Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League Qualifier in Estonia between Levadia Tallinn and Debreceni VSC. These two sides met in last year’s competition with the Hungarian champions emerging triumphant on that occasion and to be honest, I expect the same outcome this time around.

Maybe I’ll be proven wrong today but I don’t see why the bookies have priced Debrecen so generously. They’re the better side by some distance and they overcame Levadia last time around when Levadia had a stronger side than they do now! Debrecen are coming back to face Levadia again with more experience, a similar level of ability, and the determination to make the group stages of this competition again and I don’t see why they can’t secure that tonight with an assured display. I have a lot of respect for Levadia Tallinn and I don’t underestimate the arising level of Estonian football but they have real problems scoring goals and considering that they’re facing a superior side, this now becomes a very big problem indeed. Levadia are good enough to keep the scoreline low and respectable but I’ll be very surprised indeed if Debrecen don’t win this one through natural progression, particularly with their Hungarian Super Cup win against Fehervar last week under their belts to give them some momentum, which is very useful considering that the Soproni Liga hasn’t started yet but the Meistriliiga is mid-season. Levadia won’t make this game easy but the odds on the away win are far too long, in my opinion, and thus worth a punt. The only outcome I can see where Debrecen don’t win this game is if it melts into a stalemate but I still think the away win is the most likely outcome here. Estonian football may be on the rise but Hungarian football is very good indeed at the moment and is only getting better!

Verdict: Debreceni VSC to win at 29/20.

Tuesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Birkirkara vs MSK Zilina - away win at 2/5.

These aren’t particularly good odds but they should be far shorter! Zilina are experienced in Europe and a hell of a lot better than Birkirkara. Maltese football is decent at best but I think Zilina will destroy them today. Let’s face it – any side that can concede three times at home to Andorran opponents has real problems, particularly considering that Birkirkara’s strength in Europe tends to be defence rather than attack! I can’t see the hosts doing anything here, to be honest – Zilina should run riot, even if they don’t score many goals in general. For me, the odds on the away win here should be 1/4 at the longest.

Verdict: MSK Zilina to win at 2/5.

Liepajas Metalurgs vs Sparta Prague – lay Sparta Prague at 23/20.

There are some surprising odds on this one. Sparta Prague are very experienced but their side isn’t as good as it used to be. Their strength in the Gambrinus Liga last season was keeping sides out rather than outscoring them. Don’t get me wrong – Sparta are unquestionably the better of the two sides here today but they’re definitely not worth the odds of 1/2 that they’ve been given. Liepajas Metalurgs aren’t as strong as they used to be either, in my opinion, but no trips to the Baltic states are easy anymore so I don’t know why the bookies have written them off so early. I think both sides would take a draw here pre-match and I also think that’s the most likely outcome with determined hosts that are mid-season against experienced Sparta that are short on match practice. It’s a dubious call, for sure, but the odds for laying the visitors here should never be as long as they are.

Verdict: Lay Sparta Prague at 23/20.

AIK Solna vs Jeunesse d’Esch – Jeunesse d’Esch to win with +1.75 goal handicap at 2/1.

Very dubious but fun call here! AIK have been shocking this season and are only now starting to turn things around gradually. Their strength was always in keeping sides out rather than scoring goals but today they’re heavy favourites – too heavy, in my opinion – and are expected to score a lot of goals. The AIK side I know aren’t capable of scoring lots of goals due to their football style so whereas I do think they’ll win the game, I don’t envision it being heavily, although the possibility is always there against Luxembourgian opponents! Jeunesse aren’t a good side but they’ll be determined here and determination is something that AIK have looked particularly susceptible against this season, particularly in defence, so don’t be surprised if the visitors steal a goal here. Luxembourgian football isn’t as bad as it was as Dudelange proved by beating Randers the other night, albeit at home. I think the visitors will cause a stir today and although I expect them to lose, I think the odds on giving them a  +1.75 goal head start are far too generous and should be given some thought, particularly as AIK aren’t worth 1/20 to beat anyone in my opinion!

Verdict: Jeunesse d’Esch to win with a +1.75 goal handicap at 2/1.

Accumulator fodder:

MSK Zilina, Salzburg.

Recommended bets:

MSK Zilina, Salzburg, and Debreceni VSC at 3/1

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!

UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:

Inter Baku vs Lech Poznan (6) 1-1
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Sparta Prague (5) 0-0
Levadia Tallinn vs Debreceni VSC (7) 0-1
Salzburg vs HB Torshavn (8) 2-0
Birkirkara vs MSK Zilina (8) 1-2
Omonia Nicosia vs Renova Dzepciste (7) 2-0
AIK Solna vs Jeunesse d’Esch (7) 2-1
Litex Lovech vs Rudar Pljevlja (7) 2-0
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (7) 2-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs Koper (7) 2-1
Bohemians vs The New Saints (7) 1-0

Irish Premier League:

Sligo Rovers vs UCD (6) 1-0

Singaporean S-League:

Young Lions vs Etoile (5) 1-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!