Occasionally a result just really makes you think “how the fuck did that happen?”, doesn’t it? It’s not often results of this nature occur in emphatic fashion but when they do you simply have to accept that you’re better off as a mortal by not knowing the answer as to remain sane. One result that occurred yesterday from frankly numerous ridiculous games in France was Grenoble Foot’s 5-0 victory over Auxerre. Auxerre conceded more goals in that game than they had in all their away games in Ligue 1 put together this season and Grenoble…well, the league table tells you all that you need to know about them! Anyway, let’s hope for more reliable outcomes today or else profit might just dwindle somewhat! Incidentally – I hope my call on the Liverpool win now makes sense to those of you who doubted it. It was yet another derby that they didn’t deserve to win, shouldn’t have won due to bad performance and having less men, yet still did manage to win! Still, a win is a win for us so I hope it made you all some money!

Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Real Mallorca and Villarreal. Real Mallorca have had a very impressive season so far and currently occupy fifth place in the Primera Liga table. Visitors Villarreal have had a sluggish season and although they’ve been gaining some momentum of late they still saw it fit to sack proven Manager Ernesto Valverde thus leaving the team in some disarray ahead of today’s game.

Real Mallorca’s home form entering this game is as impeccable as it has been all season with nine wins from nine games. Even league leaders Barcelona can’t match that record so the islanders are alone in that sense barring the record of giants Real Madrid. Real Mallorca average scoring nearly three goals per game at home and have only conceded three goals in all of those nine home games, which is not only an average of a goal conceded per every three games played but also is a record that no other Primera Liga side can even get near, let alone match. Mallorca have had their attention caught up by the Copa del Rey in recent times and their performances have suffered as a result. However, they’re out of the competition now and have had a week’s rest so will be ready and waiting for Villarreal today.

Villarreal’s dismal campaign was in the process of being turned around by talented Manager Ernesto Valverde when the board of infinite wisdom at Villarreal decided to sack him despite the transfer window having ended days before. This is a stupid decision on various levels so frankly I hope Villarreal get what is coming to them! Valverde is a bloody good Manager and because he’s not emulated the work of Pellegrini in six months that makes him a bad Manager?! Ridiculous! They’ve appointed Castillo as Manager so we’ll have to see how that works out for them but this is the last thing that a rejuvenated Villarreal side needed ahead of a trip to an organised and extremely efficient Real Mallorca. Villarreal have already lost six out of nine away games in the Primera Liga this season and average conceding nearly two goals per game. Villarreal have only won one of their last five games so are struggling and this trip looks particularly unwelcome given the above information.

Although Mallorca’s incredible run will inevitably end at somepoint, I fail to see why it should be today. They’re well-rested after their focused cup campaign and they’re on their own turf, somewhere that has not only served them well but somewhere that is now a source of confidence for them. Sides are beginning to be afraid to travel to Mallorca and I can’t except a disgruntled and confused Villarreal from this equation. Villarreal have already proven to be poor travellers this season and I see no reason why that should change today.

Incidentally, for those of you who share the belief on the Manager “honeymoon period” – that tends to take place in the side’s first home game rather than first overall game!

Verdict: Real Mallorca to win at 5/4.

Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Chacarita Juniors vs Banfield – away win at 11/8.

Hosts Chacarita Juniors have only played two games of the Clausura but already have a rough idea of where they stand in the Primera Division hierachy. With a win at troubled Tigre, Chacarita enforced their status as being more than relegation fodder. However, defeat at home to a relatively average River Plate side in such a convincing fashion leaves Chacarita still looking susceptible to sides that have at least some ability. Chacarita have seemingly increased their potency since their Apertura campaign but unfortunately their ability to concede goals has also increased so Chacarita are set to trouble weaker sides more but struggle moreso against the bigger sides. I can’t see Chacarita finishing above 12th in the Clausura so they’ll do well to take points from sides better than they are like today’s visitors Banfield are.

Banfield have only played one game in the Clausura thus far and that was a convincing and efficient 1-0 win at River Plate. Apertura champions Banfield have seemingly stiffened their resolve to be a force in Argentina by becoming more compact in defence and playing more efficiently in attack. Banfield only lost one away game in the Apertura but won five times so their ability really cannot be questioned currently. Their problem was always scoring enough goals because as far as conceding goals goes, they’re the best side in the Primera Division. They only conceded six goals in their ten away games in the Apertura so they’re well-placed to do the same again in the Clausura.

