Today’s featured game is the Asian Champions League encounter between Uzbek champions Bunyodkor and Saudi Arabian champions Al Ittihad. Hosts Bunyodkor are rapidly becoming infamous across Asian football due to their large financial backing, something illustrated by the fact that world cup winning coach Luiz Felipe Scolari is in charge there. Al Ittihad are experienced campaigners in the Asian Champions League and have some good ability too so we should have a good game on our hands today.
Bunyodkor’s domestic record is fantastic. It doesn’t reflect much upon this game but any side that can play in thirty domestic games whilst winning twenty-eight and drawing twice deserves recognition! Bunyodkor’s financial situation is largely the reasoning behind their continued success and the signing of players such as Rivaldo and Denilson (as veteran as they’re rapidly becoming) emphasises my point. They’ve kept some Uzbek players in their line-up but have brought in some foreigners to improve their game and it appears to have paid off with a lot of consistency in recent times. Bunyodkor’s record in this competition over the past couple of years has been good. They’ve won seven out of nine home games since first arriving on the Asian Champions League scene and have drawn the other two games, leaving them unbeaten at home in this competition. They’ve beaten both Saudi sides that have visited here during their tenure in the Asian Champions League – Al Ittifar and Al Ittihad – with the latter being the Ubzek hosts’ opponents today. Bunyodkor are very consistent at home with their home advantage, prolific goalscoring and regular clean sheets so its always a good idea to back them on their own turf.
Visitors Al Ittihad come from one of the better leagues in Asian football so I respect their position as champions moreso than I do that of Bunyodkor’s. However, they’re really struggling in their attempt to regain their title this season as they’re currently third-placed in the table. They’ve lost three out of ten away games, which is more than any of the other top four clubs in Saudi Arabia currently, and clearly aren’t as convincing as they were last season. Al Ittihad had a very good campaign in the Asian Champions League last season and won some very impressive away games against the likes of Japan’s Nagoya Grampus and Qatar’s Umm Salal. However, they don’t have good memories of their trips to Uzbekistan with defeat on their last trip to Bunyodkor and a draw with Bunyodkor’s regular title rivals Pakhtakor Tashkent so it’s safe to say that the Saudis don’t enjoy their time here!
Neither side has played competitive football for a while although the Uzbek hosts haven’t played for longer with their season running on a different axis to the Saudi Arabian League. However, the hosts are traditionally strong at home both domestically and on the continent. Sides know this and have started to fear their ruthlessly efficient football style. Al Ittihad don’t enjoy their trips to Uzbekistan and haven’t been as good as they should be on the road domestically this season so I feel that taking the home win has more value than the bookies’ odds suggest today.
Verdict: Bunyodkur to win at 9/10.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Girondins de Bordeaux – away win at 6/4.
It’s always risky business going against Greek sides at home in European football. I’m not sure how they do it but they’re usually very hard to beat, particularly the two giants of the league – Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus. I got burned by backing AS Roma to win at Panathinaikos last week in the UEFA Europa League but I wasn’t as surprised as I should have been; Italian sides often disappoint in Europe nowadays. I’m hoping that this call will bear considerably more fruit than the disappointing Italians did!
Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to convince me in Europe this season. They’ve looked a little lacking in potency more than anything. Their general performances are solid enough but their goalscoring isn’t what it used to be. They’ve gone through various different managers this season and it’s taken its toll on their performances both domestically and in Europe and those problems don’t appear to have been solved now after a disappointing 1-1 draw at Ergotelis at weekend. You can look to their UEFA Champions League record and point out that they’ve won all three home games and that’s why I do urge caution. What I would say on the back of that statistic, however, is that their win against Arsenal was against the run of play as they were largely outplayed for large periods, their win against Standard de Liege was fortunate with a last minute winner after initally falling behind, and their win at home to AZ Alkmaar was again due to a late goal. I’d have expected a lot more from Olympiakos in at least two of their games because rest assured that if Bordeaux score in this game then I really fancy them to keep Olympiakos out on this season’s showing. Hell, Olympiakos only managed to score one at home to Moldova’s moneybags Sheriff Tiraspol in the UEFA Champions League Qualifier this season so it shows how prone they can be at home.
