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Espanyol vs Real Mallorca

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Today’s secondary featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Espanyol and Real Mallorca in Barcelona. Hosts Espanyol have been immense at home this season, much like Mallorca last season, ironically. Visitors Mallorca, however, haven’t recovered from their sumemr changes and should struggle here.

Espanyol miss star striker Osvaldo for this game and will do for some time, unfortunately, as he suffered a bad injury a few weeks ago. Surprisingly, Espanyol have played quite well without him, which is no doubt due to the team spirit created by Argentinian boss Pochettino. They shouldn’t have to need Osvaldo though, to be fair, as long as Luis and Sergio Garcia both pull their weight, which they haven’t been for the majority of the season but both have stepped up reasonably well lately in Osvaldo’s absence. Argentinian defender Forlin is regrettably still absent for the hosts and he’s joined by midfielder Javi Marquez, which gives Espanyol a couple of issues here. Nonetheless, their confident win at home to Real Sociedad last match convinces me that momentum will support them here and let’s face it – they’ve got the firepower to score goals if youngster Alvro and Verdu step up to the plate so I’ll give the hosts a chance here.

I really wouldn’t read much into the recent form of Espanyol – they’ve never been an away side to begin with but they’ve had a run of unfortunate fixtures with their two home games in their last four games being against Villarreal CF and Real Madrid and their two away games being against in-form Almeria and an Osasuna team under a new boss – all difficult games. Espanyol should be back in business tonight though!

Visitors Real Mallorca have continually failed to impress me lately and I don’t expect to see anything different tonight. I like Laudrup; I think he’s a good manager and his teams tend to play well. However, Mallorca are simply not functioning under him, conceding too easily and not scoring anywhere near enough goals. You look at their team and you have to wonder where their goals will come from. Webo is a beast of a striker to handle on his day but he’s not a particularly gifted finisher and Nsue has somewhat disappointed since his promising burst onto the Primera Liga scene. There’s an over-reliance on Mallorca’s midfield, especially the superb Castro, although Pereira and De Guzman contribute too, it has to be said. De Guzman misses this game, however, which leaves the burden largely with Castro and partially with Pereira, which just isn’t enough, in my view. They’ll be happy to welcome Ramis back in defence for this game but there’s a reason that Mallorca have only scored twice in their last six away games and it’s because they’re simply not very good at it. In fact, had it not been for an uncharacteristically lacklustre Athletic Club de Bilbao display against Mallorca lately, Mallorca wouldn’t have won a game since the start of January and it’s that statistic that is most relevant here, I feel.

Espanyol already won 0-1 at Real Mallorca earlier this season and haven’t lost at home to Mallorca for four consecutive visits, beating them twice along the way. Espanyol have won nine out of twelve home games this season with only bitter rivals Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Villarreal taking three points from the Catalans. Visitors Mallorca have lost eight out of twelve on the road whilst averaging conceding nearly two goals per away game and scoring less than a goal per away game. Although Espanyol are missing a few important players, I simply feel that they should have too much for Mallorca here. Although I’ll concede that a 0-0 draw isn’t out of the question, I still think there’s value on an Espanyol win if their midfield show up.

Team news – Espanyol miss Osvaldo, Forlin, and Javi Marquez whereas Real Mallorca miss Victor and De Guzman.

Verdict: Espanyol to win at evens.

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Tuesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Sevilla CF vs Sporting Gijon – under 2.5 goals at evens.

Well, Manzano’s certainly got his feet under the table at Sanchez Pizjuan now, hasn’t he? Scrap the game at Atletico Madrid last match; you have to attack and score goals to get points off Atletico Madrid. What interests me is that Manzano has made Sevilla very defensive and that’s something that I had previously thought was quite impossible. Their game at Porto lately went under 2.5 goals. Their win at home to Hercules Alicante lately went under 2.5 goals. In fact, three out of Sevilla’s last four home games in all competitions have gone under 2.5 goals and only a superb Porto goal took the one game over 2.5 goals. Sevilla still miss defensive rock Dragutinovic, unfortunately, and they also miss Sergio Sanchez tonight too. However, they’ve looked assured at the back lately and somewhat calmer in attack, losing their samba rhythm a lot and generally looking a lot more like the old Deportivo La Coruna side, in my view – winning games narrowly whilst focusing on defence. Kanoute returns for the hosts, as does goalkeeper Palop, so Sevilla are getting back to full-strength again, especially with star winger Navas back in business. However, I simply cannot overlook that Sevilla are now a defensive side and it should show again tonight.

