VFL Wolfsburg vs Rubin Kazan
Again - not going near the Europa League where I can help it tonight. I quite fancy Juventus to steal a win at Fulham even though they don't need to and Standard to overcome Panathinaikos even though they don't have to but there's not enough to substantiate it in my book.
Today's featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between VFL Wolfsburg and Rubin Kazan. Yep, it's the exact same one as I predicted last week although hopefully more accurate this time! Wolfsburg lead the tie on away goals following a 1-1 draw in Russia and should be able to finish off the Russian champions tonight.
Wolfsburg have been in inspired form since appointing a new manager and appear dead set on making up on all the goals that they've missed out during a disappointing campaign. Wolfsburg have now notched up fourteen goals in their last five games in all competitions - an average of nearly three per game - whilst winning four times and drawing once. Wolfsburg flattened Spain's Villarreal 4-1 in their last UEFA Europa League home game to emphasise just what they can do on their day. Wolfsburg have played well in all of their games of late and bring great momentum into this game as a result. I was highly impressed to see them draw in Russia, which is a tough away game for any side, so I think they'll be able to use their momentum to finish off the Russian champions tonight.
Rubin Kazan are sound tactically but lack in goals, something they're going to need tonight. Rubin will cause Wolfsburg problems but I can't see them having the firepower to do significant damage in Germany tonight. Aside from their shock win at the Nou Camp against Barcelona, Rubin Kazan have disappointed on the road with emphatic defeats against Internazionale and Dynamo Kiev in the UEFA Champions League before drawing 0-0 in Israel with Hapoel Tel-Aviv. It's well-known that Russian sides don't travel well and this Russian side hinges their success upon their tactical supremacy, something they may be forced to abandon tonight if goals aren't going their way as they have to score at least one tonight - probably more if you consider Wolfsburg's high level of potency currently!
I think the bookies have under-priced Wolfsburg a little although this is the Europa League so frankly nothing would surprise me really! However, Wolfsburg are scoring a lot of goals and Rubin Kazan don't score a lot of goals as a rule anyway so the Germans edge the potency front. I don't like going against Rubin Kazan unless they have to attack as that brings them out of their defensive mentality and makes them vulnerable. With the proviso that the Russians don't get an early goal in Germany tonight, Wolfsburg should win this one with some ease
Verdict: VFL Wolfsburg to win at 4/5.
Thursday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Unirea Urziceni vs Otelul Galati - lay Unirea Urziceni at 5/4.
I can't quite fathom why the bookies are giving 8/15 on a home win in this game. That's what has awakened my interest, really! Unirea Urziceni may be the current champions of Romania but they've rarely played like it this season and are yet to win a game following their return from the winter break. The four games that they've played domestically since their return have been difficult ones, that I will say, but they've lost once and drawn three times so confidence is far from peaking at the moment. They've lost at home to CFR Cluj and drawn at home to Steaua Bucharest during that time so I think it's a fair observation to make that Unirea Urziceni are not performing at their full potential and they're not scoring enough goals as a result.
Otelul Galati are traditionally a home side but have been excellent since returning from the winter break. Prior to their last match, Otelul Galati won three consecutive games without conceding a goal despite facing CFR Cluj along the way. Otelul Galati won twice at home and once on the road so their strength as increased in both aspects, something that is worth nothing. Otelul Galati are not a prolific side but they can be very good at keeping sides out. They travelled to an in-form Steaua Bucharest last match and were only beaten 1-0 so I've got good faith in them to do the job on Unirea tonight, who are not in-form at all.
Although there's obvious doubts and the underlying issue that Unirea are the better of these two sides, an Otelul side that aren't conceding goals travelling to an out-of-form Unirea tells me that this game has a decent chance of being a draw. Unirea are playing poorly enough to draw this and the value has to be in laying them as I feel that bookies have over-priced the reigning champions slightly here.
Verdict: Lay Unirea Urziceni at 5/4.
