Brescia vs AC Milan

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Today’s secondary featured game is the Serie A encounter between newly-promoted Brescia and giants AC Milan. Both of these sides need points for completely opposite reasons so I don’t expect the stereotypical defensive game here.

Hosts Brescia are four points adrift of safety with just five games remaining; time to buckle down, guys! They need to make it count in games like this as they’re woeful away from home. Brescia hasn’t been an easy away game for any side this season and I don’t think that’ll change today. However, Brescia need points so they have to attack AC Milan, which leaves them open for counter-attacks. What’s even more depressing for Brescia (other than that they have to attack what is currently the best side in Italy!) is that they’ve nobody who can score for them today. Star striker Caracciolo is absent, as is his partner-in-crime Diamanti. Could it be worse for Brescia than having to attack a very good side, needing to score goals, and only having an unconvincing Eder in attack? Sure it can! They’re also missing attacking midfielder Kone and defender Zoboli so times aren’t good for them currently. Brescia aren’t easy to beat here though, as I’ve touched upon briefly already. However, what should we note about Brescia’s six home defeats this season? They’ve not scored in four of those games. Therefore, the lesson here is that if you stop Brescia scoring, there’s a very good chance you’ll win here.

AC Milan unfortunately miss Nesta for this game, which is a big blow as he and Thiago Silva have formed an extremely strong bond at the back that sides struggle to penetrate. However, they picked a good time to miss him on the basis that Brescia’s two best strikers are absent today so I won’t read too much into it. Milan have won three out of their last four away games in Serie A, beating both Fiorentina and Juventus along the way so winning in difficult games is not something they’re unfamiliar with! They’re missing the sullen Ibrahimovic for this game through suspension but in Pato, Robinho, and Cassano, they’ve got more than enough firepower to harm Brescia here. Milan still have their usual absences – will they ever have a fit team again?! – with Gattuso and Pirlo absent. However, again, they’ve got more than enough experience and alternatives to cope in this game so they should manage to win this one.

Milan are six points clear of Napoli with five games remaining. With a tough trip to AS Roma still on their fixture list, as well as Coppa Italia commitments, Milan need to wrap up the scudetto sooner rather than later, starting today. Brescia cannot afford to sit back here and yet they’re not likely to be able to convert most of their chances so it’s a catch twenty-two situation for them at the moment. With the above in mind, however, you have to feel that there’s value on an AC Milan win at 4/5 today.

Team news – Brescia miss Zoboli, Caracciolo, Diamanti, Kone, and Lanzafame whereas AC Milan miss Ibrahimovic, Bonera, Gattuso, Nesta, Pirlo, and Van Bommel.

Verdict: AC Milan to win at 4/5.

You can bet on this game now at one of the best bookmakers or you can check the latest betting odds comparison at www.OddsPortal.com!


Betadvisor best sports tipsters

Saturday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

River Plate vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – lay River Plate at 9/10.

As ever, River Plate continue to baffle me by winning games despite barely scoring any goals. Only Argentinos Juniors, All Boys, and rather amusingly, bitter rivals Boca Juniors have scored less goals than River have in the current campaign and yet River are still second in the table! Bizarre!

I like going against River when they play this style, however. Why? Well, at some point, they tend to impale themselves on their own sword as they play too defensively and fail to score goals and thus draw games. It’s quite smart of them to deploy more defensive tactics, really, as they don’t have much firepower nowadays but they do have a solid defence. River enter this game on the back of a baffling 0-0 draw at Gimnasia De La Plata despite every side but Atletico Lanus having smashed goals past Cappa’s team for fun this season. River do love their 1-0 wins, just as they did at Quilmes and against Banfield. However, they need to both take their chances and keep clean sheets or they fail to win. River have only won once this season in a game where they’ve conceded so you can see their Achilles heel!

Can River win this game? Of course they can. Are the odds ridiculously short though? Absolutely! Godoy aren’t a great team but they’re a well-organised and hard-working bunch that do score goals. They welcome back Rojas from international duty to boost their attacking options and with Ramirez a constant threat in attack, this Godoy side is constantly dangerous. Defensively, Godoy aren’t secure and they can concede here but they love to counter-attack and score goals and that makes them very dangerous here. They’ve only lost one out of five away games in the current campaign but have won 0-1 at Estudiantes De La Plata and 1-4 at Boca Juniors so they need to be taken seriously here. They average scoring two goals per away game and only Olimpo can match their excellent goals tally on the road so why not anticipate a surprise here?

River are more than capable of scoring here but in my humble opinion, Godoy are much better placed to score goals here and if they score one then I just don’t think River will win. Interestingly, Godoy have won two out of their last three away games against River Plate. Give it some thought!

Team news – River Plate have doubts over Carrizo and Maidana.

Verdict: Lay River Plate at 9/10.

St.Pauli vs Werder Bremen - away win at 5/4.

