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Frosinone vs Atalanta Bergamo

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Today’s secondary featured game is between Frosinone and Atalanta Bergamo in Italy’s Serie B. A cursive glance at the league table may suggest that this should be a straightforward away win but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a straightforward away win in this division so be wary here!

Frosinone are bottom of the table and the departure of goalkeeper Brison is unlikely to have helped them much as only Piacenza have conceded more goals in Serie B than Frosinone have. Indeed, only a handful of sides have conceded more goals than Frosinone at home so it’s easy to see where the problem lies. Frosinone aren’t great in front of goal themselves, admittedly, but they do tend to get their token goals so it’s not the most pressing area for them to address, really. Frosinone have only lost four times at home in Serie B this season but the most notable characteristic of that fact is that they’ve lost to Livorno, Crotone, Reggina, and Empoli, all of which are top seven sides so they’ve unintentionally set themselves a “ceiling” at home this season. Frosinone will encounter a similar issue against Atalanta tonight as Atalanta are one of the best sides in Serie B, in my view, so they know that they have an uphill task ahead of them. To make matters worse for the hosts, they’re missing two essential defenders tonight – Terranova and Bocchetti - as well as experienced striker Santoruvo, regular midfielder Bottone, and what was formerly their back-up goalkeeper Sicignano. It’s hard enough to be in Frosinone’s position at this stage of the season but with some important players absent for this game, I don’t envision a good night ahead of them.

So the signs look good for an Atalanta win here, right? Well, partially, but don’t go throwing your life’s savings on this one. Atalanta have a better side than Frosinone – that much is beyond debate – but can they score the necessary quota of goals to make it count? Ironically, goalscoring has been Atalanta’s problem on the road this season with defending being their strongest area which is contradictory to their somewhat flambuoyant style. Goalscoring will be their issue tonnight too with strikers Rupolo and Tribocchi both absent for this game, which is a hefty blow for the visitors, who also miss star defender Troest. However, Atalanta have a full squad available to them aside from the afore-mentioned and that does mean that their excellent midfield is available to them, fortunately. Atalanta’s midfield should be able to dominate this game as they’re very strong and also as Frosinone miss Bottone tonight. Their midfield is going to have to be at its best too, if Atalanta have any intention of winning this game as they’re bereft of attackers tonight. To their credit, Atalanta have won more away games in Serie B than the bulk of the Serie B sides have this season so they know how to win away from home. However, the absence of strikers means that caution must be utilised here!

Away games in Serie B are not a favourite of mine to bet on and that’s because they don’t often happen. However, bottom club Frosinone are missing too many important players here, especially in defence, so I have to hand the advantage to Atalanta tonight. If their midfield create the necessary chance then the visitors should edge this one tonight so that’s my call for this game although I’d leave it if the odds drop further.

Team news – Frosinone miss Biasi, Biso, Bottone, Catacchini, Santoruvo, Sicignano, and Terranova whereas Atalanta Bergamo miss Rupolo, Troest, and Tribocchi.

Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to win at evens.

Monday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Alki vs Ethnikos Achnas – home win at 5/4.

Larnaca minnows Alki have to fancy their chances here after their unprecedented derby victory over AEK Larnaca as morale will be high in the camp. Alki are yet to register their first “home” win of the season, however, with nine attempts all failing. This is largely due to the fact that they’re still sharing Anorthosis Famagusta’s ground for the current campaign but it’s become a bit of a mental bugbear for them as time goes by so Alki need to utilise the momentum taken from their heroic win last match in this game to shake off the mental doubts that they’re having.

Since their win against AEK Larnaca, Alki have even won at Enosis Neon Paralimni in the Cypriot Cup, which has not only taken them to two consecutive wins but also means that they’ve now kept two clean sheets so they are a capable outfit on their day and it’s refreshing to see that they’re finally demonstrating it.

Alki’s record can be considered to be quite harsh on them, really. They’re not a great side – don’t get me wrong – but they’re a decent side and they’re hard to beat when they’re in-form so I’ll give them their due respect here.

