Please heed the usual warning – take great care when betting on the UEFA Europa League as it’s greatly unpredictable and usually very short of value!

My featured game from scant pickings on a dismal thursday is the encounter in Poland between Lech Poznan and Manchester City in the UEFA Europa League. These two sides played out a cracking game of football a couple of weeks ago in the City of Manchester Stadium and I personally feel Lech were hard done to with the result as the game itself was deceptively even.

However, times have changed since then in both camps so it’ll be interesting to see how this one develops. For instance, you may recall me mentioning that manager Zielinski was under pressure ahead of their giant match at weekend against a good Wisla Krakow side with the manager publicly admitting that he “didn’t know” what the problem was with his team. However, Lech went on to win the game and then bafflingly sacked Zielinski anyway, replacing him with ex-Barcelona footballer and ex-Polonia Warsaw manager Jose Maria Bakero. Bakero is notorious for encouraging his sides to play football and I personally deem him as one of the better managers in Polish football at the present time – only a rash Polonia Warsaw chairman sacked him in bizarre circumstances – so it’ll be interesting to see how he does in charge of Lech. It’ll be even more interesting given that the Lech fans were singing for Zielinski to stay ahead of the game against Wisla at weekend so will they welcome him here? It’s hard to say, especially after the other antics at weekend whereby the Wisla fans incited attacks from Lech fans via some offensive chants. Atypically, that wouldn’t matter much – that’s just football – but Wisla’s fans launched bottles at the opposing fans and then the police opened the gates for the Lech fans to attack the Wisla fans (to avoid the fans tearing down the new fencing(!)) it becomes a tad more serious, although ironically both sets of fans ended up attacking the police. Wisla’s Cleber was seriously injured in the game and the ambulance couldn’t get on the field to assist him, which makes Lech’s new stadium look all the more unreliable. Numerous players suffered some injuries in this encounter and basically, it paints a terrible picture of the Polish venue ahead of Euro 2012 so we really have to expect a much more disciplined game tonight in front of all of Europe.

Visitors Manchester City lack the saga of the stadium issues but what they lack in that department is made up for by the internal problems at the club with the players allegedly having fallen out with manager Roberto Mancini. It’s always difficult to know how legitimate these reports are but one thing I can confirm is that City possess three very good strikers – Tevez, Adebayor, and Santa Cruz – and all three of them want to leave for varying reasons. That is no good whatsoever because City play an unadventurous 4-5-1 and need their chosen striker to be in top form and I don’t see how any of the afore-mentioned possibly can be in top form. City have looked poor for three consecutive games now – in the flattering 4-1 victory against tonight’s opponents Lech, in the 0-3 defeat at home against Arsenal, and the 2-1 defeat at Wolverhampton Wanderers at weekend. To further that point, rumours are that Mancini has also fallen out with Gareth Barry for allegedly going out drinking in Scotland with other players, not to mention the fact that Yaya Toure has already stated his desire to return to Barcelona. City are on the verge of a real power struggle and given how unconvincingly they played against Lech first time around, I’m not convinced they’ll win tonight. The shining light for City at the moment is David Silva, who is looking absolutely immaculate in midfield. It was only his brilliance that allowed a somewhat bumbling Adebayor to bag a hat-trick against Lech a couple of weeks ago and he’ll be the one to make things happen for City tonight. However, City look disjointed at the moment and particularly vulnerable in defence so I’m not convinced by them at all ahead of this game tonight.

So, yeah – I expect a fairly random game here. Lech have impressed me in European football this season and I expect that to continue despite the change of manager. City have played well in Europe too so I expect both sides to give it a shot tonight. If Silva turns up then City will score and if Rudnevs turns up then Lech will score; that’s my logic here. I don’t think either side is good enough defensively to keep the other out and I quite fancy over 2.5 goals as a result. However, my tip for this game is both sides to score as I’d be surprised to see anything but both sides scoring in this game, especially as I think Lech could have scored more with the sharp Rudnevs starting instead of Tshibamba in Manchester and City could have scored more if Adebayor hadn’t looked like he’d never seen a football at times!

Team news – Lech have doubts over Peszko and Bosacki whereas City have doubts over Tevez, who is allegedly in Argentina.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

AEK Athens vs Anderlecht - home win at 27/20.

AEK Athens may have played well at points this season but I still have little faith in them as they’re nowhere near the side they once were due to financial difficulties. However, my reasoning for this game comes from the Anderlecht camp. Not only did they have a tough game at Racing Genk at weekend, which they impressively won 1-2, but they are crippled behind the scenes with some hefty losses. Biglia and Deschacht miss the game through injury, not to mention Diandy and Marecek. Legear and Boussoufa are carrying knocks but should be fit to start. Anderlecht are far from in pristine condition though and AEK are decent enough to take advantage of that on a good night. This tip is far from a dead cert bet but I think that the odds don’t really reflect the problems that Anderlecht face ahead of this match so my call is the home win tonight.

Verdict: AEK Athens to win at 27/20.

Accumulator fodder:

PSV Eindhoven, Porto, Sevilla CF.

Recommended bets:

AEK Athens, PSV Eindhoven, and Sevilla CF at 2/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

UEFA Europa League:

PAOK Salonika vs Villarreal (4) under 2.5 goals
Club Brugge vs Dinamo Zagreb (6) over 2.5 goals
BATE Borisov vs Sheriff Tiraspol (7) under 2.5 goals
Dynamo Kiev vs AZ Alkmaar (7) 2-1
CSKA Moscow vs Palermo (7) over 2.5 goals
Lausanne Sports vs Sparta Prague (4) 2-2
Lech Poznan vs Manchester City (5) 1-2
Juventus vs Salzburg (7) over 2.5 goals
Rosenborg BK vs Atletico Madrid (3) 1-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Aris Salonika (7) under 2.5 goals
AA Gent vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (6) 1-1
Levski Sofia vs LOSC Lille (7) under 2.5 goals
Hajduk Split vs Zenit St.Petersburg (4) 2-1, draw no bet
AEK Athens vs Anderlecht (6) 2-1
OB Odense vs Young Boys Bern (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Getafe vs VfB Stuttgart (6) 1-0
Sampdoria vs Metalist Kharkiv (7) 1-0
PSV Eindhoven vs Debreceni VSC (8) over 2.5 goals
Paris Saint-Germain vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Sevilla CF vs Karpaty Lviv (8) over 2.5 goals
Steaua Bucharest vs FC Utrecht (6) 1-1
Liverpool vs SSC Napoli (6) 1-0
Rapid Vienna vs CSKA Sofia (7) 2-0
Porto vs Besiktas JK (8) over 2.5 goals

Brazilian Serie A:

Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras (6) under 2.5 goals
Vasco da Gama vs Gremio Prudente (7) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!