Tag Archives: Botafogo

Botafogo vs Gremio

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Ok guys, thanks very much for the support with the Bet365 link and banner clicking – it’s really good of you all! If you could please continue to do this whenever you remember then it’d be greatly appreciated, especially if placing bets at that time. Thank you!

First of all – that’s right, there’s no comments today. I’m sick and tired of deleting unnecessary bullshit from varying people. I will probably reinstate comment-posting at somepoint as a brief trial to see if you’ve heeded the below but for the present time, you’re going to be without it.

Guidelines for posting:

Avoid posting unnecessary comments e.g. “OMFG TEAM “X” LOST!”

Keep in-play chat on the forum e.g. comments such as ”omg can’t believe they’ve scored!” and “that was never onside” will be deleted. Arguments such as “nobody uses the forum” are utterly irrelevant; if you can be arsed posting it on the comments section then you can be arsed posting it on the forum. If you can’t be arsed posting it on the forum then it’s not important enough to bother with, is it?

Make sure you posts have a purpose or they’ll be deleted e.g. “wtf?” will be deleted.

Not adhering to the above is clogging up the comments page and I have far too much to do to be able to consistently delete the shit to allow people to view the actually useful comments e.g. “my bet today is… because” or “their striker is out – I wouldn’t back them today” – something in that vein.

Anyway, today’s secondary featured game is the Brazilian Serie A game between Botafogo and Gremio. Hosts Botafogo are always strong at home and Gremio are always weak away, which is a very useful foundation for this bet!

Like most Brazilian clubs, Botafogo have undergone some hefty changes pre-season due to good players being snapped up. However, they’ve still entered this season as the same potent team and have already won two out of two on their own turf in Serie A, even beating giants Santos back in May. Botafogo’s success comes from their midfield with the likes of Maicousel, Mattos, Everton, Lucas Zen, and new starlet Elkeson dominating proceedings. It’s quite fortuitous that they have such a good midfield, really, as strikers Caio, Alex, and Herrera are generally a bit lost without big Abreu, who is yet to feature for Botafogo this season. Nonetheless, their strong midfield and desire to attack generally leads Botafogo to victory and I usually fancy them at home against most sides.

Visitors Gremio are no exception to that list, either. I don’t think I’ve ever encountered a side that is considered to be a heavyweight of a country that so consistently fails to deliver away from home for no real reason than Gremio. Every single year, Gremio are crap away from home, losing copious amounts of games and playing badly to boot. They’ve been quite poor overall so far this season, irrespective of their scorelines, so I don’t expect much from them today. This campaign was always going to be a hard one following the departure of star striker Jonas to Valencia CF but it’s been made harder for tonight’s game with midfield general and set piece specialist Rochemback being suspended. Additionally, number one goalkeeper Victor is absent, as is long-term absentee Rodolfo, so Gremio are far from at full-strength here. Looking at their team, I don’t see where their leadership will come from in midfield and that leadership is required too – they look really lightweight in there. They’ve got some semi-decent players up front but nothing like what they used to have a few years ago. So yeah – I don’t fancy Gremio at all here.

Gremio haven’t won at Botafogo since 2001 and I don’t think that’ll change tonight. The last two head-to-heads played in Rio de Janeiro have ended in high-scoring draws but given the lack of firepower in Gremio’s ranks, I don’t think we’ll see the same outcome tonight. Nonetheless, I won’t rule out the possibility of goals being scored here – I just think that they’ll be largely on the side of the hosts. For me, the home win at evens or longer is more than acceptable so 11/10 on Botafogo winning this game suits me just fine.

Team news – Gremio miss Rodolfo, Rochemback, and Victor.

Verdict: Botafogo to win at 11/10.

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Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Ceara vs Palmeiras – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

In my view, Ceara really should have been relegated last season but it proved not to be. However, they really should be back in Serie B by the start of the next season as this side is woefully short of talent. That said, I won’t readily back against them at home because they have a very unique advantage in that they play in Fortaleza. Fortaleza is a small town in northern Brazil and is generally a very intimidating place to play football. Last season was a good example of that with Ceara losing just once in nineteen home games, which was unsurprisingly against Vasco da Gama, who had appointed their boss Gusmao as their manager at that time and considering that Gusmao effectively built that Ceara team, it’s fair to have expected the away win! Clubs will approach away games with Ceara with more caution this season, such is “second season syndrome”, but it’s still not easy to play here. The pitch is compact and Ceara are real battlers, which is handy because they’re utterly useless when it comes to quality. Ceara have already lost twice in three home games this season, which has to be concerning for them as without their home advantage, they are quite simply sitting ducks. They’ve been done over by Vasco da Gama 1-3 (again – although without Gusmao this time) and league leaders Sao Paulo 0-2. Ceara’s form looks a lot more overish than it actually is, however, with the sides that they’ve gone over against being sides that attack freely without much care for defending e.g. Botafogo. The Ceara I prefer to pay much more attention to is the Ceara side that lost 0-2 against Sao Paulo; they worked hard, the scoreline flattered the visitors, but better sides can defend against them quite easily and if they take their chances then they’ll beat Ceara. You need a good tactical side to deploy that approach and there aren’t many in Brazil who can do that.

