Lanus vs Atletico Tucuman

Well, who expected City to win at Chelsea yesterday?! Fair play to you if you did! That result throws the Premier League wide open again with Chelsea yet to visit Manchester United or Liverpool and Manchester United yet to visit Manchester City and host bogey side Liverpool.

Anyway, today’s featured game sees us visit the Argentinian Primera Division for the game between Lanus and Atletico Tucuman. Hosts Lanus have been underachieving so far this season which is largely due to absent-minded defending but have still maintained a good level of ability. Visitors Atletico Tucuman set themselves an aim of avoiding relegation each year so they simply attempt to take as many point as they can throughout the season but are generally a poor side although moreso on the road than at home.

Lanus enter this game on the back of an emphatic 4-1 in Bolivia against Blooming Santa Cruz mid-week. Blooming aren’t a good side so the result was expected but the manner of which it was done impressed me as the visitors scored four goals and came from behind to win the game. This result gives Lanus a slender chance of qualification to the next round of the Copa Libertadores so their morale may have been lifted. Lanus are a capable side and have been given the momentum that they so badly needed by avoiding defeat in their last two games and scoring five goals along the way. Lanus’ home record domestically this season shows one game won and one game lost but it’s not quite that simple. Lanus have actually scored three goals in each game; only a freak away win for Argentinos Juniors (3-6 final score) has broken Lanus’ usually stiff resolve at home. Lanus are still as potent as ever – if they can resolve their defensive issues then they’ll be a threat again. I don’t expect those issues to be resolved overnight but they’ve only conceded twice in their last two games so they’re on their way. Lanus are a good side and with momentum and home advantage on their side they stand a damn good chance of winning tonight.

Visitors Atletico Tucuman are a good side home side but a poor away side. They’re one of the poorer sides in the division irrespective of playing at home or away and their five games without a win this season emphasises that point well. They’ve drawn three times and lost twice and despite onlyconceding five goals they’ve only managed to score twice, hence their continued issues. They’ve played two away games, losing once and drawing once – losing at Independiente and drawing at Boca Juniors. Atletico tend to focus on their defence rather than attack which is why they’re unbeaten in their last three games but a goal scored against them is usually enough to break them and let’s face it – the one side that aren’t short on goalscoring ability this season is Lanus with eight goals scored in the Clausura already.

You wouldn’t see these odds if Lanus were technically “in-form” because they’re twice the side that Atletico Tucuman are. I’m happy for the bookies to continue underrating them due to their poor start to the campaign if it means we get odds like this twice in one week! Lanus should notch up a couple of goals here tonight and Atletico simply don’t have enough to keep them out.

Verdict: Lanus to win at 4/5.

Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Once Caldas Manizales vs Millonarios Bogota – home win at 10/11.

Once Caldas Manizales have had a mixed campaign so far and appear to be focusing far more on the Copa Libertadores. They’ve won both games in the competition – an away game in Paraguay against Nacional Asuncion and a home match with Sao Paulo of Brazil – and have played well in both games. Once Caldas beat Sao Paulo mid-week so they have taken considerable momentum from beating such illustrious visitors. Once Caldas are traditionally a strong home side and although they’ve not proven that extensively this season, they remain a potent force so success isn’t far away. They average scoring over two goals per home game currently and stand a good chance of overcoming their visitors tonight.

Millonarios Bogota have played two away games this season and have lost both games convincingly with an average of three goals conceded per game. The defeat at Atletico Junior Barranquilla is acceptable but the 4-1 crushing at Deportivo Cali was poor and Millonarios should be able to play better. Millonarios have quite a good record here in recent times but they’re going to struggle tonight with a leaky defence and just one goal scored on the road this season in the Primera A so I expect a strong Once Caldas home side to take advantage of that fact by beating them tonight.

Verdict: Once Caldas Manizales to win at 10/11.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa – Manchester United to win at 5/6.

This game is a final so do approach with caution. However, I’m basing this call on a few different things so bear with me!

Manchester United took on Aston Villa at Villa Park lately and despite playing the vast majority of the game with ten men, Manchester United were shockingly dominant in a game that Aston Villa looked frankly outclassed in. It was quite the role reversal as Villa won at United this season when United were out-of-form and frankly were outplayed. However, Villa are entering this game looking decidedly thin on the ground; stretched, if you will. I tend to find that Villa do reach this point at this stage of each season because although they’re a good solid unit of a team, they’re still short on numbers. I mean, look at Villa’s recent games – they drew 2-2 at Crystal Palace in the FA Cup and needed to beat them in the replay with two late penalties due to their persistent struggling. Villa were outplayed by United’s ten men at home and were outplayed at White Hart Lane against Tottenham when they were fortunate to draw 0-0. Villa beat Burnley 5-2 at home lately but the scoreline doesn’t tell the story with Villa needing some catastrophic Burnley defending to score those goals and I would imagine Villa were more concerned with how poor their defence were in that game, a defence which has been the foundation of a successful campaign so far.

So yeah – Villa aren’t looking too good, in my opinion. United have been convincing with the superb Wayne Rooney in form but they need it to stay that way. He went missing against Everton and United were comfortably beaten 3-1, and it could have been a lot worse for the reigning champions. However, when he’s on form, he scores goals and United tend to win those games. United are full of goals at the moment and although their defence has been lacking in recent times, they’re still winning the majority of their games.

