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Warning – today looks dubious for hefty stakes on value games so approach with caution. It looks a good day for accumulators but not for singles.
Today’s secondary featured game is the Ligue 1 game between Lorient and Girondins de Bordeaux. Both sides are fairly well-matched on paper so we should see an interesting game here although recent history suggests that Bordeaux should be comfortable winners here.
I’m going to disagree with that idea today, however. Lorient and their artificial pitch have convinced me that they’re worth backing against most Ligue 1 sides at home this season and this one is no exception. They’ve won seven out of eleven home games in Ligue 1 with only third-placed Stade Rennais and league leaders LOSC Lille having won more home games than they have. Lorient don’t average scoring more than 1.5 goals per home game but their strength is in defence, which is all too clear to see with an average of conceding just over a goal per every two home games. Regrettably, Lorient do miss important defenders Morel and Ecuele Manga today, which are blows, but against an impotent Bordeaux attack, I’m not too concerned. Lorient’s 3-1 defeat at AS Monaco last match was uncharacteristic but not unrealistic considering the difficulty of switching between an artificial pitch and an ordinary grass pitch so the result was not impossible. I think we’ll see Lorient get back to normal today though!
Bordeaux are consistently over-priced nowadays because of the excellent work that Laurent Blanc did with them. However, he’s not there anymore and they’re not the same side, which is something that people tend to overlook, bizarrely. They’re still strong defensively but they’ve suffered a lot in attack with the departures of target men Cavenaghi and Chamakh. They brought in Niger striker Maazou on loan from CSKA Moscow but he failed to fill the void and subsequently returned to Russia in January. Bordeaux then loaned Brazilian prospect Andre from Dynamo Kiev, which could be a good move for them, but he’s not the type of player that they’re seeking at the moment so I’m not convinced. They miss important attacker Gouffran and quintessential defender Tremoulinas today so I think we’ll see a Bordeaux side more vulnerable than normal; a Bordeaux side that still hasn’t got over the loss of playmaker Gourcuff to Olympique Lyonnais. Bordeaux lost their last match at home to Stade Malherbe de Caen because Caen worked harder and possessed more goal threat than Bordeaux. Most sides in Ligue 1 actually possess more goal threat than Bordeaux, in my view, so I find it very hard to take them seriously at the laughable odds given to them by the bookies nowadays.
I would approach this one with some caution as both sides have important absences. However, Bordeaux aren’t great travellers and I struggle to see where their goals are coming from in this game, despite Lorient evidently missing two defenders. Lorient have the age-old advantage of the artificial pitch though, and that makes a difference here. Lorient have star striker Gameiro available and given that Lorient are a very hard side to break down, I think that the odds on a Lorient win are quite generous here as I think they’ve got a good chance of scoring the first goal and if they do then that should be the winner.
Team news – Lorient miss Morel, Kone, Jouffre, Ecuele-Manga, Buron, Coquelin, and Monterrubio whereas Girondins de Bordeaux miss Tremoulinas, Henrique, and Gouffran.
Verdict: Lorient to win at 13/10.
Follow the latest betting odds comparison on this event with OddsPortal.com!
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
AS Eupen vs Cercle Brugge – away win draw no bet at 5/6.
This tip is largely based on quality as Eupen struggle for it but Cercle Brugge have more of it than they’re given credit for. Outside of the heavyweights of the Eerste Klasse, only Lokeren have scored more goals than Cercle Brugge this season and this is largely due to their loan signings from Sporting Clube de Lisboa that allows them to play attractive, attacking football on a regular basis.
Eupen have scored four goals in their last seven Eerste Klasse games, which speaks for itself, really. They work hard but generally have little to show for it, ultimately. A side like Eupen must play to their maximum potential in every game to have a chance of avoiding relegation from a division like this and I just don’t see them doing that, especially today with so many important absences i.e. Werner, Alex, Panizzolo etc. Eupen have lost four consecutive home games in the Eerste Klasse, taking their tally to an unimpressive nine defeats in thirteen Eerste Klasse home games – relegation form, if you ask me. They average conceding nearly two goals per home game and are also in possession of the worst record of goals conceded at home in the division so you can see why I don’t rate their chances highly here, especially after a poor run of form.
