Before today’s preview, let us take a moment to sit and laugh at the Nigerian President, ironically named Goodluck Jonathan. Why? Well, he’s decided that his country’s poor showing at the 2010 World Cup is bad enough to launch a self-imposed ban on his nation from competing internationally for two years. Way to go, Jonathan! I’m sure your side can get better without playing anyone…

Anyway, today’s previewed game is the UEFA Europa League encounter between KR Reykjavik and Glentoran in Iceland. Hosts KR have had a mixed campaign but are still capable of doing the necessary damage today against under-strength and under-prepared Glentoran.

KR Reykjavik are real giants of Icelandic football but they show it so rarely that I had my doubts over this selection. However, the hosts do have a slight quality advantage, albeit less than most people expect, and they should do the job. They put in some heroic stints last season against Larissa and Basel respectively so they’re certainly a capable side. I think it’s fair to label the hosts tonight as “frustrating” as there’s ability but it’s often hidden behind defensive ineptitude. KR have been weak domestically this season for the above reasons but this competition will certainly take priority so they’ll be up for it, make no mistake. They’ve got some good attackers, most notably the giants Finnbogason and Baldvinsson, who are simply too big to defend against. Takefusa is scoring goals for fun, as ever, so KR at the very least look potent. I’m concerned about their defence – I can’t hide that – but they should score a few today.

So why I am so confident that they’ll beat the handicap today? Well, their Northern Irish opponents, Glentoran, have big problems here. They’re missing some key players, namely Burrows, Martyn, Nixon, Taylor, and Leeman. They’ve sold Gillespie, who was arguably their best player, and their manager has also moved on. Glentoran are giants of Northern Irish football but I really don’t expect a giant-esque display today as a result of the above. KR may not be firing on all cylinders but they’re at least mid-season – Glentoran haven’t played a competitive game for a couple of months now and look unlikely to be ready for this game. Glentoran haven’t scored an away goal in European football for four consecutive seasons and with the above in mind, I have doubts over the longevity of their claims to do so today, even with the assistance of a shaky KR defence.

All in all, the odds on handicapping the hosts tonight look tasty to me. I don’t expect this “secret” to last very long before the odds drop so I’d be swift here. I’ll be surprised if KR don’t win the game and although the handicap is more risky, there’s certainly value there. If KR can’t win this game by two goals or more then they’ve got problems, to be blunt, and I fully expect them to oblige.

Verdict: KR Reykjavik to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 8/5.

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Tunisia vs Botswana – under 2.5 goals at evens.

Under 2.5 goals at evens is an unbelievably generous price! I’ve no doubts at all that Tunisia are the better side but their biggest handicap is that since Santos went off the rails, they don’t score enough goals. They keep the ball well and they’re well-organised but they’re not great goalscorers. They’ve not scored more than twice in one game over their last eight home games in all competitions and the only sides that they have destroyed in recent times have been exceptionally weak sides like Seychelles and Sudan, something which Botswana are not. Botswana have a long way to go to be a force in Africa, admittedly, but their strength is not conceding goals. Botswana haven’t conceded more than twice in any of their last eight away games against African opponents and the last side to break that was the mighty Ivory Coast so it’s fair to say that they’ll give Tunisia a game today and it helps our cause that Botswana don’t score many either as I do expect Tunisia to ultimately win the game.

1/4 is way too short for Tunisia, despite them being the superior side. They’re good, but not that good nowadays. Botswana have increased in ability over the last couple of years and are now hard to beat, although they offer little goal threat themselves. I don’t think this will be the drubbing that the bookies expect so I find the odds on under 2.5 goals as being surprisingly generous today.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.

Ulisses Yerevan vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv – away win at 11/10.

This was close to being my bet of the day but I just favoured KR Reykjavik instead!

I don’t normally bet on Israeli sides but Bnei Yehuda have established themselves well in recent years, both domestically and in Europe. They were so difficult to play against last season in Europe as Simurq, Dinaburg Daugavpils, and Pacos de Ferreira all respectively discovered. Bnei Yehuda’s strength is in not conceding goals and they did that an amazing six times in eight European games last season with the only side to break that record being PSV Eindhoven, who won both legs of their tie with Bnei Yehuda 1-0, which again is impressive for the Israeli side. Bnei Yehuda won all of the other six games, which included three away games in Azerbaijan, Latvia, and Portugal respectively – not the easiest of locations! Bnei Yehuda are impossible to break down and they have a habit of getting a goal and keeping it to take a win. I admire them for not playing for the draw away from home so I’ll be taking a chance with them today.

