Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna

Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game between Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna. Hosts Atletico Madrid have finally started playing well again in recent times and look a threat once more whereas Deportivo La Coruna have nosedived so we should have an interesting game on our hands tonight.

Hosts Atletico Madrid have won eight out of fourteen home games this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game. Atletico Madrid are inept defensively but so are the majority of Spanish sides so it’s not an uncommon thing. Atletico have scored four goals in their last two games as they drew at Valencia mid-week in the UEFA Europa League and were beaten 3-2 by bitter rivals Real Madrid in the Primera Liga. Atletico are certainly back to goalscoring ways and have been strong at home as a result, winning their last four home games in the Primera Liga despite facing giants Barcelona and Valencia and despite hosting gritty Basque sides Osasuna and Athletic Club de Bilbao. Surprisingly, Atletico have only conceded twice during those four games but have scored nine times along the way so they’re finally gaining some kind of consistency, which in itself is bizarre for them, but it makes it easier for me to back them tonight.

What counts against Deportivo La Coruna massively tonight is that they don’t score many goals when they’re at the peak of their form, let alone when they’re out of form, so sides like Atletico tend to have a lot of joy against them. Deportivo have lost their last five visits here consecutively and haven’t won here since 1999 so they don’t like their trips here much at all! Deportivo’s tactics on the road are purely to stop opponents scoring goals as they struggle to score enough themselves to counter their respective opponents – an average of less than a goal per away game – but they’ve failed in defence too of late which must surely concern them. Deportivo are now without a win in four games, losing their last three games consecutively. They’ve only lost one of those games away from home but they’ve concerningly lost two home games against sides that they should be drawing against at the very least so morale is low as a result. Deportivo have conceded eight goals in their past four games – two goals per game on average – which is an unthinkable record for a defensively strong side. Deportivo are getting their token goals still but don’t have the momentum or morale to trouble Atletico tonight, in my opinion.

No side has an easy game against Deportivo but with Atletico scoring so many goals and Deportivo leaking so easily, you have to feel that there’s value in the home win tonight.

Verdict: Atletico Madrid to win at 4/5.

Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Boca Juniors vs Rosario Central – lay Boca Juniors at evens.

Hosts Boca Juniors are in a bizarre place currently. They’re the third highest goalscoring side in the Primera Division but they’re third from bottom in the Primera Division too as they’re the biggest conceding side in the division. However, both of those scoring records are applicable largely to their away form; their home form is somewhat presentable. However, Boca have only won twice in five home games this season despite their measured goal difference so they haven’t exactly started their season the way they wanted to! Boca have only won once in their last five games whilst losing three times and that victory was against bitter rivals River Plate so I’d suggest that motivation is an issue for Boca currently. They’ve lost at home to Racing Club Avellaneda during those five games and their most recent match was an embarassing 4-1 defeat at Chacarita Juniors so Boca are hardly the epitome of composure currently.

Visitors Rosario Central are also having a puzzling campaign although theirs is easier to comprehend as they just don’t score goals. Rosario have only conceded seven times in six away games which is a presentable record, particularly when you consider that they’re second from bottom in the Primera Division. However, scoring just twice on the road during that time is the reason that their record isn’t improving. That said, Rosario have only lost twice in their six away games as they tend to draw their games or take a beating; they clearly don’t believe in the “grey” patch of form. Rosario have lost their last two games consecutively so their form has to be a concern to them. However, they’re resolute and defend solidly away from home so I’ll give them their chances here.

All in all, Boca Juniors are too short for this game. They’re not playing particularly well and they’re rarely winning games so why they’re 4/6 is beyond me. Boca haven’t beaten Rosario at home in three out of their last four attempts so the odds on laying the hosts tonight might just be something of a gift.

Verdict: Lay Boca Juniors at evens.

Lanus vs River Plate – home win at 6/5.

Hosts Lanus are finally starting to rebuild their Clausura campaign with two consecutive wins. They’re adopting the “Argentinos Juniors” approach of winning games 1-0 so backing them is a tad precarious against potent sides. However, that shouldn’t be an issue tonight as one thing that River Plate cannot do is score goals currently.

Lanus drew their last game mid-week in Paraguay against Libertad Asuncion. This might not seem like a particularly impressive result but it is when you consider that they trailed from the third minute after ex-River Plate defender Pedro Sarabia put Libertad ahead. Then Lanus had their star striker Silva dismissed on the half-hour mark and despite battling against those two factors, Lanus scored a late goal to equalise and were arguably unlucky not to win the game. What this shows is determination, committment, and even belief – three things that Lanus had been lacking this season. However, they’re now unbeaten in four games in all competitions, winning three times and drawing once, so Lanus have some strong momentum behind them currently. Lanus have already won three out of five home games this season and have only lost once so they’re rapidly establishing themselves as a strong home side yet again so I’m happy to back them tonight.

Visitors River Plate just don’t appear to be able to fight their way out of their current predicament. Only San Lorenzo de Almagro, Rosario Central, and Atletico Tucuman respectively have scored less goals than they have this season which explains why they’re languishing near the bottom of the table. They’ve already lost three out of five away games in the Primera Division and don’t even manage to score a goal per away game on average so falling behind in away games tends to be fatal for the fallen giants. River Plate haven’t scored in three out of their last four games and have lost two consecutve away games without scoring a goal. River Plate are simply a very goal-shy side and are finding only a single goal an impossible obstacle to overcome so look likely to struggle tonight against Lanus as they do against most sides currently.