Visitors Girondins de Bordeaux have been a revelation in the UEFA Champions League this season. Their relentless efficiency and defensive prowess left Italian giants Juventus and German giants Bayern Munich trailing in their wake. Bordeaux won their group at a canter and only failed to win once, which was a perfectly acceptable (and even impressive) draw in Turin against Juventus. Bordeaux climed back-to-back victories against Bayern Munich whilst only conceding once along the way but scoring four times. They scored nine times overall in the group but conceded just twice, which was massively impressive and shows the tremendous influence that Laurent Blanc has on the side as a former world-class defender himself. Let’s be honest here – Bordeaux have a couple of classy players but a lot of decent players – they’ve simply got an outstanding manager so they’re doing very well. Domestically, Bordeaux are also performing well and in a similar fashion as their defence is the best in the league.
Laurent Blanc has promised an “attacking display”. I think he’s a cracking manager but I think he’s a liar! Bordeaux will either win this game narrowly or take a draw back to France – they will not take on Olympiakos man-for-man as the hosts have more individual talents than they do. Olympiakos are missing Dudu & Diogo but their injury list has lessened of late so they’re gradually getting back to full-strength. Bordeaux are only missing Planus and midfielder Plasil is a doubt but otherwise are at full-strength.
Ultimately, although I could accept a draw in this game, I do think that there’s value on the away win. Greece is a tough away trip for any side but there aren’t many (if indeed any) better sides tactically in the UEFA Champions League currently that Girondins de Bordeaux, in my opinion, so it should be an interesting game. I expect a low-scoring game but Bordeaux are very much capable of winning this game.
Verdict: Girondins de Bordeaux to win at 6/4.
SL Benfica vs Hertha HSC Berlin – lay SL Benfica at 9/4.
Far too many people are backing SL Benfica to win this game and I’m uncomfortable with that idea because it either means that I’m way out of tune here and I’m going against the masses or that there’s a lot of idiots. Hmmm!
Anyway, SL Benfica are a side I’ve enjoyed watching this season. They’ve been attacking well and been incredibly potent and remind me a little of the SL Benfica side of old so fair play to them. However, I have to admit that it’s their performances domestically that impress me more than their European performances because their tactics aren’t great and they aren’t as prolific. Of course there are exceptions to this i.e. their 5-0 win at home to Everton although I largely attribute that to a stretched and weakened Everton side. Aside from this game, have they really convinced this season? They laboured a 2-1 win against a poor AEK Athens and they struggled to beat Belarus’ BATE Borisov 2-0. Of course you can argue that they did win those games – of course they did so that cannot be ignored. However, I don’t honestly think they’ve been properly tested yet. Their trip to Hertha HSC Berlin last week showed that a side that is playing well defensively can deal with their attack. This would not be evident in Portugal often because few sides are competent in defence in the Liga Sagres although their one proper test saw Benfica fall when they travelled to Sporting Braga and lost. There’s no doubt whatsoever that SL Benfica are capable of scoring a lot of goals against the vast majority of opponents but I’ve just not been convinced by them this season, particularly not lately domestically with an unconvincing low-scoring win at home to bottom club Belenenses and a draw at relegation-threatened Vitoria Setubal.
Visitors Hertha HSC Berlin have entered a rejuvenated phase of their season lately and it’s doing them the world of good. An emphatic 3-0 win at SC Freiburg in their last Bundesliga game finally cast away their shackles in terms of potency and they re-emerged as a good side again. They’re a capable side; they have been all season – they’ve just not found the right formula until now. They’ve only lost once in their last seven games and that was a tough trip to Werder Bremen with the hosts only just managing to overcome the visitors 2-1 in that game despite a plucky display. Hertha have kept four clean sheets in those seven games and have only conceded a goal per game for two of the other games so their defence is looking very solid. Their goalscoring ability comes in dribs and drabs but when it does they sure know how to score. They won 3-0 at Hannover 96 and 3-0 at SC Freiburg lately, taking their tally of goals scored on the road to seven in three games, so I think writing off Hertha BSC Berlin because of their league placing is frankly perilous.
I rate the German league as a very tactical league, which is in sharp contrast to the Portuguese league. I think Hertha are far better tactically than Benfica and with momentum siding with the Germans I genuinely feel they’ve got a much better chance of taking something here than the bookies and most people do. I could be wrong and it could be 3-0 in thirty minutes but I don’t think Hertha will lose this game in ninety minutes tonight due to their astute defensive displays of late, displays which tend to mean that Benfica struggle.
Verdict: Lay SL Benfica at 9/4.
Internacional vs Emelec Guayaquil – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
A lot of people tend to have the impression that Brazilian sides are the best in South America and I can understand that perception and even partially agree with it but there’s far more to it than that. Brazilian sides have a tendency to struggle against sides with defensive strength despite boasting lots of invidually talented players. A good example would be International’s home games with Universidad de Chile and Universidad Catolica in last season’s Copa Sudamericana where Internacional drew both times. I rate Chilean sides as the most tenacious in South America but that’s beside the point – my point is that Brazilian sides struggle in this kind of situation so it’ll be interesting to see how Internacional fare tonight. Brazilian sides are capable of tearing most South American sides apart, don’t get me wrong, but they’re not up to the standard of some other countries in South America when it comes to tactics and this can be their Achilles heel.
