Ooh look everyone – Greek Super League games that aren’t fixed…

After yesterday’s roaring success in the Ekstraklasa, I’ve decided to stay with that theme today by making the game between title challengers Lech Poznan and over-achieving Lechia Gdansk my game of the day. The two side had opposite aims at the start of the season but both find themselves a closer to each other in the table than they’d have expected so we should see an interesting game tonight.

Lech Poznan enter this game on the back of a 0-0 draw at Reymonta against Wisla Krakow. Atypically, that’s a very good result against fellow title challengers but the result hasn’t helped them in their quest for the Ekstraklasa title and nor has Wisla’s dominant win at Piast Gliwice last match so Lech need to win today to have a chance of winning the title. A win tonight lifts them above Legia Warsaw into second place and three points behind Wisla. There will only be four games remaining for both sides after this game has been played and Lech know that just one defeat for Wisla (combined with their own continued form) will leave the title to be decided on goal difference, something that Lech are currently five behind Wisla on, something they know that they must improve to have a chance.

Now we’ve established the motivation of Lech Poznan, let’s take a look at how they deliver. They’ve won nine out of twelve home games this season, which is good, and only Legia Warsaw have scored more at home than they have with Lech averaging scoring nearly two goals per game. Only Legia, Wisla, and Jagiellonia have conceded less at home than Lech have this season so they’re generally quite assured at home. Star striker Robert Lewandowski has attracted an awful lot of attention this season from other European clubs and it’s easy to see why with him constantly spear-heading Lech’s potent attack and having scored thirteen goals in twenty-three games this season. Lewandowski is about 70% sure to leave in summer for England, Germany, Russia, or Ukraine, so this is basically Lech’s last shot at the title for a while barring a miracle signing! Krivets has adapted well to the side since signing from Belarusian champions BATE Borisov and Lech are looking very strong as a result. Lech have played five consecutive games, two away from home, without conceding a goal so they’ve become extremely composed and confident over the winter break defensively, which aids their goal difference immensely as a result. Lech have won all four home games since returning from the winter break, beating the -1.75 handicap three times with the only exception being the game against Legia Warsaw, which still remained an impressive win nonetheless. Lech have very much looked the real deal this season, moreso in the second half of the season, and I see no reason as to why that won’t continue tonight.

Lechia Gdansk are a side that have over-achieved a lot this season but full credit to them for that. They’re unbeaten in their last three games consecutively and have only lost three out of twelve away games this season so they’re certainly a tough nut to crack. They’re not a particularly good side but they’re quite efficient in preventing other sides from scoring as the fact that only the three big sides of the division and GKS Belchatow have conceded less on the road than Lechia have. Lechia were battling relegation last season and I’m impressed that they’ve evaded that battle this season. So why back Lech on the handicap? I’d normally think twice about this call but Lechia have been utterly destroyed ahead of this game with injuries/suspensions and they don’t have a big enough squad to cover for their missing players. They’re missing strikers Dawidowski and Zablocki, midfielders Bajic, Piatek, and Bak, as well as defenders Cvirik, Wisniewski, and Oslowski so to say that they’re under-strength would be a massive understatement.

As I mentioned earlier, Lechia have only lost three away games in the Ekstraklasa this season but it’s worth noting that two of those games were against Lech’s fellow title rivals Legia and Wisla and both of those two beat the -1.75 goal handicap against over-achieving Lechia Gdansk for obvious reasons. Lech Poznan are well placed to repeat the feat of their rivals tonight and Lechia Gdansk are well placed to succumb to a convincing defeat again too so I thoroughly expect a home win tonight. Lech are potent enough at home at the moment to beat the -1.75 handicap and with the above information in mind, 6/5 on that to occur looks like good odds to me.

Verdict: Lech Poznan to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 6/5.

Wednesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Barcelona vs Internazionale – Barcelona to qualify at 5/4.

This is the game on everyone’s minds today. What will happen? Will Mourinho stifle the Catalan maestros? Or will Inter succumb to the inevitable defeat that Barcelona tend to dish out at home? Either way, this should be a good game to watch so ensure that you do.