Lanus may only be winning games 1-0 but they are still scoring and they’re strong at home so they should have too much for goal-shy River Plate at very generous odds.

Verdict: Lanus to win at 6/5.

CSKA Sofia vs Montana – lay CSKA Sofia at 11/4.

This is definitely a risky call but I couldn’t resist with CSKA Sofia at 1/5 for some bizarre reason!

First of all, CSKA Sofia are better than Montana – a lot better. However, as we all know in football, that is not the be all and end all. CSKA have only won once in their last six games and have only scored once during their last four games. CSKA have been humiliated at Lokomotiv Mezdra and have drawn at home to Pirin Blagoevgrad in recent times so they’re really not playing their best at all. I don’t think anyone is in a position to doubt CSKA’s actual level of abiliy but their performances of late and their lack of goals scored leaves me with doubts regarding them beating anyone at the moment, even little Montana!

Montana are a pretty damn poor side and I think I’m being generous with that description. They simply don’t score goals, which is naturally a handicap for a side that…well, has to score goals! Montana are without a win in four consecutive games and have only scored once during that time but have only lost twice so they’re a fairly capable side defensively. This is also reflected in their overall away form as they’ve lost just four games in ten away games this season. Montana don’t score many but don’t concede many so could prove to be a real thorn in the side of CSKA today.

We all know CSKA are the better side here but they’re unbelievably short to win this game. Montana are a capable enough side to grind out a 0-0 draw so I think laying CSKA at oustanding odds is a potentially good call today.

Verdict: Lay CSKA Sofia at 11/4.

Liga de Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil – home win at 10/11.

These odds are surprising – we should be seeing at least 4/6 here! I can only imagine the bookies are reading too much into the current form of Barcelona Guayaquil because Liga de Quito are the best side in Ecuador currently!

Both of these sides have made a great start to their respective Primera A campaigns and both occupy the top two places in the table as a result. Liga de Quito have been cutting at home so far this season with three wins and one draw in four home games, scoring ten times and conceding just once. Barcelona have done well on the road with two wins, one draw, and just one defeat in their four away games. Barcelona were crushed at bitter rivals Emelec recently in their only defeat of the season but that left them looking somewhat unconvincing in their away win against Espoli Cayambe. That uncertainty, if shown tonight, will be exploited by a rampant and experienced Liga de Quito, which is ultimately what I expect to happen.

Look, there’s basically a damn good reason that Liga de Quito have won five consecutive home games against Barcelona Guayaquil and it’s because they’re better than them. Liga de Quito are as strong as ever at home so why the bookies have under-priced Liga de Quito tonight is beyond me.

Verdict: Liga de Quito to win at 10/11.

Birmingham City vs Liverpool – lay Liverpool at 10/11.

There’s no secret to this one – Birmingham are simply bloody hard to play against at home. They’ve avoided defeat at home to Chelsea, Arsenal, and Manchester United respectively this season so why they can’t against an inferior Liverpool is beyond me. Birmingham have only lost two home games in the Premier League this season and that record should be kept entact against Liverpool today as the hosts will be looking to their tough game at home to SL Benfica in the UEFA Europa League next week. Liverpool have only won four out of sixteen away games in the Premier League this season and have the lowest goalscoring record on the road out of the whole of the top nine in the Premier League. Liverpool haven’t won in their last six away games and have only scored twice during that run so it’s easy to see why they don’t do very well! They’re up against a rock-solid Birmingham defence today and I just can’t see them breaching it so laying them at evens looks a good bet to me.

Verdict: Lay Liverpool at 10/11.

Auxerre vs Paris Saint-Germain – home win at 21/20.

Auxerre have had a sensational campaign and I’m still not really sure why! I suppose you could loosely classify them as one of the best “teams” in France in the sense that they work hard for each other and perform very efficiently. However, far be it from me to decide which sides carry the most momentum so I’ll happily follow Auxerre for this one today! They’ve already won ten out of fifteen home games in Ligue 1 and boast one of the best defensive records in the division, which is basically the stability behind their success. Auxerre have won their last four home games consecutively and look likely to extend that run today with the proviso that their reliable defence turns up as usual!

Visitors Paris Saint-Germain have had a disappointing campaign in comparison to their good campaign last season, finding themselves closer to the drop zone than the European places this season. They’ve been particularly disappointing away from home with eight defeats in fifteen away games in Ligue 1. They don’t concede excessively but they do concede more than they score, hence their problems. PSG haven’t won in their last seven away games in Ligue 1, losing five times along the way. PSG have only scored once in their last three away game so should struggle to a substantial level against Auxerre today.

Although this has the hallmarks of being one of the most droll games ever – along with the rest of Auxerre’s games – you still have to feel that the home win has value in it today for a robotic Auxerre to dismantle a disappointing Paris Saint-Germain.

Verdict: Auxerre to win at 21/20.

VFL Wolfsburg vs Hoffenheim – home win at 5/6.

Why aren’t Wolfsburg 4/6 for this game? Do the bookies still think that Hoffenheim are a legitimate title threat or something?!

Wolfsburg lost mid-week at Fulham in the UEFA Europa League, which will have disappointed them as they largely contained Fulham rather well but they scored an away goal so they won’t be too disheartened. They’ve won four out of their last five Bundesliga games and have scored twelve times along the way – an average of over two goals scored per game. Aside from a bizarre 5-1 humiliation at home by Hertha HSC Berlin, Wolfsburg have been unusually astute defensively, conceding just once in their four wins. However, it’d be foolish to state anything but the fact that Wolfsburg are playing well at the moment and are scoring goals for fun. We all know that they’re better than their Bundesliga placing suggests and I expect that to show today.