Their hosts Ulisses are from Yerevan in Armenia. Armenian football is on the rise but Ulisses are not one of the sides spear-heading it; they’re simply good defensively. However, that is restricted to their domestic displays as they’ve never played European football before and could be in for a rude awakening today. They’ve got a mighty test against a relatively experienced and strong Bnei Yehuda side and I just don’t think they can do anything against them here. They know the have to attack the Israelis because they won’t get anything away from home and this should play perfectly into the hands of their opponents.

I expect a fairly dull and low-scoring game here but there has to be value in the away win with Bnei Yehuda as imposing as ever at the moment and inexperienced hosts Ulisses expected to present a threat to them today. There’s a big gap in ability here and I’m hoping that shows by the full-time whistle.

Verdict: Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv to win at 11/10.

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Flora Tallinn – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.

This should be a very interesting game indeed because although the Georgian hosts are the superior side, they don’t score enough goals. That immediately leads me to under 2.5 goals at 3/4 because I don’t see many goals occurring in this game as the superior side don’t score many as a rule and their Estonian visitors have improved a lot in recent years. Indeed, Flora haven’t conceded more than a goal away from home in European competition for three consecutive years despite taking on Brondby, Djurgarden, and Valerenga Oslo respectively. I don’t expect Flora to win this game today but I do expect stubborn and well-organised resistance from them, which is the only real reason that they’re doing so well in the Meistriliiga this season. Dinamo are a capable home side as they demonstrated by beating Serbian giants Red Star Belgrade at home in last season’s Europa League game and the giants of Georgian football are experienced in Europe so I won’t deny that they have a good chance of winning this game today.

However, Dinamo haven’t played a competitive game since May and Flora Tallinn are mid-season so match fitness favours the tricky visitors. Dinamo are marginally better than Flora but not as much as the odds suggest that they are, in my opinion. Therefore, I like the option of under 2.5 goals in this game today and history agrees with me. I’m also tempted to try a Draw/Dinamo Tbilisi half-time/full-time bet at 5/2 and perhaps even laying the hosts at 31/20 if I feel particularly bold as a 0-0 is possible here.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.

Rabotnicki Skopje vs Lusitanos – home win with -2.75 handicap at 6/4.

Macedonian football is beginning to balance out with the emergence of Renova and Milano Kumanovo in recent times, not to mention Metalurg Skopje. However, in my opinion, Rabotnicki are still the biggest and best side in the country and their atypical league placings support that theory. Rabotnicki’s strength is happily scoring goals, which they averaged doing nearly twice per home game domestically last season so I’ll give them their chances today. They’ve played in European football for three out of their last four campaigns so they’re certainly an experienced side. Their last two home games in European competition have seen them score an impressive seven goals against Crusaders of Northern Ireland and OB Odense of Denmark respectively so don’t doubt the Macedonian attack here, even if their defence can b a little rocky at times.

Visitors Lusitanos should really be the sacrificial lambs here today. It’s their first ever forage into European football and they’re about to learn that Andorran football is a long way from being near the standard of European competition in general, despite Andorran football actually improving in recent times. Lusitanos are not one of the bigger sides in Andorra; they’re chancers and are lucky to be here, basically – they got here because the sides that finished ahead of them in their domestic cup were already qualified for European competition. A side from Andorra is generally weak enough but this isn’t even one of the “good” sides so I really expect a humiliating result for the minnows today.

The worst-case scenario I can see occurring here is Rabotnicki scoring just twice but their recent record in Europe indicates that they’re scoring goals far more regularly and that is indeed a fundamental aspect of their domestic game so Rabotnicki should go all out to win this one today. I expect them to score at least three goals as a result and with that in mind, backing them to beat the -2.75 handicap at 6/4 looks a good bet for me today.

Verdict: Rabotnicki Skopje to win with a -2.75 goal handicap at 6/4.