United have far better experience than Villa do in final having competed in many more so that experience should lend United a hand today. Villa have a lot of pace and energy in their ranks so they’ll make life hard for United but I expect United to pack their midfield and thus dominate possession. Villa are a tad too inexperienced for this occasion, in my opinion, so I expect a potent and experience United to do the business today.

Verdict: Manchester United to win in ninety minutes at 5/6.

Le Mans vs Girondins de Bordeaux – away win at 4/5.

Le Mans are in danger of being relegated to Ligue 2 if they don’t improve their form rapidly. They’re strong at home but incredibly weak away with eleven defeats in twelve games. Their home form is good enough to earn them a mid-table spot but they’re being hamstrung by their away form. Le Mans have only lost four times at home this season but have real problems scoring goals with just fifteen scored in thirteen home games so should struggle against a defensively-astute Girondins de Bordeaux today. Le Mans are on something of a run with no defeats in two games, drawing at home to Sochaux and winning at relegation rivals Boulogne. However, they’re facing a damn good Bordeaux side today and one I don’t believe that they can match.

Visitors Girondins de Bordeaux won their last game in Greece against Olympiakos Piraeus in the UEFA Champions League. Despite this being a difficult away game at the best of times, Bordeaux handled the occasion magnificently and Blanc’s tactical prowess paid off as I expected it to with Bordeaux winning 1-0. Bordeaux not only carry the momentum from that game into this game but also the fact that they won at Le Mans a couple of weeks ago in the Coupe De La Ligue so they’re more than capable of doing so again. Bordeaux have won seven away games out of twelve already this season, a record that only Valenciennes can even attempt to match, so they’re well-placed to do well here today. They’re not big goalscorers themselves on the road but they tend to do enough to win their games as they’re one of the best defensive sides in the whole of France. Bordeaux have scored at least two goals in their last four domestic away games and thus are looking very menacing ahead of their trip to little Le Mans today and ultimately should have enough to see the job done.

There’s a real mismatch in quality between these two sides today and anything but a Bordeaux win would be a surprise to me as a result.

Verdict: Girondins de Bordeaux to win at 4/5.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Olympique de Marseille - away win at 6/4.

El Clasico finds hosts Paris Saint-Germain in dismal form and feeling fortunate to still be mid-table after a run of six Ligue 1 games with just one win, losing four times along the way. PSG’s problems largely stem from their inability to score goals. However, they remain a good home side with six wins in twelve games and just three defeats in Paris all season. They owe a great deal of success to their solid defence rather than their potency but success is success irrespective of how it’s obtained. PSG haven’t conceded in their last two Ligue 1 games so they’re solid defensively but just one goal scored during those two games indicates where PSG’s real problems currently lie. PSG have problems dealing with Marseille in this rivarly match as they’ve not beaten them at home in their past four attempts, drawing twice and losing twice. The balance of power has shifted since the days of Patrice Loko and Florian Maurice – now is the era of Olympique de Marseille with the likes of Niang and Cheyrou doing the damage.

Olympique de Marseille have failed to convince me of their clear ability this season which I largely attribute to their somewhat inept defence. Marseille rarely have problems scoring goals and indeed their last four consecutive wins in all competitions stem entirely from Marseille outscoring their opponents, opponents that scored in each game. Marseille have now notched up eleven goals during those four games so even a watertight PSG defence will have their work cut out tonight. Remarkably, Marseille still have a chance of lifting the Ligue 1 title despite being inconsistent but the need to keep winning – starting today. They’ve already won six out of thirteen away games in the Ligue 1 this season so they’re shaping up well for El Clasico in that respect. Only Olympique Lyonnais have scored more away goals than Olympique de Marseille this season with tonight’s visitors having scored nearly two goals per away game so I do expect goals to be scored tonight.

Ultimately, Marseille are too good for PSG nowadays. PSG will look to keep Marseille out but frequently fail to do so. Marseille should score at least two goals in this game and I just don’t envision PSG having the firepower to counter them.

Verdict: Olympique de Marseille to win at 6/4.

Vasas Budapest vs Nyiregyhaza Spartacus – home win at 5/6.

Financially-troubled Vasas Budapest have had a disappointing campaign thus far and linger dangerously close to the relegation zone. However, their sole consolation for this fact is that they’re a fairly strong home side and have already won four out of eight home goals this season. Although Vasas concede more goals than they’d like to, they do average scoring nearly two goals per home game so potency is rarely an issue for them, which should assist them in overcoming bottom club Nyiregyhaza Spartacus today.

Nyiregyhaza have already lost five out of seven away games in the Soproni Liga and have drawn the other two. They average conceding over two goals per away game and score less than a goal per away game on average so their bottom placed position in the Soproni Liga is well-earned. Only three sides have conceded more away goals than today’s visitors have and with the visitors having lost twice and drawn once on their last three league visits here, it’s hard to see why they’d have a chance of doing so today.

Verdict: Vasas Budapest to win at 5/6.

Groningen vs Feyenoord Rotterdam – home win at 6/4.

Groningen are in terrific form and will be buoyed by the fact that they’ve won this exact fixture for four seasons running now. Feyenoord haven’t won here since 2005, in fact, and that doesn’t look likely to change with their current lack of form. Groningen have now won six out of their last eight Eredivisie games with their only defeat coming against Heracles Almelo despite leading 3-0 at one point so Groningen are very much in-form currently, as well as scoring a lot of goals. Groningen have won three out of their last four home games consecutively and the only side to prevent them from winning here is title challengers Twente Enschede, who drew 0-0 with Groningen. Ultimately, Groningen have enough in their arsenal both currently and in their past to take three points from this game today.