Although there’s little to go off from these two sides at such an early stage of the Clausura, what remains very obvious to me is that there’s a real class difference between the two sides and Banfield shouldn’t have any problems scoring against their lesser opponents. I expect a somewhat comfortable away win for what is arguably the best side in Argentina currently.

Verdict: Banfield to win at 11/8.

Zulte-Waregem vs Club Brugge – home win at 17/10.

Zulte-Waregem are one of the Eerste Klasse’s better footballing sides. They play good football mostly at home, something which is particularly evident from their record of seven wins, two draws, and just two defeats in eleven home games. They average scoring nearly two goals per game and average conceding less than a goal per game so it stands to reason that Zulte-Waregem win most of their home games. Zulte-Waregem have only been beaten once in their last five games, winning three times and drawing once so their momentum is strong. They’re a very able side on their own turf and should cause a significant number of problems for their more illustrious opponents today, enough so to potentially cause an upset.

Club Brugge don’t have a good record here with just one win in their last five visits in all competitions, losing their other four games. The two sides normally play out a good game of football but I think it’s fair to say that this is something of a “bogey” ground for Club Brugge. Club Brugge don’t enter this game in great momentum at all with four defeats in their last five games in all competitions. I’ll give Club Brugge the respect they deserve because those defeats do cover two competitions but the fact is that they’re conceding too many goals too easily of late with twelve goals conceded in those five games. Club Brugge have lost to AA Gent and Racing Genk on the road in recent times and Zulte-Waregem are on a par with at least one of them so should present a similar threat. Club Brugge’s 3-2 defeat at bitter rivals Anderlecht last match won’t have improved their morale ahead of this tough game so I think the visitors could be in for a rough ride today.

There’s no denying that Club Brugge are the better of these two sides which is why the odds rightfully favour them. However, momentum has dried up for them lately, much like their goals tally, whilst their goals conceded tally goes through the roof so the visitors are not shaping up well. Zulte-Waregem have enough momentum, home advantage, and confidence from their head-to-head records with Club Brugge to cause a potential upset today and the odds are good enough to see it happen at.

Verdict: Zulte-Waregem to win at 17/10.

Kortrijk vs Charleroi – home win at 10/11.

Little Kortrijk enjoy being one of the division’s tougher sides to travel to, something which is emphasised by the fact that they’ve won six out of eleven home games this season without being prolific. Kortrijk are frankly are a tenacious side that never know when they’re beaten and always seem to do just enough to secure a win when required. They’ve won their last two home games consecutively so their momentum is quite good although a defeat at Standard de Liege last match will have taken some of the wind out of their sails although not because they were beaten – more because they were leading and threw it away all too easily. Kortrijk are nonetheless a side that will stop at nothing so they’re as well-placed as ever to make life tough for their opponents today, particularly with their convincing home record.

Visitors Charleroi were another victim of Standard de Liege of late although Charleroi’s defeat was considerably more unfortunate with today’s hosts pulling back from two behind only to concede in the last minute and lose 3-2. Call it what you will – unlucky, misfortunate, bad refereeing etc. – there’s only so many excuses you can use before you realise that Charleroi, despite their potential, are in a relegation battle. They’ve lost four out of ten away games and have only scored nine times along the way. Charleroi don’t concede excessively on the road but it’s usually enough to lose the game due to their goal-shy nature. Charleroi have zero momentum ahead of this game with three consecutive defeats on their backs and have conceded an average of over two goals per game along the way whilst scoring just once. Bluntly – Charleroi aren’t playing well enough to take something from this game unless Kortrijk draw a blank in this game.

Verdict: Kortrijk to win at 10/11.

Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs America de Cali – home win at 10/11.

As it’s still early in the Primera A campaign, there’s not an awful lot I can write for you regarding this game. America de Cali fought hard to draw 2-2 in their opening game of this campaign with Atletico Huila but it’s a game that they should be winning if they had any real level of quality in their squad, which they frankly don’t. Hosts Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota draw at last year’s group winners Independiente Medellin in their opening game and that’s frankly a result I respect them a lot for because Independiente Medellin are extremely strong at home and Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota don’t travel as well as they’d like. Today’s hosts were only beaten once in their nine home games in their last campaign whilst winning five times and scoring over two goals per game on average, a record bettered only by Atletico Junior Barranquilla. Ultimately, Independiente are still a potent side and are still a class above America de Cali so why the bookies are giving such generous odds on this game is beyond me, particularly when Independiente are as good at home as they are and particularly when Independiente have won this fixture for four consecutive meetings whilst only conceding once.