However, enter Palmeiras, who absolutely can do that! Under Scolari, Palmeiras have suddenly gone “Hey, we’re actually a lot better than we’ve been thinking that we are!” and subsequently, they’re unbeaten in five games this season, winning three times along the way. They enter this match on the back of a 5-0 drubbing of Avai, which was quite unusual as Palmeiras generally don’t play to score a lot of goals due to their absence of flair players. They certainly won’t attempt it without Valdivia, anyway! Palmeiras have a good attack though, it has to be said – Kleber and Luan have linked up well and Palmeiras look better for it. They defend well and like to counter-attack efficiently and that tactic has served Sao Paulo well for years so why not Palmeiras too? They’ve got good experience in the middle of the park with Marcos Assuncao dictating the play and Palmeiras have good options when they get the ball wide too, not least with “right-back” Cicinho tearing forward. Palmeiras don’t tend to play as well away from home as at home though, which is what has dissuaded me from the away win here, especially as it’s in Fortaleza. Additionally, striker Luan is absent and new signing Maikon Leite has not been cleared for this game so Palmeiras aren’t full of options in attack.

Therefore, the away win looks correctly priced and I have no interest in it. However, I have an awful lot of interest in under 2.5 goals as Palmeiras like to keep the ball and win efficiently rather than flambuoyantly, which was possibly something that Scolari picked up during his short tenure at Chelsea! Either way, Palmeiras are playing confidently enough to dominate this game and they’ve got the midfield to frustrate their tenacious hosts so I think we’ll see a real battle here but with a narrow scoreline as I don’t see Avai scoring and I don’t see Palmeiras scoring many, hence under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Team news – Ceara miss Carenca whereas Palmeiras miss Maikon Leite and Luan whilst having doubts over Tinga and Gabriel Silva.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

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Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima – home win at 9/10.

Gamba Osaka may not be quite at their peak yet but four wins from five home games in the J-League says that they know how to win their home games. They’re still conceding more than I’d like them to although there’s a possibility that that’s more evident as Gamba Osaka aren’t scoring as many as I’d expect them to, which is probably related to the continued absence of Hashimoto. Nonetheless, the acquisition of Brazilian striker Adriano from Cerezo Osaka has proven to be a good move with him bagging nine goals in eight appearances this season. Couple that with the dominance of Endo in the middle of the park and the emergance of Usarmi and Gamba Osaka have a foundation that they can build on, although there is still work to do.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have struggled a lot away from home this season. They’ve bagged just three goals in five away games and have understandably only won two of their games with that approach. Nonetheless, they’re defending well and that has caused some clubs problems, namely Shimizu S-Pulse and Albirex Niigata. However, when encountering a good attacking side like Kawasaki Frontale, they were eventually penetrated and duly lost the match as they lack the firepower to get back into games that they fall behind in, generally speaking, and that’s the same type of game I expect from them today. They may improve defensively when Mizumoto returns from his lengthy absence but at the moment, they can be broken through by a good attacking side and if nothing else, Gamba Osaka are very good at attacking.

The only side to avoid defeat in Osaka when facing Gamba in the J-League this season had to score two goals. I don’t see how Sanfrecce Hiroshima will score two goals here, to be blunt. They’ve got a couple of fairly average strikers in Sato and Lee and a couple of experienced attacking midfielders in ex-Lokomotiv Moscow player Mujiri and ex-Dinamo Zagreb player Mikic. They’ve got enough quality to function as a unit but as goalscorers? I don’t think so. They lost here last season and at 9/10, I’m happy to back Gamba Osaka to beat them again.

Team news – Gamba Osaka miss Hashimoto whereas Sanfrecce Hiroshima miss Takayanagi and Mizumoto.

Verdict: Gamba Osaka to win at 9/10.

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Odd Grenland Skien vs Molde FK - away win with draw no bet at evens.

I can’t say I understand the odds on this game but I’m happy to go along with it. I appreciate that Odd Grenland are not a side to write off at home as they do make their artificial turf count but they’re quite the average side nowadays – they don’t have the same “shock” factor as they did when they were promoted a few years ago. They do have a good attack with pacey Magnus Myklebust being the legs that old Frode Johnsen no longer has and the two link up well, especially with pacey Midtgarden on the flank. Their midfield is somewhat stagnant but experienced and they enjoy frustrating opponents with it. However, when it comes to winning games, Odd Grenland are struggling this season with only newly-promoted Sarpsborg 08 having lost here. It’s all well and good to score three goals at home against Rosenborg BK and two goals against Stabaek but what have they taken from those games – one point?! They need to sort things out at the back but either way, this side doesn’t have enough balance to win a game like this, in my view.

Molde are red-hot at the moment and they also have a good amount of luck which tells me to take them here. To win in Drammen against Stromsgodset is a bloody hard thing to do and ‘godset really made them work for it too, arguably deserving at least a draw from the game. However, Molde held on and won the game and have now lost just twice in their last eleven Eliteserien games, one of which was against reigning champions Rosenborg BK (which is fair enough) and the other was the strangest 5-0 defeat I’ve ever seen with Molde more than matching Haugesund but the hosts taking their chances in a far more clinical fashion. Nonetheless, Solskjaer’s boys have bounced back and just keep winning by scoring a lot of goals. Their African attackers are causing nightmares to Eliteserien defences everywhere with Diouf, Angan, and Chima all being very hard to handle. I’ve said before that they’ve got arguably the best midfield in Norway in Hoseth, Eikrem, Thioune, and Berg Hestad, and I stand by that statement – there’s plenty of everything required in there. Molde’s defence is a concern but they score more than enough goals for that to not concern me here.