Visitors Feyenoord Rotterdam have only won once in their last five games and they were somewhat fortuitous to beat RKC Waalwijk in their solitary win, to be honest. They’ve drawn three games – including a poor draw at home to ADO Den Haag despite leading twice – and lost at home to a rejuvenated AZ Alkmaar. Feyenoord are still scoring goals but they’re conceding far too many and their general level of performance has suffered as a result. Feyenoord’s momentum and morale are ebbing away and that’s the last thing they need against bogey side Groningen.

Feyenoord have only lost twice in the Eredivisie on the road this season but I’m finding it hard to convince myself that their record won’t be three defeats by the end of this game today because of the polar opposites the two sides are in terms of form and the home advantage of Groningen.

Verdict: Groningen to win at 6/4.

Polonia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan – over 2.5 goals at 5/4.

Polonia Warsaw’s league placing the Ekstraklasa is misleading with the hosts playing some good football under former Barcelona legend Jose Maria Bakero. They’ve signed a lot of players during the transfer window – Bryzski, Gancarczyk, Mayoral, and even Cortes from Everton in Chile – and have played some tough friendlies with Zenit St Petersburg, Valencia, and Dinamo Moscow to prepare themselves for a tough stage of their season. Polonia Warsaw play some attractive football under Bakero, football which jeopardises their defensive prowess but favours my call of over 2.5 goals very much indeed!

Lech Poznan are competing for the title this year and have some superb individuals but have yet to convince me as a unit. They’ve come back in high spirits after their winter break but have only made one addition to their squad. That said, their acquisition is arguably the best of the Ekstraklasa transfers with Lech having signed Belarusian playmaker Sergey Krievts from BATE Borisov. He’s impressed me for a few years now and I’m surprised he’s moved to Poland rather than some of the better leagues in Eastern Europe like the Russian or Ukrainian Premier League. I’m confident he’ll dominate this league given chance and this adds yet more strength to an already strong Lech side. Lech are the second-highest goalscoring side in the division on the road with an average of approximately 1.5 goals scored per game. They average conceding just under a goal per away game but that’s sure to be put to the test against a creative and attacking Polonia Warsaw on a rough pitch.

All that makes me doubt this call today is that the pitch is a bit worse for wear in Warsaw but these two sides have enough spark and firepower to enforce over 2.5 goals are scored today, just as it has been for the last three Ekstraklasa meetings here.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/4.

CFR Cluj vs Steaua Bucharest – home win at 10/11.

CFR Cluj enter this game on the back of an impressive win at reigning champions Unirea Urziceni. The hosts for that game may have lost manager Petrescu over the summer and a couple of players but were still a force but one that Cluj dealt with somewhat comfortably. Cluj are currently top of the Liga 1 and have already won seven out of nine home games this season, drawing the other two. They have no European commitments to distract them from their title challenge so are entirely focused on the game at hand. They boast one of the best defensive records in the division with just two goals conceded in nine home games – an average of nearly a goal scored against them per five games played! That phenomenal record aids their somewhat under-par goalscoring ability which tends to result in Cluj winning games rather efficiently. Cluj haven’t beaten Steaua Bucharest since 2005 but they’ve got enough in their favour tonight to see it happen.

Steaua Bucharest have failed to convince this season and only some individual brilliance from Colombians Zapata and Moreno have kept them in the title race. This kind of individual display tends to be enough to overcome the lower sides in this division but they’re going to struggle against sides like Cluj who have the collective ability to damage their opponents rather than just an individual or two. Steaua have already won six out of eight away games this season, a statistic that frankly flatters them, and one that doesn’t stagger me as a result. Let’s not forget that this Steaua side lost 3-1 at home to lowly Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt before the winter break so they’re really not playing well this season! Steaua don’t score or concede many goals on the road and their record against Cluj favours them immensely but I just can’t see them doing it today against their in-form hosts.

This should be a tough game between two title rivals but there’s more favouring Cluj than there is favouring a somewhat masquerading Steaua Bucharest today so I feel that the home win represents good value tonight.

Verdict: CFR Cluj to win at 10/11.

Real Madrid II vs Puertollano – home win at 10/11.

Real Madrid II have already won seven out of twelve home ganes in the Segunda B Group 2 this season and average scoring over two goals per home game, which is more than any other side in their group. Real Madrid II naturally play the same style of football as parent club Real Madrid do – lots of attacking and little attention to defence – so they tend to have similar affects in their respective divisions. They’ve won their last five home games consecutively and have scored fifteen times along the way – an average of three goals scored per game – so their potency is excellent at the moment. Their defence is weak but there’s nothing new there – so long as their attacking potency remains then Real Madrid II stand a very good chance of utilising their momentum and winning this game.

Visitors Puertollano have struggled on the road this season with six defeats in thirteen away games. They don’t concede excessively but they tend to find goals hard to come by in this division, away from home at least, so look set to struggle here. However, Puertollano have impressed lately with a four-game run of no defeats as they drew twice and then won twice consecutively. Puertollano actually haven’t conceded in their last three games but should do so today against a very potent and creative Real Madrid II. Puertollano will have taken a lot of confidence from recent results and I can only presume that the good odds we’ve been given are due to their recent displays but a rampant Real Madrid II should ultimately take the initiative against Puertollano and outscore them, something that shouldn’t be an issue against the goal-shy visitors.

Verdict: Real Madrid II to win at 10/11.

Roquetas vs Ceuta – home win at  7/5.

