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Avai vs Flamengo

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After a galling late goal from Hameenlinna yesterday to ruin my game of the day, we must look on to brighter prospects today.

The featured game today is the Serie A encounter in Brazil between Avai and Flamengo. You could be forgiven for thinking at the start of the season that the game between these two sides today wouldn’t be a relegation battle but in actual fact, it absolutely is. Both sides need the points here to secure Serie A football for next season so we should see a decent game here.

You won’t often see me go against Avai at home; it’s such a hard away game for any Brazilian side. However, they’ve really struggled of late and now find themselves dragged into a relegation battle that they’re frankly not prepared for. When you consider that only Fluminense, Corinthians, Santos, and Gremio have scored more goals at home than Avai and yet tonight’s hosts are still in the drop zone, it shows that their problem is defending. Two clean sheets in nineteen consecutive games in all competitions reiforces that observation and one of those clean sheets was against a very impotent Ceara side so Avai’s defence certainly leaves a lot to be desired! A few weeks ago, you could have forgiven Avai for looking forward to this game as Flamengo had no fit strikers and also they had the knowledge that they’d never lost to Flamengo since promotion to Serie A, even beating them 3-0 here last season. However, it’s Avai who are struggling ahead of this game with potency being lowered en mass and defending as bad as ever so you have to fear for Avai here.

To make matters worse for the hosts, Flamengo are getting better game by game. I was able to go against them consistently for a lengthy period of time if you go back a few weeks. However, the return of veteran striker Dejan Petkovic granted Flamengo a bit of life and now the introduction of both Deivid and Diogo in attack has suddenly turned Flamengo back into the force that they should be. Flamengo were immense at Botafogo lately but left with just a 1-1 draw. However, they finally made it count last match against lowly Atletico Goianiense, winning 2-0 in a very comfortable game. Flamengo are starting to believe in themselves more; you can see it in their overall displays and as a result, the sleeping giants are scoring more freely. There’s still work to do for Flamengo but one defeat in eight consecutive games says that momentum supports Flamengo in a big way here, scoring and conceding for four consecutive away games and remaining unbeaten throughout. Flamengo’s attitude has improved a lot and with momentum and potency starting to work in their favour, I think they’ve got a better chance of causing an upset here than the bookies seem to think.

However, I’m not going to participate in the 1×2 market here – Serie A has been particularly unstable of late a it begins to draw to a close for obvious reasons. Instead, I’m plumping for the over 2.5 goals market. Why? Well, five out of Avai’s last eight games have gone over 2.5 goals and three out of their last four home games have gone over 2.5 goals whereas two out of Flamengo’s last four away games have gone over 2.5 goals, not to mention Flamengo’s last visit here resulting in over 2.5 goals. Both sides have an innate ability to score and concede in each game that they play in and given that both sides need the points, my call will be over 2.5 goals for this game.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.

Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Botafogo vs Palmeiras – draw at 11/5.

You all know that I hate backing draws but if there’s going to be a draw today that can possibly be predicted, it has to be in this game. No side has drawn more Serie A home games than Botafogo this season with nine draws in fourteen games and no side has drawn more Serie A away games than Palmeiras with eight draws in fourteen games. Both sides turn up sporadically but neither is particularly adventurous in general so I don’t see either side going all-out-attack tonight. Neither side needs to take anything from this game – they’re both comfortably in the top-half of the table with not a lot to play for. Both sides haven’t lost a game for some time and with nothing to play for here, I predict a fairly boring game between two low-scoring sides which should ultimately yield a draw as both sides keep their respective runs of form going. It’s also worth noting that Botafogo have drawn six consecutive games ahead of this encounter and two out of the last three meetings between these two sides have ended in a draw.

Verdict: Draw at 11/5

Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Cortulua – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.

The Colombian Primera A is generally a fairly reliable league as long as you don’t do anything stupid like back an away win and I think we should have a winner tonight with this selection as a result.

