Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Arsenal

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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA European Champions League game in German between Dortmund and Arsenal.

A lot of people are tipping a Dortmund win here and maybe they will; football is a funny old game sometimes. I don’t see the value in taking it myself; the only aspect of the 1×2 market here that appeals to me is a cheeky bet on Arsenal to win because Dortmund have not impressed me so far this season. They’ve got some great players, t’s true – Kagawa and Gotze are the stand-out names for me. However, the loss of Sahin is something that Dortmund have not yet come to terms with. Gundogan has potential, as does Perisic, but Sahin has not yet been replaced and it is affecting Dortmund’s game

That said, they still have attacking talent and against arguably the most vulnerable Arsenal defence we’ve seen for some time, you’d have to expect the hosts to score, especially at a daunting Signal Iduna stadium. Arsenal’s inexperience shows in every game with calamitous defending and even hit-and-miss Dortmund should be able to capitalise on that ultimately.

However, Arsenal have threats of their own in Van Persie, who is terrific striker, when he’s not on the sidelines! Walcott is actually developing some consistency and Arsenal have signed two great playmakers in the transfer window in Arteta and Benayoun so don’t doubt their ability here. I’m surprised we’ve not seen young Japanese attacker Miyaichi yet, actually – he was immense at Feyenoord Rotterdam last season. They’ve made some astute signings lately, Arsenal, especially in battling Korean forward Park and I rate Arsenal a lot more than most do right now as a result. Hell, I’ve not even mentioned world-class Arshavin yet due to his on-and-off form but his ability is unquestionable. Arsenal’s defence is poor, I can’t deny it – they’ll concede in more games than they won’t until they become more stable. However, from an attacking perspective, this side is very dangerous.

I’ve heard a lot about how “Arsenal only beat Swansea City 1-0 at weekend” but precious little about how Hertha BSC Berlin won at 1-2 at Dortmund at weekend. Neither side is in a great place right now and both are conceding silly goals or playing badly at the back. For me, taking both sides to score here is the only way to approach the game.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.

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Tuesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Viktoria Plzen vs BATE Borisov – lay Viktoria Plzen at 4/5.

I’ve been a big advocate of Viktoria Plzen in the UEFA Champions League Qualifiers this season because they’ve been very underestimated. However, I’m not going to make the mistake of over-estimating them as a lot of people seem to be doing right now.

Plzen have been hit-and-miss far too often this season, even slipping onto the side of “lucky” like in the home game with Rosenborg BK. They’ve got some great attacking talents in their squad, admittedly, with Kolar being their best one, in my eyes. Jiracek, Horvath, Pilar, and Petrzela – they’re all threats, though. However, the sale of Rezek pre-season has left Plzen with average strikers and that’s going to hurt them in big competitions like this where it is most evident. Their defence isn’t stable anymore either, as can be noted by the fact that they’ve already conceded three home goals in two games in the Champions League. I’d also point to the fact that Rosenborg have been crap for a while and Copenhagen don’t look right under their new boss. Credit to Plzen for how they’ve played; they love being the underdogs and surprising teams. However, they’re in the unusual position of being favourites in a huge game and I don’t know how they’re going to handle that – it didn’t go too well for them in their 0-2 defeat against Sparta Prague lately.

BATE Borisov, on the other hand, are the epitome of expercience and composure. They’re very efficient and well-organised, which makes them hard to break down. They’ve got two terrific attacking players in striker Rodinov and playmaker Renan. Hell, they even signed experienced Serbian hitman Mateja Kezman lately, although I couldn’t say if he’s eligible to even play in this game or not. Kontsevoy is a threat in attack and Skavysh has potential. The return of captain Likthorovich is a big boost for Goncharenko’s boys as he prowls the central midfield area, which is where Plzen are strong. They’ve looked more solid at the back since Simic joined BATE and Filipenko has looked good at the back this season too. Their big losses in the windw were in-form wide man Nekhajchik and defender Shitov, both of which joined Russian monyebags Dinamo Moscow. That is far from ideal for BATE as both were regulars but they’re still a good unit with plenty of depth. Importantly, they’re a very experienced European side nowadays – they’ve been in the Champions League for a lot of years now. In the Champions League so far this season, they’re conceded just once in three away games and they’re rarely discarded easily in this competition anymore. BATE play good football and I rate them as the better side here, hence me not grasping the odds.

So yeah – nervous hosts versus experienced opponents. There’s nothing “banker” about this one but I think there’s a better chance of it happening than the bookies do. Plzen are too short here against a good BATE side so laying the hosts looks interesting today.

Verdict: Lay Viktoria Plzen at 4/5.

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Accumulator fodder:

Liga de Quito, Levadia Tallinn, Sillamae Kalev, Tran Narva.

