Stade Lavallois vs Metz

Today’s featured game is the Ligue 2 encounter between Stade Lavallois and Metz. It’s not often I find value in this league but hopefully that will prove to be the case tonight! Both sides are expected to be amongst the sides fighting for promotion this season but I feel that only Laval will be as you’ll see below.

The only reason Laval weren’t able to be promoted last season was that they didn’t win enough home games, which is probably why the odds are as generous as they are. They only suffered three defeats in nineteen games but when coupled with just six wins along the way, the record doesn’t look as good. You could argue that Laval didn’t score enough goals on a consistent basis or that they conceded too easily when compared to their supposed contemporaries. However, my own personal belief is that they succumbed in games that were important to the club i.e. their 3-3 draw at home to Metz last season when they should have been more composed and won the game. So – have Laval resolved that problem since last year? Not in my eyes, no. They have strengthened their squad with a couple of relatively unknown players (i.e. Chad striker Labbro and former Plabennec striker Crehin) to try to solve the problem so we’ll see what affect they have. They’ve also acquired Frederic Mendy from Bastia and he’s an experienced midfielder so should add to their squad. All in all, I’m expecting a similar campaign from Laval but if they make more of their home games then they could find themselves in Ligue 1 next season.

My interest for this bet lies largely with Metz, however. Why? Well, Metz have had a cataclysmic summer and find themselves in a financial ruin and have thus parted with some important players like defender Vivian, midfielders Rocchi, Johansen, Cardy, and Pied, not to mention striker Mendy! That means that now both Cisse and Mendy have left Metz so who will bail out this fairly impotent Metz side? Metz don’t travel well as it is but how is that record going to improve without someone to score the goals for them? Metz still have a decent enough side to hold their own part of the time but their squad is so thin on the ground and lacking in goals that I can’t take them seriously this year. I expected them to struggle at home to Evian in the first game, which is why I called a draw, but I didn’t think they’d lose 2-0. Metz have a lot of problems at the moment and I don’t think a difficult Laval side is the best to face with that in mind.

The last two meetings between these two sides have ended 3-3 at Laval and 3-2 to Metz at Metz so both sides tend to play out a good game. However, with Metz short on goalscorers and Laval having remained fairly constant since last year, I have to favour the hosts tonight, especially with such generous odds on show.

Verdict: Stade Lavallois to win at 27/20.

Friday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Colon de Santa Fe vs Banfield – away win with draw no bet at 7/4.

One look at the head-to-head records will show just why this is easily my riskiest call of the day so far but I still have faith in the selection. Why? Well, two reasons really. I have a lot of time for Colon de Santa Fe; I think they’re a good side. They’ve made some good signings over the transfer window and should be a threat this season. However, their draw at Quilmes last match after an unpolished display left me wondering how long it’s going to take this side to gel. The loss of Nieto to Atletico Paranaense in the transfer window leaves just one-half of their lethal duo still entact, which is thirty-seven year old striker Esteban Fuertes. Colon have brought in players to replace Nieto but I just don’t see that atypical “united front” effort from Colon at the moment and think this type of game may have come too soon for them. Banfield bring the same squad that they had last year into this game although with a further year’s experience so they should be a title threat year again. They weren’t at their best at home to newly-promoted Olimpo last match but still held their cool as usual to come from behind and glide to victory without really having to get out of second gear after a particularly abject display from the newcomers. Banfield are marginally the better of these two sides, in my opinion, and although they don’t travel well as a rule, I think they’ve got a chance to change that tonight. Head-to-heads drastically favour the hosts so do approach with caution but odds of 7/4 on the away win with draw no bet look good enough to take a chance on tonight.

Verdict: Banfield to win with draw no bet at 7/4.

Audax Italiano vs Union San Felipe – home win at 5/6.

Audax Italiano have really turned a corner since appointing Labruna as boss nine games ago and are actually unbeaten since then. It’s a difficult job to coach Audax Italiano because of their fans and their players. Basically, they don’t want to follow any kind of tactics whatsoever. This side is the most exciting side in Chile because they don’t defend at any point in any game; they simply attack from start to finish which is why they score and concede so many goals. They’ve got a poor home record in the Primera A this year because they leak goals too easily but Labruna has given them a lease of life again with four consecutive home wins since taking over. Mauro Olivi in attak is responsible for most of Audax Italiano’s damage and is pretty instrumental to their attacks although I won’t be losing sleep if he’s missing – Audax attack with or without strikers! Audax have scored twelve goals in their last three games to give you some idea of how potent they are and also won this fixture away from home already this season so don’t be fooled by their misleading home record so far this year – they’re a very good side indeed. Union San Felipe have punched above their weight this season by defending in a shrewd and calculated manner. However, they’ve still lost five out of nine away games this season with an average of just over a goal scored per away game. Whether San Felipe turn up or not tonight, the massive momentum of Audax says they definitely well and to stop them at the moment you need to score at least three goals, something San Felipe frankly aren’t capable of. The odds on the home win could and should be much shorter than 5/6 – it’s only the misleading statistics of the season thus far for Audax that has them as long as they are so the home win looks something of a gift in this game tonight although I’ll warn you now – this game isn’t for the faint-hearted (if you want to watch it, of course!).

