Rubin Kazan vs VFL Wolfsburg
Most people will be looking to the UEFA Europa League today - not me. I'm a little tired of this unpredictable competition and we've all suffered some horrendous times of late in this competition due to the lack of commitment from sides so I'm turning my focus to the strangely more reliable Copa Libertadores in South America with the exception of today's featured game! The UEFA Europa League bears a horrible card tonight with potentially a lot of goals being scored but little reliability anywhere so good luck if you try your hand at it tonight - I'm not!
Today's featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between Russian champions Rubin Kazan and German champions VFL Wolfsburg. Rubin Kazan have impressed me in European competition this season and I consider them rather unlucky to have been knocked out of the UEFA Champions League. I didn't expect much from them, to be honest, so they've impressed me substantially by very much earning their wins. Visitors VFL Wolfsburg have been up and down so many times this season that I've lost count but one thing that does remain constant for the Germans is conceding goals, which makes today's trip to Russia even harder.
Rubin Kazan are yet to lose at home in European football this season despite hosting some of the biggest and more experienced sides in European competition i.e. Barcelona, Internazionale, and Dynamo Kiev. Rubin Kazan drew all three games at home in the UEFA Champions League before being knocked out but were impressive throughout their group stage, even claiming a rare win at Barcelona, something that few other sides can claim to have done. Rubin Kazan's success, unlike most Russian sides, hinges on their tactical prowess rather than their home advantage. Russia is a horrendous place to travel to anyway as a potent Hapoel Tel-Aviv found as they travelled from Israel to lose 3-0 although the game wasn't even at Rubin's ground due to weather conditions. It's bitterly cold in Russia this time of year and that does play a part in increasing the struggle for visiting sides. Rubin Kazan are very adept defensively and you sense that if they go in front then they'll win the game as a result. Rubin Kazan also beat CSKA Moscow a few days ago in the Russian Super Cup without conceding a goal so their confidence and momentum is good at the moment and they'll prove a stern test for their German opponents.
VFL Wolfsburg though - who knows what to think of them? They score a lot of goals and concede even more! They're one of the worst defensive sides in the Bundesliga but one of the most potent so it depends which Wolfsburg turns up. They had been poor in the Bundesliga for some time before appointing a new manager and have since gone five games unbeaten in all competitions, winning their last four games consecutively. They're back to their usual selves with their freescoring style but that will be tested to the maximum on their nightmare trip to defensively-astute Rubin Kazan today, who have conceded just one goal at home in four European games. Wolfsburg drew 2-2 at Villarreal in their UEFA Europa League away game but could and probably should have lost the game after being guilty of giving some easy chances to Villarreal thanks to poor defending. Wolfsburg were also knocked out of the UEFA Champions League in the group stages and lost two out of their three away games then with their only success being in Turkey against a demoralised and out-of-form Besiktas JK. Wolfsburg have already travelled to Russia and lost here when they faced CSKA Moscow in the group stages of the UEFA Champions League so will not have fond memories of the difficult trip east. Kazan is an intimidating venue for any side so it'll be interesting to see how Wolfsburg approach this game.
This is my featured game for the day but the very fact that it's in the UEFA Europa League screams "be careful!" to all punters. Rubin Kazan are more than capable of using their superb tactics to win this game efficiently and I do expect them to do so with their strong home advantage. However, Wolfsburg are on fire currently and their potency is good so they will give Rubin a tough test. However, the odds on a home win look good value for the Russian champions to win as they're consistently underestimated by the bookies so I think it's worth a punt today.
Verdict: Rubin Kazan to win at evens.
Thursday's Picks
My tips:
Deportivo Quito vs Internacional - home win at 7/5.
Ah, the joy of altitude! Quito, one of the most difficult venues in South America, tonight plays host Ecuadorian Primera A champions Deportivo Quito as they entertain Brazil's Internacional.
