Anorthosis Famagusta vs CSKA Moscow
Today's featured game is the UEFA Europa League Qualifier in Cyprus between Anorthosis Famagusta and CSKA Moscow. The first leg in Russia ended 4-0 to CSKA Moscow, and deservedly so after a thoroughly dominant display. That in itself means this game itself is fairly redundant so approach with caution if betting here.
I'm determined to bet in this game due to the lacklustre and frankly weak display from the Cypriot giants in Russia last week. I don't know whether it's that they suffered without having played many competitive games of late or if the climate change did them a lot of damage or if they were just simply outclassed but the fact remains that Anorthosis are not in the best shape for this game as they demonstrated with their 4-0 defeat. They're not the side that they used to be under former Georgian international Temur Ketsbaia. It's not necessarily a lessened ability that hinders them but more of a lack of confidence. I mean, take the position of goalkeeper, for instance. Due to the continuous errors of Slovak goalkeeper Matus Kozacik, Anorthosis brought in replacement Arguello from Orihuela in the Spanish Segunda Division B instead of trying to work with Kozacik. Arguello played just a few games for Anorthosis and was sent off in Moscow in the first leg of this tie for what was one of many blatant times where the Anorthosis defence didn't communicate with the goalkeeper so Arguello gave away a penalty. Arguello is suspended for the game tonight so what now - do Anorthosis bring in error-prone and now devoid-of-confidence Kozacik? Or do they take a risk and field unproven youngster Gavriel Constantinou? It's a dilemma for Anorthosis, whoever plays in goal, because the ease with which CSKA destroyed them in the first leg was frightening and the majority of the damage came from set pieces not being defended well enough, which is a specialist area of the Russian giants. Anorthosis tend to rely overly on the ageing duo of Cape Verde Islands striker Cafu and ex-Olympiakos Piraeus winger/striker Okkas as far as goalscoring goes but you have to be concerned that they barely created a chance in Russia in the first leg despite both afore-mentioned players playing in the game. We all know Russia is far from the ideal place for an away game but it was the manner of Anorthosis' defeat that concerned me and concerns me even for their game tonight. What's Anorthosis' game plan going to be - get the ball to Marangos and hope he bails them out? It's not enough against a CSKA side designed to stifle their opponents so Anorthosis look to have a lot of problems tonight.
It's been some time since I could feel confident backing any CSKA Moscow side due to their departures concerning me far more than their new signings were impressing me. The decline saw the likes of Jo, Erkin Caner, Daniel Carvalho, Yury Zhirkov, and Ramon all move on one way or another and now that list has been added to by Milos Krasic's move to Juventus. CSKA still haven't been able to replace Jo although they've tried testing the water with Polish striker Dawid Janczyk, Niger striker Maazou, former Spartak Moscow Brazilian striker Ricardo Jesus, Dynamo Kiev's Brazilian hot prospect Guilherme on loan (who returned to Kiev when the two clubs couldn't agree a fee), and Czech hot prospect Tomas Necid but none have filled the void, although Necid will be a good striker in years to come. Vagner Love's return to Brazil for personal reasons saw CSKA go on a barren run goalscoring-wise and looked to be done for, in all honesty. However, they have finally perhaps struck gold with the acquisition of ex-Young Boys Bern striker Doumbia, from the Ivory Coast. He's a real workhorse and yet excels with pace, aerial ability, and strength. CSKA have missed that kind of striker and he's starting to settle well as he showed in the first leg of this tie. Couple that with the fact that Vagner Love is now back and he's already inspired CSKA to glistening displays that include a 2-1 derby win at Spartak Moscow and you'll see that CSKA Moscow are a little more believable than before. Krasic has been replaced by Tosic, which is both a good and a bad move. Tosic is better with set pieces, which will suit CSKA to no end, but Krasic could change a game with his lightning pace so it remains to be seen how CSKA deal with that in due course. The emergence of playmaker Alan Dzagoev has given CSKA goals where they've needed them and the talented Japanese midfielder Keisuke Honda has also stepped up to the plate with excellent set pieces and a great passing range so CSKA do have potential here, although Honda's future is unknown currently as rifts with manager Slutsky continue to materialise. The unsung heroes for CSKA, however, are their defensive stalwarts - Akinfeev in goal, the Berzeutskiy brothers, and Sergey Ignashevich. They're rock-solid and understand each other very well indeed, each covering where the others fail. It's on this backline that CSKA first achieved success in European football some five years ago and they're still together now so experience is not even the word for these guys! CSKA's weak-point is emerging youngster Schennikov although he'll be a good player himself in years to come - he just lacks a little experience currently. Slutsky's possession football with CSKA tends to mean that their defence is not often called upon anyway and I expect that to be the case tonight. I'm a bit concerned that CSKA don't need to win this game but knowing Slutsky and an in-form Vagner Love, CSKA should make their presence felt tonight.
