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Roskilde vs AB Copenhagen

Today's featured game is the Danish Division 1 game between Roskilde and giants AB Copenhagen. Although it's still early in the season, I think it's fair to say that both sides have started as they mean to go on this season with hosts Roskilde battling against relegation and visitors AB Copenhagen expected to compete for that ever-elusive promotion place.

Roskilde have already lost four out of their first five games, drawing the other encounter. Admittedly, only one of those games was at home but they've already lost to two sides this season that they arguably shouldn't be losing to if they intend to prove that they have the quality to stay in this division. Roskilde managed a credible 2-2 draw at potent Skive last match but they'll need a lot more than that to shatter a very good AB Copenhagen today. Roskilde have played AB Copenhagen five times since gaining promotion to this division a couple of years ago and they've lost every occasion, twice at home and thrice away from home. Roskilde tend to give AB Copenhagen a good game as they're a pretty potent side themselves but their weak defence is almost always shattered by the better sides in the division and AB Copenhagen are certainly one of them.

Only eventually-promoted AC Horsens won more away games than AB Copenhagen last season, which should be testament to how good today's visitors actually are. It's a mystery as to why they're still yet to be promoted but it's surely only a matter of time. The reason AB do so well on the road is an obvious one; they simply outscore their opponents. The departure of promising youngster Nicolai Jorgensen over the summer to German giants Bayer 04 Leverkusen looked set to disrupt the title contenders but the introduction of Kim Christensen has bolstered their attack, leaving them not only with their new signing but also fairly experienced campaigner Nick Christensen and emerging youngster Benjamin Lee so AB aren't short on goalscorers. The aspect of the game known as "defending" continues to elude this promising side due to their attacking tactics but I really don't see that hindering them in a division where they're one of the best sides in it. AB haven't started their campaign too well but their quality is still convincing. Bizarrely, they've yet to win a home game in two attempts as they've drawn twice. However, equally as bizarrely, they've won both of their two away games despite one of those games being a tricky tie with Fredericia. One thing that AB always bring to their games is goals, however, and that always makes them a potent threat in games against inferior opponents, naturally.

I'm surprised the bookies have been so lenient here with the odds, really. Generally, you'll find AB at 1/3 for home wins in this division against the majority of their opponents and that's merited more often than not - there's a big quality gap in this division between the likes of AB, AGF etc. and the rest. Roskilde are notorious relegation-battlers and that doesn't look set to change today. I expect an attacking game from both sides as neither knows how to defend so we should see a lot of goals here. However, for me, the away win is too generously priced so that's my call here.

Verdict: AB Copenhagen to win at 23/20.

Sunday's Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Ethiopia vs Guinea - away win at evens.

The bookies are usually spot-on with their odds on the African Nations Qualifiers which is why I rarely find any value there. However, unless I'm missing something massive here, this looks a real steal. Ethiopia are a very poor footballing side. They have no big names, no experience, and simply don't play good football. They're hosting a Guinea side that is not only very talented but very experienced too. With the likes of Ismael Bangoura, Souleymane Youla, Kamil Zayatte, Pascal Feindouno, and Ibrahim Yattara in their ranks, I'd honestly fancy Guinea against most sides in Africa. There's some tremendous players in this squad in both defence and attack and I can't see them doing anything but winning this game against their poor hosts with ease. Why Guinea are at evens and not 2/5 for this game is beyond me! 

Verdict: Guinea to win at evens.

Velez Sarsfield vs River Plate - home win at evens.

This game is one of many Buenos Aires derbies throughout the Primera Division campaign and although it's not the main one for either club, it's still a very big affair. It's hard to read too much into statistics because of the above information but what is factual is that Velez are currently the best side in Argentina. River Plate used to be one of the top dogs in Argentina too but along with bitter rivals Boca Juniors, they've slipped down the pecking order in Argentinian football in recent years. However, River won't simply lie down for this game - they want their crown(s) back - so they'll feel a particularly strong level of hatred for usurpers Velez today and thus I expect the very real derby feel for this game.

