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Lustenau vs Salzburg II

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Today’s featured game is the Liga 1 encounter between Lustenau and Salzburg II. Both sides are in a rich vein of form and the game is virtually redundant so it’s one of those occasions where I expect free-flowing football to ensue following the inevitable relief of both sides having managed to stave off the threat of relegation, the kind of game where the shackles are cast off and we see a good game of football.

Hosts Lustenau shouldn’t really be battling against relegation, in my opinion – they’re good enough to maintain a mid-table place at the very least so it has surprised me that they’ve had a poor campaign. Their main problem is scoring goals as they don’t tend to concede many. However, it’s somewhat pointless for me to explain why not scoring goals is a hindrance so we’ll focus on Lustenau’s recent displays! Relegation had gripped them of late and Lustenau suddenly became the force that they’re capable of being by beating a poor Dornbirn side 2-0. It’s not a heroic victory – far from it – but all good runs must start somewhere. Since that game, Lustenau have won four out of their five games with only the unenviable trip to Wacker Innsbruck resulting in them dropping points as they lost 1-0. Lustenau have won their last four games consecutively and have won their last three home games consecutively so the hosts do bring some good momentum into this game. They’ve done well lately because they have finally started scoring goals, notching up thirteen goals over their past six games – over two goals per game, on average. Lustenau are a presentable side without their goalscoring issues – when they’ve resolved those issues, like now, they look a dangerous side. Although they have no reason to make the effort to win this game, their momentum and potency should give them enough to win this game.

Visitors Salzburg II have also battled valiantly over their last six games, winning four times and losing just twice so their own momentum is strong. They’ve been scoring goals for fun and have frankly looked more assured of late than their senior team in the Bundesliga have! However, a defeat at lowly Hartberg last match reminded them just why they’ve been struggling this season as they swerve between the sublime and the ridiculous far too easily. Despite their momentum burst, Salzburg II consistently have problems away from home, losing five out of their last six games on the road due to inept defending. That now takes their tally to nine defeats in fifteen away games this season and an absence of goalscoring ability on the road has emphasised their defensive frailties to a degree that they wouldn’t appreciate in the slightest. Despite the obvious ability of Salzburg II, they simply don’t produce the goods on the road so I expect them to be undone tonight by Lustenau.

Although this has the potential to be a close game with plenty of goals, I have to favour the more reliable Lustenau over the bizarre Salzburg II who turn up when they feel like it. Salzburg II struggle on the road as it is and Lustenau have looked assured at home of late so the home win at 6/5 looks good odds for a home win tonight.

Verdict: Lustenau to win at 6/5.

Friday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Dinamo Brest vs Vitebsk – home win at evens.

Although Dinamo Brest haven’t been as good as normal at home so far in the Vysshaya Liga, they’re still a damn good home side which explains why they’ve not lost any of their four home games so far despite not hitting great form. They’re not scoring many goals, which was their problem last season, but don’t underestimate them at home because they’re certainly a capable side. Vitebsk have over-achieved this season. They caught us out by somehow holding BATE Borisov to a draw at home but this run of theirs simply cannot continue because they’re not good enough to hold it. Basically, it has to end sometime and I think this is the game that it does and the odds are good enough to take it at although with low stakes. Dinamo Brest are simply the better side and if they get the all-important first goal then I expect them to hold on against a dogged but frankly impotent Vitebsk side to inflict their first defeat of the season. Dinamo have won this fixture for two consecutive seasons so they’ve certainly got the capability to do so again today and the odds make it worth a small punt.

Verdict: Dinamo Brest to win at evens.

Vannes OC vs Laval – home win at evens.

With just two games remaining in Ligue 2, Vannes are two points clear of the relegation zone and need to win to keep themselves away from it. They’re not going to win their final match of the season at Metz so three points tonight are an absolute must for them. There are two free spots for relegation with Bastia having already claimed the first of the three and there’s six sides battling to not be there so it’s going to go right to the wire. With so many sides in the mix, however, a win tonight will surely give Vannes enough of an advantage to stave off relegation for this season. Vannes may have had an unreliable season, particularly at home, but they’ve struck gold lately with form coming at the right time. They’re unbeaten in four consecutive games, winning three times along the way, which gives them a great burst of momentum. They’ve won their last two home games consecutively and have looked very composed during those games so I’m suitably impressed by Vannes of late, enough so to back them tonight.

