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Minior Pernik vs Lokomotiv Sofia

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Today’s featured game is the A PFG encounter between Minior Pernik and giants Lokomotiv Sofia. Not a lot is expected of the hosts this year and their early season form supports that thus far. To be honest, compared to the usual high expectations of Lokomotiv Sofia, they’re also expected to be a non-entity this season.

However, the reasons for both clubs having low expectations differ in a big way. Minior Pernik are a mid-table side at best and generally only manage to stay in the A PFG because of their solid defence. That said, Minior Pernik just don’t score enough goals in general and that’s reflected by the fact that their midfielders tend to score more goals than their strikers. For example, consider that Minior Pernik’s Serbian midfielder Goran Jankovic finished the season as Minior Pernik’s top goalscorer last season and you’ll see what I mean. Minior Pernik’s strikers Iliev and Nikolov did manage to score goals last year but nowhere near enough to keep the club progressing. Unfortunately for Minior Pernik, promising youngster Iliev departed for CSKA Sofia in summer and Nikolov left for Pirin Blagoevgrad in summer so Minior Pernik are desparately short on strikers. They’ve brought in Rangelov to partner consistently low-scoring ex-Litex Lovech striker Kostadin Hazurov but it’s not a partnership that is going to flourish; there simply isn’t enough goals there. Jankovic is getting older too, so they can’t rely on his goals from midfield forever. Indeed, Minior Pernik’s midfield in its entirety is full of battling, able, and ageing players so it’s not the swiftest of sides. Minior Pernik therefore tend to line-up defensively and try to counter their opponents, which worked quite well for them last year but with no genuinely good strikers and an ageing midfield to support them, I can’t take their attack seriously. Their defence is as strong as it was last year and yet a poor start has seen the hosts leak seven goals in three games, which isn’t good enough at all when you consider that that total is over a quarter of what they conceded in the entirety of last season despite only playing three out of thirty games this year. To their credit, they’ve still scored in each game despite being the losing side and having problems in attack but it’s no use at all if you don’t take points and three consecutive defeats says that Minior Pernik are not ready to start taking points off good sides so they should struggle today.

Lokomotiv Sofia’s expectations have been lowered this year because their transfer activity saw more exits than introductions. Their most notable departure was Martin Kamburov, who formed a lethal partnership with Genkov and Asamoah that sides really struggled to deal with in attack last season. However, he left the club in summer to join Chinese outfit Dalian Shide and Lokomotiv are almost certainly going to struggle without him as he was a key part of their side. They also waved goodbye to important defenders Bandalovski and Dzaferovic so Lokomotiv aren’t at their best currently. However, one of the players they did sign – Pisarov from Beroe – was a good acquisition to their midfield so it’s not all doom and gloom for the Sofia giants. Genkov and Asamoah are still a threat in attack with the towering Genkov often linking up well with the pacey Ghanaian. Lokomotiv’s problem this year will be when either one of those two players is missing or if they’re trying to hold leads against good sides because of their transfer activity and that ultimately leads me to believe that they’ll fail to acquire a European place this season unless some swift action is change throughout the course of this season. Nonetheless, Lokomotiv still boast a squad capable of finishing in the top six and I’d be surprised to see anything other than that, to be honest. Lokomotiv may have changed their manager but their squad is still largely good in essence so I think they’ll still be a force to be reckoned with to a certain degree.

Lokomotiv have already won two games this season, albeit against weak opponents, thus showing that they’re still capable of taking sides apart if they wish. Given that Minior Pernik are conceding goals for fun at the moment, Lokomotiv surely have to take the initiative here and press their opponents’ weaknesses. Lokomotiv’s defence isn’t at its best so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Minior Pernik score at least once today but Lokomotiv’s attack is far better so I do think they’ll win this game. Lokomotiv have a terrific record when playing at Minior Pernik with six consecutive wins here, although they’ve only met twice here since Minior Pernik regained their place in the A PFG a couple of years ago. The only time Minior Pernik have taken points off Lokomotiv since they were promoted was last season in Sofia and they rode their luck then with Kamburov missing a penalty in that 1-1 draw. All in all, Lokomotiv are still the better of these two sides and with the defensive frailities of the hosts all too obvious to see, I have to favour the away win here at good odds. 

Verdict: Lokomotiv Sofia to win at 23/20.

