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FC Schaffhausen vs Lugano

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Today’s secondary featured game is the Challenge League game between Schaffhausen and Lugano.

Atypical mid-table dwellers Schaffhausen are notorious for their defensive style of football and any side that comes to the Breite has to be wary of that or they’ll suffer. The hosts have only lost a handful of home games in the Challenge League so far this season and that’s entirely down to their mean defence. However, with that stout defending tends to come poor attacking and the fact is that only Valente scores goals for the hosts. You’ll occasionally see striker partner Rossini bag or even Georgian midfielder Ivanishvili bag to support the cause but they’re not a strong attacking side and I wouldn’t mind betting that Schaffhausen will “park the bus” against Lugano today as they have to play to their strengths in this game. They’ve got a fairly mixed record at home against Lugano but ultimately, they tend to be undone by one of the best sides in the league and I think they may be today. Admittedly, Schaffhausen do bring good momentum into this game following back-to-back wins and that must be taken into consideration, irrespective of the fact that they’ve played two very poor sides. I would pay attention to the fact that Locarno scored at Schaffhausen last match, however, because it means Schaffhausen have conceded in all three home games since returning from the winter break and have lost half of their home games this season during that time so you can see the correlation here. Schaffhausen even lost at home to newly-promoted Delemont so I can see gaps appearing in their defence as the season goes on, hence the selection today.

Lugano are simply one of the best sides in the Challenge League. Truth be told, they’ve been in the Challenge League for far too long now – they should have been promoted to the Super League ages ago. Lugano stand a good chance of being promoted this year as they’re just two points behind Liechtenstein-based Vaduz with a game in hand. Only one side is automatically promoted from the Challenge League to the Super League whilst the second-placed side has to play in a play-off so you can rest assured that Lugano will want to push ahead of Vaduz before the end of the season, especially with the two sides not having to play each other again this season. Lugano have already won eight out of ten Challenge League away games this season because they boast the best defence in the division whilst averaging scoring over two goals scored per away game. They’ve won seven consecutive games since returning from the winter break, including wins against title rivals Vaduz and high-flying Servette last match, which was away from home. Therefore, morale is very high in the Lugano camp and they bring terrific momentum into this game. Senger and Alfonso have been unstoppable in attack this season and with Basic, Campanholi, and Fejzulahi supporting them from midfield, it’s hard to look past how strong Lugano are in attack and thus Schaffhausen have a long game ahead of them.

The bad news for Lugano pre-match was that new Brazilian defender Rafael Silva broke his leg and will miss the rest of the season. However, Lugano are in such a rich vein of form that I have to take them seriously here. Schaffhausen may be able to keep them out for the most of the game but I doubt they’ll be able to do it for all of the game. If Lugano score here then I expect them to win and thus I view odds of 3/4 on the away win as the odds on Lugano scoring, which in my eyes are rather generous. Therefore, my call is a Lugano win here.

Team news – Lugano miss Rafael Silva.

Verdict: Lugano to win at 3/4.

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Monday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

AIK Solna vs Djurgarden – both teams to score at evens.

It’s derby day in Stockholm and it seems that the venue has been moved from Djurgarden’s ground to AIK’s but either way, I still rather like this tip.

AIK struggled massively last season due to off-the-pitch and on-the-pitch issues which have hopefully been resolved so that AIK can get back to their dreary football style. However, they can’t remain boring forever – they have one of the most exciting strikers in the Allsvenskan in Mohamed Bangura and it’ll be interesting to see how he links up with fellow Sierra Leone striker Teteh Bangura, who was only signed a few months ago. AIK’s attack could actually be quite exciting, for a change! Wouldn’t that be a story in itself?! However the bad news for AIK is that their already questionable midfield has suffered an untimely blow with the news that club legend Tjarnstrom will retire at the end of the season. They lost Dulee Johnson pre-season and this news doesn’t aid them in their quest to possess a competent midfield. The only bright bit of news regarding their midfield is exciting midfielder Kayongo-Mutumba as makes AIK a lot more creative. However, it cannot be overlooked that AIK do possess a rather large number of “ordinary” players nowadays, despite some talented individuals, and that means to me that they’ll struggle today.

Visitors Djurgarden sold Sharbel Touma pre-season but have kept the rest of their first-team entact so they look fairly well-placed to beat the drop again. Djurgarden are a side with high aspirations but with little execution and they tend to struggle to avoid relegation as a result. It’s a bit of an enigma, really, as their defence is susceptible and error-prone whilst their midfield is rather strong. They’ve got ex-Liverpool attacking midfielder Daniel Sjolund, talented Finnish winger Kasper Hamalainen, and yet another Finn in ex-Honka Espoo midfielder Perovuo so they do have a good amount of ability in their Finland-orientated midfield. Consider that they’ll be supporting Nigerian goal machine Igboananike and technically-able Youssef in attack and we potentially have a very potent Djurgarden team this season. Whether they achieve anything with such an unreliable defence or not, however, remains to be seen.

