Today’s featured game is the Romanian Liga game between Unirea Urziceni and Pandurii Targu Jiu. Fallen giants Unirea are now battling relegation following financial meltdown and the loss of many key players whereas Pandurii are seemingly working themselves away from the relegation zone with much-improved recent displays.
I can undertand the long odds on this selection from a statistical approach, especially when you look at the head-to-head meetings too. However, a lot has changed since last season and I don’t think the odds reflect that nearly as much as they should.
Unirea Urziceni actually lost no fewer than twelve of their first-team squad over the past few months due to their chairman departing and the club struggling for money. You have to appreciate that Unirea are not a big club here – they’re a small club from a small town but were financially supported by a wealthy chairman. However, those twelve players moving on has done terrific damage to Unirea, as you’d expect, really. They lost number one goalkeeper Arlauskis, defenders Galamaz and Bordeanu, midfielders Paraschiv, Brandan, Marinescu, Onofras, and Ricardo, and attackers Bilasco and Neaga. There’s a lot of ability and experience in those players and Unirea are naturally a mere shadow of the side that they were without those players. Even if they somehow manage to stay up this season, I doubt that they’ll be in the Liga next season. With the above in mind, it’s no surprise that Unirea have only won once in their last nine games in all competitions, beating newly-promoted Sportul Studentesc 2-1 at home lately. As shown above, however, Unirea cannot score goals and cannot defend due to the departed players so it’s no surprise either that they’ve now conceded for four consecutive home games (despite playing three poor away sides) and have only averaged scoring a goal per home game for those four games. All I’ll give in the favour of Unirea today is that their home games still give them a boost due to the intimidating nature of this small town and it’s been enough for a vastly under-strength Unirea side to keep scoring at home despite not really having the quality to do so so I wouldn’t look at the away win here on the sly.
However, that said, I wouldn’t put it past a new-look Pandurii Targu Jiu to sneak a win here. Pandurii understand what Unirea are going through all to well in the sense that most of their players played for International last season, who went bankrupt and thus Pandurii bought their license and now the International players play for Pandurii. That in itself caused problems for today’s visitors to begin with but the recent appointment of Grigoras as boss has improved Pandurii an awful lot. Pandurii were just a defensive side who aimed to keep scorlines respectable with rarely any real ambition. However, Grigoras is attack-minded and suddenly Pandurii have been transformed into a side that won’t lie down and be walked over anymore. Pandurii have scored for five consecutive games in all competitions now, scoring nine times along the way, and that’s a highly impressive record for a former defensive side! Admittedly, most of those goals have come at home but they’ve made three away trips during those five games, scoring at high-flying Vaslui, goal machines Rapid Bucharest, and tenacious Universitatea Cluj so I think Pandurii deserve a little more respect here than the bookies are giving them. Pandurii’s away record in the Liga is drab on all fronts this season but as I said earlier – I wouldn’t pay much attention to it as this Pandurii side is not the one that started the season.
I therefore feel that the bookies have given rather generous odds here. Unirea’s losses make them relegation fodder with no real defence left and Pandurii’s new manager has transformed them into an attacking side that scores goals. I wouldn’t like to enter the 1×2 market here; Pandurii could sneak it but so could a determined but lacking-in-quality Unirea side. However, the market of both sides scoring looks far too generous at 21/20 so that’s my call today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 21/20.
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Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Den Bosch vs Zwolle – away win at 11/10.
On paper, Den Bosch’s goalscoring power is frightening. In reality, new signing Verhoek is carrying them. Den Bosch aren’t really in a position to break into the promotion favourites because they’re not good enough although in their defence, they’re not far off either. They’re a hard side to face with confidence in their favour – what side isn’t? - but without it, they reveal their true colours, which is what has happened lately. They’re without a win in four consecutive games and in my opinion, if Den Bosch are as good as the table suggests that they are, then at least three of those results are unacceptable. Losing at home to Volendam without scoring – not good enough as goalscoring is their only asset. Losing 3-1 at an AGOVV side bereft of quality – terrible result. Drawing at home to a good but very out-of-form Go Ahead Eagles – not good enough. Bluntly, Den Bosch aren’t scoring goals and they’re not playing well so it’s a catch twenty-two scenario here. Either way, this fixture isn’t welcome at all right now and I think that’ll show by the final whistle.
Zwolle have been threatening to break out of the Eerste Divisie for years now and I think they may finally achieve it this year. They’ve notched up twelve wins in fifteen games, which is a phenomenal record. They’ve scored an average of well over two goals per game whilst conceding less than a goal per game on average – two very good aspects for any side. Most sides do well with only one of those features but sides that have two (especially in the Eerste Divisie) must be taken very seriously indeed. Zwolle have already won six out of eight on the road this season and have won two out of their last three visits to face Den Bosch so I fancy them quite a lot here, especially on the back of seven consecutive Eerste Divisie wins. They’ve smashed home an impressive seventeen goals in five games despite facing tricky trips to Eindhoven and Go Ahead Eagles along the way. This Zwolle side is in impeccable form with outstanding confidence so I have to give them a shot here, especially with Sjoerd Ars in the form of his life!
Although Den Bosch can cause problems here and although Zwolle are going to have to play well to win this game, I still think there’s value in the away win, especially given the polar opposite form guides here. Den Bosch can score enough to trouble Zwolle in this game but with Zwolle looking frankly immortal at the moment, I have to recommend the away win at 11/10.
