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Can’t say I like anything today, guys, sorry! Good luck if you take anything!
Injury & suspension list, probable line-ups, players info and full team stats can be found at LeagueSpy.com.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games! Copa Libertadores:
Flamengo vs Real Potosi (9) -1.5 handicap Once Caldas Manizales vs Internacional (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game Caracas vs Penarol (5) 1-1 Tigres UANL vs Union Espanola (6) 1-1
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter in Colombia between Atletico Junior Barranquilla and Peruvian opponents Leon de Huanuco. Atletico Junior have already qualified for the latter stages and Leon de Huanuco are already out so approach this one with caution.
Atletico Junior have really surprised me in this tournament, in all honesty. Colombian sides are generally very hard to beat but rarely convince in front of goal and thus usually face early exits. However, Atletico Junior have been taking their chances and defending well, sacrificing their domestic campaign in favour of a good Copa Libertadores campaign. To be fair, it’s paid huge dividends with four wins from five games thus far and a bye to the next round as a result.
One thing you must be wary of when betting on South American football is that Colombian sides really don’t play well as favourites. If this game mattered then I’d consider the -1.5 handicap purely because Leon de Huanuco don’t play well away from their eyrie up in the clouds. I won’t touch it given that it doesn’t matter and given that Atletico Junior don’t need to win here though. Odds of 2/5 leave me cold for this one because I don’t like backing Colombian sides as favourites, as I mentioned earlier – they tend to disappoint due to not scoring enough goals. However, if the hosts are to win it then they’re going to do it without conceding given that Leon de Huanuco sold almost all of their good attacking players pre-season so why not try your hand on a home win to nil at 5/4? I can accept and even endorse that price because it becomes value to me, whether it comes in or not. 2/5 is just a massive “no go” zone for me here!
Visitors Leon de Huanuco have enough on their plate domestically with their Primera Division campaign looking to be in tatters already. This is largely due to the mini-exodus that occurred pre-season and leaves tonight’s visitors desperately short on talent, which has shown in all of their group games thus far. Indeed, Leon de Huanuco have only scored three times in five games and when we consider that all three of those were scored at high altitude in Peru, you begin to get an idea of how badly this team tends to travel. They’ve scored twice in their last five games in all competitions and have lost three out of their five Copa Libertadores games thus far so you can understand why I’m not convinced by them here.
All in all, we should really see a home win for the Colombian giants. However, odds of 2/5 just don’t appeal to me for reasons I’ve already mentioned so I’m leaning toward Atletico Junior winning this game without conceding at generous odds of 5/4 as Leon de Huanuco rarely pose a goal threat due to departed players and thus Atletico winning to nil is my call for this one.
Verdict: Atletico Junior Barranquilla to win to nil at 5/4.
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Caracas vs Velez Sarsfield – over 2.5 goals at 43/40.
A lot of sides have underestimated Caracas thus far; I wonder if Velez Sarsfield will tonight?
This game is perfectly placed to cause a shock as many would expect Velez Sarsfield to win this game but I’m not so sure. I like Velez Sarsfield a lot – for me, they’re the best side in Argentina. However, they’re not consistent at all at the moment and that’ll do them damage against an enthusiastic Caracas side tonight. The reversal of this fixture ended 3-0 in favour of the Argentinian hosts but the scoreline flattered Velez despite facing ten men for the majority of the game. This is a different game in a hostile Venezuelan environment and the visitors have already proven to be susceptible away from home on the continent this season so why not here tonight?
Caracas bring a great threat to their games as they score a lot of goals for a Venezuelan side and although their defence can be susceptible at times, their spirit and potency is never in doubt, hence them currently topping the group. A draw for the hosts here guarantees them qualification to the next round but much like Liga de Quito the other night – sitting back and defending is not their style at home. They’ll attack and most likely score goals, especially as Velez have to attack them or face the prospect of an early Copa Libertadores exit.
Caracas have scored in three out of their last four Copa Libertadores games and should score tonight too as they believe in themselves massively. Velez have their lethal threesome of Silva, Moralez, and Martinez to trouble Caracas and I’m sure they’ll score at least once here in what can only be described as a “must win” game for the Argentinians. Therefore, I think it’s reasonable to expect goals in this game and thus my call is over 2.5 goals at 43/40.
Universitatea Craiova vs Targu Mures – away win with draw no bet at 11/8.
As well as Craiova can play sometimes, they have a tremendous problem with scoring goals and that should be even more evident than normal today with Costea absent for this encounter. Only FC Brasov, Unirea Urziceni, and opponents Targu Mures have scored less Liga goals than Craiova this season and missing their best striker is not going to help things at all. When playing at home, nobody has scored less or even as few goals as Universitatea Craiova have this season, hence them winning just twice in twelve home games. They’ve been composed at the back, as usual, but with no Ciuca or lopes at the back today, can that be maintained? I doubt it. Craiova have bagged two goals in seven consecutive games whilst shipping twelve times along the way, which is even more than normal for them. They’re demoralised, lacking in front of goal, and susceptible in defence today – it’s no wonder I don’t fancy them to do well here!
Visitors Targu Mures are not a better side than Craiova; they can just about match them if they’re playing well, which they are. In fact, they’re playing better now than they have done all season long. They’ve lost just twice since returning from the winter break and those two defeats were at giants Dinamo Bucharest and at home to league leaders Vaslui respectively so they’re more than acceptable defeats for the newly-promoted outfit. Since the home defeat against Vaslui, Targu Mures haven’t conceded for three home games, winning twice and drawing once along the way. Worryingly for their opponents, Targu Mures have started to repeat that form away from home with just one defeat in three away games, conceding in just one out of those three games. They won 0-1 at Unirea Urziceni and drew 0-0 at Gaz Metan Medias either side of their drubbing at Dinamo Bucharest so you can see what I mean here. Momentum is definitely with Targu Mures here and they look very confident and assured under ex-Romanian international Sabau so I have to give them a shot here as I think they’ll score and if they do then they can absolutely hold on to win.
Either way, I just don’t see Targu Mures losing this one. Craiova aren’t playing well enough as a whole and they’re missing some important players for this game. Targu Mures themselves miss defender Fernandes, which is a hefty blow for them but with no Costea in attack for Craiova, it’s a gap that shouldn’t be easily exploited here. Therefore, for me, the value is the away win with draw no bet cover at 11/8.
Team news – Universitatea Craiova miss Ciuca, Lopes, Ologu, and Costea whereas Targu Mures miss Zaharia and Fernandes.
Verdict: Targu Mures to win with draw no bet at 11/8.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
Spartak Moscow vs Porto (4) 0-1 PSV Eindhoven vs SL Benfica (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score Twente Enschede vs Villarreal CF (6) 2-1 Sporting Braga vs Dynamo Kiev (5) 1-1
Copa Libertadores:
Cerro Porteno vs Santos (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game Universidad Catolica vs Union Espanola (7) 2-0 Caracas vs Velez Sarsfield (3) 2-2 Oriente Petrolero vs Gremio (5) 1-1 Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Leon de Huanuco (7) 2-0
Danish Superligaen:
Lyngby vs Midtylland (6) 1-1
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Craiova vs Targu Mures (5) 0-1 Victoria Branesti vs Rapid Bucharest (4) 2-1
CFR Cluj vs Universitatea Cluj (3) 1-2