Trans Narva vs MyPa Anjalankoski – home win with draw no bet at 13/8.

Sadly, the bookies have beaten me to this one thanks to big public interest, which is a shame, as they’ve now priced the laying of MyPa at an unattractive 8/11, the clever bastards.

However, not to be deterred, I’ve decided to back the home win with draw no bet. Why? Well, Trans Narva are a good side. They’re currently one of the top three/four sides in Estonia and are particularly difficult to play against at home. They don’t score as many as they should at home but don’t underestimate them for that reason – they’re a good side and have eased into the groove left by TVMK Tallinn a couple of years ago far better than any of their contemporaries so it’s worthwhile not underestimating them. Trans Narva were embarrassed twice by Slovenia’s Rudar Velenje in last year’s forage into the Europa League but they’ll have learned from the experience and arguably boast a better side this time around so I’ll give them their chances today, particularly as they’re mid-season domestically so they do bring some momentum into the game.

Visitors MyPa Anjalankoski should have too much for the visitors but I highly doubt it. They’re unbelievably dull and impotent and may well be exposed against their Baltic rivals Trans Narva today. Sadly, MyPa do bring some momentum into the game from their win at IFK Mariehamn in the Veikkausliiga last week but they’ve still got a tough game ahead of them today. MyPa’s predominant flaw is being too boring not scoring enough goals as seven goals scored in six away games in the Veikkausliiga this season indicates all too well. MyPa don’t concede many, to their credit, but they’re such a droll side that it’s impossible to fancy them to win games like this, particularly when their opponents treat this game as a derby. MyPa have been woeful in Europe previously, even drawing in the Faroe Islands against EB/Streymur back in 2007 during their last entry to European football. MyPa’s football is partially effective in Finland; it’s rarely effective in Europe, however, so I fancy an energetic and capable Trans Narva to cause them a lot of problems today.

As I touched upon briefly earlier – I’d prefer to lay MyPa but there’s no value in doing so at 8/11 so I’m far more interested in taking the home win with draw no bet odds of 13/8 today.

Verdict: Trans Narva to win with draw no bet at 13/8.

Shakhter Karagandy vs Ruch Chorzow – under 2.5 goals at evens.

Kazakh hosts Shakhter Karagandy are currently mid-season whereas Polish visitors Ruch Chorzow haven’t played a competitive game in months so immediately there’s a match fitness advantage for the hosts. I don’t fully grasp why the hosts are so long to win this one, to be perfectly honest. Kazakh football has sky-rocketed over the past two/three years and Shakhter have been one of the leading sides in that field with previous European experience coming against Hungarian giants Debreceni VSC back in 2008, drawing at home and losing away in a narrow 2-1 aggregate defeat. Shakhter have improved since then and frankly Kazakhstan is never an easy venue for an away game at any level so I expect a hostile atmosphere today. The hosts are traditionally strong at home domestically anyway so they’ve got to fancy their chances today and I do too, to be honest!

Visitors Ruch Chorzow haven’t played in European competition for ten years now but they’ve earned the right to be here thanks to some inspired displays in the Ekstraklasa last season. Ruch have been widely accredited with playing some of the best football in Poland and I wouldn’t disagree with that although I would question the effectiveness of it, particularly with European inexperience playing a big part in today’s outcome. Ruch did well away from home domestically last season because they averaged scoring and conceded just over a goal per game so generally speaking, they have low-scoring encounters on the road. I can’t envision their approach for this game being any different as they should be able to overcome their slightly inferior hosts in the return leg.

Ruch are the better side here but they’re also inexperienced and they’re playing at an intimidating venue. The hosts don’t score enough and home and the visitors don’t concede enough for me to take a chance on the generous odds available on the home win. However, the bet on the unders looks decidedly interesting as I can’t see many goals in this one due to the above information so that’s my recommended bet here.

During the transfer window, Ruch lost Baran Scherfchen, and Niedzialan (quite a big loss!) and have only signed nomadic striker Seb Olszar from Piast Gliwice so they’ve made losses over the transfer window overall. Ruch miss Bronowicki for this game and there are doubts over Sadlok, who was supposedly violently sick before the side left for Kazakhan so there are rumours afoot that he’ll miss the game. Karagandy have bigger players than Ruch en mass so set pieces favour the hosts today. All in all, I’d say 1X for the game but the value is in going under 2.5 goals in my eyes.

