Before I begin today’s update, I have to apologise for my idiocy yesterday with the link to the Boxing blog where I cleverly added http:// twice! I suspect many of you were able to find it anyway but for those who didn’t – here it is!

Today’s featured game is the English League One encounter between Brighton & Hove Albion and Norwich City. Brighton have been playing better than usual of late and thus have been harder to beat. Visitors Norwich were finally toppled from their excellent run last match on a tough trip to Millwall but have still been outstanding lately and currently deservedly top the table.

Hosts Brighton have had a poor season that is gradually being patched up by Gus Poyet but Brighton are still lingering just outside of the drop zone. The most predominant reasoning for their location is that they’re one of the worst home sides in League One with nine defeats in fourteen games, winning just twice. Brighton have scored over twice as many goals away from home as they have at home this season which is both testament to their potent threat on the road and their atrocious performances at home. They average conceding over 1.5 goals per home game. Brighton haven’t won any of their last three home games which is largely because they’ve not scored in any of those games. They’ve played some difficult games, don’t get me wrong, but if you don’t score goals then you don’t win games and Brighton aren’t scoring goals at the moment.

Norwich City, however, are scoring goals. They average scoring over two goals per game in their last nine games, of which they’ve won eight and lost just once. Despite their recent defeat at Millwall, Norwich had been good on the road with three consecutive on the road prior to that defeat, including a particularly impressive 5-0 win at Colchester United. Norwich have now won seven out of fifteen away games in League One this season and average scoring nearly two goals per game overall on the road.

Ultimately, it takes a side that scores goals to beat Norwich and Brighton are not a side scoring goals currently. Brighton are grinding out some results but should really be outclassed by a talented Norwich that still have a good level of momentum so the odds on the away win look good value to me.

Verdict: Norwich City to win at 10/11.

Saturday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Banfield vs Lanus – home win at evens.

Hosts Banfield enter this game on the back of a morale-boosting win against Mexicans Morelia in the Copa Libertadores. Banfield needed that boost after a very disappointing defeat at Chacarita Juniors in the Clausura. Banfield may have lost some players during in the break but they’ve still got a decent side so it was refreshing to see them bouncing back so early. Banfield have struggled to score goals of late so they’ll be pleased to be facing a Lanus side that have already conceded eleven goals in their opening three Clausura games, which is an average of nearly four goals per game. Banfield have a poor head-to-head record with Lanus when playing at home but they have the opportune moment to amend that statistic tonight.

Visitors Lanus appear to have abandoned defending in favour of attacking since the Apertura. This tends to work well with the proviso that you score more than you concede, a fact that Lanus have yet to grasp. Lanus didn’t lose a single away game in the Clausura but have already had that record shattered by Boca Juniors by losing 3-1 at the giants in their opening away game. Lanus suffered an embarassing defeat at home against Paraguayans Libertad Asuncion midweek in the Copa Libertadores by yet again having their weak defence exposed but more worryingly they failed to register a goal, which just isn’t good enough.

Both sides have weakened since the break but it seems that only Banfield out of the two sides have regained any of their quality from the Apertura. Lanus are defending too poorly to keep the goal-shy hosts out, which should play right into the hands of Banfield as they don’t concede too many themselves. Any Lanus side that concede six goals at home to Argentinos Juniors can lose at Banfield and that’s frankly what I expect to happen tonight.

Verdict: Banfield to win at evens.

Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar – home win at 5/6.

Host Perth Glory have won three out of their last four A-League games and have already won seven out of twelve home games this season, tasting defeat just once at home all season long. Only Wellington Phoenix have conceded less home goals than Perth Glory with today’s hosts having conceded just eight goals in twelve games. Perth Glory average scoring nearly two goals per game and have putting in some very impressive performances of late. Perth Glory finally lost at Sydney FC in bold fashion last match, losing 3-2. Perth Glory have scored ten goals in their last four games so their potency is high at the moment and their confidence is good too. Perth Glory are conceding more than they should at the moment so it helps that they’re scoring a lot of goals to cover that up but they have won three out of their last four home games, drawing the other game, so they are a reliable force at home.

