Before I begin today’s preview, I feel I have to vent some frustration regarding the English FA. I mean, what kind of idiots are they? These money-driven wankers do nothing but fuck up English sides in Europe. There’s dozens upon dozens of examples but today’s example is Fulham. Fulham compete in the English Premier League, which is a league that is competed over saturday and sunday each week for approximately 90% of each season. However, the English FA have decided to put Fulham vs Hull City on a monday night – just three days before the London-based club host Italian giants AS Roma. Is it just me or does this seem completely stupid? They could have moved Blackburn Rovers vs Burnley or Wigan Athletic vs Manchester City or even Stoke City vs West Ham United to the monday night in an exchange to allow Fulham to prepare for arguably the biggest game in their existence, but no, the money-grabbing wankers decide to fuck things up – as usual. Roy Hodgson may not be embracing the UEFA Europa League as much as he possibly should but you try telling me there’s a Fulham fan that won’t be looking forward to locking horns with one of Italy’s elite – AS Roma. Honestly, it’s absolute bullshit what the English FA concoct and I don’t think that it’s a coincidence that “FA” in English slang terms actually means “fuck all” – it seems a fine representation of what the English “FA” actually do for the clubs they’re supposed to put first. I may not be a Fulham fan but words cannot express my anger at such a shambolic association.
Anyway, today’s previewed game is in Ligue 2 between Nantes and Metz. Atypically, I’d expect these two sides to take each encounter between them right to the wire because both have very capable squads. However, recently-relegated Nantes have made a far better impression in Ligue 2 than experienced Metz have with the hosts having won five out of eight games so far, tasting defeat just once. Their home record shows what a force they are with four wins from four games, as well as averaging three goals per game at home. Nantes also bear the boastful stigma of being the highest goalscoring side in the division, which is even more impressive considering that they loaned out important striker Ivan Klasnic to Bolton Wanderers for the season to help handle their financial issues. Visitors Metz were one of the better performers in Ligue 2 last year but have really failed to reproduce that form this year with just three wins in nine games. Metz just aren’t scoring enough goals, something that’s highly evident from the fact that only two sides in Ligue 2 have scored less goals then they have. They’ve also been extremely reliant on their home form to guide them through tough times as they are currently unbeaten at home, winning three times and drawing twice so far. Away from home, however, Metz start to look very weak indeed. With just two goals scored from four away games and an unhealthy average of conceding two goals per away game, Metz are looking very shaky indeed, particularly with a record that reads three defeats and one draw from all four away games. Just one win in their last five games leaves Metz very short of momentum and confidence in general, which is somewhat contradictory of their actual ability. Overall, you have to feel that a very strong Nantes side are going to win this game today for the above reasons so taking the home win at 4/5 looks a real gem today!
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Nantes vs Metz – home win at 4/5 – see introduction for full details.
Minior Pernik vs Lokomotiv Sofia – away win at 5/6. I think it’s fair to say that the majority of Bulgarian A PFG games are either fixed or have horrible odds, which is largely why you rarely see me preview any of their games. Today, however, it looks like we have a potential money-earner with an away win for Lokomotiv Sofia. I’m not one to shy away from owning up if I make a bad call etc. but if the visitors don’t win this game then I strongly suspect that it’s been fixed. Why? Well, the visitors are head-and-shoulders above Minior Pernik in terms of quality. Examples – Lokomotiv Sofia haven’t dropped any points against Minor Pernik since the year 2000. Lokomotiv Sofia beat them 5-1 at home last season and 1-0 away last season. Lokomotiv Sofia frankly have better players and it shows often. Now that’s established, we have to look at current form. Lokomotiv Sofia are unbeaten in their last five games, winning three and drawing twice. They’ve played four away games this season, winning three and losing just once. One of their more notable away wins was the frankly heroic victory away to bitter rivals Levski Sofia, a result that impressed me greatly, even if the hosts on that day had indeed parted with a lot of good players shortly before that game. Minior Pernik, despite a good start, have lost their last three games in a row. Their home record also shows that they’ve lost two of three home games, leaving them looking somewhat susceptible ahead of this clash today. Effectively, I can’t see anything today that would bring anything but an away win at 5/6 in this game so I must reiterate my belief that this game will be fixed if it’s anything but an away win, as crazy as that might sound!
Jablonec vs Viktoria Plzen – home win at 5/6. Generally, I’d be dishing out a higher confidence rating than 7/10 for the home win if I hadn’t heard on the grapevine that Jablonec nad Nisou was expecting the same kind of snowstorms that we saw for the Poland vs Slovakia game last week, which isn’t satisfactory footballing conditions to reliably make a bet. Therefore, I’d recommend checking the weather reports before this bet. However, that aside – Jablonec are in tremendous form at the moment. Three wins from their last three games keep their dream alive as no side in the Gambrinus Liga has truly seized hold of the lead this season and said “This is mine – come and claim it if you want it!”. Jablonec have steadily been getting better these past couple of years and although previously I’ve said “Not a chance” when asked if I thought they could lift the title, I’m now found with no reason to state otherwise if you consider how impressive they’ve actually been. Just one defeat in ten games for second-placed Jablonec and seven wins along the way to compliment it. Their home record shows four wins from five games with the other being a draw. Having won this game last season, Jablonec know that they’re capable of beating Viktoria Plzen as well as boasting a better squad. Visitors Viktoria Plzen have started admirably this season when you consider the limited squad and resources that they actually have. They’ve won five from ten games and only been beaten three times. Recent form shows they’re unbeaten in three games and enjoy making life difficult for their opponents rather than blowing them away. However, Viktoria Plzen aren’t as good a side as Jablonec and I really expect to see that today as the hosts have better momentum and a very good home record. For me, there’s value in the home win at 5/6.
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Monday’s Tips
Bulgarian A PFG:
Minior Pernik vs Lokomotiv Sofia (8) 0-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jablonec vs Viktoria Plzen (7) 2-1
Danish Superligaen:
SonderjyskE vs AGF Aarhus (6) 0-1
English Premier League:
Fulham vs Hull City (8) 2-0
English League One:
Leeds United vs Norwich City (8)
French Ligue 2:
Nantes vs Metz (7)
German Bundesliga 2:
Union Berlin vs Greuther Furth (5) draw no bet
Greek B Ethniki:
Panserraikos vs Diagoros Rodos (8)
Italian Serie B:
Albinoleffe vs Sassuolo (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara (7) 2-1
Norwegian Tippeligaen:
Fredrikstad vs Odd Grenland Skien (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Super Reds vs Albirex Niigate (7) 2-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Halmstads vs Hammarby (6) 2-1
Malmo vs IFK Goteborg (4) 1-1
BK Hacken vs Djurgardens (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!