Internacional are one of Serie A’s better sides and have shown it in recent times. However, they tend to struggle on the continent most likely for the reasons that I’ve listed above – they struggle to break sides down. Internacional are much better at home than they are away in any competition so I do expect a good display from them in this game. However, an interesting fact for you all is that Internacional’s last six home games on the continent all resulted in a scoreline of under 2.5 goals with the exception of one 4-0 win against Mexico’s Guadalajara. Why would this have changed? Internacional still have a similar calibre of player but have failed to convince in their State Championships this season despite facing sides of considerably less ability than themselves i.e. Avenida, Esportivo. Internacional may have won those games but they’re not scoring many goals. Their only tough game was a game against bitter rivals Gremio and that unsurprisingly ended with under 2.5 goals. Summarised; Internacional struggle against defensively-sound opponents and I would put Emelec Guayaquil in that bracket currently.
Despite losing 3-0 to Internacional on their last visit, Ecuadorians Emelec Guayaquil have matured a lot since then. They’ve become a reliable force in the Primera A and have already scored seven times in three domestic games this season. Emelec have proven their maturity on the continent by claiming an impressive 0-0 draw at Argentinian outfit Newell’s Old Boys before taking them back to Ecuador and winning 2-1. Ecuadorian sides don’t tend to travel well but Emelec are in a good position to change that tonight. They’ve had a good six days to prepare for this game and will take good momentum into this game so I expect them to put in a good solid display tonight, which should be enough to keep Internacional at bay for the most part.
Internacional have been playing weaker sides so they’re not at the top of their game yet. Emelec will come here with damage limitation in mind considering how susceptible Internacional are in failing to beat defensively-strong sides at home and they may even take a draw from this game. However , whatever the outcome, this game has under 2.5 goals written all over it at bargain odds in my opinion.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Morelia vs Club Nacional de Montevideo – home win at 4/5.
Morelia demonstrated in their opening Copa Libertadores that they meant business with a good performance at Argentina’s Banfield. Despite losing the game the Mexicans did enough to impress me and convince me that this competition meant something to them unlike the majority of Mexican sides. I’m a little concerned that Morelia may be affected by their recent domestic form – a draw at home to Toluca and defeat at out-of-sorts Cruz Azul – but believe that their home advantage and defensive strength will do them proud tonight. Morelia are yet to concede a single goal in three domestic games at home but have notched up five goals along the way so they’re a relatively efficient home side. I like that they tend to score and keep their opponents out so I’ll give their recent form dip the benefit of the doubt and presume that they’ll make an appearance tonight.
Visitors Club Nacional de Montevideo are one of the more experienced sides in the Copa Libertadores and have a cult reputation as one of the best home sides on the continent. However, like most sides in South America, they do struggle on the road sometimes, which is something I’m partially relying on tonight. Unfortunately, their experience in this competition is strong and they do better away from home than the average side in this competition but nonetheless a difficult away game remains a difficult away game in this competition and the trip from Uruguay to Mexico is one of the longest that you can make within this competition. Despite their experience, however, I’m placing a lot of faith in their recent poor showings. They struggled to beat Ecuador’s Deportivo Cuenca at home in their opening Copa Libertadores game, needing a late penalty to secure a 3-2 win, and were annihlated 4-1 at home by River Plate Montevideo, which is frankly a scandalous result for the hosts and will have harmed their morale considerably. Nacional are conceding too many goals of late and I think that will hurt them on their lengthy trip north, particularly as they’ll struggle to break through a resolute Morelia defence.
We should see a good game between these two sides due to various contrasts in experience and style but I think that the home win does have value considering Nacional’s displays lately and Morelia’s defensive prowess.
Verdict: Morelia to win at 4/5.
Al Jazira vs Al Gharafa – home win at 11/10.
Al Jazira don’t have the best of records in this competition with five draws and one win during their campaign last season. Comfortingly, they managed to score in the majority of their games and sides found it hard to beat them so they’re capable of doing damage today. Al Jazira were runners-up domestically last season but were the most prolific side at home in the division with an average of nearly three goals scored per home game and nine wins from twelve games so they’ve advanced following their runners-up placing from the season before. I suspect the experience in the Asian Champions League assisted them greatly and they’re now more complete as a side as a result. Al Jazira have proven themselves to be a competent side in my eyes and have enough of what it takes to win today.
