Tag Archives: Independiente

Deportivo Quito vs Independiente

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Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter in Ecuador between Deportivo Quito and Independiente. The first leg ended 2-0 to Independiente in Argentina so the hosts have to make a go of it tonight or face an early exit from South America’s most prestigious competition.

Since Deportivo Quito properly arrived on the continental scene in South America a couple of years ago, they’ve been feared opponents to face in Ecuador due to the severe altitude in Quito, which is approximately 2850 metres above sea level. Essentially, that’s why Deportivo’s bitter rivals Liga de Quito won the Copa Libertadores a few years ago – because nobody can beat them at home. Deportivo Quito share a similar record for obvious reasons but due to the money being pumped into the club, this club is rapidly beginning to overtake Liga de Quito and establish itself as the best in Ecuador once again, which is surprising given the crippling financial position they were in only a couple of years ago. Nonetheless, it’s worthwhile to consider them as a force again with seven wins from their last nine continental home games (including two draws), especially as even Estudiantes de la Plata have fallen foul of the Ecuadorian giants during that time. Let’s face it – Deportivo have to win here, irrespective of what Independiente do, so they’ll be attacking from the start and at this altitude, they really have to be taken seriously.

Visitors Independiente aren’t great travellers and to be fair, nobody travels well in Ecuador – it’s just a tough place for an away game for obvious reasons. However, this Independiente side boasts a potential secret weapon with new signing Defederico, who was impressive during his time at Huracan but less so after an unhelpful move to Brazil. If Independiente can bring the best out in him then there’s a possibility of a more potent Independiente side this season, as they demonstrated in the first leg, although there’s still some way to go before they can truly challenge the likes of Velez Sarsfield and Estudiantes De La Plata domestically. Independiente do bring a good advantage into this game with their 2-0 first leg win but as I said earlier, Ecuador is no easy place to play and Independiente know it. Independiente arrived fairly early in Ecuador, which shows intelligence, but they decided to train in Guayaquil (at the home of Barcelona), which removed any sign of intelligence from their decision. Guayaquil is a coastal city in Ecuador and as a result, it’s barely above sea level at all, so what was the point? It’s not the grass that Independiente will struggle with – it’s the altitude – and they’re not preparing for it in the right manner, in my view. Independiente have a decent side but better sides than themselves have been felled in Ecuador and with a narrow home win meaning that Independiente still go through, I don’t think it’s out of the question here at all. Incidentally, Independiente still miss important defender Galeano as he’s still at the Copa Sudamericano U20 with Argentina U20 and that should be very evident tonight.

I’d probably leave the game if the odds drop further because as much as Deportivo have to win this game, their main advantage is altitude – quality-wise, Independiente are marginally better than they are. However, home advantage, altitude, and a lack of reason to win the game for Independiente makes the home win at 4/5 look a good call for me tonight although it’s anyone’s guess as to who progresses.

Team news – Deportivo Quito miss Espinoza whereas Independiente miss Galeano.

Verdict: Deportivo Quito to win at 4/5.

Tuesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Sunderland vs Chelsea – lay Chelsea at 11/10.

Chelsea’s odds look way too short for this game. Sunderland has been the graveyard of many big sides and I don’t see anything to make Chelsea exempt from that list tonight. Manchester United were totally bullied by Sunderland at the Stadium of Light earlier this season, somehow emerging with a 0-0 draw, whilst Arsenal have drawn here 1-1 and Manchester City have lost here 1-0. Sunderland won 0-3 at Stamford Bridge earlier this season in a strong display and although Chelsea have gathered some momentum since then, they’re still not in a position to win this game, in my view. I don’t know what Bruce does to his players but they’re highly motivated before every home game and that should really show tonight.