My personal take on this game is that Barcelona will qualify. I’ve got two scorelines in my head – 2-0 and 4-0 – but I’m favouring the under 2.5 goals approach due to Mourinho’s defensive ability. I suppose it really depends if and when Barcelona score the first goal. If it’s early on, Barcelona should be able to do the damage. However, if they fall into the trap that they’ve fallen into a few times already this season i.e. struggling to break down men behind the ball then they’re going to struggle tonight. However, Inter pulled all the trump cards in Milan due to Mr Mourinho and his superb ability. He paid attention to every tiny detail to make Barcelona’s stay uncomfortable – and it was. He made the pitch hard to play on, marked Messi out of the game, ensured Inter took their chances and defended like troopers. Mourinho has played his hand; it’s now time to see what Guardiola can do. The pitch at Nou Camp is long and wide – it suits Barcelona down to the ground. The pitch will be naturally good for passing and Barcelona will really stretch Inter tonight. Inter are going out if they concede early on, in my opinion – that’s where the 4-0 could originate from. However, I think something like a goal each half for the ever-impressive Barcelona should see the job done as I don’t see Inter scoring unless it gets late on without a Barcelona goal, which means they’ll push forwards and Eto’o's blinding pace will destroy them on the counter-attack. Either way, can anyone see Barcelona not being in the final this year? It’s got to end some time, I suppose, and no side has won two consecutive Champions League trophies but that record also has to end sometime so it should be an interesting game, even for the superstitious types.

However, I can’t overlook odds of 5/4 for Barcelona to qualify. Would anyone be surprised to see the Catalans annihlate Inter tonight? No. We all know they’re capable of it and only the best display this season from Inter won them the home leg – I don’t see lightning striking the same place twice. Barcelona have beaten the -1.75 goal handicap four times in four home wins this season in the Champions League with the only exception being their only other game which was a one-off home defeat against Rubin Kazan but Barcelona still managed to score in that game. Barcelona beat Inter 2-0 here earlier this season and that’s despite Inter not conceding much on the road at all this season in the Champions League so I can’t help but feel that Barcelona can do the damage tonight and progress to the next round although it’s also worth looking at them to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at evens.

Verdict: Barcelona to qualify at 5/4.

Persipura Jayapura vs Changchun Yatai – away win at 1/3.

Why am I backing a selection at 1/3? Well, it’s just too long, really. Generally, odds of 1/10 are the minimum for a side facing Indonesian opposition in the Asian Champions League so why Changchun are 1/3 to win aganist a side that they beat 9-0 at home is beyond me. The game is redundant and Changchun aren’t the best in China by any stretch of the imagination but I do feel that the odds are too long for the away win here – they really should be about 1/8 in my opinion – so perhaps consider a handicap on the away win, cheeky though it is in this pointless game as Changchun are far and away the better of these two sides.

Verdict: Changchun Yatai to win at 1/3.

AEK Athens vs PAOK Salonika – home win at evens.

Ah, a game that has a purpose at long last! I now return to Super League betting because neither side is a slave to money. Instead, they’re now playing for that money. Greece has a strage setup whereby the sides that finish second-fifth in the table compete for the second Champions League place after the champions of the Super League (Panathinaikos this season) take the first place. Therefore, this game is important. AEK Athens have had a good season considering their financial difficulties and the exodus of some big players and I’ve been impressed with how they’ve handled themselves. They’ve got a good record against PAOK Salonika with eight wins in their last nine meetings at either ground, drawing once. Interestingly enough, AEK have won four of those games 1-0, including both of their last two meetings against PAOK so that may be worth a cheeky punt today. However, AEK look good value for this game either way as PAOK ended the season somewhat disappointingly despite a very good three quarters of a season so I’m not convinced they’ll be able to impose themselves upon AEK like they did against other sides this season. Either way, the home win at evens looks good enough to back today in what should be a fairly narrow home win for the giants against the imposters.

Verdict: AEK Athens to win at evens.

Kalmar vs Orebro - home win at 10/11.

It’s that crazy time again when Ian trusts his instincts – oh dear!

Can I substantiate why Kalmar will win this game with logic? No, not really! I’m basing this entirely upon the ruling of Murphy’s Law. Kalmar are due a win and Orebro are due a loss. Kalmar have been poor so far in the Allsvenskan and are the only side remaining in the division that are yet to win a game. We all know how good they can be; they’re simply not showing it – yet. However, they’ve done ok lately with an unlucky 3-2 defeat at Malmo, a fairly respectable draw at in-form Mjallby Solvesborg, and a 2-2 draw at a difficult GAIS Goteborg last match. The win is coming and I think Kalmar are starting to gather a bit of momentum from their stout displays so don’t underestimate them tonight.