Visitors Cercle Brugge are in a good position to take three points here, in my view. Their away form isn’t flattering but they were quite good against Anderlecht lately in their unfortunate 1-0 defeat at the Vanden Stock and generally attack well enough to score goals, not that their dismal record lately backs that up whatsoever. Generally, Cercle Brugge are good away from home, scoring in five out of their last seven Eerste Klasse away games with their only failings to score coming against Racing Genk and Anderlecht respectively, which is no embarassing statistic!
Therefore, I’ll give Cercle Brugge a chance here, a chance that they deserve, in my view. They miss the experienced Sebrennikov in midfield and the experienced Viane in defence but I’m not expecting a shrewd enough tactical game for it to matter. I’m expecting an open game that should suit Cercle Brugge as they have better attacking players and with the above in mind, I don’t see them losing this game so the away win with draw no bet as cover at 5/6 looks appealing.
Team news – Eupen miss Alex, Werner, Panizzolo, Obradovic, Mombongo-Dues, and Diakhate whereas Cercle Brugge miss Sebrennikov and Viane whilst having doubts over Owusu.
Verdict: Cercle Brugge to win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Millonarios Bogota vs Once Caldas Manizales – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This game just screams “goals” to me. Millonarios have flashed their financial clout pre-season by signing a lot of players and look set to cause the Primera A division a few surprises this season. However, they’ve started quite randomly as their players get used to each other and I expect more of the same tonight i.e. defensive mistakes but goalscoring too. Once Caldas are one of the sides that Millonarios look to emulate and they’ve picked a good side to play them too, as Once Caldas lost 0-3 mid-week in embarassing fashion against Peru’s Universidad San Martin in the Copa Libertadores so not only are tonight’s visitors demoralised but also tired. Unfortunately, the visitors in this game know only how to attack; defending is not their strongpoint whatsoever. Therefore, with the above in mind, over 2.5 goals at 4/5 appeals to me here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
AEK Larnaca vs AEL Limassol – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
AEK Larnaca have played rather randomly since their return from the mid-season break, occasionally showing the brilliance that has made them a hard side to face since promotion and occasionally showing why they’re nowhere near the level of the Nicosia clubs yet. Three out of AEK’s last five games have gone over 2.5 goals as they throw caution to the wind by attacking more and defending stupidly on occasion and I see no reason to expect anything else here today. They enter the game on the back of an epic 2-3 win at battling Olympiakos Nicosia so morale is good and they’ll fancy their chances against an out-of-form AEL Limassol. AEL are more than capable of going toe-to-toe with their hosts today but they’ve looked so disinterested since returning from the mid-season break that I don’t know if they’ll bother. The only game they’ve looked interested in was the derby with Apollon last match, which they lost 2-3 at home, much to the dismay of their fans. It gets worse for AEL too – they’re missing star midfielder and leading goalscorer Ze Vitor for this game, not to mention Polish target man Rasiak, and experienced striker Freddy, so they should struggle here. However, Argentinian attacker Gonzalez is available and should be partnered by new signing Henrique, who was signed from Doxa in Janaury and has performed well this season so I wouldn’t be too quick to write AEL off here, as bleak as it looks. I expect AEL to build on their hard-working display last match to give AEK a good game here but with the random displays of both sides lately, I think we’ll see over 2.5 goals here so that’s my call, especially as neither side seems able to keep a clean sheet anymore.
Team news – AEK Larnaca miss Pintado whereas AEL Limassol miss Freddy, Ze Vitoria, Rasiak, and Lima.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Hannover 96 vs Kaiserslautern – home win at evens.
Although I’d leave it if the odds drop below evens, I’m keen to take a chance on Hannover 96 whilst they’re at evens or above here.