Visitors Laval have nothing to play for with an unprecedented promotion push impossible now and having done enough to be well away from the drop zone. The season can be considered a great success for newly-promoted Laval, however, so they’ll be feeling pretty good about their league placing, as indeed they should. However, they’ve naturally let their guard down of late with no motivation and a bit of season-long tiredness creeping in so they’re not playing well. They’ve won once in their past eight games so it’s fair to say that they’re not overly concerned about games currently. They’ve looked short of goals away from home this season but aside from that have been generally hard to beat so they won’t make this easy for Vannes tonight. That said, they’ve only scored once during their last five away games which explains why they’ve drawn three of them and lost twice. They’ve got no reason to improve their away form so I expect them to either lose or draw this one tonight.

It’s going to be a close game with few goals tonight but with Vannes in such fine form and desperately needing the win, you have to favour them to beat a Laval side devoid of motivation and short on goals away from home. If Vannes get that elusive first goal then they should win this game tonight. Either way, the odds of evens are good enough to back the selection at so I’m happy to side with the hosts tonight.

Verdict: Vannes OC to win at evens.

Debreceni VSC vs Fehervar – home win at 10/11.

At long last Debreceni VSC have claimed their rightful place at the top of the Soproni Liga with just four games to go so their timing couldn’t have been better. They’re hosting Fehervar, the pretenders to Debreceni’s throne, so the hosts will be eager to overcome them tonight to claim back-to-back Soproni Liga titles. Debreceni have a magnificent record at home with twelve wins in thirteen games, by far and away the best home record in the division because they’re frankly the best side in Hungary. They average scoring well over two goals per game at home and should be able to boost even that impressive record by beating Fehervar tonight, something they’ve done for six consecutive meetings at home in the Soproni Liga so it’s not unfamiliar ground for the hosts at all. A win tonight not only puts their rivals in place but gives tonight’s hosts a three point cushion with just three games remaining, most of which are winnable games so Debreceni will be very much motivated to win tonight.

Fehervar have had an outstanding campaign and I can only respect the frankly legitimate title challenge that they’ve launched but they’re starting to look stretched and have started to buckle under the pressure. Their defeat against MTK Budapest at home last match indicated that all too clearly with the visitors for that game having conceded six goals in their previous two games and having thrown away two two-goal leads during those games so their morale wasn’t exactly high. Don’t get me wrong – MTK Budapest are a very good side, in my opinion, but to lose 1-0 at home to them was an unthinkable result for a side attempting to launch a legitimate title challenge. The fact that they’ve scored just one goal in their last three home games shows how hard they’re finding the pressure and I think defeat last match may just have ended their title push despite mathematics opposing me. Fehervar don’t have a good record here in the Soproni Liga – who does? – so their one defeat in thirteen away games this season is under threat from the giants of Hungarian football. Fehervar have been impeccable on the road this season but I think last match will have hit them hard, which should play right into the hands of their experienced and able hosts.

Fehervar have rarely struggled to score goals this season but now the pressure is on and they’re not coping. They’re looking very stretched and are now travelling to a very experienced and capable host in Debreceni so I expect a home win tonight. The bookies have priced the outcome at 10/11, which isn’t far off the mark for me but is still longer than it should be. Debreceni VSC are generally priced far too short in this league so it surprises me that the bookies have missed this opportunity because Debreceni are the better side by some distance. Fehervar have had a good season but they’re not in the same ball park as their hosts tonight so the home win at 10/11 should be a good value bet tonight.

Verdict: Debreceni VSC to win at 10/11.

Accumulator fodder:

SCR Altach, Wacker Innsbruck, Torpedo Zhodino, BATE Borisov.

