Real Mallorca vs Villarreal
Occasionally a result just really makes you think "how the fuck did that happen?", doesn't it? It's not often results of this nature occur in emphatic fashion but when they do you simply have to accept that you're better off as a mortal by not knowing the answer as to remain sane. One result that occurred yesterday from frankly numerous ridiculous games in France was Grenoble Foot's 5-0 victory over Auxerre. Auxerre conceded more goals in that game than they had in all their away games in Ligue 1 put together this season and Grenoble...well, the league table tells you all that you need to know about them! Anyway, let's hope for more reliable outcomes today or else profit might just dwindle somewhat! Incidentally - I hope my call on the Liverpool win now makes sense to those of you who doubted it. It was yet another derby that they didn't deserve to win, shouldn't have won due to bad performance and having less men, yet still did manage to win! Still, a win is a win for us so I hope it made you all some money!
Today's featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Real Mallorca and Villarreal. Real Mallorca have had a very impressive season so far and currently occupy fifth place in the Primera Liga table. Visitors Villarreal have had a sluggish season and although they've been gaining some momentum of late they still saw it fit to sack proven Manager Ernesto Valverde thus leaving the team in some disarray ahead of today's game.
Real Mallorca's home form entering this game is as impeccable as it has been all season with nine wins from nine games. Even league leaders Barcelona can't match that record so the islanders are alone in that sense barring the record of giants Real Madrid. Real Mallorca average scoring nearly three goals per game at home and have only conceded three goals in all of those nine home games, which is not only an average of a goal conceded per every three games played but also is a record that no other Primera Liga side can even get near, let alone match. Mallorca have had their attention caught up by the Copa del Rey in recent times and their performances have suffered as a result. However, they're out of the competition now and have had a week's rest so will be ready and waiting for Villarreal today.
Villarreal's dismal campaign was in the process of being turned around by talented Manager Ernesto Valverde when the board of infinite wisdom at Villarreal decided to sack him despite the transfer window having ended days before. This is a stupid decision on various levels so frankly I hope Villarreal get what is coming to them! Valverde is a bloody good Manager and because he's not emulated the work of Pellegrini in six months that makes him a bad Manager?! Ridiculous! They've appointed Castillo as Manager so we'll have to see how that works out for them but this is the last thing that a rejuvenated Villarreal side needed ahead of a trip to an organised and extremely efficient Real Mallorca. Villarreal have already lost six out of nine away games in the Primera Liga this season and average conceding nearly two goals per game. Villarreal have only won one of their last five games so are struggling and this trip looks particularly unwelcome given the above information.
Although Mallorca's incredible run will inevitably end at somepoint, I fail to see why it should be today. They're well-rested after their focused cup campaign and they're on their own turf, somewhere that has not only served them well but somewhere that is now a source of confidence for them. Sides are beginning to be afraid to travel to Mallorca and I can't except a disgruntled and confused Villarreal from this equation. Villarreal have already proven to be poor travellers this season and I see no reason why that should change today.
Incidentally, for those of you who share the belief on the Manager "honeymoon period" - that tends to take place in the side's first home game rather than first overall game!
Verdict: Real Mallorca to win at 5/4.
Sunday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Chacarita Juniors vs Banfield - away win at 11/8.
Hosts Chacarita Juniors have only played two games of the Clausura but already have a rough idea of where they stand in the Primera Division hierachy. With a win at troubled Tigre, Chacarita enforced their status as being more than relegation fodder. However, defeat at home to a relatively average River Plate side in such a convincing fashion leaves Chacarita still looking susceptible to sides that have at least some ability. Chacarita have seemingly increased their potency since their Apertura campaign but unfortunately their ability to concede goals has also increased so Chacarita are set to trouble weaker sides more but struggle moreso against the bigger sides. I can't see Chacarita finishing above 12th in the Clausura so they'll do well to take points from sides better than they are like today's visitors Banfield are.
Banfield have only played one game in the Clausura thus far and that was a convincing and efficient 1-0 win at River Plate. Apertura champions Banfield have seemingly stiffened their resolve to be a force in Argentina by becoming more compact in defence and playing more efficiently in attack. Banfield only lost one away game in the Apertura but won five times so their ability really cannot be questioned currently. Their problem was always scoring enough goals because as far as conceding goals goes, they're the best side in the Primera Division. They only conceded six goals in their ten away games in the Apertura so they're well-placed to do the same again in the Clausura.
Although there's little to go off from these two sides at such an early stage of the Clausura, what remains very obvious to me is that there's a real class difference between the two sides and Banfield shouldn't have any problems scoring against their lesser opponents. I expect a somewhat comfortable away win for what is arguably the best side in Argentina currently.
Verdict: Banfield to win at 11/8.
Zulte-Waregem vs Club Brugge - home win at 17/10.
Zulte-Waregem are one of the Eerste Klasse's better footballing sides. They play good football mostly at home, something which is particularly evident from their record of seven wins, two draws, and just two defeats in eleven home games. They average scoring nearly two goals per game and average conceding less than a goal per game so it stands to reason that Zulte-Waregem win most of their home games. Zulte-Waregem have only been beaten once in their last five games, winning three times and drawing once so their momentum is strong. They're a very able side on their own turf and should cause a significant number of problems for their more illustrious opponents today, enough so to potentially cause an upset.
Club Brugge don't have a good record here with just one win in their last five visits in all competitions, losing their other four games. The two sides normally play out a good game of football but I think it's fair to say that this is something of a "bogey" ground for Club Brugge. Club Brugge don't enter this game in great momentum at all with four defeats in their last five games in all competitions. I'll give Club Brugge the respect they deserve because those defeats do cover two competitions but the fact is that they're conceding too many goals too easily of late with twelve goals conceded in those five games. Club Brugge have lost to AA Gent and Racing Genk on the road in recent times and Zulte-Waregem are on a par with at least one of them so should present a similar threat. Club Brugge's 3-2 defeat at bitter rivals Anderlecht last match won't have improved their morale ahead of this tough game so I think the visitors could be in for a rough ride today.
There's no denying that Club Brugge are the better of these two sides which is why the odds rightfully favour them. However, momentum has dried up for them lately, much like their goals tally, whilst their goals conceded tally goes through the roof so the visitors are not shaping up well. Zulte-Waregem have enough momentum, home advantage, and confidence from their head-to-head records with Club Brugge to cause a potential upset today and the odds are good enough to see it happen at.
Verdict: Zulte-Waregem to win at 17/10.
Kortrijk vs Charleroi - home win at 10/11.
Little Kortrijk enjoy being one of the division's tougher sides to travel to, something which is emphasised by the fact that they've won six out of eleven home games this season without being prolific. Kortrijk are frankly are a tenacious side that never know when they're beaten and always seem to do just enough to secure a win when required. They've won their last two home games consecutively so their momentum is quite good although a defeat at Standard de Liege last match will have taken some of the wind out of their sails although not because they were beaten - more because they were leading and threw it away all too easily. Kortrijk are nonetheless a side that will stop at nothing so they're as well-placed as ever to make life tough for their opponents today, particularly with their convincing home record.
Visitors Charleroi were another victim of Standard de Liege of late although Charleroi's defeat was considerably more unfortunate with today's hosts pulling back from two behind only to concede in the last minute and lose 3-2. Call it what you will - unlucky, misfortunate, bad refereeing etc. - there's only so many excuses you can use before you realise that Charleroi, despite their potential, are in a relegation battle. They've lost four out of ten away games and have only scored nine times along the way. Charleroi don't concede excessively on the road but it's usually enough to lose the game due to their goal-shy nature. Charleroi have zero momentum ahead of this game with three consecutive defeats on their backs and have conceded an average of over two goals per game along the way whilst scoring just once. Bluntly - Charleroi aren't playing well enough to take something from this game unless Kortrijk draw a blank in this game.
Verdict: Kortrijk to win at 10/11.
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs America de Cali - home win at 10/11.
As it's still early in the Primera A campaign, there's not an awful lot I can write for you regarding this game. America de Cali fought hard to draw 2-2 in their opening game of this campaign with Atletico Huila but it's a game that they should be winning if they had any real level of quality in their squad, which they frankly don't. Hosts Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota draw at last year's group winners Independiente Medellin in their opening game and that's frankly a result I respect them a lot for because Independiente Medellin are extremely strong at home and Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota don't travel as well as they'd like. Today's hosts were only beaten once in their nine home games in their last campaign whilst winning five times and scoring over two goals per game on average, a record bettered only by Atletico Junior Barranquilla. Ultimately, Independiente are still a potent side and are still a class above America de Cali so why the bookies are giving such generous odds on this game is beyond me, particularly when Independiente are as good at home as they are and particularly when Independiente have won this fixture for four consecutive meetings whilst only conceding once.
Verdict: Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota to win at 10/11.
Birmingham City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers - home win at 5/6.
Although Birmingham City's promising run of late was brought to an abrupt end by Chelesa at Stamford Bridge in recent times, the fact remains that Birmingham are a very well-organised unit and are capable of beating sides with some ease. The statistics say that Birmingham haven't won in three Premier League games. However, the realistic approach says that Birmingham have hosted reigning champions Manchester United, visited last year's runners-up Chelsea, and have hosted one of the best Tottenham Hotspur sides for years. The mere fact that they've only lost once on that run is frankly impressive, in my humble opinion. However, Birmingham are back to basics with something of a local derby against Wolves and are back on familiar ground as they know this is a side that they can beat. Birmingham have already won five home games out of twelve, losing just twice. They're the joint-lowest conceding side at home in the Premier League along with bitter rivals Aston Villa at the moment so they've still got a stubborn defence. Birmingham are still scoring their "telling goal" in recent times which usually wins them the game but games against harder opponents have naturally proved to be...well, harder! However, Wolves are a side that can be undone by a solitary goal and McGleish will be keen to get his side back on track for their surprise UEFA Europa League place push.
Visitors Wolves have fought valiantly in their last two games as you'd expect any Mick McCarthy side to do but frankly the bottom line is that they've got just a point from each game. Whereas that outcome is something that you can respect from their home game with Liverpool, the fact that they scored twice at Hull City in their last Premier League game and still failed to win speaks volumes about Wolves. They simply concede too many goals without scoring enough themselves. They're never short of effort but the fact that they've lost six times in eleven away games whilst conceding twenty-three goals and scoring just ten emphasises my point further still. Wolves are beginning to run a tad dry with creativity and momentum so may be susceptible to defeat today.
Although this is a derby of sorts, you have to feel that Birmingham will take three points. They've got a better squad, they're far more efficient, they're better organised, and they rarely concede goals. I fail to see how a goal-shy Wolves are going to score in this game and thus I expect a narrow home win today.
Verdict: Birmingham City to win at 5/6.
Chelsea vs Arsenal - home win at 4/5.
Chelsea have already won eleven out of twelve home games in the Premier League this season and only drew the other game. They're a real force at Stamford Bridge regardless of how they're playing and are easily one of the top two sides in the Premier League in terms of quality. They average scoring over three goals per game at home and concede just over a goal per every two home games. Chelsea drew mid-week at Hull City somewhat unfortunately but won their four games prior to that so their momentum is still strong. Only Essien is missing from their what I would call "key players" but I can't see that being too much of a miss against an Arsenal side that currently don't know how to defend i.e. Chelsea are going to score more goals than Arsenal. Chelsea have a dominant record against their London rivals with Chelsea having won four out of their last five meetings at either ground with Arsenal and usually in convincing style too. Let's face it - Chelsea are a class above Arsenal as far as efficiency and ruthlessness goes and that's why they tend to win these games.