Visitors Sporting Gijon are battlers, to be blunt, just like almost all northern Spain sides. It’s the southern sides like Sevilla that tend to take a more relaxed and “samba” approach to their games but Sevilla have adopted a much more northern style to their game lately, which is a tad bemusing. Gijon will come here to take a point and they’ll do well to do so as they don’t score goals away from home. They’re rarely embarrassed on the road, conceding approximately 1.5 goals per away game, but their average of scoring less than a goal per away game has previously and continues to hurt them. Nonetheless, they’ve only lost half of their away games in the Primera Liga this season, which only Getafe and Real Zaragoza outside of the top four Primera Liga clubs can better, so don’t necessarily go leaping all over the Sevilla win here. I’ve made the mistake of underestimating the tenacious Gijon before and I won’t be doing so again in the near future.

Gijon are actually unbeaten in three consecutive games now, drawing at home with Barcelona, away with Valencia CF, and at home to Zaragoza last match. I see no reason for Gijon to change tactics tonight as it simply wouldn’t make sense for them to do so. All three of those games went under 2.5 goals, incidentally, because Gijon lock up tight away from home and keep men behind the ball. Seven out of Gijon’s twelve away games in the Primera Liga this season have gone under 2.5 goals and with Manzano unlikely to unleash the beast that is Sevilla, I think under 2.5 goals looks favourable here at decent odds.

Team news – Sevilla CF miss Sergio Sanchez and Dragutinovic whereas Sporting Gijon miss Javi Poves.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.

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Accumulator fodder:

Novara.

Recommended bets:

Espanyol and Novara at 2/1.

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Copa Libertadores:

Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Penarol (5) 1-1
Deportivo Tachira vs Colo Colo (5) 1-1

Asian Champions League:

Jeju United vs Tianjin Teda (6) 2-1
Gamba Osaka vs Melbourne Victory (6) over 2.5 goals
Hangzhou Lucheng vs Nagoya Grampus (4) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Nasr (5) under 2.5 goals
Esteghlal vs Al Sadd (6) 1-0
Al Jazira vs Al Gharafa (6) 1-1
Al Hilal vs Sepahan (7) 2-0

Austrian Bundesliga:

SV Mattersburg vs Rapid Vienna (6) under 2.5 goals

Croatian Prva Liga:

Cibalia Vinkovci vs Zadar (7) 1-0

English Premier League:

Chelsea vs Manchester United (5) 0-0

English Championship:

Portsmouth vs Scunthorpe United (7)
Middlesbrough vs Nottingham Forest (4)
Derby County vs Doncaster Rovers (6)

English League One:

Brentford vs Notts County (6)
Exeter City vs Tranmere Rovers (6)
Bristol Rovers vs Colchester United (4)
Walsall vs Southampton (5) both sides to score
Yeovil Town vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
Charlton Athletic vs Carlisle United (5)
Hartlepool United vs Huddersfield Town (6)

English League Two:

Lincoln City vs Oxford United (3) over 2.5 goals
Cheltenham Town vs Stockport County (6)
Torquay United vs Rotherham United (5)
Aldershot Town vs Gillingham (7)
Shrewsbury Town vs Bury (6)
Northampton Town vs Burton Albion (6)
Chesterfield vs Wycombe Wanderers (6)

English FA Cup:

Everton vs Reading (4) 1-1

Estonian Super Cup:

Flora Tallinn vs Levadia Tallinn (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game

Italian Serie B:

Varese vs Crotone (6) under 2.5 goals
Piacenza vs Empoli (4) under 2.5 goals
Reggina vs Frosinone (6)
Cittadella vs Livorno (5)
Albinoleffe vs Modena (6)
Grosseto vs Padova (5)
Sassuolo vs Pescara (6)
Novara vs Portosummaga (8) under 2.5 goals
Siena vs Triestina (7)
Ascoli vs Vicenza (6)

Russian Cup:

Anzhi Makhachkala vs Zenit St.Petersburg (7) 0-1

Scottish Premier League:

Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Dundee United (5) 1-1
Hamilton Academicals vs Hibernian (5) 0-1

Singaporean S-League:

Gombak United vs Etoile (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Spanish Primera Liga:

Espanyol vs Real Mallorca (7) 2-0
Sevilla CF vs Sporting Gijon (7) under 2.5 goals

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Elche vs Numancia (4)
Barcelona II vs Cordoba (6) over 2.5 goals
Cartagena vs Tenerife (5)
Salamanca vs Villarreal II (6)
Girona vs Granada (6) both sides to score

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Atletico Venezuela vs Carabobo (5) 1-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Real Sociedad vs Real Mallorca

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Today’s secondary featured game is the Spanish Primera Liga encounter between Real Sociedad and Real Mallorca. This game is being played in the Basque country so the advantage is already with the hosts as it is.