Verdict: Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota to win at 10/11.

Birmingham City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers - home win at 5/6.

Although Birmingham City’s promising run of late was brought to an abrupt end by Chelesa at Stamford Bridge in recent times, the fact remains that Birmingham are a very well-organised unit and are capable of beating sides with some ease. The statistics say that Birmingham haven’t won in three Premier League games. However, the realistic approach says that Birmingham have hosted reigning champions Manchester United, visited last year’s runners-up Chelsea, and have hosted one of the best Tottenham Hotspur sides for years. The mere fact that they’ve only lost once on that run is frankly impressive, in my humble opinion. However, Birmingham are back to basics with something of a local derby against Wolves and are back on familiar ground as they know this is a side that they can beat. Birmingham have already won five home games out of twelve, losing just twice. They’re the joint-lowest conceding side at home in the Premier League along with bitter rivals Aston Villa at the moment so they’ve still got a stubborn defence. Birmingham are still scoring their “telling goal” in recent times which usually wins them the game but games against harder opponents have naturally proved to be…well, harder! However, Wolves are a side that can be undone by a solitary goal and McGleish will be keen to get his side back on track for their surprise UEFA Europa League place push.

Visitors Wolves have fought valiantly in their last two games as you’d expect any Mick McCarthy side to do but frankly the bottom line is that they’ve got just a point from each game. Whereas that outcome is something that you can respect from their home game with Liverpool, the fact that they scored twice at Hull City in their last Premier League game and still failed to win speaks volumes about Wolves. They simply concede too many goals without scoring enough themselves. They’re never short of effort but the fact that they’ve lost six times in eleven away games whilst conceding twenty-three goals and scoring just ten emphasises my point further still. Wolves are beginning to run a tad dry with creativity and momentum so may be susceptible to defeat today.

Although this is a derby of sorts, you have to feel that Birmingham will take three points. They’ve got a better squad, they’re far more efficient, they’re better organised, and they rarely concede goals. I fail to see how a goal-shy Wolves are going to score in this game and thus I expect a narrow home win today.

Verdict: Birmingham City to win at 5/6.

Chelsea vs Arsenal – home win at 4/5.

Chelsea have already won eleven out of twelve home games in the Premier League this season and only drew the other game. They’re a real force at Stamford Bridge regardless of how they’re playing and are easily one of the top two sides in the Premier League in terms of quality. They average scoring over three goals per game at home and concede just over a goal per every two home games. Chelsea drew mid-week at Hull City somewhat unfortunately but won their four games prior to that so their momentum is still strong. Only Essien is missing from their what I would call “key players” but I can’t see that being too much of a miss against an Arsenal side that currently don’t know how to defend i.e. Chelsea are going to score more goals than Arsenal. Chelsea have a dominant record against their London rivals with Chelsea having won four out of their last five meetings at either ground with Arsenal and usually in convincing style too. Let’s face it – Chelsea are a class above Arsenal as far as efficiency and ruthlessness goes and that’s why they tend to win these games.

Arsenal are a wonderful footballing side when it suits them but completely lack grit and experience when they need it, as well as ruthlessness in front of goal. Had Arsenal utilised their chances better against Manchester United last weekend then we might have seen a difference scoreline but we didn’t. Arsenal were at fault defensively for at least one of the goals and it could have been more due to the exact same reasoning. Every year pundits prattle on about how it could be Arsenal’s year etc. and yet they fail to realise that Arsenal crumble every time around this time of year because they either don’t play their “sexy football” and fail to win due to a lack of Plan B or they face a side that’s better than them and lose convincingly, which naturally opens a whole can of worms. No side has scored more away goals than Arsenal in the Premier League this season so they’re not going to make this easy for Chelsea but there’s still a class between the two sides that Arsenal cannot gauge without reinforcements and a Plan B tactically.

As a Manchester United fan, I’d love to believe that Arsenal can do the business against Chelsea today but I simply don’t because they’re not as good as Chelsea. They’ve already been crushed 3-0 at home by Chelsea this season and I fail to see anything there now to change my mind, particularly with star striker Robin van Persie still injured. Ultimately, these odds are a bargain and this was a real contender for game of the day because of it!