Arsenal are a wonderful footballing side when it suits them but completely lack grit and experience when they need it, as well as ruthlessness in front of goal. Had Arsenal utilised their chances better against Manchester United last weekend then we might have seen a difference scoreline but we didn't. Arsenal were at fault defensively for at least one of the goals and it could have been more due to the exact same reasoning. Every year pundits prattle on about how it could be Arsenal's year etc. and yet they fail to realise that Arsenal crumble every time around this time of year because they either don't play their "sexy football" and fail to win due to a lack of Plan B or they face a side that's better than them and lose convincingly, which naturally opens a whole can of worms. No side has scored more away goals than Arsenal in the Premier League this season so they're not going to make this easy for Chelsea but there's still a class between the two sides that Arsenal cannot gauge without reinforcements and a Plan B tactically.
As a Manchester United fan, I'd love to believe that Arsenal can do the business against Chelsea today but I simply don't because they're not as good as Chelsea. They've already been crushed 3-0 at home by Chelsea this season and I fail to see anything there now to change my mind, particularly with star striker Robin van Persie still injured. Ultimately, these odds are a bargain and this was a real contender for game of the day because of it!
Verdict: Chelsea to win at 4/5.
Atromitos vs Panionios - home win at evens.
Atromitos are gradually becoming a reliable home side with five wins in ten Super League games, losing just three times. Atromitos don't score excessively but they tend to keep their opponents out more often than not hence their success at home. Atromitos have won four out of their last five home games and have battled particularly well to overcome a tricky Larissa of late as well as claiming a draw at giants AEK Athens. Atromitos are working hard than ever and they're proving to a real force at home, at least for the time being. They've notched up seven goals in their last five home games so they know how to find the net and look likely to do so again today.
Visitors Panionios are better than Atromitos - I cannot deny that. However, their recent form suggests otherwise in a very convincing fashion. Panionios are without a win in seven Super League games, losing four times along the way. Panionios have managed to score just three times in their last six Super League games which is largely why they've struggled to such a degree. Panionios have already lost five out of ten away games this season and regularly concede more than they score so it's more than apparent that goalscoring is certainly becoming their biggest issue in their current campaign, and one that could do severe damage to their Super League campaign.
Atromitos will be fighting for every ball as that's their style. They do well at home, particularly lately, and have scored two goals in both of their last two home games. Atromitos have some good momentum to utilise whereas goal-shy Panionios have little to use so you have to feel that there's potentially value in the home win today.
Verdict: Atromitos to win at evens.
Udinese vs SSC Napoli - away win at 9/5.
Udinese's season goes from bad to worse with each week as they now realise that they're very much in a relgation battle. A trip to AS Roma mid-week in the Coppa Italia was unwelcome with timing and actuality so it was no surprise that Udinese limped to a defeat at the Stadio Olimpico. Udinese don't travel well as it is but Udinese had little momentum to take into that game due to just two wins in their previous nine games in all competitions. Udinese have even started struggling at home, which is a tremendous worry for them because that's the only place that they're taking Serie A points this season. Udinese's problems largely stem from the fact that they don't score enough goals. Udinese haven't won either of their last two Serie A home games, losing their most recent home game 3-2 to Sampdoria so they have very little momentum to take into this game, which ironically matches their lack of confidence.
Visitors SSC Napoli are still looking the reliable engine that I didn't expect them to be this season so fair play to them. They've managed to remain unbeaten for a majestic fifteen Serie A games, a record which is largely due to their mean defence. Napoli haven't conceded any goals in their last six Serie A games so it's generally a good call to back them to win a game with that kind of record in mind, particularly when they face goal-shy opponents like Udinese. Napoli are guilty of not scoring enough goals themselves, unfortunately, as their rigid Italian style doesn't allow them as much creativity as they'd be able to use. However, Napoli have won their last two Serie A away games 2-0 on two difficult away games to battling relegation sides that rely heavily on their home form to survive so to not even concede in those games is highly impressive in my opinion. Napoli have got tremendous momentum and their confidence is sky-high due to their stern defence so it's hard to not give them a shot at winning this game today, particularly as they're playing on a ground where they've not lost since 1996...
Verdict: SSC Napoli to win at 9/5.
Fiorentina vs AS Roma - away win at 15/8.
Fiorentina get more confusing with each passing week! We all know they're a capable outfit and should claim a top five place in Serie A by quality alone but they're simply not showing that enough on a consistent basis. They've won six out of ten home games this season, which is quite good, particularly as they're low conceders so they go into away games with confidence in defence. However, they've lost two out of their last four games, winning just once along the way, so their momentum is on its way out of the door rather quickly at the moment. Fiorentina's last home game in Serie A resulted in a disappointing 2-1 defeat by Bologna and their difficult recent away trips have resulted in respectable draw at Cagliari and a crushing defeat at in-form Palermo. Fiorentina can't possibly approach this game with as much confidence or momentum as they'd need to overcome a good side here today so I think they're going to struggle with a massively in-form AS Roma today.
AS Roma under Claudio Ranieri is frankly a completely different outfit, one I've not seen in the red of Rome for about eight years! They look organised, determined, they fight for every ball, and they take their chances. Their away form isn't as good as it should be with just three wins in eleven games but the fact that they've only lost three of those games indicates how strong they can actually be on the road. Roma have won their last seven games in all competitions consecutively and are unbeaten in eighteen games in all competitions, which is a phenomenal record. Roma aren't consistent with goals scored or conceded - I can only attribute their success to their tenacity and ruthlessness, as well as the excellent managerial skills of Claudio Ranieri. Roma are a side on fire at the moment and it'd take a braver man than me to oppose them today with their current momentum!
I predicted an AS Roma win at Juventus a couple of weeks ago despite Roma having not won in Turin for some time. I'm doing the same again today but against Fiorentina because the opportunity is there and the value is undeniable if the Romans turn up as they have been doing consistently for many weeks now, particularly against a somewhat weak and leaky Fiorentina side.
Verdict: AS Roma to win at 15/8.
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar - home win at 11/10.
Hosts Feyenoord Rotterdam are fourth in the Eredivisie table after an impressive campaign. However, unlike contemporaries Ajax, PSV, and Twente, Feyenoord base their success upon their mean defence. It's no coincidence that Feyenoord have won six out of ten home games this season having only scoring seventeen goals - almost half as many as league leaders PSV - it's because they've only conceded six goals along the way, a record bettered only by Ajax. Feyenoord have won three out of their last five games and are unbeaten in eleven games in all competitions, thus granting them tremendous momentum. Feyenoord are looking as likely as they'll ever be to win this game today and I think they've got a good chance of doing so.
Visitors AZ Alkmaar have had a season to forget for obvious reasons and I can only see it getting worse today. They've lost five out of their last eight games in all competitions, drawing twice, and winning just once. AZ's problems largely stem from the fact that they're not scoring any goals. They've only scored once in their last four games in all competitions and although they're only losing by single goals themselves in general, it's still enough to ensure that they do lose the game because they're not breaking the trend of their opponents. AZ lost at Feyenoord towards the end of December in the KNVB Beker and I fail to see any reason as to why that won't occur again today, particularly with AZ having already lost six out of eleven away games this season.
Verdict: Feyenoord Rotterdam to win at 11/10.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Twente Enschede - lay AFC Ajax Amsterdam at 10/11.
I was all set to back Ajax to win this game until I saw that the bookies had given ridiculously short odds of 8/11 on the home win. 8/11! I mean, come on - that's just ridiculous! I like Ajax and I adore their attacking fooball but they're facing a Twente side that are unbeaten all season in the Eredivisie so where the bookies get these odds from is frankly beyond me. I don't doubt that Ajax are capable of winning this game but one thing we have seen from Ajax this season is that they really struggle to break down stubborn defences i.e. home game with Poli Timisoara of Romania. Ajax couldn't break through the Twente defence in the reversal of this fixture earlier this season, losing 1-0, so I don't see why the bookies favour Ajax so much. So instead of taking the home win for this game today, I feel that there's value in laying Ajax instead because Twente are a bloody resilient side and are extremely organised defensively. Twente have won seven out of ten away games this season, drawing the other three, and have only conceded seven times along the way whilst scoring eighteen. In other words, Twente are a convincing away side so they're more than capable of taking at least a draw from this game today, particularly with no goals conceded in their last six games in all competitions...
Verdict: Lay AFC Ajax Amsterdam at 10/11.
Olhanense vs CD Nacional - home win at 8/5.
This is a dubious call but one I really rather like the look of! Olhanense are nothing more than a goal-shy battling outfit that take the majority of their points at home i.e. a typical newly-promoted side. They've been playing well lately with just one defeat in their past five games, even doing the unthinkable and winning once along the way! Olhanense have only lost four times in nine home games in the Liga Sagres this year and have played particularly well at home of late, even claiming a draw with mighty SL Benfica, albeit in December! I don't rate Olhanense as an attacking side because they don't score enough goals but their home support, tenacious style, and the smell of blood on their opponents could very well inspire them to victory today.
Visitors CD Nacional are a side I rate rather highly because they're a capable outfit. However, they've been abysmal of late and I'd expect most sides to take advantage of this fact with Olhanense not being an exception to this rule. They've lost their last three Liga Sagres games consecutively and although they've been difficult games, it's not the results that have disappointed - it's the scorelines. Losing at home to Porto in their most recent Liga Sagres game is fair enough but losing 4-0 really isn't, particularly when their strength is at home. CD Nacional are conceding too many goals and aren't scoring enough and as they're entering this game with six defeats in nine away games and little momentum to speak of, it's hard to not give Olhanense the chance to take a much-needed three points today with good odds.
Verdict: Olhanense to win at 8/5.
Fatima vs Freamunde - away win at 21/10.
I don't think I'm missing something here but I think the bookies might be. Whereas there's not much between these two sides in terms of quality, there's real gulf in momentum at the moment that simply cannot be ignored. Fatima have lost their last three Liga de Honra games and haven't won in their last four games. They've conceded seven goals along the way and scored just twice, losing their last home game 5-2 to an impressive Santa Clara. Ultimately, Fatima are looking susceptible to any side that scores against them so it'd be unfair to not consider Freamunde today.
Freamunde are on a great run of form with four consecutive Liga de Honra wins. They're not defending well but they're simply out-scoring their opponents each time with eleven goals scored in those four games, which is an average of nearly three goals per game. It's hard to ignore a side that are as potent as that and with such great momentum so I'm certainly not going to pass up on the opportunity today.
Overall, there's not much between these two sides quality-wise and there's nothing to be discerned from home and away form between the two sides so I'm riding the momentum wave and the wave is providing us with some good odds that are certainly worth a punt!
Verdict: Freamunde to win at 21/10.
Portimonense vs Desportivo Chaves - home win at 5/6.
Portimonense's cash injection this season appears to have certainly bolstered their promotion hopes with five wins in their nine home games leaving them third in the Liga de Honra. They concede more goals than they should at home but ultimately tend to out-score their opponents. They've won their last three home games consecutively and emphatically so I fail to see why their momentum and ability can't conjure up another home win today.
Visitors Desportivo Chaves have lost four out of nine away games in the Liga de Honra already this season but have done so whilst being one of the biggest scoring sides on the road, which is a tad bizarre. However, they've not scored in any of their last three Liga de Honra games and it's beginning to take a toll on their overall league placing with the relegation zone looming large. Chaves are going to have to be at their best to take anything from this game and they're simply not so I can't fathom them getting a result here today.