Visitors Ethnikos Achnas are a side that has a reputation of being hard to beat too so we can expect a resilient game from them today. However, they do have problems when it comes to scoring goals and I’m hoping that Alki can exploit that weakness today by scoring the first goal as Ethnikos Achnas have failed to win every game this season in which they’ve fallen behind. However, I’d generally avoid this game due to the relative equality between these two sides so why the hell am I getting involved in this one? Simple – absences. Ethnikos Achnas not only miss important Brazilian midfielder Pincelli and regular Schlichting but they also miss key defender Miliutinovic. Ethnikos Achnas work very well as a unit but the problem is against Alki that they can’t function at the same level of their usual unit due to players being absent who cannot simply be replaced from a quality perspective – they can only be replaced by quantity – so I have my doubts over the away side today.

Do approach this one with caution as Alki’s mental issues surrounding their failure to win “at home” this season may make strange things happen but whilst the price on Alki is 5/4 or longer, I think there’s value in taking the home win today.

Team news – Ethnikos Achnas miss Pincelli, Schlichting, Miliutinovic, and Ivanoski.

Verdict: Alki to win at 5/4.

Accumulator fodder:

Brazil U20

Recommended bets:

No multiples appeal to me today guys – sorry!

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Copa Sudamericano U20:

Uruguay vs Colombia (5) 1-1
Argentina vs Ecuador (7) 1-0
Chile vs Brazil (8) over 2.5 goals

Cypriot Division 1:

Alki vs Ethnikos Achnas (6) under 2.5 goals

French Ligue 2:

Le Havre vs Chateauroux (6)

German Bundesliga 2:

Augsburg vs VfL Bochum (6)

Italian Serie B:

Frosinone vs Atalanta Bergamo (5)

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Den Bosch vs Fortuna Sittard (6) both sides to score
Go Ahead Eagles vs Veendam (5)
Almere City vs Sparta Rotterdam (6)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Helmond Sport (5)
MVV Maastricht vs Emmen (6) over 2.5 goals

Spanish Primera Liga:

Racing Santander vs Valencia CF (4) 1-1

Turkish Super Lig:

Eskisehirspor vs Konyaspor (6) 1-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Arsenal vs Liverpool

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Today’s featured game is the League Cup match between Arsenal and Liverpool. Just to remind you all (as if you didn’t already know!) that this is the shit trophy that nobody is particularly arsed about winning. What tends to happen is that all of the big four that can play a youthful side will then do so to give them experience. Obviously, the sides from the big four that can do this will do so, which basically excludes Chelsea, who haven’t had a good youth player since John Terry some ten years ago. This game at the Emirates Stadium shows a match-up that has been played many times over the past few seasons in various different competitions. However, the last time that Arsenal’s kids came up against Liverpool’s kids was at Anfield in 2007 where Arsenal’s kids trimphed 6-3, an extremely impressive scoreline considering that they were away from home. Arsene Wenger has long been reputed as one of the best talent scouts in the world (although bastards like me love to point out that he’s overlooked some gems he’s had on trial before now i.e. Zlatan Ibrahimovic) and I can only echo such sentiments although I’d argue his tactical finesse is a more substantial reason behind Arsenal’s persistent success in challenging for the title without having the resources to do it. What do I mean by that? I mean that some of Arsenal’s current “stars” wouldn’t get into any other side in the top seven clubs – it’s simply Arsene Wenger saying “You there! I want you to do this at this point and if you do not do that then you’ll be out of the squad” effectively because it works and he knows it. Take Diaby or Denilson, for example – neither of those two “stars” would get into any other big side in England because they’re just not good enough. Under Arsene Wenger’s machine, however, they look very good. Rafa Benitez is one of the late bloomers when it comes to producing youngsters as he’s tried rectifying Liverpool’s lack of academy produce in recent years but hasn’t successfully managed to achieve with it yet, although a few of his signings have caught my eye, namely Daniel Pacheco (former Barcelona striker), Andras Simon & Krisztian Nemeth (Hungarian strike duo from MTK Budapest), Mikel San Jose (defender poached from my beloved Athletic Club de Bilbao’s legendary Lezama academy) and Lauri Dalla Valle (Finnish playmaker signed from Jippo Joensuu – I’m entirely confident this his name is Finnish too – no trace of Italian heritage whatsoever(!)). However, these players are the future and not the present. Arsenal always have a wealth of talent emerging and this level tends to be the only level it’s shown it, either because the players move on when they become successful or because Arsenal’s first team don’t defend well enough for them to ever be successful in the Premier League again. Anyway, what I’m painstakingly trying to point out is not only that Arsenal have a better youth squad and that they’re at home but they’ve also battered Liverpool’s youngsters before in the League Cup. Effectively, the home win at 6/5 looks a real bargain for what could turn out to be a complete whitewash here.

Wednesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Arsenal vs Liverpool – home win at 6/5 – see introduction for full details.

SV Ried vs Wiener Neustadt – home win with -1.75 handicap at 6/4. This bet is one of three that I like in Austria today. SV Ried, as I’ve maintained for some time now, are one of the best home sides in the Austrian Bundesliga. This has been proven time and time again, most notably last season where they remained undefeated at home all season and this season where they’ve won three games, drawn once, and lost once in the five games they’ve played. If you don’t think that looks particularly impresssive, consider that they’ve hosted three of the “big four” of Austrian football – Rapid Vienna, Salzburg and Sturm Graz already. SV Ried are unbeaten in five games, winning twice and drawing three times. They earned a highly respectable draw at Salzburg last match and will have taken confidence and momentum from this game. Today they host Wiener Neustadt, one of the worst away sides in the Bundesliga currently. The newly-promoted side have lost four from five away games thus far, drawing the other game. More worryingly for the visitors, they’ve conceded over two goals per game on the road this season and haven’t scored enough goals for them to even claim a “goal per away game” ratio. They’re winless in four games, losing twice and drawing twice. To put it bluntly; Wiener Neustadt are going to play SV Ried on a ground where much bigger and better sides have been humbled before. Therefore, the home win with -1.75 handicap at 6/4 looks a great bet today!

LASK Linz vs Salzburg – away win at 3/4. Although I’m a little dubious about this call, I still feel it’s got enough potential to make it a worthwhile bet. LASK Linz have won four games from twelve games this season with all of them occurring during their six home games. They’ve lost just once at home so Salzburg are bidding to become the second side to win here this season. LASK Linz, despite being 7th in the Bundesliga, are the top goalscorers in the division with approximately 2.5 goals scored per game. Their goalscoring record at home shows they score approximately 3.5 goals per game, which is astonishing considering the number of problems the side has with winning games. LASK Linz are without a win in their last four games, drawing once and losing three times along the way. LASK Linz are big conceders, as you’ve probably already gathered from the above statistics. Although Salzburg have drawn and lost their last two games respectively, they remain the better side from these two outfits and have only lost two from six away games so far this season. What finally tipped the scale in Salzburg’s favour for me was the “voodoo sign” they have over LASK Linz as they’ve won all six of their last six encounters against the Linz-based outfit, two of which were at LASK Linz without even conceding a goal. Although it is quite a risky call, as I mentioned previously, I still believe the away win at 3/4 shows significant value today. 

Austria Karnten vs Rapid Vienna – away win with -1.75 handicap at 7/5. This bet is something of a no-brainer, really. Rapid Vienna are one of the best sides in the Bundesliga and will be keen to build on their 4-0 win against SV Mattersburg at weekend. They’ve won four of their last five games and scored an average of over two goals per game. Although their away form is somewhat inconclusive, they are playing against one of the worst sides in the Bundesliga – Austria Karnten. The hosts have won one game from twelve so far this season, losing three of their last five games and drawing the other two. They average conceding nearly three goals per game currently and look susceptible to being defeated by just about every opponent they encounter. Lastly, Rapid Vienna have beaten the -1.75 handicap in their last three encounters against the Bundesliga’s current bottom club. Therefore, taking the away win with -1.75 handicap at 7/5 could be a great bet here today!