Roquetas are without a win in their last three games but have the perfect opportunity to amend that record today against Ceuta. Roquetas have remained consistent at home this season with six wins in twelve games. They don’t score enough goals but a relatively solid defence tends to ensure that Roquetas win more than they lose at home. Roquetas have only scored four goals in their last five games but they should have a great chance to better that statistic today as they’re facing a demoralised and leaky Ceuta side that don’t travel well.

Ceutra are a strong home side but a poor away side, generally speaking. They’ve lost six out of thirteen away games and average conceding nearly two goals per away game. Ceuta score surprisingly few goals on the road considering how deadly they are at home. Ceuta have looked even less likely to alter that record recently with a run of four games without a win in which they’ve scored just twice. The nail in the coffin lid for Ceuta surely has to be two consecutive home defeats without a single goal scored as Ceuta’s strength is largely on their own turf. They’ve not even lost to particularly good sides – just average sides Polideportivo Ejido and Real Betis Balompie II - so they’ll be particularly demoralised from this run. Ceuta have lost their last two away games consecutively and with a real lack of goalscoring at the moment it’s hard to see Ceuta doing anything today against Roquetas.

Roquetas’ lack of current form would normally discourage me from such a bet but frankly Ceuta have been abysmal lately and are generally poor on the road so there should be value in the home win today.

Verdict: Roquetas to win at 7/5.

Accumulator fodder:

Anderlecht, Lokomotiv Sofia, Omonia Nicosia, Mlada Boleslav, Sigma Olomouc, Deportivo Cuenca, Barcelona Guayaquil, Genoa, AC Milan, Juventus, Toluca, Puebla, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, PSV Eindhoven, Twente Enschede, Trofense, Sevilla CF, Real Oviedo, Sant Andreu, Ontinyent, Melilla, Polideportivo Ejido, Real Jaen, Granada, Basel, Lugano, Galatasaray, Shakhtar Donetsk, Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, Caracas, Deportivo Tachira.

Recommended bets:

Anderlecht, Bayern Munich, AC Milan, and Manchester United at 5/1.

Sigma Olomouc, Girondins de Bordeaux, Juventus, and Basel at 8/1

Olympiakos Piraeus, Genoa, Vasas Budapest, and Sevilla CF at 6/1.

Groningen, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Twente Enschede and PSV Eindhoven at 5/1.

Sevilla CF, Real Oviedo, Real Madrid II, Sant Andreu, and Roquetas at 15/1.

Atletico Junior Barranquilla, Lanus, Once Caldas Manizales, and Deportivo Cuenca at 9/1.

Toluca, Barcelona Guayaquil, and Argentinos Juniors at 5/1.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Tigre (4) 1-0
Lanus vs Atletico Tucuman (8) over 2.5 goals
Newell’s Old Boys vs Banfield (6) 1-1
Argentinos Juniors vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (7) 2-1
Gimnasia De La Plata vs River Plate (7) 1-1

Austrian Bundesliga:

Rapid Vienna vs Salzburg (6) 1-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Sint-Truiden vs Club Brugge (5) 1-1
Charleroi vs Zulte-Waregem (6) 0-1
Roeselare vs Anderlecht (9) over 2.5 goals

Belgian Tweede Klasse:

Boussu Dour Borinage vs Oostende (8)
Tienen vs Standaard Wetteren (6)
Liege vs Brussels (6)

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Beroe (8) -1.75 handicap

Colombian Primera A:

Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Deportivo Cali (8) 2-0
Boyaca Chico vs Deportes Tolima (6) 1-1
Atletico Huila vs La Equidad Bogota (5) 2-1
America de Cali vs Envigado (6) 1-0
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Deportivo Pereira (7) 1-0
Once Caldas Manizales vs Millonarios Bogota (7) 2-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Hajduk Split vs Slaven Koprivnica (7) 1-0

Cypriot Division 1:

Ethnikos Achnas vs APOP/Kinyras (6) 1-1
Anorthosis Famagusta vs APOEL Nicosia (6) 1-0
Omonia Nicosia vs Aris Limassol (9) -1.75 handicap

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Ceske Budejovice vs Teplice (6) 0-1
Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 (7) 1-0
Mlada Boleslav vs Kladno (8) 2–0
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovacko (8) 2-1

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente (8) 2-0
Liga de Quito vs Emelec Guayaquil (7) 2-1
Universidad Catolica vs Macara Ambato (6) 1-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Olmedo Riobamba (8) 2-1

English Premier League:

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton (6) 2-1
Liverpool vs Blackburn Rovers (7) under 2.5 goals
Sunderland vs Fulham (5) 1-1

English League Cup Final:

Manchester United vs Aston Villa (7) 2-0

French Ligue 1:

LOSC Lille vs Auxerre (7) 1-0
Le Mans vs Girondins de Bordeaux (8) 0-2
Paris Saint-Germain vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 0-1, at least one red card in this game

German Bundesliga:

Hannover 96 vs VFL Wolfsburg (7) 1-2
Bayern Munich vs Hamburger SV (8) over 2.5 goals

German Bundesliga 2:

St.Pauli vs Arminia Bielefeld (6)
Karlsruher SC vs Kaiserslautern (7)
Rot-Weiss Ahlen vs Union Berlin (5)

Greek Super League:

Panthrakikos vs Kavala (6) 0-1
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos (8) 2-0
Aris Salonika vs Larissa (7) 2-1
Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina (6) 1-0
Panionios vs Panathinaikos (6) 1-2