Cerro vs Internacional - away win in-play
This is the first time I've recommended a bet of this type and it might sound fairly obvious but I feel there's potentially a lot of value in this game. The bookies have put Internacional at 8/11, unfortunately, and there's no way on earth I'm backing them at those odds - they're away from home for fuck's sake! However, Cerro are not a particularly good side - they're too defensive by far. Uruguay holds little to no geographical advantage over Brazil so the two sides are level-pegging in that aspect. The game is being played at a neutral venue so there's no home advantage there either. In other words, Cerro will have to be very lucky to take anything from this game against a superior Internacional side. The result isn't in doubt in my mind - it's just when the visitors do it. With Cerro being a defensive side, I expect them to refrain from conceding an early goal. I also expect them to end the game with less than eleven men because that's what Uruguayan sides tend to enjoy doing for some inane reason. My recommendation is purely that if you can watch this game then do so because of Internacional's odds fall to 4/5 or even fall to evens (if you wait long enough) then they're definitely worth taking. I will not be touching them at 8/11 though!
Accumulator fodder:
FC Poli Timisoara, Internacional, Sao Paulo, Rapid Bucharest
Recommended bets:
FC Poli Timisoara, VFL Wolfsburg, Liverpool, and Rapid Bucharest at 5/1.
Internacional, Sao Paulo, and Independiente Medellin at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Olympique de Marseille vs SL Benfica (6) 2-1
Standard de Liege vs Panathinaikos (6) under 2.5 goals
Fulham vs Juventus (4) 0-1
Werder Bremen vs Valencia (6) over 2.5 goals
Anderlecht vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-1
VFL Wolfsburg vs Rubin Kazan (8) over 2.5 goals
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Atletico Madrid (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Liverpool vs LOSC Lille (7) under 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Cerro vs Internacional (8) 0-2
Sao Paulo vs Nacional Asuncion (9) -1.75 handicap
Independiente Medellin vs Racing Club Montevideo (7) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
FC Poli Timisoara vs Unirea Alba Iulia (8) under 2.5 goals
Politehnica Iasi vs Vaslui (5) 1-0 draw no bet
Unirea Urziceni vs Otelul Galati (5) 0-0
Rapid Bucharest vs Astra Ploiesti (9) -1.75 handicap
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Sengkang Punggol (4) 1-1
Gombak United vs Armed Forces (5) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips
Bolivar La Paz vs Estudiantes De La Plata
Today sees the return of the Meistriliiga, which is the Estonian Premier League. This will seem of mass insignificance to the vast majority of you but it's one of my favourite leagues - not due to the quality of the league but the reliability of the results. Saying that, it'll probably all go tits-up today but still - keep an eye on it for accumulator fodder and value - bookies don't monitor this league very well!
Today's featured game is the Copa Libertadores game between Bolivar La Paz and Estudiantes De La Plata. The Bolivians have already lost two Copa Libertadores games and simply aren't good enough to do any damage in this competition. Visitors Estudiantes De La Plata are in a bit of sporadic form currently but their overall ability is unquestionable so it should be an interesting game at high altitude.
Bolivar La Paz have already lost their two Copa Libertadores games this season, conceding five goals and scoring just once. They lost 2-0 at Juan Aurich, which is fairly respectable considering how bad Bolivian sides are on the road, but have also lost 3-1 at home to Alianza Lima, where Bolivar are supposed to be strongest. Home advantage is all that Bolivar have over other sides when playing in this competition but even that isn't serving them well currently due to atrocious defending. Bolivar will be happy that their domestic campaign started since their last Copa Libertadores game, giving them additional match practice, in which they won at Jorge Wilstermann. Bolivar have a very tough game tonight, however, as they host last year's Copa Libertadores runners-up.
Estudiantes De La Plata are a bit frustrating at the moment, aren't they? They've lost at home to Argentinos Juniors and away to Alianza Lima of late, two rather surprising results, and yet have annihlated Juan Aurich and San Lorenzo de Almagro already this season so what to make of them? Their ability is unquestionable; their reliability has become dubious. Estudiantes' problem of late appears to be a combination of two things - goal-shy displays and over-confidence. One thing is certain, however - they take this competition very seriously and will look to win this game for sure. The altitude is a real test for them as their last test in Peru saw them battered 4-1. However, Juan Aurich are at least a competent side - Bolivar La Paz are not. Estudiantes need a game where they can unlreash their pent-up goal rush that is building inside them, much like Lanus at Blooming Santa Cruz in Bolivia of late, so this could well be the catalyst for Estudiantes to starting playing well again.