Hoffenheim aren’t a bad side. In fact, they’re quite a well-organised side but don’t score many goals due to “second season syndrome”, as I call it. Basically, the new sides that make an impact in their first season get “found out” in their second season and that is what has happened to Hoffenheim. They’re without a win in their last four games, drawing twice and losing twice. They’ve already lost seven out of fourteen away games this season but do manage to hold their own sometimes with some rigid defending. Their goalscoring tends to take a backseat but their defensive ability tends to be enough for them to take points off some sides. However, Hoffenheim today face one of the most potent sides in the Bundesliga currently and I expect them to know it by the final whistle too. Hoffenheim have scored just once in their last four games and despite conceding just three times along the way, it’s easy to see why they’re not doing very well currently.

I think Hoffenheim’s solid defence will get a proper test from a potent Wolfsburg today and I expect the hosts to break through at somepoint and ultimately take three points as I have no faith whatsoever in Hoffenheim’s limited attack.

Verdict: VFL Wolfsburg to win at 5/6.

Zalaegerszegi TE vs Fehervar – home win at 11/5.

ZTE have been superb of late with no defeats since returning from the winter break, winning four out of six games in all competitions and drawing the other two. ZTE have won their last three Soproni Liga games consecutively, including a 4-1 demolition of giants Debreceni VSC in their last home game, so ZTE are on top of the world currently! ZTE are a strong home side as it is with seven wins in ten games so their momentum will only further their home strength. They’re the top goalscorers in the division when playing at home with an average of over two goals being scored per home game so they should be a big threat today.

League leaders Fehervar have been strong on the road this season with six wins in ten games. However, it’s their goalscoring ability which has taken them to those dizzying heights as their away record tends to mask the fact that they concede a lot of goals on the road for a big side – 1.5 goals per away game on average, in fact. However, Fehervar are currently in something of a burn out with goals being hard to come by. They started promisingly following their return from the winter break but have only scored twice in their last three away games so are starting to falter. They’ve only won one of those games, drawing the other two, so a solid home side could break through their leaky defence and expose their lack of potency. Fehervar have only won once in their last four games in all competitions so they’re certainly starting to struggle, which was inevitable as they’re not as strong in-depth as their fellow title challengers Debreceni VSC.

Fehervar are still a good and very capable side but they’re looking rather tired of late due to competing on various fronts. ZTE look to have been given a new lease of life of late and will no doubt use it against Fehervar today. We should see a great game between two well-matched sides but I think the odds for the home win are beyond generous so it’s worth a punt on ZTE to win today!

Verdict: Zalegerszegi TE to win at 11/5.

Accumulator fodder:

Cherno More Varna, Beroe, Real Cartagena, Boyaca Chico, Everton, Hamburger SV, Suduva Marijampole, Santos Laguna, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, PSV Eindhoven, De Graafschap, Terek Grozny, Real Madrid, Eskisehirspor, Penarol.

Recommended bets:

Atletico Madrid, Everton, Terek Grozny, and AFC Ajax Amsterdam at 5/1.

Auxerre, PSV Eindhoven, Beroe, and Hamburger SV at 6/1.

VFL Wolfsburg, Real Madrid, Eskisehirspor, and Cherno More Varna at 5/1.

Estudiantes De La Plata, Lanus, Real Cartagena, and Boyaca Chico at 9/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Estudiantes De La Plata vs Banfield (8) 1-0
Boca Juniors vs Rosario Central (6) 1-1
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Velez Sarsfield (5) 0-0
Lanus vs River Plate (7) 2-0

Austrian Bundesliga:

Wiener Neustadt vs Austria Vienna (6) 1-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Racing Genk vs Standard de Liege (6) 1-0

Bulgarian A PFG:

Cherno More Varna vs Sportist Svoge (9) 2-0
CSKA Sofia vs Montana (4) 0-0
Beroe vs Lokomotiv Mezdra (8) 2-0

Colombian Primera A:

Boyaca Chico vs Deportes Quindio (8) 2-0
Atletico Huila vs Deportivo Cali (7) 1-1
Cortulua vs Deportes Tolima (6) 0-1
Real Cartagena vs La Equidad Bogota (8) 2-1
Envigado vs Deportivo Pereira (5) 1-1
Once Caldas Manizales vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (4) 1-1

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Bohemians Prague vs Kladno (5) 1-0
Ceske Budejovice vs Marila Pribram (6) 0-0

Danish Superligaen:

AGF Aarhus vs Randers (5) 1-1
HB Koge vs Brondby (6) 0-1

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Liga de Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil (8) 1-0

English Premier League:

Birmingham City vs Liverpool (7) 1-1
Fulham vs Wigan Athletic (7) 2-1
Everton vs West Ham United (8) 2-0

French Ligue 1:

Olympique de Marseille vs Racing Club Lens (8) 2-1
Boulogne vs Toulouse (6) 0-0
Auxerre vs Paris Saint-Germain (8) 2-0

German Bundesliga:

VFL Wolfsburg vs Hoffenheim (7) 2-1
Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 (8) 2-0

German Bundesliga 2:

1860 Munich vs Energie Cottbus (7)
Hansa Rostock vs Alemannia Aachen (5)
Augsburg vs Greuther Furth (7)
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Kaiserslautern (4)
Arminia Bielefeld vs FSV Frankfurt (7)
Koblenz vs Paderborn (6)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Zalaegerszegi TE vs Fehervar (6) over 2.5 goals

Japanese J-League:

Vegalta Sendai vs Kashima Antlers (7) 0-1
Jubilo Iwata vs Gamba Osaka (4) 1-2
Kawasaki Frontale vs Tokyo (6) 2-1

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Suduva Marijampole vs Zalgiris Vilnius (8) 2-1

Mexican Primera Division:

Toluca vs Estudiantes Tecos (7) 2-1
Santos Laguna vs Jaguares (8) 2-0
Guadalajara vs America (6) 2-1

Dutch Eredivise:

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs NAC Breda (6) 2-1
ADO Den Haag vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (10) -1.75 handicap
Heracles Almelo vs NEC Nijmegen (7) 1-0
Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven (8) 0-2

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

De Graafschap vs Go Ahead Eagles (8) over 2.5 goals

Russian Premier League:

Tom Tomsk vs Spartak Moscow (6) 1-2
Terek Grozny vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (8) 2-0
Saturn Moscow Oblast vs Rubin Kazan (7) 0-1
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Scottish Premier League:

Hibs vs Celtic (6) 1-2
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen (5) 1-1

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

Nitra vs Ruzomberok (6) 1-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Real Valladolid vs Villarreal (6) 0-1
Sporting Gijon vs Deportivo Xerez (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Getafe vs Espanyol (5) 1-1
Almeria vs Real Mallorca (6) 2-1
Valencia vs Osasuna (7) under 2.5 goals
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid (8) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna (8) over 2.5 goals

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Real Sociedad vs Hercules Alicante (6)
Girona vs Salamanca (7)
Cadiz vs Castellon (6)

Turkish Super Lig:

Manisaspor vs Genclerbirligi (6) 1-1
Diyarbakirspor vs Gaziantepspor (7) 1-1
Eskisehirspor vs Kasimpasa (8) 2-0
Fenerbahce vs Kayserispor (7) 2-1

Ukrainian Premier League:

Arsenal Kiev vs Metalurg Zaporizhya (6) 2-1

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Central Espanol vs Atenas (6) 2-1
Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro Largo (6) 1-1
River Plate Montevideo vs Tacuarembo (7) 1-0
Penarol vs Cerrito (9) -1.75 handicap
Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 2-2

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Yaracuyanos vs Caracas (6) 0-1

Welsh Premier League:

Neath Athletic vs Welshpool Town (6) 2-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Madrid

Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Deportivo La Coruna and Real Madrid. Riazor is not a ground that Real Madrid like to play at with no victory there in the past seventeen years. La Coruna is a nightmarish place to play anyway without that kind of record over your head but Real Madrid know that this is truly their bogey ground.

Hosts Deportivo La Coruna will have more confidence entering this game than any momentum could give them, in my opinion. What can gift a side better confidence than knowing that one of the best sides in the country continues to fail there? Deportivo have beaten Madrid for the last six years running at Riazor and haven’t lost here in seventeen years.

We all know that Deportivo La Coruna are a good side already, particularly at home regardless of their record of head-to-heads against Real Madrid. Deportivo have only lost here twice in ten Primera Liga games this season, winning six times and drawing the remaining two games. Deportivo are not a prolific side but there’s only a handful of sides that have conceded less goals at home in the Primera Liga than they have, which is naturally what makes them such a difficult side to play against. Deportivo have won two out of their last three games and only lost once in their last five so they do have some momentum to bring into this game anyway as well as their high motivation and home advantage so the hosts are looking a threat for this game already.

Visitors Real Madrid have won twice in their past four games and are gradually beginning to look a little frail. They’ve only won four out of nine away games this season and score a surprisingly few number of goals on the road, tending to focus more on keeping clean sheets than scoring goals which isn’t really a very Real Madrid-esque philosophy! Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pellegrini was sacked for even suggesting such a notion at all!  As the lengthy season drags on you need to have a strong squad and rest players. Madrid don’t have a strong squad – they have strong individuals and the only two that are doing the business for them is Ronaldo and Higuain, both of which are missing for this game. I hate to break this to some people but Ronaldo is carrying this side with his unbelievable ability so without him they tend to struggle.

Real Madrid simply haven’t been convincing of late, however, which is what I suspected would happen at somepoint this season. They’ve failed to score in both of their last two away games, which are rather ironic games to have failed to win, in my opinion. They’ve had two trips to the Basque country where they’ve taken on Osasuna and Athletic Club de Bilbao, drawing 0-0 in Pamplona and losing 1-0 in Bilbao. Those two venues are very difficult to play in because the hosts are physical, motivated, and never say die. Although La Coruna is some distance from the Basque country, the northern Spanish sides tend to adopt a similar approach and Deportivo are no exception. This game will be as tough (if not tougher) than their previous two away games so I really think that they’re going to struggle tonight. I simply cannot see where their goals will come from but I can see Deportivo breaking through their defence at least once in this game.

With or without the convincing head-to-head statistics, you have to feel that the value is with the home win or laying the visitors today!

Verdict: Lay Real Madrid at 4/5 or back Deportivo La Coruna to win outright at 4/11.

Saturday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United – home win at 5/6.