Sunderland lost Darren Bent during the transfer window, which is a blow, of course. However, they still have Gyan in attack so I’m not too concerned about them yet. It looks like Bruce is preparing for a second half of the campaign playing 4-5-1 with the acquisition of two midfielders to replace the departed Bent, especially with Welbeck out injured for a little while to come. Out of those two new signings, however, Sunderland only have Sessegnon available to them as Muntari has not passed some clearance or other yet. Sunderland still miss Cattermole, which is a blow as he’s a good holding midfielder, but aside from that, Sunderland are in a strong position and enter the game on the back of a 1-2 win at Blackpool so I fancy their chances here.

Chelsea have had to play an FA Cup game since their last Premier League game so they’ve not had as much time to prepare for this game as Sunderland have and let’s be realistic here – Chelsea just don’t have the depth anymore to compete on various fronts, in my view. With all the news about Chelsea moving to sign Fernando Torres and the possibility of Nicolas Anelka moving in the opposite direction, their strikers can’t be in the best frame of mind at the moment so I don’t expect a great Chelsea display here.

Chelsea’s momentum in recent times has concerned me; I cannot deny it. They’ve actually got a strong record at Sunderland, unusually, so do approach this one with caution. However, I’d argue that Chelsea haven’t been as unimpressive as they are now for some time and I’d also argue that Sunderland have rarely looked stronger in recent years than they do now so I think there’s value in laying Chelsea tonight at 5/6.

Team news – Sunderland miss Muntari, Cattermole, Campbell, Turner, Welbeck, and Meylor whereas Chelsea miss Benayoun, Zhirkov, and have doubts over Alex.

Verdict: Lay Chelsea at 11/10.

Sheffield United vs Leicester City – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.

I think this one speaks for itself, really. Sheffield United’s greatest enemy is goalscoring but they’ve brought in experienced striker Marcus Bent during the transfer window to ease their issues and that should really happen with immediate effect, especially against a Leicester side that have conceded so many goals away from home that only Crystal Palace can “better” their record. Nonetheless, Sven’s Leicester have brought in some good players, especially the likes of Yakubu in attack, so I expect a strong display from The Foxes tonight. Leicester have a better side than Sheffield United for my money but that doesn’t always mean a lot in the Championship so I won’t touch the away win here. However, with Sheffield United looking to push further away from the drop zone and Leicester edging towards the play-offs, both sides need the points and I think over 2.5 goals is reasonably priced at 21/20.

Team news – Sheffield United miss Nosworthy.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.

Exeter City vs Southampton – lay Southampton at 5/6.

Not a lot to say about this one either, to be honest. Exeter are a strong home side because they score so many goals on their own turf so they’ll be a good match for Southampton tonight. Southampton must be tired after their excruciating game against Manchester United in the FA Cup as their players worked themselves into the ground whereas Exeter had a fairly eventless game with Swindon Town so again, I have to favour the hosts here. Southampton still miss star midfielder Lallana and frankly are being priced on their name more than anything here, which is a bit silly, in my view. With the above in mind, I just don’t see Exeter losing this one so laying Southampton at 5/6 looks intriguing to me today.

Team news – Exeter City have doubts over Cureton and Southampton miss Lallana.

Verdict: Lay Southampton at 5/6.

Recommended bets:

An absence of accumulator fodder leaves me with no multiples today – sorry guys!

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Copa Libertadores:

Deportivo Quito vs Independiente (7) 2-1
Jaguares vs Alianza Lima (5) 0-0

English Premier League:

Arsenal vs Everton (6) both sides to score
Sunderland vs Chelsea (5) 1-0
Manchester United vs Aston Villa (6) 2-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Wigan Athletic (5) 1-1

English Championship:

Norwich City vs Millwall (6)
Bristol City vs Swansea City (4)
Cardiff City vs Reading (5) both sides to score
Barnsley vs Preston North End (6)
Coventry City vs Nottingham Forest (5) under 2.5 goals
Watford vs Crystal Palace (7)
Doncaster Rovers vs Burnley (5)
Sheffield United vs Leicester City (6) over 2.5 goals
Hull City vs Leeds United (5)
Derby County vs Ipswich Town (6)
Middlesbrough vs Scunthorpe United (7)
Queens Park Rangers vs Portsmouth (7)