Monday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Torpedo Zhodino vs Dinamo Minsk - under 2.5 goals at evens.

I’d atypically be all over the handicapped away win for this game had Dinamo Minsk not got a key home game with Belgium’s Club Brugge looming large in a few days time so I’ve changed perspective slightly; I now favour under 2.5 goals. Why? Well, Torpedo Zhodino are going from bad to worse, conceding goals for fun and barely looking to join in the fun themselves with just one goal scored in their last four Vysshaya Liga home games whilst they’ve conceded thirteen goals along the way. The departure of bullish striker Pavel Beganskiy to Kazakh outfit Tobol Kostanai will hurt them immensely as they now lack a striker good enough to play in this divison, in my opinion. Therefore, three consecutive defeats and a shambolic defence says that Zhodino are bound for the division below but that doesn’t mean they should be completely written off. Zhodino’s only strength was always defence which is why six out of Dinamo Minsk’s last eight trips here have gone under 2.5 goals. Dinamo Minsk annihlated Torpedo Zhodino 5-1 in Minsk earlier this season but times have changed since then; Dinamo are resting players for their important game in a few days time. Dinamo’s 4-5-1 should prove unbreakable against an impotent Zhodino side despite players being rested; it’s their goalscoring that should be affected. All season long, Dinamo have performed well on the road due to clinical finishing and a well-organised defence but they won’t be operating at full capacity, as I’ve said, so I don’t expect a highly-polished display from the giants today. I think Zhodino will battle as well as they’re able to in this game but Minsk should just edge it by a narrow scoreline as they’re simply superior and keep the ball well so taking under 2.5 goals here (despite Zhodino’s terrible defence) could be a good bet today.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.

Valerenga Oslo vs Sandefjord – under 2.5 goals at 31/20.

This is a very bold call considering how many goals Valerenga score at home but it’s based entirely on one thing; the stubborn defence of Sandefjord. Yes, Sandefjord are bottom of the table but the sole reason they’re there is because they don’t score goals; their defence is very good. Sandefjord have conceded less goals away from home than at least half the division have – an average of just under two goals per away game – so don’t let their league placing fool you there. However, the prospect of Valerenga’s terrifying attack laying siege to the Sandefjord defence does concern me as Abdellaoue is in terrific form this season and the hosts average scoring over three goals per home game currently. However, looking at their recent form (albeit in away games), Valerenga have struggled to break down two resilient sides; Aalesund and Haugesund respectively. Again, both were away games so not an awful lot can be read into those games but what we have seen is that Valerenga failed to score in both games but conceded in both so they may struggle against a tough Sandefjord outfit today. Valerenga actually lost at home to Sandefjord last season and two out of their previous three home games with Sandefjord went under 2.5 goals. Valerenga only claimed a narrow 1-0 win at Sandefjord earlier this season and with Sandefjord having gone under 2.5 goals in five consecutive away games in the Eliteserien (despite trips to Rosenborg BK, Molde FK, and Viking Stavanger to name a few) I think it’s fair to give them their chance today. Providing Valerenga don’t get an early goal in this game, I think the odds on this game going under 2.5 goals look a little bit too generous today so that’s my call here although caution is obviously endorsed given the potency of Valerenga’s attack.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 31/20.

Accumulator fodder:

FC Honka Espoo, Breidablik Kopavogur, Valerenga Oslo, Shamrock Rovers.

Recommended bets:

FC Honka Espoo, Breidablik Kopavogur, and Valerenga Oslo at evens.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:

Torpedo Zhodino vs Dinamo Minsk (7) under 2.5 goals

Bulgarian A PFG:

Minior Pernik vs Lokomotiv Sofia (7) 1-2

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Teplice vs Slavia Prague (6) 1-1

Danish Superligaen:

Midtylland vs Nordsjaelland (7) 2-1

English Premier League:

Manchester City vs Liverpool (6) 1-1

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

FC Honka Espoo vs JJK Jyvaskyla (8) 2-0
KuPS Kuopio vs VPS Vaasa (7) 2-1

Finnish Ykkonen:

HJK II vs FC Espoo (4)

German Bundesliga 2:

VFL Bochum vs 1860 Munich (6)

Icelandic Urvalsdeild:

Breidablik Kopavogur vs Haukar Hafnarfjordur (8) 2-0
Keflavik vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (4) 1-1
Valur Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Fram Reykjavik vs Selfoss (6) 2-1