Hosts Wellington Phoenix have had their good run of form drastically cut short of late with two consecutive defeats. However, it’s worth noting that both of those defeats were on the road, which is where Wellington Phoenix are at their weakest. Wellington have won their last two home games consecutively and have scored six goals doing so, which is an average of three goals scored per home game. Wellington already have a strong home record with just one defeat in eleven games, winning five times and drawing five times so any side travelling here knows that they’ll have a fight on their hands. Wellington average scoring just under two goals per home game in all eleven games and only Perth Glory has conceded as few goals as they have at home in the A-League this season. Ultimately, despite the lack of momentum, Wellington are a good home side and should be back to normal today.

Visitors Adelaide United seem to cause their own problems endlessly by conceding too easily and not scoring enough goals. They’re the lowest scoring away side in the A-League with an average of nearly a goal scored for every two games they play. They’ve already lost six out of eleven away games this season despite being one of the lowest conceding away sides in the A-League. Adelaide have lost three out of their last five games now and haven’t won in their past six games so momentum is just a word from their past currently.

Overall, Wellington Phoenix are a reliable home side and enjoying scoring goals so even a watertight Adelaide defence should concede in this game and I just don’t believe that they’d have enough in the tank to equalise, thus leaving us with a good value home win!

Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win at 5/6.

Independiente Medellin vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota – home win at 3/4.

Hosts Independiente Medellin get a nice easy start to their new campaign by taking on the side that ran them closest to the top spot in the original group of sixteen – Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota. Reigning champions Independiente Medellin owe a great deal of their success in their last campaign to their phenomenal home record with seven wins in nine games, drawing once, and losing once. They’ll be looking to recreate that kind of form to retain their crown and it has to start today against title rivals Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota.

Visitors Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota were also traditionally strong at home last season but had a somewhat haphazard record on the road with three wins, three draws, and three defeats from nine games. Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota have only beaten Independiente Medellin once in their last six meetings at either ground so they know how difficult this game is. However, I don’t personally feel that there’s a harder away trip for any side than taking on the reigning champions at their own ground on the opening day of a new campaign so we could see some nerves here.

Ultimately, we’re in Colombia so we’re going to see some cards here. Independiente Medellin have won two and drawn once out of the last three home games they’ve played against tonight’s opponents and have scored two goals in all three games so I expect them to score one or two tonight too! Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota have only scored here twice in their last three visits, both of which were on their last visit in a 2-2 draw. I expect the reigning champions to make a good start to this campaign and they’ve got the home advantage to help them to do it so we should see three points on the home win tonight.

Verdict: Independiente Medellin to win at 3/4.

Liverpool vs Bolton Wanderers – lay Liverpool at 17/10.

Liverpool’s problems are well-documented; need I go into them? No Torres and no Benayoun leaves such pressure on Gerrard that even their talismanic midfielder is feeling it. His performance against Wolverhampton Wanderers mid-week was one of the worst I’ve ever seen from him and that’s difficult to say. Liverpool managed just one shot on target against relegation-threatened Wolverhampton Wanderers and that simply isn’t good enough. I expect Liverpool to approach this game in the same way that they approached the Wolverhampton Wanderers game and to gain a similar, if not identical, result today.

Why? Well, Bolton Wanderers look rejuvenated under Owen Coyle. They look more organised, more incisive, and the same old awkward bastards that everyone used to hate playing against. This is exactly the kind of side that Liverpool do not want to be facing right now. Bolton haven’t conceded a goal in their last two games and put in an impressive display away to Arsenal the game before that by taking a two goal lead before eventually succumbing to a 4-2 defeat. If Bolton take that kind of advantage against Liverpool today then I can only see Liverpool drawing this game at best because they’re not good enough to score four goals currently. Bolton are going to set their stall out here as being tough to beat so the onus is on Liverpool today to break them down.

Can they do it? I just can’t see it. I think there’s more value in laying Liverpool today because they’re not good enough to break sides down convincingly. Bolton are one of those sides and they’re even more motivated than normal so you have to fancy their chances of ending their dismal record at Anfield today.

Verdict: Lay Liverpool at 17/10.

Leeds United vs Colchester United – lay Leeds United at 6/5.

Now here are some odds that confuse me! Not only have Leeds not won in their past three League One games but they’re been bloody unconvincing in all three games, most notably in their 3-0 humbling at Swindon Town mid-week. Leeds now face one of the division’s better sides but with the knowledge that they have the all-important FA Cup replay with Tottenham Hotspur on the forthcoming wednesday so what does boss Simon Grayson do? He knows the club could really use the financial boost of a good cup run and he knows his side are well-placed to achieve promotion this season so dare we dream that he’ll field a weakened squad for this game? I think he might just do that. Leeds have only failed to win four games at home this season out of thirteen but a lack of momentum and a lot of diverted attention could mean that we see them slip up yet again today.

Visitors Colchester United may have a poor away record when it comes to actual wins but they remain one of the division’s better sides and have only lost three away games all season. Only today’s hosts Leeds United have conceded less away goals than Colchester United have this season so the visitors are quite the tough side to take on. Colchester have only lost once in their last five games, winning three times and drawing once, so the visitors do have some good momentum to bring into this game. Colchester have nothing to prepare for next week so they can and will field a full-strength squad today and I think they’ve got enough ability in their team to do some damage to a distracted Leeds United side today.

With the above in mind, it’s a tad baffling why the bookies rate Leeds’ chances so highly today. Don’t get me wrong – if they turn it on then they’ll beat anyone in this division at any time but the fact is that they’ve lost two consecutive games in League One and haven’t won in three and have to prepare for a tough tie with Tottenham next week. Therefore, the value has to be in laying Leeds today, I think.