Greek B Ethniki:

Anagennisi Karditsas vs Ilioupoli (6)
Ethnikos Piraeus vs OFI Crete (6)
Aigaleo Athens vs Panaitolikos Agrinio (4)
Ionikos Nikaias vs Olympiakos Volos (6)
Kerkyra vs Ethnikos Asteras (6)
Panserraikos vs Agrotikos Asteras (6)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Vasas Budapest vs Nyiregyhaza Spartacus (7) 1-0

Italian Serie A:

AC Milan vs Atalanta Bergamo (8) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Genoa vs Bologna (8) over 2.5 goals
Chievo Verona vs Cagliari (5) 1-1
Udinese vs Internazionale (5) 1-1
SSC Napoli vs AS Roma (6) 0-0
Parma vs Sampdoria (6) 0-1
Livorno vs Siena (7) 0-0
Juventus vs Palermo (8) over 2.5 goals

Italian Serie B:

Reggina vs Frosinone (5)

Mexican Primera Division:

Toluca vs Indios (8) 2-0
Puebla vs Jaguares (7) over 2.5 goals
Estudiantes Tecos vs America (6) 1-1

Dutch Eredivisie:

AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Utrecht (8) 2-0
PSV Eindhoven vs RKC Waalwijk (9) -1.75 handicap
Groningen vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (7) 2-1
Twente Enschede vs NEC Nijmegen (8) 2-1
Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda (5) 1-1

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Zaglebie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice (6) 0-0
Polonia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan (6) over 2.5 goals

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Academica de Coimbra vs Rio Ave (6) 1-0
Pacos de Ferreira vs Vitoria Setubal (5) 1-1
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Porto (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game

Portuguese Liga de Honra:

Freamunde vs Portimonense (5)
Penafiel vs Feirense (6)
Beira-Mar vs Estoril (5)
Carregado vs Fatima (6)
Trofense vs Sporting Covilha (8)
Santa Clara vs Varzim (7)

Romanian Liga:

Astra Ploiesti vs FC Brasov (5) 1-1
Rapid Bucharest vs Unirea Urziceni (6) 1-0
CFR Cluj vs Steaua Bucharest (7) 2-0

Scottish Premier League:

Rangers vs Celtic (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game

Slovenian Prva Liga:

Olimpija Ljubljana vs Nafta Lendava (6) 2-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Deportivo Xerez vs Espanyol (6) 1-1
Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna (5) 1-1
Real Valladolid vs Real Mallorca (6) 1-0
Sporting Gijon vs Osasuna (6) 1-1
Racing Santander vs Almeria (6) 0-0
Sevilla CF vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (8) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia (6) 2-2

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Cartagena vs Real Betis Balompie (5)
Cordoba vs Elche (5)
Real Union Club de Irun vs Girona (6)

Spanish Segunda B:

Group 1:

Racing Club de Ferrol vs Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa (6)
Mirandes vs Ponferradina (6)
Sestao River Club vs Montaneros (5)
Barakaldo vs Pontevedra (6) over 2.5 goals
Eibar vs Izarra (8)
Lugo vs Lemona (7)
Compostela vs Deportivo Alaves (6)

Group 2:

Vecindario vs Alcorcon (6)
Universidad Las Palmas vs Conquense (6)
Lanzarote vs Cacareno (4)
Villanovense vs Tenerife II (5)
Real Madrid II vs Puertollano (7)
Guadalajara vs Atletico Madrid II (5)
Toledo vs Real Racing Club Santander II (7)
Gimnastica Torrelavega vs Cerro Reyes Badajoz (7)
Leganes vs Alcala Henares (6)
Real Oviedo vs Real Sporting de Gijon II (9)

Group 3:

Mallorca II vs Denia (5)
Gava vs Sant Andreu (8)
Badalona vs Alcoyano (6)
Orihuela vs Sporting Mahones (6)
Benidorm vs Sabadell (7)
Terrassa vs Espanyol Barcelona II (5)
Ontinyent vs Villajoyosa (8)

Group 4:

Roquetas vs Ceuta (7)
Melilla vs Union Estepona (8)
Real Murcia II vs Lucena (6)
Polideportivo Ejido vs Aguilas (8)
Marbella vs Jerez Industrial (6)
Caravaca vs San Roque (6)
Moratalla vs Ecija Balompie (5)
Real Betis II vs Sangonera Atletico (7)
Real Jaen vs Sevilla II (8)
Granada vs Atletico Ciudad de Murcia (8)

Swiss Super League:

Aarau vs Luzern (5) 0-1
Bellinzona vs Basel (8) 1-2
Neuchatel Xamax vs St.Gallen (6) 1-1

Swiss Challenge League:

Locarno vs Servette (6)
Le Mont vs Biel-Bienne (6)
Schaffhausen vs Lausanne Sports (5)
Wil vs Yverdon Sport (6)
Winterthur vs Vaduz (7)
Gossau vs Lugano (8)
Stade Nyonnais vs Wohlen (5)

Turkish Super Lig:

Manisaspor vs Diyarbakirspor (6) 1-1
Genclerbirligi vs Ankaragucu (6) 1-0
Gaziantepspor vs Eskisehirspor (5) 1-1
Istanbul BB vs Fenerbahce (6) 0-1
Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa (8) 2-0

Ukrainian Premier League:

Chernomorets Odessa vs Tavriya Simferopol (7) 1-1
Obolon Kiev vs Arsenal Kiev (6) 1-0
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava (8) 2-0
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Zorya Lugansk (8) 2-0

