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Today’s secondary featured game is the Liga game between Dinamo Bucharest and CFR Cluj in Romania. Hosts Dinamo are battling for European football next season whereas CFR Cluj surprisingly aren’t as they’ve sank into mid-table mediocrity.
Dinamo Bucharest are the leading goalscoring side in Romania this season by some distance, which speaks volumes about how bad their defence is when you consider that they’re fifth in the Liga table. Despite averaging scoring over two goals per home game, Dinamo have only won eight out of fifteen home games this season, hence their predicament. However, with the season drawing to a close, they need to pick up points rapidly or face the unthinkable – a season without European football. Additionally, it’s Steaua Bucharest that they’re currently vying with for that UEFA Europa League place so there’s even further incentive for the hosts to do the business today. Dinamo were a bit unlucky to lose at Pandurii last match as they were the better side, had a perfectly good goal chalked off, and lost the game despite equalising in the last minute due to a momentary lapse in concentration. The fact is that they’re still very strong in attack with Torje, Alexe, and Munteanu all causing problems and the likes of old hound Danciulescu and experienced Ganea to put the ball in the net. Dinamo have won three out of their last four games in all competitions so they still bring at least some momentum into this game. Let’s face it – they’ve done little more than score a lot of goals at home since returning from the winter break despite the departures of important players ala Cristea, for example. They’ve won four out of their five home games since returning from the winter break whilst scoring twelve times along the way so I think it’s fair to say that CFR Cluj have an uphill task ahead of them today.
You have to question CFR Cluj’s motivation ahead of this game, really. They’re mid-table and they’ve no chance of going down a division or playing European football next season so I don’t see why CFR Cluj would produce one of their rare good displays and get a result here. Mind you, CFR Cluj have lost their last two league visits here and given the sorry state that the club is currently in, you have to expect it to be three consecutive Liga defeats in Bucharest for CFR Cluj. They lost far too many good attacking players to be a force this season with Culio joining Galatasaray, Sforzini joining Udinese, Kone joining Valerenga Oslo, Costa joining Universidad Catolica, and Traore joining Kuban’ Krasnodar. They basically pin their hopes on ex-Steaua hitman Kapetanos – who is still out injured – and their two best midfielders in ex-Internazionale playmaker Sixto Peralta and skilful Ivorian winger Kone. De Zerbi and Bastos contribute too, to be fair, but De Zerbi is absent today anyway. CFR Cluj just look morose and lacking in potency most of the time although it was somewhat bizarre and amusing to see their form pick up lately with back-to-back wins, the former of which was against high-flying Vaslui. However, they were brought back down to earth with a bang following a 0-1 defeat at home against high-flying Otelul Galati and I expect normal service to resume today – boring football, little adventure, little goal threat.
Dinamo’s defence is bad enough to concede here but their attack is more than good enough to score at least once here too. The remnants of Cartu’s work on CFR Cluj’s defence can still be seen as few sides stick a lot of goals past CFR Cluj, if indeed any, but the visitors are still vulnerable due to a lack of a consistent goal threat. I therefore have to consider odds of evens on the home win good value today.
Team news – Dinamo Bucharest miss Dolha and Kone whereas CFR Cluj miss Edimar, De Zerbi, and Kapetanos.
Verdict: Dinamo Bucharest to win at evens.
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Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Austria Lustenau vs St.Polten – under 2.5 goals at evens.
This tip hinges on two focal points; St.Polten being poor away from home and also because Austria Lustenau were in action just three days ago at SV Kapfenberg in the OFB Stiegl Cup where they amazingly won 1-2, continuing their run following an emphatic 0-4 victory at Austria Vienna in the round prior to that. It’s clear to see that the cup is Austria Lustenau’s priority at the moment as they’ve nothing left to play for in the Liga so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them rest players today, especially as it’s their third game in eight days and they don’t have a big squad. However, St.Polten just don’t score goals at the moment. They’ve played ten games since returning from the winter break and they’ve failed to score more than one goal in any all of those games. In fact, they’ve bagged just twice in their last four games, which isn’t good enough, despite them actually going unbeaten in that four-game spell. Five out of their last six games have gone under 2.5 goals, as have six out of the last eight meetings between these two sides. Therefore, with the above in mind, I have to take under 2.5 goals at generous odds of evens.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
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Dinamo Zagreb vs Inter Zapresic – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
This is a risky bet as Dinamo Zagreb have already won the Prva Liga but there is method to the madness.
