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Today’s featured game isn’t in the UEFA Champions League, surprisingly, although that was a difficult decision as there are some good bets in the competition today. Today’s game is in the Adeccoligaen and features Hamarkamaratene and Honefoss. The hosts are a prime example of just how close this division actually is. They’re currently fifth from bottom but there are only two Adeccoligaen sides that have won more home games than they have! They’re a good side and capable of matching any of the Adeccoligaen sides on their way. Excepting a defeat by high-flying Sogndal, Hamarkamaratene have won five out of their last five home games. Visitors Honefoss claimed a good win at home to promotion rivals Kongsvinger last match but the fact cannot be evaded that they’ve not won any of their last three away games as they’ve lost twice and drawn once. I’ll give them their dues for losing away to Haugesund, who are easily the best home side in the division, but a crushing 4-0 defeat at Moss and miserly 2-2 draw at Stavanger has left me unconvinced with their away form. Neither of these two sides have revealing form at the present time other than to indicate that they’re both somewhat random! However, I’m going to take the home win at 11/10 because the hosts still have players worthy of playing in the Tippeligaen, they’re virtually untouchable at home and they average scoring just under three goals per game on their own turf. Those facts aren’t going to sit well with an under-pressure Honefoss side that aren’t being consistent enough at the present time. So yeah, suffice to say that there appears to be good value in a home win here.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Hamarkamaratene vs Honefoss BK – home win at 11/10 – see introduction for full details.
Juventus vs Girondins de Bordeaux – laying Juventus at 7/5 . I’m sure I don’t need to point out to you all that this is a risky call but I’ll do so nonetheless. However, as usual, I do have my reasons. The fundamental reasoning is that Italian sides are falling further and further behind other nations in European football and it’s really starting to show in a lot of the games in both the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Cup/UEFA Europa League. People might be getting carried away by Juventus claiming very good victories away to an out-of-sorts AS Roma and a good Lazio but it just seems to be that Diego is saving them in a lot of games. He’s capable of doing that tonight, the immense talent that he is, but rumour has it that he’s out with an injury. If he plays, feel free to disregard this bet but if he doesn’t then give it some thought. The hosts are an ok outfit but don’t have too many players that would walk into the Girondins de Bordeaux squad and vice versa. I’ve an awful lot of respect for Laurent Blanc’s Girondins de Bordeaux because they give everyone a game no matter where they play them. I watched them away to title rivals Olympique de Marseille a few games ago and was impressed then too. Blanc has his side working very hard and being efficient in front of goal too. They’ve got match-winners in Gourcuff, Cavenaghi and Chamakh. If we learned anything from Girondins de Bordeaux last season then it’s that they are difficult to play against, particularly when you consider that today’s hosts play a slower style, the proper Italian way. The visitors are more experienced in Europe this year and whereas I don’t think they’ll win, I do think there’s a chance they’ll get a draw here, particularly if the rumours are correct and Diego is missing. Laying Juventus at 7/5 is bold but potentially worthwhile.
VFL Wolfsburg vs CSKA Moscow – home win at 4/5, over 2.5 goals at 5/6. This should be one hell of a clash and not for good reasons. CSKA Moscow have just sacked Zico and appointed Juande Ramos as new manager. They’ve loaned star striker Vagner Love backed to Palmeiras in Brazil due to personal issues which leaves them looking very lightweight in attack. They’ve got potential talents for the future – Ricardo Jesus, Maazou, Necid – but not many for now. They’ve loaned Brazilian starlet Guilherme from Dynamo Kiev and he is an exceptional talent. I feel this guy is gonna be massive in years to come and has already proven his worth by scoring twice on his debut at home to Krylya Sovetov Samara in the Premier League at weekend. However, this is in the future moreso than the present as he’s not developed that consistency yet and has very little European experience. To me, this makes the visitors look likely to end up not winning this game, particularly as their midfielders like Dzagoev and Krasic aren’t scoring as often as they used to. Hosts VFL Wolfsburg impressed everyone last season with some fantastic displays and great goalscoring displays. However, enter their biggest problem; they cannot defend for shit. They concede a lot of goals and they’re currently on an abysmal run in the Bundesliga. That said, they’re still a massive goalscoring side even in defeat so we have a very interesting setup here. One thing I am feeling is that over 2.5 goals at 5/6 is in the bag ’cause the hosts score for fun and can’t defend. They generally attain this statistic in any game they play against anyone so I don’t see that changing on their European debut, particularly when any of the three sides in this group – Besiktas, Wolfsburg and CSKA Moscow – are capable of claiming runners-up behind Manchester United. That might seem presumptious, but can you really see an alternative here? The visitors will be buoyant from their victory at weekend and Ramos will be giving them the benefit of his European experience so I’m sure they’ll at least be partially organised and may score against a defensively prone VFL Wolfsburg. However, the home win also looks good at 4/5 ’cause I think the hosts are more potent goalscorers than the visitors. It sounds basic, but that’s what it is in essence. Russian sides generally don’t travel well and the hosts will be eager to make a good start to European football and they’re more than capable of doing it at 4/5.