Betting against the altitude always leaves me wary so do approach this game with caution. However, I can't ignore the fact that Estudiantes are at least five times better than Bolivar La Paz - there's such a gulf here. Estudiantes lost their only away game in the Copa Libertadores this season convincingly - they walked into the game over-confidently and underestimated their opponents. I don't envision the same mistake today against much lesser opponents, opponents that have already lost at home to an average side this season. Estudiantes are far too good for Bolivar to deal with and odds of this calibre are worth taking in my opinion.
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win at evens.
Tuesday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Jeonbuk Motors vs Kashima Antlers - away win at 29/20.
I'm basing this bet on two things because it's difficult to call the early stages of the Asian Champions League with such contrast in leagues, styles, and even geographically. My factors are simple: experience and ability.
Jeonbuk Motors are a South Korean side who enter this competition for the first time in three years and they didn't leave a lasting impression then, winning just two of their six group games, one of which was against a fellow South Korean side. They've won their opening game in this year's Asian Champions League but frankly any side that cannot beat an Indonesian side in this competition needs serious assistance due to the severe contrast in leagues. South Korean football is definitely on the up and they'll be up for this game for rivalry reasons due to the visitors being Japanese. However, the hosts are somewhat inexperienced in this competition after years of being out of it and I suspect it might show today.
Kashima Antlers are one of Japan's biggest and best clubs. They're playing in this competition for the third season in a row as a result and are looking to further their reputation as one of the better sides in it. They breezed through the group stage last season and were unlucky to be knocked out by Seoul in the following round after drawing 2-2 and going out on penalties despite playing with ten men for a good portion of the game. Kashima Antlers will no doubt have that in mind as they travel to face another South Korean side today and it may even spur them on a little. Kashima Antlers are a very good side with a lot of experience and even bring some momentum into this game after beating title rivals Urawa Red Diamonds in the J-League at weekend so the visitors do have a good chance today.
South Korean and Japanese clubs naturally have a big rivalry for obvious reasons so they usually produce good games to watch for varying reasons. However, Kashima Antlers are simply a better side than Jeonbuk Motors. Neither side will lie down for this game so I expect a lot of goals but I also expect the experience and ability of Kashima Antlers to win them the game at rather generous odds for a proven side in this tournament.
Verdict: Kashima Antlers to win at 29/20.
Notts County vs Chesterfield - home win at 4/5.
Notts County have won their last three games consecutively, including a difficult but convincing 3-0 win at Accrington Stanley. Notts County are now unbeaten in five League Two games and are well on their way to building up a superb burst of momentum. Notts County are the second-highest goalscoring side in the division so backing them always has that extra reassurance. Notts County have already won nine out of fifteen home games this season, losing just once along the way, so they're a strong side at home. Notts County have rattled in nine goals in their last three games without conceding a goal so they're absolutely on fire at the moment. They average scoring over two goals per home game and boast the best defensive home record in the division by averaging conceding a goal ever 1.5 games. Ultimately, the wealthy Notts County are looking very good for this game for various reasons and stand a good chance of taking three points tonight.
Visitors Chesterfield had their excellent run of form brought to an abrupt halt by Aldershot Town lately. They recovered well by winning at Cheltenham Town last match but their momentum was interrupted so they're not looking as menacing as they had been prior to their defeat. Chestefield's massive strength is their dominant home form with their Achilles heel being their haphazard away form. Chesterfield have already lost eight out of seventeen away games in League Two this season and are one of just two sides in the top eight of League Two to have conceded more than they've scored on the road. That kind of record isn't one to take to an in-form and potent Notts County so I think they're going to struggle tonight>
Both of these sides are very capable at either ground irrespective of Chesterfield's relatively poor away form so it'll be interesting to see what occurs. However, with the irresistable form of Notts County at the moment and the unreliable nature of Chesterfield on the road, you have to feel that there's value in backing the moneybags Notts County tonight!
Verdict: Notts County to win at 4/5.