Dinamo Zagreb demonstrated with a 0-2 win at Sibenik last match that they’re quite prepared to play as efficiently as ever for the remainder of the season whether they need to or not so I’ll give them the same respect as I would have done if they needed the points. Additionally, Inter Zapresic can’t afford to sit back and defend here if they intend on snatching a UEFA Europa League place – they have to attack and that leaves gaps in their defence, which are often exploited, something which Dinamo are very good at. Alternatively, Inter Zapresic could be very demoralised as the defeat against Split last match all but ended their hopes of UEFA Europa League football and we may now finally see the fatigue that has to be in their team but isn’t yet showing. They’ve worked so hard lately with such a thin squad that it must have taken its toll and I expect to see it today, one way or another.
Dinamo have won ten out of thirteen Prva Liga home games this season and although they’re not big on handicaps, I think Zapresic will contribute to the handicap win one way or another. Inter have been handicapped during three out of their last five visits to face Dinamo, losing all five games, and with the above in mind, the handicap price looks generous here although do be careful as Dinamo don’t need to win the game!
Verdict: Dinamo Zagreb to win with a -1.5 goal handicap at 6/5.
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Landskrona BoIS vs Assyriska Sodertalje – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
As it was suggested pre-season, Lanskrona have the firepower to get out of the Superettan and back where they belong – the Allsvenskan – but they lack the defensive stability to be relied upon. Ralani, Olsson, Karlsson – they’re all good attackers. However, their defence is both thin and vulnerable, which is a bad combination for any position but especially defence! It’s no surprise whatsoever that three out of Landskrona’s four Superettan games thus far have gone over 2.5 goals with the above in mind. Indeed, my only surprise was that it’s not four out of four as the game with Varnamo really should have gone over 2.5 goals but unfortunately Landskrona were wasteful on the day. Marcuz Lantz may have steadied Henrik Larsson’s midfield but there’s still a long way to go if Landskrona intend to actually be promoted rather than just talk about being promoted!
If they are serious then this is the type of game that they need to start winning. Assyriska Sodertalje are living up to their pre-season tag of being one of the favourites to be promoted this season with a string of good displays which has resulted in lethal twosome Marklund and Kusi-Asare becoming very hard to handle in their budding partnership. Subsequently, Assyriska have found the back of the net on several occasions and two out of their last three Superettan games have gone over 2.5 goals as they continue their attractive attacking football and I don’t see why that would change today against a vulnerable Landskrona defence. You’d think Assyriska would miss the departed Haddad more than they are but Kusi-Asare has stepped into his boots well and the experienced hitman is doing a good job, in my view.
All in all, we have two goalscoring sides that can both be vulnerable at the back here. Assyriska inexplicably shipped two goals at a poor Degerfors side last match in a 2-3 win and Landskrona had a very similar experience at newly-promoted Osters. Given that both sides really should attack each other here and that the last six head-to-head meetings have all easily gone over 2.5 goals, I have to take over 2.5 goals at 4/5 here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
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Chiasso vs Yverdon Sport - lay Chiasso at evens.
I simply cannot believe that the bookies are still pricing Chiasso at such short odds! It doesn’t make sense!
Chiasso are new to the division and although they impressed at the start of their campaign, they’re doing anything but impress now. I think that’s fair enough, really – they’ve worked themselves into the ground to avoid relegation and weren’t far away from promotion, let alone clearing the drop zone! They deserve to be comended, if anything! However, their squad is very thin on the ground and they’re naturally shattered, hence their barren run of late. Not only that but it’s worth noting that only six Challenge League teams have won less home games than Chiasso and all six of them are in the bottom seven of the table, which goes some way into proving that Chiasso aren’t naturally good goalscorers – they’re just like a dog with a bone when they have a lead, is all! The problem with Chiasso is when they get tired, they concede goals, and when they concede goals, they lose games as they don’t have much firepower. They’ve won just four times in twelve games since returning from the winter break and haven’t won any of their last five, losing four times along the way. They’ve lost four out of their last five home games this season over their last four games consecutively, scoring just twice along the way, which tells a story by itself. Yes, Chiasso have faced some good sides along the way but they’ve looked tired and lacking in innovation, hence their predicament.