Three wins in four games says that Velez are the title threat that they were expected to be pre-Apertura. Only Boca Juniors shattered their stiff resolve and that was thanks to an inspirational home display and you know what Boca are like when La Bombonera is rocking! It's not a bad record at all, to be blunt, and you can see how seriously Velez are taking this game today as they rested players mid-week for the Copa Sudamericana First Leg at home to Banfield, namely star striker Silva, Argentina international defender Otameni, and key playmaker Moralez, although both came on in the second-half to give Velez a bit of life. The Apertura crown means more to Velez than the Sudamericana and for obvious reasons too as that gives them a passage to the Libertadores, which is held in much higher regard than the Sudamericana. Therefore, expect a full-blooded and determined show from the hosts tonight.

River Plate aren't what they were but they've impressed me en mass this season by starting to recapture some of their old form. However, they were beyond disappointing in their last away game against Argentinos Juniors and could have lost if their hosts were able to score a goal once in a while. They were quite poor in their other away game this season but somehow ground out a 1-0 win at Huracan. Veteran playmaker Ortega is looking as good as ever and little Buonanotte is gradually beginning to fufill his potential. River will be pleased to have given new striker Pavone some game time at Argentinos last match because although emerging striker Mori is scoring goals for them, they still lack a proper target man and he fits the bill perfectly. When he's in the team week in, week out, then you'll see a proper River Plate side. However, that time isn't yet so I fear for them tonight as I don't see where the goals are coming from.

Velez won this fixture 3-1 last time around and with the quality balance having shifted very little since then, a similar scoreline wouldn't surprise me. Don't wade heavily into this one as it's not only a derby but two ex-River players (Zapata and Fernandez) could feature for Velez and ex-Velez striker (Caruso) could feature for River Plate so cards are not unexpected here! Nonetheless, the home win still looks decent value to me although I'd leave it if the odds drop below evens.

Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win at evens.

Guarani vs Fluminense - away win at 5/4.

Guarani are a good enough home side in Serie A so I can understand the odds on the away win today although I don't agree with them. They've only lost here once this season and that was 3-0 against a rampant Internacional. They've drawn four times and won four times aside from that so counter-attacking Guarani tend to keep it tight at the back and take their chances when given them. Guarani's strength in defence is what keeps them in the division as they seemingly believe that goalscoring was a thing of the past that would never take off. Guarani have a ceiling with their ability, however, and that's visible by the fact that when they've hosted Palmeiras, Internacional, Sao Paulo, and Cruzeiro, they've failed to beat all of them. I can't accept Guarani trying to attack in this game - they're going to defend here and that could be fatal tonight.

Why? Well, Fluminense have some  very gifted passers of the ball i.e. Deco and they've got some bloody good goalscorers too i.e. Emerson, Washington, and Fred, although Fred has been out of the side since July with injury and misses this game despite returning to training lately. Fluminense's line-up is reportedly Fernando Henrique, Mariano, Gum, Julio Cesar, Andre Luis, Valencia, Fernando, Conca, Deco, Washington, and Emerson. The return of Valencia is a big boost for Fluminense and in my eyes, the named squad above is more than good enough to win this game. You can look at Fluminense's recent form of late and point out that they've drawn three out of their last four games, which is quite accurate! However, consider that one of those was a derby with Vasco da Gama and the two others were against Sao Paulo (in which they still played better in but lost their lead due to goalkeeping errors and missed a late penalty too) and Palmeiras (due to a last minute equaliser from Ewerton) so they've been a bit unlucky of late, really. Their quality hasn't suffered and they still bring a strong side into this game so I fancy them to win this game today at decent odds of 5/4.

Verdict: Fluminense to win at 5/4.

Avai vs Atletico Paranaense - home win at 3/4.