Could it possibly be…? Surely not – Werder Bremen aren’t finally running out of important absent players, are they?! They’ll be able to field a full-strength side when Naldo returns and I’ve no idea when that was last possible for this injury-ravaged side.

Werder have quietly gone about their ways lately and have actually lost just once in their past ten games so they are massively improving. Pizarro is alive and well so that means Werder at least have someone to put the ball in the net. Playmaker Wesley is back in town and with Frings sat behind him, Werder have a good chance of dominating any midfield in the Bundesliga. Lumbering Mertesacker adds stability at the back and Werder’s long-awaited pleasure of having options in their team is finally back so I’m going to give them a shot here. They’ve been especially impressive away from home lately with their dangerous counter-attacks, winning 1-3 at Nurnberg and SC Freiburg respectively, which have been two of the hardest away games in the Bundesliga this season. They drew 1-1 with Eintracht Frankfurt in their last away game but this is a goalscoring Werder side and that makes them very dangerous here because their weakness is conceding stupid goals, something which tends to require a semi-decent attack, which St.Pauli don’t have.

I just like opposing St.Pauli at the moment, to be honest. They’re real grafters and I respect them for it but they lack quality in many areas of the field and subsequently don’t score enough goals to beat sides whilst conceding copious amounts of goals along the way. They’ve lost seven out of their last eight games and have conceded a minimum of two goals per game along the way – barring their 0-1 defeat against Hannover 96, of course. They concede way too many goals and that’s a terrible characteristic to possess against a rejuvenated Werder Bremen side.

Will the away win happen today? It really should. St.Pauli miss important defenders Ozcipka and Zambrano and back-up defender Rothenbach from their already weak defence so how they’ll keep Bremen out today I don’t know. For me, there’s value in the away win here.

Team news – St.Pauli miss Hain, Ozcipka, Rothenbach, Volz, Zambrano, Herber, and Sukuta-Pasu whereas Werder Bremen miss Vander, Wiedwald, Andersen, Boenisch, Naldo, Prodl, Samuel, Huseljinovic, Ikeng, Jensen, Vranjes, Ayik, Schindler, Testroet, and Thy.

Verdict: Werder Bremen to win at 5/4.

You can bet on this game now at one of the best bookmakers or you can check the latest betting odds comparison at www.OddsPortal.com!

Schalke 04 vs Kaiserslautern – home win at evens.

Schalke aren’t a bad side; they just need the right manager to unite them and Rangnick appears to be the man to do it. They’ve won three out of their last five Bundesliga games in composed fashion, losing just once along the way and claiming a valuable 1-1 draw at Werder Bremen in their last match. During that run, they’ve beaten Internazionale twice in the UEFA Champions League and have generally attacked very well indeed, so much so that I don’t expect them to miss Huntelaar today. Raul is deadly with the right service and that is being provided in abundance by Schalke’s midfield so I think they stand a very good chance of continuing their good run today, especially with their cast-iron defence. Only two Bundesliga sides have better defensive records at home than Schalke do this season so you can see that Kaiserslautern have a tough game ahead of them.

Relegation-threatened Kaiserslautern have done well on the road lately, winning twice and drawing once in their last three games. They’re becoming desperate in their bid to beat the drop but the players are responding well so Kaiserslautern need to be respected here. However, I think they’ve got a tough match against in-form and rejuvenated Schalke today and I just don’t see how they’re going to break through their defence, especially with attacking midfielder Ilicevic absent today. The absence of Slovakian target man Nemec means that Kaiserslautern’s attack will be painfully obvious as only Lakic provides a constant threat so I wonder what Rangnick will do here – maybe just stick towering Mertesacker on him? I think so! Without Lakic having the right support to take attention away from himself, Kaiserslautern’s attack should suffer here and we all know their defence is abysmal so as I said before – they look to be in for a long game here.

Team news - Schalke 04 miss Unnerstall, Hoogland, Howedes, Pachan, Pander, Kenla, Kluge, Moritz, Streit, Gavranovic, Huntelaar, Muller, and Pourie whereas Kaiserslautern miss Knaller, Correia, Damjanovic, Lucas, Simunek, Dzaka, Fuchs, Ilicevic, Stulin, Nemec, and Zellner.

Verdict: Schalke 04 to win at evens.

You can bet on this game now at one of the best bookmakers or you can check the latest betting odds comparison at www.OddsPortal.com!

AS Roma vs Chievo Verona – both sides to score at 4/5.

I like this bet a lot more than I should, really!

Since Vincenzo Montella took over, Roma have played with more spirit but not with more intelligence and it’s showing. They’re conceding far too many goals and now that Mexes is out injured, their defence may as well not be there, in my view. They’ve kept just two clean sheets under Montella – one of those games was at a massively under-strength Bologna team and the other was in the Rome derby against Lazio so you can see where I’m coming from here. Roma concede an awful lot of goals for a good side and although that’s more notable on the road than it is at home, it should still be obvious here with no Mexes to bail them out. It’s not particularly relevant here but take a second to realise that Roma have conceded so many goals away from home that only Lecce and Palermo have conceded more than they have on the road with all of the bottom three boasting a better defensive record than Roma do on their travels. That’s alarming, isn’t it? At home, their record looks much better on paper but consider that seven of their seventeen goals conceded at home in Serie A this season have been in their last four games, all of which Montella has been in charge for, and you can see where I am coming from. Don’t get me wrong here – I do think Roma will win the game due to their excellent midfield but I doubt it’ll be with a clean sheet.