Vitoria vs Corinthians – home win at 21/20. Neither of these two sides have anything left to play for this season and their recent lax attitude towards their performances have indicated that clearly with both sides claiming just one victory in five games. However, what has persuaded me to back a home win in this game is partially that Vitoria have proven to be a real force at home this season (ten wins from fifteen games, which is a record bettered only by Gremio) and that Corinthians have now lost two consecutive games, leaving them lacking in motivation and momentum entering this game. Corinthians have only managed two wins away from home all season and with the above information in mind, it looks unlikely they’ll claim a victory here. Corinthians have lost six away games this season but their biggest downfall has been their lack of goalscoring. On the road, Corinthians have managed to score just eleven goals in fifteen games, which is actually the lowest goalscoring record away from home in Serie A. Given that Vitoria average over two goals scored per game at home, you have to feel that the statistics indicating a home win here are most likely correct. With all the above in mind, 21/20 on the home win looks a good call tonight.

Gremio Barueri vs Flamengo – away win at 7/5. Although considered one of the stronger home sides in Serie A, I’m tipping Gremio Barueri to lose this one. They’ve won once in their last five games, drawing twice and losing twice. My main motivation for this game is their lack of motivation as they’ve got absolutely nothing left to play for. A few weeks back Flamengo were forced to field a drastically under-strength squad for some games due to injuries etc. Their season looked over at that point. However, since then they’ve gone on a rampage and have now won four of their last five games, including a highly impressive win at league leaders Palmeiras. Flamengo now find themselves just four points behind the league leaders with seven games remaining so this game is of great importance to the visitors. Although they’re not massively convincing away from home – like most Brazilian sides, really – I still think they’ve got the ability, momentum and motivation to win this game. I expect a close game with plenty of goals because Gremio Barueri are amongst the highest goalscorers in the league that won’t simply lie down for this game and they’re hosting a Flamengo side that very much need the points. Therefore, the away win at 7/5 could turn out to be a good bet tonight.

Helsingborgs vs Djurgardens – lay Helsingborgs at evens. This is a very risky call considering that Djurgardens are one of the worst away sides in the Allsvenskan. However, desperate times call for desperate measures and Djurgardens have been getting slightly better of late with just one defeat in three games, even winning a game along the way! The visitors absolutely need something from this game to maintain their beliefs that they can still be playing Allsvenskan football next season, albeit via a play-off against a Superettan side. Naturally, the above isn’t all I required to place this bet – I also required Helsingborgs be playing very badly, which they are. They’ve won just two games in their past eleven Allsvenskan games, leaving them looking short on goals and high on goals conceded. As I said earlier, this is a risky call but the above information makes evens on laying Helsingborgs today a potentially worthwhile call.

St.Gallen vs Grasshoppers Zurich – away win at 8/5. Grasshoppers Zurich have defied belief somewhat of late. Also virtually crucified with financial issues, a demoralised side and by having no real motivation to get themselves out of their mess, the squad have still managed to really come alive lately. They’ve unbeaten in four games now, winning three times and drawing once. They’ve even managed to overcome Young Boys Bern lately, who are the best side in the Super League, in my opinion. I don’t know quite how to explain it but I guess when you’ve got nothing to play for, you eventually reach a stage where you have nothing to lose so you all play free-flowing football with no worries and this can be the result. Grasshoppers Zurich have very strong momentum at the moment and although their away form is less than convincing currently, you have to favour them to win this game. Statistics show that St.Gallen are hard to beat at home, which normally means I’d leave this game alone in terms of betting. However, St.Gallen have now lost four consecutive games and the newly-promoted side are really struggling to come to terms with the Super League at the moment. There’s a big difference in momentum tonight, to be blunt, and the away win seems to bear good value as a result of that momentum at 8/5.