Bit of history for you guys – the last time these two sides met was in 1963. It’s the only time the two clubs have ever met and as Ruch won the game, Shakhter were banned from continental football for two years by the Soviet Union!

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.

KF Tirana vs Zalaegerszegi TE - away win at evens, over 2.5 goals at evens.

KF Tirana are one of the giants of Albanian football along with Dinamo Tirana. They’re experienced in European competition and any away game in Tirana is a tough one, particularly against a side like KF. The hosts didn’t have a great campaign last season by their lofty standards due to conceding too many goals at home but still just made it into European competition this year. Frankly, a year without European football for the hosts is beyond disappointing so it’s fortunate that they’ve managed to qualify again! Barring their 2008 campaign, KF Tirana have played in European football every year since 2004 so don’t underestimate them here. They’ve scored in both of their last two home games in European football against Domzale of Slovenia and Stabaek of Norway respectively, losing once and drawing once. Tirana still have some way to go before they can beat the likes of those teams but they usually manage a token goal at home and I expect them to get that against a shaky ZTE defence today.

Zalaegerszegi TE impressed me massively last season with their flambuoyant attacking football so full credit goes to them. Whoever they face, ZTE always look a potent threat and I don’t see that style changing for their trip to Albania today. ZTE haven’t played in Europe for eight years now so they may be a tad inexperienced but with the “new Maris Verpakovskis” leading their line in attack (Artoms Rudnevs) it’s hard to see them not scoring here. Everything ZTE do is fashioned around scoring goals as they don’t defend well so I expect them to score at least twice here, although I do fear for their lack of experience against such an experienced host in a difficult venue.

However, the odds are good enough to take a chance on here. I prefer the over 2.5 goals call rather than the away win although I’d be lying if I said that I didn’t like both because I do. Hell, if you feel lucky then combine both of them – should make good odds! I cannot envision for one moment this game going under 2.5 goals because Tirana have to attack as they don’t travel well and ZTE cannot possibly try defending here because they can’t do it well enough. Therefore, over 2.5 goals beckons and the away win should too. 

Verdict: Zalaegerszegi TE to win at evens, over 2.5 goals at evens.

Torpedo Zhodino vs Fylkir Reykjavik – lay Torpedo Zhodino at 10/11.

This is riskier than it looks but I like it nonetheless. Zhodino are better than their league placing in the Vysshaya Liga suggests because of their tenacity but the fact is that morale is extremely low following a bad run of form and thus the team are suffering. Without their insatiable spirit, Zhodino are generally quite weak, which is what I’m counting on here because they are the better team between these two outfits. Zhodino are leaking nearly two goals per home game on average at the moment and look suspect as a result because they don’t score enough goals. They’ve lost four out of their last five games so they should be safe enough to lay today from a morale perspective, particularly considering that they’ve not even scored a goal for three consecutive games.

However, I wouldn’t touch this bet had Fylkir not broken their own poor run at weekend by beating in-form UMF Grindavik in the Urvalsdeild. Fylkir are a good side but they’ve rocketed down the table domestically after some lacklustre displays and abject defending. However, that win will have given them a boost and it’s at a key time too so I’ll give them their chances. This game will mean a lot to them financially so I can see high motivation here, particularly as their hosts may just favour trying to stay in their domestic rather than competing in a second-rate European competition.

Either way, the value for this game is surely in laying the hosts as they’re too short by my reckoning. I’ll agree that Torpedo Zhodino are the better side but they’re doing absolutely nothing to prove that at the moment so I’ll give Fylkir a chance of getting a draw or possibly even a win here today at decent odds of 10/11.

Verdict: Lay Torpedo Zhodino at 10/11.

Zestaponi vs Faetano – home win with -3.75 handicap at 13/8.

I rarely take on such handicaps, particularly with atypically-impotent Georgian sides, but Zestaponi are an exception to the rule. They score goals for fun due to their attacking style and they’ve got good experience in this competition following two consecutive years of European football. They drubbed Northern Ireland’s Lisbury Distillery 6-0 here last year and followed that result up with a 1-2 defeat at home to Swedish giants Helsingborgs, impressively drawing the return leg 2-2 though. One thing that Zestaponi bring to the game is goals, which really makes them rather un-Georgian but also interesting to take on the handicap.