I’m basically not very sure where the bookies get 4/5 on under 2.5 goals from. Atletico Nacional de Medellin are unquestionably the better of these two sides both because they’re a sleeping giant with some talented individuals and because their opponents are arguably the worst side in the division. However, let’s bear in mind that Atletico have scored an average of a goal per home game this season and have conceded just once in five consecutive home games so you know what type of side they are already. Looking at lowly Cortulua’s record, they’ve scored just once in five away games although they have leaked an average of two goals per game along the way. Does this look like an under 2.5 goals game to anyone else barring me here?!

Only giants Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota have scored at Atletico Nacional de Medellin in the Primera A this season, which is a  fine defensive record to bring into this game, so I’ll be beyond surprised to see Cortulua score here. The question in my mind is how many Atletico will score and given how well-marshalled and cautiously they’ve approached the vast majority of their games this season, I can only imagine them producing a well-oiled display but with no real flambuoyancy. For me, this game has a home win all over it but the value is in under 2.5 goals at 4/5 because I don’t see Atletico scoring more than twice in this game and I don’t envision the visitors scoring at all.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.

AB Copenhagen vs HB Koge – home win at 5/4.

AB’s home form so far this season definitely isn’t what it should be but 5/4 to win this game? Come on! The bookies know as well as I do that HB Koge sold a lot of good players following relegation from the Superligaen last season and it’s shown this season, albeit a lot more sporadically than I’d expected. HB Koge have a decent record in the 1st Division thus far but consider that the only two good sides they’ve faced have been Vejle and AGF Aarhus and they’ve lost both of those games and you’ll see where I’m coming from. HB Koge don’t look as good in attack this season without Kenyan striker Muttendango nor Zimbabwean striker Antipas and it’s understandable as to why that is – they simply lack good strikers! Neither of those two strikers played on a massively regular basis for HB Koge last season, it’s true, but both brought something to their football that HB Koge don’t have this season and as a result they’re struggling and it’s in games like this where I expect it to show the most as it has done twice already this season. AB’s problem at home this season has been conceding stupid goals but they should be able to rectify that today against a fairly predictable HB Koge attack. AB banished their early season blues by drubbing newly-promoted Bronshoj 4-0 in their last home game and they’ll hopefully bring some momentum into this game as a result. Defeat at Vejle last match won’t sit well with them but then again, they’re used to it by now as losing at Vejle seems to be part of their season irrespective of how they’re playing at the time! Nick Christensen is in good form for AB Copenhagen currently and given the hosts’ ability to score goals against just about anyone in this division, I expect them to overcome HB Koge today in a game that could very well boast over 2.5 goals.

Verdict: AB Copenhagen to win at 5/4.

PK-35 Helsinki vs PoPa Pori – away win at evens.

The wheels have well and truly fallen off the PK-35 Helsinki cart and they’ll be keen to put this Ykkonen season behind them and start preparations for next season’s inevitably bizarre campaign. This is the first of just two Ykkonen games remaining for the hosts and with nothing to gain or lose from this game, it’s likely that their atypical squad rotation will be more prominent than ever. They’ve not won in seven consecutive games now, losing five along the way, so things aren’t going to get much better for the hosts today. They looked uninterested as they were blown apart 3-0 by RoPS Rovaniemi at home last match and have lost to a few sides lately that they really shouldn’t be losing to, thus indicating their lack of interest in the remainder of the season. They’re conceding far too easily and aren’t scoring enough goals and why should that change today? They’re clearly demoralised and uninterested, which in itself is detrimental to their displays. However, the additional knowledge that “allowing” PoPa Pori to win this game may mean that bitter rivals Viikingit Helsinki could spend yet another season in the Ykkonen may even partially appeal to them today. PoPa Pori are good enough to win this game without assistance from the hosts but that assistance would certainly be welcome because PK-35 are still one of the better sides in the Ykkonen for me. Nonetheless, PK-35 have nothing to play for and PoPa Pori simply have to win this game if they intend on giving their Veikkausliiga dream a lifeline following Viikingit Helsinki’s win at TPV Tampere yesterday so the visitors will have to attack here, which is fortunate as that’s all they do well! Confidence is high in the Pori camp with five wins from six Ykkonen games, which is even more impressive when you consider that they were whipped 8-1 by league leaders RoPS Rovaniemi a couple of games ago and yet bounced back by destroying a resilient FC Espoo side 6-0. Confidence is clearly present for PoPa and they remain the second most potent side in the Ykkonen, in my opinion, so I fancy them to cause a lot of problems for a leaky PK-35 Helsinki defence today.