Sillamae Kalev vs Flora Tallinn - away win at 9/5.
These odds intrigue me. Sillamae Kalev had a very good Meistriliiga campaign last season but they're not a better side than Flora Tallinn irrespective of whether they finished above them or not. Estonia is about two teams - Flora Tallinn and Levadia Tallinn. I won't deny that Flora Tallinn have weakened in ability of late but they're still the second-strongest club in Estonia so this game certainly has my attention.
It'll be interesting to see how Sillamae Kalev deal with the pressure of being expected to do well this season especially as I don't consider them to be a particularly good side - perhaps on par with the likes of Trans Narva or even Nomme Kalju. Sillamae Kalev won twelve out of eighteen home games in the Meistriliiga last season so they're certainly a force to be reckoned with. However, I don't believe in one-off glory like Sillamae Kalev until it's proven consistently. I believe that Sillamae Kalev's home record against Flora Tallinn reveals a lot more with four home games against Flora Tallinn having resulted in three convincing away wins and one fortune home win. Flora Tallinn have won seven out of ther last eight meetings with Sillamae Kalev at either ground and are a bigger and better side so it'll be interesting to see how well the bookies have looked at this game.
Flora Tallinn lost the Estonian Super Cup against Levadia Tallinn a few days ago and they won't like that but competitive match experience is competitive match experience so at least Flora Tallinn have something to bring into this game. The gap between Levadia and Flora is increasing each season with Levadia Tallinn now the unquestionable giants of this league. However, Flora very much remain the second biggest side and I can't see that changing due to just one good season for Sillamae Kalev and one below-par season for Flora Tallinn. Although I think Sillamae Kalev will give Flora Tallinn a good game today, I find it hard to overlook odds of 9/5 for the better side to win any game!
Verdict: Flora Tallinn to win at 9/5.
Bala Town vs Newtown - lay Bala Town at 10/11.
Bala Town have now lost two games consecutively so their momentum has taken a sizeable dent. They were facing two of Wales' top three sides so their defeats are very much understandable for the newly-promoted outfit. However, good runs can't last forever and Bala Town's has certainly been punctured lately so it'll be interesting to see how they react to that. The problem I have with Bala Town is that they don't score enough goals. Despite their defensively assured displays, they just don't score enough so when their luck does go against them, they're going to find it hard to pull themselves out of the mire again. That's what I'm banking on occurring tonight against Newtown so I find it hard to believe that Bala Town will win the game.
Newtown are some way down the table but this is a little misleading in some ways. They're in thirteenth place due to their shoddy defensive displays and that certainly is a concern ahead of a complicated trip to Bala Town. However, let's not gloss over the fact that Newtown are good goalscorers on the road when measured up against their actual away form with an average of approximately 1.5 goals scored per away game. Newtown are more experienced in this division than Bala Town are and that could count against the hosts tonight. Let's also not overlook the fact that Newtown have won two out of their last three away games with their only defeat being against one of the big three in Wales and yet they still managed to score twice. Newtown have notched up six goals in three away games so they're not to be underestimated tonight.
Ultimately, I don't rate a previously driven Bala Town that has suffered a couple of heavy reality checks in recent times against an experienced Newtown side that score a good amount of goals on the road and a Newtown side that are playing well away from home currently. The odds on Bala Town surprise me tonight considering they've won less than half of their home games this season so I do like the look of laying them tonight.
Verdict: Lay Bala Town at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Arsenal, Changchun Yatai, Bury, Queens Park Rangers, Nomme Kalju, Levadia Tallinn, Tampere United, Rangers, Tampines Rovers, Llanelli
Recommended bets:
Arsenal, West Bromwich Albion, Notts County, Bury, and Queens Park Rangers at 9/1.
Levadia Tallinn, Flora Tallinn, and Nomme Kalju at 6/1.
Estudiantes De La Plata, Rangers, Tampines Rovers, and Llanelli at 6/1.