Hannover have demonstrated incredible maturity and tactical precision this season, not to mention a lethal counter-attacking style that has most Bundesliga defences trembling, especially with star Ivorian Ya Konan in great form. They’ve already won seven out of eleven home games this season and they’ve looked good lately too, beating VfL Wolfsburg in their last home game and drawing 1-1 at sleeping giants Werder Bremen last match. Hannover have rapidly become a very hard side to face and a defensively-inept Kaiserslautern side could and should be very afraid of them here. Kaiserslautern have lost three consecutive away games in all competitions due to excessive conceding and have now lost eight out of eleven on the road in the Bundesliga this season – it’s just too many games, to be blunt. They’re a good attacking unit and their never-say-die atttiude earned them a surprising point at home to BV09 Borussia Dortmund last match. However, they’re going to need more than goals to defeat Hannover 96 here as Hannover’s defence is strong so they’ll need to be clever too, which is where I envision them struggling. Scoring here isn’t beyond them but holding a lead should be beyond them against such a good Hannover 96 side.
For me, there’s value in the home win here at evens so that’s my call.
Team news – Hannover 96 miss Miller, Avevor, Burmeister, Hofmann, Andreasen, Ernst, Evseev, Rama, and Schmiedebach whereas Kaiserslautern miss Knaller, Correia, Damjanovic, Lucas, Simunek, Dzaka, Fuchs, Kirch, B. Schulz, Stulin, Micanski, and Zellner.
Verdict: Hannover 96 to win at evens.
SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg – home win at 11/8.
This should be an interesting game as Freiburg, where everything is right, hosting Wolfsburg, where everything is wrong!
Freiburg have done really well this season at home thanks to the emergence of striker Cisse, who has bagged fifteen goals in twenty games. Freiburg have stuttered a little lately, however, which is perhaps due to other sides starting to “figure them out”, so to speak. Freiburg aren’t a massively potent side and thus a goal scored against them is usually enough to prevent them from winning. However, scoring against Freiburg, particularly at Freiburg, has been very difficult this season and I expect the same problem for visitors Wolfsburg today, who still have a team full of players who barely know each other and a new manager to boot. Wolfsburg haven’t scored for three consecutive games now and it’s no surprise that they’ve lost all three of those games either, given their demoralised players and growing injury list. In my view, Wolfsburg’s team and manager are going to use the remainder of the current campaign to “get to know each other” rather than try and achieve something because it beggars belief to think that they could hope to achieve something this season with so many new faces. I think a disorientated and unorganised Wolfsburg have a good chance of succumbing to defeat against a strong Freiburg side today, given the sharp contrast in the preparation of both sides and the tactical prowess of the hosts, and thus my call is the generously priced home win here.
Team news – SC Freiburg miss Pouplin, Krmas, Hofler, Jager, Olle Olle, Schuster, Williams, and Bechmann whereas VfL Wolfsburg miss Lenz, Karimow, Kjaer, Kiamt, Madlung, Cigerci, Kahlenberg, Kreuels, Schinzielorz, Wolze, Grafite, Klos, Mandzukic, and Polter.
Follow the latest betting odds comparison on this event with OddsPortal.com!
Verdict: SC Freiburg to win at 11/8.
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock – both sides to score at 4/5.
Kilmarnock welcome back Eremenko for their tough trip to Pittodrie, which should give them additional creativity as the Finnish midfielder is frankly too good for this division, in my humble opinion. Kilmarnock have looked surprisingly good away from home lately, losing just once in three consecutive away games, scoring in all three. Indeed, the only time they slipped up was at Hibernian last match, which was coincidentally when Eremenko was absent, would you believe! I don’t really believe Kilmarnock are good enough to win this game but they’ve got the momentum and creativity to maintain their good goalscoring run so I think they’ll score here, especially with Aberdeen still devoid of Considine at the back and now captain Paul Hartley, who is suspended. Those are two hefty losses for Aberdeen and I’m not happy backing the hosts without them when it comes to winning games. However, Craig Brown will set his side up with their usual brittle belief in their ability to score goals and win games and to be fair, they’ve scored in every home game this year barring their 0-3 defeat against Celtic so I don’t think it’s beyond the hosts to score either. The table is a bit misleading regarding both of these sides at the moment but I’d avoid the 1×2 market either way as there’s too many “ifs” and “buts”. However, backing both sides to score at 4/5 really appeals to me here, especially if both sides perform as they have done of late.