Deportivo Quito have been unimpressive domestically this season with some disappointing displays and even more disappointing results with their most recent being a loss at home to bitter rivals Liga de Quito. That won't sit well with tonight's hosts so they should have additional motivation for this game tonight. Deportivo Quito lost their only Copa Libertadores game this season at Uruguayans Cerro but now have their first home game of the competition. Deportivo Quito made their maiden voyage into this competition last season and have never lost at home during their fleeting appearances despite hosting both Cruzeiro and Estudiantes De La Plata, winning two out of their three home games. No side likes travelling to Quito so the home advantage really is a massive advantage for Deportivo Quito and the hosts need it at the moment too. They've got enough quality in their squad to do damage to Internacional tonight, however, so the odds do look good value.
Internacional lost on their last visit to Quito, albeit against Deportivo's bitter rivals Liga de Quito back in 2007's Copa Libertadores. Like most Brazilian sides, Internacional don't travel particularly well with just two wins outside of Brazil in their last seven away games in the Copa Libertadores. That record is in the past, admittedly, but it's still relevant in terms of how a side (and sometimes even a nation) travels. Internacional have some match practice as they're mid-way through their state championship in which they're doing well without particularly impressing. Internacional won their only Copa Libertadores game of this season at home to Deportivo's title rivals Emelec Guayaquil in an unconvincing 2-1 victory. Internacional don't deal well with physical sides generally but that's the kind of game they'll get from Deportivo Quito tonight so it'll be interesting to see how it goes.
Although I won't deny that Internacional are the better footballing side out of these two outfits, the game is being played in a frankly hostile Quito venue at alarming altitudes so I'd put these two sides on par with each other for that reason. Deportivo Quito are yet to convince this season but have the perfect opportunity to kickstart their season tonight as they have their traditional home advantage and the ability to make it count. Brazilian sides rarely have joy in Ecuador, like most sides, and Internacional shouldn't be any different. So long as Deportivo Quito remain physical (whilst keeping eleven men on the field!) against Internacional then the flowing football of the Brazilians should be disrupted sufficiently enough for the Ecuadorians to claim a narrow home win in what should be a low-scoring game. After all - I seriously doubt that we'll see an over-zealous display from Internacional at such an altitude or they'll most likely die so the hosts should have their chances to do damage tonight.
Verdict: Deportivo Quito to win at 7/5.
Recommended bets:
My sole recommendation today is a Copa Libertadores four team accumulator with Deportivo Quito, Cruzeiro, Sao Paulo, and Emelec Guayaquil at 12/1. Cruzeiro have a difficult away game but against a poor side so the bookies have called this correctly at 4/6, unfortunately - I had hoped for 4/5 or perhaps evens at some generous bookies! The same is applicable for Sao Paulo, unfortunately - these fuckers must be reading my blog, eh?! Again, odds are spot on for Emelec Guayaquil at 4/6 - I like this bet an awful lot, they've impressed me this year - and the risky one is Deportivo Quito who are under-performing a little but are deadly at home.
For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Hamburger SV vs Anderlecht (7) over 2.5 goals
Rubin Kazan vs VFL Wolfsburg (7) 1-0
Atletico Madrid vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (6) over 2.5 goals
LOSC Lille vs Liverpool (6) 1-1
SL Benfica vs Olympique de Marseille (6) over 2.5 goals
Juventus vs Fulham (6) 2-1
Panathinaikos vs Standard de Liege (6) 1-0
Valencia CF vs Werder Bremen (4) 1-1
Copa Libertadores:
Nacional Asuncion vs Sao Paulo (7) 1-2
Emelec Guayaquil vs Cerro (8) 2-0
Deportivo Italia vs Cruzeiro (7) over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Quito vs Internacional (6) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Woodlands Wellington (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Shabab
Well, the Asian Champions League was disappointing yesterday with Changchun Yatai stealing all the goals from the other sides in their 9-0 win but at least Kashima Antlers won at profitable odds! In brighter news, however, the Meistriliiga returns to us exactly as I'd anticipated so it looks profitable for the forseeable future - keep an eye on it!
