I almost can’t believe that I’m daring to venture near Salzburg with any kind of bet as I consider them one of the unluckiest sides for me to bet on but here we are! The featured game is between Salzburg and Levski Sofia in the UEFA Europa League. The Austrian hosts have won two games out of two so far, impressively winning 2-1 away to Lazio and 2-0 at home to Villarreal. An unimpressive run of UEFA Champions League qualifiers at the start of the year saw me lose a good deal of faith in the Austrian champions but their results of late have gone some way to convincing me that they’re getting back to their best. A win today sees Salzburg virtually assured of qualification in my opinion so they’ll surely be going into this game with all guns blazing tonight! The Austrians aren’t big goalscorers, however, so why the handicap you ask? Well, the bookies have overlooked some key information about Levski Sofia – over the past few weeks they’ve had massive issues with the selling of some big players and a massive drop in form as a result. There are massive problems internally and externally, something highly visible from the fact that they lost 4-0 at home to a misfiring Lazio side that somehow managed to lose 2-1 at home to Salzburg! Levski Sofia have lost three of their last four domestic games, drawing the other and I don’t think I’m being unfair by saying that three of those games are games that they could have won in the dark with their previous squad. However, issues are now highly visible and embarassing defeats at home to Beroe and at home to Chernomorets Burgas will have knocked the remaining team’s confidence in a big way. This game couldn’t have come at a worse time for Levski Sofia as they simply don’t have the quality to match Salzburg and certainly don’t have the momentum for it. For me, taking the home win at -1.75 handicap odds of 10/11 looks a real bargain today – it may even be worth taking a bigger handicap if you feel bold.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Salzburg vs Levski Sofia - home win with -1.75 handicap at evens – see introduction for full details.
BATE Borisov vs AEK Athens – home win at 8/5. This is a relatively dubious call but I’m going to ride it. Belarus is a difficult place to play in anyway, especially for poor travellers like Greeks AEK Athens. Hosts BATE Borisov have already won the Vysshaya Liga so have 100% focus on this competition. They’ve lost two games from two so far and can consider themselves rather unfortunate to have lost at home to Everton in their last Europa League outing. The Belarusian side are good and have some good experience in European competition nowadays. As they absolutely must obtain three points today to have any chance of qualification, the hosts will be going all out to win this game today and they do have the quality to achieve the victory. Visitors AEK Athens enter this game with just one win in four games, losing the other three. To say they’re under-performing is a pretty big understatement. AEK Athens still have ability but it’s showing rarely and a tough night in Belarus against a highly-motivated host is the last thing that this fragile club needs currently with their domestic campaign on the rocks. I’ll be surprised if AEK Athens try for anything but a draw here because they’ve got bigger fish to fry at the moment so the home win at 8/5 could boast some value today.
Celtic vs Hamburger SV – away win at 5/4. I’ve never been overly fond of backing the away side at Parkhead but frankly, Scottish football has sank to a new low. The league standard in general is slipping so rapidly that if they’re not careful, Scotland will lose their co-efficient points and lose a UEFA Champions League place. Celtic have been far from impressive in this competition so far, drawing at home to Rapid Vienna and losing away to Hapoel Tel-Aviv despite leading in that game. Celtic are even struggling to break down clubs in their own league of late with a 0-0 draw at home to Motherwell becoming their latest casualty. Today, however, they welcome a much better side – Hamburger SV – who actually do have the capability to run rings around the Scots. Hamburger SV have only lost one competitive game in their last fourteen games, which was the 3-0 defeat to a very impressive Rapid Vienna outfit in Austria a month or so ago. Celtic aren’t good enough to match the Austrians so I can’t see a similar result occurring. Celtic never make games easy here but Hamburger SV simply have too much quality and goalscoring potential for the hosts to have any hope of taking anything away from this game. I respect their loyal fans and their successful past but frankly that’s all they have nowadays. Even the bookies are giving 2/1 on a home win here and it’s no surprise either, considering the lack of actual quality in the squad. For me, the away win at 5/4 is something of a bargain for a very good Hamburger SV to overcome Celtic tonight.
Cerrito vs Danubio – away win at evens. Uruguayan giants Danubio head to Cerrito in an attempt to win their fourth consecutive game. The league leaders have already won three from four away games this season and newly-promoted Cerrito are looking likely to change that with just one win in their last four games, losing two games along the way. The hosts today currently tend to perform better away from home than at home, which isn’t very South American at all, really! The visitors have long been one of Uruguay’s biggest and best clubs and I thoroughly expect it to show today with the momentum they have and the quality they possess. Frankly, evens on the away win here looks a bargain to me!
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Salzburg vs Levski Sofia (9) -1.75 handicap
Lazio vs Villarreal (7) 2-1
Sheriff Tiraspol vs FC Twente Enschede (8) 0-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Fenerbahce (6) 2-1
BATE Borisov vs AEK Athens (6) 1-0
SL Benfica vs Everton (4) 1-1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Toulouse (8) 2-1
Club Brugge vs Partizan Belgrade (8) 2-0
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Copenhagen (8) 2-1
Sparta Prague vs CFR Cluj (6) 1-1
Austria Vienna vs Werder Bremen (5) 2-2
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs CD Nacional (7) 2-1
FC Poli Timisoara vs Anderlecht (6) 0-0
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Dinamo Zagreb (8) 3-1
Valencia CF vs Slavia Prague (9) -1.75 handicap
LOSC Lille vs Genoa (7) 1-1
Celtic vs Hamburger SV (7) 0-2
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Rapid Vienna (8) 1-1
FK Ventspils vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (7) 0-1
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Heerenveen (5) 0-0
Fulham vs AS Roma (6) 1-1
CSKA Sofia vs Basel (6) 1-1
Galatasaray vs Dinamo Bucharest (7) 2-1
Panathinaikos vs Sturm Graz (6) 2-1
Copa Nissan Sudamericana:
Fluminense vs Universidad de Chile (6) 0-0
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs Vejle (7)
Russian Division 1:
Energiya Khabarovsk vs Anzhi Makhachkala (6)
Luch-Energiya Vladivostok vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (7)
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs NoSta Novotroitsk (6)
Sibir Novosibirsk vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (8)
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (6)
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Vityaz Podolsk (8)
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs Baltika Kaliningrad (7)
Salyut Belgorod vs FK Krasnodor (7)
Metallurg Lipetsk vs Cherno Novorosisk (6)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Liverpool Montevideo vs Tacuarembo (7) 2-0
Cerrito vs Danubio (8) 0-2
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo (9) 3-1
Central Espanol vs Penarol (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!