Today’s featured game is not the expected UEFA Champions League game but the Liiga Cup game in Finland between IFK Mariehamn and TPS Turku. Mariehamn have yet to convince entirely consistently in the Liiga Cup due to difficult opponents but their ability remains as constant as ever, particularly at home. TPS Turku have had a mixed start to their campaign too although they’re struggling having lost a whole host of players during the winter break.

Mariehamn have had a mixed start to the Liiga Cup campaign with one win, one draw, and one defeat so far. However, you have to bear in mind that their defeat was at the best side in Finland (HJK Helsinki) and their draw was at home to the second best side in Finland (FC Honka Espoo). Their win was a 2-1 win against FC Lahti although the win should have been more comfortable than was indicated based on their actual performance.

Mariehamn were consistent at home in the Veikkausliiga last season, remaining unbeaten at home for the whole campaign, winning eight times and drawing five times in their thirteen games. They averaged scoring approximately 1.5 goals per home game but their strength was in defence where they conceded just over a goal per two home games on average. They’re a big and physically strong side that also have ability, which makes them a very difficult opponent. Mariehamn know they can win this game; they’ve won it for two out of their last three home meetings with TPS Turku, drawing the other encounter. The scoreline was 2-1 in Mariehamn’s favour when the two met in the Liiga Cup last season and I expect a similar scoreline today for a strong Mariehamn side.

Visitors TPS Turku haven’t quite scaled their losses over the break as of yet with players still missing from this squad that are required to turn them into a good side. However, they’ve alleviated this issue somewhat of late with the addition of TPS Turku legend Jonatan Johansson. At 34, he’s no spritely youngster but he’s an experienced head and will be a valuable asset to their Veikkausliiga and Liiga Cup campaigns respectively. TPS Turku needed to improve other areas prior to attack but this signing will bolster their ranks considerably. TPS lost their opening Liiga Cup game away to FC Honka Espoo but won their second game at home to Inter Turku in the Turku derby so they’ve got some momentum to bring into this game.

Last season I’d have ranked TPS Turku just above Mariehamn. However, I’ve lowered them since then due to their loss of players and their manager so they’re now either on par with Mariehamn or just below them. The Liiga Cup has often been used to test out your rivals, to see where they stand in comparison to yourselves, and I think this game will have elements of that. However, Mariehamn’s strength at home has not waned, TPS Turku don’t have a good record here, and TPS Turku aren’t as strong as they were so you have to feel the value in the home win today.

Verdict: IFK Mariehamn to win at 23/20.

Wednesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Porto vs Arsenal – away win at 17/10.

This is a risky call and I can’t substantiate it as much as I’d like so bear with me!

Porto were unconvincing at weekend against a very poor Leixoes side. Porto dominated possession but failed to produce anything en mass barring a couple of one-on-ones which winger Varela managed to fuck up both times, the stupid prick. Porto just looked toothless and to be honest they’ve looked that way for a good portion of their Liga Sagres campaign despite some impressive performances being fused into the mix. They’ve got capable players but frankly they look lost without their summer players sold i.e. Lucho Gonzalez, Lisandro Lopez. I have high hopes for striker Falcao – I think he was a cracking signing – but Porto don’t look the same side as they used to. They’re still a formidable force at home, don’t get me wrong – that’s why they lose so few games at the Estadio do Dragao – but they’re not as good a side as they were when they record was at its peak so I do fear for them tonight. Hulk returns from his lengthy ban but to be honest I’ve never been convinced by him. He’s a tempremental player that tends to disappoint rather than excite and I actually imagine his return to spark more disgruntled players in the dressing room than soothed minds after a lack of innovation.

Visitors Arsenal are unfortunately missing little genius Andrey Arshavin. It’s a big loss for them because he’s the only world-class player that they have, in my opinion (yes, I don’t think Fabregas is world-class – sorry! he’ll never be the finished article until he leaves Arsenal for Barcelona where he has someone to learn from!). However, despite that and Arsenal’s obvious lack of strikers, they’re still a potent side. I’ve never come across a side more potent than Arsenal even when they’re short on strikers. That is Wenger’s exceptional brand of football and few sides do it better than Arsenal on their day. Their defence can be weak, I accept that, but Porto play a similar brand of football so neither side is going to have a massive advantage over each others’ defensive frailties.

Arsenal have a very good chance to nick this game 1-0 if they get that telling goal. Porto aren’t going to find it easy to get the ball off them, let alone score, particularly in their current frame of mind so it should be an interesting game. Porto are better than Arsenal on set pieces so the Gunners will have to be cautious but ultimately Arsenal play better football and I expect them to outscore their hosts tonight.

Verdict: Arsenal to win at 17/10.

Deportivo Cuenca vs Banfield – home win at 7/5.

Ah, now we return to the dizzying heights of Copa Libertadores football in lofty Ecuador!