Today's featured game is between Pakhtakor Tashkent and Al Shabab in the Asian Champions League. Uzbek hosts Pakhtakor are the second-biggest side in Uzbekistan and have some good experience in this competition. Al Shabab have good experience in this competition but the Saudi Arabian side aren't consistent with their performances as an opening day draw at home to Iranians Sepahan emphasised.
Pakhtakor Tashkent are somewhat in the shadow of "Big Phil" Scolari's FC Bunyodkor but remain a very good side themselves. Uzbekistan is rapidly becoming the place not to go to in search of points with Uzbek football on the rise due to the wealth of their two leading clubs. Previously Uzbekistan had only produced the likes of Maksim Shatskikh and Mirdjalal Kasimov that had been consistently successful in European football but their numbers are gradually increasing. Pakhtakor are unbeaten in their last six home games in this competition, winning four out of those six games. Pakhtakor are in their fifth consecutive year of Asian Champions League football and have matured well since their exposure to different footballing styles, even becoming one of the better sides in this competition. Pakhtakor reached the quarter-finals of last season's competition so they'll look to at least emulate that this time around. Pakhtakor tend to struggle more on the road as you'd expect but won their opening Asian Champions League game at Al Ain of United Arab Emirates so today's hosts are furthering their game even moreso. Few sides have an easy ride here and although Saudi Arabian sides have had more joy here in recent years than other sides have, I still fancy a maturing Pakhtakor Tashkent to do damage today.
Al Shabab have already endured a disappointing draw at home to Sepahan of Iran in this year's competition so don't enter this game feeling too pleased! They've lost their last two away games consecutively in this competition and have won just one out of their last five away games in this competition. Al Shabab haven't been involved in high-scoring games in this competition for a little while now with the Saudis playing a more compact style but also a more goal-shy style. Despite their experience in this competition, however, Al Shabab appear to be on the decline and will most likely struggle in what is now one of the toughest away games that a side can play in this competition.
Although I expect a tight game between two capable sides, I feel Pakhtakor Tashkent have developed enough and have enough momentum to overcome a somewhat under-performing Al Shabab today.
Verdict: Pakhtakor Tashkent to win at 9/10.
Wednesday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Banfield - home win at 9/10.
Uruguayans Club Nacional de Montevideo have a superb record at home in this competition with just one defeat in their last fifteen games, a defeat which came against eventual runners-up Estudiantes De La Plata. Club Nacional have won eleven of those games so I think it's fairer to say that despite the lack of geographical advantage, this remains one of the more difficult away games to play in this competition. Club Nacional often score two goals or more which makes them a difficult side to contain and they needed those goals in their 3-2 win at home to Ecuador's Deportivo Cuenca in their opening game of this tournament as the Uruguayans failed to convince consistently. Club Nacional take this competition very seriously, however, as they indicated by taking a draw from a lengthy trip north to face Morelia of Mexico. Club Nacional have won both domestic games since that trip north against rivals Racing Montevideo and Montevideo Wanderers whilst scoring five times so Club Nacional are only just entering their stride, which bodes ominously for their opponents tonight.
Visitors Banfield are yet to strike any kind of consistency following a dominant Apertura campaign. They've lost a good number of players since then so that does explain it but it does leave us a tad bemused as to where to look when they play! On one hand, Banfield laboured to a 2-1 home win against Morelia in the Copa Libertadores before travelling to a nightmare tie in Ecuador against Deportivo Cuenca and breezing it 4-1! Yet this Banfield side only managed a 0-0 draw at Atletico Tucuman in their last domestic game so just where are Banfield at? Even the wisest cannot say! What I will say is that they're not playing well on the road irrespective of their result in Ecuador. Domestically, they've lost two out of their four away games, drawing once, and winning once. They've lost to some poor sides too i.e. Chacarita Juniors. Banfield don't concede many but on the road they tend to struggle to score. Banfield will be motivated for this game not only because they want to do well in the competition but also because of the traditional rivalry. However, I don't think they've got the experience in this competition to take on a side like Club Nacional so could struggle tonight.