Changchun Yatai, Kawasaki Frontale, Esteghlal, and Al Ittihad at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Fiorentina vs Bayern Munich (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Arsenal vs Porto (8) over 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Racing Club Montevideo vs Cerro Porteno (5) 1-1
Bolivar La Paz vs Estudiantes De La Plata (7) over 2.5 goals
Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Deportivo Cuenca vs Morelia (6) under 2.5 goals
Asian Champions League:
Chanchun Yatai vs Persipura Jayapura (9) -1.75 handicap
Melbourne Victory vs Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma (6) 1-1
Kawasaki Frontale vs Beijing Guoan (8) over 2.5 goals
Jeonbuk Motors vs Kashima Antlers (6) 1-2
Esteghlal vs Al Jazira (8) 2-0
Al Wahda vs Bunyodkor (5) 1-1
Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli (6) 1-1
Al Ittihad vs Zob Ahan (7) 2-1
English Premier league:
Sunderland vs Bolton Wanderers (7) 0-0
Portsmouth vs Birmingham City (5) 1-0
English Championship:
Peterborough United vs Sheffield United (6)
Preston North End vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Watford vs Swansea City (7)
Ipswich Town vs Cardiff City (6)
West Bromwich Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday (7) over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace vs Bristol City (6)
Queens Park Rangers vs Plymouth Argyle (8)
English League One:
Tranmere Rovers vs Leeds United (6)
Carlisle United vs Millwall (6)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town (5)
Oldham Athletic vs Leyton Orient (6)
English League Two:
Accrington Stanley vs Macclesfield Town (6)
Bury vs Darlington (8)
Crewe Alexandra vs Grimsby Town (6)
Port Vale vs Bradford City (6)
Notts County vs Chesterfield (7) over 2.5 goals
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Sillamae Kalev vs Flora Tallinn (5) 1-2
Flora Paide vs Lootus (6) 1-0
Kuressaare vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (6) 1-1
Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva (8) over 2.5 goals
Nomme Kalju vs Viljandi Tulevik (8) 2-1
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Tampere United vs JJK Jyvaskyla (8) under 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
Kilmarnock vs Rangers (8) 0-1
St.Mirren vs Motherwell (6) 1-2
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Young Lions (8) 2-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Mineros de Guayana vs Trujillanos (6) 2-1
Wales Premier League:
Llanelli vs Port Talbot Town (9) over 2.5 goals
Bala Town vs Newtown (4) 1-1
Carmarthen Town vs The New Saints (7) 0-1
Welshpool Town vs Connah's Quay Nomads (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Universitario Lima vs Libertad Asuncion
Today's featured game is the Copa Libertadores game in Peru between Universitario Lima and Paraguay's Libertad Asuncion. Universitario Lima and Libertad Asuncion have both won their two Copa Libertadores games so far but one of them most surely give way tonight in what could be a pivotal group game for both sides.
Universitario Lima have already defeated Argentina's Lanus here and have also won in Bolivia against Blooming La Paz so they've done their chances of qualification from this group a lot of good. Peru is one of the hardest places to travel in South America due to the severe altitude and tonight's game is no exception. A defeat to title rivals Juan Aurich in their last domestic game won't have done their confidence any favours but it's a tough game to tackle when your priority is the Copa Libertadores which is effectively what Universitario are focusing on and who can blame them? They've had a good five days rest since that game and will be looking forward to testing their Paraguayan hosts on a ground where no away side has won since Velez Sarsfield of Argentina in 2006. Libertad's bitter rivals Nacional Asuncion lost here last season and Universitario are unbeaten at home in their last five Copa Libertadores games. They've got a good level of experience in this competition as they're one of Peru's biggest sides and they know how to make their home advantage count as they've proven consistently in recent times.
Visitors Libertad Asuncion have been very impressive in this tournament too with a win at Lanus and a demolition of Blooming La Paz at home without even conceding a goal. Libertad are a capable side and have done very well this season but I'm not convinced due to the old geographical concern. Prior to their win at Lanus, Libertad had lost their last three away games consecutively in the Copa Libertadores (in Venezuela, Argentina, and on their last trip to Peru where they coincidentally faced tonight's hosts Universitario) so they do struggle away from home. The only reason I can offer for their shock win at Lanus was defensive frailty from the hosts and a rigid defensive display from Libertad, which worked, to their credit. They're facing a very different opponent tonight, however, one with genuine home advantage and a good level of ability all over the field as well as experience in this competition so I expect Libertad to struggle tonight.