Avai haven't been at their best lately but I attribute that to their continental committments and thus stretched squad rather than a decline in ability. Avai are generally a very robust and determined side with plenty of goals in them, especially at home, and that's the Avai that I expect to turn up tonight. They've already won five out of nine at home this season with just two defeats along the way because they average scoring over two goals per home game, thus allowing us to generally overlook their defensive ineptitude. No Serie A side has scored more home goals than Avai and only giants Corinthians can match their daunting goalscoring tally so I do have a lot of respect for the hosts tonight. Only one out of Avai's last four defeats in their last five games has been a Serie A home game so I'm not reading much into their recent down-trend in form as they don't travel well and they've had committments elsewhere. I'm expecting little Avai to be back in business tonight though and let's face it - they're generously priced against an Atletico Paranaense side that has already lost seven out of nine away games in Serie A this season. I have respect for Atletico too, particularly after a run of four games without defeat, but the fact remains that any kind of decent side playing at home has a very good chance of beating Atletico because they don't score enough goals away from home. Despite being eighth in the Serie A table, nobody else in the division has lost as many away games as Atletico and that includes the sides currently in the relegation zone! The fact that they average conceding two goals per away game and that they have lost both meetings with Avai since Avai were promoted should fill the visitors with fear tonight, especially given how potent their hosts are. For me, Avai are too generously priced here to be ignored so my call is the home win.

Verdict: Avai to win at 3/4.

Envigado vs Real Cartagena - away win at 13/10.

If this bet comes in then make sure you have your lottery tickets to hand because I can't remember the last time I won a bet in Colombia on an away win - it's rather unheard of! However, the fact that Envigado have lost all seven Primera A games so far this season and the fact that Real Cartagena are a top six side is enough to convince me that they've got a chance here, even by Colombian standards! Envigado aren't terrible defensively - they're usually quite hard to break down - but they offer next to nothing in front of goal which is why everyone keeps betting them. They've already lost three home games and this really should be their fourth as Real Cartagena's sluggish start has started to gather momentum with no defeats in four consecutive Primera A games, winning at America de Cali and claiming a respectable 1-1 draw with giants Independiente Medellin in their last two away games. Real Cartagena, to be blunt, are starting to show their potential and as they're a good side anyway, I fancy them tonight.

Please don't view this as a dead cert purely by orgasming over the Primera A league table - Colombian football doesn't work like that more often than not. Most sides in this division can beat each other on their respective days but in this instance, the chances of the home side losing are good and the chances of the away win putting up a good show are good so it's worth a punt here.

Verdict: Real Cartagena to win at 13/10.

HJK II vs RoPS Rovaniemi - lay RoPS Rovaniemi at 23/20.

It's been coming for a long time but I'm finally going to lay RoPS Rovaniemi outright because I can't sit by and watch them keep failing to win anymore without attempting to profit from it. We had some joy last week when RoPS somehow lost against relegation favourites MP Mikkeli, which takes their run to six conecutive games without a win. They've drawn five of those games and have failed to score in four of them so RoPS' problems are very apparent at the moment, although they're also very confusing as they're not missing any key players, to my knowledge. RoPS are by far the best side in the Ykkonen but they're not playing well at all so I don't see them winning today. It aids my cause that HJK II not only need the points to stave off the threat of relegation but that they've drawn two consecutive games to give them some momentum to take into this game (and end their barren form!) and also that they've only lost three out of ten home games this season. Interestingly enough, HJK II were the first side in seven Ykkonen  games this season to take points off RoPS Rovaniemi in a 1-1 draw in the far north of Finland. That was when RoPS were in-form; now that they're struggling, I don't see a RoPS win here.

Approach this one with caution as RoPS really are the best side in the Ykkonen by a long way but there's too much value in laying them today for me to ignore.

Verdict: Lay RoPS Rovaniemi at 23/20.

Varese vs Empoli - home win at 21/20.

I've sat back and observed Varese for two weeks now to see if that was suspected regarding this side turned out to be true and it has become so. Varese were tipped as being the surprise package this year following promotion from Serie C and a win at Torino and a draw at home to promotion favourites Atalanta Bergamo in their first two games has convinced me that they're very capable of doing exactly what Cesena did last year. As I've mentioned previously, the gap in quality between Italian divisions is generally very small which is why promoted clubs tend to do well and Varese are no exception to that ruling. Varese are very much a united front and have few stars but function extremely well as a unit and rarely concede as a result so don't write the hosts off this season.