Chievo are a funny kind of team. You wouldn’t know it from their statistics but they’re one of the most dangerous counter-attacking sides in Serie A, in my humble opinion. The only statistic I can find that backs up my opinion is that the only other side than themselves that scores more away goals than home goals in Serie A is Udinese as both like to deploy a similar style of football, although Udinese are obviously much better at it currently. Chievo have a lot of pace on the break and with only Rigoni absent for them today, I fancy them to play their usual counter-attacking game and trouble Roma’s dodgy defence.

Chievo have scored at Lazio, Napoli, and AC Milan already this season, to name a few. In fact, Chievo have scored in ten out of their sixteen Serie A away games this season so I think we may well be on a winner here. Roma’s defence is not good without Mexes so my call is for both sides to score here at 4/5.

Team news – AS Roma miss Mexes whereas Chievo Verona miss Jokic, Rigoni, and Luciano.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.

You can bet on this game now at one of the best bookmakers or you can check the latest betting odds comparison at www.OddsPortal.com!

Palermo vs SSC Napoli – Edinson Cavani to score anytime at evens.

I think this one speaks for itself, really! Cavani notoriously moved from Palermo to Napoli pre-season and has proven himself to an immense degree as a gifted finisher. I’d argue that he’s been the best striker in Serie A this eason, in fact. Palermo’s defence isn’t an unfamiliar sight for the Uruguayan hitman whatsoever; he’ll know them inside out. Given the importance of the game and the attacking nature of both sides, I think backing Cavani to score at any time in the game at evens is a good value bet today – players often score against their old clubs!

Team news – SSC Napoli miss Lavezzi.

Verdict: Edinson Cavani to score any time at evens.

Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Kuban’ Krasnodar – over 2.5 goals at 7/5.

I’ve got a feeling that this will be one of the better games of the day. These two sides are newcomers to the Russian Premier League and have everything to prove and nothing to lose and that’s reflected in the tactics of both teams. Volga have gone over 2.5 goals in two out of their last three games, smashing three goals past Dinamo Moscow along the way. Volga’s bunch of Georgians add strength to the team and with ex-Barcelona playmaker Crosas pulling the strings, it’s fair to observe that Volga should be an attacking threat this season. Dan Petrescu’s Kuban’ Krasnodar offer a similar threat although with a less recognisable team sheet. That said, big-money signing Traore has the potential to be a very good striker in years to come and he’ll play a big part if Kuban’ are to beat the drop this season. Kuban’ play with spirit, just like Volga, and I expect to see an enthusiastic display of attacking football from the two of them. That type of game failed to materialise between the two of them last season in either meeting but Volga have signed a lot of new players since then that Tetradze is gelling intothe team very well indeed. There are gaps for Kuban’ to exploit, however, and the firepower of the hosts should be enough to trouble their opponents too. Both have done well against good sides thus far and I just think we’ll see a very open game with plenty of goals here. Overs in Russia are pretty rare but I still think that 7/5 is too long on over 2.5 goals here with the above in mind, hence my selection.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 7/5.

Partizan Belgrade vs Red Star Belgrade – home win at 6/5.

Partizan are simply the better of the Belgrade giants nowadays. More money, bette academy players, and a better setup overall. It’s no surprise that this has been reflected in recent years too with Partizan winning five out of the last six meetings between these two sides at either ground. Red Star’s defence is susceptible with the appropriate attack and given that Red Star have scored just twice against Partizan in their last six meetings, it’s fair to assess that Red Star have a long game ahead of them. It’s a pivotal game in the title race, admittedly, but 6/5 on the better of these two sides winning this game? I can’t fathom that! Therefore, my call is a Partizan win at 6/5.

Verdict: Partizan Belgrade to win at 6/5.

Young Lions vs Gombak United – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.

I can’t simplify this one more than by stating that Young Lions don’t score goals and Gombak’s experienced defence doesn’t concede goals. Young Lions can be vulnerable at the back but Gombak don’t generally care about scoring goals themselves anyway. The last three games between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals and I’d be surprised to see anything but that today. I’m just surprised that the odds are as generous as 9/10!

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Basel vs Young Boys Bern – home win at 4/5.

