Hosts Athletic Club de Bilbao are something of a bogey side for Valencia with the visitors having only beaten them twice in their last ten meetings with five of those meetings being at the Mestalla. Athletic have won four out of the last five meetings between these two clubs and Valencia haven’t won at San Mames since 2006. This record in itself shows how hard sides find the trip to Bilbao and that does give Athletic even more confidence than normal. Occasionally this can backfire on them as they get overly passionate and have men sent off but overall I think it’s a good thing!

Athletic have virtually a full squad to choose from after their mid-week demolition of Austria Vienna. Aside from Aitor Ocio, who is out with a long-term injury, I can’t see that their other missing players are particularly big losses unless something else has occurred that I’ve not heard about! To my knowledge, it’s just Toquero, Koikili, Velez, and David Lopez. Lopez can make something happen but he’s not essential to the Athletic Bilbo process. Athletic have gone unbeaten in their last seven games in all competitions, winning three out of their last five and scoring twelve in those five games. To put it bluntly – Athletic certainly know how to find the back of the net!

Visitors Valencia are playing some of the best football in the division currently but they’re a very changeable side in the sense that they can turn from brilliant to atrocious in a single game. I’ve never been fond of backing Valencia away from home, particularly in the Basque country, but they’ve done extremely well away from home this season and will certainly test Athletic’s dodgy defence. Much like their hosts tonight, Valencia have won three of their last five competitive games and they too average scoring over two goals per game at the moment.  Valencia have won five out of their six away games in the Primera Liga this season so will certainly test Athletic’s resolve tonight. However, Valencia don’t tend to play well against physical sides and there are few sides more physical in Spain than Athletic are!

Although this should be an action-packed game with lots of goals, I’m backing Athletic to win the game and keep up their voodoo sign over Valencia. Athletic play very well at San Mames and their confidence is very high at the moment. Their momentum is strong and Valencia will have to work very hard to take anything from this game.

Incidentally, I don’t know why the bookies have made the odds of there being over 3.5 goals 2/1 as two out of the last three encounters between these two sides has beaten that and both sides are scoring goals for fun at the moment with both sides finding defence a somewhat alien word! Just a thought!

Verdict: Athletic Club de Bilbao to win with draw no bet odds of 5/4, over 3.5 goals at 2/1.

Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Velez Sarsfeld vs River Plate – home win at 4/5.

Hosts Velez Sarsfeld have returned to winning ways with back-to-back victories over Racing Club Avellaneda and Tigre. Although the title is looking unlikely now, the possibility is still there with the proviso that they win this game tonight. Velez have already won five out of seven home games this season, losing just once. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and no side in the Primera Division has conceded less goals than they have at home this season. Generally, Velez are a very efficient and reliable side who usually do just enough to win the game.

Visitors River Plate will be happy when this campaign is over with given the miserable run of games that has seen them win just three games out of sixteen. They are unbeaten in their last three games but two of those were against what I would label as really poor opposition. River Plate are capable of playing much better than they have and are but it’s simply not working out for them at the moment. They’ve already lost five out of eight away games this season and are tonight facing a side that is looking to replace them as one of Argentina’s leading clubs.

This has the potential to be a close game and will most likely be a low-scoring affair. However, the momentum and general cohesion of Velez Sarsfeld is a lot better than River Plate’s and they do look to have the upper hand in terms of which side is considered to be the better one at the moment. Both sides can go toe-to-toe on their respective days but Velez have more going for them tonight than River Plate do so I think a home win looks likely.

Verdict: Velez Sarsfeld to win at 4/5.

SV Ried vs Austria Vienna – home win at 5/4.

Although SV Ried let themselves down last match by failing to beat Mattersburg but will be highly motivated for the visit of one of Austria’s “big four”. SV Ried are unbeaten in their last three games and have won two of those so their momentum is still good. SV Ried have already won five out of eight home games this season, losing just once, so their fortress remains very much entact! Austria Vienna haven’t won any of their last three visits here so SV Ried know they’re capable of beating their more illustrious opponents.

Austria Vienna enter this game looking even more unconvincing than before after a 3-0 demolition by Athletic Club de Bilbao midweek. They already have a quite poor away record for a big side as they’ve lost five out of their eight away games in the Bundesliga this season. Austria Vienna have now lost three out of their last five games in all competitions and are conceding far too many goals at the moment, something that’s going to cause them a problem against a very capable SV Ried today. More worryingly for the visitors, they’re finding goals hard to come by themselves so even if they’re playing well then the best result they’ll get is a draw currently.

To put it bluntly, although a draw is generally a likely outcome from such a fixture, there’s far more favouring SV Ried than there is favouring Austria Vienna so there does look to be value in the home win at 5/4.

Verdict: SV Ried to win at 5/4.

Polonia Warsaw vs Korona Kielce – home win at 4/5.

Ever since former Barcleona playmaker Jose Maria Bakero took over the reigns at Polonia Warsaw they’ve looked a completely different side. They’ve managed to claim a draw at bitter rivals Legia Warsaw and managed to overcome Polonia Bytom in their last game. Their general level of football has improved and their confidence is high currently. Although they’re missing key defender Jodlowiec, they do welcome back Mysar and Sokolewski, which will assist them in their climb away from the relegation zone.