CSKA not only dominated the first leg through the reasons I mentioned earlier but also because they're mid-season in the Russian Premier League so they're a lot fitter than their Cypriot opponents. CSKA may have a hard time adapting to the climate in Larnaca tonight but that's the only difficulty I can see for them. I can see them playing a short-passing game here and just basically boring Anorthosis into submission by hitting them with counters and with Vagner Love in such excellent and inspirational form, you have to feel that CSKA are going to take advantage of Anorthosis today, particularly given Anorthosis' goalkeeping issues and inability to defend from set pieces. Therefore, barring a CSKA capitulation, I think the away win at 11/10 shows some value today.
Verdict: CSKA Moscow to win at 11/10.
Tuesday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Salzburg - both sides to score at 3/4.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv are the best side in Israel and Salzburg are the best side in Austria; fact. Hapoel don't play football like most Israeli sides as they do enjoy playing attractive attacking football. I don't know how real their "match fixing" ordeal was when they bizarrely lost 1-0 to Aktobe Lento in Kazakhstan in the earlier qualifying round of this competition but what I would urge you to not do is to assume that's how Hapoel are usually - they're not. They demonstrated in Austria how good they can be by winning 3-2 and if you cast your minds back to last year, you'll recall that they overcame arguably the best Rapid Vienna side in years 3-0 both home and away so don't go writing off the Israeli side here - they're really not the same as other Israeli outfits and their win in Austria was no fluke. Salzburg themselves are no clowns but Boghossian's integration in to the side to replace Marc Janko is taking time and that's why Salzburg's play falters against the better sides. They have some very good players in their side and they'll probably still win their domestic title (again!) but are they ready to come to Israel and win this game as they have to? I have my doubts. What I don't doubt, however, is their ability to generate goals from nowhere and that has been shown in all of the games they've played in European football this year so I expect that to occur again. I'm not confident on who will actually progress here; I think it will be a very good game. However, with the tie finely-poised following a 3-2 win for Hapoel Tel-Aviv in Austria, this tie looks set to be a very good one too with plenty of goals. Neither side are particularly solid at the back at the moment and both prefer to attack than defend so my call here is for both sides to score at 3/4.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 3/4.
Peterborough United vs Cardiff City - away win at 5/4.
The majority of us got burned the last time that the League Cup came around so kudos if you managed to squeeze anything from the limp rag of the League Cup, nadir of English footballing competition. Nonetheless, I'll bravely toss my hat into the ring with two selections today, the first one being this game at the London Road Ground.
I have a lot of respect for Peterborough United because they're real battlers and the fact that they've already come from behind to win twice this season speaks volumes for their belief. However, it also speaks volumes for their inability to defend, which is what my primary focus is on for this game today. Peterborough have shipped eight goals in three consecutive games thus far in English competition and two of those sides either play in the division below or were just promoted from the division below! I cannot fault Peterborough's ever-present attacking potency but their defence is terrifying and should be exposed horribly against good sides, as I expect it to be today. I'm sure the majority of you saw Cardiff City's 4-0 romp over Doncaster Rovers at weekend, which was largely inspired by Welsh legend Craig Bellamy joining them on loan, with he himself getting on the scoresheet with a beauty of a free-kick. The mood in the Cardiff camp for both players and fans alike couldn't be higher following the acquisition of Bellamy and their excellent display against Doncaster so they bring a lot of momentum into this game. I fancy Cardiff to get promoted from the Championship minefield this year, particularly with both Koumas and Bellamy now in their ranks on loan, and it's long overdue that they do get a shot in the Premier League, really. Dave Jones has done a fantastic job there and the likes of Boothroyd and Ledley consistently put in good displays for the Bluebirds so Cardiff are not simply a side of two loaned players; they have quality to the core. My concern for them would be their occasionally haphazard defending but in all honesty, if they can't outscore a defensively-inept Peterborough United whilst everything is in their favour then they do have issues! I think the odds are just a tad generous on the away win so my call is for Cardiff to win this one at 5/4.