Verdict: Chelsea to win at 4/5.

Atromitos vs Panionios – home win at evens.

Atromitos are gradually becoming a reliable home side with five wins in ten Super League games, losing just three times. Atromitos don’t score excessively but they tend to keep their opponents out more often than not hence their success at home. Atromitos have won four out of their last five home games and have battled particularly well to overcome a tricky Larissa of late as well as claiming a draw at giants AEK Athens. Atromitos are working hard than ever and they’re proving to a real force at home, at least for the time being. They’ve notched up seven goals in their last five home games so they know how to find the net and look likely to do so again today.

Visitors Panionios are better than Atromitos – I cannot deny that. However, their recent form suggests otherwise in a very convincing fashion. Panionios are without a win in seven Super League games, losing four times along the way. Panionios have managed to score just three times in their last six Super League games which is largely why they’ve struggled to such a degree. Panionios have already lost five out of ten away games this season and regularly concede more than they score so it’s more than apparent that goalscoring is certainly becoming their biggest issue in their current campaign, and one that could do severe damage to their Super League campaign.

Atromitos will be fighting for every ball as that’s their style. They do well at home, particularly lately, and have scored two goals in both of their last two home games. Atromitos have some good momentum to utilise whereas goal-shy Panionios have little to use so you have to feel that there’s potentially value in the home win today.

Verdict: Atromitos to win at evens.

Udinese vs SSC Napoli – away win at 9/5.

Udinese’s season goes from bad to worse with each week as they now realise that they’re very much in a relgation battle. A trip to AS Roma mid-week in the Coppa Italia was unwelcome with timing and actuality so it was no surprise that Udinese limped to a defeat at the Stadio Olimpico. Udinese don’t travel well as it is but Udinese had little momentum to take into that game due to just two wins in their previous nine games in all competitions. Udinese have even started struggling at home, which is a tremendous worry for them because that’s the only place that they’re taking Serie A points this season. Udinese’s problems largely stem from the fact that they don’t score enough goals. Udinese haven’t won either of their last two Serie A home games, losing their most recent home game 3-2 to Sampdoria so they have very little momentum to take into this game, which ironically matches their lack of confidence.

Visitors SSC Napoli are still looking the reliable engine that I didn’t expect them to be this season so fair play to them. They’ve managed to remain unbeaten for a majestic fifteen Serie A games, a record which is largely due to their mean defence. Napoli haven’t conceded any goals in their last six Serie A games so it’s generally a good call to back them to win a game with that kind of record in mind, particularly when they face goal-shy opponents like Udinese. Napoli are guilty of not scoring enough goals themselves, unfortunately, as their rigid Italian style doesn’t allow them as much creativity as they’d be able to use. However, Napoli have won their last two Serie A away games 2-0 on two difficult away games to battling relegation sides that rely heavily on their home form to survive so to not even concede in those games is highly impressive in my opinion. Napoli have got tremendous momentum and their confidence is sky-high due to their stern defence so it’s hard to not give them a shot at winning this game today, particularly as they’re playing on a ground where they’ve not lost since 1996…

Verdict: SSC Napoli to win at 9/5.

Fiorentina vs AS Roma - away win at 15/8.

Fiorentina get more confusing with each passing week! We all know they’re a capable outfit and should claim a top five place in Serie A by quality alone but they’re simply not showing that enough on a consistent basis. They’ve won six out of ten home games this season, which is quite good, particularly as they’re low conceders so they go into away games with confidence in defence. However, they’ve lost two out of their last four games, winning just once along the way, so their momentum is on its way out of the door rather quickly at the moment. Fiorentina’s last home game in Serie A resulted in a disappointing 2-1 defeat by Bologna and their difficult recent away trips have resulted in respectable draw at Cagliari and a crushing defeat at in-form Palermo. Fiorentina can’t possibly approach this game with as much confidence or momentum as they’d need to overcome a good side here today so I think they’re going to struggle with a massively in-form AS Roma today.

AS Roma under Claudio Ranieri is frankly a completely different outfit, one I’ve not seen in the red of Rome for about eight years! They look organised, determined, they fight for every ball, and they take their chances. Their away form isn’t as good as it should be with just three wins in eleven games but the fact that they’ve only lost three of those games indicates how strong they can actually be on the road. Roma have won their last seven games in all competitions consecutively and are unbeaten in eighteen games in all competitions, which is a phenomenal record. Roma aren’t consistent with goals scored or conceded - I can only attribute their success to their tenacity and ruthlessness, as well as the excellent managerial skills of Claudio Ranieri. Roma are a side on fire at the moment and it’d take a braver man than me to oppose them today with their current momentum!