This is not a “dead cert” of course, but I’d be astounded if Molde lost this game. They’ve not won at Odd Grenland since Odd Grenland were last promoted but claimed a 1-1 draw here last season. Molde have a much better manager this year and are a lot more confident because of it. I think we’ll see quite the goal-filled game here but for me, only in-form Molde can take three points here, if indeed either of them do. Therefore, the away win with draw no bet cover appeals to me at evens, especially with Odd Grenland having played three games in seven days, the latest one of which was played over 120 minutes.

Verdict: Molde FK to win with draw no bet at evens.

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FK Krasnodar vs Anzhi Makhachkala - away win with draw no bet at 4/5.

FK Krasnodar have done surprisingly well at home this season and I’m still not entirely sure how. They bought their way into this division, which is ironic as the side they’re facing today is trying to buy the division! Krasnodar generally lack talent but make up for it with a strong work ethic. Movsisyan is a good striker whom I like quite a lot, to be fair to Krasnodar. Additionally, ex-Levski Sofia attacker Joaozinho is a good player too. Aside from that – they have a lot of battlers and won’t give in to anyone but I just don’t rate their ability in front of goal, contrary to their surprisingly good record of goalscoring, especially at home. I attribute their strong goalscoring record at home to scoring against crap sides. For example, they’ve bagged eleven goals at home this season and nine of them have been against sides that will either be relegated or just avoid the drop. They even failed to score at home against Terek Grozny in their last match, losing 0-2! This side is over-achieving in the sense that they’re not really good enough to be in the division so I’m pretty happy to oppose them today.

Visitors Anzhi are a funny side; when I back them, they draw or lose. When I bet against them, they win. However, I don’t tend to let superstition get in my way so I’m taking them with draw no bet here. They miss striker Tardelli, who hasn’t really impressed yet anyway, and fellow compatriot Jucilei in midfield. However, given that both were absent during Anzhi’s 0-3 win at Krylya Sovetov Samara last match, I’m not too concerned there. Anzhi’s ability to keep other sides out means that Krasnodar will do well to even score here, in my view. It depends which Anzhi shows up as to whether they win or not, however. In Bousouffa, Anzhi have a good enough playmaker to win them the game. Holenda is a decent enough target man to be on the field of play and old Roberto Carlos does his faire share from a creative aspect, too. Anzhi should have enough to nick a goal or two here, especially against a hard-working but fairly ineffectual Krasnodar team.

For me, the away win with draw no bet cover is pretty generously priced at 4/5 and thus it’s my call here.

Team news – Anzhi Makhachkala miss Jucilei and Diego Tardelli.

Verdict: Anzhi Makhachkala to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

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Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow – home win at 11/10.

I’m not sure when I’m going to stop betting against Lokomotiv Moscow; perhaps when they actually appoint a new manager instead of caretaker boss Maminov?

Either way, I’m on Dinamo Moscow here. I’m not a big fan of the hosts, to be honest. For a side with such financial clout, Dinamo Moscow have done next to nothing for years now due to persistent changes and inconsistent displays. However, if they can’t win this derby then they’re absolute idiots. They do have firepower in Kuranyi up front. They’ve got good playmaker in Misimovic, a good winger in Samedov, and a good leader at the back in Fernandez. The changes that need to be made to this team are minimal and yet they still continue to frustrate – odd, isn’t it? However, they’ve won back-to-back games ahead of this one, the most recent of which was a 0-2 derby win at Spartak Moscow so confidence is high and they should have enough momentum to do the job today.

Lokomotiv Moscow have fallen apart since the scandal regarding the Anzhi Makhachkala game and is it any wonder? This side is consistently built around their manager; if they have a good manager, they do well. If they chop and change managers, they struggle. Promising manager Krasnozhan was brought in to replace Semin at the start of the season and he got Lokomotiv playing really well. However, they sacked Krasnozhan as Lokomotiv’s chairman decided he took a bribe for their loss against Anzhi and now they simply have caretaker boss Maminov in charge. Since then, all of Lokomotiv’s displays have been crap, relying heavily on Spartak Nal’chik being abysmal to beat them and losing the following two derbies convincingly, 3-1 at CSKA Moscow and 0-2 against Spartak Moscow. Their displays were poor and their defeats were well earned, in my view.

Lokomotiv are short on defenders for this game too, it has to be noted. Burlak is absent and Basa has left to join LOSC Lille in France so they may be more suspect than usual away from home today. Additionally, creative midfielder Torbinskiy misses out too, which piles further woe on this unconvincing Lokomotiv Moscow side. Although I really don’t like backing Dinamo Moscow against anyone, their failure to win this game would be a pretty hefty surprise today.

Team news – Lokomotiv Moscow miss Torbinskiy and Burlak.

Verdict: Dinamo Moscow to win at 11/10.

Why not bet on this game now at one of the best bookmakers around?

Accumulator fodder:

Zenit St.Petersburg, Assyriska Sodertalje.

Recommended bets:

Botafogo, Assyriska Sodertalje, and Zenit St.Petersburg at just below 2/1.