Verdict: Cardiff City to win at 5/4.
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers - away win at 5/4.
I rarely bet on Bolton Wanderers at the best of times but the introduction of former Bolton Wanderers striker Owen Coyle to the helm has transformed them from a boring 4-5-1 side to an attacking 4-3-3 side. Coyle is no mug; he knows the lower leagues and he knows how to get results, as minnows Burnley proved by gaining promotion with a limited budget under his stewardship. Bolton began to show the benefits of Coyle's football when they appointed him last year and have shown it again this year in both pre-season friendlies and also by nullifying Fulham (albeit in a 0-0 draw) and winning impressively 3-1 at West Ham United at weekend. Coyle has brought in good and experienced signings - Klasnic, Petrov, Blake - and Bolton do look better for it. Most importantly, Coyle has got Swedish misfit Johan Elmander scoring goals and Toulouse fans can tell you how dangerous that can be. Coyle has this Bolton side believing in themselves and they've not done that for some years so I fancy them to have a very good year this time around.
Southampton's dreams have curled up and died before their eyes following the shock of their chairman dying. I don't know the ins and outs of how it impacts their future as he poured a lot of money into the club, both on and off the field, but it's certainly impacted the south coast side, as you'd expect. They've played three home games this season and have only won one of them, which was a Leagu Cup game against Bournemouth. They've lost at home to Plymouth Argyle 1-0 and drawn at home to Leyton Orient 1-1 in their two League One home games thus far so life isn't particularly rosy for the promotion favourites currently. It's not helped that star striker Rickie Lambert has only played once for them this season as his and midfielder Adam Lallana's goals pushed them towards the promotion places last year. Now that he is back, however, Southampton may finally begin to climb the League One table. However, I feel this kind of game is too soon for us to see the best of Lambert and with Southampton looking vulnerable without him at his best, I think the hosts are there for the taking tonight.
This is undoubtedly a risky call as Southampton will be motivated for this game as they're a big club and understandably resent not being in the Premier League themselves so games against Premier League sides are often hotly-contested affairs. However, on both the quality and goals front, I have to favour this new-look Bolton Wanderers side to do the damage today. I would approach with caution as it's the League Cup but the away win at 5/4 looks an interesting one today.
Verdict: Bolton Wanderers to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Universidad de Chile, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Blackburn Rovers, Flora Tallinn.
Recommended bets:
Blackburn Rovers and Cardiff City at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today's games, see below!