Visitors Faetano have never played in European football before – oh dear! This is their maiden voyage and they’ve unfortunately been drawn against a side that love nothing more than to score plenty of goals, even to the point of exhaustion. Little Faetano have got a lot of problems here and the game hasn’t even started yet! They’ve got an awful lot of old and slow players that their youthful and pacey hosts should have a lot of joy against. I can’t reveal much more here other than Faetano are cannon fodder and should lose this game comfortably today.

Verdict: Zestaponi to win with -3.75 handicap at 13/8.

TPS Turku vs Port Talbot Town – home win with -1.75 handicap at 5/6.

This is a risky call as I don’t rate TPS’ attack too much as they rely excessively on Johansson. However, TPS remain a good side and they’re light years ahead of Wales’ surprise package Port Talbot Town. TPS boast plenty of experience ability in comparison to their lowly opponents and I’m hoping it shines through today. Goalscoring is not the forté of TPS Turku on a general level but they’re facing a side that is some distance below their general level so they should be able to beat the handicap today. It’s the first appearance in European football for either club so neither side has an experience advantage in this competition, although TPS do have more players that have played in this type of game before so I favour TPS here. Also consider that TPS Turku are mid-season and Port Talbot haven’t played a competitive game for many weeks now so that’s another advantage for the hosts.

There’s a risk element with the handicap here but Port Talbot are poor enough to allow it to happen and TPS should have just enough to see it done. Odds are a bit longer than they should be for this selection so I’m happy to handicap TPS today at 5/6.

Verdict: TPS Turku to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 5/6.

Nitra vs Gyori ETO FC – lay Nitra at 10/11.

I don’t understand why Slovakians Nitra are so short to win this game. This is their first experience of European football and they’re far from a giant in their native country. Nitra have a carefree, attacking football style that I admire because they score goals rather than play out boring games. However, with that admiration comes fear for them as they concede far too many goals. With the above in mind, I can’t really explain why Nitra are so short for this game. The Corgon Liga is not massively ahead of the Soproni Liga in ability nor clubs. In fact, I’d say they’re about even given the dramatic increase of Hungarian football of late so again – I’m at a loss to explain why Nitra are so short to win this game today.

I’m a big fan of Gyori ETO FC – there’s a lot of ability in this side. Unlike their hosts, they’re not a flambuoyant side, particularly not away from home – they’re a side that is built primarily of a solid defence. No side conceded as few goals as they did in the Soproni Liga last season with Gyori averaging conceding just over a goal per every two away games. Gyori don’t score many goals as a result but they’re still a very hard side to beat, hence just three away defeats for the Hungarians last season domestically. Unlike their hosts today, Gyori do have experience in European football with their memorable displays in 2008 against Zestaponi of Georgia and VFB Stuttgart of Germany so the Hungarians so have a slight advantage here.

Either way, I cannot accept that Nitra are so short for this game. They’re not good enough nor proven enough to be such heavy favourites against a partially experienced but very strong opponent, particularly one that specialises in keeping other sides out. I can see a low-scoring game here but the option of laying the hosts at 10/11 has too much value to be overlooked today, in my opinion.

Verdict: Lay Nitra at 10/11.

Sibenik vs Sliema Wanderers – under 2.5 goals at 9/5.

Bargain or what?! Maltese football is far from the pinnacle of European football but their game is advancing and sides from Malta are generally harder to beat nowadays. Sliema Wanderers emphasised that last season when they took on Sibenik’s fellow Prva Liga outfit Slaven Korpivnica, losing 1-0 on aggregate after two hard-fought legs. Sliema will travel to Croatia with the sole intent of not losing the game and to be fair, they’ve got a decent chance because they’re facing a side that over-achieved last season, a side that has never played European football before. Sliema have played European football for three out of their last four years; they know what it’s all about. Sliema don’t offer a substantial goal threat but that suits my bet much more than it hinders it. You see, Sibenik did very well last season because they were hard to beat but the handicap that is hidden within that is that they simply don’t score goals – it’s not part of their play en mass. They only just averaged scoring over a goal per home game in the Prva Liga last season because they’re frankly not good enough to score more. I think they’re well-organised enough tactically to beat Sliema today with the right breaks but they’re certainly not worth the odds that they’re at. I’m astounded that the bookies have priced the under 2.5 goals call so generously in a game between two sides that just don’t like scoring goals, two sides that don’t have light years of ability to separate them! With the above in mind, going under 2.5 goals in this game could very well be a nice earner today.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/5.