Let’s be blunt – there’s going to be a lot of goals in this game, as usual. However, given the depleted side that Young Boys Bern have at their disposal today, I have to favour a home win here. Young Boys Bern miss defenders Spycher and Dudar and even have doubts over El-Jemal. Considering that defending isn’t something they’re good at anyway, you sense that Basel will score at least twice in this game. Young Boys Bern are a good attacking side and I’m sure N’Tsama and Mayuka will cause mayhem in the Basel defence with the promising African twosome destroying most Super League defences on a regular basis. With the likes of Farnerud, Degen, and Lulic supporting them, it’s easy to see why they’re so successful. However, Young Boys Bern don’t like playing away from home as they’re not on their beloved artificial turf and that’s going to go against them massively today. Young Boys Bern have lost their last two trips to face Basel and given that Basel must win this game following their unbelievable draw at Neuchatel Xamax earlier this week, I’m definitely interested in the home win here. Basel are just a point clear of FC Zurich now; they need to start winning again and with the firepower of Frei, Streller, Stocker, and Shaqiri, they should have more than enough to beat Young Boys Bern, especially with half of their opponents’ defence absent.

Team news – Young Boys Bern miss Dudar, Spycher, De Pierro, M.Schneuwly, and Dussin whilst having doubts over El-Jemal and C.Schneuwly.

Verdict: Basel to win at 4/5.

You can bet on this game now at one of the best bookmakers or you can check the latest betting odds comparison at www.OddsPortal.com!

Accumulator fodder:

Velez Sarsfield, BATE Borisov, Universidad de Chile, Universidad Catolica, Dinamo Zagreb, Chelsea, Nomme Kalju, FC Honka Espoo, Fehervar, Kawasaki Frontale, Ekranas Panevezys, Suduva Marijampole, AZ Alkmaar, Polonia Warsaw, Poli Timisoara.

Recommended bets:

AC Milan, FC Honka Espoo, and BATE Borisov at over 2/1.

Basel, Chelsea, and Fehervar at over 2/1.

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Newells Old Boys vs Banfield (6) 1-1
Independiente vs All Boys (7) 2-0
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Colon de Santa Fe (4) 1-2
Velez Sarsfield vs Quilmes (8) 2-0
River Plate vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (6) 1-1

Austrian Bundesliga:

SV Kapfenberg vs Sturm Graz (5) 1-1
SV Mattersburg vs LASK Linz (5) 2-2
Salzburg vs Wacker Innsbruck (7) 1-0
Rapid Vienna vs Wiener Neustadt (7) 2-1

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:

FC Minsk vs Vitebsk (7) 1-0
Neman Grodno vs Belshina Bobriusk (6) 1-1
Gomel vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (4) 2-1
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Brest (6) 2-1
Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Minsk (7) 0-1
BATE Borisov vs Torpedo Zhodino (8) 2-0

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Racing Genk vs AA Gent (7) 2-1
Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen (7) 1-1
Lierse SK vs Sint-Truiden (4) 1-1
Westerlo vs Germinal Beerschot (6) 2-1
Charleroi vs AS Eupen (6) over 2.5 goals

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Akademik Sofia (7) 1-0

Chilean Primera Division:

O’Higgins vs Union La Calera (7) 1-0
Santiago Wanderers vs Universidad de Concepcion (6) 2-1
Huachipato vs Cobreloa (7) 2-1
Universidad de Chile vs Palestino (8) 2-0
Universidad Catolica vs Cobresal (8) 2-0
Deportes Iquique vs Audax Italiano (5) over 2.5 goals

Colombian Primera A:

Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali (6) 1-0
Cucuta Deportivo vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (6) 1-1
Deportivo Cali vs Envigado (5) 1-0

Croatian Prva Liga:

Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Cibalia Vinkovci (7) 1-1
Karlovac vs NK Zagreb (6) 1-0
Varteks Varazdin vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (6) 2-1
Rijeka vs Istra 1961 (6) 1-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs Osijek (8) 2-0
Split vs Sibenik (5) 1-1
Zadar vs Inter Zapresic (6) 1-1
Slaven Koprivnica vs Hajduk Split (6) 0-0

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Slovacko vs Banik Ostrava (5) 2-1

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Espoli Cayambe vs Liga de Quito (7) 0-1
LDU Loja vs Imbabura (6) 2-1

English Premier League:

Manchester United vs Everton (6) 2-1
Aston Villa vs Stoke City (5) 1-1
Blackpool vs Newcastle United (4) over 2.5 goals
Liverpool vs Birmingham City (6) 1-0
Sunderland vs Wigan Athletic (4) 0-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs West Bromwich Albion (3) 2-2
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham (4) 1-2
Chelsea vs West Ham United (8) 2-0

English Championship:

Cardiff City vs Queens Park Rangers (4)
Sheffield United vs Bristol City (5)
Watford vs Barnsley (6)
Hull City vs Middlesbrough (7)
Portsmouth vs Swansea City (6)
Derby County vs Burnley (5)
Millwall vs Preston North End (4) both sides to score

English League One:

Yeovil Town vs Bournemouth (5)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Southampton (6)
Rochdale vs Carlisle United (7)
Swindon Town vs Notts County (5)
Walsall vs Sheffield Wednesday (6) both sides to score
Bristol Rovers vs Charlton Athletic (5)