PK-35 aren’t doing anything well enough to deserve to take anything from this game today so I really don’t fancy them, particularly as losing will hurt their rivals if Viikingit fail to win their last Ykkonen game. PoPa Pori are good enough to take all three points here and it’s quintessential that they do so in order for the Veikkausliiga push to remain alive and with momentum and potency on their side, the away win at evens looks intriguing to me today.

Verdict: PoPa Pori to win at evens.

Accumulator fodder:

Algeria, Egypt, Ekranas Panevezys, Deportivo Xerez, The New Saints.

Recommended bets:

PoPa Pori, Algeria, and AB Copenhagen at 4/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

African Nations Qualifiers:

Zimbabwe vs Cape Verde Islands (6) 1-0
Central African Republic vs Algeria (8) 0-2
Madagascar vs Ethiopia (6) 1-0
Niger vs Egypt (8) 0-2
Congo vs Swaziland (7) over 2.5 goals
Guinea vs Nigeria (6) 2-1
Togo vs Tunisia (6) under 2.5 goals
Sierra Leone vs South Africa (5) 2-1
Libya vs Zambia (6) 0-1

International Friendly:

Jamaica vs Trinidad & Tobago (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score

Baltic League:

Banga Gargzdai vs Liepajas Metalurgs (5) 1-2
Ekranas Panevezys vs RFS/Olimps Riga (8) -1.5 handicap

Argentinian Primera Division:

Independiente vs Racing Club Avellaneda (7) under 2.5 goals
Velez Sarsfield vs Colon de Santa Fe (7) 1-0
Tigre vs Boca Juniors (5) 1-1

Brazilian Serie A:

Corinthians vs Atletico Goianiense (7) 2-1
Botafogo vs Palmeiras (7) 1-1
Cruzeiro vs Fluminense (3) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Goias vs Vitoria (4) 1-0
Avai vs Flamengo (6) over 2.5 goals
Internacional vs Atletico Mineiro (7) 2-0
Ceara vs Guarani (6) 1-1

Colombian Primera A:

Cucuta Deportivo vs Boyaca Chico (4) 1-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Atletico Huila (5) 2-1
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Cortulua (6) under 2.5 goals
La Equidad Bogota vs Deportivo Pereira (7) 2-0
Deportivo Cali vs America de Cali (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Danish 1st Division:

Roskilde vs Hobro (6)
Vestjaelland vs Hvidovre (6)
Hjorring vs Kolding (5)
Skive vs Naestved (6) over 2.5 goals
AB Copenhagen vs HB Koge (7)
Viborg vs Bronshoj (4)
Fredericia vs Vejle (4) draw no bet

Finnish Ykkonen:

MP Mikkeli vs KPV Kokkola (3) draw no bet
PK-35 Helsinki vs PoPa Pori (6)
OPS Oulu vs FC Espoo (5)

Irish Premier League:

Bray Wanderers vs Drogheda United (6) 2-1

Italian Serie B:

Frosinone vs Reggina (5) under 2.5 goals
Crotone vs Varese (6)
Empoli vs Piacenza (7)
Livorno vs Cittadella (6)
Modena vs Albinoleffe (5)
Padova vs Grosseto (6)
Portosummaga vs Novara (5)
Vicenza vs Ascoli (5)
Atalanta Bergamo vs Torino (6)