Verdict: Portimonense to win at 5/6.
Real Betis Balompie vs Hercules Alicante - home win at 11/10.
Real Betis are still yet to convince me properly in the Segunda Liga that they're capable of being a Primera Liga side again. However, their home form has certainly become considerably more reliable of late with four wins from their past five home games. Betis have won six out of ten home games already this season, drawing the other four games thus remaining unbeaten throughout. Betis owe their success to a mean defence that has conceded just three times at home all season, a record that cannot be matched by any other Segunda Liga outfit. Betis average scoring nearly two goals per game and with two wins in their past three games, Betis have the momentum to guide themselves to yet another home win today.
Visitors Hercules Alicante are a side that I like a lot but one that doesn't score enough away goals or indeed play well enough on the road. They lost their last game at home to bottom club Castellon, which was shocking, and have only won once in their last three Segunda Liga games. Hercules are struggling for momentum and in general on the road. Although Hercules have only lost two out of eleven away games all season long in the Segunda Liga, the fact remains that they've drawn six of those games. Hercules don't concede many but they don't score enough whatsoever, hence their problem. Hercules are not going to win this game today because they're not potent enough. What I'm banking on is them conceding to a momentum-driven Betis side that boast a strong home advantage which will thus make this call a good value bet today. It's a risky call but one that I feel has enough potential to be successful!
Verdict: Real Betis Balompie to win at 11/10.
Alcorcon vs Universidad Las Palmas - home win at 5/6.
Alcorcon are just too good for the Segunda B, bluntly. They've won eight out of ten home games in their group this season and average scoring nearly two goals per game at home too. Only a handful of sides have conceded less goals at home than Alcorcon have this season so Alcorcon certainly have the formula of success ingrained into their side. Alcorcon have won three out of their last four Segunda B games so their momentum is strong and their ability is unquestionable so they've got a good chance of winning this game regardless of their opponent!
Universidad Las Palmas don't travel well away from home in the Segunda B with five defeats in eleven games. They were crushed 4-2 by little Toledo in their last away game in this competition and tend to concede more than they score on the road, which naturally isn't a good thing! They've only won once in their last four games, losing twice along the way, so momentum is a tad short for them at the moment. They tend to out-score their opponents rather than defend stoutly which may work against lesser opponents but will come unstuck against better opponents like Alcorcon.
With a lack of momentum and consistency going into this game, it's hard to a see a poor-travelling Universidad Las Palmas taking anything from a reliable Alcorcon side that are in-form and playing on their own turf.
Verdict: Alcorcon to win at 5/6.
Basel vs Young Boys Bern - away win at 21/10.
I really wish that this game had occurred after a few games instead of being directly after the winter break because I'd feel a lot more confident on the away win today had Young Boys Bern taken some momentum into this game. However, as it's being played now, we're forced to observe this game somewhat blindly, which naturally shoots the risk aspect of this game through the roof so do approach with caution! However, I'm going to call this based upon two things, simply. One is that Young Boys Bern are simply better than Basel and the other is that Young Boys Bern have demonstrated this against Basel by beating them in their last five Super League meetings at either ground consecutively whilst scoring twelve times and conceding just four times. It's all I have to go off but frankly it looks enough to make this a value bet, in my opinion, with the bookies approaching their odds selection somewhat blindly!
Verdict: Young Boys Bern to win at 21/10.
Recommended bets in no particular order:
Racing Club Avellaneda, Porto, Sant Andreu, and Real Mallorca at 6/1.
Osasuna, Ceuta, Chelsea, and Alcorcon at 8/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Chacarita Juniors vs Banfield (7) 0-1
Estudiantes De La Plata vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (7) over 2.5 goals
River Plate vs Rosario Central (7) 2-1
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Arsenal de Sarandi (9) -1.75 handicap
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Perth Glory (7) 1-0
Gold Coast United vs Wellington Phoenix (8) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Zulte-Waregem vs Club Brugge (6) 2-1
Racing Genk vs Standard de Liege (6) 2-1
Kortrijk vs Charleroi (7) 1-0
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
OH Leuven vs Mons (6) under 2.5 goals
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Independiente Medellin (6) 1-1, at least two red cards in this game
Deportes Quindio vs Deportes Tolima (6) 1-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs La Equidad Bogota (8) 2-1
Boyaca Chico vs Real Cartagena (7) 0-0
Atletico Huila vs Cortulua (8) 2-0
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs America de Cali (7) 2-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Ermis vs Nea Salamis (7) 1-0
Apollon Limassol vs A.E.Paphos (6) 2-1
APOEL Nicosia vs Aris Limassol (9) -1.75 handicap
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona Guayaquil (7) 1-1
Macara vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-2
English Premier League:
Birmingham City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (7) 1-0
Chelsea vs Arsenal (8) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais (4) 1-0 draw no bet
Saint-Etienne vs AS Monaco (6) 1-2
Olympique de Marseille vs Valenciennes (7) 2-1
German Bundesliga:
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (6) under 2.5 goals
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt (7) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
FSV Frankfurt vs Alemannia Aachen (4)
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs MSV Duisburg (7)
Kaiserslautern vs Paderborn (7)
Greek Super League:
Atromitos vs Panionios (6) 1-0
Ergotelis vs Asteras Tripolis (5) 2-1
Iraklis vs PAOK Salonika (6) 0-0
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos (8) 2-0
Larissa vs Panathinaikos (8) 1-2
Greek B Ethniki:
Diagoras Rodos vs Agrotikos Asteras (7)
Ethnikos Piraeus vs Anagennisi Karditsas (7)
Aigaleo Athens vs Rhodos (5)
Kerkyra vs Thrasivoulos (8)
OFI Crete vs Kalamata (7)
Panaitolikos Agrinio vs Ionikos Nikaias (6)
International Friendly:
South Korea vs Hong Kong (9) -1.75 handicap
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo vs Bari (6) 1-1
Internazionale vs Cagliari (7) over 2.5 goals
Lazio vs Catania (6) 0-0
Genoa vs Chievo Verona (7) over 2.5 goals
Bologna vs AC Milan (4) 1-1
Udinese vs SSC Napoli (6) 1-2
Siena vs Sampdoria (6) 0-1
Fiorentina vs AS Roma (6) 1-2
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Monterrey (5) 1-2
Indios vs Morelia (6) 1-1
Estudiantes Tecos vs Jaguares (5) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen (5) 1-1
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar (7) 2-1
VVV Venlo vs Vitesse Arnhem (6) 2-1
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Twente Enschede (5) 0-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Olhanense vs CD Nacional (6) 1-0
Rio Ave vs Leixoes (5) 0-0
Maritimo vs Uniao de Leiria (6) 2-0
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Pacos de Ferreira (6) 1-1
Porto vs Naval de Maio (9) -1.75 handicap
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Oliveirense vs Santa Clara (6)
Desportivo Aves vs Trofense (7)
Fatima vs Freamunde (6)
Sporting Covilha vs Gil Vicente (5)
Carregado vs Penafiel (7)
Portimonense vs Desportivo Chaves (8)
Spanish Primera Liga:
Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna (6) 1-1
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Deportivo Xerez (9) over 2.5 goals
Real Mallorca vs Villarreal (8) 2-0
Osasuna vs Tenerife (8) 2-1
Almeria vs Sporting Gijon (6) 0-0
Real Zaragoza vs Sevilla CF (8) 1-2
Racing Santander vs Atletico Madrid (4) 2-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Betis Balompie vs Hercules Alicante (7) under 2.5 goals
Celta de Vigo vs Salamanca (7)
Cadiz vs Levante (5)
Castellon vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Real Union Club de Irun vs Albacete (5)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Cartagena (6)
Las Palmas vs Huesca (5)
Spanish Segunda B:
Group 1:
Mirandes vs Sestao River Club (6)
Palencia vs Athletic Club de Bilbao II (7)
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo (7)
Montaneros vs Eibar (7)
Pontevedra vs Compostela (4)
Izarra vs Racing Club de Ferrol (6)
Lemona vs Zamora (5)
Deportivo Alaves vs Guijuelo (6)
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs Osasuna II (6)
Group 2:
Alcorcon vs Universidad Las Palmas (8)
Atletico Madrid II vs Lanzarote (8)
Real Racing Club Santander II vs Real Oviedo (5)
Cacareno vs Gimnastica Torrelavega (6)
Real Sporting de Gijon II vs Real Madrid II (7)
Tenerife II vs Leganes (6)
Cerro Reyes Badajoz vs Alcala Henares (6)
Puertollano vs Vecindario (6)
Group 3:
Gava vs Benidorm (8)
Denia vs Barcelona II (6)
Sant Andreu vs Badalona (9)
Sabadell vs Orihuela (6)
Logrones vs Valencia II (6)
Alcoyano vs Terrassa (8)
Sporting Mahones vs Lleida (7)
Atletico Gramenet vs Ontinyent (7)
Espanyol Barcelona II vs Villajoyosa (6)
Alicante vs Mallorca II (5)
Group 4:
Union Estepona vs Moratalla (7)
Sevilla II vs Real Murcia II (7)
Ecija Balompie vs Polideportivo Ejido (7)
Lucena vs Granada (7)
Ceuta vs Real Betis Balompie II (9)
Aguilas vs Marbella (6)
Atletico Ciudad de Murcia vs Jerez Industrial (7)
Sangerona Atletico vs Melilla (6)
Swiss Super League:
Aarau vs Bellinzona (6) 0-0
Basel vs Young Boys Bern (6) 1-2
Luzern vs Grasshoppers Zurich (7) 1-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Penarol vs Racing Club Montevideo (7) 2-1
Atenas vs Tacuarembo (5) 1-1
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Carabobo vs Yaracuyanos (5) 2-1
Deportivo Lara vs Atletico El Vigia (6) 2-1
Estudiantes de Merida vs Llaneros de Guanare (5) 1-0
Trujillanos vs Centro Italo (7) 2-0
Monagas SC vs Caracas (6) 1-2
Zamora vs Zulia (7) 2-1
Deportivo Italia vs Deportivo Anzoategui (8) 2-1
Mineros de Guayana vs Aragua (5) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Bangor City vs Rhyl (6) 2-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Real Mallorca vs Deportivo La Coruna
For the first time ever on The Footy Tipster, I'm resigned to posting my tips without explanations. There's basically a lot of shit going on right now and I simply don't have the time to do the write-ups until tomorrow morning. Basically, you can either trust me with my selections and make up your own minds or you can check back about midday or 1pm GMT on sunday when I'll hopefully have them all written up by. Sorry for any inconvenience guys - I hope to have the situation rectified sooner rather than later!
Anyway, today's featured game is the Primera Liga game between Real Mallorca and Deportivo La Coruna. Real Mallorca are having one of their best seasons in years and don't appear to remember how to lose a game. Visitors Deportivo are playing quite well this year but aren't scoring enough goals so have struggled a little of late.
Hosts Real Mallorca have an unbelievable home record of eight wins from eight games. Only Real Madrid can better this record with their nine wins in nine home games. No side in the Primera Liga has conceded as few home goals as Real Mallorca have this season with just three conceded in eight games, scoring an average of nearly three goals per game along the way. Mallorca managed to demolish a tricky and resilient Athletic Club de Bilbao in their last Primera Liga home game and that was without two key defenders and they still kept a clean sheet. You can only respect the willpower and efficiency of Mallorca currently as they steamroller their way onwards. Mallorca tend to struggle on the road but their momentum at home is as strong as if they'd won every game prior to that particular game!