English League Two:

Hereford United vs Shrewsbury Town (6)
Aldershot Town vs Burton Albion (7)
Accrington Stanley vs Bradford City (6)
Cheltenham Town vs Macclesfield Town (5)
Port Vale vs Stockport County (7)
Gillingham vs Barnet (7)
Oxford United vs Chesterfield (5)

Estonian Meistriliiga:

Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn (6) 0-0
Viljandi vs Paide (6) 1-0
Nomme Kalju vs Ajax Lasnamae (9) -1.5 handicap
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Kuressaare (6) 2-1
Levadia Tallinn vs Sillamae Kalev (6) 1-2

Finnish Liiga Cup:

FC Honka Espoo vs Tampere United (8) 2-0

French Ligue 2:

Angers SCO vs Reims (6)

German Bundesliga:

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern Munich (7) 1-2
St.Pauli vs Werder Bremen (7) 1-2
VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV (5) 1-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim (8) 2-0
Schalke 04 vs Kaiserslautern (7) 2-0
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund (7) over 2.5 goals

German Bundesliga 2:

Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Karlsruher SC (5)
1860 Munich vs Greuther Furth (6)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Fehervar vs Lombard Papa (8) 2-0
Siofok vs Szolnoki MAV (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Kecskemeti TE vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (5) 0-1
Vasas Budapest vs Debreceni VSC (6) 1-1
Budapest Honved vs Paksi SE (5) 1-1

Italian Serie A:

AS Roma vs Chievo Verona (7) 2-1
Bologna vs Cesena (6) 1-1
Cagliari vs Fiorentina (5) 1-0
Internazionale vs Lazio (4) 1-1
Genoa vs Lecce (7) 1-0
Palermo vs SSC Napoli (6) 2-2
Udinese vs Parma (7) 2-1
Bari vs Sampdoria (6) 0-0
Brescia vs AC Milan (7) 0-1
Juventus vs Catania (4) 2-2

Japanese J-League:

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka (7) 2-0
Kashima Antlers vs Yokohama F.Marinos (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Omiya Ardija vs Kashiwa Reysol (5) 1-1
Ventforet Kofu vs Vissel Kobe (6) 1-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Vegalta Sendai (8) 2-0

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Atlantas vs Tauras Taurage (6) 0-1
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Ekranas Panevezys (8) 1-2
Mazeikiai vs FBK Kaunas (7) 2-0
Banga Gargzdai vs Suduva Marijampole (8) 1-2

Mexican Primera Division:

Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara (6) 2-1
Queretaro vs Pachuca (6) 1-1
Monterrey vs Puebla (5) 1-0
Santos Laguna vs San Luis (7) 2-0
Atlas vs Jaguares (4) 1-1

Dutch Eredivisie:

Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar (8) over 2.5 goals
Heracles Almelo vs De Graafschap (7) 1-0
Roda JC Kerkrade vs NAC Breda (6) 2-1
VVV Venlo vs Heerenveen (6) 1-2

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

Nacional Asuncion vs Tacuary (7) 1-0
Rubio Nu vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 0-1
3 de Febrero vs Sportivo Luqueno (6) 2-1

Peruvian Primera Division:

CNI vs Sport Boys (6) 1-0
Universitario Lima vs Alianza Atletico (7) 1-0

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Korona Kielce vs Ruch Chorzow (5) 2-1
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warsaw (6) 1-1
Widzew Lodz vs Polonia Bytom (6) 1-1
Lech Poznan vs GKS Belchatow (7) 1-0
Polonia Warsaw vs Arka Gdynia (8) 2-0

Polish Liga 1:

Nieciecza vs Gornik Polkowice (6)
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Kluczbork (5)
Odra Wodzislaw vs Kolejarz Stroze (5)
Pogon Szczecin vs Bogdanka Leczna (6)
Katowice vs Ruch Radzionkow (6)

Romanian Liga:

Victoria Branesti vs Universitatea Cluj (5) over 2.5 goals
CFR Cluj vs Vaslui (6) 0-1
Poli Timisoara vs Targu Mures (8) 2-0

Russian Premier League:

Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Kuban’ Krasnodar (5) 2-2
Rostov-na-Donu vs Terek Grozny (7) 1-0
FK Krasnodar vs Lokomotiv Moscow (6) 1-1

Scottish Premier League:

Dundee United vs Kilmarnock (6) 2-1
Hearts vs Motherwell (6) 1-0

Serbian Super Liga:

OFK Belgrade vs Vojvodina Novi Sad (6) 1-1
Rad Belgrade vs Spartak Subotica (6) 1-0
Cukaricki vs Javor Ivanjica (6) 0-1
Sevojno vs Jagodina (7) 2-1
Indija vs Borac Cacak (6) 0-0
Hajduk Kula vs Smederevo (5) 1-1
Metalac GM vs BSK Borca (6) 2-1
Partizan Belgrade vs Red Star Belgrade (7) 2-0, at least one red card in this game