Mexican Primera Division:

Toluca vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-1
Morelia vs Santos Laguna (5) over 2.5 goals
America vs Monterrey (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Norwegian Divisjon 1:

Tromsdalen vs Moss (5)
Ranheim vs Nybergsund (6)
Sarpsborg 08 vs Mjondalen (7)
Strommen vs Follo (6)
Sandnes Ulf vs Lov-Ham Bergen (5) draw no bet

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

Sportivo Trinidense vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 1-2
Sportivo Luqueno vs 3 de Febrero (5) 1-0
Sport Colombia vs Rubio Nu (7) 1-1
Sol de America vs Cerro Porteno (6) 1-2

Polish Liga 1:

Piast Gliwice vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala (6) both sides to score

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Numancia vs Cordoba (6) under 2.5 goals
Deportivo Xerez vs Huesca (8)
Salamanca vs Granada (7)
Girona vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Ponferradina vs Real Valladolid (5)
Barcelona II vs Tenerife (6)

Uruguayan Primera Division:

El Tanque Sisley vs Rampla Juniors (6) 1-0
Montevideo Wanderers vs Danubio (6) 1-1
Bella Vista vs Tacuarembo (5) 2-1
Cerro vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (4) 1-1

Welsh Premier League:

Neath Athletic vs Carmarthen Town (6) 2-1
Prestatyn Town vs Airbus UK (5) 1-1
The New Saints vs Aberystwyth Town (8) over 2.5 goals

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Santos vs Avai

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Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between Santos and Avai. Both sides have played well this season and are both currently in the top eight as a result so we should hopefully see a good game of football tonight.

The reason Santos are doing so well is because of the nucleus of home-grown talent in the squad. The likes of Neymar, Ganso, Andre, and Wesley formed an exciting attacking unit and Santos have benefited strongly from it. However, as per usual, Santos have been forced to part with some of those players for financial reasons. Neymar and Ganso are yet to move on despite both being heavily linked with moves abroad. Andre has signed for Dynamo Kiev and Wesley has signed for Werder Bremen to replace Turkish German international Mesut Ozil after his departure to Real Madrid. Santos are used to this kind of problem, however, which is why they’ve signed Rodrigo Possebon from Manchester United and Keirrison on loan from Barcelona. Add those players to a side that already has experienced Edu Dracena and Arouca in it and the problem doesn’t seem too bad. Admittedly, there will be a teething period and it could very well start tonight but Santos remain a very determined unit and should prove to be such again tonight despite having recently lost influential midfielder Wesley.

Santos bring a good level of momentum into this game following four consecutive wins and with seven goals scored along the way, they’re not showing any signs of slowing down despite their departing youngsters, impressively enough. They’ve already won five out of seven at home this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game so it’s pretty much a given that in-form Santos will score against Avai tonight, just as they have done for the last four consecutive meetings between the two sides.

The big question is “will Avai join the party?”, to which my answer is “yes”. Why? Well, Avai are a plucky side. They’ve got a lot of guile and tenacity and although they do lack in the defensive department, they never seem to be short on goalscoring, although that is a more relevant statement when compared to their home form. Avai do average scoring a goal per away game at present but considering that they average scoring over two goals per home game, it’s not that an impressive record anymore. Avai actually average conceding two goals per away game at the moment so they’ve got defensive problems here before the match begins! Avai were on a barren run before their trip to relegation-threatened Atletico Goianiense last match as they claimed a 2-2 draw, which was their first points and first goals for three consecutive games, a run which included a home game against their opponents tonight, Santos. However, this was little more than a blip on Avai’s form chart as their other head-to-head statistics reveal with both sides scoring at least once in their previous three meetings. Their last game at Santos actually ended 1-3 in favour of Avai earlier this season in the Copa Sudamericana so don’t doubt the visitors today despite their poor run of form – the likes of Caio and Vandinho often have other ideas when sides write them off!