I was waiting for the right time to back Varese if their form continued and now I have one as they face Empoli. You all know how good Empoli generally are if you follow Serie B but their form is generally restricted to being superb at home. Away from home, Empoli really struggle as their horrific record of fourteen defeats in twenty-one away games last season indicates all too well. The only side that lost more games than Empoli away from home last season was eventually-relegated Salernitana so Empoli have a lot to do to prove their promotion aspirations are nothing more than dreams based upon their past. Empoli's problem last season was defending - they conceded over two goals per away game on average and given that they didn't manage to average scoring a goal per away game, it's easy to see where they went wrong. Empoli still have a presentable side and aren't easy to beat but their success hinges on their strike duo of Coralli and Eder, who were responsible for forty-four out of Empoli's sixty-six goals in Serie B last season. However, Brazilian striker Eder has been sold to Brescia so what on earth are Empoli going to do this season? Not a lot in my eyes. Coralli is still a threat but without Eder and without a defence, I really don't rate this Empoli side. They've won at Frosinone already this season in a free-for-all attacking display from both sides but at the first hurdle of facing a tactical game, Empoli failed to produce the goods, drawing a blank against newly-promoted Pescara in a 0-0 draw at home. If they can't win at home, they're not going to be a threat away so contrary to what the size and stature of both clubs might have you thinking, I think that the odds are quite fair today.

Although there is obviously risk here given that Empoli still do have some good players, I don't rate their attack without Eder and I really don't rate their defence so an organised Varese could and should really take advantage of their more illustrious opponents today.

Verdict: Vareset to win at 21/20.

Gombak United vs Armed Forces - home win at 17/10.

I can't quite work out why physical Gombak United are priced so long to beat a massively out-of-sorts Armed Forces side today but the odds are far too good to pass up on. Gombak have already won eight out of twelve home games in the S-League this season and only Etoile and Home United can better that record. They've won those eight games through clinical finishing and well-marshalled defending, conceding an average of a goal per every two home games, a record which only Etoile can better currently. Gombak also have a terrific home record against Armed Forces in recent times with three consecutive home wins. In fact, Gombak won at Armed Forces earlier this season, which shows the descent of Armed Forces from the top of Singaporean football. Gombak's recent form isn't outstanding but their well-organised displays really should see them beat a vastly unorganised and leaky Armed Forces side. Armed Forces average conceding over a goal per away game and with four defeats in their last five games whilst conceding twelve goals, I don't fancy their chances today. Armed Forces always have that threat of scoring goals but Duric's departure in attack has clearly impacted them and they don't possess the same threat anymore, in my opinion. They've failed to score in three out of their last five games and it's going to take more than an unconvincing win at home to Sengkang Punggol to convince me that they're anywhere near back to their best so my call is the home win today at surprisingly generous odds.

Verdict: Gombak United to win at 17/10.

Barcelona II vs Deportivo Xerez - home win at 6/5.

Barcelona II stated their intent in the Segunda Liga by winning their opening game at Celta de Vigo following a convincing display and have had a nice long rest since that game as Spanish rules mean that they can't compete in the Copa del Rey for obvious reasons. Recently-relegated Deportivo Xerez competed mid-week, however, facing the tough trip to Gimnasic de Tarragona and impressively winning. However, the trip to Barcelona is their third game in seven days and given that Xerez were relegated from the Primera Liga due to no strength in-depth, I'd be surprised to see them get anything from a trip to face a very talented and determined Barcelona II side. Barcelona II is a combination of a few players yet to make the Barcelona grade and some that yet might (i.e. Giovani Dos Santos' brother Jonathan Dos Santos) so there's always a hunger in the Barcelona II side, which is good as there's zero motivation for them whatsoever to win this league as promotion is in fact an impossibility for Barcelona II. I half-expected Xerez to put up a good show in the Segunda Liga following relegation as they're a battling side but 4-1 humbling at home against Cartagena in their opening Segunda Liga game demonstrated how poorly-prepared they are for this division so they should be in for a rough ride today. Perhaps it was naive of me to expect more from Xerez given that they lost midfielders Armanteros (Rayo Vallecano de Madrid), Carlos Calvo (Granada), Keita (Racing Club Lens), Garcia (Granada), and Orellana (Granada), not to mention defenders Malia (Racing Santander), Gioda (Quilmes), and goalkeeper Renan (Internacional) but I still fancied Xerez's battling spirit to prevail. However, they're really struggling and tough target man Martin Bermejo will be massively instrumental if Xerez are to get anything out of this season. I think the trip to a feisty Barcelona II side is a bridge too far for them at the moment though so my call is a home win for newly-promoted Barcelona II today.