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Liverpool Montevideo vs Fenix (6) 1-0
Cerro vs Danubio (6) 1-1
Tacuarembo vs Cerrito (5) 1-1
Racing Club Montevideo vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (6) 1-2

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Centro Italo vs Deportivo Lara (6) 1-1
Yaracuyanos vs Zamora (5) 0-1
Carabobo vs Real Esppor Club (6) 1-2
Caracas vs Atletico El Vigia (8) 2-1
Llaneros de Guanare vs Mineros de Guayana (6) 0-0
Trujillanos vs Monagas SC (6) 0-1
Deportivo Tachira vs Zulia (9) 3-1
Estudiantes de Merida vs Deportivo Italia (6) 1-1
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Aragua (7) 2-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Lanus vs Colon de Santa Fe

Today’s featured game is the Primera Division encounter between Lanus and Colon de Santa Fe. Hosts Lanus aren’t playing as well as we know they’re capable of in this campaign with just four wins from fourteen games. This paltry amount partially explains just why Lanus are twelfth in the Primera Division table instead of being in the top six, where they’re capable of being. Visitors Colon de Santa Fe are playing well and find themselves in third place in the table, just four points off top spot.

The most most predominant reasoning that I can attribute to Lanus’ downfall is their lack of goals scored. Only four sides have scored less goals than they have this season and three of those are in the bottom four places, which needless to say isn’t a good sign. They’ve won a poor two home games out of seven whilst losing a surprising four games on that run. No side has lost more home games than Lanus this season and only a handful can match them. Their most embarassing defeat was the 3-0 humiliation inflicted by newcomers Chacarita Juniors in their last home game. Lanus have only scored one goal in their last three games which simply isn’t good enough, particularly as they’re hosting one of the most in-form signs in Argentina at the moment.

Visitors Colon de Santa Fe are the highest goalscoring side in the Primera Division. They’ve only been beaten once on the road this season but have tended to draw more games than they’ve won. I think it’s fair to classify Colon de Santa Fe as one of the better sides in Argentinian football nowadays and their performances over the past twelve-eighteen months illustrates that perfectly.

These two sides are quite well-matched despite the misleading league table and I expect both sides to go all out for this game. This game doesn’t have all the hallmarks of an over 2.5 goals bet as hosts Lanus aren’t scoring many goals although visitors Colon de Santa Fe are. However, before you dismiss the bet entirely, consider this; the last nine encounters between these two sides on either ground have gone over 2.5 goals and both sides are good enough to maintain this record. Give it some thought!

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.

Friday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Estudiantes De La Plata vs Tigre – -1.75 handicap at 5/4.

Although entering this game on the back of two straight defeats, you have to feel that title challengers Estudiantes De La Plata will rediscover their form against arguably the worst side in the Primera Division. Estudiantes are currently six points behind league leaders Banfield and need to keep up the pressure on them to have any chance of winning the title as there’s just four games remaining for the hosts to do so. Fortunately, all of the statistics point to an Estudiantes win with the hosts having already won five out of six home games this season. They have scored an average of two goals per game whereas they only concede one goal every two games at home. Estudiantes are an excellent footballing side on their day and although that hasn’t been happening as much as it should have lately, they’ve got all the requirements that they need to do so tonight.

Visitors Tigre have really struggled this season, particularly away from home. They’re currently bottom of the Primera Division and have lost six out of their seven away games this season, conceding nearly three goals per game on average. Despite having won their last game to give them a bit of momentum, Tigre remain one of the worst sides in the division and their three consecutive defeats prior to that victory will still be in their minds. A win against a mediocre Godoy Cruz de Mendoza has done little to change my mind on how lowly I consider Tigre to be and I thoroughly expect a well-established and talented Estudiantes to take them apart tonight.

Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win with a -1.75 goal handicap at 5/4.

Lierse SK vs Tubize – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

The Tweede Klasse’s most supported side Lierse tonight entertain Tweede Klasse newcomers Tubize following relegation from the Eerste Klasse. The hosts have been in excellent form overall so far this year with seven wins, five draws, and just one defeat in thirteen games. They’ve won four out of six home games, drawing the other two games, and average scoring over three goals per game at home. That statistic may alarm you a little considering that I’m taking under 2.5 goals on this game but you do have to consider the impact of their recent form (defeat at Turnhout last match and a draw at KVSK United the game before) and also the solid defence of Tubize.

Visitors Tubize have had a very mixed entrance to life in Tweede Klasse with five wins, four draws, and four defeats in thirteen games. Tubize have lost three of their seven away games but have never drawn on the road, winning the other four games. Even more remarkably, Tubize have only won once at home this year, drawing four times and losing once. Tubize are notorious for their compact style of football, hence the reason that they’ve only lost one game of their last five. Tubize prefer to draw games than to win or lose them, seemingly, and I can see a similar tactic being employed for the difficult trip to Lierse.

In my opinion, Lierse will win this game. However, there’s little quality difference between these two sides so I feel a raucous crowd and powerful level of home form should be just enough to see Lierse steal a win off Tubize without conceding a goal. Even as a worst-case scenario I can’t see either side scoring more than a goal in this game!

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Montana vs Pirin Blagoevgrad – home win at 7/5.

This should be a tough game for Montana as they’re facing a side that they’re arguably going to end up fighting with at the end of the A PFG season to stay in the division. Montana’s home form hasn’t been particularly conclusive with two wins, two draws, and two defeats thus far. However, one thing that Montana have done very well is made themselves hard to beat, losing just three of their twelve games this season. Montana have played some good football of late and are unbeaten in their last three games, winning their last two games consecutively.