FC Zurich vs Real Madrid – over 3.5 goals at 5/4, both sides to score at 5/6. This is another fascinating tie! Real Madrid’s fantastic attack face the slightly less notorious FC Zurich attack but both of which are very potent. Neither side can keep a clean sheet in general but both score an awful lot of goals wherever they play. Don’t get me wrong, the hosts aren’t a match for the visitors, regardless of how you look at it. I’m constantly reading “remember CFR Cluj and BATE Borisov and Anorthosis Famagusta last year?” – yeah, I remember that they all went out in the group stages! The sides that they beat underestimated them (note that Italian sides were the ones that tended to struggle against these teams) but Manuel Pellegrini is a good manager and doesn’t underestimate his opponents hence Villarreal’s success despite remaining a small club. FC Zurich are good enough to score in this game but they’ll never keep Real Madrid out. For the above reasons, over 3.5 goals at 5/4 looks one of the best calls of the day and both sides to score at 5/6 also looks good.
Olympique de Marseille vs AC Milan – home win at 7/5. This is a call I’ve been waiting to make ever since I saw the draw ’cause I think these two sides are about on par nowadays. Olympique de Marseille play football that AC Milan hate playing against; fast and tenacious. The hosts have started this season exceptionally well with their new signings bedding well into the squad. They’ve looked potent and dangerous, particularly with the lightning Niang up front who actually reminds me of Thierry Henry on occasion. AC Milan have looked weak since summer and who is surprised? Their ageing squad has aged another year, they’ve lost superstar Kaka, and now their hopes are pinned on a very young but oustanding striker – Pato. They’ve taken a beating off bitter rivals Internazionale already, losing 4-0, and managed to draw 0-0 at newly-promoted Livorno recently. Livorno is a pretty intimidating place to go, don’t get me wrong, but the hosts had just sold their best player to West Ham United and the visitors still couldn’t score past them. I rate the hosts as a good, confident side at the present time and I think AC Milan will do well to even get a draw here. 7/5 on a home win here looks beyond tempting.
Chelsea vs Porto – both sides to score at 11/10. I don’t think there’s any doubt in anyone’s mind that Chelsea will win this game ’cause of the talent available to them, their highly impressive current form and the managerial experience of Carlo Ancelotti. However, let’s not look too far beyond Porto here who are always there or thereabouts in Europe. Somehow, they manage to sell a lot of players in summer each year and continue without them the following year. This year, however, they’ve made their biggest losses for a long time, at least in my opinion. Cissokho, Lisandro Lopez and Lucho Gonzalez all moved to France but Porto are still playing well, somehow! Falcao is making the impression I expected him to and scoring goals for fun, as is the team in general. Porto don’t have a great defence – I don’t think they ever have – but they are very potent goalscorers so I do think they’re capable of stealing a goal tonight. For those reasons, both sides to score at 11/10 does look intriguing.
Atletico Madrid vs APOEL Nicosia - lay Atletico Madrid at 4/1. This is easily the riskiest call I’ve made in a long time but I’m liking it! Atletico Madrid have done what they do best so far in their domestic campaign – be completely unpredictable despite the vast array of talent available to them. Why? Who knows? They managed to lose a poor Malaga side 3-0 and draw at home to a Racing Club de Santander side that suffered a 4-1 humiliation at home on the opening day of the Primera Liga against a semi-decent Getafe side! All in all, we’ve got a talented but extremely unreliable side here. Now, if you’re any kind of follower of European football, then you’ll know how much of an impression Cypriot sides have made in recent times on the European game. Anorthosis Famagusta, APOEL Nicosia and Omonia Nicosia have proved tough nuts to crack for various big sides. Visitors APOEL Nicosia are a good side, better than most people will expect. The odds on a home win here are frighteningly low, which baffles me because Atletico Madrid have looked anything but likely to win this game. The visitors will be organised and hard to play so they’re capable of taking a draw away from this game. Laying Atletico Madrid at 4/1 could be very profitable providing the hosts don’t turn up, which also seems likely given their current state of affairs.