Yverdon Sport are bottom of the Challenge League because they’re poor defensively, not because they’re the worst side in the division. Admittedly, Yverdon Sport played like the worst side in the division earlier this season but have come back looking much fresher over their past five games. I don’t know what has inspired the sudden turnaround but they’ve scored nearly 50% of their goals for the season over their past five games, which is a lot, really! They’ve won twice, drawn once, and lost twice along the way but always causing problems for their opponents, importantly. They’ve only lost at league leaders Lugano in their last three away games, winning 2-4 at Delemont and 1-2 at Winterthur either side of the result in southern Switzerland and those wins have done them the power of good; there’s light at the end of the tunnel now. They’ve still got a real mountain to climb to try and beat the drop with just five games remaining and realistically needing to win all of those games but with the current belief in their squad and their newly-discovered potency, I don’t see why they can’t cause an upset here.
In my view, Chiasso are well-placed to lose a game like this whereas Yverdon Sport are well-placed to steal an unexpected result. I was tempted to take the outright win at very long odds but I’ve opted for the “safer” bet here as there’s still value in it. Therefore, my call is to lay Chiasso at evens.
Team news - Yverdon Sport miss Lalomborgo.
Verdict: Lay Chiasso at evens.
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Accumulator fodder:
Dinamo Zagreb.
Recommended bets:
Dinamo Bucharest and Dinamo Zagreb at under 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Newells Old Boys vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (4) 1-2
Austrian Liga 1:
Austria Lustenau vs St.Polten (5)
Admira Wacker vs Gratkorn (6)
Grodig vs WAC/St.Andra (5)
First Vienna vs SCR Altach (6) over 2.5 goals
Hartberg vs Lustenau (5) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Anderlecht (6) 2-1
Chilean Primera Division:
La Serena vs Cobresal (6) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Dinamo Zagreb vs Inter Zapresic (8) 2-0
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Hajduk Split (3) 1-1
Varteks Varazdin vs Osijek (5) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs Olympiakos Nicosia (7) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sparta Prague vs Slovan Liberec (7) 1-0
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK vs Lyngby (6) 2-1
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs Vejle (6)
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS Kuopio vs Inter Turku (4) 2-1
FC Honka Espoo vs JJK Jyvaskyla (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Jaro Pietarsaari (6) 1-1
Haka Valkeakoski vs VPS Vaasa (5) 0-1
TPS Turku vs HJK Helsinki (6) 0-1
French Ligue 2:
Angers SCO vs Vannes OC (5)
Clermont Foot vs Nantes (6)
Dijon FCO vs Chateauroux (7) over 2.5 goals
Grenoble Foot vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6)
Istres vs Stade Lavallois (5)
Le Havre vs Troyes (7)
Le Mans vs Tours (6)
Nimes vs Reims (5)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Metz (6) under 2.5 goals
Boulogne vs AC Ajaccio (5)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kecskemeti TE vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 1-1
Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest (7) 2-0
Italian Serie B:
Pescara vs Livorno (7)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Fortuna Sittard vs RKC Waalwijk (7) over 2.5 goals
Sparta Rotterdam vs MVV Maastricht (6)
Emmen vs Eindhoven (5)
Helmond Sport vs Telstar (6)
RBC Roosendaal vs Dordrecht ’90 (5) both sides to score
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Zwolle (5) over 2.5 goals
Volendam vs Veendam (6)
Den Bosch vs Almere City (4)
Go Ahead Eagles vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (7)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom (6) 1-1
Peruvian Primera Division:
Universitario Lima vs Cienciano (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Ruch Chorzow vs Zaglebie Lubin (5) 1-1
Legia Warsaw vs Korona Kielce (4) 1-2
Polish Liga 1:
Piast Gliwice vs Bogdanka Leczna (6)
LKS Lodz vs Kolejarz Stroze (6) under 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga:
Dinamo Bucharest vs CFR Cluj (7) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Gombak United (7) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Elche vs Alcorcon (7)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orebro vs Kalmar (6) 0-0
Swedish Superettan:
Landskrona BoIS vs Assyriska Sodertalje (5)
Swiss Challenge League:
SC Kriens vs Delemont (7) over 2.5 goals
Chiasso vs Yverdon Sport (5)
Turkish Super Lig:
Eskisehirspor vs Kayserispor (6) 1-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (5) 2-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!