Visitors Korona Kielce have been one of the higher scoring sides in the Ekstraklasa this year but that doesn’t prevent them from occupying one of the lower Ekstraklasa league places due to their high number of goals conceded. However, we may well witness a complete reversal in their tactical approach after the contraversial exit of manager Motyka. They’ve replaced him with Marcin Sasal but he won’t be in charge for this game. With that in mind, it’s unlikely that Korona Kielce’s five games without a win is going to be ended here today, particularly as their rejuvenated hosts are the better side between these two.

Overall, the hosts are in good shape and have good confidence whereas their visitors are virtually completely opposite so there appears to be some good value in the home win here.

Verdict: Polonia Warsaw to win at 4/5.

Las Palmas vs Villarreal II – home win at 10/11.

Hosts Las Palmas will look to fall back on their reliable home form after three games without a win. Their momentum is virtually non-existent but they have managed to avoid defeat in six out of their seven home games, winning three and conceding very few goals along the way. Only a handful of sides have conceded less goals at home than Las Palmas so they’ll take comfort from that fact at least.

Visitors Villarreal II have already lost four out of seven away games this season and enter this game on the back of a 4-0 thrashing at Real Betis Balompie midweek. Few sides have conceded more than Villarreal II away from home and they don’t enjoy scoring away from home either. Villarreal II know they’re not as good as Las Palmas so I suspect that they’ll go for the draw here, which wouldn’t be a bad addition to their poor away form this season!

Basically, there’s a quality difference here and Las Palmas have the edge because of it. Their home advantage tends to count significantly for them and Villarreal II are leaky enough to give them the chances they’ll need to win this game.

Verdict: Las Palmas to win at 10/11.

Gaziantepspor vs Antalyaspor – home win at 10/11.

Gaziantepspor enter this game with two wins, one draw, and just one defeat from their last four games so they do carry considerable momentum into this encounter. They are a rather full-blooded side that prefer to give it their all and lose than to play out for the draw, something indicated rather well with their home form this season reading seven games played, four games won, and three games lost. Their home form is decent but generally not enough on it’s own to make me back them to win a game.

Cue the entrance of Denizlispor! The visitors have lost four out of their last five games, drawing the other encounter and generally looking very poor. Nobody else has lost as many away games as they have this season (obviously discounting Ankaraspor) with six defeats in seven games. They average conceding two goals per away game and don’t appear to have any knowledge of tactics given the ease with which they’re beaten in most away games.

Although Gaziantepspor’s form isn’t the most reliable home form in the division, Denizlispor’s away form is some of the most reliable in the division as in they’re very poor! This should be a fairly routine home win for the hosts today!

Verdict: Gaziantepspor to win at 10/11.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Accumulator fodder - Newell’s Old Boys, Dinamo Zagreb, Auxerre, Panathinaikos, SL Benfica, Maritimo, Vaslui, Luzern, Basel, Young Boys Bern, Real Mallorca.

You might also want to consider an accumulator containing Ajax, PSV, Twente, and Feyenoord at 5/1.

Argentinian Primera Division:

Velez Sarsfeld vs River Plate (7) 1-0
Newell’s Old Boys vs Arsenal de Sarandi (8) 2-0
Lanus vs Gimnasia De La Plata (8) 2-1

Australian A-League:

Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar (7) 1-0

Austrian Bundesliga:

SV Ried vs Austria Vienna (6) 2-1
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg (6) 1-1
Austria Karnten vs LASK Linz (5) over 3.5 goals

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Lokeren vs Club Brugge (6) 0-1
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht (8) 1-2

Belgian Tweede Klasse:

Liege vs Turnhout (6)
Ronse vs KVSK United (6)
OH Leuven vs Dender (5) draw no bet

Brazilian Serie A:

Gremio Barueri vs Atletico Paranaense (7) 1-0
Santos vs Cruzeiro (6) 1-1
Coritiba vs Fluminense (6) 1-1
Vitoria vs Goias (6) 2-1
Flamengo vs Gremio (8) 2-1
Botafogo vs Palmeiras (6) 1-2
Internacional vs Santo Andre (8) 2-0
Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife (7) 2-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Sliven vs Levski Sofia (7) 1-2
CSKA Sofia vs Chernomorets Burgas (8) 2-0

Colombian Futbol Profesional:

Independiente Medellin vs Real Cartagena (8) 2-0
Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (6) 2-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Medimurje vs Dinamo Zagreb (9) 0-2

Cypriot Division 1:

Enosis Neon Paralimni vs APEP (8) under 2.5 goals
Nea Salamis vs A.E.Paphos (5) 0-1

Danish Superligaen:

Nordsjaelland vs Midtylland (6) 1-1
Randers vs HB Koge (5) 1-0
Silkeborg vs Brondby (6) 2-1
OB Odense vs FC Copenhagen (7) 1-1

English Premier League:

Fulham vs Sunderland (6) 0-0
Everton vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) 1-1