Verdict: Audax Italiano to win at 5/6.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Istra 1961 – home win at 6/5.

The Prva Liga table after three games would have you believe that this is a clash between the two worst sides in Croatia at the moment but I don’t wholly agree with that. Istra 1961 have ridden their luck for some time in this division and I think the time has come for them to finally be relegated this season following a disappointing summer with little money and nobody to drag them out of the mire that they’re always in. Their form so far this season shows that with an average of three goals conceded per game and just one goal scored so I think Istra 1961 are more than capable of losing against anyone in this league with their impotence playing a huge role in that opinion. Hrvatski Dragovoljac, however, I feel have been a little unlucky. They’re new to the division and have had a baptism of fire with away games against giants Dinamo Zagreb and Rijeka, losing both comfortably as you’d expect from 80% of the Prva Liga sides. They lost 1-0 at home to Lokomotiva Zagreb but to be fair, the hosts dominated the game and only a late goal for the visitors won them the game. I won’t deny that the newly-promoted hosts aren’t a great side by any stretch of the imagination. However, they’re a better side than Istra 1961 and whilst they do have issues with goalscoring themselves at the moment, they at least look like they’re going to score, unlike Istra 1961. This should be a close and low-scoring affair but I think the odds on a Hrvatski Dragovoljac win are a little too generous here to be overlooked.

Verdict: Hrvatski Dragovoljac to win at 6/5.

Marila Pribram vs Sparta Prague – over 2.5 goals at 5/4.

This is a risky call that goes against my natural instinct regarding Pribram as an unders side but there is method to the madness, more commonly known as Tomas Repka. I’m sure the majority of you are familiar with the Czech hitman centre-back who has earned a reputation over the years as a complete wanker solid and dependable defender. He’s ageing a lot now but he holds the Sparta Prague defence together and without him, they look rather vulnerable. Well, good news everyone – he misses this game through suspension following an uncharacteristic incident against Slovacko whereby he felt it necessary to show his love for Volesak by spitting on him. This is the final game of his ban (unless the Czech FA extend it) and Chovanec will be keen to have him back in the Sparta side, particularly as he’s already confessed that this will be a difficult game for Sparta. They’ve struggled at Pribram in the last couple of years because of the defensive tactics of the hosts. However, Sparta’s 4-0 win against Banik Ostrava mid-week gives them momentum to take into this game. They’ve increased their creativity with the capture of experienced midfielder Vachousek on a six-month loan deal from Teplice (which fucks Teplice up a little bit more!) and with their potency looking strong at the moment, I fancy them to shatter a stiff Pribram resolve. Pribram are no mugs and will line up defensively here but I feel an early goal for either side could really liven this game up. Sparta have the goals in them and Pribram are solid enough at home to score at least once, particularly against a Sparta side missing Repka. Incidentally, Sparta also miss Vacek, Husek, and Kusnira for this game although none of those are recent news anyway.

So rather than back the obvious away win at what I can only describe as short odds, I’d much rather take the more elusive and risky over 2.5 goals call. My calculations do include a Pribram goal so approach with caution but a Sparta side without Repka can concede against anyone so I think over 2.5 goals today is an interesting but potentially good value selection.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/4.

JJK Jyvaskyla vs KuPS Kuopio – away win at 31/20.

This looks like a really obvious away by the statistics and in the Veikkausliiga, that’s never good news. In fact, the mere thought of how much the statistics back up my selection actually terrifies me! However, I’ll give it a shot as there should be value here…

First of all, JJK’s home record in the Veikkausliiga this season doesn’t reflect them at all. They’re not a great side; they’re a battling side and they don’t normally lose at home. However, moving to a new stadium placed some kind of bizarre curse on them and they lost their first four matches of the season without even scoring a goal. A 6-1 thrashing of AC Oulu temporarily removed the curse but it was restored with back-to-back defeats against VPS Vaasa and Tampere United, which again, JJK didn’t score in. They claimed a 1-1 draw at home to MyPa Anjalankoski last match, which is only the second game they’ve scored in at home this season so I can’t imagine them being too down-hearted for this game. Nonetheless, they do bring an atrocious record into this match because they’re not scoring goals and I can’t help but feel that it stems from South Korean striker Ik-Kyung Nam’s departure at the start of the season as he moved to Haka Valkeakoski. He had a terrific debut season for JJK and although his strike partner Lahtinen has remained at JJK, JJK have struggled to find a regular replacement for Nam with Kari and new signings Linjala and Hyyrynen both really failing to fill the void despite contributing with goals this season. Ultimately, JJk’s problems lie in goalscoring and not necessarily in the statistics side of things, which I do feel is unfair on them as I mentioned earlier. Not scoring goals is a big problem, of course, and for that reason I expect them to struggle against KuPS Kuopio today.

