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Today’s featured game is the English Premier League encounter between Bolton Wanderers and Chelsea. At the start of the season, you would probably have laughed if someone had even suggested that Bolton would be a mere eight points adrift of Chelsea at this stage of the campaign but here we are with that exact scenario, which is testament to both the great work of Owen Coyle and also the poor season that Chelsea are having.

Just as he did with Burnley, Owen Coyle has set Bolton Wanderers up to be a real force at home. The fact that only Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Newcastle United have scored more goals at home than Bolton have illustrates that point rather well. They average scoring two goals per home game and have only been defeated once in eleven home games in the Premier League this season. However, Bolton do have one of the highest records when it comes to conceding goals at home; well, by top ten standards, at least! Owen Coyle has recognised that, hence the signing of Middlesbrough centre-back David Wheater within the last week. Either way, I don’t expect an overnight solution to Bolton’s defensive issues so we should see the usual Bolton approach today. Bolton’s injury list is gradually lessening but losing Holden and Steinsson for tonight’s game would hurt them a lot, in my view. Steinsson is a solid full-back and Bolton look vulnerable down the flanks without him and American box-to-box midfielder Holden has had a very good season indeed, already establishing himself very well in this division. Indeed, Holden caused Chelsea a lot of problems in the game at Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago, which Chelsea fortuitously won 1-0, so I hope plays tonight to give Bolton that additional extra confidence. Either way, the duo of Davies and Elmander in attack have been instrumental for Bolton this season and both should be starting tonight so Chelsea will have their work cut out to keep those two out. In fact, only Liverpool and Fulham have kept clean sheets at the Reebok Stadium this season despite Bolton having hosted the likes of Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, whom Bolton scored six goals against in total so it’s fair to say that this side isn’t the same one as last season. Coyle has instilled a great belief in his players and it really shows, especially in attack, so I’ll give Bolton a chance tonight as they should be a real handful for Chelsea.

Chelsea are slowly easing back to winning ways again but not in their usual driven manner. No, they still look rather nervous to me, to be honest. Fair play to them though – if you win games when not playing well then you’re doing something right and that’s what Chelsea did at weekend against Blackburn Rovers, winning 2-0. I’ve criticised Blackburn boss Kean since his appointment as boss because I didn’t think he was good enough but he’s actually done very well for them thus far so I hold my hands up and wish him the best. To me, that made Chelsea’s win a bit more relevant because Blackburn were in decent form and had a good level of morale too. Therefore, Chelsea bring some momentum into this game and that should be respected here. However, their poor away form has continued into 2011 with Chelsea having failed to win six consecutive Premier League away games now, the most recent of which was a disheartening defeat to bottom of the table club Wolverhampton Wanderers. Even the return of Lampard hasn’t inspired Chelsea and the fact that Essien is unable to do that on his own nowadays speaks volumes for the desolate mental plains that Chelsea currently occupy. Chelsea’s injury list is substantially smaller than Bolton’s but doubts over the fitness of Terry and Lampard will undoubtedly unease the side, especially as Drogba and Anelka simply aren’t doing the business on a consistent enough basis away from home this season so Chelsea may be a little nervous tonight. Personally, I still think this is Drogba’s last season in the Premier League as I think he’ll move elsewhere but we’ll see. Nonetheless, Bolton’s defence isn’t the strongest against good sides and Chelsea managed to penetrate it a few weeks ago when playing Bolton at home without playing particularly well so I have to consider the possibility that they’ll score against Bolton tonight too.

All in all, I expect this to be a rather interesting encounter. Quality-wise, Chelsea should win this every day of the week but that’s simply not happened for them so far this season and clubs recognise it and also obtain confidence from it. Bolton will smell blood here and I’ll be surprised if they don’t go for the jugular here; I don’t think Owen Coyle has another style of management, to be honest! Both sides have a few important players out injured and a few important players as doubts so we should see a fairly open game here, particularly as Bolton love to force the issue at home and Chelsea don’t look good enough to repel that tactic currently so my tip for this game is for both sides to score, which is decently priced at 5/6.

Now for the scary news, however – Bolton haven’t scored at home against Chelsea since 2002! Chelsea have had a lot of good results here and they may draw confidence from that tonight. However, I would add that none of those home games were marshalled by Owen Coyle prowling the touchline and he’s really changed the way Bolton play so I wouldn’t read much into the head-to-head record here. I think Chelsea are in a bit of a decline still and we may see traces of that tonight and thus my call remains for both sides to score at 5/6.

Team news – Bolton miss Chung-Yong Lee, Joey O’Brien, Gardner, Samuel, and Davis whilst having doubts over Holden, Klasnic, and Steinsson whereas Chelsea miss Alex, Benayoun, Borini, Zhirkov, and have doubts over Lampard and Terry.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.

Monday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

No other singles appeal to me today, guys – sorry!

Accumulator fodder:

Athletic Club de Bilbao

Recommended bets:

No multiples appeal to me today – sorry guys!

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Copa Sudamericano U20:

Chile vs Argentina (6) 1-2
Peru vs Venezuela (5) 1-0

English Premier League:

Bolton Wanderers vs Chelsea (5) both sides to score

German Bundesliga 2:

VfL Bochum vs Erzebirge Aue (6)

Italian Serie B:

Triestina vs Novara (6)

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Fortuna Sittard vs Almere City (6)
Sparta Rotterdam vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (5) over 2.5 goals
Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar (6)
Veendam vs Volendam (5) both sides to score
Eindhoven vs RBC Roosendaal (4)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Helmond Sport (6)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Maritimo Funchal vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (5) over 2.5 goals

Turkish Super Lig:

Kayserispor vs Istanbul BB (6) 2-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Hercules Alicante (8) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!