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Salzburg (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Basel (4) 1-1
Anderlecht vs Partizan Belgrade (7) 2-0
Sevilla CF vs Sporting Braga (4) 0-0
Sampdoria vs Werder Bremen (6) 2-1
UEFA Europa League Qualifier:
Anorthosis Famagusta vs CSKA Moscow (6) 0-2
Copa Sudamericana:
Universidad de Chile vs Oriente Petrolero (9) -1.5 handicap
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Universidad Cesar Vallejo (6) under 2.5 goals
English League Cup:
Bradford City vs Preston North End (5) both sides to score
Brentford vs Hull City (5) 1-1
Crewe Alexandra vs Ipswich Town (6) 1-2
Hartlepool United vs Wigan Athletic (4) over 2.5 goals
Leeds United vs Leicester City (7) 1-1
Leyton Orient vs West Bromwich Albion (7) 1-2
Milton Keynes Dons vs Blackpool (6) over 2.5 goals
Millwall vs Middlesbrough (6) under 2.5 goals
Morecambe vs Burnley (6) 0-0
Peterborough United vs Cardiff City (6) over 2.5 goals
Portsmouth vs Crystal Palace (5) 1-1
Scunthorpe United vs Sheffield Wednesday (4) 2-1
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers (7) 1-2
Stoke City vs Shrewsbury Town (7) 2-0
Sunderland vs Colchester United (7) over 2.5 goals
Tranmere Rovers vs Swansea City (5) 0-1
Watford vs Notts County (6) 1-0
West Ham United vs Oxford United (7) 2-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Southend United (8) 2-0
Blackburn Rovers vs Norwich City (8) 2-0
Reading vs Northampton Town (6) both sides to score
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Sillamae Kalev vs Nomme Kalju (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Flora Tallinn vs Flora Paide (9) -1.5 handicap
Swedish Superettan:
Orgryte vs Falkenberg (6) under 2.5 goals
Landskrona BoIS vs Angelholm (5)
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Zamora vs Deportivo Petare (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea
Today's featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter between Atletico Madrid and Chelsea. The hosts were in dismal form when these two sides met two weeks ago at Stamford Bridge and were duly punished for their lack of cohesion by being trounced 4-0. The result perhaps flattered Chelsea as Atletico Madrid had some good chances of their own. However, what remains apparent is that Chelsea certainly did deserve the win so credit must be given to the Londoners for that. Carlo Ancelotti has certainly got Chelsea playing very good and efficient football. They've won all three of their group games so far and a win today would all but guarantee them qualification for the latter stages of the UEFA Champions League. Atletico Madrid have gained just one point from a possible nine, which really isn't good enough for a club of this size or for a club with any intentions whatsoever to launch a genuine attempt for club football's most prestigious trophy. More worryingly for Atletico Madrid, they're still yet to register a goal in the UEFA Champions League this year. Given their atrocious form of late and inability to keep a clean sheet, it's very hard to look beyond n away win for an extremely potent and in-form Chelsea at 5/6, which is frankly a bargain.
Tuesday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea - away win at 5/6 - see introduction for full details.
Queens Park Rangers vs Crystal Palace - home win at 4/5. Hosts Queens Park Rangers let me down last friday by losing at home to Leicester City, which was really very disappointing, particularly as Radek Cerny simply gifted Matty Fryatt his goal towards the end of the game. However, they remain a good side, jolted though they are, with three wins in their past four games. What makes it easier for me to make this call is the unimpressive form of Neil Warnock's Crystal Palace, who haven't won in their last four games, drawing three times and losing once. The problems that the visitors are having isn't entirely unexpected given their stretched squad of youngsters and their large financial issues. I'm more surprised that it's taken this long to show, really, so hats off to Neil Warnock for that. However, I fully expect them to be outclassed today by a Queens Park Rangers side desperate to get back to winning ways. Therefore, 4/5 on the home win looks a good call to me!
AC Milan vs Real Madrid - home win at 6/4. After a surprise win at the Santiago Bernabeu, AC Milan have continued their muddled season as expected, thus proving my point that the reason they won was Real Madrid's inability to defend and inability to score goals consistently without Cristiano Ronaldo. AC Milan managed a late victory at Chievo Verona after trailing for the majority of the game with two late goals from Alessandro Nesta stealing the win for the visitors. AC Milan have also managed to draw 2-2 at SSC Napoli despite leading for the majority of the game and then managed to overcome newly-promoted Parma at weekend by a scoreline of 2-0, which again didn't tell the whole story with Parma coming close and even rattling the woodwork at the San Siro. However, Real Madrid have fared little better with a 4-0 first leg humbling at local rivals Alcorcon from the Spanish Segunda B league. What's more worrying is that the encounter with Alcorcon saw Real Madrid field 80% of their first team and they were still torn apart by the minnows. Real Madrid may have managed to overcome Getafe at weekend 2-0 but there are more problems there than people see. Real Madrid's biggest problem is not only that they cannot defend but their full-backs are atrocious, continually exposing Real Madrid's feeble offside trap and getting crosses in all too easily. Italian sides are always tactically astute and will be aware of Real Madrid's defensive weakness, something they indicated in the reverse fixture by having godly playmaker Andrea Pirlo launching balls in behind Marcelo and finding joy every time. Real Madrid are still missing Cristiano Ronaldo so it's difficult to see them getting a result here unless they really turn it on. Don't get me wrong - Real Madrid have better individuals than AC Milan but AC Milan have a highly experienced and organised side so I'm backing them to do the same again, particularly with striker Pato looking as lethal as he has been. Whereas it's unlikely that Iker Casillas will have as much a nightmare this time around (or Dida, for that matter!), I still think AC Milan will win this game at 6/4. It's also worth looking at over 2.5 goals or over 3.5 goals in this fixture as neither are particularly effective defensively.