Verdict: Zwolle to win at 11/10.
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Deportivo La Coruna vs Hercules Alicante – home win at 11/10.
Deportivo have suffered with financial issues in recent years and are thus more likely to be battling relegation than even getting close to the European places. However, the reason for their poor start to the season was their lengthy injury list, which is beginning to shorten now. They’re still missing the likes of Juca and Guardado and Riki, all of which are important players for them, so you won’t see them at their best for a while. However, I’m sure you’ve all noticed the recent good form of the hosts with four wins, one draw, and just one defeat in their last six games and that is due to their returning players so be wary here!
I think it’s fair to say that mighty Riazor has awoken once more. Deportivo have won three consecutive home games now, scoring eight goals along the way and conceding just once. It’s helped them massively to have ex-Athletic Club de Bilbao goalkeeper Daniel Aranzubia back as they miss him something rotten when he’s not there. Aythami resumes his place in the side, as does Seoane, so suddenly Deportivo are starting to have some depth back. This team is a lot different to the idiots who somehow lost at home to the Primera Liga’s worst side currently – Almeria – at the start of the season and they’re back with a vengeance. Deportivo lack what I call a “proper” striker without Riki but emerging striker Adrian is deputising rather well although his goals tally isn’t as high as Deportivo could do with it being. Nonetheless, this team at the Riazor is always a force and Deportivo have beaten Espanyol, Osasuna, and Malaga very easily at home lately, which aren’t easy sides to beat by heavy scorelines and this is without Deportivo’s main striker available. The return of talisman Valeron in midfield has done Deportivo the power of good mentally and creativity-wise so I think Deportivo are well-placed to do some damage against their fellow relegation-battlers Hercules tonight, particularly with an impressive three goals conceded in their last six games in all competitions.
Visitors Hercules Alicante are a battling side themselves and not one I take lightly. However, their defeat in Barcelona against Espanyol lately summed them up perfectly; they battled hard, possibly played well enough for the draw, and lost resoundingly due to bad decision making, temperament issues, and an impotent attack. Let’s face it – Hercules’ only real threat in attack is Trezeguet as Haedo-Valdez is the engine to support him. The loss of Drenthe in midfield for this game isolates their already-distant attack even moreso tonight and with Farinos still out with his long-term injury, not to mention Sendoa, you have to wonder where Hercules are going to create goals from in midfield. Trezeguet will score if you give him the chance but who will make it happen? Aguilar?! No chance – he’ll be sat back, clattering the likes of Valeron to stamp his presence on the game and to be fair, Hercules absolutely need him to do that – Riazor is a formidable venue, even for the biggest of sides. The one advantage I can give Hercules is that their defence does have experience so young Adrian will have to work hard to do damage against them tonight. However, Hercules aren’t in the best of places mentally at the moment and I think even their defence are feeling it. They won 3-1 at home to fellow newly-promoted club Levante last match and that gives them some momentum at least but look at their away record – three defeats in four away games, drawing the other encounter, which was the only game they scored in out of those four, incidentally. In each game that they’ve lost (at Getafe, Osasuna, and Espanyol respectively), Hercules have been drubbed 3-0. Now I respect Osasuna and Espanyol at home; they’re very hard sides to take points off, but neither side is capable of scoring three goals at home unless there is terrible defending. It’s the same story each week though – they play decent, they work hard, and get drubbed from stupid errors and not taking their chances. Riazor is not a welcoming venue for any side so how Hercules hope to get anything here without a drastic improvement is beyond me.
My biggest concern here is that Deportivo won’t score because that is their one focal problem area. However, they’ve had no trouble smashing better sides than Hercules in recent weeks so I have to give them chance tonight as Hercules are simply woeful on the road. I therefore think 11/10 is too long on a Depor win so the home win is my call here.
Team news – Deportivo La Coruna miss Riki, Juca, Ze Castro, Rodriguez, Guardado, Michel, and have doubts over Tomas whereas Hercules miss Drenthe, Sendoa, and Farinos.
Verdict: Deportivo La Coruna to win at 11/10.
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Accumulator fodder:
Porto, Lausanne Sports, Vaduz.
Recommended bets:
Porto, Lausanne Sports, and Deportivo La Coruna at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Cypriot Division 1:
Ermis vs APOP/Kinyras (6) 1-0
Danish Superligaen:
Lyngby vs Midtylland (5) 2-2
English Premier League:
Liverpool vs Aston Villa (5) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
Le Mans vs Troyes (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum (6)
Italian Serie A:
SSC Napoli vs Palermo (6) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
Excelsior Rotterdam vs NAC Breda (6) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Den Bosch vs Zwolle (7) over 2.5 goals
Volendam vs Eindhoven (6) over 2.5 goals
Emmen vs Dordrecht ’90 (6) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Fortuna Sittard vs Almere City (5)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar (7)
Veendam vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (6) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Porto vs Vitoria Setubal (8) -1.5 handicap
Romanian Liga:
Unirea Urziceni vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (5) both sides to score
Steaua Bucharest vs Universitatea Cluj (7) under 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Deportivo La Coruna vs Hercules Alicante (7) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Lausanne Sports vs Stade Nyonnais (8)
Vaduz vs Winterthur (8) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Kayserispor vs Eskisehirspor (7) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!