Visitors Deportivo La Coruna are a very tricky side indeed. I rate them highly. They're fourth in the table without playing brilliantly and enjoy a more "Italian" style of football - scoring enough without conceding many. They've only lost twice in eight away games which shows you that they know what they're doing defensively. Deportivo's biggest problem here in Mallorca is that they don't score enough goals whereas Mallorca almost always score. Deportivo have won just once in five games now but have only lost once too. Make no mistake - Deportivo will come here for the draw and I'd hate to see them edge in front too because they're dogged enough to keep Mallorca out if the hosts have a bad day.
Overall, this is going to be an extremely interesting game. A highly potent Real Mallorca will clash with a stubborn Deportivo defence so something has to give here. Although Mallorca's impressive record has to end somewhere, I can't see it being today - they're just too good at home. Deportivo don't have enough firepower to take three points here but they could steal a draw if fortune is in their favour. However, I'd have to back Mallorca for this game because there's tremendous value in the bet and I'm confident that they'll do it.
Verdict: Real Mallorca to win at 21/20.
Sunday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sydney vs Gold Coast United - home win at evens
There doesn't seem a lot of point putting my preview for this game as it's already been played!
Standard de Liege vs Anderlecht - away win aat 13/10.
Hosts Standard de Liege aren't kidding anyone; there's definitely major problems behind the scenes there. Their football is so inconsistent and lacking in creativity - two factors I would never associate with manager Bologni. I mean, let's examine the fact that Standard have only won once in their last six games and that was a 2-0 win against a Lokeren side that don't know how to do anything but lose on the road this season. In those six games, Standard have conceded nine goals - it's just too many! They're now eighth in the Eerste Klasse with just four wins in eleven home games. They're only been beaten once at home and are one of the lowest conceders in the division when playing at home but their big problem is that they're just not scoring enough goals.
Visitors Anderlecht are currently top of the table, leading Club Brugge by five points and are a massive nineteen points ahead of today's opponents. Although I think it's hard to carry momentum over a Christmas break, the fact remains that Anderlecht are one of the most potent sides in the division. They've won fifteen out of twenty games so far this season and have only been beaten twice on that run. They boast the best away record in the division with seven wins in ten games and score two goals per away game on average. Returning to my point about momentum, however - something you may or may not know is that Anderlecht have been playing some friendlies over the break. The one that caught my attention was their home encounter with Twente Enschede of the Netherlands, who are unbeaten in seventeen league games this season and lead their own league table. I expected a stalemate in that game, if I'm honest, which is why I was surprised when Anderlecht demolished them 5-0! Anderlecht have really turned a corner since the emergence of Lukaku and they seem to be getting better as time goes by.
Let's not beat around the bush though - this is a very difficult game for both sides because there's a good deal of history between the two, thus making this a rivalry game. Aside from that, Anderlecht really don't have a good record against Standard de Liege so I must emphasise some caution. However, my point is that they've never been better placed to make it count than today and Standard have rarely looked so fragile so the away win should hold value today.
Verdict: Anderlecht to win at 13/10.
Bolton Wanderers vs Arsenal - lay Arsenal at 7/5.
Bolton Wanderers enter this game under the stewardship of former striker Owen Coyle for the very first time, which is the first warning point - "honeymoon" period! It has some logic to it but not enough to substantiate my bet entirely, of course! Bolton have long been a good home side although they've not shown it nearly enough under former boss Gary Megson. Owen Coyle, however, knows exactly how to make home games count as he's proven on countless occasions with Burnley. Coyle knows how it works at Bolton from his past there and he'll have everyone working their socks off today. Until Gary Megson took over, Bolton used to be a place that Arsenal used to hate playing in - they rarely took anything from Bolton in those times. However, Bolton are very much a "stopper" side and I expect them to adopt that approach today with renewed vigour and they've shown in the past that they're capable of doing it successfully.
Visitors Arsenal have been playing some magnificent football this season but as we all know - it won't last. It never does. All it takes is one game and Arsenal crumble for a while, enough so to wave goodbye to their title chances. Whereas I obviously cannot be certain about it, I feel the trigger point for Arsenal was their home game with Everton last match where Arsenal were frankly outplayed by a strong Everton side that deserved to win the game. Arsenal snatched a late goal to draw 2-2 but that could be the turning point for their season - it usually happens around now! Traditionally, Arsenal struggle on trips to the north-west for some bizarre reason. Arsenal have won one out of their last two away games and have only won 50% of their away games in the Premier League this season with three of their five non-wins this season coming on trips to the north-west.
All in all, this is naturally a risky call but I simply feel that Arsenal won't win this game. I've no doubt whatsoever that they're capable of it but I don't think they will today, simply!
Verdict: Lay Arsenal at 7/5.
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Olympique de Marseille - home win at 11/10.
Bordeaux are rapidly establishing themselves as the daddies in this league as Olympique Lyonnais are quickly becoming yesterday's champions, nothing more than a memory. I wouldn't say Bordeaux play with the flair that Lyon do but they play a lot more efficiently, just like manager Laurent Blanc used to. He's a very clever manager, Blanc - you could see that he would become one after he defended so cleverly during his playing days. I don't think that it's any coincidence whatsoever that Bordeaux are far and away the best defensive side in Ligue 1 with just twelve goals conceded in nineteen games. Bordeaux have won six consecutive games and although momentum is hard to carry across the winter break, I still feel that Bordeaux will be well-motivated and confident ahead of this game, particularly considering that they drew at Marseille earlier on this season when they could and probably should have won.
Visitors Olympique de Marseille have disappointed me this season. They play well sporadically and then completely capitulate due to defensive ineptitude. They remind me a bit of Arsenal in that respect. The fact that Marseille have won more away games than home games speaks volumes about how randomly they play! Nobody has scored more away goals than Marseille have in Ligue 1 this season so this bet does carry sizable risk. However, Marseille have disappointed in games where they have to be tactically astute and this is a game where they'll need to be so I feel there's some value in the home win today.
Verdict: Girondins de Bordeaux to win at 11/10.
Koln vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund - away win at 6/5.
Koln have already lost five out of nine home games this season, winning just twice and scoring a meager six goals along the way. Koln aren't big conceders by any stretch of the imagination but their lack of goals scored tend to ensure that Koln fail to win the game. Koln are actually unbeaten in four Bundesliga games so they do bring some momentum into this game. However, quality-wise they're not in the same postal code as Borussia Dortmund and I expect that to show today.
Visitors BV09 Borussia Dortmund are finally coming into their own and have now won five consecutive games. They've only been beaten once on the road this season in eight games and have won their last two away games consecutively. Although the Christmas break was somewhat untimely for Borussia Dortmund, they'll still have some momentum and their ruthless German efficiency which they've shown perfectly of late. Borussia Dortmund are eight points behind Bundesliga leaders Bayer 04 Leverkusen but with the leaders starting to stumble now and then, it's certainly not a gap that can't be breached. I personally think Dortmund will be happy with their current placing and will be keen to push on and win more games to launch a real title challenge. Dortmund have the perfect opportunity to do so by winning at Koln today and I think there's some value in that happening today.
Verdict: BV09 Borussia Dortmund to win at 6/5.
Atromitos vs Larissa - home win at 11/10.
Atromitos have impressed me of late, particularly with their heroic comeback at what was an in-form AEK Athens, drawing 3-3. That result means that Atromitos have been beaten just once in their past four games, winning twice along the way. Atromitos are a capable side at home with three wins, three draws, and just two defeats at home all season in the Super League. Atromitos don't score as many goals as they'd like but their massive strength is keeping other sides out, something that only three out of the top four have done better than they have at home this season. Atromitos have some good momentum entering this game and are good at home so they've got the ability to take three points from this game.
Visitors Larissa have been poor on the road this season. I'd be lying if I were to say that I thought Atromitos were better than Larissa because I don't. However, six defeats in nine away games this season says otherwise. Larissa are one of the lowest goalscoring sides in the Super League when it comes to away games. Unfortunately for Larissa, that particular statistic is coupled with one that shows that they're one of the biggest conceders on the road with an average of nearly two goals per away game conceded, which should present goal-shy Atromitos with more than enough chances today.
Although this is a dubious call as I believe Larissa to be the better side, I feel there's more in favour of Atromitos today - enough for them to take three points, in fact, particularly with Larissa having lost their last three away games consecutively now.
Verdict: Atromitos to win at 11/10.
Panionios vs Levadiakos - lay Panionios at 8/5.
My interest for this bet was entirely generated by how short the odds were on Panionios - too short, basically! There's no way Panionios should be 2/5 to win this game, better side though they are. Panionios haven't won in four games and haven't scored in either of their last two. Panionios lost their last home game against a plucky Kavala side and haven't really recovered since then. A side that isn't scoring goals isn't going to win games as logic dictates. Panionios are certainly a capable side but at the moment they're looking decidedly incapable and somewhat unsure of themselves. Normally I'd be happy to stick Panionios in the "accumulator fodder" section but not with the way they're playing currently.
I don't rate visitors Levadiakos very highly at all but they're on a bit of a run of late with just one defeat in their last three games. Levadiakos have problems with conceding goals, being as they do it far too often. However, Levadiakos have scored five goals in their last three games and have only lost two out of their last five away games. Levadiakos have scored six goals in their last three away games so they're certainly beginning to awaken in terms of surviving in the Super League - whether it's too late or not remains to be seen, however.
With Levadiakos having already lost five out of eight away games this season, there's no doubt at all that this game is one of my riskiest calls today. However, I do think there's value in laying Panionios so that's what I am doing!
Verdict: Lay Panionios at 8/5.
Kavala vs Olympiakos Piraeus - lay Olympiakos Piraeus at evens.
Hosts Kavala are establishing themselves in the Super League as the side that nobody wants to play against due to their physical game. Kavala have only lost once at home this season and their style is largely the reasoning behind this fact. Panathinaikos, PAOK Salonika, and AEK Athens are just three of the sides that have fallen at the hands of little Kavala so they do know their own strength. Kavala haven't been playing too well of late but they do tend to be reliable at home so I'm banking on them turning up today, particularly against one of Greece's giants - what could be bigger motivation for Kavala?
Visitors Olympiakos Piraeus are beginning to see just how shit a coach Zico actually is but whether they'll do anything to resolve it in time is another matter. Olympiakos have lost two out of their last three games - a partially surpising defeat at Aris Salonika and a very surprising defeat at home to AEK Athens. What do both of those two sides share in common? They're both defensively-based, just like Kavala are. An unconvincing win at home to Larissa last match has not changed my mind that Zico is shit and that Olympiakos struggle with strong defensive sides - let's put it that way! Olympiakos are not firing on all cylinders and although it's a bold call to lay a side that are clearly the better side and that have only failed to win two out of eight away games in the Super League this season, I do feel that there's value in doing so today.
Verdict: Lay Olympiakos Piraeus at evens.
SSC Napoli vs Palermo - home win at evens.
I'm not a big fan of Napoli, largely because they're a nightmare side to bet on. They slip from the sublime to the ridiculous in seconds and it's rather frustrating, as I'm sure you've all experienced at somepoint. However, credit given where credit is due - they've not let me down lately and have now won four out of their last five Serie A games. Napoli are actually unbeaten in twelve Serie A games now, a run which has seen them rise to fourth in the table and take points from difficult away games like Fiorentina and Juventus. Napoli have won their last three home games consecutively so they're in a good place mentally and physically ahead of this tough tie with in-form Palermo.