We should see a very good game but a very heated game between these two sides. Argentina vs Uruguay and their respective club sides always brings a traditionally high rivalry and that's all the motivation that Club Nacional will need to awaken their dominant home form in this competition. Club Nacional are more experienced than Banfield in this competition and are very potent at home so the home win looks favourable tonight.
Verdict: Club Nacional de Montevideo to win at 9/10.
Pohang Steelers vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima - home win at 13/10.
Reigning champions Pohang Steelers lost their opening game at Adelaide United, which wasn't the best start to defending their crown. However, where the Korean side are strongest is at home where they've won their last five home games in the Asian Champions League consecutively, avoiding defeat in all but one of their home games in this competition ever! The only side to win here was Adelaide United, ironically - Pohang Steelers really don't like this side! Pohang Steelers have gone from strength to strength in this competition and will be looking to further their impressive home record by adding the name of Sanfrecce Hiroshima to a list that already contains millionaires Bunyodkor, Tianjin Teda, and Central Coast Mariners to name a few.
Visitors Sanfrecce Hiroshima compete in their very first Asian Champions League competition and it showed as they were beaten 1-0 at home in their opening game against Chinese outfit Shandong Luneng. This is a real learning curve for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and unfortunately for the Japanese side there aren't many tougher away games than Pohang Steelers in this competition currently. The defeat will have concerned Sanfrecce Hiroshima but surely not as much as their lack of goals scored in that game? In this competition, you simply must score goals at home to have any chance of progressing because this competition can make you travel approximately 3000 miles if you're unfortunate to draw a side that far away - not the kind of game you can enter lightly. I think Sancfrecce's lack of potency and experience in this competition will hit them hard and they'll most likely succumb to defeat in South Korea today.
Pohang Steelers have developed experience and maturity very rapidly in this competition and should have too much for their opponents today. Sanfrecce Hiroshima not only failed to impress in their opening Asian Champions League game but also drew their opening game of the J-League at home to Shimizu S-Pulse - a poor result by their standards - so I expect a disgruntled and inexperienced Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lose today at what are rather generous odds.
Verdict: Pohang Steelers to win at 13/10.
Teplice vs Viktoria Plzen - home win at 10/11.
Teplice currently lead the Gambrinus Liga after a decent start following their return from the winter break as they drew at Ceske Budejovice and won at home to Bohemians Prague. Although the results themselves may not appear much on paper, what I would say is that a side needs consistency to win titles and the problem with most Czech sides in challenging Slavia Prague & Sparta Prague is a lack of that consistency, something that Teplice are rapidly gaining. Teplice don't play particularly good football but they're very efficient with it which is the key to their success. They've got good spirit as they showed by coming from behind last match to win and are strong at home as they've proven already this season with five wins and three draws from eight games. Teplice don't score many goals - approximately 1.5 goals per home game - but they boast one of the best defensive records in the division with just four goals conceded in their eight home games - an average of a goal every two games. Teplice should have enough momentum and spirit to make their ability count - particularly at home - so will prove a real force for Viktoria Plzen today.
Viktoria Plzen are a strange side. They don't play good football but tend to focus all of their tactics around keeping goalscoring and goal-conceding low whilst avoiding defeat at all costs. They've only lost two out of their nine home games on the road this season which is largely due to them boasting the best defensive record in the division away from home - a goal conceded for over every two games played. Viktoria Plzen aren't particularly dominant on the road as they sacrifice their limited potency in favour of defensive prowess. However, their two defeats on the road this season have come against strong home sides with strong defensive ability - Banik Ostrava and Pribram - in narrow home wins so I expect something similar today.