Singaporean S-League:

Young Lions vs Gombak United (7) 0-1

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Zlate Moravce (7) 2-1
Nitra vs Slovan Bratislava (6) 1-2
Ruzomberok vs MSK Zilina (6) 0-1
Spartak Trnava vs DAC Dunajska Streda (7) 1-0
Tatran Presov vs Dubnica (6) 1-1

Slovenian Prva Liga:

Primorje vs Nafta Lendava (5) 1-1
Koper vs Domzale (6) 1-1
Maribor vs Rudar Velenje (6) 1-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Valencia CF vs Real Madrid (5) 1-1
Barcelona vs Osasuna (7) 2-1
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Real Sociedad (7) 2-0, at least one red card in this game

Spanish Segunda Liga;

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Las Palmas (5) both sides to score
Elche vs Huesca (7)
Tenerife vs Villarreal II (5)
Cordoba vs Granada (5)
Numancia vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Cartagena vs Real Valladolid (6)
Deportivo Xerez vs Albacete (6)
Celta de Vigo vs Ponferradina (7)

Swiss Super League:

Luzern vs Bellinzona (6) 1-0
Basel vs Young Boys Bern (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
St.Gallen vs Sion (6) 1-1

Swiss Challenge League:

Chiasso vs Lausanne Sports (7)
Wohlen vs SC Kriens (6)
Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport (6)

Turkish Super Lig:

Karabukspor vs Sivasspor (6) 1-1
Bursaspor vs Manisaspor (7) 2-1
Galatasaray vs Kayserispor (5) 1-0

Ukrainian Premier League:

Karpaty Lviv vs Tavriya Simferopol (5) 1-1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Metalist Kharkiv (6) 2-1
Arsenal Kiev vs Dynamo Kiev (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (5) 0-1

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Bella Vista vs Montevideo Wanderers (5) 1-1
Liverpool Montevideo vs El Tanque Sisley (7) 2-1
Rampla Juniors vs Penarol (7) 0-2

Welsh Premier League:

Haverfordwest County vs Airbus UK (5) 0-0
Newtown vs Aberystwyth Town (6) 1-1
Port Talbot Town vs Bangor City (6) 1-2

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Brescia vs Ascoli

Today’s featured game is the Serie B encounter between Brescia and Ascoli. Serie B has had a lot of bad press lately following the hype surrounding Gallipoli’s 2-2 draw with Grosseto and the influx of 2-2 bets at 8/1 shortly before the Grosseto equaliser so don’t be surprised if your bookmaker isn’t giving odds on this game – some bookies are boycotting this division. However, I like this league as it tends to run like clockwork so I’m going to continue betting on it!

Hosts Brescia are starting to get into top gear, which must be worrying for their rivals as Brescia are one of the best sides in this division. Brescia are excellent at home with nine wins in thirteen games this season. They average scoring nearly two goals per game and concede less than a goal per game. Brescia have won their last four home games consecutively and have scored eight times in doing so, conceding just twice along the way. Brescia’s overall form shows that they’re unbeaten in seven Serie B games so their momentum is very strong at the moment, particularly as they’ve won five of those games. Brescia stand a very good change of achieving promotion to Serie A if they maintain this form so they’ll be well-motivated for this game as well as having all the necessary ability to win the encounter.

Visitors Ascoli are not going to go quietly, however. They’re also unbeaten in seven games and have won five of those games too. However, two consecutive draws show that Ascoli’s run is gradually halting so they’re beginning to look a little more beatable. They’ve lost four out of thirteen away games in Serie B this season and are amongst the top goalscorers in the division away from home. However, Ascoli forgot all about their potency in their last away game at Mantova and managed a rather unimpressive 0-0 draw. I rate Mantova but Ascoli’s momentum and potency should have seen them win that game so I think this is a further sign that they’re going off the boil a litle. Ascoli are a capable side but only in short bursts; they’re not as good a side as Brescia.

I can see why the bookies have given good odds on this game give both sides’ form but they wouldn’t give odds like this had Ascoli not been in form because Brescia are considerably better than they are. Brescia traditionally do very well at home and have proven this various times this season already. Brescia won the last meeting here between these two sides and with their strong momentum at the moment I expect them to beat Ascoli again.

Verdict: Brescia to win at 5/6.

Friday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente – home win at 13/10.

These odds are too good to resist! Velez Sarsfield are one of the best sides in Argentina at the moment and they’re currently top of the Primera Division. They’ve won twice and drawn twice in their four games so far. I’ve actually been more convinced by them on the road than at home but frankly they’re a threat wherever the play. They’ve only conceded twice in their four games but have scored six times, emphasing their typically ruthless efficiency in winning games. They’ve even beaten Brazil’s Cruzeiro along the way in the Copa Libertadores although that was assisted by Cruzeiro deciding that playing the game with nine men would somehow be easier than playing with eleven men. Nonetheless, Velez have gained a lot of momentum from this run so should make it count tonight.