Visitors Brisbane Roar haven’t struggled massively on the road this season but they have still lost five out of twelve away games. They’re one of the bigger goalscoring sides on the road but do tend to concede more than they score with an average of nearly two goals per away game conceded. Normally I’d probably be tempted to steer clear of this game but Brisbane Roar have struggled a lot of late with just one win in six games, losing four times along the way. Brisbane have lost two out of their last three away games and have only scored four goals in their last six games whilst conceding thirteen goals, which is an average of over two goals per away game. Bluntly, Brisbane Roar are struggling and it should have damaged their momentum and morale sufficiently for it to be evident today. 

Verdict: Perth Glory to win at 5/6.

SV Mattersburg vs Wiener Neustadt – home win at evens.

Hosts SV Mattersburg are one of the weaker sides in the Bundesliga and it tends to show. However, when they do take points, they take points at home. They’ve won five out of nine home games this season and average scoring over two goals per game at home. They concede more goals than they should which explains why they’re one of the lower-placed sides in the Bundesliga currently but they’ve got the ability to overcome sides weaker than they are and although there’s only a few sides that can claim to be weaker than SV Mattersburg, Wiener Neustadt are one of those sides.

Wiener Neustadt have done well following promotion from Liga 1 last season but have largely claimed their points at home with six wins in eleven home games. However, their away form is that of a newly-promoted side that is out of their depth with six defeats in eight away games, winning just once along the way. They score one goal per away game on average but concede 2.5 goals per away game so it’s easy to see why they lose to many away games. Wiener Neustadt do try to play football so I respect them but statistics are statistics and Wiener Neustadt simply don’t perform away from home.

Although we’ve had a lengthy winter break in the Bundesliga, I still feel confident that SV Mattersburg will continue their lengthy battle against relegation by taking what is a very possible three points at home to Wiener Neustadt today.

Verdict: SV Mattersburg to win at evens.

Coventry City vs Queens Park Rangers – home win at 11/10.

I’m not going to lie to you here – I really don’t rate Coventry City. They’re a hard-working side and have at least earned my respect from that but they’re simply not a very good side. However, that said, they’re unbeaten in four games so their momentum is good. A win last match at home to high-flying Nottingham Forest will have boosted morale a lot and it’s something they need at this stage of the season to try and propel themselves away from the drop zone. Only three sides have won at Coventry in fifteen Championship games so the hosts know how to take point at home. However, just six wins in those fifteen games indicates that Coventry don’t score as many goals as they need to. Nonetheless, they’ve played well lately so I see no reason to doubt yet another committed performance from Coventry.

The above isn’t enough without a susceptible away side, however – enter Queens Park Rangers. The visitors have got more problems on and off the field than the vast majority of clubs and it’s really affecting their performances. As if wasn’t already enough that QPR had lost seven out of fifteen away games in the Championship this season already but no wins in six Championship games, a run which includes five defeats, leaves QPR perched precariously above the drop zone themselves. QPR’s problems largely stem from a lack of goals with just three goals scored in their last six Championship games whereas they’ve managed to leak an astonishing fourteen goals during that time. They’ve lost some really poor games, too – at home to Scunthorpe, away to Peterborough, at home to Ipswich – it’s just not good enough. A side that doesn’t score goals and leaks a lot of goals is asking for trouble and QPR appear to have no way of preventing their freefall at the present time.

I doubt Coventry’s goalscoring ability but QPR’s defensive ineptitude should present them with enough chances to score at least one goal which should be enough to overcome a goal-shy QPR at the moment, particularly with Coventry having put in some impressive defensive displays of late.

Verdict: Coventry City to win at 11/10.

JJK Jyvaskyla vs AC Oulu – home win at 4/5.

JJK Jyvaskyla have really leapt out of the starting blocks this season by winning two consecutive Liiga Cup games, one away to Haka Valkeakoski and an emphatic win at home to VPS Vaasa. JJK have produced two wins whilst keeping two clean sheets, which basically opens up a whole can of worms from the “stuff I didn’t think JJK would be able to do this season” section! They’re a plucky side, a gritty side, and have made some good acquisitions during the break so they look ready to cement their place in the Veikkausliiga when it starts instead of battling against relegation all season this time.