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Brazilian Serie A:

Corinthians vs Sao Paulo (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Botafogo vs Gremio (7) 2-1
Avai vs Fluminense (5) 1-0
Ceara vs Palmeiras (6) 0-1
Internacional vs Figueirense (7) 2-1
Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco da Gama (7) 2-0

Faroese Meistaradeildin:

07 Vestur Sorvagur vs IF Fuglafjordur (6) 2-1
HB Torshavn vs B36 Torshavn (7) 1-2, at least one red card in this game

Icelandic Urvalsdeild:

Fylkir Reykjavik vs Thor Akureyi (7) 1-0
Valur Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik (7) 1-0
UMF Grindavik vs KR Reykjavik (5) 2-1

Japanese J-Leaue:

Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (7) 2-1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Vegalta Sendai (4) 1-1
Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama F.Marinos (5) 0-1
Omiya Ardija vs Vissel Kobe (6) 0-0

Latvian Virsliga:

Skonto Riga vs Daugava Daugavpils (5) 1-1
FK Ventspils vs Liepajas Metalurgs (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Lithuanian A Lyga:

FBK Kaunas vs Atlantas (4) 1-1
Mazeikiai vs Dainava (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Suduva Marijampole (7) 0-2

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Sogndal vs Fredrikstad (5) 1-1
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund (7) 2-0
Tromso vs Stabaek (7) 2-0
Start Kristiansand vs Valerenga Oslo (5) 1-1
Odd Grenland Skien vs Molde FK (6) 1-2
Viking Stavanger vs Rosenborg BK (6) 0-1, at least one red card in this game

Norwegian Divisjon 1:

Ranheim vs Sandefjord (4)
Asker vs Randaberg (7)
Bodo Glimt vs Mjondalen (7)
Bryne vs Kongsvinger (6)
Hamarkameratene vs Hodd (6)
Honefoss vs Alta (7)
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Sandnes Ulf (5)
Strommen vs Nybergsund (6)

Russian Premier League:

Tom’ Tomsk vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (6) 1-1
Amkar Perm’ vs CSKA Moscow (5) 0-0
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Terek Grozny (8) 2-0
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Spartak Nal’chik (7) 0-0
Rubin Kazan’ vs Kuban’ Krasnodar (6) 2-1
Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow (7) 1-0
Spartak Moscow vs Rostov-na-Donu (5) 2-1
FK Krasnodar vs Anzhi Makhachkala (6) 0-1

Swedish Allsvenskan:

GAIS Goteborg vs Malmo FF (6) 1-1
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Orebro (4) 1-0
Gefle vs IFK Goteborg (5) 1-0
Djurgarden vs BK Hacken Goteborg (5) 2-2
Trelleborg vs AIK Solna (6) 1-1

Swedish Superettan:

Assyriska Sodertalje vs Qviding Goteborg (8)

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Botafogo vs Avai

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Today’s card has frankly left me a little cold, to be honest. There’s not much I like at all in the way of singles so I’d advise staying with accumulators rather than singles today.

Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter in Brazil between Botafogo and Avai. Both sides are very similar to each other in the sense that they usually take advantage of their home form but fail to produce on the road so I’m already leaning towards a Botafogo win here.

However, Botafogo have struggled to convert their chances to win at home so far this season with just two wins in seven games. It’s worth pointing out that they’re unbeaten during that run but the fact is that they’ve bizarrely just won two out of their seven home games despite averaging scoring two goals per game. Botafogo always have the capacity to match their opponents at home but rarely seem to take the initiative and win the game i.e. their 1-1 draw with Guarani or with Vasco da Gama earlier this season, games that they could and should have won. Happily, Botafogo appear to have left that mentality behind now as they’ve won three consecutive games, two of which were away from home against a very tough Vitoria side (in Bahia!) and against the almost-Serie-B-bound Atletico Goianiense, which is still impressive as Botafogo don’t travel well. They’ve crushed Atletico Mineiro 3-0 at home during that time too so with eight goals scored and just one conceded in their past three games, Botafogo are very much in-form.

That said, I generally view Avai as being on a par with Botafogo quality-wise. I have a great respect for Avai’s “all or nothing” football which leaves them either winning games spectacularly or being crushed to an overwhelming degree. Avai’s contrasting form tends to depend on whether they’re in their tiny stronghold or travelling to face opponents, as you’d expect. Avai have won just once in six away games, losing three times along the way. They average conceding over two goals per away game and scoring just one per away game so it’s easy to see why they struggle away from home!

I still rate the two sides just about on a par, however, so why the home win call here? Well, the overwhelming factor here has to be fatigue for me. Avai are a tenacious, vibrant, and energetic side that don’t know when they’re beaten, which is very commendable. However, on the downside, it makes them a little susceptible tactically, which is usually why they lose their away games. Avai have been fighting as hard as ever for the past few games but they have a small squad so rotation isn’t really an option for them. Consider that and then consider that this is their fourth game in eight days! They’ve played two enthralling but draining encounters with Santos in the Copa Sudamericana and progressed by winning 3-2 on aggregate. However, to emphasise the vast contrast between their home and away form, consider that they’ve beaten high-flying Corinthians 3-2 at home and yet also lost 4-1 to goal-shy Guarani. You can see why I think Avai are a rather strange side, to be blunt!

