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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA European Champions League game in German between Dortmund and Arsenal.
A lot of people are tipping a Dortmund win here and maybe they will; football is a funny old game sometimes. I don’t see the value in taking it myself; the only aspect of the 1×2 market here that appeals to me is a cheeky bet on Arsenal to win because Dortmund have not impressed me so far this season. They’ve got some great players, t’s true – Kagawa and Gotze are the stand-out names for me. However, the loss of Sahin is something that Dortmund have not yet come to terms with. Gundogan has potential, as does Perisic, but Sahin has not yet been replaced and it is affecting Dortmund’s game
That said, they still have attacking talent and against arguably the most vulnerable Arsenal defence we’ve seen for some time, you’d have to expect the hosts to score, especially at a daunting Signal Iduna stadium. Arsenal’s inexperience shows in every game with calamitous defending and even hit-and-miss Dortmund should be able to capitalise on that ultimately.
However, Arsenal have threats of their own in Van Persie, who is terrific striker, when he’s not on the sidelines! Walcott is actually developing some consistency and Arsenal have signed two great playmakers in the transfer window in Arteta and Benayoun so don’t doubt their ability here. I’m surprised we’ve not seen young Japanese attacker Miyaichi yet, actually – he was immense at Feyenoord Rotterdam last season. They’ve made some astute signings lately, Arsenal, especially in battling Korean forward Park and I rate Arsenal a lot more than most do right now as a result. Hell, I’ve not even mentioned world-class Arshavin yet due to his on-and-off form but his ability is unquestionable. Arsenal’s defence is poor, I can’t deny it – they’ll concede in more games than they won’t until they become more stable. However, from an attacking perspective, this side is very dangerous.
I’ve heard a lot about how “Arsenal only beat Swansea City 1-0 at weekend” but precious little about how Hertha BSC Berlin won at 1-2 at Dortmund at weekend. Neither side is in a great place right now and both are conceding silly goals or playing badly at the back. For me, taking both sides to score here is the only way to approach the game.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
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Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Viktoria Plzen vs BATE Borisov – lay Viktoria Plzen at 4/5.
I’ve been a big advocate of Viktoria Plzen in the UEFA Champions League Qualifiers this season because they’ve been very underestimated. However, I’m not going to make the mistake of over-estimating them as a lot of people seem to be doing right now.
Plzen have been hit-and-miss far too often this season, even slipping onto the side of “lucky” like in the home game with Rosenborg BK. They’ve got some great attacking talents in their squad, admittedly, with Kolar being their best one, in my eyes. Jiracek, Horvath, Pilar, and Petrzela – they’re all threats, though. However, the sale of Rezek pre-season has left Plzen with average strikers and that’s going to hurt them in big competitions like this where it is most evident. Their defence isn’t stable anymore either, as can be noted by the fact that they’ve already conceded three home goals in two games in the Champions League. I’d also point to the fact that Rosenborg have been crap for a while and Copenhagen don’t look right under their new boss. Credit to Plzen for how they’ve played; they love being the underdogs and surprising teams. However, they’re in the unusual position of being favourites in a huge game and I don’t know how they’re going to handle that – it didn’t go too well for them in their 0-2 defeat against Sparta Prague lately.
BATE Borisov, on the other hand, are the epitome of expercience and composure. They’re very efficient and well-organised, which makes them hard to break down. They’ve got two terrific attacking players in striker Rodinov and playmaker Renan. Hell, they even signed experienced Serbian hitman Mateja Kezman lately, although I couldn’t say if he’s eligible to even play in this game or not. Kontsevoy is a threat in attack and Skavysh has potential. The return of captain Likthorovich is a big boost for Goncharenko’s boys as he prowls the central midfield area, which is where Plzen are strong. They’ve looked more solid at the back since Simic joined BATE and Filipenko has looked good at the back this season too. Their big losses in the windw were in-form wide man Nekhajchik and defender Shitov, both of which joined Russian monyebags Dinamo Moscow. That is far from ideal for BATE as both were regulars but they’re still a good unit with plenty of depth. Importantly, they’re a very experienced European side nowadays – they’ve been in the Champions League for a lot of years now. In the Champions League so far this season, they’re conceded just once in three away games and they’re rarely discarded easily in this competition anymore. BATE play good football and I rate them as the better side here, hence me not grasping the odds.
So yeah – nervous hosts versus experienced opponents. There’s nothing “banker” about this one but I think there’s a better chance of it happening than the bookies do. Plzen are too short here against a good BATE side so laying the hosts looks interesting today.
Verdict: Lay Viktoria Plzen at 4/5.
Why not bet on this game now at one of the best bookmakers around?
Accumulator fodder:
Liga de Quito, Levadia Tallinn, Sillamae Kalev, Tran Narva.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Racing Genk vs Valencia CF (7) 1-2
Chelsea vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (7) 2-0
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Olympique de Marseille (4) 0-1
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Arsenal (6) 1-1
Porto vs Shakhtar Donetsk (4) 1-1
APOEL Nicosia vs Zenit St.Petersburg (7) 0-0
Barcelona vs AC Milan (8) over 2.5 goals
Viktoria Plzen vs BATE Borisov (5) 0-1
Copa Sudamericana:
Liga de Quito vs Trujillanos (8) 2-0
Universidad de Chile vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
La Equidad Bogota vs Libertad Asuncion (5) 0-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
Argentinos Juniors vs Atletico Lanus (5) 0-0
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente Medellin vs Real Cartagena (6) 1-0
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportes Tolima (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportes Quindio (6) 1-0
Atletico Huila vs Deportivo Pereira (5) 2-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (6) 1-1 Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Envigado (7) 2-0
English League Cup:
Charlton Athletic vs Preston North End (7) 2-1
Crystal Palace vs Wigan Athletic (5) 1-2
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Trans Narva vs Viljandi (9) -1.5 handicap
Flora Paide vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (5) 1-2
Ajax Lasnamae vs Levadia Tallinn (10) -1.5 handicap
Kuressaare vs Sillamae Kalev (8) 0-2
Flora Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju (5) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Gulbene 2005 (7) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Klaipeda vs Suduva Marijampole (7) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Geylang United (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!