Orebro have been superb on the road this season with three wins from four away games, only losing at Malmo but winning at reigning champions AIK Solna and winning a tricky away game against a physical Gefle. However, they are certainly due a defeat and don’t travel too well, generally tending to struggle with goalscoring away from home irrespective of their form this season. Orebro are in fine form ahead of this game with four wins in five games but this impressive statistic just makes me lean more towards Kalmar, for some reason!

Just to finally convince you all that my instincts are crazy, Kalmar have lost both of their last two meetings against Orebro, one at home and one away. However, I still feel there’s value in the home win at 10/11 – the curse of instincts, eh?! If I’ve only managed to convince you to stay away from betting on this game then this preview is a success. If you’ve backed me up with this selection then good luck – you’re all crazy too!

Verdict: Kalmar to win at 10/11.

Accumulator fodder:

Changchun Yatai, Kashima Antlers, Bunyodkor, BATE Borisov, Ekranas Panevezys, Suduva Marijampole, Bodo Glimt, Moss, Lech Poznan, Jagiellonia Bialystok.

Barcelona, Lech Poznan, and Moss at 3/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

UEFA Champions League:

Barcelona vs Internazionale (7) 2-0

Copa Libertadores:

Universitario Lima vs Sao Paulo (7) 1-1
Flamengo vs Corinthians (6) 2-1
Banfield vs Internacional (6) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game

Asian Champions League:

Persipura Jayapura vs Changchun Yatai (8) over 2.5 goals
Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma vs Melbourne Victory (6) under 2.5 goals
Kashima Antlers vs Jeonbuk Motors (8) 2-1
Beijing Guoan vs Kawasaki Frontale (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Bunyodkor vs Al Wahda (8) under 2.5 goals
Zob Ahan vs Al Ittihad (5) 1-1
Al Jazira vs Esteghlal (5) 0-1
Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa (6) 0-0

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:

Torpedo Zhodino vs Neman Grodno (7) 0-0
Dinamo Minsk vs Vitebsk (6) 1-0
Belshina vs Minsk (6) 1-1
Dinamo Brest vs Naftan Novopolotsk (7) over 2.5 goals
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Dnepr Mogilev (6) 1-0
BATE Borisov vs Partizan Minsk (9) -1.75 handicap

Danish 1st Division:

Roskilde vs Kolding (6) over 2.5 goals
Thisted vs Braband (7)

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Olmedo Riobamba vs Deportivo Quito (6) 0-1

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

VPS Vaasa vs JJK Jyvaskyla (4) 1-1

French Ligue 1:

Valenciennes vs Girondins de Bordeaux (7) 1-1

Greek Super League:

AEK Athens vs PAOK Salonika (7) 1-0
Aris Salonika vs Olympiakos Piraeus (4) 1-2

International Friendly:

South Africa vs Jamaica (7) 0-0

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Maziekiai vs Zalgiris Vilnius (6) 0-1
Klaipeda vs Banga Gargzdai (5) 1-2
Atletas vs Ekranas Panevezys (9) 0-2
Taurus Taurage vs Vetra Vilnius (6) 1-2
Suduva Marijampole vs Siauliai (8) under 2.5 goals

Norwegian Divisjon 1:

Bodo Glimt vs Nybergsund (8)
Follo vs Alta (5)
Moss vs Tromsdalen (7)

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Ruch Chorzow vs Polonia Bytom (6) 2-1
Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk (8) -1.75 handicap
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Arka Gdynia (8) 2-0

Russian Premier League:

CSKA Moscow vs Zenit St.Petersburg (5) 0-1, draw no bet

Singaporean S-League:

Sengkang Punggol vs Tampines Rovers (7) 0-1

Swedish Allsvenskan:

BK Hacken Goteborg vs GAIS Goteborg (4) 1-1
Kalmar vs Orebro (6) 1-0
Halmstads vs Gefle (7) 0-0

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Caracas vs Deportivo Tachira (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game

Enjoy your free betting tips!