The above has got to make Avai tired though. They’re machines on the field but if they’re not tired then they’re just inhuman! Botafogo’s excellent form of late coupled with Avai’s tired side surely has to result in a home win tonight! 3/4 isn’t the greatest set of odds I’ve ever seen but there should still be some value there with the above in mind.

Verdict: Botafogo to win at 3/4.

Saturday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna – lay Austria Vienna at 10/11.

After a predictably poor start to the season from SV Kapfenberg, the hosts have surprisingly got themselves back on track swiftly, winning three consecutive games. Even more impressively, one of those games was away from home, which is like winning the lottery for Kapfenberg! They’ve also crushed Mattersburg 3-1 during that run so momentum favours the hosts here and they’re experienced enough in the Bundesliga to know how to take points at home. Obviously Austria Vienna are the better of these two sides but an unconvincing game in Greece mid-week in the UEFA Europa League eventually yielded in a last-minute defeat for the Austrians, which should demoralise them a little as well as tire them from the journey. Will Austria Vienna field a full-strength side here with the second leg looming large next week? It’s hard to imagine it. Kapfenberg have prevented Austria Vienna from winning here for three out of Austria Vienna’s last four visits here so it wouldn’t be unusual to see Kapfenberg take something here. Again, odds of 10/11 aren’t earth-shatteringly phenomenal but there should be some value here.

Verdict: Lay Austria Vienna at 10/11.

Ceara vs Gremio – lay Ceara at 3/4.

This was a very close contender for game of the day but I slightly favoured the Botafogo win over this one. Nonetheless, I have strong belief in this one and also believe that the bookies have made a virtually cataclysmic error here! I appreciate Gremio are traditionally poor travellers in Serie A but they’ve finally realised that relegation is a very real possibility so they’ve started to put their backs into matches and are actually scoring goals again. Gremio lost their tie against Goias in the Copa Sudamericana although I believe that was deliberate to stave off the threat of relegation because if you check their Serie A form, it’s been fairly strong either side of those games. The only side to beat them in their last five games was a very in-form Fluminense, who are the current league leaders, so I think that’s acceptable for now! They’ve not lost for two consecutive away games now, drawing 2-2 at Cruzeiro and drawing 0-0 with Internacional in the Porto-Alegrense derby so Gremio’s momentum is slowly building up here and they shouldn’t be underestimated for their league placing.

You also have to feel that these odds have been heavily influenced by Ceara’s impressive home record this season, although a great portion of that record is owed to former manager Gusmao, who now manages Vasco da Gama. You can see how good a job he did by the fact that Ceara now have their second manager since his departure just a couple of months ago. Ceara have scored just three goals in their past seven Serie A games because their defence was always their strength but they’ve also looked like sitting ducks during that time because this is Brazil – there’s always goals somewhere! Ceara haven’t scored for three consecutive home games now, drawing each game 0-0, so why not again tonight? They’ve faced two good sides along the way and one poor side but if you don’t score goals then you don’t win games and Ceara certainly aren’t better than Gremio so why are they such favourites here?

The odds don’t make sense to me. Laying an impotent and inferior side against a good side that don’t concede many at 3/4 is far too generous in my eyes so I really fancy Gremio to not lose this one today, perhaps to even sneak a first away win of the season if they manage to score.

Verdict: Lay Ceara at 3/4.

Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.

I was sorely tempted to take a Deportivo Cali win here at generous odds because although their title-winning days are behind them, they’re still a horrible side to play in Cali, rarely losing to anyone. Deportivo’s problem was never defending; it’s always been scoring enough goals to win games. They’ve played three home games in the Primera A this season and have won once and drawn twice so you can see why I backed away from the home win here. However, they’re hosting a superior Atletico Junior Barranquilla side so there realistically should be goals here. Atletico have just beaten Deportivo Cali 1-0 at home in the Copa Colombia and now face the first of two away trips against them in quick succession, albeit this one is a league encounter. When these two sides meet in Cali, however, there are always goals. There has been over 2.5 goals for the last five games in Cali between these two sides and over 2.5 goals in general for six out of their last seven games between the two sides at either ground so we should expect goals here. I don’t know why Deportivo transform into a potent or suicidal side against Atletico unless it’s bitterness at the limelight that Atletico tends to claim nowadays whereas Deportivo Cali tend to linger in the shadows nowadays. Either way, this game traditionally goes over 2.5 goals so 6/5 on over 2.5 goals looks a good bet tonight.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Sparta Prague vs Viktoria Plzen - lay Sparta Prague at 10/11.

Sparta Prague were on the receiving end of a 2-0 defeat at home to MSK Zilina mid-week in the UEFA Champions League, which is a massive blow to them. They prioritise the Champions League above all competitions for obvious reasons but their loss to their rivals leaves their chances of progressing to the next round in real jeopardy. The return leg is next week in Slovakia and I cannot imagine for one second that Chovanec will field his first-team at home against potential title contenders Viktoria Plzen today. Chovanec himself has already said that he expects a derby atmosphere at this game because Plzen possess a lot of ex-Sparta Prague players and I believe that will motivate the visitors more to get a result here. Hell, there’s a damn good chance Plzen could win here, let alone not lose. Sparta have already shown their lack of depth this season by losing at an impotent Ceske Budejovice whereas Viktoria Plzen are really flexing their muscles this year with four wins and one draw from five Gambrinus Liga games. They’ve endured a nightmare tie with Besiktas JK but have bounced back from that eventual defeat in great fashion and looking as if they’d never cared less about an exit! Viktoria have such strong belief and a good side that I really fancy them to cause an upset here today. With the above in mind, laying the hosts at 10/11 could be a very good bet indeed today.