Recommended bets:

BATE Borisov, Debreceni VSC, Torpedo Zhodino, and SCR Altach at 5/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Austrian Liga 1:

Lustenau vs Salzburg II (7) over 2.5 goals
SCR Altach vs First Vienna (8) over 2.5 goals
Wacker Innsbruck vs Dornbirn (8) under 2.5 goals
Admira Wacker vs Austria Lustenau (7) both sides to score
Austria Vienna II vs St.Polten (6)

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:

BATE Borisov vs Dnepr Mogilev (8) 2-1
Minsk vs Neman Grodno (4) 1-1
Torpedo Zhodino vs Partizan Minsk (8) 2-0
Belshina vs Naftan Novopolotsk (6) 0-0
Dinamo Brest vs Vitebsk (6) 1-0
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Dinamo Minsk (5) 1-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Westerlo vs Racing Genk (4) 1-2

Cypriot Division 1:

Enosos Neon Paralimni vs Ethnikos Achnas (5) 2-1

Faroese Meistaradeildin:

NSI Runavik vs EB/Streymur (6) 2-1

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

TPS Turku vs VPS Vaasa (7) 1-0

French Ligue 2:

Sedan-Ardennes vs Arles (5)
Tours vs Bastia (3) draw no bet
AC Ajaccio vs Chateauroux (6) under 2.5 goals
Brest vs Dijon FCO (7)
Clermont Foot vs Guingamp (6) under 2.5 goals
Vannes OC vs Laval (6)
Strasbourg vs Le Havre (5)
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Metz (7)
Angers SCO vs Nantes (6) over 2.5 goals
Istres vs Nimes (5)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Debreceni VSC vs Fehervar (8) over 2.5 goals

International Friendly:

Mexico vs Ecuador (6) 2-1

Irish Premier League:

Bray Wanderers vs UCD (7) 0-0
Drogheda United vs Sporting Fingal (5) 0-1
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Dundalk (6) 2-1
Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United (7) 1-0

Italian Serie B:

Triestina vs Reggina (5)

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Cracovia Krakow vs Polonia Warsaw (5) 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ruch Chorzow (5) 1-1

Singaporean S-League:

Geylang United vs Gombak United (6) 2-1

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Castellon vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (4)

Swedish Superettan:

Hammarby vs Brage (7)

Turkish Super Lig:

Besiktas JK vs Manisaspor (7) 1-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Brest vs Vannes OC

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Today’s featured games is the Ligue 2 encounter between Brest and Vannes OC. The hosts have been very impressive in Ligue 2 this year and currently find themselves in fourth place in the table. They’ve won three of their last five games and are unbeaten on that particular run. The main reason for their success has been their consistent home form which has seen them yield five wins from seven games, drawing once and losing just once. Brest are looking twice the side that they were last year and look one of the harder sides to beat currently. Vannes OC, by contrast, are not having a good season. They’re currently thirteenth in the Ligue 2 table with one win and four defeats from their last five games, which isn’t good enough. Whereas their away record isn’t exactly the worst in the league, it’s still poor with three defeats, two draws, and one defeat from their six away games played this year. Vannes OC basically are not looking good enough to take anything from this game so I’m going to call a home win at bargain odds of 5/6 for a very much in-form and reliable Brest.

Friday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Brest vs Vannes OC – home win at 5/6 – see introduction for full details.

Universidad de Chile vs Fluminense – home win at 11/10. I don’t know what it is about Chilean sides playing Brazilian sides but they seem to have more success in stopping their Brazilian counterparts playing football much better than any other South American nation does. Perhaps it’s their dogged style of football that really gets to the Brazilians – I’m not sure. This point was illustrated in the first leg of this game as Universidad de Chile drew 2-2 in Brazil against Fluminense. Universidad de Chile are one of the more experienced continental sides in South America, I think it’s fair to say, and stand a great chance of progressing to the Copa Nissan Sudamericana here tonight against a Fluminense side more focal upon avoiding relegation from Serie A. The hosts have a good enough squad to win this game and the home advantage against a potentially distracted Fluminense makes the home win at 11/10 look a good call tonight.