Visitors AC Oulu are new to this competition as they’ve only just been promoted to the Veikkausliiga from the Ykkonen so they’ve not competed in this competition for a few years. AC Oulu have won their only game in this competition by beating a defensively-inept Jaro Pietarsaari 3-2 in their opening Liiga Cup encounter. AC Oulu started brightly but almost threw it away as the score went from 2-0 to 2-2 before AC Oulu snatched a dramatic winner at the end. Truth be told, AC Oulu look likely to really struggle to stay in the Veikkausliiga this season because they’re simply not good enough to stay up. I suspect they’ll use the Liiga Cup to fathom how good their opponents are in comparison to them rather than hoping to get somewhere in the competition. JJK are the kind of side that AC Oulu will want to emulate to stay in the division – a battling unit with some idea of tactics – but there’s a long way to go before that occurs.

Ultimately, we’re seeing what is rapidly becoming an experience Veikkausliiga side take on a newly-promoted side that isn’t good enough to face them. I don’t expect a dominant home win for JJK because this is the first game that they’re playing as clear favourites. I expect a lengthy and scrappy encounter but ultimately JJK have more ability than AC Oulu and more momentum to make it count so frankly the odds are a gift for this game – I certainly don’t expect the bookies to be so generous when these two sides meet in the Veikkausliiga in a few months time!

Verdict: JJK Jyvaskyla to win at 4/5.

VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio – home win at evens.

Neither of these two sides have been particularly active during the break so I’m not expecting mass changes. However, VPS have experienced a very sudden drop in confidence after a 3-0 humiliation at JJK Jyvaskyla brought them crashing back down to reality after a relatively good Veikkausliiga campaign last season. This result was their wake up call and it’s now time to make their quality show. VPS have a good record against KuPS having won both of their last two home encounters against them in the Veikkausliiga without even conceding a goal. KuPS haven’t won against VPS in any of their last five meetings in all competitions and I don’t expect that to change today either.

KuPS are one of the poorer sides in the Veikkausliiga and it often shows. They’ve not played a Liiga Cup game yet so it’ll be interesting to see how they approach it this year. KuPS displayed very little interest in last year’s Liiga Cup and lost five out of their six games, crashing out in the group stages, losing all three of their away games. KuPS struggle on the road in any competition they compete in and that’s bluntly because they’re not a very good side.

Most people will be more inclined to sit on the fence for this one to see where both sides currently sit but I’m going to call the home win. VPS aren’t great but they should be too good for KuPS today irrespective of their opening Liiga Cup game so the odds should be good value although I’d recommend keeping punts low for obvious reasons.

Verdict: VPS Vaasa to win at evens.

PAS Giannina vs PAOK Salonika – away win at 10/11. 

Hosts PAS Giannina have struggled in the Super League following promotion from the B Ethniki last season and it’s going to be a close shave as to whether they’ll avoid the dreaded drop or not this season. They’ve lost three out of their last five Super League games so their momentum has taken a bit of a knock and their placing just outside of the relegation zone won’t sit too well on their minds currently. PAS Giannina have played well at home, however, and have only been beaten twice there in ten home games. PAS Giannina don’t score many goals at home as you’d expect but they don’t concede many goals either, making this a tough away game for PAOK Salonika. That said, PAS Giannina have only won once in their last three home games in the Super League with a rare home defeat being inflicted by a poor-travelling Aris Salonika of all sides, showing that even PAS Giannina can be caught out by a side that works as hard as they do.

PAOK Salonika are currently what I would call the third best side in Greece. I rate them above AEK Athens at the moment and Panionios aren’t playing well enough to compete with them for that title. PAOK have won four out of their last five Super League games and are unbeaten in their last eleven Super League games despite having travelled to the likes of Olympiakos Piraeus during that run. PAOK have only lost two away games in the Super League all season and are one of the lowest conceding sides on the road in the division. They’ve won four out of their eleven away games, which isn’t enough to put them at the top with the likes of Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos just yet, but it’s good enough to keep the two giants on their toes. PAOK Salonika are a very difficult side to play against and have proven this by winning three out of their last four away games in the Super League without conceding a goal. PAOK’s strength is in defence and that should be enough to give them a good chance of success against a relatively goal-shy PAS Giannina.

Interestingly enough, PAS Giannina beat PAOK Salonika here 4-0  a couple of games ago in the Greek Cup but I expect this game to mean more to the visitors and to see a much more committed performance as a result. Ultimately, PAOK should have too much for PAS Giannina today and the odds on this occurring represent good value in my opinion.