Palermo are yet another frustrating Italian side. They're capable of playing really well but had rarely done so until the change of management in recent times. Palermo are unbeaten in five Serie A games despite that run including a tough trip to the San Siro to take on AC Milan, where Palermo actually won. However, the islanders are still more susceptible on the road as their record of five defeats in nine games indicates all too well. It's not that Palermo aren't capable of winning away from home because they are - it's that they don't score enough away goals why is why it rarely happens.
I've seen a few people tipping a lot of goals in this game and maybe there will be but I just can't see it myself. Napoli are not prolific and Palermo don't score on the road so I'm expecting a narrow home win tonight. There's definitely value in the home win given Napoli's excellent momentum - as long as they turn up.
Verdict: SSC Napoli to win at evens.
Racing Santander vs Real Valladolid - home win at 10/11.
Racing Santander have a bizarre home record of five defeats in nine games with just two wins to their name on their own turf. However, that was before the change in management and now we see a very different side indeed. Racing have now won four out of their last five Primera Liga games, including a very impressive win at Sevilla, and have won their last two home games consecutively. I'll be the first to admit that the two sides that Racing beat at home are not good sides but you can only beat what is in front of you, something they've failed to do for the majority of the season prior to those wins. Racing are averaging scoring over two goals per game of late so confidence is high, momentum is strong, and potency is at a maximum, making them a very difficult side to play against currently.
Visitors Real Valladolid are really starting to struggle now. Atypically they tend to draw their way out of trouble but of late they've suffered two consecutive defeats and have won just once in five games. Atletico Madrid may have been on the rise of late but Valladolid losing 4-0 at home to them wasn't an acceptable result when you consider that Valladolid pride themselves on not conceding many goals, particularly at home. With Manucho still at the African Nations with Angola, Valladolid are looking a little short of a target man and their general play is suffering as a result. Valladolid haven't scored in their last two games and look set to have a mammoth task to take something away from an in-form Racing Santander today.
Verdict: Racing Santander to win at 10/11.
Almeria vs Tenerife - home win at 10/11.
A decent 1-1 draw at home to Deportivo La Coruna set Almeria off on a little run lately which has seen them taste defeat just once in four games, even managing to win one of those games. Fair play - the win was against what is undisputedly the worst side in the Primera Liga, Deportivo Xerez, but a win is a win. Almeria need as many points as they can get and that win will have given them some hope and boosted their momentum considerably. An impressive draw at Villarreal last match indicates just what they win did for them and they'll look to further it today by using their presentable home advantage. Almeria's biggest problem is scoring goals but they've scored goals in four out of their last five games so they're not goal-shy at the moment.
Visitors Tenerife aren't a bad side but they're horrific travellers. No side has lost more away games than Tenerife have in the Primera Liga this season - even bottom club Deportivo Xerez have lost less! Tenerife have lost seven in eight away games, drawing the other encounter. Tenerife are the second-biggest conceding side away from home with an average of nearly three goals conceded per away game. That in itself is a gigantic problem but when you consider that they average scoring just one goal per two away games, you truly realise the magnitude of their problems. Tenerife are short on momentum and bereft of confidence with three defeats in four games. Their last match had to be a real hammer-blow though. A defeat against Barcelona is a perfectly acceptable result - they're an outstanding side. However, an out-of-form Barcelona side that were struggling to score goals and were struggling on the road came to Tenerife, which tends to be where Tenerife are good, and won 5-0. Tenerife will have really hurt after that result, most probably due to their home advantage abandoning them and thus look likely to taste defeat today.
Although this has the potential to be the worst game in the history of man, I do think that there's value in the home win today for an Almeria side on a bit of a run!
Verdict: Almeria to win at 10/11.
Atletico Madrid vs Sporting Gijon - home win with -1.75 handicap at 7/5.
I can't really see a point to explaining this fully because you've all seen how good Atletico Madrid have been of late and how potent they've been. We all knew that they were capable but they've finally awoken and are now tearing up whoever they face. They've scored eleven goals in their past three Primera Liga games and their momentum is strong. I rate Sporting Gijon as a tough opponent - they don't concede many goals which is why the odds are good on this outcome - but I can't see anyone being able to withstand such a potent Atletico Madrid at the moment. Sporting have lost their last two away games so they're a tad short on momentum away from home so the result here today really should see a somewhat assured home win for Atletico with them breaking the -1.75 handicap.
Verdict: Atletico Madrid to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 7/5.
Barakaldo vs Sestao River Club - home win at 10/11.
Derby day in Barakaldo sees the hosts making the most of their home advantage with two consecutive home wins. Barakaldo have already won five home games this season in ten Segunda B games and are one of the lowest conceding sides in the division when playing at home. Barakaldo aren't a great side but they're a competent side and it's almost always at home. Like I always say - trips to the Basqe country are the hardest that can be made in Spain, and I don't expect today to be an exception.
That said, today's visitors Sestao River Club are also from the Basque country which immediately tells you that this should be a feisty game. Sestao aren't as good as Barakaldo and they've illustrated that various times throughout the current season. Sestao have already lost five out of nine away games and although they don't concede excessively, they simply don't score enough goals. Sestao have only scored three goals in their last five games so that is their Achilles heel. However, derbies have a tendency to blow the shit out of statistics so we'll not read excessively into those statistics!
Overall, Barakaldo are simply the better side here. They make their home advantage count and I fancy them to do it today with their traditionally strong home performances.
Verdict: Barakaldo to win at 10/11.
Yaracuyanos vs Centro Italo - home win at 4/5.
Yaracuyanos ended the Apertura in the way I'd expected them to by finishing near the bottom of the table. However, that doesn't tell the full story with Yaracuyanos having made a good start to their campaign following promotion. Yaracuyanos managed to quickly establish themselves as a solid home side with just three home defeats in eight games. Few sides managed to score at Yaracuyanos, which was their predominant strength. Yaracuyanos struggled to score goals but they know that they have to make their home advantage count and what better way to do it than by beating fellow newly-promoted club Centro Italo?
Visitors Centro Italo had a poor start to the Primera Division following promotion and rapidly established themselves as whipping boys away from home, leaving the Apertura as one of just five sides that failed to win a single away game. Centro Italo lost six in eight away games and were one of the lowest scoring away sides in the division. Centro Italo don't concede excessively but their lack of goals tends to cause them a great deal of problems and I can't see that having changed much prior to this game.
Although it's always dubious to bet on the first game of the Clausura, I still think there's enough in Yaracuyanos' home advantage for them to take three points today.
Verdict: Yaracuyanos to win at 4/5.
Llaneros de Guanare vs Caracas - away win at 11/10.
Now this is more like it! There's nothing quite like an occasionally ignorant bookmaker, is there? These odds are laughable because they're so good - it was a real contender for game of the day. Why?
Well, Llaneros de Guanare finished bottom of the Apertura. They're not as bad as that finish made out, in my opinion, but the fact remains that nobody else in the Primera Division lost as many home games as they did with five defeats in nine games. They won just once at home in the Apertura and only Atletico El Vigia conceded more than they did at home. An average of nearly two goals conceded per home game crippled Llaneros de Guanare in every way and their meager goalscoring tally certainly didn't aid them either! Not much has changed over the summer and I can't see Llaneros de Guanare finishing much higher than they did in the Apertura, if indeed they finish any higher at all.
Visitors Caracas are one of the best sides in Venezuela - fact. I've never really made up my mind as to whether I think Caracas or Deportivo Tachira are the better side but the fact remains that they are a very good side. Caracas won five out of nine away games in the Apertura and it takes a very good side to consistently win away games in South America. No side scored as many away goals as Caracas did in the Apertura with an average of just under two goals scored per away game. Ultimately, Caracas are simply too good for Llaneros de Guanare in every area of the field and have won their last two trips there so these odds certainly baffle me!
Verdict: Caracas to win at 11/10.
Mineros de Guayana vs Deportivo Lara - home win at 5/4.
Mineros de Guayana were one of the best home sides in the division in the Apertura with seven wins in eight games, losing just once. They averaged scoring two goals per home game, which naturally assists any side in winning at home! However, to compliment that statistic, Mineros de Guayana were one of the lowest-conceding home sides in the Primera Division too so they're certainly a real home side.
Visitors Deportivo Lara had a great Apertura and managed an impressive fourth place finish. Their strength is not conceding goals as they only conceded six on the road in the whole of the Apertura, which is largely why they only lost three out of their eight away games. Deportivo Lara aren't big goalscorers but with a mean defence like that you really don't have to be! Deportivo Lara unfortunately have an excellent record against Mineros de Guayana which naturally assists the odds on their way to goodness! However, it's the first game of the Clausura, Deportivo Lara don't have any momentum to utilise so I think they're ripe to taste defeat.
It's going to be a tough game between these two and a draw is very much a possible outcome. Despite the head-to-head records favouring Deportivo Lara, I think Mineros de Guayana have turned a corner and are really making themselves an unbeatable force at home so they're as well-placed as they'll ever be to take three points from this game tonight.