Verdict: Barcelona II to win at 6/5.

Accumulator fodder:

Benin, Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana, AGF Aarhus, Sarpsborg 08.

Recommended bets:

Guinea, Benin, Egypt, and Nigeria at 2/1.

Avai and Fluminense at 3/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!

African Nations Qualifiers:

Liberia vs Zimbabwe (6) 0-1
Mozambique vs Libya (7) 2-0
Democratic Republic of Congo vs Senegal (6) 1-1
Swaziland vs Ghana (8) 1-2
Nigeria vs Madagascar (8) -1.5 handicap
Ethiopia vs Guinea (7) 0-2
Benin vs Burundi (8) 2-0
Egypt vs Sierra Leone (8) over 2.5 goals

International Friendlies:

Jamaica vs Costa Rica (6) 2-2

Argentinian Primera Division:

Quilmes vs Huracan (6) 1-1
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Atletico Lanus (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Banfield vs Tigre (6) 1-0
Velez Sarsfield vs River Plate (7) 2-1

Australian A-League:

Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar (4) under 2.5 goals
Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix (5) 1-1

Brazilian Serie A:

Avai vs Atletico Paranaense (7) over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro (5) 1-1
Guarani vs Fluminense (7) 1-2
Flamengo vs Santos (6) under 2.5 goals
Atletico Mineiro vs Sao Paulo (6) 2-1
Atletico Goianiense vs Vitoria (4) over 2.5 goals
Internacional vs Gremio Prudente (6) under 2.5 goals

Chilean Primera Division:

Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile (5) 1-1
Union Espanola vs Everton (5) 2-1

Colombian Primera A:

Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Independiente Medellin (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Deportes Quindio vs Cucuta Deportivo (5) 0-0
Deportivo Cali vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 2-2
Deportivo Pereira vs Cortulua (6) 1-1
Envigado vs Real Cartagena (6) 0-1
Millonarios Bogota vs Atletico Huila (7) 1-1

Danish 1st Division:

Hvidovre vs Fyn (4) draw no bet
Vestjaelland vs Skive (6) both sides to score, over 3.5 goals
Roskilde vs AB Copenhagen (8)
Vejle vs Hjorring (6)
Kolding vs AGF Aarhus (8)

English League One:

Brentford vs Sheffield Wednesday (6)

Finnish Ykkonen:

HJK II vs RoPS Rovaniemi (5)

Italian Serie B:

Modena vs Padova (6)
Ascoli vs Albinoleffe (5)
Atalanta Bergamo vs Frosinone (8)
Cittadella vs Novara (6)
Grosseto vs Vicenza (6)
Portosummaga vs Sassuolo (6)
Reggina vs Piacenza (5)
Triestina vs Pescara (7)
Varese vs Empoli (6)
Livorno vs Siena (5)

Mexican Primera Division:

Guadalajara vs Estudiantes Tecos (6) 1-0

Norwegian Divisjon 1:

Strommen vs Ranheim (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Nybergsund vs Alta (6)
Sarpsborg 08 vs Bryne (8)
Tromsdalen vs Sandnes Ulf (5)

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

Sportivo Trinidense vs Tacuary (6) 1-1
Sol de America vs Sport Colombia (7) 2-0
Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Asuncion (4) 1-0

Polish Liga 1:

Kolejarz Stroze vs Gornik Polkowice (5)

Singaporean S-League:

Gombak United vs Armed Forces (6) over 2.5 goals

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Alcorcon vs Ponferradina (4) draw no bet
Numancia vs Celta de Vigo (5)
Tenerife vs Salamanca (6)
Granada vs Real Valladolid (5) over 2.5 goals
Barcelona II vs Deportivo Xerez (6) over 2.5 goals

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Montevideo Wanderers vs Tacuarembo (6) 1-0
River Plate Montevideo vs Central Espanol (6) 2-1
Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Club Montevideo (7) over 2.5 goals
Fenix vs Penarol (6) 1-2

Welsh Premier League:

Bala Town vs Haverfordwest County (6) 2-1
Neath Athletic vs Newtown (7) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!