Independiente are unbeaten in their two away games so far in the Clausura but each time it’s been because their hosts have failed to score against them; Independiente are yet to score an away goal. They’ve played some interesting games at home that they’ve won somewhat fortunately. I admire their ability to keep clean sheets on the road but can’t help feeling that it’s because they’ve not faced a good side yet. Indepediente were great away from home in the Apertura but that was because they scored a lot of goals, something that they’re not doing in the Clausura so it’s only a matter of time before it falls down around them.

Ironically, Independiente have drawn here 0-0 for their last two visits and considering they’ve drawn their other two games 0-0 already you’d think there’s a good chance of another 0-0 draw. It goes against my bet entirely so I don’t believe it myself; I think Velez Sarsfield are well placed to beat Independiente tonight and there’s value in the odds so I’ll take the home win.

Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win at 13/10.

Wiener Neustadt vs Rapid Vienna – lay Rapid Vienna at evens.

Hosts Wiener Neustadt lost their first game back from the winter break at SV Mattersburg as I correctly predicted. It’s now time for them to prove that they’re still a force at home so they can avoid being sent straight back down to Liga 1. Wiener Neustadt have already won six out of eleven home games in the Bundesliga this season and have only been beaten three times during that run. They concede an awful lot of goals as you’d expect from a newly-promoted side but they score an awful lot too. In fact, only LASK Linz and tonight’s opponents Rapid Vienna have scored more goals at home than they have in this campaign with Wiener Neustadt averaging scoring approximately 2.5 goals per home game. Wiener Neustadt therefore have a chance to do damage tonight so it’ll be interesting to see how it goes.

Rapid Vienna are arguably the best side in Austria so it takes a lot for me to go against them. However, their defeat at LASK Linz last week demonstrated why I’m doing so; because I believe that their hosts can outscore them. There’s no way on earth that Wiener Neustadt are as good as Rapid Vienna but they’re incredibly potent at home whereas Rapid Vienna away from home really aren’t that good a side. In fact they’ve only won three times in ten away games this season and don’t score many more than they concede, hence their issues. Rapid Vienna did win here 4-0 earlier in the season but I’m carefully overlooking that because Rapid Vienna were in sublime form at the time; they’re not now, particularly after their 4-2 crushing at LASK Linz. Rapid Vienna are a very capable side but they’re going to have to score a lot of goals tonight to overcome a resilient Wiener Neustadt and I just don’t think that they’re in the right frame of mind to do so.

Aside from Rapid Vienna’s win here earlier in the season, only Salzburg from Austria’s “big four” have won here and they had to score three goals to win the game (full time scoreline was 2-3) which proves my point about the away side needing to score a lot of goals. Rapid Vienna definitely have the potential to do it but they don’t have the form or the momentum. Rapid’s odds are far too short with this in mind so there has to be value in laying Rapid tonight.

Verdict: Lay Rapid Vienna at evens.

Bury vs Shrewsbury Town – home win at evens.

Despite defeat at Chesterfield last match, Bury’s resurgence goes on with more and more players returning from injury. They’re up to third in the League Two table and have won seven out of their last nine League Two games so their momentum is still good. They’ve won their last six home games consecutively, including a 1-0 win against bitter rivals Rochdale, so they’re a reliable force there. Had it not been for an awful start to their campaign then Bury’s home record would look considerably better at the moment. Nonetheless, Bury are looking reliable and consistent at home which is largely because of a compact defence that has only conceded twice in their six home games. Bury aren’t a prolific side at all but they tend to do enough by keeping other sides out and whatever method works for them suits me just fine – they look good value to me!

Visitors Shrewsbury Town are one of League Two’s more notorious home sides. They’ve become a bit better on the road this season but they’ve still lost five out of their fifteen away games and still concede more goals than they score so haven’t yet convinced me that they’re a proper force in this league. Shrewsbury have been playing well lately with four wins in their last five games but it’s worth mentioning that only one of those games were away from home and that was against a very poor Macclesfield Town. Shrewsbury are certainly a capable side but I can’t see them breaking down a resolute Bury defence and I can’t see their leaky defence keeping an efficient Bury out so there should be value in the home win tonight.

Verdict: Bury to win at evens.

Nantes vs Bastia – home win at 5/6.

I’ve been going against Nantes for weeks now but I’m finally going to back them to turn their fortunes around tonight, if only temporarily. My sole reason for backing the home win tonight is odds. You will never see these odds again in your life because Nantes are twice the side that Bastia are; they’re just horrendously out of form. Nantes haven’t been scoring goals hence their issues but that luck has to change at somepoint so why not tonight? They put in a good display at Strasbourg and probably didn’t deserve to lose the game but that’s the way luck has been with them lately. Nantes have scored in four out of their last five Ligue 2 games at home and although they’ve only won once they’re still showing the capability of winning. Although Bastia have improved lately the fact remains that they’ve lost ten out of twelve Ligue 2 games on the road. They also struggle to score goals although their problem is considerably more permanent than Nantes’ as they’ve scored just four away goals all season. Bastia are a lot better than they were a few weeks ago but they’re still not doing enough in my opinion. This should be a close game and could even end a draw but I cannot overlook these odds of a home win for a very good Nantes side that simply aren’t playing well!