I predicted an AS Roma win at Juventus a couple of weeks ago despite Roma having not won in Turin for some time. I’m doing the same again today but against Fiorentina because the opportunity is there and the value is undeniable if the Romans turn up as they have been doing consistently for many weeks now, particularly against a somewhat weak and leaky Fiorentina side.

Verdict: AS Roma to win at 15/8.

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar – home win at 11/10.

Hosts Feyenoord Rotterdam are fourth in the Eredivisie table after an impressive campaign. However, unlike contemporaries Ajax, PSV, and Twente, Feyenoord base their success upon their mean defence. It’s no coincidence that Feyenoord have won six out of ten home games this season having only scoring seventeen goals – almost half as many as league leaders PSV – it’s because they’ve only conceded six goals along the way, a record bettered only by Ajax. Feyenoord have won three out of their last five games and are unbeaten in eleven games in all competitions, thus granting them tremendous momentum. Feyenoord are looking as likely as they’ll ever be to win this game today and I think they’ve got a good chance of doing so.

Visitors AZ Alkmaar have had a season to forget for obvious reasons and I can only see it getting worse today. They’ve lost five out of their last eight games in all competitions, drawing twice, and winning just once. AZ’s problems largely stem from the fact that they’re not scoring any goals. They’ve only scored once in their last four games in all competitions and although they’re only losing by single goals themselves in general, it’s still enough to ensure that they do lose the game because they’re not breaking the trend of their opponents. AZ lost at Feyenoord towards the end of December in the KNVB Beker and I fail to see any reason as to why that won’t occur again today, particularly with AZ having already lost six out of eleven away games this season.

Verdict: Feyenoord Rotterdam to win at 11/10.

AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Twente Enschede – lay AFC Ajax Amsterdam at 10/11.

I was all set to back Ajax to win this game until I saw that the bookies had given ridiculously short odds of 8/11 on the home win. 8/11! I mean, come on – that’s just ridiculous! I like Ajax and I adore their attacking fooball but they’re facing a Twente side that are unbeaten all season in the Eredivisie so where the bookies get these odds from is frankly beyond me. I don’t doubt that Ajax are capable of winning this game but one thing we have seen from Ajax this season is that they really struggle to break down stubborn defences i.e. home game with Poli Timisoara of Romania. Ajax couldn’t break through the Twente defence in the reversal of this fixture earlier this season, losing 1-0, so I don’t see why the bookies favour Ajax so much. So instead of taking the home win for this game today, I feel that there’s value in laying Ajax instead because Twente are a bloody resilient side and are extremely organised defensively. Twente have won seven out of ten away games this season, drawing the other three, and have only conceded seven times along the way whilst scoring eighteen. In other words, Twente are a convincing away side so they’re more than capable of taking at least a draw from this game today, particularly with no goals conceded in their last six games in all competitions…

Verdict: Lay AFC Ajax Amsterdam at 10/11.

Olhanense vs CD Nacional – home win at 8/5.

This is a dubious call but one I really rather like the look of! Olhanense are nothing more than a goal-shy battling outfit that take the majority of their points at home i.e. a typical newly-promoted side. They’ve been playing well lately with just one defeat in their past five games, even doing the unthinkable and winning once along the way! Olhanense have only lost four times in nine home games in the Liga Sagres this year and have played particularly well at home of late, even claiming a draw with mighty SL Benfica, albeit in December! I don’t rate Olhanense as an attacking side because they don’t score enough goals but their home support, tenacious style, and the smell of blood on their opponents could very well inspire them to victory today.

Visitors CD Nacional are a side I rate rather highly because they’re a capable outfit. However, they’ve been abysmal of late and I’d expect most sides to take advantage of this fact with Olhanense not being an exception to this rule. They’ve lost their last three Liga Sagres games consecutively and although they’ve been difficult games, it’s not the results that have disappointed – it’s the scorelines. Losing at home to Porto in their most recent Liga Sagres game is fair enough but losing 4-0 really isn’t, particularly when their strength is at home. CD Nacional are conceding too many goals and aren’t scoring enough and as they’re entering this game with six defeats in nine away games and little momentum to speak of, it’s hard to not give Olhanense the chance to take a much-needed three points today with good odds.