Teplice are better than Viktoria Plzen but there's not masses in it. However, home advantage favours the hosts and all that supports the visitors is their strong defensive displays. That said, Viktoria Plzen don't have a good record here with seven defeats in their last eight visits and that might just play on their minds today too. Either way, the odds on the home win are quite generous as Teplice have more than enough to see the job done in this game.
Verdict: Teplice to win at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Shandong Luneng, Gamba Osaka, Suwon Bluewings, Sepahan, Al Hilal, Grasshoppers Zurich, Girondins de Bordeaux, Airbus.
Recommended bets:
Shandong Luneng, Gamba Osaka, and Pohang Steelers at 6/1.
Suwon Bluewings, Pakhtakor Tashkent, Al Hilal, and Sepahan at 6/1.
Teplice, Girondins de Bordeaux, Grasshoppers Zurich, and Airbus at 6/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Real Madrid vs Olympique Lyonnais (5) 2-2
Manchester United vs AC Milan (7) over 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Once Caldas Manizales vs Monterrey (5) 2-2
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Banfield (6) over 2.5 goals
Independiente Medellin vs Corinthians (6) under 2.5 goals
Alianza Lima vs Juan Aurich (5) 1-1
Caracas vs Flamengo (6) 1-1
Asian Champions League:
Shandong Luneng vs Adelaide United (7) 1-0
Gamba Osaka vs Henan Jianye (8) over 2.5 goals
Pohang Steelers vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6) 2-1
Armed Forces vs Suwon Bluewings (8) 1-3
Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Shabab (7) 1-0
Sepahan vs Al Ain (8) 2-0
Al Ahli vs Al Sadd (5) over 2.5 goals
Al Hilal vs Mes Keman (8) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Charleroi vs Lokeren (6) 2-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Turnhout vs Boussu Dour Borinage (5)
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Teplice vs Viktoria Plzen (7) 1-0
English Premier League:
Burnley vs Stoke City (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Reading vs Derby County (6) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Auxerre (7) 2-1
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Beira-Mar vs Estoril (6)
Serbian Super Liga:
Napredak vs Hajduk Kula (6) 1-0
Jagodina vs Partizan Belgrade (7) 1-2
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Domzale vs Nafta Lendava (6) 1-1
Drava vs Rudar Velenje (6) 0-1
Interblock Ljubljana vs Gorica (7) 1-1
Koper vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) 2-1
Celje vs Maribor (7) 1-2
Swiss Super League:
Grasshoppers Zurich vs Aarau (8) 2-0
Bellinzona vs St.Gallen (6) 0-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Biel-Bienne vs Lugano (5)
Kriens vs Servette (6)
Stade Nyonnais vs Locarno (7)
Schaffhausen vs Wohlen (6) over 2.5 goals
Wil vs Vaduz (7)
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Deportivo Tachira (7) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Cefn Druids vs Airbus (8) 2-1
Haverfordwest County vs Prestatyn Town (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Bolivar La Paz vs Estudiantes De La Plata
Today sees the return of the Meistriliiga, which is the Estonian Premier League. This will seem of mass insignificance to the vast majority of you but it's one of my favourite leagues - not due to the quality of the league but the reliability of the results. Saying that, it'll probably all go tits-up today but still - keep an eye on it for accumulator fodder and value - bookies don't monitor this league very well!
Today's featured game is the Copa Libertadores game between Bolivar La Paz and Estudiantes De La Plata. The Bolivians have already lost two Copa Libertadores games and simply aren't good enough to do any damage in this competition. Visitors Estudiantes De La Plata are in a bit of sporadic form currently but their overall ability is unquestionable so it should be an interesting game at high altitude.
