big deficit to overturn and just one Twente goal can ruin their hopes so I fear for the Russian hosts here. However, odds of 7/5 on Zenit beating the -1.5 handicap on their own turf against a defensive Twente appeals to me here as they need to score at least three goals to have a chance of progressing so my call is a Zenit win with -1.5 here.
Team news – Zenit St.Petersburg miss Hubocan whereas Twente Enschede miss Ruiz and Douglas.
Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to beat the -1.5 handicap at 7/5.
Follow the latest betting odds comparison on this event at www.OddsPortal.com!
Rangers vs PSV Eindhoven – Dzsudzsak to score anytime at 2/1.
I’m not going to be drawn into the 1×2 market here because frankly this game could go either way, although backing PSV to progress at 1/2 does appeal to me somewhat.
However, one bet that does appeal to me is backing talented Hungarian midfielder Dzsudzsak to score anytime at 2/1. PSV struggled to break Rangers down in the first leg due to their dogged defensive display and despite largely dominating proceedings, they couldn’t find a way through. Fred Rutten is a smart coach though – I’m confident he’ll have focused on PSV’s midfield for this game in an attempt to progress and PSV’s midfield is effectively Dzsudzsak nowadays with his creativity and ability to score goals.
My predominant reasoning behind this selection is his free-kicks, however. It’s going to be another mammoth struggle for the two battling sides on display tonight and it’s going to take something special or ridiculous to break the deadlock and for me, it has to come from this man. He makes things happen and his set piece ability is excellent so I think this bet is worth a cheeky punt tonight.
Team news - Rangers miss Jelavic, McCulloch, Ness, and Broadfoot whilst having doubts over Naismith.
Verdict: Dzsudzsak to score anytime 2/1.
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Guarani Asuncion – home win to nil at 4/5.
The -1.5 handicap appealed to me at first until I saw that ex-River Plate striker Gaston Fernandez missed the game through injury and then promptly changed my mind as he’s a rather instrumental attacking figure for Estudiantes!
In addition to the above, this game is not being played at a usual ground for Estudiantes. As you probably know, Jorge Hirsch is being renovated so Estudiantes are playing their home games at Quilmes’ ground for the current campaign but their stadium isn’t suitable for Copa Libertadores football so Estudiantes are forced to use the Estadio Ciudad de la Plata. You might think that this is a neutral venue but no – Estudiantes actually own the stadium along with bitter rivals Gimnasia de la Plata – but neither of them play there. Confused? You should be - I sure am!
Anyway – even without manager Sabella, Estudiantes are still a strong unit, especially in defence, so they shouldn’t have great issues here. Estudiantes won 1-2 in Paraguay a week ago without any great trouble and a similar feat should be achieved here, in my view. Guarani missed a trick by selling integral attacking midfielder Fabbro to bitter rivals Cerro Porteno and also by selling star Brazilian striker Alex Teixeira to Barcelona Guayaquil as it’s really hampered Guarani’s attacking ability and it’s shown in every game this season, in my view. It’s hurting them a lot because they’re not good defensively nowadays and both of those features have shown in the Copa Libertadores so far, conceding six goals and scoring once in three games.
With the above in mind, you can see why I fancy the hosts for this one. Estudiantes are the better side and although Fernandez will be missed, the support of Barrientos and possibly Veron from midfield should almost certainly see them win the game. However, with Guarani yet to register an away gaol in the competition this season, I don’t see them getting a result in Argentina tonight. Estudiantes are some distance from firing on all cylinders – they’ve got some distance to go – but they should ease to victory here by controlling the ball and eventually taking their chances. Therefore, my call is for Estudiantes to win this game without conceding at 4/5, especially with Guarani missing a few players.
Team news – Estudiantes De La Plata miss Gaston Fernandez, Rodrigo Brana, Matias Sarulyte, Diego Auzqui, Dylan Gissi, and German Re whereas Guarani Asuncion miss Fabio Escobar, Osvaldo Hobecker, Micael Modinger, and Hector Carballo.
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win to nil at 4/5.
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Oriente Petrolero – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Atletico Junior are somehow 1/3 to win this game and I’ve no idea how. I admit that they’ve impressed me in the current Copa Libertadores campaign by taking their chances and playing well both at home and away from home but they’re not a goalscoring side by nature and like all Colombian clubs, they don’t play well as favourites, more often than not. Instinct tells me that the odds on this game are based upon the atypical displays of Bolivian teams on the road because the altitude drop usually cripples them. However, that’s not the case here – Oriente Petrolero don’t play at altitude and nor do Atletico Junior, for that matter, so this game is a lot more even than it looks. Oriente play some good attacking football for a Bolivian side and I’d not be too quick to write them off here. I expect them to give their hosts a tough game as I genuinely don’t believe there’s as much between them as the odds suggest that there is, although Junior’s defence is unquestionably stronger. Considering that actually scoring goals is Oriente’s biggest problem (despite attacking well) and that Junior like to sit on leads with their solid defence, I think under 2.5 goals at evens looks a far better call than any other bet in this game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Zenit St.Petersburg, Estudiantes De La Plata.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today – sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
Paris Saint-Germain vs SL Benfica (5) 0-0
Manchester City vs Dynamo Kiev (6) 2-1
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Twente Enschede (8) -1.5 handicap
Spartak Moscow vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (4) over 2.5 goals
Porto vs CSKA Moscow (5) 1-1
Rangers vs PSV Eindhoven (5) 1-2
Villarreal CF vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6) over 2.5 goals
Liverpool vs Sporting Braga (6) under 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Guarani Asuncion (8) 2-0
Liga de Quito vs Penarol (7) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Oriente Petrolero (6) under 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Etoile (6) 1-2
Balestier Khalsa vs Armed Forces (6) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!