All in all, Santos aren’t at their most complete due to Wesley departing despite the form chart showing otherwise and Avai aren’t as bad as the form chart makes out either. I think the bookies have been just a little lenient with the odds on show tonight as both sides are simply goalscoring sides by nature and their head-to-heads almost always reflect that.  

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/6.

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Israel vs Malta – Malta to win with +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.

I genuinely can’t believe my eyes with these odds. Ok, Israel are a good side on their day if they somehow find an alternative to Benayoun carrying them but they’re not good enough to earn 1/12 here! They’re a decent possession side and they’re not easy to beat but they’re certainly not natural goalscorers. The only time they’ve beaten a side to a sufficient level for the above handicap to fail was a somewhat uncharacteristic 7-0 win against Luxembourg last year – the last time prior to that was Estonia in 2007. Don’t get me wrong here – the likes of Katan, Sahar, and Arbeitman are good strikers, as is Argentinian striker Colautti, but they’re not deadly at this level. Israel are a sound side but they’re simply not ruthless enough to destroy Malta today, in my humble opinion, although they should ultimately win the game.

I’d be the first one to admit that Malta aren’t exactly world-beaters but what they are is hard to break down. They’ve played three games this year. They lost 1-2 at home to Finland despite matching their Scandinavian visitors for the majority of the game. They were then undone 3-0 away from home by a good Germany side before holding Republic of Macedonia to a 1-1 draw at home a few weeks ago. Malta aren’t the walkover side that they used to be. With the likes of Mifsud and Bogdanovic playing abroad, Maltese experience on the continent is starting to increase and their overall football is beginning to show it. They’re not good enough to be taking points off the Israelis today barring a miraculous display but I do think they’re good enough to stop the Israelis from making this a walk in the park. I’ve got scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 in my head but I’d be surprised to see anything more than that.

Obviously this isn’t a dead certain bet and remember what I said the other day regarding caution when betting on international games! However, the odds on Israel winning this game are too short for my liking so I think giving the Maltese side a +2.5 goal handicap at generous odds of 10/11 could be very worthwhile today if things unfold as I expect them to.

Verdict: Malta to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.

Spain vs Netherlands – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.

I don’t really think there’s much I can write here, regrettably! I often have this problem with international selections as there isn’t an awful lot you can write about. Simply put – these are two goalscoring sides with very talented players. Netherlands’ last five consecutive games have gone over 2.5 goals (including a 2-1 win against Spain) and three out of Spain’s last five games have gone over 2.5 goals. Spain’s defence isn’t as good as Netherlands’ but they make up for it by boasting a marginally better attack. Netherlands don’t need to win this game as they’ve already qualified for Denmark 2011 but Spain could do with winning this one as they’re four points clear of Poland with two games remaining and with their last game being away at Poland, three points today would be very welcome indeed. I therefore see Spain attacking a lot and the Dutch having some joy on the counter-attack which leaves me with over 2.5 goals at decent odds. I’d leave the home win though – 8/11 leaves a sour taste in my mouth for a game between two good sides so I’d perhaps hit it in-play if you’re interested in the 1X2 side of this game.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.

No multiples appeal to me today, guys, although feel free to check out my thoughts on the rest of the day’s action below!

UEFA European Championship Qualifier:

Israel vs Malta (6) 1-0

UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier:

Spain vs Netherlands (7) over 2.5 goals

Copa Sudamericana:

Olimpia Asuncion vs Defensor Sporting (4) 2-1
Velez Sarsfield vs Banfield (6) under 2.5 goals

Brazilian Serie A:

Santos vs Avai (5) 2-2
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Goianiense (5) 2-1

Singaporean S-League:

Armed Forces vs Sengkang Punggol (5) over 2.5 goals

Enjoy your free betting tips!