Anorthosis Famagusta vs Banants - away win with +1.75 handicap at 21/20.

I’m dumbfounded here; where do the bookies get 2/11 on an Anorthosis win from? They’ve never been the same since Georgian manager Temur Ketsbaia left to coach Olympiakos Piraeus and the dominance of the Nicosia clubs domestically last season emphasised that perfectly. Cypriot football is unquestionably on the rise and I cannot deny that Anorthosis have a lot of experienced players in their team. However, they’re simply not that good a side! Do you remember their fixtures against Montenegro’s Petrovac last season? Petrovac had never played European football before but they claimed an away goal in a 2-1 defeat in Cyprus and won the return leg in extra-time, which is frankly unacceptable for Anorthosis if they intend to prove that they’re a bigger side than they’re supposed to be. The fact is that Anorthosis aren’t as good as they think they are, despite their brief stint in the UEFA Champions League in 2008. I rate Anorthosis but not to the level that the bookies do!

Visitors Banants front the Armenian football cause and have done for some time with seven consecutive years in European football. They’re arguably the biggest side in Armenia following the demise of Ararat Yerevan and their record of ten wins in thirteen domestic games this season emphasises the dominance that they hold in Armenia. They’ve got great experience and as I mentioned earlier – Armenian football is definitely on the rise, if only in preventing other sides from beating them, so I certainly wouldn’t underestimate the visitors today. Banants are mid-season currently so match fitness aids them more than their overrated hosts. Banants went out of the Europa League last season to Siroki Brijeg of Bosnia-Herzegovina but it should be noted that Banants won the away leg of that encounter 1-0 so again – don’t underestimate them here.

Armenian football has been exposed to more outside influences over the past few years and it’s the likes of Brazilians Beto and Du Bala that has propelled Banants into being the dominant side in Armenia so they should play key roles here today. All in all – don’t write off the visitors here. The odds given on a win for the visitors with a +1.75 goal head start are unbelievably good and I’m even tempted to lay the hosts at 31/20 because this game could very easily end 0-0 today.

Verdict: Banants to win with +1.75 handicap at 21/20.

Randers vs F91 Dudelange – home win with -2.75 handicap at 5/6.

This one really speaks for itself. Randers were terrific towards the end of the Superligaen last season thanks to insatiable spirit and determination. They should never have been battling relegation to begin with as they’re a good side and we should see that side of their game today. They’re more than capable of scoring a lot of goals against sides so their minnow opponents from Luxembourg could turn into the sacrificial lambs today. Dudelange are big domestically but certainly not outside of their country. Randers have some experience in this competition from their long run last year and Dudelange have played in Europe for years so neither side really has a benefit experience-wise. Ability-wise, however – Randers should realistically stroll this game 3-0 or 4-0 at least. I can’t believe that the odds on them to beat the -2.75 goal handicap are as generous as 5/6 but I’m happy to take it.

Verdict: Randers to beat the -2.75 goal handicap at 5/6.

NSI Runavik vs Gefle – home win with +1.75 handicap at 6/5.

This is a very risky call but one I think should bear fruit. Why? Well, as superior as Gefle are to Faroese NSI Runavik, the visitors are notorious for being a physical side that doesn’t tend to score many goals – just to keep other sides out. Gefle haven’t even averaged scoring a goal per game so far in the Allsvenskan this season because of the above but they don’t concede many either. For seven out of nine away games in all competitions this season, Gefle would have lost by the handicap advantage that I am giving to NSI Runavik today and whereas I won’t deny that they’ve generally faced better opponents than their hosts today, the fact remains that Gefle don’t score many goals and would quite happily take a 1-0 win away from this game given chance because they know they won’t lose at home. Gefle’s last forage into European football saw them claim a goalless draw in Wales against Llanelli in 2006 so don’t be surprised if Gefle don’t turn up today. After all, hosts NSI Runavik are mid-season in the Meistaradeildin and are playing very well indeed by all accounts with nine wins and one draw from their last ten games. They’re scoring goals for fun and managed to given Norwegian giants Rosenborg BK a few scares in their dual last season so don’t underestimate the hosts here.