Coventry City vs Sheffield United – away win at 6/5. An impressive start sees Sheffield United still unbeaten with three wins in their last five games. Their most impressive feature is that they rarely concede, something a gritty Coventry City will have the work cut out breaking through. The hosts haven’t won a game in four now, losing twice and drawing twice. Despite a good start, their true colours are beginning to shine through and I can’t see them not losing this game today. Sheffield United are grinding out wins without particularly special performances so I expect more of the same today. The away win at 6/5 looks favourable here, particularly if you consider that Sheffield United have won here the last four seasons in a row!
Leicester City vs Peterborough United – home win at 4/5. Despite a draw at Queens Park Rangers last match, Peterborough United still haven’t convinced me that they’re good enough to take points off good sides. Queens Park Rangers are annonymous and unpredictable at the best of times so their draw didn’t completely surprise me although I will confess I did back a home win. The visitors still conceded too many goals and don’t score enough. Hosts Leicester City have done enough in their campaign so far to earn respect for being hard to beat and being efficient. The hosts won their last game at home to Blackpool and have won three from three at home so far. Peterborough United aren’t good enough to get anything here so 4/5 on the home win looks good to me.
Scunthorpe United vs Preston North End – away win at 13/8. Unbeaten Preston North End boast a similar record to Sheffield United and don’t differentiate greatly from the Yorkshire side in terms of quality either. Scunthorpe United won a convincing 4-0 away to Crystal Palace last match but I’m not reading much into that because a beating like that has been on the cards for some time for a youthful Crystal Palace – they just don’t have the resources or players to compete. Scunthorpe United can be potent occasionally but an organised and consistent Preston North End should be able to win this quite easily and seem an almost unbelievably good price at 13/8.
Flora Tallinn vs Levadia Tallinn - away win at 6/5. Unconvincing form from Flora Tallinn lately has cost me so I’m going to attempt to win on betting against them this time with the ever-reliable, consistent and in-form Levadia Tallinn. Needless to say that these two sides are bitter rivals so do approach with caution but Levadia Tallinn have established themselves as the better side from these two over the past season or so with two wins over their bitter rivals, both home and away. The gap between the two sides is increasing and this seems the opportune moment to captialise on it. The away win at 6/5 looks a really good bet here!
Vasby United vs Jonkopings Sodra – home win at 6/5. More dubious calls, I hear you say? Sure, why not! Hosts Vasby United are currently battling relegation but are playing better football than their league placing indicates, particularly at home. They’ve only lost two of their last five games but they’ve won three out of their last three home games and they know they need as many points as they can get currently. Visitors Jonkopings Sodra are on a downward spiral currently with three defeats in their last five games and have conceded thirteen goals in their last five games. They’re far too leaky and out of form to claim a result here despite possessing an arguably better team. They’ve been humiliated by lesser sides than Vasby United lately i.e. Sirius Uppsala so I think taking a home win here at 6/5 could prove to be worthwhile.
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Juventus vs Girondins de Bordeaux (4) 1-1
Maccabi Haifa vs Bayern Munich (7) 0-2
VFL Wolfsburg vs CSKA Moscow (7) 2-1
Besiktas vs Manchester United (8) 0-2
FC Zurich vs Real Madrid (9) over 3.5 goals, both sides to score
Olympique de Marseille vs AC Milan (6) 2-1
Chelsea vs Porto (8) 2-1 both sides to score
Atletico Madrid vs APOEL Nicosia (4) 1-1
Copa Nissan Sudamericana:
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Tigre (7) 2-0
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Alianza Atletico Sullana (6) 1-0
Chinese Super League:
Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai (7) 2-0
English Championship:
Coventry City vs Sheffield United (7)
Derby County vs Barnsley (6)
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest (7)
Leicester City vs Peterborough United (8)
Plymouth Argyle vs Watford (7)
Scunthorpe United vs Preston North End (7)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Middlesbrough (8)
Swansea City vs Bristol City (6)
West Bromwich Albion vs Doncaster Rovers (9)
Queens Park Rangers vs Crystal Palace (6)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Tallinn vs Levadia Tallinn (7) both sides to score, over 2.5 goals
Finnish Kakkonen:
Lokho A:
Kiffen vs HIFK Soccer Helsinki (7)
Icelandic Landsbankadeild Karla:
Fram Reykjavik vs Fjolnir Reykjavik (8) 3-1
Italian Serie B:
Reggina vs Vicenza (6)
Sassuolo vs Triestina (7)
Padova vs Piacenza (6)
Norwegian Adeccoligaen:
Hamarkamaratene vs Honefoss BK (7) both sides to score, over 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
Heart of Midlothian vs Kilmarnock (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Young Lions vs DPMM FC (6) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orgryte vs Halmstads (5) 1-0
Swedish Superettan:
Vasby United vs Jonkopings Sodra (7)
Atvidabergs vs Assyriska Sodertalje (6)
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