Verdict: Olhanense to win at 8/5.

Fatima vs Freamunde – away win at 21/10.

I don’t think I’m missing something here but I think the bookies might be. Whereas there’s not much between these two sides in terms of quality, there’s real gulf in momentum at the moment that simply cannot be ignored. Fatima have lost their last three Liga de Honra games and haven’t won in their last four games. They’ve conceded seven goals along the way and scored just twice, losing their last home game 5-2 to an impressive Santa Clara. Ultimately, Fatima are looking susceptible to any side that scores against them so it’d be unfair to not consider Freamunde today.

Freamunde are on a great run of form with four consecutive Liga de Honra wins. They’re not defending well but they’re simply out-scoring their opponents each time with eleven goals scored in those four games, which is an average of nearly three goals per game. It’s hard to ignore a side that are as potent as that and with such great momentum so I’m certainly not going to pass up on the opportunity today.

Overall, there’s not much between these two sides quality-wise and there’s nothing to be discerned from home and away form between the two sides so I’m riding the momentum wave and the wave is providing us with some good odds that are certainly worth a punt!

Verdict: Freamunde to win at 21/10.

Portimonense vs Desportivo Chaves – home win at 5/6.

Portimonense’s cash injection this season appears to have certainly bolstered their promotion hopes with five wins in their nine home games leaving them third in the Liga de Honra. They concede more goals than they should at home but ultimately tend to out-score their opponents. They’ve won their last three home games consecutively and emphatically so I fail to see why their momentum and ability can’t conjure up another home win today.

Visitors Desportivo Chaves have lost four out of nine away games in the Liga de Honra already this season but have done so whilst being one of the biggest scoring sides on the road, which is a tad bizarre. However, they’ve not scored in any of their last three Liga de Honra games and it’s beginning to take a toll on their overall league placing with the relegation zone looming large. Chaves are going to have to be at their best to take anything from this game and they’re simply not so I can’t fathom them getting a result here today.

Verdict: Portimonense to win at 5/6.

Real Betis Balompie vs Hercules Alicante – home win at 11/10.

Real Betis are still yet to convince me properly in the Segunda Liga that they’re capable of being a Primera Liga side again. However, their home form has certainly become considerably more reliable of late with four wins from their past five home games. Betis have won six out of ten home games already this season, drawing the other four games thus remaining unbeaten throughout. Betis owe their success to a mean defence that has conceded just three times at home all season, a record that cannot be matched by any other Segunda Liga outfit. Betis average scoring nearly two goals per game and with two wins in their past three games, Betis have the momentum to guide themselves to yet another home win today.

Visitors Hercules Alicante are a side that I like a lot but one that doesn’t score enough away goals or indeed play well enough on the road. They lost their last game at home to bottom club Castellon, which was shocking, and have only won once in their last three Segunda Liga games. Hercules are struggling for momentum and in general on the road. Although Hercules have only lost two out of eleven away games all season long in the Segunda Liga, the fact remains that they’ve drawn six of those games. Hercules don’t concede many but they don’t score enough whatsoever, hence their problem. Hercules are not going to win this game today because they’re not potent enough. What I’m banking on is them conceding to a momentum-driven Betis side that boast a strong home advantage which will thus make this call a good value bet today. It’s a risky call but one that I feel has enough potential to be successful!

Verdict: Real Betis Balompie to win at 11/10.

Alcorcon vs Universidad Las Palmas – home win at 5/6.

Alcorcon are just too good for the Segunda B, bluntly. They’ve won eight out of ten home games in their group this season and average scoring nearly two goals per game at home too. Only a handful of sides have conceded less goals at home than Alcorcon have this season so Alcorcon certainly have the formula of success ingrained into their side. Alcorcon have won three out of their last four Segunda B games so their momentum is strong and their ability is unquestionable so they’ve got a good chance of winning this game regardless of their opponent!

Universidad Las Palmas don’t travel well away from home in the Segunda B with five defeats in eleven games. They were crushed 4-2 by little Toledo in their last away game in this competition and tend to concede more than they score on the road, which naturally isn’t a good thing! They’ve only won once in their last four games, losing twice along the way, so momentum is a tad short for them at the moment. They tend to out-score their opponents rather than defend stoutly which may work against lesser opponents but will come unstuck against better opponents like Alcorcon.