Team news – Aberdeen miss Hartley and Considine.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Al Sadd, Velez Sarsfield, SV Ried, Austria Vienna, Universidad Catolica, Anorthosis Famagusta, Deportivo Quito, Manchester United, Peterborough United, BV09 Borussia Dortmund, MSV Duisburg, Siena, Santos Laguna, Nacional Asuncion, Sport Huancayo, Real Madrid, FC Zurich, and The New Saints.
Recommended bets:
Real Madrid and Anorthosis Famagusta at evens.
BV09 Borussia Dortmund and Lorient at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Champions League:
Sriwijaya vs Al Ain (6) over 2.5 goals
Al Sadd vs Dempo (9) -1.5 handicap
Argentinian Primera Division:
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente (5) both sides to score
Newells Old Boys vs Atletico Lanus (5) under 2.5 goals
Velez Sarsfield vs All Boys (8) 2-0
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Boca Juniors (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Marniers vs Brisbane Roar (6) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs LASK Linz (8) under 2.5 goals
SV Kapfenberg vs Wacker Innsbruck (5) 1-1
SV Mattersburg vs Sturm Graz (6) 1-2
Austria Vienna vs Wiener Neustadt (8) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Lokeren (5) both sides to score
Racing Genk vs Mechelen (7) 1-0
Germinal Beerschot vs Kortrijk (6) 0-0
Zulte-Waregem vs Lierse SK (6) 1-0
Charleroi vs Sint-Truiden (5) 1-1
AS Eupen vs Cercle Brugge (6) 1-2, draw no bet
Chilean Primera Division:
Cobresal vs Union La Calera (5) 1-0
Santiago Morning vs Deportes Iquique (6) 1-1
Universidad de Concepcion vs Cobreloa (6) 2-1
Universidad Catolica vs Huachipato (8) 2-0
Colombian Primera A:
Millonarios Bogota vs Once Caldas Manizales (5) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs America de Cali (7) 1-0
Cypriot Division 1:
A.E.Paphos vs Anorthosis Famagusta (8) over 2.5 goals
Ethnikos Achnas vs Olympiakos Nicosia (5) 1-1
AEK Larnaca vs AEL Limassol (6) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Espoli Cayambe (8) 2-0
Independiente vs LDU Loja (4) 1-1
English FA Cup:
Chelsea vs Everton (6) 2-1
Stoke City vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6) 1-0
Birmingham City vs Sheffield Wednesday (7) 2-1
Manchester United vs Crawley Town (9) -1.5 handicap
English Championship:
Scunthorpe United vs Derby County (5) both sides to score
Millwall vs Middlesbrough (5) under 2.5 goals
Portsmouth vs Barnsley (5)
Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff City (6)
Swansea City vs Derby County (7)
Ipswich Town vs Hull City (6) over 2.5 goals
Leeds United vs Norwich City (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Preston North End vs Queens Park Rangers (4)
Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United (5)
Reading vs Watford (7)
English League One:
Peterborough United vs Tranmere Rovers (8) over 2.5 goals
Hartlepool United vs Milton Keynes Dons (4)
Rochdale vs Southampton (6)
Charlton Athletic vs Exeter City (6) over 2.5 goals
Swindon Town vs Carlisle United (4)
Bournemouth vs Huddersfield Town (5) both sides to score
Colchester United vs Walsall (5) both sides to score
Bristol Rovers vs Oldham Athletic (4) both sides to score
English League Two:
Crewe Alexandra vs Stevenage (6)
Torquay United vs Southend United (4)
Rotherham United vs Shrewsbury Town (6)
Hereford United vs Burton Albion (4)
Stockport County vs Macclesfield Town (5)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Accrington Stanley (7)
Northampton Town vs Aldershot Town (4) both sides to score
Morecambe vs Oxford United (6)
Gillingham vs Bury (6)