Verdict: Lay Sparta Prague at 10/11.

Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers – home win at 11/10.

I’m a really big fan of Exeter when they play at home because despite being some distance from being a good side in this division, they’re almost impossible to beat here. They don’t score enough goals to be consistently relied upon at home but their tenacity and support is absolutely unquestionable. They’ve already held a superior Colchester United side here this season and took Ipswich Town right to the wire in the League Cup here so I fancy Exeter to claim their first win of the season here. They’ve scored four goals in their past two home games and although their defence can be questionable, I still fancy them to win against Bristol Rovers today, just as they did at St.James’ Park last year. It aids my cause that Bristol Rovers are shipping goals for fun, too. They’ve leaked ten goals in three games, six of which were at League Two Oxford United in the League Cup, and have generally looked highly unconvincing as a result. They’ve only beaten Yeovil Town at home, which isn’t the most difficult of games to win, so Rovers are yet to start playing to their full potential. It’s a strange situation, really, as the majority of their current squad featured in their promotion drive last season and performed very well but this year they appear a tad sluggish and predictable so I think a tenacious host such as Exeter could and probably should have some joy against them. It’ll be a tight game and odds of 11/10 are quite fair but I still feel that Exeter have enough potency to win this one at home.

Verdict: Exeter City to win at 11/10.

Stromsgodset vs Brann Bergen – home win at 6/5.

How can anyone fault Stromsgodset currently? There’s such belief in their camp that they’ve won three consecutive games now without their two best strikers, arising talents Pedersen and Berget respectively. Stromsgodset don’t have a big squad so bluntly, they can’t have won those games and yet they did! The arising crop of youngsters at the Marienlyst are very pleasing on the eye with such a hunger for the game and although their immaturity tends to cost them defensively (especially on the road), they tend to score enough goals to counter it. Stromsgodset have won more home games in the Eliteserien than any other side this season with the above philosophy in mind and they have a good chance of increasing that record today, particularly as they average scoring two goals per home game currently. Godset have won this fixture for two consecutive seasons now and a weak Brann Bergen side won’t relish to the trip to Drammen with that in their minds.

I cannot deny that this poor Brann side have improved in recent weeks following much-needed talented reinforcements being added to their side but the fact is that they still rely far too much on talented attacker Huseklepp, who could very well leave the club at the end of this campaign if Brann don’t improve rapidly. Brann lost 3-1 at Start Kristiansand last match, which brings them to six defeats in ten away games this season, which isn’t good enough for a club of their stature. They leak nearly two goals per away game and generally look very unconvincing away from Bergen so I’m inclined to go against them today, although their play has improved in recent times.

Either way, odds of 6/5 on the home win look very tempting for me. I’m even happier with it if Pedersen and Berget start but it still looks a generous price either way with Brann looking particularly weak this year so my call is a Godset home win today.

Verdict: Stromsgodset to win at 6/5.

Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Gornik Polkowice – home win at 10/11.

Gorzow Wielkopolski have already proven their growing strength at home in Liga 1 with two wins from two home games so they do bring some momentum into this game. They were brought back down to earth with defeat at lowly Kolejarz Stroze last match in what was a rather bad-tempered affair with Gorzow having Wojciechowksi dismissed and he thus misses this game through suspension. However, the hosts are strong at home and were last season too despite drawing more games than they should have done so I do fancy them here, particularly after star striker Emil Drozdowicz has started the season so well. Gorzow are yet to concede a goal at home and I fancy them to be a real force at home this season so they should have enough to win this one today. Gornik Polkowice are a typical newly-promoted side in the sense that they know their boundaries. They’ve lost at a good Podsbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala side but beaten a mediocre Kluczbork side. Polkowice will line up defensively against their experienced hosts but taking points away from home in this league is like trying to piss in the wind; it just doesn’t work. They’re simply not as good as their hosts and the statistics (for a change!) back that up. The odds are a little generous on the home win although that’s probably due to Wielkopolski’s inability to finish sides off at home last season but they look strong enough to do it this time around so the home win looks a good bet for me today.

Verdict: Gorzow Wielkopolski to win at 10/11.

Accumulator fodder:

Velez Sarsfield, Wacker Innsbruck, Chernomorets Burgas, Universidad Catolica, Cibalia Vinkovci, FC Copenhagen, Barcelona Guayaquil, Arsenal, Chelsea, Gillingham, Sillamae Kalev, Levadia Tallinn, PK-35 Helsinki, Toulouse, Stade Rennais, Daugava Daugavpils, Heerenveen, Groningen, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Libertad Asuncion, FK Nizhnyi Novgorod, Shakhtar Donetsk.

Recommended bets:

Gorzow Wielkopolski, Shakhtar Donetsk, and PK-35 Helsinki at 2/1.

Heerenveen, Ajax, and Groningen at evens.