With a lack of momentum and consistency going into this game, it’s hard to a see a poor-travelling Universidad Las Palmas taking anything from a reliable Alcorcon side that are in-form and playing on their own turf.

Verdict: Alcorcon to win at 5/6.

Basel vs Young Boys Bern – away win at 21/10.

I really wish that this game had occurred after a few games instead of being directly after the winter break because I’d feel a lot more confident on the away win today had Young Boys Bern taken some momentum into this game. However, as it’s being played now, we’re forced to observe this game somewhat blindly, which naturally shoots the risk aspect of this game through the roof so do approach with caution! However, I’m going to call this based upon two things, simply. One is that Young Boys Bern are simply better than Basel and the other is that Young Boys Bern have demonstrated this against Basel by beating them in their last five Super League meetings at either ground consecutively whilst scoring twelve times and conceding just four times. It’s all I have to go off but frankly it looks enough to make this a value bet, in my opinion, with the bookies approaching their odds selection somewhat blindly!

Verdict: Young Boys Bern to win at 21/10.

Recommended bets in no particular order:

Racing Club Avellaneda, Porto, Sant Andreu, and Real Mallorca at 6/1.

Osasuna, Ceuta, Chelsea, and Alcorcon at 8/1.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Chacarita Juniors vs Banfield (7) 0-1
Estudiantes De La Plata vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (7) over 2.5 goals
River Plate vs Rosario Central (7) 2-1
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Arsenal de Sarandi (9) -1.75 handicap

Australian A-League:

Sydney FC vs Perth Glory (7) 1-0
Gold Coast United vs Wellington Phoenix (8) 2-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Zulte-Waregem vs Club Brugge (6) 2-1
Racing Genk vs Standard de Liege (6) 2-1
Kortrijk vs Charleroi (7) 1-0

Belgian Tweede Klasse:

OH Leuven vs Mons (6) under 2.5 goals

Colombian Primera A:

Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Independiente Medellin (6) 1-1, at least two red cards in this game
Deportes Quindio vs Deportes Tolima (6) 1-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs La Equidad Bogota (8) 2-1
Boyaca Chico vs Real Cartagena (7) 0-0
Atletico Huila vs Cortulua (8) 2-0
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs America de Cali (7) 2-0

Cypriot Division 1:

Ermis vs Nea Salamis (7) 1-0
Apollon Limassol vs A.E.Paphos (6) 2-1
APOEL Nicosia vs Aris Limassol (9) -1.75 handicap

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Universidad Catolica vs Barcelona Guayaquil (7) 1-1
Macara vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-2

English Premier League:

Birmingham City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (7) 1-0
Chelsea vs Arsenal (8) over 2.5 goals

French Ligue 1:

Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais (4) 1-0 draw no bet
Saint-Etienne vs AS Monaco (6) 1-2
Olympique de Marseille vs Valenciennes (7) 2-1

German Bundesliga:

FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (6) under 2.5 goals
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt (7) over 2.5 goals

German Bundesliga 2:

FSV Frankfurt vs Alemannia Aachen (4)
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs MSV Duisburg (7)
Kaiserslautern vs Paderborn (7)

Greek Super League:

Atromitos vs Panionios (6) 1-0
Ergotelis vs Asteras Tripolis (5) 2-1
Iraklis vs PAOK Salonika (6) 0-0
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos (8) 2-0
Larissa vs Panathinaikos (8) 1-2

Greek B Ethniki:

Diagoras Rodos vs Agrotikos Asteras (7)
Ethnikos Piraeus vs Anagennisi Karditsas (7)
Aigaleo Athens vs Rhodos (5)
Kerkyra vs Thrasivoulos (8)
OFI Crete vs Kalamata (7)
Panaitolikos Agrinio vs Ionikos Nikaias (6)

International Friendly:

South Korea vs Hong Kong (9) -1.75 handicap

Italian Serie A:

Atalanta Bergamo vs Bari (6) 1-1
Internazionale vs Cagliari (7) over 2.5 goals
Lazio vs Catania (6) 0-0
Genoa vs Chievo Verona (7) over 2.5 goals
Bologna vs AC Milan (4) 1-1
Udinese vs SSC Napoli (6) 1-2
Siena vs Sampdoria (6) 0-1
Fiorentina vs AS Roma (6) 1-2