Visitors Pirin Blagoevgrad are capable of going toe-to-toe with Montana but have been atrocious on the road this year with three defeats, one draw, and just one victory in five away games. They’ve scored a paltry three goals on this run but have conceded eight. Pirin Blagoevgrad have learned over the years that they must make the most of their home form, which is predominantly why they manage to stay in the division. Pirin Blagoevgrad have a lot of problems scoring goals, however, and that’s applicable for both home and away games. With their medicore attack coming up against a resolute Montana defence, it’s hard to see the visitors scoring a goal today.

This game should be a low-scoring affair between two average sides but Montana have enough momentum and determination to get a goal here, which really should win the game given Pirin Blagoevgrad’s problems scoring goals.

Verdict: Montana victory at 7/5.

NK Zagreb vs Zadar – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.

I have to admit to being somewhat astounded by how strongly the odds favour NK Zagreb to win this game. Don’t get me wrong – I do think that they’ll win the game – I just didn’t think I’d ever see the bookies give 8/11 on a win for a side that has a similar record to the side that they’re facing. Admittedly, NK Zagreb are a lot more capable than Zadar but they’re rarely shown in this season. NK Zagreb are the second worst home side in the Prva Liga with just two wins in six games, losing the other four. The main reasoning behind that is their lack of goals scored, something that is beginning to prove a real nuisance for them. Despite two wins in their past four games, NK Zagreb are yet to break into their stride so this bet does take on a more “risky” mantle but I still feel the chances of success are good.

Visitors Zadar are ironically the second worst side on the road in the Prva Liga, matching up to NK Zagreb’s tag of being the second worst home side in the division. They’ve lost five out of six away games and have scored a meager four goals in those games. Zadar have learned from experience that they need to make their home games count so that’s what they’ve done. Zadar tend to approach away games as if they’ve already lost and to basically limit the damage caused. Zadar are relatively big conceders on the road but a goal-shy NK Zagreb shouldn’t be capable of putting many past them, particularly given their topsy-turvy form of late.

Overall, two average/poor sides are competing in this game and I expect it to show in a very tense, low-scoring affair where a point is valuable to both sides. Either side is capable of winning the game but I don’t see either side scoring many goals, if indeed any.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin – home win at 5/4.

This is a risky call considering that Korona Kielce are without a win in their last five games, losing four in a row before drawing their last game away to Lechia Gdansk. Korona Kielce are the biggest conceders in the Ekstraklasa at present but I’m happy to partially overlook that due to their impressive goalscoring record, particularly at home where only Ruch Chorzow and Legia Warsaw have outscored them. Korona Kielce know that their home games are the ones that will count in their battle against relegation and have only lost three of their seven games at home this year. Whereas that’s not a great record, their goalscoring record frankly is great and they’ve got a lot of respect from myself for going down with such a fight. I’m hoping that the international break has given Korona Kielce a break and time to regroup. They are only missing defender Nikola Milajlovic, who serves out the final game of his ban after stupidly slapping a Wisla Krakow player, so Korona Kielce are more than capable of remaining potent for this game.

Only Cracovia Krakow have scored less goals than Zaglebie Lubin this year, which is why they’re battling against relegation and will most likely be doing so for the remainder of the season. Despite two straight wins entering this game, the international break will have broken up their momentum somewhat. Their away form is poor with four defeats in seven games, drawing once, and winning twice. Zaglebie Lubin can’t even average a goal scored per game at home, let alone away from home. Only Polonia Warsaw have conceded more goals on the road than Zaglebie Lubin, which has to be concerning for them as they’re facing one of the biggest goalscoring sides at home in the Ekstraklasa tonight. To top that, Zaglebie Lubin are missing Pawlowski, Bartczak, Sretenovic, Kedziora, Kowbel, and most importantly – Kocot. This is quite a hefty injury list for an already weak squad and the missing Przemyslaw Kocot will be a big loss for them in this game. Lastly, the decision of manager Smuda to become manager of Poland will have surely had an affect on the players even though Smuda is only due to take over this position in mid-December.

Korona Kielce have scored five goals in their last three games so they’re definitely capable of doing enough to win this game. Their Real Madrid-esque policy of “we’ll score more than you” appears to be flawed in that they tend to concede a hell of a lot of goals. However, visitors Zaglebie Lubin have a poor goalscoring record both home and away so I do feel that Korona Kielce have enough to win this game.

Verdict: Korona Kielce victory at 5/4.

Legia Warsaw vs Polonia Warsaw -1.75 handicap at 11/10.

We all know that Legia Warsaw are one of the best sides in Poland. To top that, Legia Warsaw are the second best home side in the Ekstraklasa so far this year with six wins and one draw in seven home games. They average over two goals scored per game and atypically rarely concede goals, averaging just one conceded every 3.5 games at home. Legia Warsaw’s away form has been a bit of a problem this year but again, they rarely concede when on the road too. The claim that Legia Warsaw are “boring” largely stems from this fact, and I certainly can’t oppose those claims either! Legia Warsaw have won their last three games consecutively and winning is in their nature so they’ve got everything they need to win this game by a couple of goals at least.