Verdict: Mineros de Guayana to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder - Omonia Nicosia, Apollon Limassol, Aston Villa, Schalke 04, Panathinaikos, Agrotikos Asteras, AS Roma, Fiorentina.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
African Nations:
Gabon vs Tunisia (5) 0-0
Cameroon vs Zambia (6) 1-0
Asian Cup:
Vietnam vs China (6) under 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Sydney vs Gold Coast United (7) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Anderlecht (6) 0-1
Germinal Beerschot vs Cercle Brugge (7) 2-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Ronse vs Oostende (5)
Tienen vs Tubize (5)
Liege vs Red Star Waasland (6)
Cypriot Division 1:
Aris Limassol vs APOP/Kinyras (5) under 2.5 goals
Omonia Nicosia vs APEP (8) 2-0
Nea Salamis vs Apollon Limassol (8) 1-2
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs West Ham United (8) 2-1
Blackburn Rovers vs Fulham (6) 1-1
Bolton Wanderers vs Arsenal (4) 1-1
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Olympique de Marseille (7) 1-0
German Bundesliga:
Schalke 04 vs Nurnberg (8) under 2.5 goals
Koln vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (7) 1-2
Greek Super League:
Atromitos vs Larissa (6) 1-0
Panionios vs Levadiakos (5) 1-1
Panathinaikos vs Panthrakikos (9) -1.75 handicap
PAS Giannina vs Aris Salonika (7) 1-1
Kavala vs Olympiakos Piraeus (3) 1-1
Greek B Ethniki:
Agrotikos Asteras vs Aigaleo Athens (8)
Diagoras Rodos vs Ethnikos Asteras (6)
Doxa Dramas vs OFI Crete (7)
Ilioupoli vs Panaitolikos Agrinio (&)
Ionikos Nikaias vs Rhodos (5)
Kalamata vs Anagennisi Karditsas (5)
Italian Serie A:
Sampdoria vs Catania (5) 0-0
AS Roma vs Genoa (8) over 2.5 goals
Chievo Verona vs Juventus (5) 1-2
Atalanta Bergamo vs Lazio (5) 1-1
AC Milan vs Siena (7) over 2.5 goals
Parma vs Udinese (6) under 2.5 goals
Fiorentina vs Bologna (8) 2-0
SSC Napoli vs Palermo (7) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Puebla vs Tigres UANL (5) 1-1
Pumas UNAM vs Atlas (6) 2-1
Santos Laguna vs Morelia (6) 1-1
America vs San Luis (5) 1-0
Estudiantes Tecos vs Puebla (6) 2-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
NEC Nijmegen vs Vitesse Arnhem (6) 1-1
Utrecht vs Twente Enschede (4) 1-1
NAC Breda vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (7) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Belenenses vs Leixoes (5) 1-0
Rio Ave vs Uniao de Leiria (7) 0-0
Academica de Coimbra vs Sporting Braga (6) 1-1
Maritimo vs SL Benfica (6) 1-2
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Fatima vs Santa Clara (8)
Feirense vs Desportivo Chaves (6)
Penafiel vs Gil Vicente (6)
Oliveirense vs Varzim (6)
Carregado vs Trofense (7)
Portimonense vs Estoril (7)
Spanish Primera Liga:
Malaga vs Getafe (6) 1-1
Racing Santander vs Real Valladolid (7) 2-0
Almeria vs Tenerife (7) 1-0
Real Zaragoza vs Deportivo Xerez (6) 1-0
Real Mallorca vs Deportivo La Coruna (8) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Madrid vs Sporting Gijon (8) -1.75 handicap
Valencia vs Villarreal (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Hercules Alicante (6)
Cartagena vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Real Union Club de Irun vs Cordoba (4)
Villarreal II vs Numancia (5)
Elche vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (6)
Spanish Segunda B:
Group 1:
Osasuna II vs Athletic Club de Bilbao II (6)
Racing Club de Ferrol vs Montaneros (5)
Barakaldo vs Sestao River Club (7)
Eibar vs Mirandes (8)
Lugo vs Palencia (7)
Compostela vs Ponferradina (7)
Zamora vs Celta de Vigo II (6)
Guijuelo vs Pontevedra (5)
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs Izarra (6)
Deportivo Alaves vs Lemona (7)
Group 2:
Lanzarote vs Toledo (6)
Gimnastica Torrelavega vs Atletico Madrid II (5)
Real Madrid II vs Real Racing Club Santander II (7)
Alcala Henares vs Cacareno (6)
Cerro Reyes Badajoz vs Tenerife II (6)
Vecindario vs Universidad Las Palmas (6)
Villanovense vs Alcorcon (7)
Leganes vs Conquense (6)
Puertollano vs Real Sporting de Gijon II (8)
Real Oviedo vs Guadalajara (5)
Group 3:
Villajoyosa vs Alcoyano (6)
Badalona vs Benidorm (5)
Alicante vs Sporting Mahones (5)
Espanyol Barcelona II vs Atletico Gramenet (4)
Orihuela vs Gava (6)
Valencia II vs Denia (6)
Terrassa vs Sant Andreu (8)
Lleida vs Sabadell (7)
Ontinyent vs Logrones (6)
Group 4:
Roquetas vs Real Jaen (5)
Real Betis Balompie II vs San Roque (6)
Melilla vs Moratalla (8)
Real Murcia II vs Caravaca (5)
Jerez Industrial vs Lucena (6)
Sangonera Atletico vs Ceuta (7)
Marbella vs Ecija Balompie (5)
Polideportivo Ejido vs Union Estepona (8)
Granada vs Sevilla II (8)
Ciudad de Murcia vs Aguilas (7)
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Yaracuyanos vs Centro Italo (7) 1-0
Real Esppor Club vs Zulia (6) 1-1
Carabobo vs Deportivo Anzoategui (7) 1-1
Monagas SC vs Atletico El Vigia (5) 2-1
Llaneros de Guanare vs Caracas (8) 0-2
Mineros de Guayana vs Deportivo Lara (7) 2-1
Deportivo Italia vs Zamora (7) 2-0
Estudiantes de Merida vs Deportivo Tachira (6) 1-2
Trujillanos vs Aragua (7) 1-0
Welsh Premier League:
Airbus vs The New Saints (8) 0-2
Connah's Quay Nomads vs Llanelli (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Real Mallorca vs Almeria
Today's featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Real Mallorca and Almeria. Why? Well, happily the bookies appear to have blinkers on when it comes to Real Mallorca playing at home as their home record matches that of Primera Liga heavyweights Barcelona and Real Madrid but you wouldn't see 4/5 on a home win for either of those two, would you?!
Real Mallorca are simply a different side when playing at home. They look confident, they pass the ball well, they score a lot of goals and they almost never concede! When they're away from home they look unsure, weak defensively, and tend to lose. However, their home form is truly magnificent, particularly as their five wins from five home games is complimented superbly by a goalscoring average of nearly three goals per game. Real Mallorca have only conceded one home goal this season so it leaves minnows Almeria with a lot to do to get a result here.
Visitors Almeria have already lost three away games this season out of the five games that they've played, winning and drawing once along the way. Almeria aren't big conceders away from home but they're not big goalscorers either, which should play right into the hands of a defensively astute Real Mallorca. Almeria enter this game on a bit of a downer after a home defeat against Hercules Alicante in the Copa del Rey saw them make an early exit from the competition. Although they'll have been disappointed to have been knocked out, their bigger worry surely has to be that they didn't even manage to score in that game?
Although Real Mallorca's form of late has been patchy, their home form is absolutely outstanding and it's frankly a daunting record for sides to come here and play against. Aside from that, Mallorca are simply a better side with more innovation and more ability to put the ball in the net. The only downside I can see to this bet is that striker Aritz Aduriz is missing for Mallorca but frankly they have enough to overcome a mediocre Almeria with or without the Basque goalscorer.
Verdict: Real Mallorca to win at at 4/5.
Sunday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Newell's Old Boys vs Rosario Central - home win at 4/5.
Newells Old Boys' excellent campaign continues to roll along at tremendous pace as they've now won five consecutive games and are showing no signs of slowing down. They're joint top of the Primera Division with Banfield currently on thirty-two points with both sides starting to pull away from the chasing pack. Newell's Old Boys have won more games than any other Argentinian Primera Division side this year with ten wins in fourteen games, which is a remarkable achievement to say the least! Their home form is superb with five wins and just one defeat in their six home games, scoring a relatively disappointing nine goals but countering that by only conceding a very respectable three goals.
Rosario Central made a good start to this campaign too but have somewhat faded away since then with their away form letting them down. They've lost three out of their six away games and have only scored one away goal in their last four away games, none of which they've won. Rosario Central are a decent side but their away form is clearly their Achilles heel, something I have no doubts about hosts Newell's Old Boys exploiting tonight.
Verdict: Newell's Old Boys victory at 4/5.
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna - home win at 10/11.
This Vienna derby sees both sides in somewhat patchy form of late and with both competing in European competition next week. With that in mind, it's wise to approach this game with caution. Nonetheless, Rapid Vienna have been excellent at home this season with five wins from six games, drawing the other game and scoring an average of just under four goals per game. Only league leaders Salzburg and LASK Linz have scored more goals at home than Rapid Vienna have in the Bundesliga so far this season. To add to their convincing home form, Rapid Vienna have beaten Austria Vienna at home for three seasons running now and have scored at least two goals in each of those encounters. Rapid Vienna have good momentum entering this game with three wins in their last four games and are looking typically dangerous.
Austria Vienna have struggled a lot away from home this season with four defeats in seven away games. Although only bitter rivals Rapid Vienna can match the large quantity of goals that they've scored away from home in the Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have also conceded more away goals than any other Bundesliga side in the top half of the table. Austria Vienna also have to enter this game with the knowledge that they've only beaten Rapid Vienna once in their last six meetings at either ground, which certainly isn't the best frame of mind to enter a game with. Austria Vienna have also lost two of their last three games which leaves them somewhat short on momentum.
Although this should be a relatively close game with plenty of goals and cards alike, the statistics favour Rapid Vienna and so do I.
Verdict: Rapid Vienna victory at 10/11.
Ronse vs Tienen - home win at 11/8.
Minnows Ronse looked destined for relegation at the start of the Tweede Klasse campaign but are now beginning to show grit and are winning games. Ronse have now won three out of their last three games and their strong momentum is showing no signs of slowing down. Ronse are still second from bottom in the Tweede Klasse but a win today will see them take a further step away from relegation. Ronse have lost a shocking ten games out of the fourteen that they've played but have well and truly put that behind them with three straight wins and eight goals scored along the way.
Visitors Tienen are also battling bravely against relegation but had shown a tad more consistency than their hosts today have with some reliable home form and by taking some points away from home too. However, Tienen have lost three of their last four games now and have already lost four of their last seven away games. No side in the Tweede Klasse has conceded more away goals than Tienen have this season with an average of over two goals conceded per away game. All of the above leaves Tienen looking rather frail in comparison to their in-form hosts.
Although this game should be close in terms of quality, I suspect that the strong momentum of Ronse will lead them to a fourth successive win against relegation rivals Tienen today.
Verdict: Ronse victory at 11/8.
OGC Nice vs Toulouse - home win at 5/4.
OGC Nice have been on something of a rampage of late with four wins in their last five games. This run has seen them move to eleventh in the Ligue 1 table and has seen them overcome heavyweights Olympique Lyonnais 4-1 at home and Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 away, both of which are highly impressive results. OGC Nice have scored eight goals in their last three home games and conceded just three goals which stands them in good stead ahead of the visit of Toulouse as they look to further their run.
Toulouse are currently on a four game unbeaten run but are notorious strugglers away from home. They've won just once away from home this season in six attempts, drawing three times and losing twice. Toulouse's big problem both home and away is goalscoring, something they're simply not doing enough which can be largely attributed to the fact that Gignac simply isn't doing the business for them. His performance mid-week for France against Republic of Ireland was simply non-existent, something which can also describe his recent performances for Toulouse en mass. In my opinion, Toulouse are going to have to score in this game to have any chance of taking anything from it and I just don't believe that they will.
There's not much quality difference between the two sides but more favours the home win here than they away win and I firmly believe that OGC Nice will take three points today.
Verdict: OGC Nice victory at 5/4.
Bayern Munich vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen - lay Bayern Munich at 10/11.
Maybe it's just me but bookies seem to drastically overrate Bayern Munich. They have a tremendous past and some superb individuals at their club but they rarely show it as a team, hence the reason that clubs like Schalke 04 can come to the Olympiastadion and take a draw instead of a battering. The mere fact that Bayern Munich are eighth in the Bundesliga with just five wins from twelve games should speak volumes but it apparently doesn't to the vast majority! Bayern Munich barely average more than a goal scored per game at home and are today hosting arguably the best Bayer 04 Leverkusen side since the time of Ballack, Lucio, Ze Roberto, and Berbatov, so trouble is certainly brewing for the hosts, I feel! It surely can't help that Bayern Munich's ever mouthy directors are putting pressure on Louis van Gaal by saying that Bayern Munich's performances haven't been good enough either!
Visitors Bayer 04 Leverkusen are currently top of the Bundesliga and deservedly so with seven wins and five draws from twelve games, leaving them unbeaten in the league this season. Only Hamburger SV have scored more goals than Leverkusen so far in this campaign but nobody has conceded less goals than they have, which sets them up nicely for their trip to Bayern Munich. Although they've only won two of their last five games, much like Bayern Munich, it's hard to see the league leaders surrendering their unbeaten record to a side that simply aren't playing well enough to beat their opponents.
Bayern Munich have won just three out of six home games this season and with Bayer 04 Leverkusen yet to lose an away game, it's hard to see the misfiring hosts making amends by winning this game today against their resilient and reliable opponents.
Verdict: Lay Bayern Munich at 10/11.
PAOK Salonika vs Aris Salonika - home win at 10/11.
