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SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio

Today's featured game is the Liga Sagres encounter between SL Benfica and Naval de Maio. Despite disappointingly (and somewhat strangely) losing to Sporting Braga last weekend, SL Benfica have bounced back with a mid-week victory in England against Everton in the UEFA Europa League. I can't see SL Benfica needing momentum to beat Naval de Maio either way but it's still useful to enter a game after you've won the previous game. I'm quite happy to write off the Sporting Braga defeat as "just one of those days" as SL Benfica were very unfortunate on the day with quite a number of things, almost too many things you might say, if you were of the suspicious type...which I am. Anyway, the firepower of SL Benfica is frankly worthy of a better league at the present time, such is its efficiency in destroying sides. I mean, the giants of Portuguese football have scored twenty goals at the Estadio de Luz so far this season, which is a terrifying average of five goals per game! They've won three from their four home games this season and have only conceded three goals on this crazy run! SL Benfica, to put it bluntly, are looking the best side in Portugal at the moment in my opinion, and I fully expect them to show this again tonight. Visitors Naval de Maio are actually doing well at the moment with three wins from their last four games. However, in that time they're not come across a side with the deadly attack of SL Benfica, although I have to give credit for their impressive win at Maritimo to start this particular run off. Naturally, the struggling Naval de Maio are largely taking points at home and this is perfectly illustrated by their away record, which reads played four, lost three, won one, scored twice (both in the same game), conceded eight. Effectively, they're atrocious on the road and currently average conceding two goals per game on the road, although I expect that margin to increase if SL Benfica turn it on tonight. I'm not normally a fan of the bigger handicaps like this but I feel this fixture has all that it needs to see SL Benfica win the game with a -2.75 goal handicap at 7/4.

Monday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio - home win with -2.75 handicap at 7/4 - see introduction for full details.

Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi - home win at 23/20. This match is between two sides that are really struggling in the Argentinian Primera Division. However, as I'm sure you're all aware, the sides in these predicaments tend to win their home games due to their poor away form, hence the predicament that they're generally in! Eat your heart out, Freud! Anyway, Huracan have managed to win two of their six home games this season already, drawing once and losing three times, which is a decent home record at best. However, more encouragingly Huracan haven't lost any of their last three home games. They've beaten Racing Club Avellaneda 3-1 a few weeks ago and have since drawn with River Plate and beaten Rosario Central without even conceding a goal. Huracan are certainly set in their ways at home and are starting to make it a fortress. Visitors Arsenal de Sarandi have performed quite well lately with two wins in their last three games. Needless to say, however, those wins were at home. Their away form shows they've lost their last three away games and have conceded eight goals on that run too. Arsenal de Sarandi's away form in general is poor with four defeats and one win from five away games this season with them averaging over two goals per away game conceded. Bluntly, this should be a real dogfight of a game but there's enough favouring Huracan here for me to take them at 23/20.

Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen - lay Slavia Prague at evens. I find it quite baffling that Slavia Prague aren't hitting their stride yet but I'm here to take advantage of this fact so I'm going to attempt to do so here. Viktoria Plzen have been punching above their weight all season long but credit given where credit is due - they've only lost twice on the road in seven games and are unbeaten in their last five games now. The predominant reasoning behind this fact is that Viktoria Plzen rarely concede goals, something they've done only four times in their seven away games, which is less than any other Gambrinus Liga outfit. Hosts Slavia Prague are one of the daddies in this league but they're simply not showing it currently. I thought they'd be weakened after their losses this time around but I didn't expect them to be quite as weak as they have been. They've lost three of their last four games and only managed to score three times in those games. To say that Slavia Prague look out of sorts would be an understatement. Viktoria Plzen haven't taken a point from here since 2006 but they've got the best chance that they'll ever get to do that today so I'm laying Slavia Prague at evens.

Liverpool vs Birmingham City - under 2.5 goals at evens. I don't think I need to explain to you all the situation at Liverpool at the present time. They're not playing good football, they are missing leader Steven Gerrerad and Fernando Torres (who is doing his best to carry them) is playing through the pain barrier. A draw at Olympique Lyonnais last week will have damaged their morale as they're effectively out of the UEFA Champions League, barring a miracle. Their attention must now return to their league game with Birmingham City, who impressed at home to Manchester City in their last game but failed to score and gain a deserved victory. Birmingham City's story in the Premier League so far could very well be titled "Playing well; not scoring", which is effectively what I expect to happen again here tonight. I don't think Liverpool are great but they really should have enough to get a goal or two here whereas I can't see Birmingham City doing what they've only done four times away from home this season and scoring a goal. For me, taking under 2.5 goals at evens should be a good bet tonight.

AEK Athens vs Larissa - lay AEK Athens at 7/5. There's an awful lot going on behind the scenes at AEK Athens still and they're not producing the goods as a result of it. They've not won in their last five games in all competitions, games which have included a draw at home to Belarus' BATE Borisov in the UEFA Europa League and draws away to Aris Salonika and Ergotelis respectively in the Super League. The fact that they've won just three games out of nine this season speaks volumes regarding the club's current demise. Visitors Larissa are a capable side despite what their league placing may suggest. Larissa also enter this game with good momentum after a three-match unbeaten run that has seen them claim two victories and one draw. I personally consier Larissa as a top seven side that aren't too different from AEK Athens so I think backing Larissa to do what they did here two seasons ago by avoiding defeat at 7/5 could turn out to be a very good bet indeed tonight.

Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax - over 3.5 goals at 6/5. These two crazy Swiss sides have already scored sixty-seven goals between them in just fifteen games each, which is an average of over two goals scored per game for both side. Basel's form of late and overall ability suggests that they'll win this game but there's not a lot of value in that other than as accumulator fodder. However, the fact that they score nearly three goals per game at home on average and that Neuchatel Xamax score nearly two goals per game away from home appears to suggest that we're in for a heavy goalscoring session tonight. I'd be happier if Neuchatel Xamax were in better form to give them a better chance of scoring more goals but frankly I'm happy with this bet nonetheless. Lastly, games between these two sides have gone over 3.5 goals for four out of their last six encounters so taking over 3.5 goals at 6/5 here tonight could be an inspired bet!

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi (7) 2-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Minior Pernik (6) 1-1

Cypriot Division 1:

APOEL Nicosia vs APEP (9) -1.75 handicap

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen (5) 1-1
Slovacko vs Sparta Prague (7) 0-1

English Premier League:

Liverpool vs Birmingham City (7) under 2.5 goals

English Championship:

Barnsley vs Sheffield United (6)

English FA Cup:

Millwall vs AFC Wimbledon (8) 2-1

French Ligue 2:

Nantes vs Guingamp (8)

German Bundesliga 2:

Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock (7)

Greek Super League:

AEK Athens vs Larissa (5)

Greek B Ethniki:

Ionikos Nikaias vs Thrasivoulos (5) draw no bet

Italian Serie B:

Torino vs Lecce (6)

Norwegian Tippeligaen/Adeccoligaen Play-Off:

Sarpsborg vs Kongsvinger (6)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio (10) -2.75 handicap

Romanian Liga:

Steaua Bucharest vs Unirea Alba Iulia (8) under 2.5 goals

Swiss Super League:

Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax (8) over 3.5 goals

Swiss Challenge League:

Lugano vs Kriens (7)

Enjoy your free betting tips!