For me, the best way to approach this derby is to back both sides to score. Djurgarden have a good attack and midfield whereas AIK are rather susceptible in midfield. I have no doubts that the Bangura duo can score against Djurgarden’s defence but with the above in mind, I think taking both sides to score at evens is quite a generous price today.

Team news – Djurgarden miss Oremo.

Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.

Accumulator fodder:

Queens Park Rangers, Tampines Rovers.

Recommended bets:

Lugano and Queens Park Rangers at 2/1.

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Danish Superligaen:

Midtylland vs Lyngby (6) 2-1

English Championship:

Queens Park Rangers vs Sheffield United (8)

French Ligue 2:

Nantes vs Boulogne (7)

German Bundesliga 2:

FSV Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum (6)

Italian Serie B:

Frosinone vs Siena (6)

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Go Ahead Eagles vs RBC Roosendaal (7)

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Lillestrom vs Brann Bergen (7) 2-1

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

CD Nacional de Madeira vs Pacos de Ferreira (5) 1-0

Russian Premier League:

Terek Grozny vs Tom’ Tomsk (7) 1-0

Singaporean S-League:

Woodlands Wellington vs Tampines Rovers (8) 0-2
Geylang United vs Tanjong Pagar (7) 2-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Almeria vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) 1-1

Swedish Allsvenskan:

IFK Goteborg vs Orebro (5) 1-1
Elfsborg Boras vs BK Hacken Goteborg (7) 2-0
AIK Solna vs Djurgarden (5) 1-1

Swiss Challenge League:

Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais (6)
FC Schaffhausen vs Lugano (7)

Turkish Super Lig:

Antalyaspor vs Galatasaray (5) 1-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio

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Today’s featured game is the Liga Sagres encounter between SL Benfica and Naval de Maio. Despite disappointingly (and somewhat strangely) losing to Sporting Braga last weekend, SL Benfica have bounced back with a mid-week victory in England against Everton in the UEFA Europa League. I can’t see SL Benfica needing momentum to beat Naval de Maio either way but it’s still useful to enter a game after you’ve won the previous game. I’m quite happy to write off the Sporting Braga defeat as “just one of those days” as SL Benfica were very unfortunate on the day with quite a number of things, almost too many things you might say, if you were of the suspicious type…which I am. Anyway, the firepower of SL Benfica is frankly worthy of a better league at the present time, such is its efficiency in destroying sides. I mean, the giants of Portuguese football have scored twenty goals at the Estadio de Luz so far this season, which is a terrifying average of five goals per game! They’ve won three from their four home games this season and have only conceded three goals on this crazy run! SL Benfica, to put it bluntly, are looking the best side in Portugal at the moment in my opinion, and I fully expect them to show this again tonight. Visitors Naval de Maio are actually doing well at the moment with three wins from their last four games. However, in that time they’re not come across a side with the deadly attack of SL Benfica, although I have to give credit for their impressive win at Maritimo to start this particular run off. Naturally, the struggling Naval de Maio are largely taking points at home and this is perfectly illustrated by their away record, which reads played four, lost three, won one, scored twice (both in the same game), conceded eight. Effectively, they’re atrocious on the road and currently average conceding two goals per game on the road, although I expect that margin to increase if SL Benfica turn it on tonight. I’m not normally a fan of the bigger handicaps like this but I feel this fixture has all that it needs to see SL Benfica win the game with a -2.75 goal handicap at 7/4.

Monday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio – home win with -2.75 handicap at 7/4 – see introduction for full details.

Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi – home win at 23/20. This match is between two sides that are really struggling in the Argentinian Primera Division. However, as I’m sure you’re all aware, the sides in these predicaments tend to win their home games due to their poor away form, hence the predicament that they’re generally in! Eat your heart out, Freud! Anyway, Huracan have managed to win two of their six home games this season already, drawing once and losing three times, which is a decent home record at best. However, more encouragingly Huracan haven’t lost any of their last three home games. They’ve beaten Racing Club Avellaneda 3-1 a few weeks ago and have since drawn with River Plate and beaten Rosario Central without even conceding a goal. Huracan are certainly set in their ways at home and are starting to make it a fortress. Visitors Arsenal de Sarandi have performed quite well lately with two wins in their last three games. Needless to say, however, those wins were at home. Their away form shows they’ve lost their last three away games and have conceded eight goals on that run too. Arsenal de Sarandi’s away form in general is poor with four defeats and one win from five away games this season with them averaging over two goals per away game conceded. Bluntly, this should be a real dogfight of a game but there’s enough favouring Huracan here for me to take them at 23/20.

Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen – lay Slavia Prague at evens. I find it quite baffling that Slavia Prague aren’t hitting their stride yet but I’m here to take advantage of this fact so I’m going to attempt to do so here. Viktoria Plzen have been punching above their weight all season long but credit given where credit is due – they’ve only lost twice on the road in seven games and are unbeaten in their last five games now. The predominant reasoning behind this fact is that Viktoria Plzen rarely concede goals, something they’ve done only four times in their seven away games, which is less than any other Gambrinus Liga outfit. Hosts Slavia Prague are one of the daddies in this league but they’re simply not showing it currently. I thought they’d be weakened after their losses this time around but I didn’t expect them to be quite as weak as they have been. They’ve lost three of their last four games and only managed to score three times in those games. To say that Slavia Prague look out of sorts would be an understatement. Viktoria Plzen haven’t taken a point from here since 2006 but they’ve got the best chance that they’ll ever get to do that today so I’m laying Slavia Prague at evens.

Liverpool vs Birmingham City – under 2.5 goals at evens. I don’t think I need to explain to you all the situation at Liverpool at the present time. They’re not playing good football, they are missing leader Steven Gerrerad and Fernando Torres (who is doing his best to carry them) is playing through the pain barrier. A draw at Olympique Lyonnais last week will have damaged their morale as they’re effectively out of the UEFA Champions League, barring a miracle. Their attention must now return to their league game with Birmingham City, who impressed at home to Manchester City in their last game but failed to score and gain a deserved victory. Birmingham City’s story in the Premier League so far could very well be titled “Playing well; not scoring”, which is effectively what I expect to happen again here tonight. I don’t think Liverpool are great but they really should have enough to get a goal or two here whereas I can’t see Birmingham City doing what they’ve only done four times away from home this season and scoring a goal. For me, taking under 2.5 goals at evens should be a good bet tonight.

AEK Athens vs Larissa – lay AEK Athens at 7/5. There’s an awful lot going on behind the scenes at AEK Athens still and they’re not producing the goods as a result of it. They’ve not won in their last five games in all competitions, games which have included a draw at home to Belarus’ BATE Borisov in the UEFA Europa League and draws away to Aris Salonika and Ergotelis respectively in the Super League. The fact that they’ve won just three games out of nine this season speaks volumes regarding the club’s current demise. Visitors Larissa are a capable side despite what their league placing may suggest. Larissa also enter this game with good momentum after a three-match unbeaten run that has seen them claim two victories and one draw. I personally consier Larissa as a top seven side that aren’t too different from AEK Athens so I think backing Larissa to do what they did here two seasons ago by avoiding defeat at 7/5 could turn out to be a very good bet indeed tonight.

Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax - over 3.5 goals at 6/5. These two crazy Swiss sides have already scored sixty-seven goals between them in just fifteen games each, which is an average of over two goals scored per game for both side. Basel’s form of late and overall ability suggests that they’ll win this game but there’s not a lot of value in that other than as accumulator fodder. However, the fact that they score nearly three goals per game at home on average and that Neuchatel Xamax score nearly two goals per game away from home appears to suggest that we’re in for a heavy goalscoring session tonight. I’d be happier if Neuchatel Xamax were in better form to give them a better chance of scoring more goals but frankly I’m happy with this bet nonetheless. Lastly, games between these two sides have gone over 3.5 goals for four out of their last six encounters so taking over 3.5 goals at 6/5 here tonight could be an inspired bet!

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi (7) 2-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Minior Pernik (6) 1-1

Cypriot Division 1:

APOEL Nicosia vs APEP (9) -1.75 handicap

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen (5) 1-1
Slovacko vs Sparta Prague (7) 0-1

English Premier League:

Liverpool vs Birmingham City (7) under 2.5 goals

English Championship:

Barnsley vs Sheffield United (6)

English FA Cup:

Millwall vs AFC Wimbledon (8) 2-1

French Ligue 2:

Nantes vs Guingamp (8)

German Bundesliga 2:

Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock (7)

Greek Super League:

AEK Athens vs Larissa (5)

Greek B Ethniki:

Ionikos Nikaias vs Thrasivoulos (5) draw no bet

Italian Serie B:

Torino vs Lecce (6)

Norwegian Tippeligaen/Adeccoligaen Play-Off:

Sarpsborg vs Kongsvinger (6)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio (10) -2.75 handicap

Romanian Liga:

Steaua Bucharest vs Unirea Alba Iulia (8) under 2.5 goals

Swiss Super League:

Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax (8) over 3.5 goals

Swiss Challenge League:

Lugano vs Kriens (7)

Enjoy your free betting tips!