English Championship:

Scunthorpe United vs Coventry City (6)

French Ligue 1:

Auxerre vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (8) 1-0
Boulogne vs Racing Club Lens (6) 1-2
Grenoble vs Toulouse (5) 0-0
LOSC Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais (7) 1-1

German Bundesliga:

Koln vs Werder Bremen (7) 1-2
Schalke 04 vs Hertha HSC Berlin (8) over 2.5 goals

German Bundesliga 2:

Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs 1860 Munich (5)
Rot-Weiss Ahlen vs Karlsruher (6)
Paderborn vs MSV Duisburg (6)

Greek Super League:

Panthrakikos vs Asteras Tripolis (7) 0-1
PAS Giannina vs Iraklis (6) 0-0
Ergotelis vs Kavala (8) 1-1
Panathinaikos vs Atromitos (8) 2-0
Panionios vs AEK Athens (6) 2-1

Greek B Ethniki:

Ethnikos Piraeus vs Doxa Dramas (7)
Kalamata vs Ilioupoli (7)
Olympiakos Volos vs Diagoras Rodos (6)
Panserraikos vs Panaitolikos Agrinio (7)
Pierikos Katerini vs Agrotikos Asteras (7)
Thrasivoulos vs Ethnikos Asteras (7)

Italian Serie A:

Bologna vs Udinese (6) 1-2
Fiorentina vs Atalanta Bergamo (7) 1-0
Genoa vs Parma (8) over 2.5 goals
Livorno vs Chievo Verona (6) 0-0
SSC Napoli vs Bari (5) 1-1
Palermo vs Cagliari (6) 1-1
Siena vs Catania (7) 0-0
AS Roma vs Lazio (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game

Mexican Primera Division:

Toluca vs Monterrey (5) 1-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

Utrecht vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (8) 0-2
RKC Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven (9) 0-2
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Groningen (8) 2-1
NEC Nijmegen vs Twente Enschede (8) 0-1
Heracles Almelo vs Heerenveen (6) 1-0

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Ruch Chorzow vs Wisla Krakow (6) 1-2
Polonia Warsaw vs Korona Kielce (7) 2-0

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Maritimo vs Olhanense (8) 2-0
SL Benfica vs Academica de Coimbra (9) -1.75 handicap

Portuguese Liga de Honra:

Portimonense vs Desportivo Aves (7)
Freamunde vs Santa Clara (7)
Feirense vs Sporting Covilha (8)
Oliveirense vs Fatima (6)
Varzim vs Carregado (6)
Desportivo Chaves vs Trofense (6)

Romanian Liga:

Unirea Alba Iulia vs Gaz Metan Medias (7) 1-1
Vaslui vs Otelul Galati (9) 2-0
FC Poli Timisoara vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (8) 2-0

Scottish Premier League:

Hamilton Academicals vs Hearts (6) 0-1

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Senica (7) 2-1

Slovenian Prva Liga:

Drava vs Koper (6) 0-1
Rudar Velenje vs Maribor (5) 1-2

Spanish Primera Liga:

Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon (7) 1-1
Espanyol vs Racing Club Santander (6) 2-1
Real Mallorca vs Real Zaragoza (8) 2-0
Malaga vs Osasuna (6) 1-1
Villarreal vs Getafe (8) 2-1
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Valencia (6) 2-1

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Levante vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Castellon (7)
Real Murcia vs Real Betis Balompie (5)
Las Palmas vs Villarreal II (7)

Swiss Super League:

Luzern vs Aarau (8) 2-0
Basel vs Bellinzona (8) 2-0
Young Boys Bern vs Neuchatel Xamax (8) over 2.5 goals

Swiss Challenge League:

Servette vs Le Mont (6)
Locarno vs Kriens (6)
Biel-Bienne vs Yverdon Sport (7)
Stade Nyonnais vs Schaffhausen (7)

Turkish Super Lig:

Gaziantepspor vs Antalyaspor (7) 2-1
Kayserispor vs Bursaspor (7) 1-1
Genclerbirligi vs Denizlispor (6) 2-1
Trabzonspor vs Ankaragucu (7) 1-0
Galatasaray vs Istanbul BB (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Ukrainian Premier League:

Zakarpattya Uzhhorod vs Illichivets Mariupol (7) 1-1
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Shakhtar Donetsk (8) under 2.5 goals
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Metalurg Donetsk (6) 1-0

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Tacuarembo vs Montevideo Wanderers (7) 1-1
River Plate Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (6) 1-2
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Penarol (8) over 2.5 goals
Cerro vs Cerro Largo (6) 1-2

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Llaneros de Guanare vs Deportivo Tachira (8) 0-2
Centro Italo vs Deportivo Anzoategui (6) 0-1
Caracas vs Zulia (7) over 2.5 goals
Aragua vs Zamora (6) 2-1
Trujillanos vs Yaracuyanos (7) 2-0
Atletico El Vigia vs Deportivo Italia (5) 1-1
Deportivo Lara vs Real Esppor Club (7) 1-0
Mineros de Guayana vs Carabobo (8) 1-0
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida (6) 1-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!