The Salonika derby tends to be a closely-fought contest but hosts PAOK tend to get the better of it, winning their last three home games in the Super League against Aris. The match between these two sides today looks likely to follow a similar pattern as PAOK have won four out of their five home games already this season and currently occupy third place with four wins from their last five league games. The hosts barely concede at home and have all the momentum they need to take on bitter rivals Aris today.
Visitors Aris are the Salonika side that like to get in the faces of their opponents and generally likes to be hard to beat. Aris have drawn six out of their ten Super League games this season, which speaks volumes, really. They don't appear to enjoy scoring or conceding goals and five straight draws leading into this game seems rather suggestive of the approach they'll take against their bitter rivals today. However, having not even managed to score a goal in their last three visits to PAOK in the Super League, it's hard to see Aris taking the win from this game so they're most likely going to try and steal a draw, something they've done in four of their five away games this season, losing just once.
Although this should be an energetic encounter, I expect the footballing quality to be somewhat low with just one side trying to win this game. I have faith in PAOK to get the goal that they'll need to win this game, however, and they've got the momentum to see it happen.
Verdict: PAOK Salonika victory at 10/11.
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Papa - home win at 6/5.
Unbeaten in their last four games now, Kaposvari Rakoczi enter this game with strong momentum. They've won their last two games consecutively and will look to further their good home form which sees them join a somewhat elite group with Gyori ETO FC and MTK Budapest of sides that are yet to lose a home game. Kaposvar have won three of their six home games but have drawn the other three. A slow start is largely the reasoning behind their touch-and-go home form but their recent momentum is strong and should serve them well today.
Newly-promoted Papa have rattled a few cages since promotion, particularly with their dominant home form, but they appear to now be tasting the bitter mortality of life in the Soproni Liga with just one win in their last five games. They've lost three of their last five games and appear set to enter a downward spiral. They're travelling to a difficult Kaposvar that are unfortunately in good form at the present time and Papa may just find themselves outclassed by their hosts today.
Although this game is capable of being a close encounter, I can't help but feel that Kaposvar's good form of late will see them overcome their less illustrious opponents with considerable ease today, particularly as they do boast the better side out of the two.
Verdict: Kaposvari Rakoczi victory at 6/5.
SSC Napoli vs Lazio - home win at 4/5.
This game is truly the clash of the under-achievers in Serie A this season. These two sides only have seven wins between them out of twenty-four games, which simply isn't good enough when you consider the wealth of attacking options that both sides have, particulaly hosts SSC Napoli. However, Napoli have been playing much better lately than they have all season and are now unbeaten in five games, winning three of those games, two of which were highly impressive away wins against Fiorentina and Juventus. Napoli are unbeaten at home this season and have won three of their five home games so their strong momentum should compliment their good home form rather well for this game.
Lazio have been very poor for the vast majority of this season with just nine goals scored in twelve games. Only newly-promoted Livorno have a worse goalscoring record than that and Lazio's lack of goals is causing real problems as they've now lost three of their last four games, scoring just two goals in those games. Although Lazio have only been beaten once away from home this season (drawing three and winning once) they look likely to lose that record away to an in-form Napoli today as they enter the game with zero momentum.
This is capable of being a great encounter but I can't help feeling that Napoli will make very light work of lightweight Lazio and will win comfortably.
Verdict: SSC Napoli victory at 4/5.
AS Roma vs Bari - under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Hosts AS Roma have been disappointing this year for various reasons - the resignation of Spalletti, the lack of funding available to them, the loss of Aquilani to Liverpool etc. - and their goalscoring has been strongly affected as a result of their problems. They've managed to score just eight goals in five home games this season and have really struggled against sides that are tactically astute in defence, something that Bari have in abundance. Roma are still a good side but are going to really have to work to win this game against their feisty opponents. They've emerged from their three consecutive defeats by winning once and drawing once in their last two games but still aren't scoring enough goals.
Visitors Bari have conceded less goals than any other Serie A side this season, conceding an average of just over one goal per every two games. It goes without saying that Bari are not a prolific side when it comes to goalscoring but they're rather adept at keeping other sides out, something that is perfectly illustrated by the fact that they've only lost one away game this season. Bari have only conceded two goals in their last four games and have only scored three on that run. Bari have travelled to Inter, Sampdoria, AC Milan, and Palermo without losing this season so it goes without saying that they're more than capable of doing exactly the same against a disjointed Roma.
Basically, we should see a horribly tenacious game which is likely to end goalless or with a narrow home win but one thing is for sure - there really shouldn't be many goals in this game!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
JEF United Ichihara vs FC Tokyo - away win at 5/6.
Having already been relegated, JEF United Ichihara's long battle is now over and their morale is at its lowest possible point. They have absolutely no reason to bother turning up for this game and their recent form of four defeats from their last five games suggests that it's been this way for a while. They've won a meager one game at home all season in fifteen attempts and with eight defeats in those fifteen games, JEF United Ichihara can only take comfort that Kashiwa Reysol have lost more home games than they have - that's how bad their situation actually is!
FC Tokyo have played surprisingly well this season and still harbour hopes of obtaining a place in their continental competition next season. They've won four of their last five games and boast more away wins than any other side in the J-League barring Albirex Niigata. FC Tokyo have won more than half of their away games so it's almost incomprehensible to consider that JEF United Ichihara are going to be able to stand in their way today, particularly as they have no reason to do so.
Verdict: FC Tokyo victory at 5/6.
Deportivo Xerez vs Sporting Gijon - away win at 11/8.
Deportivo Xerez are one of the worst sides in the Primera Liga - fact. They don't score enough goals, they concede too many goals, they don't have a big enough squad, and they simply play very poor football. Xerez have managed to score an abysmal three goals all season long which stretches over ten Primera Liga games. They've lost three of their five home games and generally look likely to be beaten by...well, anyone.
Sporting Gijon aren't a side I like backing away from home but you simply cannot argue with their actual form and away form of late. Gijon are unbeaten in their last five games, which includes a game at home to Real Madrid, and have managed to impressively win at Athletic Club de Bilbao recently as well as holding Deportivo La Coruna to a draw at Riazor. Sporting Gijon appear to be become more resolute than last year, which is hard to believe but they've somehow managed it! Sporting Gijon are not a prolific side but you have to feel that they're going to take at least one of their chances against their woeful opponents today, particularly as they're better than they are!
This bet largely hinges on Xerez not scoring because Gijon aren't prolific but I can't see Xerez managing to do the unthinkable and score a goal!
Verdict: Sporting Gijon victory at 11/8.
Osasuna vs Valencia - home win at draw no bet odds of 11/8.
Osasuna are making themselves hard to beat in Pamplona, as usual! They've only lost one of their five home games this season which includes tough home games with Barcelona, Sevilla, and Atletico Madrid. Their recent form has been somewhat lacking in positives but they've only lost one of their last four games. The Basque country is a hard place for any side to go and play their football but Valencia have a particularly dismal record there as they've not won away to Athletic Bilbao or Osasuna since 2006. In fact, Osasuna haven't lost at home to Valencia since since 2003. Basque football tends to be physical and in-your-face, a style of football than Valencia really struggle to deal with.
Valencia's recent form has been excellent with four wins in their last five games and they're beginning to show signs of their old ability. Nonetheless, they're making one of the trips that they really hate to make to the Basque country to take on a side that they've not even managed to score against on their last two trips to Pamplona. That said, Valencia have won four out of five away games this season, which is more than any other Primera Liga side so this is far from a dead certain home win.
This should be a very difficult and low-scoring affair as Osasuna seek to stifle Valencia and take advantage of their defensive ineptitude, something that Osasuna tend to do well against Valencia. Set pieces are going to be key in this game so it may be worth looking for a Miguel Flano goal in a narrow Osasuna win tonight!
Verdict: Osasuna victory at draw no bet odds of 11/8.
Racing Club de Ferrol vs Eibar - away win at 5/6.
Although having won their last game, Ferrol are still battling against relegation which is largely due to their three consecutive defeats prior to their win. They've managed just three wins in thirteen games and have already lost three of their six home games in this campaign. Ferrol have a big test ahead of them today as they take on arguably Segunda B's most in-form side - Eibar.
Visitors Eibar have won ten out of thirteen games in the Segunda B Group 1 with their foundation for their success being built upon a strong and water-tight defence that has conceded just seven goals in those thirteen games. Eibar's away form has a potential to be their Achilles heel as they don't score many goals but they have already won three out of six away games this season and I can't see Ferrol keeping Eibar out today.
This will most likely be a much closer game than the league table suggests but five straight wins for Eibar gives them all the momentum they need to take three points here.
Verdict: Eibar victory at 5/6.
Aguilas vs Union Estepona - home win at 23/20.
Although they're second bottom in the Segunda B Group 2 on the back of two consecutive defeats, Aguilas have always had at least a decent home record to fall back upon. They've lost just two out of their six home games this season, winning twice and drawing twice. They struggle to score goals in general and concede heavily when playing away from home. However, little Aguilas are a capable side at home if they're facing an opponent that they know they can beat - cue the entry of Union Estepona!
The foundation of this bet lies largely in Union Estepona's inability to perform away from home, much like hosts Aguilas. Only Sevilla II can match Union Estepona's horrendous away record of five defeats in six away games. They've managed to score a paltry two goals away from home whilst conceding thirteen goals (an average of over two goals per away game). Indeed, I can only list Aguilas as a worse away side than Union Estepona when taking everything into account but that's obviously not applicable today! Lastly, with three defeats in their last four games, it's hard to see the visitors changing their ways on their tricky trip to Aguilas.
Verdict: Narrow Aguilas victory at 23/20.
Chernomorets Odessa vs Zorya Lugansk - home win at 5/6.
Although Chernomorets Odessa have had a poor start to their Premier League campaign this year, the fact remains that their young squad is actually talented - they simply need to tighten up defensively. Chernomorets have struggled for form of late and it's no great surprise due to their leaky defence. Their home form of one win, one draw, and four defeats at home would normally put me right off but they are facing what is officially the worst away side in the Ukrainian Premier League - Zorya Lugansk.
The visitors may have a good home record but their away record leaves a lot to be desired with six defeats in six away games, conceding an average of three goals per away game and scoring a solitary goal along the way. No side has conceded more away goals than Zorya Lugansk which should surely give Chernomorets all the chances that their young squad requires to show their potential. Zorya have lost three of their last five games and are thus struggling for momentum and will most likely struggle against a decent Chernomorets Odessa today.
Verdict: Chernomorets Odessa victory at 5/6.
Danubio vs Club Nacional de Montevideo - away win at 7/5.
This is a bolder call than the Primera Division table suggests as these two sides are both giants in their own rights. However, the atrocious recent form of Danubio which has seen them lose three straight games and not win in their last four. Danubio's home form has been inconclusive this season and they don't appear to be in any kind of shape to sharpen up and dominate at home like they are capable of doing.
That said, both sides are still good sides that are capable of beating each other so why the away win? Well, Club Nacional de Montevideo are the only one of these two sides showing just why they're a giant in Uruguayan football as they've won nine out of eleven games so far this season. They've won four consecutive games leading into this game which gives them great momentum, something they'll no doubt require as they enter this big game. However, the most redeeming feature behind this bet has to be the head-to-head record which shows Club Nacional de Montevideo having won three of out of their last four visits here, which takes their total to four wins in five meetings between the two sides.
Although this will be a close and heated encounter, there's enough in the above information for me to take the away win at 7/5.
Verdict: Club Nacional de Montevideo victory at 7/5.
River Plate Montevideo vs Cerro Largo - lay River Plate Montevideo at evens.