Recommended bets:

No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

UEFA Champions League:

Racing Genk vs Valencia CF (7) 1-2
Chelsea vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (7) 2-0
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Olympique de Marseille (4) 0-1
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Arsenal (6) 1-1
Porto vs Shakhtar Donetsk (4) 1-1
APOEL Nicosia vs Zenit St.Petersburg (7) 0-0
Barcelona vs AC Milan (8) over 2.5 goals
Viktoria Plzen vs BATE Borisov (5) 0-1

Copa Sudamericana:

Liga de Quito vs Trujillanos (8) 2-0
Universidad de Chile vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
La Equidad Bogota vs Libertad Asuncion (5) 0-0

Argentinian Primera Division:

Argentinos Juniors vs Atletico Lanus (5) 0-0

Colombian Primera A:

Independiente Medellin vs Real Cartagena (6) 1-0
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportes Tolima (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportes Quindio (6) 1-0
Atletico Huila vs Deportivo Pereira (5) 2-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (6) 1-1 Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Envigado (7) 2-0

English League Cup:

Charlton Athletic vs Preston North End (7) 2-1
Crystal Palace vs Wigan Athletic (5) 1-2

Estonian Meistriliiga:

Trans Narva vs Viljandi (9) -1.5 handicap
Flora Paide vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (5) 1-2
Ajax Lasnamae vs Levadia Tallinn (10) -1.5 handicap
Kuressaare vs Sillamae Kalev (8) 0-2
Flora Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju (5) 1-1

Latvian Virsliga:

Liepajas Metalurgs vs Gulbene 2005 (7) 2-1

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Klaipeda vs Suduva Marijampole (7) 0-1

Singaporean S-League:

Gombak United vs Geylang United (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal

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Today’s secondary featured game is the English Premier League game between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal. This derby should be more fiercely-contested than ever with the gap in quality between them very minimal nowadays and given Manchester United’s slip-up at Newcastle United last match, Arsenal may just see a small window of opportunity if they beat their bitter rivals.

Spurs have their eyes firmly fixed upon a UEFA Champions League place, however, and to do that they must beat Arsenal tonight to keep the heat on Manchester City. They play good attacking football, as we all know, and with a midfield containing Modric, van der Vaart, Lennon, and Bale, you have to feel there’s more than enough in their team to do damage against Arsenal tonight. Van der Vaart has been somewhat out-of-form lately but even so, we all know how good he is at scoring important goals. Spurs are only really missing midfield engine Palacios tonight – barring his inclusion, their injury list is a lot shorter than normal. Spurs fans will no doubt want to gloat over bitter Arsenal rivals by adding their heroic 2-3 victory at The Emirates earlier this season so we should see an enthused Spurs display tonight.

As I touched upon briefly before, however, Arsenal should share that spirit as United slipped up last night, which does give Arsenal a faint glimmer of hope. However, it seems Arsenal are about as out-of-luck as I am at the moment with everything that can go against them going against them. Some of it is down to them bottling it and some of it is purely bad luck but they’ve drawn three consecutive games that they should really have won so they need to pick themselves up here for the north London derby or they could face further embarassment from their local rivals. Ironically, Arsenal’s dip in form has come at a time when almost all of their team is fit again – it’s almost like they do better with less options available to them! On a more serious note, however – Van Persie, Nasri, and Fabregas are all capable of producing that something special and they’ll relish playing in the derby, as ever. Therefore, I think we’ll see Arsenal try and turn the heat up here – they’ve definitely got the firepower to do so.

There’s a lot at stake for both teams here and a draw doesn’t really help either of them. Given that both sides play attacking football and prioritise scoring goals over avoiding defeat, I have to favour over 2.5 goals at 3/4 tonight.

Team news – Tottenham Hotspur miss Hutton, Palacios, Woodgate, and King whilst having doubts over Kranjcar and Pienaar whereas Arsenal miss Fabianski, Mannone, and Vermaelen.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.

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Wednesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Levadia Tallinn vs Siauliai – under 2.5 goals at evens.

I can’t really fathom these odds, to be honest! Siauliai are marginally better than Levadia Tallinn but since Levadia sold almost all of their talented attacking players and since Siauliai aren’t converting their dominance into goals on a consistent basis, I simply cannot fathom how the odds for under 2.5 goals here are so generous. The game ended 0-0 when played in Lithuania lately with both of the afore-mentioned coming into play heavily and I thoroughly expect more of the same today. Levadia are much more experienced than Siauliai are in this tournament but they’ve sold a lot of their experienced players so it’s basically Nahk versus Siauliai here! Siauliai need to learn to convert their chances, which they’re just not doing, so I think we’ve got a classic under 2.5 goals game here at good odds.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.

Servette
vs Vaduz – home win at 13/10.

It’s a huge game in the Challenge League for Servette tonight and they club knows it, hence their “buy one ticket and get one free” offer at the moment!