Bolivar La Paz have already lost their two Copa Libertadores games this season, conceding five goals and scoring just once. They lost 2-0 at Juan Aurich, which is fairly respectable considering how bad Bolivian sides are on the road, but have also lost 3-1 at home to Alianza Lima, where Bolivar are supposed to be strongest. Home advantage is all that Bolivar have over other sides when playing in this competition but even that isn't serving them well currently due to atrocious defending. Bolivar will be happy that their domestic campaign started since their last Copa Libertadores game, giving them additional match practice, in which they won at Jorge Wilstermann. Bolivar have a very tough game tonight, however, as they host last year's Copa Libertadores runners-up.
Estudiantes De La Plata are a bit frustrating at the moment, aren't they? They've lost at home to Argentinos Juniors and away to Alianza Lima of late, two rather surprising results, and yet have annihlated Juan Aurich and San Lorenzo de Almagro already this season so what to make of them? Their ability is unquestionable; their reliability has become dubious. Estudiantes' problem of late appears to be a combination of two things - goal-shy displays and over-confidence. One thing is certain, however - they take this competition very seriously and will look to win this game for sure. The altitude is a real test for them as their last test in Peru saw them battered 4-1. However, Juan Aurich are at least a competent side - Bolivar La Paz are not. Estudiantes need a game where they can unlreash their pent-up goal rush that is building inside them, much like Lanus at Blooming Santa Cruz in Bolivia of late, so this could well be the catalyst for Estudiantes to starting playing well again.
Betting against the altitude always leaves me wary so do approach this game with caution. However, I can't ignore the fact that Estudiantes are at least five times better than Bolivar La Paz - there's such a gulf here. Estudiantes lost their only away game in the Copa Libertadores this season convincingly - they walked into the game over-confidently and underestimated their opponents. I don't envision the same mistake today against much lesser opponents, opponents that have already lost at home to an average side this season. Estudiantes are far too good for Bolivar to deal with and odds of this calibre are worth taking in my opinion.
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win at evens.
Tuesday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Jeonbuk Motors vs Kashima Antlers - away win at 29/20.
I'm basing this bet on two things because it's difficult to call the early stages of the Asian Champions League with such contrast in leagues, styles, and even geographically. My factors are simple: experience and ability.
Jeonbuk Motors are a South Korean side who enter this competition for the first time in three years and they didn't leave a lasting impression then, winning just two of their six group games, one of which was against a fellow South Korean side. They've won their opening game in this year's Asian Champions League but frankly any side that cannot beat an Indonesian side in this competition needs serious assistance due to the severe contrast in leagues. South Korean football is definitely on the up and they'll be up for this game for rivalry reasons due to the visitors being Japanese. However, the hosts are somewhat inexperienced in this competition after years of being out of it and I suspect it might show today.
Kashima Antlers are one of Japan's biggest and best clubs. They're playing in this competition for the third season in a row as a result and are looking to further their reputation as one of the better sides in it. They breezed through the group stage last season and were unlucky to be knocked out by Seoul in the following round after drawing 2-2 and going out on penalties despite playing with ten men for a good portion of the game. Kashima Antlers will no doubt have that in mind as they travel to face another South Korean side today and it may even spur them on a little. Kashima Antlers are a very good side with a lot of experience and even bring some momentum into this game after beating title rivals Urawa Red Diamonds in the J-League at weekend so the visitors do have a good chance today.
South Korean and Japanese clubs naturally have a big rivalry for obvious reasons so they usually produce good games to watch for varying reasons. However, Kashima Antlers are simply a better side than Jeonbuk Motors. Neither side will lie down for this game so I expect a lot of goals but I also expect the experience and ability of Kashima Antlers to win them the game at rather generous odds for a proven side in this tournament.
Verdict: Kashima Antlers to win at 29/20.
Notts County vs Chesterfield - home win at 4/5.
Notts County have won their last three games consecutively, including a difficult but convincing 3-0 win at Accrington Stanley. Notts County are now unbeaten in five League Two games and are well on their way to building up a superb burst of momentum. Notts County are the second-highest goalscoring side in the division so backing them always has that extra reassurance. Notts County have already won nine out of fifteen home games this season, losing just once along the way, so they're a strong side at home. Notts County have rattled in nine goals in their last three games without conceding a goal so they're absolutely on fire at the moment. They average scoring over two goals per home game and boast the best defensive home record in the division by averaging conceding a goal ever 1.5 games. Ultimately, the wealthy Notts County are looking very good for this game for various reasons and stand a good chance of taking three points tonight.