Chelsea, Arsenal, and Exeter City at 2/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Quilmes vs Atletico Lanus (5) 1-2
Velez Sarsfield vs Argentinos Juniors (8) 2-0
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Olimpo (6) 2-1
Racing Club Avellaneda vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (4) 1-1

Australian A-League:

Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets (7) 2-0
Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC (6) 1-1

Austrian Bundesliga:

Wacker Innsbruck vs LASK Linz (8) over 2.5 goals
Wiener Neustadt vs Ried (5) 2-1
SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (4) 1-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Germinal Beerschot vs Westerlo (5) 1-1
Zulte-Waregem vs Cercle Brugge (6) 1-1
Lokeren vs Anderlecht (5) 1-2
Lierse SK vs Kortrijk (6) 1-1

Brazilian Serie A:

Goias vs Gremio Prudente (5) 0-0
Botafogo vs Avai (7) over 2.5 goals
Ceara vs Gremio (5) 0-1, draw no bet

Bulgarian A PFG:

Beroe vs Montana (7) 1-0
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Slavia Sofia (5) 1-1
Akademik Sofia vs Sliven (4) 1-0, draw no bet
Chernomorets Burgas vs Rakovski (8) 2-1

Chilean Primera Division:

Huachipato vs Universidad de Concepcion (6) 2-1
Universidad Catolica vs San Luis (8) 2-1

Colombian Primera A:

Deportes Quindio vs Independiente Medellin (6) 1-1
Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Cucuta Deportivo (5) 2-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Sibenik (6) 0-0
Istra 1961 vs Osijek (5) 0-1
Varteks Varazdin vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac (6) 2-1
Cibalia Vinkovci vs Split (8) under 2.5 goals
Karlovac vs Rijeka (5) 1-1

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Slovan Liberec vs Marila Pribram (6) 2-1
Slovacko vs Usti nad Labem (7) 2-0
Sparta Prague vs Viktoria Plzen (4) 1-1

Danish Superligaen:

FC Copenhagen vs Lyngby (8) over 2.5 goals
Aalborg BK vs Esbjerg (6) 2-1 

Danish 1st Division:

Hobro vs Vejle (5) over 2.5 goals
Bronshoj vs Horring (5)

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Macara Ambato vs Emelec Guayaquil (5) 1-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Manta (8) under 2.5 goals

English Premier League:

Arsenal vs Blackpool (8) over 2.5 goals
Birmingham City vs Blackburn Rovers (6) 1-0
Everton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (7) 1-0
Stoke City vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) 1-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Sunderland (6) 1-1
West Ham United vs Bolton Wanderers (5) 0-0
Wigan Athletic vs Chelsea (8) over 2.5 goals

English Championship:

Coventry City vs Derby County (4)
Leeds United vs Millwall (5) draw no bet
Bristol City vs Barnsley (5)
Preston North End vs Portsmouth (6)
Reading vs Nottingham Forest (4)
Cardiff City vs Doncaster Rovers (7)
Hull City vs Watford (7)
Queens Park Rangers vs Scunthorpe United (8) over 2.5 goals
Norwich City vs Swansea City (6)
Burnley vs Leicester City (7)
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town (6)

English League One:

Southampton vs Leyton Orient (7)
Notts County vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6)
Swindon Town vs Brentford (4)
Rochdale vs Colchester United (5) over 2.5 goals
Tranmere Rovers vs Bournemouth (6)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6) over 2.5 goals
Walsall vs Plymouth Argyle (5)
Carlisle United vs Milton Keynes Dons (6)
Charlton Athletic vs Oldham Athletic (7)
Yeovil Town vs Hartlepool United (6)
Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers (6)
Peterborough United vs Huddersfield Town (6) over 2.5 goals

English League Two:

Gillingham vs Lincoln City (8)
Rotherham United vs Cheltenham Town (7)
Crewe Alexandra vs Barnet (6)
Burton Albion vs Morecambe (5)
Shrewsbury Town vs Aldershot Town (7) over 2.5 goals
Chesterfield vs Hereford United (6)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Oxford United (6) over 2.5 goals
Southend United vs Port Vale (4) draw no bet
Accrington Stanley vs Macclesfield Town (5)
Torquay United vs Bradford City (6) over 2.5 goals
Stevenage vs Stockport County (5) draw no bet
Bury vs Northampton Town (6) over 2.5 goals

Estonian Meistriliiga:

Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare (9) -1.5 handicap
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Nomme Kalju (4) 1-1
Viljandi Tulevik vs Flora Paide (5) 2-1
Lootus vs Sillamae Kalev (8) 0-2
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn (5) 2-2

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

AC Oulu vs Haka Valkeakoski (6) 2-1

Finnish Ykkonen:

OPS Oulu vs MP Mikkeli (7)
PK-35 Helsinki vs Hameenlinna (8)
PoPa Pori vs KPV Kokkola (6) both sides to score

French Ligue 1:

Racing Club Lens vs AS Monaco (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Brestois (7) 2-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Lorient (7) 2-0
OGC Nice vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (5) 1-1
Stade Rennais vs Saint-Etienne (8) 2-1
Toulouse vs Arles (8) 1-0
Auxerre vs Valenciennes (4) 0-0

German Bundesliga:

Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen (6) 1-1
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Nurnberg (6) 2-1
Koln vs Kaiserslautern (6) 1-0
Freiburg vs St.Pauli (4) 1-1
Hannover 96 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (6) 1-1
Hamburger SV vs Schalke 04 (6) 2-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Paderborn vs Erzgebirge Aue (7)
Ingolstadt vs Augsburg (5) over 2.5 goals