Visitors Al Gharafa have also progressed this season despite ending last season as champions. They only won five out of twelve away games last season in their domestic campaign but have already bettered that record this season with six wins in nine games. Despite their progression, however, Qatari sides do tend to struggle in this competition and Al Gharafa were a fine example of that last season as they crashed to five defeats in six Asian Champions League games. They lost all three away games – one in Uzbekistan against Pakhtakor Tashkent, one in Iran against Persepolis, and one in Saudi Arabia against Al Shabab – and conceded six goals along the way whilst scoring just once. Those trips aren’t easy trips but the Qatari side’s inexperience was a consistent hamstring and their ability on the road was proven to be non-existant as Qatari football found itself further behind more of its rivals than it anticipated.
Although this has the potential to be a low-scoring game between two average sides, Al Jazira have proven themselves to be a more competent force in this competition and are potent enough to take three points from this game today.
Verdict: Al Jazira to win at 11/10.
Walsall vs Yeovil Town – home win at 5/6.
Walsall have won three out of their last four League One games so their momentum is good. The fact that they’ve only lost four out of sixteen home games this season in the League One tells us that they’re a force at home although the fact that they’ve only won five of them also tells us that they’re not efficient enough. Nonetheless, Walsall have lost just once in seven games and have conceded just four times along the way so their defence is holding firm, which helps them massively as Walsall don’t score many. Walsall have been particularly good on the road of late recording impressive wins at strong home sides like Bristol Rovers and Leeds United so they’ve taken a massive boost morale-wise. They beat in-form Brentford 2-1 at home in their last game so Walsall are in good shape entering this game and have a very good chance of improving their rather unimpressive home form tonight.
Visitors Yeovil Town have been poor on the road this season with nine defeats in sixteen games, winning just twice along the way. They average conceding nearly two goals per away game and average scoring less than a goal per away game. They’ve been especially poor of late with three defeats in their last five games. Yeovil’s big problems of late largely stem from their lack of goals scored. Apart from a 4-1 win at relegation-battlers Wycombe Wanderers, Yeovil haven’t scored in any of their last five games, losing three times and drawing once. They’ve played three tough games consecutively and now face another one so I envision another goalless night for Yeovil ahead.
With Walsall scoring and in good form and Yeovil devoid of momentum and goals at the moment, you have to feel that there’s value in the home win today.
Verdict: Walsall to win at 5/6.
Wycombe Wanderers vs Southampton – away win at 5/6.
Despite some bizarrely impressive displays of late Wycombe Wanderers remain a strong relegation candidate due to a lack of quality. They’ve won at Bristol Rovers, drawn at Brentford, and even won at home to Millwall in recent times but Bristol Rovers were in atrocious form at the time, Brentford aren’t as good as their league placing indicates and Millwall are a poor away side so these results can be accounted for. The result that catches my attention is one that Wycombe cannot explain; a 4-1 defeat at home inflicted by Yeovil Town. The result simply wasn’t good enough and it was a clear example of how easily Wycombe can be taken apart with the right application. The hosts will battle and battle so they’re worthy of respect ahead of this game but they’ve not got the quality to match their opponents today, in my opinion.
Visitors Southampton have drawn too many games in League One recently but a massively impressive win at high-flying Norwich City will have given them a lot of morale as well as momentum. Southampton have now won two out of their last three League One games so they’re starting to become the force that they’re very much capable of being. They’ve got the players to be a threat and the fact that they’ve only lost four out of sixteen away games this season emphasises that they’re a tough nut to crack. Interestingly enough, Southampton are now the second-highest goalscoring side on the road in League One so potency has never been an issue; just defending has.
Ultimately, Southampton are a better side than Wycombe and they’ve got enough in their favour to show that tonight. Their goalscoring should be too much for a poor Wycombe Wanderers and I expect a narrow away win as a result.
Verdict: Southampton to win at 5/6.
Accrington Stanley vs Burton Albion – home win at evens.
Accrington Stanley enter this game on the back of a 2-0 win at home to Bradford City so they’ve ended their three-game winless run swiftly. They’ve now won eight out of thirteen League Two games at home this season and have proven to be better than the average opponents that they come across. They average scoring two goals per home game and although they’re a little lax defensively they still tend to make it count. They’ve won four out of their last five home games with only a very in-form Bury taking points off Accrington Stanley here and Bury had to score four goals to overcome a resilient Accrington 4-2. Therefore, Accrington are consistently strong at home and I expect them to make life very hard indeed for Burton Albion tonight.