As KuPS’ season wears on, I find myself utterly fascinated with their ability to still be near the top of the Veikkausliiga. Two seasons ago, they were one of the worst sides in the Veikkausliiga and now they’re a comfortable mid-table side that are drastically over-achieving but are playing well enough to earn it. KuPS aren’t a HJK Helsinki or a FC Honka Espoo but they’re a very tenacious side and they’ve brought a lot of goals to their games this season, which is why they’re doing so well. I’d argue that they’ve played better on the road this season than they have at home, in fact! Fuck the statistics – I’m talking about actual performances here. 50% of away games won maybe isn’t as impressive as you might want to see but consider that three of those victories came in their last four games and they came against Jaro Pietarsaari, HJK Helsinki, and Inter Turku. Two of those sides are a lot better than KuPS and the other has a very strong squad this year so KuPS have very much earned my respect this year. Their African contingent has really done them proud this year with Nwakaeme leading the line in attack and Ollo and Udah playing very well in midfield. African players have a massive impact in this league because their relentless pace and tenacity is somewhat un-Finnish, if you like, which is why RoPS Rovaniemi have so much joy in the Ykkonen – they have a lot of African players. KuPS have this advantage over JJK and indeed over a lot of sides and I personally feel that’s why they’re doing so well this year. KuPS is a side that is much like JJK in that there are no stars but there’s a lot of workers. The fact is, however, that KuPS are a better version of JJK, particularly this season, and this is yet another great time for them to show it.

Since JJK Jyvaskyla were promoted into the Veikkausliiga for the 2009 season, they’ve played KuPS Kuopio four times – three times in the Veikkausliiga and once in the Liiga Cup – and they’ve lost all four games. They’ve lost three trips to Kuopio and one home game but each time they’ve found that their battling qualities do not give them an advantage against a battling and superior KuPS side. With the above in mind, I can only side with the away win at very generous odds today although I have to emphasise caution purely from a superstitious point of view because if something has to happen in the Veikkausliiga, it generally doesn’t happen at all!

Verdict: KuPS Kuopio to win at 31/20.

Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Vannes OC – home win at 10/11.

You don’t find it often in European football at all but Evian Thonon Gaillard have an advantage today that is more commonly found in South America – altitude advantage. Gaillard is situated between 1286 and 1394 feet above sea level, which is pretty damn high up if you’re used to playing at the average height above sea level in France! Evian enjoyed a great deal of succes in the French National because of this with fifteen wins in nineteen home games, losing just once along the way. Either the bookies know this or they simply looked at the statistics because they’ve priced the game quite well despite Evian being new to the division. However, Evian also have quality on their side too as they demonstrated with a 2-0 victory at giants Metz in their first Ligue 2 game ever, although it has to be noted that the victory was largely contributed to by their goalkeeper Laquait producing an inspired display. Evian have a lot in their favour today, to be blunt!

Vannes OC are a side capable of giving them a good game, usually. However, they’re not without problems themselves at the moment. An unconvincing win against newly-promoted Troyes in their opening Ligue 2 game of the season did little to improve my opinion of them and their missing players for tonight’s game (Kamissoko, Guillon, Delhommeau, Mezague etc.) leave me wondering how the thin squad of Vannes will cope, particularly at this altitude. Vannes’ problem last season on the road was scoring goals and I see little to change my mind from the mindset of them having not improved upon their lack of potency. They’re a decent enough side and could stifle the hosts today but I see more favouring the hosts than the visitors currently.

This should be a fairly close and low-scoring game today but odds of 10/11 on the home win appeal to me although I’d leave it if it drops further.

Verdict: Evian Thonan Gaillard to win at 10/11.

Montedio Yamagata vs Albirex Niigata – away win at 5/4.

Montedio Yamagata are a J-League side that has long outstayed their welcome in this division with perpetually negative football and defensive displays. They’re only still in this division because they don’t concede many goals at home and although it works for them, I still don’t enjoy it! They’ve only lost twice in eight home games this season because they’ve leaked just six goals, a record which only giants Kashima Antlers can better. Montedio rarely score goals themselves but by not conceding, they always have a chance of stealing a win. However, they’re facing something of a bogey side today – Albirex Niigata. Niigata have won two consecutive visits to Yamagata and beat them at home back in May so they certainly have the mental advantage here. Niigata are the better side too, which I find always helps! Niigata are also on a good run of form with three wins and one draw from their last four games, scoring at least twice in all of those games, one of which was against giants Kashima Antlers. Niigata have broken down some very resolute defences easily in those games and that’s what they’re up against today so it’s nothing out of the ordinary for them.

Effectively, a good tactical display from Niigata really should leave us with an away win today and the odds are decent enough to take it.

Verdict: Albirex Niigata to win at 5/4.

Dordrecht ’90 vs Cambuur Leeuwarden – away win at 21/20.