English League One:

Huddersfield Town vs Carlisle United (6) over 2.5 goals
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Brentford (6)
Peterborough United vs Sheffield Wednesday (7) over 2.5 goals
Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale (6)
Bournemouth vs Swindon Town (7)
Yeovil Town vs Plymouth Argyle (5) under 2.5 goals
Oldham Athletic vs Hartlepool United (6) under 2.5 goals
Exeter City vs Southampton (5) both sides to score
Leyton Orient vs Brighton & Hove Albion (3)
Charlton Athletic vs Colchester United (6)

English League Two:

Torquay United vs Hereford United (5) under 2.5 goals
Port Vale vs Rotherham United (6)
Accrington Stanley vs Morecambe (5)
Bradford City vs Lincoln City (6)
Northampton Town vs Crewe Alexandra (5) over 2.5 goals
Southend United vs Oxford United (5)
Shrewsbury Town vs Burton Albion (6)
Stevenage vs Gillingham (5)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Cheltenham Town (4) both sides to score
Aldershot Town vs Barnet (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Bury (6)
Stockport County vs Chesterfield (5)

Finnish Liiga Cup:

HJK Helsinki vs FC Honka Espoo (7) over 2.5 goals

German Bundesliga 2:

Erzebirge Aue vs FSV Frankfurt (5) draw no bet

Italian Serie A:

AC Milan vs Lazio (6) 2-1

Dutch Eredivisie:

De Graafschap vs FC Utrecht (6) 1-1

Scottish Premier League:

Aberdeen vs Celtic (7) over 2.5 goals
St.Johnstone vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 1-0

Welsh Premier League:

Llanelli vs Prestatyn Town (6) 2-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Brest vs Vannes OC

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Today’s featured games is the Ligue 2 encounter between Brest and Vannes OC. The hosts have been very impressive in Ligue 2 this year and currently find themselves in fourth place in the table. They’ve won three of their last five games and are unbeaten on that particular run. The main reason for their success has been their consistent home form which has seen them yield five wins from seven games, drawing once and losing just once. Brest are looking twice the side that they were last year and look one of the harder sides to beat currently. Vannes OC, by contrast, are not having a good season. They’re currently thirteenth in the Ligue 2 table with one win and four defeats from their last five games, which isn’t good enough. Whereas their away record isn’t exactly the worst in the league, it’s still poor with three defeats, two draws, and one defeat from their six away games played this year. Vannes OC basically are not looking good enough to take anything from this game so I’m going to call a home win at bargain odds of 5/6 for a very much in-form and reliable Brest.

Friday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Brest vs Vannes OC – home win at 5/6 – see introduction for full details.

Universidad de Chile vs Fluminense – home win at 11/10. I don’t know what it is about Chilean sides playing Brazilian sides but they seem to have more success in stopping their Brazilian counterparts playing football much better than any other South American nation does. Perhaps it’s their dogged style of football that really gets to the Brazilians – I’m not sure. This point was illustrated in the first leg of this game as Universidad de Chile drew 2-2 in Brazil against Fluminense. Universidad de Chile are one of the more experienced continental sides in South America, I think it’s fair to say, and stand a great chance of progressing to the Copa Nissan Sudamericana here tonight against a Fluminense side more focal upon avoiding relegation from Serie A. The hosts have a good enough squad to win this game and the home advantage against a potentially distracted Fluminense makes the home win at 11/10 look a good call tonight.