Verdict: PAOK Salonika to win at 10/11.

Ascoli vs Vicenza – home win at evens.

Hosts Ascoli are a strangely capable side but tend to disappoint when it comes to reliability. However, in recent times, Ascoli have been on fire with five wins in their past six Serie B games, a run which has seen them climb to eleventh in the table. Ascoli have notched up fifteen goals in their six five games, an average of nearly three goals scored per game, so “on fire” is something of an understatement when describing their recent displays. Ascoli have won their last three games consecutively without conceding a goal so momentum is very high as they enter today’s game with Vicenza.

Visitors Vicenza are the draw specialists in the division (albeit one draw behind Mantova!) with ten draws in twenty-four games. They’re a side that can be hard to break down but are even harder to see score a goal as they don’t seem to enjoy winning as often as other sides do! Vicenza have lost three out of their last five Serie B games so momentum is somewhat dry despite a win last match. Vicenza have lost their last three away games consecutively which takes their tally to six defeats in eleven away games in Serie B, leaving them looking somewhat suspect ahead of their trip to Ascoli today.

There’s not a great deal of quality difference between these two sides but there’s a big gulf in terms of momentum and I think the odds represent some good value with this in mind.

Verdict: Ascoli to win at evens.

Accmuluator fodder:

Austria Vienna, AEL Limassol, Brentford, Shrewsbury Town, Chelsea, LOSC Lille, Montpellier HSC, Brest, AEK Athens, AS Roma, Sassuolo, Brescia, Guadalajara, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, SL Benfica, Porto, Valencia, Real Madrid.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Banfield vs Lanus (8) 2-1
Huracan vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (5) 1-0
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Racing Club Avellaneda (6) 1-1

Australian A-League:

Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar (7) 1-0
North Queensland Fury vs Gold Coast United (6) 1-1

Austrian Bundesliga:

SV Ried vs Salzburg (5) 1-1
SV Mattersburg vs Wiener Neustadt (6) over 2.5 goals
Austria Vienna vs SV Kapfenberg (9) 3-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Charleroi vs Anderlecht (7) 1-2
Mechelen vs Racing Genk (5) 1-1
Germinal Beerschot vs Zulte-Waregem (6) 1-2
Cercle Brugge vs Lokeren (8) 2-0
Roeselare vs Kortrijk (5) 0-0

Belgian Tweede Klasse:

Brussels vs Mons (6)
Beveren vs Dender (7)
Ronse vs Antwerp (6)
Turnhout vs Eupen (6)
Liege vs Standaard Wetteren (4)
Tournai vs Lierse SK (6)

Colombian Primera A:

Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportivo Cali (5) 1-0
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (6) 2-1

Cypriot Division 1:

Nea Salamis vs Aris Limassol (6) 0-0
Doxa vs Apollon Limassol (5) 0-1
AEL Limassol vs Ermis (9) 2-0
A.E.Paphos vs APOP/Kinyras (6) 1-1

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Barcelona Guayaquil vs Macara Ambato (7) 2-1

English Championship:

Swansea City vs Newcastle United (7)
Preston North End vs Blackpool (6)
Barnsley vs Plymouth Argyle (7)
Coventry City vs Queens Park Rangers (6)
Doncaster Rovers vs Nottingham Forest (6)
Leicester City vs Scunthorpe United (5)
Middlesbrough vs Peterborough United (7)
Sheffield United vs Bristol City (6)

English League One:

Brentford vs Wycombe Wanderers (8)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Norwich City (7)
Carlisle United vs Milton Keynes Dons (6)
Huddersfield Town vs Swindon Town (5)
Leyton Orient vs Leeds United (7)
Millwall vs Exeter City (8)
Oldham Athletic vs Walsall (7)
Southend United vs Tranmere Rovers (6)
Stockport County vs Colchester United (6)
Yeovil Town vs Gillingham (6)

English League Two:

Barnet vs Cheltenham Town (5)
Bradford City vs Grimsby Town (5)
Chesterfield vs Bury (6)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Bournemouth (5)
Lincoln City vs Rotherham United (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Morecambe vs Darlington (5)
Shrewsbury Town vs Hereford United (8)
Torquay United vs Port Vale (5)

English FA Cup:

Chelsea vs Cardiff City (8) 2-0
Southampton vs Portsmouth (6) 1-0
Reading vs West Bromwich Albion (6) 1-2
Derby County vs Birmingham City (4) 1-0
Manchester City vs Stoke City (6) 2-1

Finnish Liiga Cup:

JJK Jyvaskyla vs AC Oulu (7) over 2.5 goals
VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio (6) 2-1

French Ligue 1:

LOSC Lille vs Boulogne (9) -1.75 handicap
Montpellier HSC vs Grenoble Foot (9) 2-0
AS Monaco vs Olympique de Marseille (5) 2-2
Valenciennes vs OGC Nice (6) 0-0
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Paris Saint-Germain (6) 2-1
Le Mans vs Sochaux (5) 1-0
Olympique Lyonnais vs Racing Club Lens (7) 2-1

French Ligue 2:

Brest vs Chateauroux (8)
Vannes OC vs Sedan-Ardennes (6)

German Bundesliga:

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VFL Wolfsburg (8) 2-1
VFB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV (8) 2-1
VFL Bochum vs Hoffenheim (5) 1-1
Hannover 96 vs Werder Bremen (6) 1-2
Hertha BSC Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 (6) 0-0
Bayern Munich vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (8) over 2.5 goals

German Bundesliga 2:

Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus (6)
Alemannia Aachen vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (6)

Greek Super League:

Panthrakikos vs AEK Athens (8) 1-2
Xanthi vs Larissa (5) 2-1
PAS Giannina vs PAOK Salonika (7) 0-1

Greek B Ethniki:

Doxa Dramas vs Agrotikos Asteras (7)

Italian Serie A:

AS Roma vs Palermo (8) over 2.5 goals
Sampdoria vs Fiorentina (5) 0-0

Italian Serie B:

Cesena vs Crotone (6)
Padova vs Frosinone (6)
Sassuolo vs Gallipoli (9)
Reggina vs Mantova (7)
Grosseto vs Cittadella (7)
Lecce vs Modena (8)
Brescia vs Piacenza (8)
Albinoleffe vs Torino (6)
Ascoli vs Vicenza (7)

Mexican Primera Division:

Jaguares vs Queretaro (6) 1-1
Monterrey vs Tigres UANL (8) over 2.5 goals
Morelia vs Atlas (6) 1-0
Guadalajara vs Atlante (8) 2-0
San Luis vs Indios (5) 1-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

Vitesse Arnhem vs Twente Enschede (6) 0-1
Heerenveen vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (8) over 2.5 goals
ADO Den Haag vs Willem II (5) 1-1
AZ Alkmaar vs Roda JC Kerkrade (7) 2-0

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

SL Benfica vs Belenenses (9) -1.75 handicap
Leixoes vs Porto (9) 1-3

Portuguese Liga de Honra:

Estoril vs Sporting Covilha (5)

Scottish Premier League:

Aberdeen vs Celtic (6) 1-2
Hamilton Academicals vs Motherwell (5) 0-1
Hearts vs Falkirk (7) 2-1
Kilmarnock vs St.Johnstone (6) 1-0
St.Mirren vs Dundee United (5) 1-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Sporting Gijon vs Valencia (8) 1-2
Deportivo Xerez vs Real Madrid (8) over 2.5 goals
Villarreal vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (7) 2-1

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Numancia vs Las Palmas (7)
Hercules Alicante vs Villarreal II (7)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Real Betis Balompie (6)
Albacete vs Castellon (6)
Cartagena vs Real Union Club de Irun (7)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Girona (7)

Swiss Super League:

Grasshoppers Zurich vs Aarau (6) 2-1
Young Boys Bern vs Luzern (7) over 3.5 goals

Swiss Challenge League:

Wil vs Vaduz (6)

Turkish Super Lig:

Diyarbakirspor vs Sivasspor (6) 1-1
Gaziantepspor vs Besiktas JK (6) 0-1

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Cerro Largo vs Fenix (6) 1-0
Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerrito (8) 2-1
Tacuarembo vs Penarol (6) 0-1
Defensor Sporting vs Central Espanol (7) 2-0

Welsh Premier League:

Caersws vs Neath Athletic (8) 0-2
Prestatyn Town vs Carmarthen Town (6) 1-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!