Although this should be a close game between two good and in-form sides, Universitario's home advantage should give them a real edge here. They beat Libertad here last season in the same competition and have already been proven to being a force at home in this year's competition. Although this game could be a close one, I have to call the home win from a value-perspective, particularly considering Libertad's atypical away form in this competition.
Verdict: Universitario Lima to win at 11/10.
Thursday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fulham - home win with -1.75 handicap at 6/4.
Reigning champions Shakhtar Donetsk disappointed in the first leg of this tie against Fulham and succumbed to a 2-1 defeat. I attribute this to Shakhtar'd ineffectual football in the final third due to a lack of competitive match experience and also a scintillating display from Fulham, which was largely due to the tactical prowess of Roy Hogdson. Note that both Fulham goals came through exposing the centre of Shakhtar's defence - Hodgson knows that Shakhtar haven't replaced Chygrynskyi since he was sold to Barcelona and it worked wonders.
However, Shakhtar are now back on familiar turf. Their newly-built stadium has favoured their football style drastically with Shakhtar having won every domestic game at home this season whilst averaging scoring over three goals per home game whilst conceding just four times. On the continent, Shakhtar have won twice at home and drawn once with their only draw being a meaningless game at home to Belgium's Club Brugge at the end of their group stages when they'd already qualified. Prior to that, Shakhtar had scored eight goals in two home games and conceded just once so their potency and ability is certainly not in question. Ukraine is a hard enough place to travel to without the pitch aiding Shakhtar's expansive and free-flowing football so a weary Fulham look in for a rough ride tonight.
Fulham haven't convinced on the road in Europe this season. They've lost at lowly Amkar Perm in Russia without scoring, they were fortunate to secure a draw at CSKA Sofia in Bulgaria, they won a tight game in Switzerland at Basel and claimed their only respectable display in Europe in an extremely unlucky defeat at AS Roma. I don't need to explain about the gulf between Italian and English sides again as I'm sure you all know my thoughts on that matter so that's how I'm accounting for Fulham's good display. I'm more concerned by their consistent struggles on the road, particularly in Eastern Europe, and I feel they could be exposed tonight. Fulham have now played in three games in their last ten days and although they've performed well in those three games, their large but limited (quality-wise) squad is beginning to look a little stretched, something proven against Birmingham City. Zamora is in the form of his career and could be a potent threat but frankly his inconsistency over the years overshadows his present ability so relying on him to turn up is a little haphazard. Without him, Fulham struggle in attack so if Shakhtar nullify him then we should see a convincing home performance.
Although I'm a big fan of Roy Hodgson and Fulham's work-ethic in general, I feel the trip tonight may be a bridge too far. Donetsk has an approximate weather forecast of -4 so this could be a very hard trip indeed for Fulham. In fact, no, scrap that - this will be a very difficult trip for Fulham irrespective of what they do or don't do tonight. This is their toughest game too far and I think they're going to be rudely awakened by a "total football" Shakhtar Donetsk side that threatened to embarass them at Craven Cottage with only a rusty display hampering their result.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 6/4.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Everton - away win at 15/8.
The odds for this game surprise me a little. Sporting are notoriously shy when it comes to scoring goals nowadays and that hasn't changed in recent times. Indeed, it took a penalty for them to score at Everton in the first leg of this tie because they're frankly impotent from open play. They've not scored in either of their two games on either side of their defeat at Everton despite facing two sides that they are better than - Pacos de Ferreira and Olhanense respectively - so I don't see how they're going to overcome an in-form Everton. Sporting are without a win in seven games in all competitions and have lost their last two home games consecutively. I just cannot see for the life of me how Sporting are going to penetrate this resolute Everton defence, to be frank.