FC Zurich vs Basel - away win at 13/8. This is hard call for me to make as I believe FC Zurich are the better of these two sides nowadays. However, this game is one I can see being the result of European commitments but for varying reasons. FC Zurich have been forced to consider and even prioritise the UEFA Champions League, something they’re appearing in for the first time this year. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that since their group stage games started, FC Zurich have lost three Super League games and won just once. Before the victory at St.Gallen last match, FC Zurich had in fact lost three consecutive games, which isn’t nearly good enough for such a good side. Visitors Basel, however, have provided a spark for their otherwise stagnant season by overcome AS Roma of Italy in the UEFA Europa League. Since then, Basel have gone from strength to strength, even showing signs of recreating their former glory as they’ve won four consecutive league games, won at CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League without even conceding and having put up an extremely valiant fight at Fulham in England, also in the UEFA Europa League. Basel are playing better now than they have all season – their momentum is strong and they’re beginning to believe in the own ability again. FC Zurich are still looking very shaky, in my opinion, and will do well to win this game, particularly as they’ve actually managed to lose this fixture for three seasons running now. Although I expect this to be a close game, the away win at 11/8 does look inviting when you consider the above information.

As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!

Asian Champions League:

Nagoya Grampus vs Al Ittihad (8) 2-1
Umm Salal vs Pohang Steelers (5) 1-0

Baltic League:

Trans Narva vs Suduva Marijampole (6) 1-2
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Nomme Kalju (8) 2-0
Skonto Riga vs Sillamae Kalev (8) 3-1

Argentinian Primera Division:

Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-2
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Banfield (8) 1-1
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Arsenal de Sarandi (8) 2-0
Huracan vs Rosario Central (5) 0-0
Independiente vs Colon de Santa Fe (5) 2-1, draw no bet

Austrian Bundesliga:

SV Ried vs Wiener Neustadt (9) -1.75 handicap
LASK Linz vs Salzburg (7) over 2.5 goals
SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (8) 1-3
SV Mattersburg vs Sturm Graz (6) 2-3
Austria Karnten vs Rapid Vienna (8) -1.75 handicap, over 3.5 goals

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:

FC Smorgon vs BATE Borisov (9) 1-3

Brazilian Serie A:

Botafogo vs Nautico (7) 2-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Santos (6) 1-1
Gremio vs Avai (7) 1-0
Cruzeiro vs Santo Andre (9) 3-1
Vitoria vs Corinthians (7) 2-1
Gremio Barueri vs Flamengo (6) 0-1
Sao Paulo vs Internacional (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

English League Cup:

Manchester City vs Scunthorpe United (8) 2-1
Chelsea vs Bolton Wanderers (8) 2-0
Arsenal vs Liverpool (9) 3-1

Italian Serie A:

Bologna vs Siena (6) 1-0
Catania vs Chievo Verona (7) 1-1
Genoa vs Fiorentina (5) 2-1
Juventus vs Sampdoria (8) 2-0
Lazio vs Cagliari (6) 2-1
Livorno vs Atalanta Bergamo (6) 1-1
SSC Napoli vs AC Milan (5) 1-1
Parma vs Bari (6) 0-0
Udinese vs AS Roma (7) 1-1

Singaporean S-League:

Geylang United vs Young Lions (8) 2-0
Super Reds vs Home United (7) 2-1

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

DAC Dunajska Streda vs Slovan Bratislava (5) 1-1

Slovenian Prva Liga:

Koper vs Maribor (6) 1-1
Drava vs Gorica (6) 0-0
Interblock Ljubljana vs Nafta Lendava (4) 2-1
Domzale vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) 2-1
Celje vs Rudar Velenje (5) 1-0

Swedish Allsvenskan:

AIK Solna vs Orebro (9) under 2.5 goals
Orgryte vs Elfsborg Boras (6) 1-2
BK Hacken vs Gefle (7) 2-0
Helsingborgs vs Djurgardens (4) 1-1
Trelleborgs vs Hammarby (5) 1-1

Swiss Super League:

St.Gallen vs Grasshoppers Zurich (7) 1-2
Aarau vs Sion (7) 0-1
FC Zurich vs Basel (6) 1-2

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro (7) 2-1
Fenix vs Cerrito (5) 1-1
River Plate Montevideo vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Central Espanol (9) 3-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!