Liga de Quito vs Velez Sarsfeld – home win at evens. Copa Libertadores reigning champions Liga de Quito tonight host Velez Sarsfeld in the Copa Nissan Sudamericana quarter-final game. An impressive 1-1 draw in Argentina in the first leg leaves the Ecuadorians with the edge as the Argentinians vist their lofty fortress in Quito. Many sides have travelled here and failed so it will take a mighty display from Velez Sarsfeld to avoid falling to a similar fate. What convinces me of this outcome is not only that this is a nightmarish away game for any side and that Velez Sarsfeld have to come here and attack to have a chance of success but also that Velez Sarsfeld’s performances of late have been inconsistent at best. For instance – they’ve beaten lowly Godoy Cruz de Mendoza and newly-promoted Atletico Tucuman but have also lost at home to Newell’s Old Boys. When travelling to a good home side like Liga de Quito, you really need to be at your best. Basically, I don’t think Velez Sarsfeld are currently in a position to get a result here so I think the home win at evens for the Ecuadorians looks a good bet tonight.

Sedan-Ardennes vs Metz – away win at 15/8. I can’t quite fathom why these odds are so long! Visitors Metz are not the best travellers in Ligue 2 – far from it. However, they remain one of the best sides in the division, regardless of that point. Aside from that, Metz have really entered their stride lately with four wins from their last five games. If this statistic isn’t impressive enough for you then consider that all of the sides they have beaten/drawn with in those five games either are a very good side or showed that they can be a very good side last season. Metz have lately won away to Chateauroux and drew away to high-flying Nantes whilst beating Guingamp, Laval, and Strasbourg at home. This list of sides is very impressive, in my humble opinion, and a weak Sedan-Ardennes shouldn’t really pose a great threat here tonight, despite having a decent home record. Sedan-Ardennes have lost three of their last five games, including two embarassing defeats to Nimes and Istres. Therefore, to be frank, the away win at 15/8 could turn out to be a real bargain tonight.

Arles vs Le Havre – away win at 13/8. Although currently unbeaten at home in Ligue 2 this year, hosts Arles will face one of their toughest tests yet as they host a very much in-form Le Havre. The visitors have won three of their last five games, losing just once. Their most recent victory was a monday night 4-0 demolition of promotion rivals Nantes, which will have inspired Le Havre greatly. Arles are doing well with keeping sides out but that record simply has to end soon enough because Arles are punching above their weight. Visitors Le Havre certainly have a classier side and look far more capable of winning this game than the hosts do. For me, the away win at 13/8 could prove to be a great bet tonight, particularly as Le Havre have already won three from seven away games this season, losing just once along the way.

Empoli vs Reggina – home win at evens. Anyone who reads this blog knows that I love my Serie B home wins and Empoli are amongst my favourite sides to back for it, too! Although atrocious away from home, Empoli become a very different side when playing on their own turf as five wins from six home games indicates. Some poor form lately has cast a few doubts in my mind over the reliability of Empoli but they’re hosting a Reggina side tonight that have lost four of their last five games and look destined to fail in this division despite having only joined Serie B from Serie A this year. Comparing Empoli’s superb home record with an average of nearly three goals scored per home game to Reggina’s away record of four defeats from six away games, conceding nearly two goals per away game, you have to feel that there’s potentially a great deal of value in the home win at evens!

Groningen vs Heracles Almelo – away win at 9/5. I never thought I’d see the day that I backed Heracles Almelo to win an away game but here we are! Visitors Heracles Almelo are playing some of the best football that they’ve ever played, in my humble opinion, and have well-earned their current Eredivisie placing of sixth. They’ve won four of their last five games but their most impressive feature is the fact that they’ve won four from six away games this year with only FC Twente Enschede having won more away games this year. Heracles Almelo’s strength isn’t goalscoring; it’s keeping sides out. They’ve conceded just one goal away from home in six games this year, which is pretty damn impressive! Although I formerly rated Groningen as the better of these two sides, statistics for this year show otherwise in a big way. The hosts have lost so many home games that only bottom-placed RKC Waalwijk have lost more home games than they have. Groningen have lost four of their six home games this season and scored a feeble two goals. Considering the lax attack of Groningen and the watertight defence of Heracles Almelo makes me think an away win is very likely here, particularly with the sharp contrast in momentum and ability at the moment, particularly as Groningen are without a win in their past four games and have lost their last two consecutively. For me, there’s potentially some serious value in the away win at 9/5.

Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce – home win at evens. Many people have dubbed Lechia Gdansk’s start to this Ekstraklasa campaign as “fortunate”; maybe they’re right. However, fortune has no place in what will surely be a home win against a weak, newly-promoted Korona Kielce as the visitors have now lost four games in a row. Korona Kielce looked to be playing ok but all of a sudden they’ve completely capitulated and the result is a sharp descent down the Ekstraklasa. The visitors have lost four from five away games in the Ekstraklasa this season and Lechia Gdansk are well-placed to take advantage of that fact. The hosts may have a somewhat impassive home record this year but they’re resilient, experienced in the Ekstraklasa dogfight and won their last game to give them momentum as they enter this game. With all of the above in mind, the home win at evens could be a real bargain today.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Copa Nissan Sudamericana:

Universidad de Chile vs Fluminense (7) under 2.5 goals
Liga de Quito vs Velez Sarsfeld (7) under 2.5 goals

Argentinian Primera Division:

Argentinos Juniors vs Rosario Central (5) 1-1
Independiente vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 2-0

Australian A-League:

Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar (7) 2-1

Austrian Liga 1:

Austria Vienna II vs Wacker Innsbruck (8)
SCR Altach vs Gratkorn (8)
Hartberg vs Admira Wacker (8)
Lustenau vs Salzburg II (6)
First Vienna vs Dornbirn (5) over 2.5 goals

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Charleroi vs AA Gent (6) 1-2

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Montana (7) 1-0

Danish 1st Division:

Viborg vs Skive (8)

English Championship:

Derby County vs Coventry City (4) draw no bet

English FA Cup:

Bristol Rovers vs Southampton (6) 1-1
Notts County vs Bradford City (8) 2-0
Huddersfield Town vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6) 2-1

French Ligue 2:

AC Ajaccio vs Dijon FCO (6)
Angers SCO vs Bastia (6)
Brest vs Vannes OC (8)
Clermont Foot vs Nimes (7)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Metz (6)
Strasbourg vs Istres (6)
Arles vs Le Havre (6)
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Tours (8)
Chateauroux vs Laval (6)

German Bundesliga:

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt (8) 3-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Kaiserslautern vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (7)
St.Pauli vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (7)
Paderborn vs Koblenz (6)

Greek B Ethniki:

Ilioupoli vs Ethnikos Asteras (7)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Ujpest vs Fehervar (6) 1-1

Italian Serie B:

Empoli vs Reggina (7)

Dutch Eredivisie:

Groningen vs Heracles Almelo (7) 0-1

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Excelsior (7) over 2.5 goals
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Volendam (6)
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht ’90 (6)
Eindhoven vs Veendam (7)
Fortuna Sittard vs RBC Roosendaal (7)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Haarlem (8)
Helmond Sport vs Top Oss (6)
MVV Maastricht vs Omniworld (8)
Stormvogels Telstar vs Zwolle (7)

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Odra Wodzislaw vs Zaglebie Lubin (5) 1-1
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce (8) 1-0
Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warsaw (7) 2-1

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Belenenses vs Pacos de Ferreira (6) under 2.5 goals

Romanian Liga:

Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Gloria Bistrita (7) 2-0
International vs Universitatea Craiova (8) 1-1

Singaporean S-League:

Sengkang Punggol vs Woodlands (5) 1-1

Turkish Super Lig:

Bursaspor vs Genclerbirligi (8) 2-0

Welsh Premier League:

Aberystwyth Town vs Bala Town (7) 2-1
Airbus vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (6) 1-0
Haverfordwest County vs Neath Athletic (6) 1-1
Prestatyn Town vs Newtown (7) 2-1
The New Saints vs Newi Cefn Druids (8) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!