Verdict: Nantes to win at 5/6.

Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg – home win at 10/11.

Arminia Bielefeld are in good form at the moment with three wins in their last four Bundesliga 2 games. They’ve won their last two home games consecutively and have scored six goals in doing so – an average of three goals per home game. That takes Arminia Bielefeld’s home wins to seven out of ten for the season so they’re certainly reliable at home. Arminia are seeking to return to the Bundesliga following relegation last season and they’re doing a damn good job, in my opinion. Arminia’s strength is in their stout defence which has conceded just eight goals in ten home games. Arminia average scoring nearly two goals per home game too so with all things considered, Arminia have a good chance of winning this game tonight.

Visitors MSV Duisburg are also battling for promotion but they’ve struggled a lot lately and are now without a win in three games. They’ve been good on the road this season but they’ve also lost four out of their eleven away games so they’re capable of being beaten. Duisburg’s flaw on the road is conceding nearly as many as they’ve scored whereas the majority of the sides above them have much more favourable goal ratios on the road. Duisburg have lost two of their last three games and have only scored once along the way, hence the problems that they’re having. As I touched upon briefly earlier, Duisburg are conceding rather a lot and if they’re not scoring then they’re not going to take anything from their games.

This should be a close game between two good sides but I favour the in-form Arminia Bielefeld because they’ve got good momentum, they’re reliable at home, and their opponents aren’t scoring goals at the moment.

Verdict: Arminia Bielefeld to win at 10/11.

Maritimo vs Nacional – home win at evens.

The Madeira derby sees both sides entering the game in poor form. Maritimo edge the form chart over Nacional as they’ve won two out of their last five games despite losing three times. Nacional, however, are without a win in the Liga Sagres in six games so have little momentum to build upon. Maritimo were unlucky to lose against Braga in their last match as Braga’s second goal clearly went out of play initially but that’s football I guess! Maritimo are looking at least partially alive entering this game however so they’ve got the upper hand with momentum at least. Nacional have lost seven out of ten away games already in the Liga Sagres so they’re really going to struggle tonight. However, the overwhelming factor behind my call tonight is the fact that Maritimo have won this exact fixture for the last seven times that it has been played so they’ve got a definite mental edge there. Nacional have only beaten Maritimo once at either ground in their last five games so it’s fair to say that Maritimo have extra confidence tonight.
Although neither side are setting the world alight with their displays, Maritimo are at least winning every now and then; Nacional are not. Both are very good capable sides and derbies should always be approached with caution but I feel there’s enough on Maritimo to make tonight’s call a good value bet.

Verdict: Maritimo to win at evens.

Recommended bets:

Racing Genk, Rotherham United, Brescia, and Velez Sarsfield at 10/1.

HJK Helsinki, Le Havre, and Bury at 5/1.

Fortuna Dusseldorf, Strasbourg, and Maritimo at 6/1.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Chacarita Juniors vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 1-2
Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente (7) 1-0

Austrian Bundesliga:

Wiener Neustadt vs Rapid Vienna (5) 2-2

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Racing Genk vs Lokeren (8) 2-0

English League Two:

Bury vs Shrewsbury Town (7)
Rotherham United vs Torquay United (8)

Finnish Liiga Cup:

HJK Helsinki vs MyPa Anjalankoski (9) -1.75 handicap
VPS Vaasa vs Tampere United (6) 1-1

French Ligue 2:

Sedan-Ardennes vs Angers SCO (6)
Nantes vs Bastia (6)
AC Ajaccio vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (7) under 2.5 goals
Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot (7)
Le Havre vs Istres (8)
Chateauroux vs Vannes OC (6)
Dijon FCO vs Metz (5)
Laval vs Nimes (6)
Arles vs Tours (7)

German Bundesliga:

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (6) 2-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg (7) over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Rot-Weiss Ahlen (9)
Union Berlin vs Koblenz (5)

Italian Serie B:

Brescia vs Ascoli (7)

Dutch Eredivisie:

Roca JC Kerkrade vs Heracles Almelo (6) 0-0

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Excelsior (5)
Veendam vs Dordrecht ’90 (6)
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap (6)
Eindhoven vs Zwolle (5)
Volendam vs MVV Maastricht (6)
Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen (6)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar (7)
Helmond Sport vs RBC Roosendaal (6)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Oss (7)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Maritimo vs Nacional (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game

Romanian Liga:

Otelul Galati vs International (6) 1-0

Singaporean S-League:

Tampines Rovers vs Armed Forces (5) 1-1

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Elche vs Levante (6)

Welsh Premier League:

Airbus vs Prestatyn Town (7) 0-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!v