Mexican Primera Division:

Toluca vs Monterrey (5) 1-2
Indios vs Morelia (6) 1-1
Estudiantes Tecos vs Jaguares (5) over 2.5 goals

Dutch Eredivisie:

RKC Waalwijk vs NEC Nijmegen (5) 1-1
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar (7) 2-1
VVV Venlo vs Vitesse Arnhem (6) 2-1
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Twente Enschede (5) 0-0

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Olhanense vs CD Nacional (6) 1-0
Rio Ave vs Leixoes (5) 0-0
Maritimo vs Uniao de Leiria (6) 2-0
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Pacos de Ferreira (6) 1-1
Porto vs Naval de Maio (9) -1.75 handicap

Portuguese Liga de Honra:

Oliveirense vs Santa Clara (6)
Desportivo Aves vs Trofense (7)
Fatima vs Freamunde (6)
Sporting Covilha vs Gil Vicente (5)
Carregado vs Penafiel (7)
Portimonense vs Desportivo Chaves (8)

Spanish Primera Liga:

Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna (6) 1-1
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Deportivo Xerez (9) over 2.5 goals
Real Mallorca vs Villarreal (8) 2-0
Osasuna vs Tenerife (8) 2-1
Almeria vs Sporting Gijon (6) 0-0
Real Zaragoza vs Sevilla CF (8) 1-2
Racing Santander vs Atletico Madrid (4) 2-2

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Real Betis Balompie vs Hercules Alicante (7) under 2.5 goals
Celta de Vigo vs Salamanca (7)
Cadiz vs Levante (5)
Castellon vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Real Union Club de Irun vs Albacete (5)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Cartagena (6)
Las Palmas vs Huesca (5)

Spanish Segunda B:

Group 1:

Mirandes vs Sestao River Club (6)
Palencia vs Athletic Club de Bilbao II (7)
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo (7)
Montaneros vs Eibar (7)
Pontevedra vs Compostela (4)
Izarra vs Racing Club de Ferrol (6)
Lemona vs Zamora (5)
Deportivo Alaves vs Guijuelo (6)
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs Osasuna II (6)

Group 2:

Alcorcon vs Universidad Las Palmas (8)
Atletico Madrid II vs Lanzarote (8)
Real Racing Club Santander II vs Real Oviedo (5)
Cacareno vs Gimnastica Torrelavega (6)
Real Sporting de Gijon II vs Real Madrid II (7)
Tenerife II vs Leganes (6)
Cerro Reyes Badajoz vs Alcala Henares (6)
Puertollano vs Vecindario (6)

Group 3:

Gava vs Benidorm (8)
Denia vs Barcelona II (6)
Sant Andreu vs Badalona (9)
Sabadell vs Orihuela (6)
Logrones vs Valencia II (6)
Alcoyano vs Terrassa (8)
Sporting Mahones vs Lleida (7)
Atletico Gramenet vs Ontinyent (7)
Espanyol Barcelona II vs Villajoyosa (6)
Alicante vs Mallorca II (5)

Group 4:

Union Estepona vs Moratalla (7)
Sevilla II vs Real Murcia II (7)
Ecija Balompie vs Polideportivo Ejido (7)
Lucena vs Granada (7)
Ceuta vs Real Betis Balompie II (9)
Aguilas vs Marbella (6)
Atletico Ciudad de Murcia vs Jerez Industrial (7)
Sangerona Atletico vs Melilla (6)

Swiss Super League:

Aarau vs Bellinzona (6) 0-0
Basel vs Young Boys Bern (6) 1-2
Luzern vs Grasshoppers Zurich (7) 1-0

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Penarol vs Racing Club Montevideo (7) 2-1
Atenas vs Tacuarembo (5) 1-1
Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 2-2, at least one red card in this game

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Carabobo vs Yaracuyanos (5) 2-1
Deportivo Lara vs Atletico El Vigia (6) 2-1
Estudiantes de Merida vs Llaneros de Guanare (5) 1-0
Trujillanos vs Centro Italo (7) 2-0
Monagas SC vs Caracas (6) 1-2
Zamora vs Zulia (7) 2-1
Deportivo Italia vs Deportivo Anzoategui (8) 2-1
Mineros de Guayana vs Aragua (5) 1-1

Welsh Premier League:

Bangor City vs Rhyl (6) 2-2

Enjoy your free betting tips!