A 6-2 drubbing of FC Schaffhausen and a somewhat surprising win at Lausanne Sports lately has rekindled promotion hopes for Challenge League giants Servette and that momentum will be key here. However, with seven games remaining and an eight point gap between the hosts and second-placed Vaduz, this is a must-win game for Servette or they’ll effectively condemn themselves to another year in the Challenge League. They’re playing well at the moment, however, and despite their susceptible defence, their attack is amongst the strongest in the division. Eudis and De Azevedo form one of the most deadly partnerships in the Challenge League and that’s basically why Servette have only failed to score once at home in the current campaign, which was in a game against league leaders Lugano, unsurprisingly. Hell, Servette have scored a minimum of three goals per home game for six out of their last seven home games so you can see how dangerous this side truly is and with momentum behind them, I fancy them to do well tonight.

Are Servette better than Vaduz? There’s very little in it – it’s mostly decided by form, team news, and most of all – luck. However, Vaduz are in a downward spiral currently following a poor 1-1 draw at out-of-form Delemont before crashing and burning in style at home to Stade Nyonnais, losing an unbelievable 1-5 at the Rheinpark Stadion. I’ve never seen such a one-sided result by a side away from home when their hosts are so much better and I don’t expect to see it to such a degree again either. Everything that could go wrong for Vaduz went wrong for them with poor defending, stupid individual errors, and just a general lack of cohesion. Missing Cerrone and Oehrl in defence can explain a portion of it as they’re two instrumental figures at the back. However, Cerrone returns from suspension for this game although Oehrl is still out injured, which does harm Vaduz’s defence. Joining him on the sidelines is emerging young attacker Hasler, which is a notable absence from the Vaduz attack. Merenda and Sabia are capable enough strikers but Vaduz aren’t giving them the appropriate service currently and that’s a dangerous way to play football, as Vaduz are discovering. Their display last match reeked of complacency and they have to show up in Geneva or they’re going to find that their comfortable lead over Servette becomes a rather small five points and then they’ll be shitting themselves!

As I said earlier, there isn’t much between these two sides so do approach it with caution. However, taking into account form, absences, and the fact that Vaduz have lost four out of their last six meetings against Servette, I think that the home win at 13/10 is worthy of your consideration today.

Team news – Vaduz miss Oehrl, Sturm, and Hasler.

Verdict: Servette to win at 13/10.

Accumulator fodder:

Shandong Luneng, Al Ittihad, Chelsea, NSI Runavik, Celtic, Partizan Belgrade, Red Star Belgrade, Vojvodina Novi Sad, Malmo FF, Basel.

Recommended bets:

Servette, Chelsea, and Celtic at 2/1.

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Copa Libertadores:

Santos vs Deportivo Tachira (6) 2-1
Colo Colo vs Cerro Porteno (4) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs America (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Argentinos Juniors vs Fluminense (5) 1-0

Asian Champions League:

Shandong Luneng vs Arema Malang (8) 2-0
Melbourne Victory vs Tianjin Teda (6) 1-1
Gamba Osaka vs Jeju United (6) 2-1
Jeonbuk Motors vs Cerezo Osaka (7) 1-0
Persepolis vs Bunyodkor (6) 0-0
Al Gharafa vs Sepahan (6) 0-1
Al Jazira vs Al Hilal (5) 1-2
Al Ittihad vs Al Wahda (8) 2-0

Baltic League:

Ekranas Panevezys vs Skonto Riga (6) 2-1
Levadia Tallinn vs Siauliai (6) 1-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Racing Genk vs Club Brugge (5) 1-1
AA Gent vs Anderlecht (6) 1-1

Colombian Primera A:

Deportes Quindio vs Deportivo Cali (6) 0-0
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Danish Superligaen:

Silkeborg vs SonderjyskE (5) 0-1
Aalborg BK vs Randers (6) 1-1

English Premier League:

Chelsea vs Birmingham City (8) 2-0
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Faroese Meistaradeildin:

NSI Runavik vs B68 Toftir (8) over 2.5 goals

International Friendly:

Argentina vs Ecuador (6) 1-0

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze (6) 1-0

Polish Liga 1:

Piast Gliwice vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz (6)

Scottish Premier League:

Kilmarnock vs Celtic (8) 1-2

Serbian Super Liga:

Spartak Subotica vs OFK Belgrade (4) 1-1
BSK Borca vs Cukaricki (8) 2-0
Smederevo vs Partizan Belgrade (8) 0-2
Borac Cacak vs Rad Belgrade (6) 0-0
Jagodina vs Metalac GM (6) 1-0
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Hajduk Kula (8) 2-0
Javor Ivanjica vs Indija (7) 1-0
Red Star Belgrade vs Sevojno (8) 2-1

Singaporean S-League:

Young Lions vs Home United (7) 0-2

Swedish Allsvenskan:

IFK Norrkoping vs Halmstad (5) 0-1
Malmo FF vs Mjallby Solvesborg (8) 2-0
Kalmar vs Elfsborg Boras (6) 0-0

Swiss Super League:

Grasshopper Zurich vs St.Gallen (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Luzern vs Thun (6) 1-0
Neuchatel Xamax vs Basel (8) 1-2

Swiss Challenge League:

Servette vs Vaduz (6)

Enjoy your free betting tips!