Visitors Everton have proven in recent times just how good they can be. Although they're missing central midfielders Cahill and Fellaini through injury (who are big losses), Everton have still managed to comfortably overcome Manchester United and Chelsea. Everton have won five out of their last six games in all competitions with their only blip being the derby against Liverpool. Everton are scoring goals for fun at the moment and I can't see that changing for the trip to Lisbon tonight. Everton were crushed in Lisbon 5-0 by a rampant SL Benfica in the group stages of this competition but that was a weakened and demoralised Everton side that were heavily beaten. This Everton is far more resilient and organised so I find it hard to believe they'll concede tonight but eight goals scored in their last four wins says that they're amongst the goals at the moment so the possibility of them taking the win away from this ground against an impotent Sporting Clube de Lisboa surely has to be taken seriously.
Verdict: Everton to win at 15/8.
Blooming Santa Cruz vs Lanus - away win at 11/10.
This should be a really interesting game but for all the wrong reasons. Blooming Santa Cruz are an atrocious outfit because of the league they're from and yet Lanus are playing some poor football at the moment and are conceding goals for fun so we should see a feast of goals here tonight.
Blooming don't have the same advantage of most Bolivian sides with their altitude advantage being restricted due to their low-lying home ground. That showed in their 2-1 defeat at home by Peru's Universitario Lima and the result could in truth have been a lot worse for the hosts. They followed up their home defeat with a 4-0 defeat in Paraguay at Libertad Asuncion so it's hard to see how they're going to produce something special to overcome opponents that are at least twice as good as they are. Blooming's domestic campaign isn't underway yet so their morale has taken a beating and they're conceding far too many goals to consider winning this game, in my opinion, and should lose this game somewhat comfortably.
Lanus regained a little momentum last match when they drew at Newell's Old Boys in the Primera Division. Whereas it's a long way from "result of the year", Lanus needed to stop the freefall and they've done so against a side that are good at home in their 1-1 draw. We all know that Lanus are a capable side but their defensive displays lately have been horrific, not to mention their lack of goals scored. It's frankly better to overlook their domestic form in favour of their actual ability level or else you may be put off betting on what should be bargain odds! I'm choosing to look at Lanus gaining a respectable draw at Newell's in their last game whilst only conceding once but also managing to score. This result may not seem like much on the outside but mentally I feel it'll have done a lot for Lanus to give them a bit of confidence back. To be blunt, that's really all they should need against a poor Blooming side that don't have the ability to be on the same field as their opponents tonight.
Blooming Santa Cruz have now lost every Copa Librtadores game that they've ever featured in. That's only four games, admittedly, but it's a fact that they're not unaware of so it may play a part in their performance mentally. Blooming know they're not as good as Lanus so it'll be interesting to see how they approach this game, particularly as Lanus are weak defensively currently. Do Blooming go all out to attack their defensively-inept opponents? Or do they hold back and try and gain a fairly respectable draw? I can't see the Bolivians having the tactical ability to keep Lanus out so I suspect they'll attack the Argentinians, which could be catastrophic as Lanus will expose them on the counter-attack. Either way, I expect the better side here (Lanus) to finally show their ability at the right end of the field against opponents that aren't good enough to be in the division below them domestically although I would urge caution given Lanus' goal-shy displays on the continent so far this season.
Verdict: Lanus to win at 11/10.
Recommended bets:
Juventus, Roma, Olympique de Marseille, and Shakhtar Donetsk at 5/1.
Universitario Lima and Lanus at 5/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Galatasaray vs Atletico Madrid (5) 2-2
Anderlecht vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) 1-1
Olympique de Marseille vs FC Copenhagen (8) 2-1
AS Roma vs Panathinaikos (8) 2-1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fulham (8) -1.75 handicap
Unirea Urziceni vs Liverpool (7) 0-1
PSV Eindhoven vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-0
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Rubin Kazan (6) 1-2
Juventus vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (8) over 2.5 goals
Valencia vs Club Brugge (7) over 2.5 goals
VFL Wolfsburg vs Villarreal (6) 1-1
Salzburg vs Standard de Liege (6) over 2.5 goals
Werder Bremen vs Twente Enschede (6) 2-1
Fenerbahce vs LOSC Lille (6) 1-1
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Everton (6) 0-1
Copa Libertadores:
Blooming Santa Cruz vs Lanus (6) over 2.5 goals
Once Caldas Manizales vs Sao Paulo (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Universitario Lima vs Libertad Asuncion (7) over 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varteks Varazdin (6) 1-0
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