I’ve been impressed with Real Sociedad when playing at Anoeta this season, it has to be said. I knew they were a physical side that most sides would struggle to overcome but I didn’t envision them winning as many home games as they have. Sociedad have actually won seven out of eleven Primera Liga home games, including a derby victory against bitter rivals Athletic Club de Bilbao, so they do need to be taken seriously. In fact, the only sides to win against Real Sociedad in San Sebastian this season are Villarreal CF, Sevilla CF, Real Madrid, and Atletico Madrid respectively so you can see how strong Sociedad are at home and that it generally takes a certain type of team to beat them i.e. one that can score more goals than they can. Barring Xabi Prieto, Mikel Aranburu, and David Zurutuza, Sociedad lack any kind of creativity in their team and tend to rely on brute force to guide themselves to wins. However, it’s the experience of Raul Tamudo and Joseba Llorente that have given them wins due to their years in the Primera Liga and ability to score goals as a result. Sadly, former academy boy Llorente misses this game tonight which places the burden of goalscoring solely upon Tamudo’s shoulders but he’s able to handle it – he’s a good player and knows how to find the net. Sociedad are a well-organised unit and tend to be very hard to break down although their one Achilles heel is the full-back area, where they always seem to be beaten easily. Nonetheless, this Sociedad is incredibly solid at home – only the four “superior” teams that I’ve mentioned have even scored here so don’t underestimate the newly-promoted hosts here.

Real Mallorca may enter this game on the back of a win but it was largely down to the poor display of their opponents that they won, in all truth. Laudrup’s Mallorca aren’t convincing at all, especially from a consistency perspective, so I can’t take them seriously here. Mallorca have lost three out of their last five games and failed to score in all three defeats so I think it’s fair to write their last game off as a “one-off”. Mallorca have already lost seven out of eleven Primera Liga away games this season due to inept defending (which means they average conceding two goals per away game) and ineffectual tactical approaches. Mallorca did part with some big players in summer but they do every summer – they’re a feeder club – that’s their role. I can’t accept that they’re as poor as they are now just because of those sales. Their new players haven’t bedded too well and they’re short on creativity, especially without Castro, who unfortunately is available for this game tonight. They lack goalscorers, creativity, and cohesion on a large scale, which is why they generally don’t get anything away from home and which is a big problem when going to the Basque country, home of the spirited sides.

For me, Mallorca should be beaten easily here. That’s some “famous last words”, I know, but Sociedad are everything that Mallorca aren’t in terms of a unit. Ironically, I’d probably argue the case that Mallorca have better individuals than Sociedad but as a unit, Mallorca are nothing here. Ability counts for very little when you’re crammed in against a Sociedad 4-5-1 on the small Anoeta pitch which is why so many sides struggle here. It takes a very special display or a very good side to get a result here and I just don’t see Mallorca being able to produce either. Mallorca are missing integral centre-back Ramis, which is a massive blow for them. For me, there’s value on the home win at evens but also a cheeky punt on Sociedad winning without conceding at a generous 12/5 is very appealing here.

Team news – Real Sociedad miss Labaka, Llorente, and Carlos Martinez whereas Real Mallorca miss Victor Casadesus, Ivan Rams, Tomeu Nadal, Sergi Enrich, and Tomas Pina.

Verdict: Real Sociedad to win at evens.

Follow the latest betting odds comparison on this event with OddsPortal.com!

Monday’s Picks

My tips:

Nothing else interests me today, sorry guys!

Accumulator fodder:

Omonia Nicosia

Recommended bets:

Omonia Nicosia and Real Sociedad at 2/1.

For my thoughts on the remainder of today’s games, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Arsenal de Sarandi vs Tigre (6) 1-0
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (5) 1-0

Cypriot Division 1:

Omonia Nicosia vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (8) over 2.5 goals

English FA Cup:

West Ham United vs Burnley (4) both sides to score

French Ligue 2:

Boulogne vs Le Mans (7)

German Bundesliga 2:

Hertha BSC Berlin vs Energie Cottbus (6) over 2.5 goals

Italian Serie B:

Varese vs Frosinone (6)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs SL Benfica (5) both sides to score, at least one red card in this game

Singaporean S-League:

Woodlands Wellington vs Albirex Niigata (5) 1-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Real Sociedad vs Real Mallorca (6) 1-0

Swiss Challenge League:

Lugano vs Vaduz (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score

Turkish Super Lig:

Manisaspor vs Trabzonspor (6) 1-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!