Polonia Warsaw are following up one of their best Ekstraklasa seasons to date with one of the worst they’ve had for some time. They’ve won just three games out of their thirteen this year and find themselves second from bottom due to the fact that only Korona Kielce have conceded more goals than they have. Polonia Warsaw have lost five out of seven away games this season, drawing once and winning once. They average conceding two goals per away game and also carry no momentum into this game with four defeats in their last five games.

Everything here points to a home win and everything points to the handicap’s success too. Generally, in accordance with Sod’s Law, this means it will fail but logic and statistics all point to a successful bet here, particularly as Legia welcome back strikers Mieciel and Chinyama.

Verdict: Legia Warsaw victory with a -1.75 handicap at 11/10.

Rapid Bucharest vs Gaz Metan Medias -1.75 handicap at 11/10.

I think it’s fair to say that Rapid Bucharest have been one of the best sides in Romania this year, if not the best! Their football has been outstanding and only Vaslui have won more league games than Rapid Bucharest have. Rapid Bucharest average scoring over two goals per game currently, which is light years ahead of any other side in the Liga. Rapid Bucharest have a tendency to concede goals but they are more reliable at preventing such when playing at home, naturally. The hosts actually average nearly three goals per game at home, which is the fundamental point behind my bet tonight. Rapid Bucharest’s recent form hasn’t been as convincing so this bet does have an element of risk but their overall abilty should shine through here.

Visitors Gaz Metan Medias have impressed me this year by being hard to beat for just about any opponent that they face. They’ve only lost twice at home and twice away from home this year, which is good for a side that I consider to be average at best. They’re unbeaten in five league games now, drawing four and winning once. However, the games that Gaz Metan Medias lose tend to be against the big sides. Three of their four defeats this season have come against giants Steaua Bucharest, CFR Cluj, and in-form Vaslui. Their other defeat was a one-off defeat against newly-promoted Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt which I’m prepared to write off but this game against Rapid Bucharest should really test their resolve.

Although Gaz Metan Medias don’t tend to concede many goals, Rapid Bucharest love to score goals and I rate their attack much higher than I rate Gaz Metan Medias’ defence.

Verdict: Rapid Bucharest victory with a -1.75 handicap at 11/10.

Prestatyn Town vs Bala Town – home win at 4/5.

Prestatyn Town are without a win in their last three games but have the perfect opportunity to get back to winning games as they take on a Bala Town side that are finally beginning to taste the bittersweet life of the Welsh Premier League. Despite their winless run, Prestatyn Town are notoriously strong at home and are one of three sides in the Premier League yet to lose at home along with Neath Athletic and The New Saints. Prestatyn Town have won three of their five home games and have drawn the other two games. Prestatyn Town are a difficult side to play against, something they proved on various levels last year and look to be set on being difficult to beat this year too.

Bala Town enjoyed a fairytale start to life in the Premier League but have taken a turn for the worse since then. Without a win in their last five games, Bala Town’s goal-shy antics has left them with three defeats and two draws entering this game. Only Porthmadog and Newi Cefn Druids have scored less goals than Bala Town this year and they’ve both in the bottom three of the table. Bala Town’s strength is not conceding many goals but the trip to Prestatyn often yields goals for the home side. Bala Town have lost three of their five away games, drawing once and winning just once. They’ve managed to score just two goals on this run and don’t look likely to change that record tonight with no momentum to break it up.

Although both of these sides are devoid of a win in recent times, you have to feel that Prestatyn Town have enough experience and home advantage to win this game tonight.

Verdict: Prestatyn Town to win at 4/5.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Estudiantes De La Plata vs Tigre (8) -1.75 handicap
Lanus vs Colon de Santa Fe (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet

Australian A-League:

Adelaide United vs Gold Coast United (5) 1-0

Austrian Liga 1:

First Vienna vs Austria Vienna II (6) over 2.5 goals
Dornbirn vs Salzburg II (5)
Lustenau vs Hartberg (6)
Admira Wacker vs Austria Lustenau (5)
St.Polten vs SCR Altach (6)

Belgian Tweede Klasse:

Lierse SK vs Tubize (7) under 2.5 goals

Bulgarian A PFG:

Montana vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (6) under 2.5 goals

Croatian Prva Liga:

NK Zagreb vs Zadar (6) under 2.5 goals

English Championship:

Swansea City vs Derby County (8)

English League One:

Southend United vs Milton Keynes Dons (6)

French Ligue 1:

Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain (7) 1-0

German Bundesliga 2:

Rot-Weiss Ahlen vs Paderborn (6)
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Energie Cottbus (6) over 2.5 goals
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1860 Munich (8)

Greek B Ethniki:

Panserraikos vs Ethnikos Piraeus (7)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC (7) 1-2

Italian Serie B:

Vicenza vs Frosinone (7)

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Excelsior vs De Graafschap (6)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Stormvogels Telstar (8)
Veendam vs RBC Roosendaal (5)
Den Bosch vs Zwolle (7)
Eindhoven vs Omniworld (6)
Volendam vs Helmond Sport (6) over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard vs Top Oss (5)
Go Ahead Eagles vs MVV Maastricht (8) over 2.5 goals
Haarlem vs Dordrecht ’90 (7)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Emmen (8)

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin (6) 1-0
Polonia Bytom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 1-0
Legia Warsaw vs Polonia Warsaw (8) -1.75 handicap

Romanian Liga:

Unirea Alba Iulia vs Otelul Galati (6) 1-1
Rapid Bucharest vs Gaz Metan Medias (8) -1.75 handicap

Welsh Premier League:

Haverfordwest County vs Llanelli (7) 1-2
Prestatyn Town vs Bala Town (7) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!