Verdict: Lay Leeds United at 6/5.

Northampton Town vs Burton Albion – home win at 5/6.

Northampton Town have gone on a great run of form lately and are unbeaten in eight League Two games. They’ve won four times and drawn four times and have displayed a resilience in their team along the way that I hadn’t seen in them this season. Northampton have conceded just once in their past six games so their defence is looking mean, keen, and extremely alert! It helps them massively because their goalscoring is sporadic at best but the two forces combined to tend to mean that Northampton have more success than failure, naturally.

Visitors Burton Albion have now won two consecutive games so have gathered some momentum ahead of this game. However, Burton have conceded ten goals in their past five games, which is an average of two goals conceded per game, which is why Burton tend to struggle in the first place. Goalscoring comes naturally to Burton but conceding comes far more naturally, unfortunately for them. The two sides that Burton have beaten lately are Torquay United and Lincoln City, two sides that you’d expect Burton to give a good game to if not beat anyway. However, today Burton take on a side with actual ability as well as a resolute defence so they’re going to have to work immensely hard to take anything from this game, particularly with six defeats from twelve away games already this season and an average of conceding nearly two goals per game on the road all this year.

Overall, we have one very much in-form side that are defending like masters and one sporadic side that concede too many goals. I’m staying with consistency for this one and calling the value on a home win.

Verdict: Northampton Town to win at 5/6.

Port Vale vs Hereford United – home win at 5/6.

Port Vale don’t have the most convincing of home records with just three wins in twelve games this season but what they do have in their arsenal is the ability to keep a clean sheet. They managed it at a massively in-form and potent Rochdale side last match and also in the home encounter with Macclesfield Town the game before. Port Vale are actually unbeaten in their last five League Two games with two wins and three draws. Port Vale’s problem is scoring goals, unfortunately. Few sides break them down which is why only Notts County and Rotherham United have conceded less goals than Port Vale have this season. However, Port Vale simply have to find the net more to stand any chance of progressing as a club. The momentum they’ve gathered of late will assist them, as will their home advantage. If Port Vale take the lead then they can win this game easily because sides do find playing against Port Vale very difficult indeed so I think there’s some value in taking Port Vale already.

However, I take a lot of comfort from the fact that they’re hosting Hereford United, a side that has already lost eight out of thirteen away games this season. They average conceding nearly two goals per away game and have lost four out of their last five games, scoring just two goals along the way. Hereford have big problems defensively and this isn’t aided by their paltry goalscoring record either. Ultimately Hereford are not a good away side and I see nothing here that is going to change that today.

My biggest concern is Port Vale growing some balls and scoring goals. If they score, they really should have this game in the bag today.

Verdict: Port Vale to win at 5/6.

AC Oulu vs Jaro Pietarsaari – home win at 5/6.

Newly-promoted AC Oulu get their first taste of Veikkausliiga opponents by hosting Jaro Pietarsaari in the Liiga Cup. I’m not going to lie to you; I’ll be extremely surprised if AC Oulu stay up this season. They’re simply not a very good outfit at all. However, it’s their first game amongst the big boys of Finnish football and they’ll be keen to make an impact so they’ll be highly-motivated. AC Oulu have the advantage of their home support and should make Jaro work hard today.

The above isn’t enough on its own for me to take the home win but what does convince me is the length of Jaro Pietarsaari’s problems. For example, Sara, Haanpaa, Vaganov, Aho, Sarajarvi, Meyer, and Matrone are all missing this game for various reasons. What this means in black and white is that Jaro are missing a lot of defenders, which should help an AC Oulu side that drastically need whatever assistance that they can get. Jaro also lost a lot of players over the break – Tanska, Portin, Emet, Hyyrynen, Kojola, and Koivisto. Jaro have brought in some replacements but frankly it’s not enough to assist them this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them battling relegation themselves with such issues in their squad.

Although AC Oulu are undoubtedly only a match for Jaro when the visitors have a massively depleted squad, this is certainly one of those times. AC Oulu will not be more motivated to face Jaro and will not have a better chance to beat them so I think the home win is worth a sly punt today. 

Verdict: AC Oulu to win at 5/6.

Cittadella vs Ancona – home win at 6/5.

Cittadella are a strong home side with just one defeat at home in Serie B all season. They’ve only been beaten once in their last four games, winning once, and drawing twice, so they’ve got some momentum under their belts at least. Their home form of late has been encouraging with a draw against Brescia and a win against Torino so the hosts do have some momentum for this encounter today. Cittadella have won four out of their ten home games in Serie B this year, which isn’t great, but it’s enough for the foundation of this bet. Only a handful of sides have conceded less home goals than Cittadella have this season so it’s certainly wise not to understimate these guys! Cittadella enjoy their home games and that has shown of late – I expect them to put in a similar stint against fourth-placed Ancona today too.

Visitors Ancona bizarrely have a very poor away record with seven defeats in eleven games. They’ve not won any of their last three Serie B games, drawing once and losing twice. Ancona score about par for the course with their goalscoring ability on the road but they concede far too heavily to ever cause sides problems away from home. A lack of momentum caused by their three-game winless run certainly won’t help them ahead of this difficult trip and the fact that Ancona have lost their last three away games consecutively without even scoring a goal will certainly be playing on their minds, particularly as they’ve averaged conceding over two goals per game. Ancona were embarassed by bottom club Salernitana 3-0 in their last away game and then by little Mantova the game before that so why not Cittadella today?