Visitors Chesterfield had their excellent run of form brought to an abrupt halt by Aldershot Town lately. They recovered well by winning at Cheltenham Town last match but their momentum was interrupted so they're not looking as menacing as they had been prior to their defeat. Chestefield's massive strength is their dominant home form with their Achilles heel being their haphazard away form. Chesterfield have already lost eight out of seventeen away games in League Two this season and are one of just two sides in the top eight of League Two to have conceded more than they've scored on the road. That kind of record isn't one to take to an in-form and potent Notts County so I think they're going to struggle tonight>
Both of these sides are very capable at either ground irrespective of Chesterfield's relatively poor away form so it'll be interesting to see what occurs. However, with the irresistable form of Notts County at the moment and the unreliable nature of Chesterfield on the road, you have to feel that there's value in backing the moneybags Notts County tonight!
Verdict: Notts County to win at 4/5.
Sillamae Kalev vs Flora Tallinn - away win at 9/5.
These odds intrigue me. Sillamae Kalev had a very good Meistriliiga campaign last season but they're not a better side than Flora Tallinn irrespective of whether they finished above them or not. Estonia is about two teams - Flora Tallinn and Levadia Tallinn. I won't deny that Flora Tallinn have weakened in ability of late but they're still the second-strongest club in Estonia so this game certainly has my attention.
It'll be interesting to see how Sillamae Kalev deal with the pressure of being expected to do well this season especially as I don't consider them to be a particularly good side - perhaps on par with the likes of Trans Narva or even Nomme Kalju. Sillamae Kalev won twelve out of eighteen home games in the Meistriliiga last season so they're certainly a force to be reckoned with. However, I don't believe in one-off glory like Sillamae Kalev until it's proven consistently. I believe that Sillamae Kalev's home record against Flora Tallinn reveals a lot more with four home games against Flora Tallinn having resulted in three convincing away wins and one fortune home win. Flora Tallinn have won seven out of ther last eight meetings with Sillamae Kalev at either ground and are a bigger and better side so it'll be interesting to see how well the bookies have looked at this game.
Flora Tallinn lost the Estonian Super Cup against Levadia Tallinn a few days ago and they won't like that but competitive match experience is competitive match experience so at least Flora Tallinn have something to bring into this game. The gap between Levadia and Flora is increasing each season with Levadia Tallinn now the unquestionable giants of this league. However, Flora very much remain the second biggest side and I can't see that changing due to just one good season for Sillamae Kalev and one below-par season for Flora Tallinn. Although I think Sillamae Kalev will give Flora Tallinn a good game today, I find it hard to overlook odds of 9/5 for the better side to win any game!
Verdict: Flora Tallinn to win at 9/5.
Bala Town vs Newtown - lay Bala Town at 10/11.
Bala Town have now lost two games consecutively so their momentum has taken a sizeable dent. They were facing two of Wales' top three sides so their defeats are very much understandable for the newly-promoted outfit. However, good runs can't last forever and Bala Town's has certainly been punctured lately so it'll be interesting to see how they react to that. The problem I have with Bala Town is that they don't score enough goals. Despite their defensively assured displays, they just don't score enough so when their luck does go against them, they're going to find it hard to pull themselves out of the mire again. That's what I'm banking on occurring tonight against Newtown so I find it hard to believe that Bala Town will win the game.