Forget everything you knew about the Eerste Divisie for this season. Very few of the sides remain entact following a financial nightmare over the summer for the vast majority of the clubs in the division. Some sides were docked points, some sides were relegated etc. and a lot of them lost big players. However, one of the few sides that have endured quite well is Cambuur, who although have lost some good players, still boast one of the better line-ups in the division, despite their squad being smaller as a result of financial difficulties. They still have former Girondins de Bordeaux goalkeeper Stanley Menzo in charge and he did a good job last year so I think one of the few sides that should remain consistent with last season’s displays should be Cambuur Leeuwarden. Dordrecht have revamped their side too much over the summer to present a stable side against Cambuur tonight, in my opinion. Hefty losses like Van Der Sloot and Verhoek are going to hurt them despite replacements having been signed. It’s going to take time for this side to gel and it’s shown in their friendlies too with their only three wins coming against part-time opposition. This game is not the start that Dordrecht would want at all and I therefore think there’s value on the away win tonight as a result although I’d leave it if drops below evens.

Verdict: Cambuur Leeuwarden to win at 21/20.

Polonia Warsaw vs Legia Warsaw – home win with draw no bet at 5/6.

The bookies have priced this game very well indeed with Polonia Warsaw’s rapid ascent to power and Legia Warsaw’s perpetual place within power in the Ekstraklasa. Legia had an atrocious campaign last time around and have duly made a lot of changes over the summer to bring in new players and looked good because of it against Arsenal in a friendly lately, although eventually losing the game 6-5, bizarrely. This should be a very good game indeed and I’m actually a bit annoyed that it’s so early in the season because it could have been even better.

Either way, I’m favouring the “underdogs” Polonia Warsaw for this one. Bakero has done a terrific job there and he’s made good signings. They were dominant against newly-promoted Gornik Zabrze in their opening game and should carry confidence from that game into this one as a result. New signing Sobiech scored on his official debut and although he’s a minor doubt for Polonia for this game, they still have a very strong squad. Polonia miss Jodlowiec through injury and Ebi Smolarek through a lack of match practice, although it looks a shread acquisition for Polonia long-term. More importantly on the team news front, Legia have problems with their goalkeepers since Jan Mucha joined Everton with both Antolovic and Makchnowskyj failing to inspire a confident display from their defence and thus Legia are weak in that area. Legia also miss captain and holding midfielder Vrdojlak for this game too and without leadership in the side, derbies can be very testing occasions indeed.

Lastly (and most amusingly), there won’t be any Legia fans at this game. Basically, the two clubs had some brief but funny negotiations for the ticket allocation of this game which went alarmingly close to something like this:

Legia Warsaw: “We want 1500 tickets for this game”
Polonia Warsaw “A good idea…if you’re an idiot. We’ll give you 300″
Legia Warsaw “No, we want 1500″
Polonia Warsaw “Ok, you can fuck off then”

So basically, there are only Polonia Warsaw fans at this game, which makes it a little more intimidating for the giants Legia, particularly in their first Ekstraklasa game of the season and I think they’ll be caught out as a result. It should be a very tight game indeed between two very good sides but for me, the value is with Polonia although I’m not yet brave enough to back the straight win here as Legia are a somewhat unknown factor for this year’s Ekstraklasa currently. It’s also worth noting that Polonia haven’t lost at home to Legia in their last three home games, winning their most recent visit 1-0 in a do-or-die battle against relegation last season.

Verdict: Polonia Warsaw to win with draw no bet at 5/6.

Odra Wodzislaw vs Gornik Leczna – home win at 31/20.

This is a very risky call; don’t go thinking this is the same Odra Wodzislaw that were relegated from the Ekstraklasa last season! They lost a lot of players in the summer as Odra’s board decided to restructure the club financially and rely on youngsters for the future rather than continually being in debt. Therefore, their aim for promotion to the Ekstraklasa is long-term rather than this season so approach with caution when betting on them this season. Indeed, their financial troubles are so bad that they actually had to have a “whip-round” amongst local businessmen to afford to travel to Poznan to face Warta last match. However, this problem can have two affects; it can either destroy a club or galvanise them and considering that they won 2-1 at a good and potent Warta side, I’m going to say that it’s galvanised the club and given them some momentum ahead of this game. Their visitors Gornik Leczna are a stubborn side but the newly-promoted outfit lack one thing more than anything else; goals. They’re very wasteful with their chances and as such, they’re a good side to bet against in general. Both sides should be rather low-scoring this year as both prepare for long and gritty seasons. However, with Odra so long to win this game, there has to be some value in this game today. Both sides should fight this one out to the death but I’m banking on Odra’s win last match pushing them through to win this game today as they’re a tad longer than I would price them at for this game.

Verdict: Odra Wodzislaw to win at 31/20.

Braga vs Portimonense – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.

This one speaks for itself, really. Braga destroyed Celtic at home already this season in European competition despite being somewhat rusty on the competitive front, winning the game 3-0 and eventually qualifying for the next round of the UEFA Champions League Qualifiers 4-2 on aggregate. As loyal user Toffeeboy mentioned in his preview yesterday, Braga have brought in some good players and kept hold of their backbone so expect a marginally better overall display from Braga in the forthcoming season. Braga aren’t a team of stars, in my opinion, but they work extremely well together and rarely condede, especially at home, so they should give newly-promoted Portimonense a nightmare tonight. Portimonense had a good financial backing in the Liga de Honra last season but have struggled over the summer and parted with players, bringing very few in too. They basically look like sitting ducks against title challengers Braga tonight and the scoreline should really reflect it too, especially with Portimonense travelling quite poorly in the Liga de Honra last season, let alone the Liga Sagres!