This is another risky call that is hinged only on the travel of River Plate Montevideo lately and their poor form lately. I can't dispute the fact that River Plate boast the better of these two sides but their their winless run of three Primera Division games will have affected their morale and they've only won two of their four home games so far this season, which doesn't help either. What really tips the scales towards favouring my bet, however, is that they travelled to Ecuador just a few days ago to take on Liga de Quito in the semi-final of the Copa Nissan Sudamericana. The trip itself is a nightmare with the air being almost impossible to breathe there for residents of low-lying countries like Uruguay. That has to have played a part in their humiliating 7-0 defeat which will have not only tired them but severely knocked them mentally. Those two factors combined with the fact that Cerro Largo are unbeaten in their last two games and have only lost once away from home this season tells me that there's potentially some value in laying River Plate tonight.
Verdict: Lay River Plate Montevideo at evens.
Mineros de Guayana vs Yaracuyanos - home win at 5/6.
Although having lost their last match, it's the only defeat that Mineros de Guayana have suffered in their last five games which have yielded two wins and two draws. Their saving grace has always been their home form and it shows as they've won five out of six home games this season, drawing the other game. They're amongst the top goalscorers at home and the lowest conceders at home, both of which are extremely useful and pleasing allies for a home side to have.
Visitors Yaracuyanos are unbeaten in three games but have only won once in their last five games, losing two along the way. They've partially adapted to life in the Venezuelan Primera Division since promotion but have still lost three of their seven away games this season. Only Monagas SC have conceded more away goals than Yaracuyanos this season, which doesn't bode well for their tough trip to Mineros de Guayana. The visitors enjoy making life hard for their opponents but a defence that leaks an average of over two goals per away game isn't going to cause many problems for a strong home side like Mineros de Guayana.
Verdict: Mineros de Guayana victory at 5/6.
Atletico El Vigia vs Carabobo - home win at 4/5.
Despite defeat at Estudiantes de Merida last match and furthernig their poor away form, Atletico El Vigia now return to home comforts as they seek to build on their decent home form. They've won three out of their seven home games and have only lost twice there despite being thirteenth in the table. Atletico El Vigia's biggest problem is that they concede a lot of goals at home, moreso than any other Primera Division side in fact. You know you have issues when you concede more goals at home than you do away from home and Atletico El Vigia do possess this unenviable record. However, Atletico El Vigia have scored an awful lot of home goals in this campaign, more than any every other side outside of the top six in the Primera Division in fact. Atletico El Vigia are capable of playing good football and scoring goals and have the perfect opportunity to do so today against Carabobo.
Visitors Carabobo have a dismal away record, which plays a large part in my bet on this game today. They've not won in seven away games, losing five and drawing twice. They average conceding two goals per away game, which is a bad record to take to one of the biggest goalscoring sides in the division, particularly when Carabobo average scoring just over a goal per every two away games.
Both sides are enduring some poor form lately but Atletico El Vigia should be able to take three points today due to their incisive goalscoring.
Verdict: Atletico El Vigia victory at 4/5.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Asian Cup:
China vs Lebanon (9) -1.75 handicap
Jordan vs Iran (7) 0-2
Argentinian Primera Division:
Newell's Old Boys vs Rosario Central (8) 2-1
Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia De La Plata (8) 2-0
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs River Plate (6) 1-2
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix (6) 2-1
Perth Glory vs Syndey FC (6) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna (7) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Zulte-Waregem vs Mechelen (6) 1-0
Kortrijk vs Racing Genk (7) 1-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Standaard Wetteren vs Eupen (7)
OH Leuven vs Beveren (6)
Ronse vs Tienen (6)
Brazilian Serie A:
Santo Andre vs Avai (4) 1-0
Santos vs Coritiba (7) 2-1
Sport Recife vs Fluminense (6) 1-2, draw no bet
Botafogo vs Sao Paulo (7) 1-2
Vitoria vs Gremio Barueri (6) 2-0
Flamengo vs Goias (8) over 2.5 goals
Bulgarian A PFG:
Slavia Sofia vs Chernomorets Burgas (7) 1-1
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportes Tolima (5) 1-1
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Atletico Huila (7) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Karlovac vs Dinamo Zagreb (8) over 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
APOP/Kinyras vs Ethnikos Achnas (8) 2-1
Aris vs Omonia Nicosia (9) -1.75 handicap
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Mlada Boleslav vs Banik Ostrava (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg vs SonderjyskE (8) 2-0
FC Copenhagen vs Randers (9) -1.75 handicap
Brondby vs OB Odense (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec Guayaquil (7) 2-1
Deportivo Quito vs Macara Ambato (8) 2-0
Manta vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-2
English Premier League:
Bolton Wanderers vs Blackburn Rovers (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Tottenham Hotspur vs Wigan Athletic (8) 2-1
Stoke City vs Portsmouth (4) 1-1
French Ligue 1:
OGC Nice vs Toulouse (7) 1-0
Saint-Etienne vs Lorient (6) 1-1
Montpellier HSC vs LOSC Lille (7) 0-0
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6) 1-1
Hamburger SV vs VFL Bochum (8) 2-0
German Bundesliga 2:
Greuther Furth vs MSV Duisburg (6) over 2.5 goals
Augsburg vs St.Pauli (6) draw no bet
Koblenz vs Alemannia Aachen (5)
Greek Super League:
Iraklis vs Atromitos (7) 1-0
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis (9) -1.75 handicap
Panionios vs Panthrakikos (9) 2-0
PAOK Salonika vs Aris Salonika (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Greek B Ethniki:
Agrotikos Asteras vs Panaitolikos Agrinio (7)
Ilioupoli vs Diagoras Rodos (6)
Ionikos Nikaias vs Aigaleo Athens (7)
Kalamata vs Kerkyra (8)
Rhodos vs Doxa Dramas (6)
Thrasivoulos vs Anagennisi Karditsas (5)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Papa (7) 2-1
Italian Serie A:
Livorno vs Genoa (8) 0-2
AC Milan vs Cagliari (8) 2-1
SSC Napoli vs Lazio (8) 2-0
Palermo vs Catania (8) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
AS Roma vs Bari (7) under 2.5 goals
Sampdoria vs Chievo Verona (7) 2-1
Siena vs Atalanta Bergamo (7) 1-1
Juventus vs Udinese (8) over 2.5 goals
Japanese J-League:
JEF United Ichihara vs FC Tokyo (7) 1-2
Oita Trinita vs Kawasaki Frontale (8) 1-2
Mexican Primera Division:
San Luis vs Toluca (7) 1-1
Santos Laguna vs Morelia (6) 2-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs FC Utrecht (7) 2-1
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Heerenveen (8) -1.75 handicap
Willem II vs ADO Den Haag (6) 1-0
VVV Venlo vs Sparta Rotterdam (8) 1-1
PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles Almelo (8) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow (8) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Romanian Liga:
Gloria Bistrita vs Brasov (7) 1-2
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United vs Celtic (6) under 2.5 goals
Serbian Super Liga:
Hajduk Kula vs OFK Belgrade (6) 1-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Artmedia Petrzalka vs Slovan Bratislava (6) 1-2
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Domzale vs Celje (6) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal vs Real Valladolid (8) -1.75 handicap
Deportivo Xerez vs Sporting Gijon (6) 0-1
Espanyol vs Getafe (6) 1-0
Real Mallorca vs Almeria (8) 2-0
Malaga vs Real Zaragoza (5) 2-1
Osasuna vs Valencia (6) 1-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Sociedad vs Cartagena (7) under 2.5 goals
Salamanca vs Hercules Alicante (6)
Numancia vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Elche vs Real Betis Balompie (6) draw no bet
Spanish Segunda B:
Group 1:
Celta de Vigo II vs Osasuna II (6)
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs Sestao River Club (6)
Racing Club de Ferrol vs Eibar (7)
Pontevedra vs Montaneros (5)
Izarra vs Ponferradina (7)
Deportivo Alaves vs Mirandes (8)
Guijuelo vs Athletic Club de Bilbao II (6)
Zamora vs Barakaldo (6)
Compostela vs Lugo (7)
Group 2:
Conquense vs Vecindario (6)
Real Sporting de Gijon II vs Atletico Madrid II (7)
Tenerife II vs Alcorcon (7)
Cerro Reyes Badajoz vs Guadalajara (6)
Alcala Henares vs Universidad Las Palmas (5)
Leganes vs Lanzarote (8)
Cacareno vs Real Racing Club Santander II (6)
Real Madrid II vs Real Oviedo (6)
Real Sociedad Gimnastic Torrelavega vs Villanovense (7)
Group 3:
Logrones vs Mallorca II (7)
Villajoyosa vs Barcelona II (6)
Sporting Mahones vs Sant Andreu (7)
Espanyol Barcelona II vs Gava (6)
Terrassa vs Valencia II (5)
Alcoyano vs Sabadell (8)
Atletico Gramenet vs Denia (6)
Alicante vs Benidorm (7)
Ontinyent vs Badalona (8)
Lleida vs Orihuela (6)
Group 4:
Real Betis II vs Roquetas (6)
Ecije Balompie vs Melilla (7)
Sangonera Atletico vs Caravaca (6)
Marbella vs Real Murcia II (6)
Ceuta vs Sevilla II (8)
Aguilas vs Union Estepona (6)
Ciudad de Murcia vs Real Jaen (5)
Granada vs Polideportivo Eijdo (8)
Lucena vs San Roque (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Kayserispor vs Diyarbakirspor (8) 2-0
Genclerbirligi vs Istanbul BB (8) 1-1
Eskisehirspor vs Ankaragucu (7) 1-0
Denizlispor vs Antalyaspor (6) 0-0
Kasimpasa vs Trabzonspor (6) 1-2
Galatasaray vs Manisaspor (9) -1.75 handicap
Ukrainian Premier League:
Chernomorets Odessa vs Zorya Lugansk (7) over 2.5 goals
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Karpaty Lviv (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Illichivets Mariupol vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (7) 0-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Montevideo Wanderers vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Central Espanol vs Cerrito (7) 1-1
Danubio vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
River Plate Montevideo vs Cerro Largo (5) 1-1
Cerro vs Defensor Sporting (6) 0-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira (6) 1-1
Trujillanos vs Deportivo Anzoategui (5) 0-0
Llaneros de Guanare vs Zulia (6) 0-0
Centro Italo vs Zamora (7) 1-1
Mineros de Guayana vs Yaracuyanos (7) 2-1
Caracas vs Deportivo Italia (6) under 2.5 goals
Aragua vs Real Esppor Club (6) 2-1
Atletico El Vigia vs Carabobo (7) 1-0
Deportivo Lara vs Estudiantes de Merida (5) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
The New Saints vs Rhyl (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!
We're better than Liverpoll
Loading ...Supporters
Have your say
- Haruspex on Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin
What the forums are saying
- Re: In-play chat by: spatgo
September 2, 2010, 20:24 - Re: In-play chat by: spatgo
September 2, 2010, 20:03 - Re: In-play chat by: Ian
September 2, 2010, 19:47 - Re: In-play chat by: Rydogg
September 2, 2010, 18:53 - Re: In-play chat by: Rydogg
September 2, 2010, 18:52
Menu
Recent Posts
Meta
Top Commentators
- Ian (2049)
- marz (1035)
- PhilsTips (915)
- Toffeeboy (857)
- ryan (574)
- spatgo (528)
- Charlie (419)
- Ashley (418)
- mkw (364)
- Adam (307)