The bookies love to set traps up for punters to handicap against weaker sides like NSI Runavik purely because they’re from one of the weaker footballing nations. Maybe they’re right to do so but I don’t think so for this game. Gefle don’t score enough goals to concern me and I fancy NSI to sneak a goal themselves so giving the hosts a +1.75 goal head start at generous odds of 6/5 looks very intriguing indeed.

Verdict: NSI Runavik to win with +1.75 handicap at 6/5.

Llanelli vs Tauras Taurage – home win at 6/5.

I’m pleased to see that the odds have balance out a lot more fairly now with Llanelli being favourites to win. When they first game out, Lithuanian newcomers Tauras were favourites to win this game, which had me baffled, to be honest. Tauras aren’t that good a side and they’re certainly not one of the best in their own country, let alone in Europe! They’ve never played in European competition before and although they have the advantage of being mid-season domestically, they’re simply not that good a side. Don’t get me wrong – Llanelli aren’t world-beaters but they’ve got a good level of experience in European competition and they stunned Scottish side Motherwell last season by winning against them in Scotland so underestimating them would be foolish. I think we’ll see a good game here between two decent sides but I have to favour the experienced hosts against the minnows from the Baltic state of Lithuania - I just don’t see enough quality in Tauras’ side to cause damage to Llanelli today so the odds on the home win look tempting, particularly as Tauras aren’t good goalscorers in general.

Verdict: Llanelli to win at 6/5.

Accumulator fodder:

Rabotnicki Skopje, Zestafoni, TPS Turku, Randers, Kalmar, KR Reykjavik.

Recommended bets:

KR Reykjavik -1.75, Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv, and Rabotnicki Skopje at 4/1.

Randers -2.75, Zalaegerszegi TE, and Trans Narva DNB at 7/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!

African Cup Of Nations Qualifiers:

Chad vs Togo (6) 0-1, draw no bet
Tunisia vs Botswana (7) under 2.5 goals

UEFA Europa League:

Ulisses Yerevan vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv (7) 0-1
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Flora Tallinn (6) under 2.5 goals
Laci vs Dnepr Mogilev (5) 0-0
Tobol Kostanai vs Zrinjski Mostar (6) 2-1
Rabotnicki Skopje vs Lusitanos (9) -2.75 handicap
Trans Narva vs MyPa Anjalankoski (6) 2-1
Shakhter Karagandy vs Ruch Chorzow (5) under 2.5 goals
KF Tirana vs Zalaegerszegi TE (6) over 2.5 goals
Torpedo Zhodino vs Fylkir Reykjavik (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Zeta Golubovci vs Dacia Chisinau (7) 0-0
Olimpia Balti vs Khazar Lenkoran (5) 1-1
Zestaponi vs Faetano (10) -3.75 handicap
TPS Turku vs Port Talbot Town (8) 2-0
Qarabagh vs Metalurg Skopje (7) 2-1
Nitra vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 1-1
Sibenik vs Sliema Wanderers (7) under 2.5 goals
Santa Coloma vs Mogren Budva (8) -1.75 handicap
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Banants (6) 0-0
Randers vs F91 Dudelange (10) -2.75 handicap
Portadown vs Skonto Riga (4) under 2.5 goals
CS Grevenmacher vs Dundalk (6) under 2.5 goals
NSI Runavik vs Gefle (7) both sides to score
Llanelli vs Tauras Taurage (5) 2-1
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Siroki Brijeg (4) 1-1
Kalmar FF vs EB/Streymur (8) 3-1
KR Reykjavik vs Glentoran (8) -1.75 handicap

Singaporean S-League:

Gombak United vs Woodlands Wellington (6) 2-1
Balestier Khalsa vs Home United (6) 0-1

Swedish Superettan:

Angelholm vs Assyriska Sodertalje (7) under 2.5 goals

Enjoy your free betting tips!