Ancona are the better of these two sides but they’re not showing it at the moment so I fancy Cittadella to cause an upset today.

Verdict: Cittadella to win at 6/5.

CD Nacional vs Porto - lay Porto at 10/11.

Nobody but CD Nacional has come to this ground in Madeira this season and won so Porto will be aware that they’ve got a difficult game ahead of them. CD Nacional have won four times and drawn three times out of their seven home games in the Liga Sagres this season. They average scoring just shy of two goals per home game and are generally a force to be reckoned with. Their recent form has been somewhat poor with two consecutive defeats but it’s worth pointing out that those two games were both away to giants Sporting Clube de Lisboa and league leaders Sporting Braga so perhaps they can be forgiven! CD Nacional are very much a home side and have already held Sporting Clube de Lisboa to a draw here this season so CD Nacional know that they can stop the big sides if they play to their best.

Porto have only won once here in their last three visits, losing the other two games. Not only that but Porto have been far from convincing this season as any of their fans will testify, hence the persistent booing. I think the fans are a tad harsh on a side that has dominated this league in recent years with limited resources but that’s just my perspective. Porto have struggled in the league lately moreso than ever with a nervy win at home to Uniao de Leiria (3-2) and a disappointing draw at home to defensively-minded Pacos de Ferreira. Porto appear unable to break sides down as well as they used to be able to, which is understandable as they’ve lost the masterful duo of midfield maestro Lucho Gonzalez and the lethal Lisandro Lopez in attack. Porto have to knuckle down and get on with it but they don’t seem very inclined to do that currently, which is surprising and somewhat disappointing.

With Porto only having won once in their past three Liga Sagres games, it’s hard to see them taking too much confidence in to this game. They’ve failed to win four out of seven away games already this season and although they don’t concede many on the road, they don’t score many either. I think all of the above plays right into the hands of CD Nacional so there does look to be value in laying Porto for their trip to Madeira today.

Verdict: Lay Porto at 10/11.

Hamilton Academicals vs Celtic – lay Celtic at 2/1.

I can’t substantiate this bet anywhere near as much as I’d like to be frankly the value is too good to overlook. Celtic have won just once in their past four Premier League games and have been very unconvincing in all of them. They’ve even managed a draw with lowly Falkirk at home before losing at Hibs in their last game in a galling 2-1 defeat where Hibs stole the winner at the end of the game. Celtic are going from bad to worse at the moment so I think there’s more value going against them than for them.

Unfortunately, they’re facing Hamilton Academicals. Well, it’s unfortunate for me, that is, because if they were facing a better side then I’d be sticking a lot more on it. However, Hamilton are a pretty atrocious side which is also partially why the odds are good on this outcome. Hamilton’s 0-0 draw with Kilmarnock last match will probably count as a win in their books so their momentum should be pretty good. They have a poor home record and a nightmare head-to-head record against Celtic but they’re not likely to have a better chance of getting one over on Celtic than they do today. Celtic are too leaky in defence at the moment and aren’t scoring enough goals so I think it’s worth a cheeky bet to lay Celtic today, particularly as Hamilton are a very resilient side.

Verdict: Lay Celtic at 2/1.

Accmulator fodder – Armed Forces FC, Cardiff City, Milton Keynes Dons, Norwich City, Aldershot Town, Notts County, Girondins de Bordeaux, Bayern Munich, PAOK Salonika, Guadalajara, SL Benfica, Hibs, Barcelona, Hercules Alicante, Neath Athletic.

Recommended bet – Northampton Town, Norwich City, PAOK Salonika, Bayern Munich, and laying Real Madrid at 7/1.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

African Nations:

Nigeria vs Algeria (5) 1-1

Asian Champions League:

Da Nang vs Muang Thong United (5) 1-1
Armed Forces FC vs Sriwijaya FC Palembang (9) -1.75 handicap
Karama vs Al Wahda (6) 1-0

Argentinian Primera Division:

Tigre vs Chacarita Juniors (6) 1-1
Velez Sarsfeld vs Colon de Santa Fe (8) 2-1
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Rosario Central (5) 1-1
Atletico Tucuman vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (7) over 2.5 goals

Australian A-League:

Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United (7) 2-1
Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC (6) 0-1
North Queensland Fury vs Newcastle Jets (7) 1-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Club Brugge vs Westerlo (8) 2-0
Roeselare vs Racing Genk (7) 0-1
Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge (6) 1-1
Charleroi vs Lokeren (6) 1-0

Belgian Tweede Klasse:

Brussels vs Standaard Wetteren (7)
Beveren vs Oostende (8)
Turnhout vs Boussu Dour Borinage (6)
KVSK United vs Tubize (6)
Tournai vs Antwerp (8)

Colombian Futbol Profesional:

America de Cali vs Atletico Huila (6) 1-1
Millonarios Bogota vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-1
Independiente Medellin vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game

Cypriot Division 1:

Omonia Nicosia vs Apollon Limassol (8) 2-1
Aris Limassol vs Ermis (5) 1-1
A.E.Paphos vs Anorthosis Famagusta (6) 0-1

English Premier League:

Birmingham City vs Tottenham Hotspur (6) 1-1
Fulham vs Aston Villa (6) 1-1
Hull City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 2-1
Liverpool vs Bolton Wanderers (5) 0-0
West Ham United vs Blackburn Rovers (7) 1-1
Wigan Athletic vs Everton (7) over 2.5 goals
Burnley vs Chelsea (9) -1.75 handicap