Liga de Quito vs Velez Sarsfeld – home win at evens. Copa Libertadores reigning champions Liga de Quito tonight host Velez Sarsfeld in the Copa Nissan Sudamericana quarter-final game. An impressive 1-1 draw in Argentina in the first leg leaves the Ecuadorians with the edge as the Argentinians vist their lofty fortress in Quito. Many sides have travelled here and failed so it will take a mighty display from Velez Sarsfeld to avoid falling to a similar fate. What convinces me of this outcome is not only that this is a nightmarish away game for any side and that Velez Sarsfeld have to come here and attack to have a chance of success but also that Velez Sarsfeld’s performances of late have been inconsistent at best. For instance – they’ve beaten lowly Godoy Cruz de Mendoza and newly-promoted Atletico Tucuman but have also lost at home to Newell’s Old Boys. When travelling to a good home side like Liga de Quito, you really need to be at your best. Basically, I don’t think Velez Sarsfeld are currently in a position to get a result here so I think the home win at evens for the Ecuadorians looks a good bet tonight.

Sedan-Ardennes vs Metz – away win at 15/8. I can’t quite fathom why these odds are so long! Visitors Metz are not the best travellers in Ligue 2 – far from it. However, they remain one of the best sides in the division, regardless of that point. Aside from that, Metz have really entered their stride lately with four wins from their last five games. If this statistic isn’t impressive enough for you then consider that all of the sides they have beaten/drawn with in those five games either are a very good side or showed that they can be a very good side last season. Metz have lately won away to Chateauroux and drew away to high-flying Nantes whilst beating Guingamp, Laval, and Strasbourg at home. This list of sides is very impressive, in my humble opinion, and a weak Sedan-Ardennes shouldn’t really pose a great threat here tonight, despite having a decent home record. Sedan-Ardennes have lost three of their last five games, including two embarassing defeats to Nimes and Istres. Therefore, to be frank, the away win at 15/8 could turn out to be a real bargain tonight.

Arles vs Le Havre – away win at 13/8. Although currently unbeaten at home in Ligue 2 this year, hosts Arles will face one of their toughest tests yet as they host a very much in-form Le Havre. The visitors have won three of their last five games, losing just once. Their most recent victory was a monday night 4-0 demolition of promotion rivals Nantes, which will have inspired Le Havre greatly. Arles are doing well with keeping sides out but that record simply has to end soon enough because Arles are punching above their weight. Visitors Le Havre certainly have a classier side and look far more capable of winning this game than the hosts do. For me, the away win at 13/8 could prove to be a great bet tonight, particularly as Le Havre have already won three from seven away games this season, losing just once along the way.

Empoli vs Reggina – home win at evens. Anyone who reads this blog knows that I love my Serie B home wins and Empoli are amongst my favourite sides to back for it, too! Although atrocious away from home, Empoli become a very different side when playing on their own turf as five wins from six home games indicates. Some poor form lately has cast a few doubts in my mind over the reliability of Empoli but they’re hosting a Reggina side tonight that have lost four of their last five games and look destined to fail in this division despite having only joined Serie B from Serie A this year. Comparing Empoli’s superb home record with an average of nearly three goals scored per home game to Reggina’s away record of four defeats from six away games, conceding nearly two goals per away game, you have to feel that there’s potentially a great deal of value in the home win at evens!

Groningen vs Heracles Almelo – away win at 9/5. I never thought I’d see the day that I backed Heracles Almelo to win an away game but here we are! Visitors Heracles Almelo are playing some of the best football that they’ve ever played, in my humble opinion, and have well-earned their current Eredivisie placing of sixth. They’ve won four of their last five games but their most impressive feature is the fact that they’ve won four from six away games this year with only FC Twente Enschede having won more away games this year. Heracles Almelo’s strength isn’t goalscoring; it’s keeping sides out. They’ve conceded just one goal away from home in six games this year, which is pretty damn impressive! Although I formerly rated Groningen as the better of these two sides, statistics for this year show otherwise in a big way. The hosts have lost so many home games that only bottom-placed RKC Waalwijk have lost more home games than they have. Groningen have lost four of their six home games this season and scored a feeble two goals. Considering the lax attack of Groningen and the watertight defence of Heracles Almelo makes me think an away win is very likely here, particularly with the sharp contrast in momentum and ability at the moment, particularly as Groningen are without a win in their past four games and have lost their last two consecutively. For me, there’s potentially some serious value in the away win at 9/5.

Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce – home win at evens. Many people have dubbed Lechia Gdansk’s start to this Ekstraklasa campaign as “fortunate”; maybe they’re right. However, fortune has no place in what will surely be a home win against a weak, newly-promoted Korona Kielce as the visitors have now lost four games in a row. Korona Kielce looked to be playing ok but all of a sudden they’ve completely capitulated and the result is a sharp descent down the Ekstraklasa. The visitors have lost four from five away games in the Ekstraklasa this season and Lechia Gdansk are well-placed to take advantage of that fact. The hosts may have a somewhat impassive home record this year but they’re resilient, experienced in the Ekstraklasa dogfight and won their last game to give them momentum as they enter this game. With all of the above in mind, the home win at evens could be a real bargain today.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Copa Nissan Sudamericana:

Universidad de Chile vs Fluminense (7) under 2.5 goals
Liga de Quito vs Velez Sarsfeld (7) under 2.5 goals

Argentinian Primera Division:

Argentinos Juniors vs Rosario Central (5) 1-1
Independiente vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 2-0

Australian A-League:

Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar (7) 2-1

Austrian Liga 1:

Austria Vienna II vs Wacker Innsbruck (8)
SCR Altach vs Gratkorn (8)
Hartberg vs Admira Wacker (8)
Lustenau vs Salzburg II (6)
First Vienna vs Dornbirn (5) over 2.5 goals

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Charleroi vs AA Gent (6) 1-2

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Montana (7) 1-0

Danish 1st Division:

Viborg vs Skive (8)

English Championship:

Derby County vs Coventry City (4) draw no bet

English FA Cup:

Bristol Rovers vs Southampton (6) 1-1
Notts County vs Bradford City (8) 2-0
Huddersfield Town vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6) 2-1

French Ligue 2:

AC Ajaccio vs Dijon FCO (6)
Angers SCO vs Bastia (6)
Brest vs Vannes OC (8)
Clermont Foot vs Nimes (7)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Metz (6)
Strasbourg vs Istres (6)
Arles vs Le Havre (6)
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Tours (8)
Chateauroux vs Laval (6)

German Bundesliga:

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt (8) 3-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Kaiserslautern vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (7)
St.Pauli vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (7)
Paderborn vs Koblenz (6)

Greek B Ethniki:

Ilioupoli vs Ethnikos Asteras (7)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Ujpest vs Fehervar (6) 1-1

Italian Serie B:

Empoli vs Reggina (7)

Dutch Eredivisie:

Groningen vs Heracles Almelo (7) 0-1

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Excelsior (7) over 2.5 goals
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Volendam (6)
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht ’90 (6)
Eindhoven vs Veendam (7)
Fortuna Sittard vs RBC Roosendaal (7)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Haarlem (8)
Helmond Sport vs Top Oss (6)
MVV Maastricht vs Omniworld (8)
Stormvogels Telstar vs Zwolle (7)

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Odra Wodzislaw vs Zaglebie Lubin (5) 1-1
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce (8) 1-0
Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warsaw (7) 2-1

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Belenenses vs Pacos de Ferreira (6) under 2.5 goals

Romanian Liga:

Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Gloria Bistrita (7) 2-0
International vs Universitatea Craiova (8) 1-1

Singaporean S-League:

Sengkang Punggol vs Woodlands (5) 1-1

Turkish Super Lig:

Bursaspor vs Genclerbirligi (8) 2-0

Welsh Premier League:

Aberystwyth Town vs Bala Town (7) 2-1
Airbus vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (6) 1-0
Haverfordwest County vs Neath Athletic (6) 1-1
Prestatyn Town vs Newtown (7) 2-1
The New Saints vs Newi Cefn Druids (8) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!