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Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores game in Colombia between Deportes Tolima and Estudiantes De La Plata. The reversal of this fixture ended 1-0 in favour of the Argentinian giants after a tight game and I expect a similarly tight game tonight too between two evenly-matched teams.
Hosts Deportes Tolima need to win this game or they’re out of the Copa Libertadores. That’s the way things are at the moment so they have to push for a win here, irrespective of their generally slow playing style. Deportes Tolima generally aren’t a great goalscoring side but what they do bring to their respective games is a dominating possession type game which generally means that sides find it hard to score against them, the only exception of which in the current Copa Libertadores campaign was their 6-1 drubbing at in-form Cruzeiro in Brazil. Aside from that, Deportes Tolima have shipped just one goal in three games so you can see how good they are at the back. Let’s not forget that they were missing key defender Arrechea for that game in Brazil too, who is going to be playing tonight. Deportes Tolima are back on familiar turf in Ibague tonight where they’re yet to concede a goal in the current campaign, even against a goal-filled Cruzeiro team. In fact, they even beat Corinthians of Brazil 2-0 here to progress to the group stages so don’t underestimate the Colombian hosts. The altitude advantage certainly works in their favour and with an iron defence backing up their cause, they’re generally a tough nut to crack. Torres has a full team to choose from tonight, including their attacking trio of Medina, Santoya, and Caldena, who basically score their goals. Tolima have a vociferous support and altitude in a must-win game, they’re a serious contender for any away side to deal with.
Visitors Estudiantes De La Plata still aren’t the same side since Sabella departed pre-season. They’re winning games on a more regular basis since their campaign settled down a little but to say they’re the same side would be a lie. Ex-River Plate defender Berizzo has his own playing style that is vaguely similar to Sabella’s but this Estudiantes side is more workmanlike and less assured, which has cost them in games ala defeats against Cruzeiro and Godoy Cruz de Mendoza this season. The acquisition of skilful Pablo Barrientos pre-season was a good move; they needed an additional outlet of creativity and pace in the team. The burden on Veron is not as strong as it was now, which helps both Estudiantes and Veron. However, their attack still hinges upon Gaston Fernandez since Mauro Boselli’s departure and that is rapidly proving to be a problem. Ex-River Plate striker Fernandez is a good striker with plenty of pace and he works well with another good target man. I think someone like Santiago Silva at Velez Sarsfield would work well with him, for example. However, at the moment, Estudiantes don’t really have the required partner for him in attack and as a result, Estudiantes aren’t scoring as many goals as they should be. Their record indicates otherwise, don’t get me wrong – what I mean is that at times when they need to score goals, they’re finding it harder to do so because Fernandez is a very one-dimensional striker, good though he is. However, their problems increase tonight because he’s not travelled to Ibague with the team due to injury. In my eyes, that removes the threat of Estudiantes in front of goal for this game barring some immense set piece as Deportes Tolima are very solid at the back. A draw here would see Estudiantes go through to the latter stages so will they go for the win without their best striker? I’d be surprised to see it. They also suffered another blow with experienced midfielder Brana not travelling to Ibague for this game either, which affects Estudiantes as a unit. Those two absentees make this an even harder game for Estudiantes and I think they’ll really struggle tonight as a result. Estudiantes have already struggled twice away from home in the current Copa Libertadores campaign with an annihlation being inflicted upon them by in-form Cruzeiro and a nervy and arguably undeserved 1-2 win at Paraguayan side Guarani Asuncion since then in a game that they really should have won comfortably. This is a very hard away game for Estudiantes and the cracks that are appearing in their team should finally be exposed here, in my view.
Therefore, my call is the home win here. I think the price of 6/4 on a Deportes Tolima win is a bit generous considering the above information and I think the bookies have been influenced just a bit too much by the name of Estudiantes rather than the ever-important altitude factor. Deportes Tolima can match any side in South America at this height, in my view, even though it’s far from the highest venue in South America. In my eyes, with the hosts needing to win this game and Estudiantes missing two important players, the home win looks a good value bet tonight.
Team news – Estudiantes De La Plata miss Gaston Fernandez and Rodrigo Brana.
Verdict: Deportes Tolima to win at 6/4.
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Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
Nothing else appeals to me today, sorry guys! Feel free to check below for my thoughts on the remainder of today’s games though!
Copa Libertadores:
Deportes Tolima vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-0
Internacional vs Jorge Wilstermann (9) -1.5 handicap
Guarani Asuncion vs Cruzeiro (8) 1-2
International Friendly:
Morocco vs Botswana (6) under 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Burton Albion vs Macclesfield Town (5)
Accrington Stanley vs Hereford United (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Geylang United (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!