You guys know my thoughts on Ecuador by now – no side goes there and wins! Deportivo Cuenca are arguably the third best side in Ecuador but one thing that they do both domestically and on the continent is win their home games. They’re very much the atypical home side and not many sides will convince them to part with their style. Deportivo Cuenca won seven out of their eleven home games in the first phase of Primera A last season and even reached the final of the Primera A (don’t even ask how this damn league works – too complicated to explain!) before eventually losing to reigning champions Deportivo Quito. It takes a good side and a good performance simultaneously for Deportivo Cuenca to lose their heads at home and that just doesn’t happen very often. When Deportivo Cuenca competed in the Copa Libertadores last season, they beat Caracas of Venezuela, Boca Juniors of Argentina, Deportivo Tachira of Venezuela, Guarani Asuncion of Paraguay, and Deportivo Anzoategui of Venezuela at home. They won every single game against both good and bad opposition because they’re damn good at home! I’ve not seen anything in their brief footballing moments this season to suggest that this home advantage will change either.

Visitors Banfield are still reeling from their loss of players over the break but to their credit its not showing fully. Their defensive prowess is seemingly still entact with just three goals conceded in four games in all competitions so far. Their potency has taken a bit of a knock but they’ve still managed to win three of those games. However, Banfield have beaten an out-of-sorts River Plate, a leaky Lanus, and have lost to a weak Chacarita Juniors side. Their win against Morelia was commendable but somewhat fortuitous. Don’t get me wrong – you can’t argue with luck when it’s there. However, I feel that Banfield are riding theirs an awful lot of late and they may just get caught out tonight.

Banfield haven’t played in this tournament since 2007 and they’ve not played well in this tournament since 2005, when they reached the quarter-finals. Therefore, they’re a little rusty entering this game and they’ve been unfortunately handed one of the toughest away games imaginable to get them back into the swing of things. As I’ve mentioned previously, Banfield aren’t convincing me yet and Deportivo Cuenca are good at home so after a spirited display at Club Nacional de Montevideo in their opening Copa Libertadores game, I’m backing Deportivo Cuenca to do the business tonight.

Verdict: Deportivo Cuenca to win at 7/5.

Universitario Lima vs Lanus – home win at 5/4.

Universitario Lima won their opening Copa Libertadores game 2-1 at Blooming Santa Cruz in Bolivia. This result will have given them some momentum to bring into this game as I can’t honestly believe that Universitario entered this tournament thinking that they’d win any of their away games, particularly looking at their opponents!

They followed up that impressive win by unimpressively losing at home to Inti Gas Desportes 2-1 in the Peruvian Primera Division. So where does that leave us? Well, domestic form is different to continental form (somehow!) so whereas it’s wise to take note of domestic happenings, it’s also worthwhile to bear in mind how consistently a side performs continentally. In the Copa Libertadores last season at home, Universitario Lima beat Libertad Asuncion of Paraguay, drew with San Luis of Mexico, and beat San Lorenzo de Almagro of Argentina. They only conceded one goal during those three home games against what I would call tricky opponents so Universitario certainly have my respect. Peru doesn’t get enough of a mention as a tough away trip, in my opinion, so I think Universitario are capable of springing a shock tonight.

Visitors Lanus play their part in the above call, naturally. They were good last season but this season have emerged as one of the weaker sides defensively and it’s hamstringing their results in a big way. Lanus have now lost four games consecutively in all competitions, scoring four times but conceding thirteen times, which simply isn’t good enough. Their 6-3 crushing at home dealt out by Argentinos Juniors was their pinnacle of despair, in my opinion, because Argentinos Juniors simply aren’t that good a side. Lanus were then defeated 2-0 at home by Paraguayans Libertad Asuncion in what I’d call an “inexperienced” and “ineffectual” Copa Libertadores display. Unfortunately for Lanus, they are somewhat inexperienced for this competition and much like compatriots Banfield, they have a very tough trip north tonight to a very difficult location. Peru is not to be taken lightly and I think Lanus will experience this first-hand tonight.

I think the key tonight is home advantage and experience in the competition, both of which favour Universitario Lima so I’m going to call a narrow home win here for the Peruvians.

Verdict: Universitario Lima to win at 5/4.

Liege vs Tubize – away win at 19/20.

Liege are currently bottom of the Tweede Klasse following a dismal campaign that has seen them lose fourteen out of twenty-one games already. They’ve won just twice this season and thus are deservedly bottom of the table. Liege have lost their last three games consecutively and haven’t even managed to score in their last four games, hence their lengthy list of issues. Liege are the lowest-scoring home side in the Tweede Klasse with four goals scored in ten games which largely explains why they’re yet to register a win at home whilst having lost seven out of eleven home games. They average conceding nearly two goals per game at home but frankly conceding an average of one goal per home game would be enough because Liege simply cannot score!