English Championship:

Derby County vs Nottingham Forest (6) at least one red card in this game
Cardiff City vs Doncaster Rovers (8)
Coventry City vs Blackpool (6)
Crystal Palace vs Peterborough United (7)
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City (6)
Preston North End vs Ipswich Town (5)
Queens Park Rangers vs Scunthorpe United (6) over 2.5 goals
Reading vs Barnsley (5)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth Argyle (7)
Watford vs Swansea City (7)
West Bromwich Albion vs Sheffield United (6)
Leicester City vs Newcastle United (5)

English League One:

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Millwall (5)
Bristol Rovers vs Wycombe Wanderers (7)
Carlisle United vs Leyton Orient (6)
Charlton Athletic vs Tranmere Rovers (7)
Gillingham vs Walsall (7)
Leeds United vs Colchester United (5)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Exeter City (8)
Norwich City vs Hartlepool United (9)
Oldham Athletic vs Brentford (7)
Southampton vs Stockport County (8)
Southend United vs Swindon Town (6)
Yeovil Town vs Huddersfield Town (6)

English League Two:

Aldershot Town vs Grimsby Town (8)
Cheltenham Town vs Darlington (6)
Crewe Alexandra vs Bournemouth (6)
Lincoln City vs Dagenham & Redbridge (7)
Morecambe vs Chesterfield (6)
Northampton Town vs Burton Albion (8)
Notts County vs Barnet (9)
Port Vale vs Hereford United (6)
Rotherham United vs Macclesfield Town (7)
Shrewsbury Town vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Torquay United vs Bradford City (4)

Finnish Liiga Cup:

AC Oulu vs Jaro Pietarsaari (5) 1-0

French Ligue 1:

Girondins de Bordeaux vs Boulogne (9) -1.75 handicap
Stade Rennais vs Grenoble Foot (8) 2-0
LOSC Lille vs Racing Club Lens (7) over 2.5 goals
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Lorient (6) 1-1
AS Monaco vs OGC Nice (9) 3-1
Le Mans vs Toulouse (7) 0-0
Montpellier HSC vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 1-1

French Ligue 2:

Vannes OC vs Guingamp (5)

German Bundesliga:

Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Werder Bremen (5) 2-1
Eintracht Frankurt vs Koln (7) 1-0
Hertha BSC Berlin vs VFL Bochum (6) 1-1
Bayern Munich vs FSV Mainz 05 (8) under 2.5 goals
Hannover 96 vs Nurnberg (5) 0-0
Schalke 04 vs Hoffenheim (8) 1-0

German Bundesliga 2:

Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld (6)
Hansa Rostock vs Union Berlin (6)

Greek Super League:

Iraklis vs Kavala (6) under 2.5 goals
PAS Giannina vs Larissa (6) 1-1
PAOK Salonika vs Atromitos (9) 3-1

Greek B Ethniki:

Rhodos vs Anagennisi Karditsas (6)

International Friendly:

Jamaica vs Canada (6) 1-1

Italian Serie A:

Bari vs Palermo (7) 0-0
SSC Napoli vs Genoa (7) over 2.5 goals

Italian Serie B:

Cittadella vs Ancona (6)
Mantova vs Crotone (6)
Sassuolo vs Salernitana (8)
Triestina vs Piacenza (6)

Mexican Primera Division:

Jaguares vs Tigres UANL (5) 1-1
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Guadalajara vs Estudiantes Tecos (8) 2-0
Pachuca vs Atlante (7) 2-1
San Luis vs Morelia (7) 1-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam (5) 2-1
NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo (7) 1-0
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen (7) 1-0
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen (6) 1-1

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Naval de Maio vs Belenenses (6) under 2.5 goals
Uniao de Leiria vs Olhanense (7) 0-0
CD Nacional vs Porto (6) 1-1
SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes (8) over 2.5 goals

Portuguese Liga de Honra:

Estoril vs Oliveirense (6)

Scottish Premier League:

Hamilton Academicals vs Celtic (3) 1-1
Aberdeen vs Motherwell (7) 2-1
Hibs vs St.Mirren (8) 2-0
Kilmarnock vs Dundee United (6) 0-1
Rangers vs Falkirk (8) 2-1
St.Johnstone vs Hearts (6) 1-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Espanyol vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (7) 1-1
Sporting Gijon vs Barcelona (8) under 2.5 goals
Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Madrid (6) 2-1

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Hercules Alicante vs Castellon (8) under 2.5 goals
Real Sociedad vs Las Palmas (7)
Huesca vs Elche (6)
Levante vs Villarreal II (6)
Albacete vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6)
Cartagena vs Girona (7)

Spanish Segunda B:

Group 1:

Osasuna II vs Sestao River Club (7)
Barakaldo vs Palencia (5)

Group 3:

Barcelona II vs Gava (8)
Valencia II vs Sabadell (7)
Mallorca II vs Benidorm (5)

Turkish Super Lig:

Istanbul BB vs Kasimpasa (5) 2-1
Diyarbakirspor vs Trabzonspor (6) 0-1

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Deportivo Italia vs Yaracuyanos (8) 2-1

Welsh Premier League:

Newtown vs Carmarthen Town (6) 1-2
Welshpool Town vs Haverfordwest County (5) 0-1
Neath Athletic vs Newi Cefn Druids (8) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!