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Fehervar vs Ferencvaros (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Siofok vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (6) 1-1
Paksi SE vs Zalaegerszegi TE (4) 1-2
Ujpest vs Vasas Budapest (7) 1-0
Kecskemeti TE vs Szolnoki MAV (6) 0-0

Japanese J-League:

Kashima Antlers vs Cerezo Osaka (6) 2-1
Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (5) 1-0
Shonan Bellmare vs Urawa Red Diamonds (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Albirex Niigata vs Kawasaki Frontale (6) 2-2
Kyoto Sanga vs Yokohama F.Marinos (4) 1-1

Latvian Virsliga:

Jurmala vs RFS/Olimps Riga (7) 2-1
Daugava Daugavpils vs Jauniba (8) 2-0

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Tauras Taurage vs Kruoja Pakruojis (7) over 2.5 goals

Dutch Eredivisie:

Vitesse Arnhem vs Twente Enschede (5) 1-1
Groningen vs De Graafschap (8) 2-0
Heerenveen vs NAC Breda (8) 2-1
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Roda JC Kerkrade (8) over 2.5 goals

Mexican Primera Division:

Jaguares vs Cruz Azul (6) under 2.5 goals
Pachuca vs Monterrey (6) 1-1
Tigres UANL vs Santos Laguna (6) over 2.5 goals
Atlas vs Toluca (6) 1-1
Atlante vs Guadalajara (4) 1-1

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Stromsgodset vs Brann Bergen (6) 2-1

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

3 de Febrero vs Sol de America (5) 0-1
Rubio Nu vs Sportivo Luqueno (7) 2-1
Sport Colombia vs Tacuary (6) 2-0
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense (8) -1.5 handicap

Polish Ekstraklasa:

GKS Belchatow vs Ruch Chorzow (6) 0-0
Widzew Lodz vs Wisla Krakow (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Polonia Bytom vs Korona Kielce (5) 1-0
Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze (4) 1-1

Polish 1 Liga:

Sandecja Nowy Sacz vs Pogon Szezecin (6)
Dolcan Zabki vs Flora Swinoujscie (5)
Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Gornik Polkowice (7)
Ruch Razdionkow vs Kolejarz Stroze (5)
Gornik Leczna vs Katowice (6)
Kluczbork vs Nieciecza (6)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Vitoria Setubal vs Sporting Braga (6) 0-1
CD Nacional de Madeira vs SL Benfica (4) 1-1

Scottish Premier League:

Hamilton Academicals vs Hearts (6) 0-0
St.Johnstone vs Aberdeen (5) 1-1

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

Kosice vs Spartak Trnava (5) 1-2, draw no bet
MSK Zilina vs Senica (7) 2-0
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Nitra (6) over 2.5 goals
Zlate Moravce vs Dubnica (6) 2-0
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Tatran Presov (5) 1-1

Slovenian Prva Liga:

Nafta Lendava vs Triglav (7) 2-0
Gorica vs Primorje (6) 2-1
Rudar Velenje vs Domzale (6) 1-1

Swedish Allsvenskan:

Gefle vs Mjallby Solvesborg (5) 1-1

Swedish Superettan:

Degerfors vs IFK Norrkoping (6) draw no bet

Swiss Super League:

St.Gallen vs Sion (6) 1-1
Thun vs Basel (5) 2-2

Swiss Challenge League:

Yverdon Sport vs Winterthur (5)
Aarau vs Schaffhausen (6)
Biel-Bienne vs Chiasso (6)
Servette vs Kriens (7)
Delemont vs Stade Nyonnais (6)

Turkish Super Lig:

Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor (6) 2-1
Besiktas JK vs Istanbul BB (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Ukrainian Premier League:

Volyn Lutsk vs Shakhtar Donetsk (8) 0-2
Illichivets Mariupol vs Arsenal Kiev (5) 1-1
Metalurg Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava (6) 1-0

Welsh Premier League:

Bala Town vs Bangor City (6) 1-2
Carmarthen Town vs Airbus (7) 2-0
Prestatyn Town vs Haverfordwest County (6) over 2.5 goals

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Romanian Liga:

Targu Mures vs Dinamo Bucharest (6) 0-1
Astra Ploiesti vs Universitatea Craiova (5) 1-1
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Gaz Metan Medias (6) 0-0

Russian Premier League:

Spartak Moscow vs Tom Tomsk (7) 2-1
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Terek Grozny (5) over 2.5 goals

Russian Division 1:

Energia Khabarovsk vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (5)
Luch-Energiya Vladivostok vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (5) draw no bet
Mordovia Saransk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ (4) draw no bet
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Dinamo Bryansk (8)
Salyut Belgorod vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast (6)
Avangard Kursk vs Irtysh Omsk (6)
Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan vs Baltika Kaliningrad (6)
Rotor Volgograd vs Dinamo St.Petersburg (5)
Kuban Krasnodar vs FK Khimki (7) under 2.5 goals

Serbian Super Liga:

Sevojno vs OFK Belgrade (6) 1-1
Metalac GM vs Rad Belgrade (5) 0-0
Cukaricki vs Borac Cacak (3) 1-2, draw no bet
BSK Borca vs Vojvodina Novi Sad (6) 0-1
Jagodina vs Smederevo (7) 2-1