Visitors Tubize are in a barren spell themselves with no win in their last four games. Tubize’s problems, much Liege’s problems, largely stem from their inability to score goals. Tubize have registered just two goals in their past four games which explains why they’ve lost twice and drawn twice. They’ve played two difficult away games during that time and two easy home games but they’ve let themselves down more at home than away, in my opinion. Despite Tubize’s lack of current form, the fact is that they’re a capable side both in quality and on the road. Tubize have already won six away games in the Tweede Klasse this season so they know how to do it. They’ve also lost six away games so they know when they’re outclassed too! However, Tubize are frankly a better side than Liege so I expect to see them put a goal or two past the hosts tonight which ultimately should be enough to secure the win.

Verdict: Tubize to win at 19/20.

Once Caldas Manizales vs La Equidad Bogota – home win at 11/10.

Once Caldas Manizales have had a good start to their current campaign despit the statistics showing one win, one draw, and one defeat in their opening three Primera A games. They lost an epic game with Real Cartagena 4-3, which is acceptable because Once Caldas are an atrocious away side. They drew at Deportivo Pereira – yet another tough away game so another respectable result. They beat Envigado 3-1 at home, which was somewhat expected, but also managed a trip to Paraguay in between these games in the Copa Libertadores where they emerged 2-0 victors from a tie with Nacional Asuncion, a result which impressed me. Once Caldas only lost one home game in their last domestic campaign so they’re a capable home side. Their four wins in nine games were largely symbolic of a lack of goals as they didn’t concede many goals at home at all. However, they’ve now scored nine goals in their last four games in all competitions so potency isn’t an issue and momentum is growing with each game so it’d be foolish to overlook Once Caldas for this game tonight, in my opinion.

Visitors La Equidad Bogota were the second-lowest scoring away side in the Primera A in their last campaign along with Atletico Junior Barranquilla, which largely explains why they failed to win any of their away games. They lost four times and drew five times with their goals conceded record being double the amount of goals scored so I consider them rather fortunate to have drawn more than they had lost! This season La Equidad have performed as you’d expect them to really – losing away to Atletico Junior Barranquilla, drawing at home to Deportivo Pereira, and overcoming Deportes Quindio. La Equidad simply aren’t a very good side – they’re average at best – and tend to rely on keeping other sides out rather than scoring themselves. La Equidad can be a tough side to break down but when you do it you generally beat them.

All Once Caldas Manizales need to do to win this game is to score, in my opinion. La Equidad will enter this game focused entirely on defence as their attack is a little ineffectual the majority of the time but a potent Once Caldas Manizales really should be able to break them down. La Equidad have been a bogey side for Once Caldas for some years now but I think it’s time for a change with the hosts playing some good football at the moment.

Verdict: Once Caldas Manizales to win at 11/10.

Recommended bets:

Bayern Munich, KVSK United, and Deportivo Cuenca at 6/1.

Atletico Junior Barranquilla, Newcastle United, and Once Caldas Manizales at 5/1.

Notts County, IFK Mariehamn, and Arsenal at 8/1.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

UEFA Champions League:

Bayern Munich vs Fiorentina (8) 2-1
Porto vs Arsenal (6) 0-1

Copa Libertadores:

Deportivo Cuenca vs Banfield (7) 2-1
Universitario Lima vs Lanus (6) 1-0

Belgian Tweede Klasse:

Brussels vs Oostende (6)
Lierse SK vs Dender (6)
Ronse vs Boussu Dour Borinage (4)
Mons vs Red Star Waasland (7)
Liege vs Tubize (7)
Tournai vs Eupen (6)
Tienen vs Turnhout (5)
KVSK United vs OH Leuven (8)
Standaard Wetteren vs Antwerp (7)

Colombian Primera A:

Boyaca Chico vs Deportivo Pereira (5) 1-1
Deportes Quindio vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (6) 0-0
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Millonarios Bogota (8) 2-1
Cucuta Deportivo vs vs Deportes Tolima (5) 1-2
Once Caldas Manizales vs La Equidad Bogota (8) 1-0
Atletico Huila vs Envigado (7) 1-1
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Real Cartagena (6) 1-0
America de Cali vs Cortulua (7) 2-1

Cypriot Division 1:

Ermis vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (7) 1-1

English Premier League:

Wigan Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers (7) 1-1

English Championship:

Newcastle United vs Coventry City (8) under 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace vs Reading (6)

English League Two:

Notts County vs Grimsby Town (8)

Finnish Liiga Cup:

IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku (7) 2-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Karlsruher SC vs 1860 Munich (6)

Mexican Primera Division:

Atlante vs Jaguares (5) 1-0
Estudiantes Tecos vs Monterrey (6) over 2.5 goals
Pachuca vs Guadalajara (6) over 2.5 goals
Cruz Azul vs Morelia (6) 1-1
Puebla vs San Luis (6) 2-0
Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM (7) 0-0
Atlas vs Indios (8) 1-0
Toluca vs America (6) 1-1

Dutch Eredivisie:

NEC Nijmegen vs Willem II (7) 2-1

Scottish Premier League:

St.Johnstone vs Hibs (6) 1-1

Singaporean S-League:

Etoile vs Sengkang Punggol (6) 1-1

Spanish Segunda B:

Mirandes vs Lugo (6)

Enjoy your free betting tips!