I’ve not looked too favourably upon Braga over the past season or so; I’ve been rather suspicious of their overall level of ability, especially as influential manager Jorge Jesus left to join SL Benfica before the start of last season.. However, I’m extending them an olive branch here and backing them to beat the handicap at decent odds tonight because they really should totally outclass Portimonense and win the game comfortably.

Verdict: Braga to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at evens.

Kriens vs Locarno – home win at 3/5.

Kriens are too long here, in my opinion – I’d price them much shorter against an appalling Locarno side. In their three games so far this season, Locarno have still only managed to score one goal. Without wanting to be too blunt, it’s because they’re a really shit side. The only side they’ve scored against is a weak Stade Nyonnais side that will be battling against relegation with them. Locarno have lost at home to newly-promoted Chiasso and away against recently-relegated Aarau, although it should be noted that Aarau parted with a lot of players and field a very young squad in the Challenge League as a result. Locarno aren’t conceding many but when they do concede, they lose because they don’t score goals and they don’t score goals because they sold Swiss striker Rossini to Schaffhausen and Argentinian striker Senger to Lugano over the summer. Consider that those two strikers scored twenty-nine of Locarno’s overall forty-six goals last season and you’ll see why Locarno are in real trouble this year. 

Kriens have won their home game against Locarno for three seasons running now and have interestingly beaten the -1.5 goal handicap each time, their most recent win ending 6-2.  They’ve looked very good this season with wins against good Yverdon Sport and Winterthur sides respectively, as well as giving Challenge League giants Lugano a run for their money before losing 2-0. Kriens are very much a goalscoring side and have happily held on to Tadic over the summer, who was their leading goalscorer last season. Kriens were strong at home last season without being dominant because they conceded too many goals. They’ve not done much to counter that problem but their potency is just as high, if not higher, so expect a stern test from Kriens against whoever they face. Kriens shouldn’t have problems with the opponents scoring in this game of all games, especially with Locarno’s goalscoring ability virtually zero, so the home win here looks a mere formality here and should be closer to 1/3 than 3/5 in my eyes.

Verdict: Kriens to win at 3/5.

Accumulator fodder:

Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota, Le Mans, St Patrick’s Athletic, Shamrock Rovers, Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast, KamAZ Nab Chelny, Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod, Kuban Krasnodar, Kriens, CFR Cluj, Braga. 

Recommended bets:

Audax Italiano and Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota at 2/1.

Kriens and KuPS Kuopio at 3/1.

Stade Lavallois, and Le Mans at 3/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Colon de Santa Fe vs Banfield (4) 0-1, draw no bet

Australian A-League:

Wellington Phoenix vs Gold Coast United (5) 2-1
Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Heart (6) 1-1

Chilean Primera Division:

Audax Italiano vs Union San Felipe (7) over 2.5 goals

Colombian Primera A:

Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Envigado (8) 2-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Istra 1961 (6) 2-1

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Marila Pribram vs Sparta Prague (6) over 2.5 goals

Danish 1st Division:

Naestved vs HB Koge (6) both sides to score

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 1-1
El Nacional Quito vs Espoli Cayambe (6) 1-0

English League One:

Leyton Orient vs Charlton Athletic (5)

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

JJK Jyvaskyla vs KuPS Kuopio (7) 0-2

French Ligue 2:

Angers SCO vs Boulogne (6)
Clermont Foot vs Dijon FCO (6) over 2.5 goals
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Vannes OC (6)
Istres vs Tours (6)
Stade Lavallois vs Metz (7)
Le Mans vs AC Ajaccio (8)
Nimes vs Chateauroux (4)
Troyes vs Nantes (6)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Grenoble Foot (4) draw no bet

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Zalaegerszegi TE vs Lombard Papa (6) 2-1
Vasas Budapest vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 0-1

Irish Premier League:

Bohemians vs Galway United (7) 2-1
Bray Wanderers vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (8) under 2.5 goals
Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers (8) 1-2
Sporting Fingal vs Dundalk (6) 0-0

Japanese J-League:

Montedio Yamagata vs Albirex Niigata (7) 1-2

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Banga Gargzdai vs Zalgiris Vilnius (5) 1-1

Mexican Primera Division:

Necaxa vs Queretaro (5) 2-1

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Almere City vs RBC Roosendaal (5)
Eindhoven vs RKC Waalwijk (6) over 2.5 goals
Telstar vs Veendam (6)
Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport (6)
MVV Maastricht vs Volendam (5)
Emmen vs Zwolle (6)
Dordrecht ’90 vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (7) over 2.5 goals
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Fortuna Sittard (5)

Peruvian Primera Division:

Melgar FBC vs Universitario Lima (6) 1-1

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw (6) 1-0
Polonia Warsaw vs Legia Warsaw (5) 2-1

Polish 1st Liga:

Gornik Polkowice vs Kluczbork (5)
Odra Wodzislaw vs Gornik Leczna (6)
Lodzki KS vs Piast Gliwice (6)
Katowice vs Warta Poznan (5)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Braga vs Portimonense (8) -1.75 handicap

Romanian Liga:

CFR Cluj vs Astra Ploiesti (8) under 2.5 goals
Gloria Bistrita vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (6) 1-1

Russian Division 1:

Dinamo St.Petersburg vs Mordovia Saransk (5)
Irtysh Omsk vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (6)
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Rotor Volgograd (8)
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs Avangard Kursk (8) -1.5 handicap
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Salyut Belgorod (9) -1.5 handicap
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs FK Krasnodar (7) under 2.5 goals
FK Khimki vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (5)
Baltika Kaliningrad vs FK Nizhnyi Novgorod (6)
Dinamo Bryansk vs Zhemchuzhina Sochi (5)
Kuban Krasnodar vs Energiya Khabarovsk (8) under 2.5 goals

Swiss Challenge League:

Kriens vs Locarno (8)
Schaffhausen vs Yverdon Sport (6) over 2.5 goals

Ukrainian Premier League:

Zorya Lugansk vs Illichivets Mariupol (5) 2-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Metz vs Nantes

Well, I’m back on my old computer as it’s partially functional so hurrah! I’m also pleased to see the return of the Swedish Allsvenskan and Norwegian Eliteserien as I tend to do well in those leagues. That’s a sure-fire way to curse all of my future bets in those leagues but that’s the way it is!

Before I begin today’s preview, I feel a strong need to vent my frustrations at fellow Manchester United fans. I’m a season ticket holder and was there yesterday as we swept aside Fulham in what I’d probably call our best performance of the season so far. However, some fucking idiots booed Oliver Gill, who is the son of David Gill, who was on the bench. This really pissed me off and that’s still applicable as you’re reading this. They’re booing the son of someone who they think has done something wrong because the papers say so – eh? Anyone see a problem with that? There aren’t many fans I hate more than my fellow Manchester United fans because the biggest club in the world naturally attracts the biggest number of idiots, which is unfortunately the way it is. They hate the debt and form their yellow-and-green protest bullshit but don’t seem to realise that Manchester United aren’t in debt – their parent club is. The Glazers have tripled turnover since arriving at Manchester United and have not only spent a fortune on players but have guided Manchester United to two Champions League finals (winning once), three consecutive Premier League titles, and two Carling Cups. Now, I’m all for dealing with problems but the above really doesn’t strike me as being a “problem” – I don’t know about the rest of you! So this bloody campaign to get people out who have done nothing wrong is utter nonsense and booing a young player before he’s even made his debut and for no reason whatsoever is absolute fucking bullshit – grow up!!

Today’s featured game is the Ligue 2 game between Metz and Nantes. Metz are currently third in Ligue 2 and are in a good vein of form. Nantes have done quite well since appointing a new manager but are still woeful on the road so should struggle tonight.

Metz have long been a dominant force at home and this season is no exception. Metz have already won nine out of thirteen home games in Ligue 2 this season and have only been beaten once along the way. They’re not a traditional freescoring side but they still average scoring over 1.5 goals per home game. This statistic is aided by the fact that they boast one of the best defensive records in the division at home with just eight goals conceded in thirteen games. It takes a great deal to score a goal at Metz and even moreso to hang onto it to claim at least a point so sides tend to struggle here. Metz are unbeaten in their last six games, winning four times, which is a great confidence-booster for them. Atypically, Metz struggle on the road but they’re won two out of their last three away games which tells how just how seriously Metz are taking their promotion push. Metz have won their last two home games consecutively and have scored five goals along the way so they’ve got everything in their favour to take the game to Nantes tonight. 

Nantes have won two games since appointing a new manager which is a good start and one that they frankly needed to get away from an unthinkable relegation. However, they have lost their only away game 2-1 against high-flying Nimes which prolongs their run of consecutive defeats on the road to seven games. This run won’t last forever, of course, but this does leave them looking weak on the road with eight defeats in thirteen away games. Nantes average conceding over two goals per away game and have only scored nine goals on the road all season, hence their issue. In fact, only the bottom three clubs in the division have scored less goals on the road than Nantes so it’s easy to see why they struggle.

Although you wouldn’t know it from the league table, there’s really not very much difference between these two sides in terms of quality – they’re simply polar opposites with form, unity, and composure. Nantes appear to be missing big Ivan Klasnic (currently on loan to Bolton Wanderers) as a target man on the road and it’s hindering their dispalys. Don’t go thinking that this will be a walk in the park because Metz are doing well this season because I suspect it won’t be – Nantes are a good side. However, Metz are dominant at home, they’re well-organised, and have even added potency to their list of favourable characteristics so they look a real force at the moment. I think the bookies have priced the game well, all things considered, but there’s definitely value in the home win tonight.

Verdict: Metz to win at 4/5.

Monday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Chernomorets Burgas vs Beroe – home win at evens.