Newtown are some way down the table but this is a little misleading in some ways. They're in thirteenth place due to their shoddy defensive displays and that certainly is a concern ahead of a complicated trip to Bala Town. However, let's not gloss over the fact that Newtown are good goalscorers on the road when measured up against their actual away form with an average of approximately 1.5 goals scored per away game. Newtown are more experienced in this division than Bala Town are and that could count against the hosts tonight. Let's also not overlook the fact that Newtown have won two out of their last three away games with their only defeat being against one of the big three in Wales and yet they still managed to score twice. Newtown have notched up six goals in three away games so they're not to be underestimated tonight.
Ultimately, I don't rate a previously driven Bala Town that has suffered a couple of heavy reality checks in recent times against an experienced Newtown side that score a good amount of goals on the road and a Newtown side that are playing well away from home currently. The odds on Bala Town surprise me tonight considering they've won less than half of their home games this season so I do like the look of laying them tonight.
Verdict: Lay Bala Town at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Arsenal, Changchun Yatai, Bury, Queens Park Rangers, Nomme Kalju, Levadia Tallinn, Tampere United, Rangers, Tampines Rovers, Llanelli
Recommended bets:
Arsenal, West Bromwich Albion, Notts County, Bury, and Queens Park Rangers at 9/1.
Levadia Tallinn, Flora Tallinn, and Nomme Kalju at 6/1.
Estudiantes De La Plata, Rangers, Tampines Rovers, and Llanelli at 6/1.
Changchun Yatai, Kawasaki Frontale, Esteghlal, and Al Ittihad at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Fiorentina vs Bayern Munich (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Arsenal vs Porto (8) over 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Racing Club Montevideo vs Cerro Porteno (5) 1-1
Bolivar La Paz vs Estudiantes De La Plata (7) over 2.5 goals
Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Deportivo Cuenca vs Morelia (6) under 2.5 goals
Asian Champions League:
Chanchun Yatai vs Persipura Jayapura (9) -1.75 handicap
Melbourne Victory vs Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma (6) 1-1
Kawasaki Frontale vs Beijing Guoan (8) over 2.5 goals
Jeonbuk Motors vs Kashima Antlers (6) 1-2
Esteghlal vs Al Jazira (8) 2-0
Al Wahda vs Bunyodkor (5) 1-1
Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli (6) 1-1
Al Ittihad vs Zob Ahan (7) 2-1
English Premier league:
Sunderland vs Bolton Wanderers (7) 0-0
Portsmouth vs Birmingham City (5) 1-0
English Championship:
Peterborough United vs Sheffield United (6)
Preston North End vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Watford vs Swansea City (7)
Ipswich Town vs Cardiff City (6)
West Bromwich Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday (7) over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace vs Bristol City (6)
Queens Park Rangers vs Plymouth Argyle (8)
English League One:
Tranmere Rovers vs Leeds United (6)
Carlisle United vs Millwall (6)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town (5)
Oldham Athletic vs Leyton Orient (6)
English League Two:
Accrington Stanley vs Macclesfield Town (6)
Bury vs Darlington (8)
Crewe Alexandra vs Grimsby Town (6)
Port Vale vs Bradford City (6)
Notts County vs Chesterfield (7) over 2.5 goals
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Sillamae Kalev vs Flora Tallinn (5) 1-2
Flora Paide vs Lootus (6) 1-0
Kuressaare vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (6) 1-1
Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva (8) over 2.5 goals
Nomme Kalju vs Viljandi Tulevik (8) 2-1
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Tampere United vs JJK Jyvaskyla (8) under 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
Kilmarnock vs Rangers (8) 0-1
St.Mirren vs Motherwell (6) 1-2
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Young Lions (8) 2-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Mineros de Guayana vs Trujillanos (6) 2-1
Wales Premier League:
Llanelli vs Port Talbot Town (9) over 2.5 goals
Bala Town vs Newtown (4) 1-1
Carmarthen Town vs The New Saints (7) 0-1
Welshpool Town vs Connah's Quay Nomads (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!
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- Internazionale (84%, 41 Votes)
- AC Milan (10%, 5 Votes)
- AS Roma (6%, 3 Votes)
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