Lincoln City vs Chesterfield (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Cheltenham Town vs Barnet (6)
French Ligue 1:
Auxerre vs Arles (6) under 2.5 goals
Stade Brestois vs AS Monaco (6) 0-0
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Valenciennes (3) 1-2
Racing Club Lens vs Sochaux (6) 2-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Saint-Etienne (7) 1-0
Lorient vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 1-0
German Bundesliga:
Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg (6) 2-1
Hoffenheim vs Koln (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Hannover 96 vs Kaiserslautern (6) 2-1
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs St.Pauli (8) over 2.5 goals
Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich (4) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
MSV Duisburg vs Union Berlin (8)
Paderborn vs Alemannia Aachen (4) draw no bet
Greek Super League:
Asteras Tripolis vs Kerkyra (5) 2-1
Kavala vs Panserraikos (7) 2-0
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Italian Serie A:
Bologna vs Palermo (5) both sides to score
Internazionale vs Cagliari (7) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Reggina vs Atalanta Bergamo (4) both sides to score
Sassuolo vs Crotone (7)
Triestina vs Modena (5) under 2.5 goals
Livorno vs Novara (6)
Albinoleffe vs Padova (5)
Torino vs Pescara (4) both sides to score
Siena vs Piacenza (8)
Ascoli vs Portosummaga (4)
Cittadella vs Vicenza (4)
Mexican Primera Division:
Cruz Azul vs Atlas (7) 2-1
Monterrey vs Tigres UANL (6) over 2.5 goals
Santos Laguna vs Queretaro (8) under 2.5 goals
Guadalajara vs Pachuca (5) both sides to score
Dutch Eredivisie:
Excelsior Rotterdam vs Willem II (5) 2-2
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar (6) 2-1
Groningen vs Roda JC Kerkrade (7) 1-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Nacional Asuncion vs General Caballero (8) -1.5 handicap
Peruvian Primera Division:
Sport Huancayo vs Inti Gas (8) 2-1
CNI vs Universitario Lima (5) 0-0
Universidad San Martin vs Universidad Cesar Vallejo (6) 2-1
Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico (6) 1-0
Sport Boys vs Sporting Cristal (3) 1-0, draw no bet
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Portimonense vs Olhanense (6) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock (5) both sides to score
Hearts vs Dundee United (7) 2-1
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs St.Johnstone (5) 1-1
Motherwell vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 1-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Valencia CF vs Sporting Gijon (6) 2-1
Real Madrid vs Levante (9) -1.5 handicap
Real Zaragoza vs Atletico Madrid (5) both sides to score
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (6)
Elche vs Barcelona II (5)
Cartagena vs Numancia (6)
Deportivo Xerez vs Cordoba (5)
Celta de Vigo vs Tenerife (6)
Salamanca vs Huesca (4)
Las Palmas vs Villarreal II (5)
Albacete vs Recreativo de Huelva (6) under 2.5 goals
Swiss Super League:
Neuchatel Xamax vs Grasshopper Zurich (5) 1-2
FC Zurich vs St.Gallen (8) 2-0
Turkish Super Lig:
Kasimpasa vs Ankaragucu (4) 1-1
Bursaspor vs Gaziantepspor (7) 1-0
Genclerbirligi vs Karabukspor (5) 2-1
Galatasaray vs Bucaspor (6) 1-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Central Espanol vs River Plate Montevideo (6) 1-1
Penarol vs Fenix (6) 2-1
Tacuarembo vs Montevideo Wanderers (5) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Carmarthen Town vs Airbus UK (5) 1-0
Newtown vs Haverfordwest County (4) 1-1
The New Saints vs Port Talbot Town (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!