Hosts Chernomorets Burgas had a superb start to their A PFG campaign but were poor towards the end of the first half of their campaign and have returned in similar fashion. They need to start winning to push away from the drop zone and they’re frankly good enough to do it. Their problem has been goalscoring of late and they’ve lost their two games following their return from the winter break consecutively as a result of their goal-shy displays. However, Chernomorets are in a prime position to get themselves back on track today on their own turf. They’ve been solid at home this season with five wins in eight games so they should be reliable enough to win today.

Visitors Beroe have struggled to adapt to the A PFG following promotion and are battling relegation as a result. Their home form has been their saving grace as they’re bizarrely one of just two A PFG sides yet to lose a home game despite that list not including the giants of this league – CSKA Sofia, Levski Sofia, and Litex Lovech – so the hosts are capable. They don’t score many goals but their water-tight defence tends to hold firm against a barrage of attacks so they can be reliable. However, away from their home comforts, Beroe have lost five times in eight games this season. They average conceding nearly two goals per game and average scoring less than a goal per game. They held giants CSKA Sofia to a 0-0 draw at home in their last game but again, that result was at home. The fact is that Beroe struggle on the road and should struggle again today.

I’m expecting a tight game between two sides that are just about equal currently due to lack of form and/or lack of ability. Frankly, it should be a very boring game – tedious, even! However, Chernomorets Burgas are a good side and their league placing doesn’t reflect that, fortunately. Although their form has been poor and they’re not scoring enough goals, a leaky Beroe defence should allow them sufficient chances to win the game today and Beroe’s woeful away form should allow the hosts to make off with all three points. As I mentioned previously – this should be a tight game so do approach with caution but I simply feel Chernomorets Burgas are too good for Beroe today.

Verdict: Chernomorets Burgas to win at evens.

Notts County vs Bournemouth – home win at 5/6.

Notts County enter this game on the back of four consecutive wins and are unbeaten in their last six games. Not only are Notts County showing how prolific they can be of late but they’re also showing their defensive prowess at the same time which is a highly dangerous combination for opposing sides. The money behind Notts County is ensuring that they’re too good to be in this division, which I feel is correct already, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them promoted this season. Notts County have scored ten goals in their last four games and haven’t conceded a single goal along the way so they’re frankly frightening opponents at the moment. They’ve been solid at home this season with ten wins in sixteen home games and average scoring over two goals per home game whilst boasting the best defensive record in the division at home as they’ve conceded just ten in sixteen games. With such strong momentum behind them and everything else in their favour, it’s hard to go against Notts County tonight.

Visitors Bournemouth are a very capable side themselves but they’ve looked stretched in the latter stages of their League Two campaign. They’re generally quite strong away from home but they’ve lost six out of seventeen away games this season, which is more than any of their contemporaries in the top five of League Two – it’s just too many. Bournemouth’s away defeats have largely come recently with three defeats in their last five away games, losing their last two consecutively without even scoring a goal. Bournemouth’s strength tends to be at home but they’ve even struggled there in recent times so Bournemouth aren’t playing their best football at the moment.

Although both of these two sides are capable sides, the only one that looks the part currently is Notts County. Notts County have strength in depth, tremendous defensive stability, and are potent to boot. They’re in great form, they’re reliable at home, and have more than enough in their favour to do the damage tonight. Bournemouth aren’t playing well enough on the road of late to trouble Notts County so we should see a good home win tonight although I’m not expecting many goals in this encounter.

Verdict: Notts County to win at 5/6.

Grosseto vs Mantova – home win at 10/11.

Grosseto have won three out of their last four games so bring some good momentum into this game. They’ve been good at home with eight wins in fourteen games whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game. Grosseto’s failing tends to be in defence where they’ve conceded a horrific twenty goals this season – more than any other side in the top half of Serie B. That said, Grosseto have won four out of their last five home games so they do tend to be reliable at home. I’m a little concerned that when Grosseto lose concentration in games, they tend to suffer ridiculous results i.e. their 4-0 defeat at home to Crotone in their last home game. However, when they’re focused, they’re a strong side like the side that won 3-2 at Brescia last match, which is arguably the hardest away game that a Serie B side can face. I appreciate and support Grosseto’s attacking style of football, something that is quite rare in a division – and indeed a country - which is based around tactical supremacy and low-scoring games but their defending (or lack of) does bother me a little. Nonetheless, momentum and potency do support the hosts and they’re good at home so I think they’ll cause problems tonight.

Little Mantova are a good side but largely in defence. They’ve lost seven out of thirteen away games this season but still have a presentable defensive record on the road with their failing being in front of goal rather than keeping others away from theirs. Mantova are doing their utmost to stay in Serie B and I hope they do as I’ve developed a soft spot for them. They’ve only lost two out of their last five games so they’re doing well in their battle against the dreaded drop to Serie C. However, Mantova’s two defeats have come on the road, which means they’ve now lost three consecutive away games and have conceded six goals along the way – an average of two per game. With Mantova struggling to score goals and conceding so easily away from home, it’s hard to see how they’ll take anything from a potentially difficult trip to Grosseto tonight.