APOEL Nicosia vs Porto - lay Porto at 11/10. This is a bold call but I'm going to base it on Porto's recent mishaps more than anything. They've simply not been playing well and although they've managed to grind out a few results, they were finally exposed last match by a weak Belenenses, with whom they drew 1-1 at the Estadio do Dragao. Porto's fans have been whistling/booing their team for the past few games now and it's starting to have an impact on the team's performances. Two things that the Cypriot hosts do have is tenacity and organisation, as all the Cypriot sides exemplify very well. APOEL Nicosia already proved in Madrid earlier on in this campaign that they're capable of blocking sides out and being hard to beat. APOEL Nicosia can't realistically have any hope of emerging from this group for the UEFA Champions League latter stages but they can harbour a hope for the third-place finish, which would put them in the UEFA Europa League. Both sides could use the win here but I feel confident that both would take the draw, too. If Porto turn it on then they're capable of beating today's hosts but I'm relying on them not showing up against their resilient hosts, particularly as English giants Chelsea have already struggled to get a result here in this campaign. Therefore, I feel there's some good value in laying Porto at 11/10.
Bayern Munich vs Girondins de Bordeaux - lay Bayern Munich at 10/11. The fundamental point behind this bet is the assumption that Frank Ribery and Arjen Robben will be missing, like they were at VFB Stuttgart at weekend. Why? Because these two players turn Bayern Munich from an average side with a couple of good players into a force that are capable of scoring against any side. Bayern Munich failed to register a goal away to VFB Stuttgart at weekend, something that atypically wouldn't be such a big issue but considering how badly VFB Stuttgart have played this season and the fact that they entered the game with Bayern Munich on the back of three straight defeats, you have to be surprised that the game finished 0-0. Bayern Munich suffered a defeat away to Girondins de Bordeaux two weeks ago, as well as suffering the indignity of having two men dismissed, who will both be missing for this counter. Bayern Munich have looked anything but reliable so far in European competition and I expect Laurent Blanc's resilient and efficient Girondins de Bordeaux to put up a big fight today. Girondins de Bordeaux have already matched Juventus away from home, drawing 1-1, and beaten Bayern Munich 2-1, so in my opinion, they're looking the most consistent side in this group currently and I wouldn't bet against them winning the group. The French outfit have more talent than they're given credit for so I think they're more than capable of getting a result here today, particularly if Bayern Munich are missing the hilariously dubbed "Robbery" duo. Therefore, laying Bayern Munich at 10/11 looks a good bet to me today!
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Bayern Munich vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 1-1
Maccabi Haifa vs Juventus (8) under 2.5 goals
Manchester United vs CSKA Moscow (9) -1.75 handicap
Besiktas JK vs VFL Wolfsburg (7) 2-1
AC Milan vs Real Madrid (7) over 3.5 goals
Olympique de Marseille vs FC Zurich (8) -1.75 handicap
APOEL Nicosia vs Porto (4) 1-1
Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea (8) under 2.5 goals
Argentinian Primera Division:
Colon de Santa Fe vs Huracan (8) 2-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Dornbirn vs Austria Vienna II (6)
Lustenau vs First Vienna (5)
Admira Wacker vs Salzburg II (7)
St.Polten vs Hartberg (8)
Gratkorn vs Austria Lustenau (6)
Wacker Innsbruck vs SCR Altach (6) draw no bet
English Championship:
Queens Park Rangers vs Crystal Palace (7)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Sillamae Kalev vs Levadia Tallinn (7) 1-2
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Flora Paide (6) 1-0
Tulevik Viljandi vs Kuressaare (7) 2-1
Tallinna Kalev vs Flora Tallinn (8) over 2.5 goals
Nomme Kalju vs Trans Narva (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!
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