I’m still not convinced by newly-promoted Burton Albion. They score a lot of goals, to their credit, but they concede so many that it can be hard to know where to go with them. However, Burton managed to lose 2-0 at home to Accrington this season already so they’ve proven that they know how to lose this game. I can’t deny that Burton’s three wins in their last five games have impressed me, as has their potent style on the road. However, I would argue that they’ve faced poor sides and have conceded heavily against those poor sides so should struggle against a good side tonight. Burton have lost seven out of sixteen away games this season so being outclassed isn’t an unfamiliar position for them to be in and I expect another display of that tonight.
I expect a lot of goals in an open game between these two sides but Accrington are just too good for Burton, particularly at home, so I think the home win is an absolute bargain tonight.
Verdict: Accrington Stanley to win at evens.
Aldershot Town vs Dagenham & Redbridge – home win at evens.
Aldershot Town are yet another traditionally strong home side in League Two with eight wins in fifteen games, losing just once at home this season. They average scoring over two goals per home game and are extremely reliable on their own turf. Aldershot drew their last home game with Notts County, which is an acceptable result. Prior to that result, Aldershot had won four out of their last five League Two games at home so they’re usually reliable on their own turf. They’ve disappointed in recent times so I’m a tad dubious about them but they should smell the blood of a weakened Dagenham side and be hungry for the overdue win tonight.
Visitors Dagenham are one of the better sides in this division, not that they’re showing it currently. With seven defeats in their last nine League Two games Dagenham are looking particularly unconvincing and short on morale. Their only wins have come at home and their displays have been clearly goal-shy. They’ve scored just five times in their last nine games and have lost their last four away games consecutively, failing to win any of their away games in their last six attempts. Dagenham are seemingly bereft of creativity and potency at the moment and would be game for anyone to beat, let alone a strong home side like Aldershot Town so the hosts have to be a good bet tonight.
Verdict: Aldershot Town to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Barcelona, Kashima Antlers, Jeonbuk Motors, Colchester United, Norwich City, Swindon Town, Bury, Bournemouth, Rochdale.
Recommended bets:
Kashima Antlers, Bunyodkor, Jeonbuk Motors, and Barcelona at 5/1.
Walsall, Swindon Town, Bury, and Manchester United at 5/1.
Accrington Stanley, Norwich City, Colchester United, and Bournemouth at 7/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
VFB Stuttgart vs Barcelona (7) over 2.5 goals
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 0-1
UEFA Europa League:
SL Benfica vs Hertha HSC Berlin (4) 1-1
Copa Libertadores:
Deportivo Italia vs Velez Sarsfield (6) 1-1
Internacional vs Emelec Guayaquil (7) under 2.5 goals
Morelia vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (6) 2-1
Asian Champions League:
Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma vs Kawasaki Frontale (5) 1-1
Kashima Antlers vs Changchun Yatai (9) 3-1
Bunyodkor vs Al Ittihad (7) 1-0
Beijing Guoan vs Melbourne Victory (5) 1-1
Persipura Jayapura vs Jeonbuk Motors (9) -1.75 handicap
Zob Ahan vs Al Wahda (6) under 2.5 goals
Al Jazira vs Al Gharafa (6) 2-1
Al Ahli vs Esteghlal (7) 2-0
English Premier League:
Manchester United vs West Ham United (8) both sides to score
English Championship:
Scunthorpe United vs Ipswich Town (6)
Doncaster Rovers vs Leicester City (7)
English League One:
Charlton Athletic vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6)
Colchester United vs Brentford (8) under 2.5 goals
Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers (7)
Gillingham vs Leyton Orient (5) under 2.5 goals
Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United (5)
Leeds United vs Oldham Athletic (6)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Millwall (5)
Norwich City vs Southend United (8)
Swindon Town vs Stockport County (9) over 2.5 goals
Tranmere Rovers vs Huddersfield Town (4)
Walsall vs Yeovil Town (7)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Southampton (7)
English League Two:
Accrington Stanley vs Burton Albion (7) over 2.5 goals
Aldershot Town vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6)
Bournemouth vs Barnet (8)
Bury vs Morecambe (8)
Cheltenham Town vs Torquay United (4)
Crewe Alexandra vs Chesterfield (6)
Darlington vs Notts County (4)
Grimsby Town vs Macclesfield Town (6)
Hereford United vs Northampton Town (5)
Port Vale vs Lincoln City (6)
Rochdale vs Bradford City (8)
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Prestatyn Town (5) 1-1
Newi Cefn Druids vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!