My fears over Grosseto’s lack of defensive ability take a backseat for this game as I expect them to be pressing Mantova for the vast majority of this game. Mantova have been pressing more away from home which is why they’re conceding more goals than normal and unfortunately for them they don’t have the luxury of the choice today with points being needed. This suits us well as Grosseto can score against anyone and should do so freely tonight. Mantova don’t score enough away from home but concede enough to lose this game so the odds on the home win look good value tonight.

Verdict: Grosseto to win at 10/11.

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna – lay Atletico Madrid at evens.

Atletico Madrid are 8/11 to win this game; why? They’ve got some superb individuals but as a team they’re as lacking as their bitter rivals Real Madrid!

Atletico Madrid have had a season to forget which explains why they’re twelfth in the Primera Liga. They’ve only won half of their home games this season, drawing three times and losing three times – not really the record of a big side. Atletico Madrid average scoring two goals per home game but have conceded more goals at home than any of the eleven sides above them in the table, hence their issues. Atletico Madrid turn up sporadically and don’t get me wrong – when they do they’re a very good side, particularly with the outstanding Sergio Aguero in their ranks. However, they’ve drawn at home to nine-man Sporting Clube de Lisboa in the UEFA Europa League, drawn at Real Zaragoza thanks to a last-minute equaliser, and have even lost at Almeria all in their last five games so it’s easy to see how bad this side can be. Aside from the above, Atletico Madrid do have a particularly difficult trip to Portugal in just three days time against an extremely in-form and potent Sporting Clube de Lisboa side so it’s hard to imagine that Atletico Madrid will be desperate to win this game tonight with nothing left to play for domestically.

Visitors Osasuna are a very well-organised side if nothing else. They’ve lost their last two away games consecutively but they’ve done so in their usual battling style, eventually going down to a 1-0 defeat at a difficult Sevilla CF and losing 3-2 in an epic game with north Spain rivals Sporting Gijon. Osasuna have lost seven out of thirteen away games this season so they do struggle away from their Pamplona stronghold but they have a very solid defence, which is the foundation of all their good results. They’ve conceded just seventeen in thirteen away games this season so Atletico Madrid will have to be patient and creative to take down Osasuna tonight and I simply feel that the hosts are too rash to do so. Osasuna are without a win in four games but they are a notorious bogey side for Atletico Madrid and are definitely due a result. Osasuna have only the league to focus on whereas Atletico Madrid’s eyes will be on the UEFA Europa League crown as without it they’re unlikely to be in European football next season due to an atrocious domestic campaign. Frankly, an organised Osasuna should be able to avoid defeat here rather easily with the proviso that Atletico Madrid don’t sporadically turn it on although they’re undeniably capable of it.

Atletico Madrid have a bizarre weakness against Basque sides that I can’t quite explain. I don’t know if it’s because the Basque sides are well-organised or tenacious or perhaps both but Atletico Madrid haven’t beaten Osasuna in their last four meetings at either ground, losing all of them, and have lost their last two games at home to Athletic Club de Bilbao. Atletico Madrid don’t like playing against this type of side and I think they’ll be caught out tonight – it may even be worth a cheeky punt on the away win!

Verdict: Lay Atletico Madrid at evens.

Accumulator fodder:

Besiktas JK

Recommended bets:

Metz, Besiktas JK and Notts County at 6/1.

Grosseto and laying Atletico Madrid at 4/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Bulgarian A PFG:

Chernomorets Burgas vs Beroe (7) 1-0

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Brno vs Banik Ostrava (7) 0-0

Danish Superligaen:

AGF Aarhus vs Silkeborg (6) 1-1

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Barcelona Guayaquil vs Deportivo Quito (7) 1-0

English Premier League:

Liverpool vs Portsmouth (7) 2-1

English League Two:

Notts County vs Bournemouth (7) under 2.5 goals

French Ligue 2:

Metz vs Nantes (7) under 2.5 goals

German Bundesliga 2:

MSV Duisburg vs 1860 Munich (6) over 2.5 goals

Greek B Ethniki:

Anagennisi Karditsas vs Olympiakos Volos (6)
Thrasivoulos vs Ionikos Nikaias (5)

Italian Serie B:

Grosseto vs Mantova (7)
Albinoleffe vs Triestina (6)

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Emmen (4)
Veendam vs Dordrecht ’90 (5)

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Valerenga Oslo vs Viking Stavanger (5) 2-1

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Pacos de Ferreira vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 0-0

Singaporean S-League:

Sengkang Punggol vs Armed Forces (7) 1-2
Albirex Niigata vs Gombak United (5) 1-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna (4) 1-2

Swedish Allsvenskan:

Gefle vs Elfsborg Boras (6) 1-1
Orebro vs Atvidaberg (4) 1-1
GAIS Goteborg vs Malmo (6) 0-1

Swiss Challenge League:

Biel-Bienne vs Wohlen (7) over 2.5 goals

Turkish Super Lig:

Denizlispor vs Besiktas JK (8) 1-2

Enjoy your free betting tips!