Irish Premier League:

Sporting Fingal vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (5) 1-1
Drogheda United vs Bohemians (7) 0-1
Shamrock Rovers vs UCD (8) 2-0

Italian Serie B:

Torino vs Varese (4)

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Zwolle vs MVV Maastricht (7)

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Valerenga Oslo vs Sandefjord (8) under 2.5 goals

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Rio Ave (7) 2-0

Romanian Liga:

Brasov vs Unirea Urziceni (5) 1-0

Swedish Allsvenskan:

Orebro vs AIK Solna (6) 2-1
GAIS Goteborg vs Brommapojkarna (5) 0-0
Halmstad vs Malmo (6) 0-1

Swedish Superettan:

Jonkopings Sodra vs Brage (6)
Ljungskile vs Trollhattan (6) under 2.5 goals
Osters vs Hammarby (5) draw no bet

Swiss Challenge League:

Wil vs Wohlen (6)

Turkish Super Lig:

Kasimpasa vs Bucaspor (4) 0-0
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahce (5) under 2.5 goals

Enjoy your free betting tips!

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio

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Today’s featured game is the Liga Sagres encounter between SL Benfica and Naval de Maio. Despite disappointingly (and somewhat strangely) losing to Sporting Braga last weekend, SL Benfica have bounced back with a mid-week victory in England against Everton in the UEFA Europa League. I can’t see SL Benfica needing momentum to beat Naval de Maio either way but it’s still useful to enter a game after you’ve won the previous game. I’m quite happy to write off the Sporting Braga defeat as “just one of those days” as SL Benfica were very unfortunate on the day with quite a number of things, almost too many things you might say, if you were of the suspicious type…which I am. Anyway, the firepower of SL Benfica is frankly worthy of a better league at the present time, such is its efficiency in destroying sides. I mean, the giants of Portuguese football have scored twenty goals at the Estadio de Luz so far this season, which is a terrifying average of five goals per game! They’ve won three from their four home games this season and have only conceded three goals on this crazy run! SL Benfica, to put it bluntly, are looking the best side in Portugal at the moment in my opinion, and I fully expect them to show this again tonight. Visitors Naval de Maio are actually doing well at the moment with three wins from their last four games. However, in that time they’re not come across a side with the deadly attack of SL Benfica, although I have to give credit for their impressive win at Maritimo to start this particular run off. Naturally, the struggling Naval de Maio are largely taking points at home and this is perfectly illustrated by their away record, which reads played four, lost three, won one, scored twice (both in the same game), conceded eight. Effectively, they’re atrocious on the road and currently average conceding two goals per game on the road, although I expect that margin to increase if SL Benfica turn it on tonight. I’m not normally a fan of the bigger handicaps like this but I feel this fixture has all that it needs to see SL Benfica win the game with a -2.75 goal handicap at 7/4.

Monday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio – home win with -2.75 handicap at 7/4 – see introduction for full details.

Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi – home win at 23/20. This match is between two sides that are really struggling in the Argentinian Primera Division. However, as I’m sure you’re all aware, the sides in these predicaments tend to win their home games due to their poor away form, hence the predicament that they’re generally in! Eat your heart out, Freud! Anyway, Huracan have managed to win two of their six home games this season already, drawing once and losing three times, which is a decent home record at best. However, more encouragingly Huracan haven’t lost any of their last three home games. They’ve beaten Racing Club Avellaneda 3-1 a few weeks ago and have since drawn with River Plate and beaten Rosario Central without even conceding a goal. Huracan are certainly set in their ways at home and are starting to make it a fortress. Visitors Arsenal de Sarandi have performed quite well lately with two wins in their last three games. Needless to say, however, those wins were at home. Their away form shows they’ve lost their last three away games and have conceded eight goals on that run too. Arsenal de Sarandi’s away form in general is poor with four defeats and one win from five away games this season with them averaging over two goals per away game conceded. Bluntly, this should be a real dogfight of a game but there’s enough favouring Huracan here for me to take them at 23/20.

Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen – lay Slavia Prague at evens. I find it quite baffling that Slavia Prague aren’t hitting their stride yet but I’m here to take advantage of this fact so I’m going to attempt to do so here. Viktoria Plzen have been punching above their weight all season long but credit given where credit is due – they’ve only lost twice on the road in seven games and are unbeaten in their last five games now. The predominant reasoning behind this fact is that Viktoria Plzen rarely concede goals, something they’ve done only four times in their seven away games, which is less than any other Gambrinus Liga outfit. Hosts Slavia Prague are one of the daddies in this league but they’re simply not showing it currently. I thought they’d be weakened after their losses this time around but I didn’t expect them to be quite as weak as they have been. They’ve lost three of their last four games and only managed to score three times in those games. To say that Slavia Prague look out of sorts would be an understatement. Viktoria Plzen haven’t taken a point from here since 2006 but they’ve got the best chance that they’ll ever get to do that today so I’m laying Slavia Prague at evens.

Liverpool vs Birmingham City – under 2.5 goals at evens. I don’t think I need to explain to you all the situation at Liverpool at the present time. They’re not playing good football, they are missing leader Steven Gerrerad and Fernando Torres (who is doing his best to carry them) is playing through the pain barrier. A draw at Olympique Lyonnais last week will have damaged their morale as they’re effectively out of the UEFA Champions League, barring a miracle. Their attention must now return to their league game with Birmingham City, who impressed at home to Manchester City in their last game but failed to score and gain a deserved victory. Birmingham City’s story in the Premier League so far could very well be titled “Playing well; not scoring”, which is effectively what I expect to happen again here tonight. I don’t think Liverpool are great but they really should have enough to get a goal or two here whereas I can’t see Birmingham City doing what they’ve only done four times away from home this season and scoring a goal. For me, taking under 2.5 goals at evens should be a good bet tonight.

AEK Athens vs Larissa – lay AEK Athens at 7/5. There’s an awful lot going on behind the scenes at AEK Athens still and they’re not producing the goods as a result of it. They’ve not won in their last five games in all competitions, games which have included a draw at home to Belarus’ BATE Borisov in the UEFA Europa League and draws away to Aris Salonika and Ergotelis respectively in the Super League. The fact that they’ve won just three games out of nine this season speaks volumes regarding the club’s current demise. Visitors Larissa are a capable side despite what their league placing may suggest. Larissa also enter this game with good momentum after a three-match unbeaten run that has seen them claim two victories and one draw. I personally consier Larissa as a top seven side that aren’t too different from AEK Athens so I think backing Larissa to do what they did here two seasons ago by avoiding defeat at 7/5 could turn out to be a very good bet indeed tonight.

Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax - over 3.5 goals at 6/5. These two crazy Swiss sides have already scored sixty-seven goals between them in just fifteen games each, which is an average of over two goals scored per game for both side. Basel’s form of late and overall ability suggests that they’ll win this game but there’s not a lot of value in that other than as accumulator fodder. However, the fact that they score nearly three goals per game at home on average and that Neuchatel Xamax score nearly two goals per game away from home appears to suggest that we’re in for a heavy goalscoring session tonight. I’d be happier if Neuchatel Xamax were in better form to give them a better chance of scoring more goals but frankly I’m happy with this bet nonetheless. Lastly, games between these two sides have gone over 3.5 goals for four out of their last six encounters so taking over 3.5 goals at 6/5 here tonight could be an inspired bet!

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi (7) 2-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Minior Pernik (6) 1-1

Cypriot Division 1:

APOEL Nicosia vs APEP (9) -1.75 handicap

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen (5) 1-1
Slovacko vs Sparta Prague (7) 0-1

English Premier League:

Liverpool vs Birmingham City (7) under 2.5 goals

English Championship:

Barnsley vs Sheffield United (6)

English FA Cup:

Millwall vs AFC Wimbledon (8) 2-1

French Ligue 2:

Nantes vs Guingamp (8)

German Bundesliga 2:

Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock (7)

Greek Super League:

AEK Athens vs Larissa (5)

Greek B Ethniki:

Ionikos Nikaias vs Thrasivoulos (5) draw no bet

Italian Serie B:

Torino vs Lecce (6)

Norwegian Tippeligaen/Adeccoligaen Play-Off:

Sarpsborg vs Kongsvinger (6)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio (10) -2.75 handicap

Romanian Liga:

Steaua Bucharest vs Unirea Alba Iulia (8) under 2.5 goals

Swiss Super League:

Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax (8) over 3.5 goals

Swiss Challenge League:

Lugano vs Kriens (7)

Enjoy your free betting tips!